Jjsms vol.2 no.3 june 2020

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 2, Number 3 June, 2020
i

Geospatial Analysis of Crime Incidence in Bayelsa West Senatorial District, Bayelsa State, Nigeria
ii
Editorial Board Members
Editor-In-Chief: Prof. Emeka D. Oruonye, Department of Geography,
Taraba State University, Jalingo.
Editor: Dr Chiakaan G. Jacob, Department of Mass
Communication, Taraba State University, Jalingo.
Deputy Editor: Dr Jev Amos Asongo, Department of Public
Administration, Taraba State University, Jalingo.
Associate Editors: Prof. Joseph S. Rishante, Department of Mass
Communication, Taraba State University, Jalingo.
Dr. Akombo Elijah, Department of History, Taraba State
University, Jalingo
Secretary: Prof. Patrick Oromareghake Oroborome, Department of
Political Science, Taraba State University, Jalingo
Assistant Secretary: Gabriel Iornumbe Yina, Department of Political Science,
Taraba State University, Jalingo
Business Manager: Dr. Miftahu Idris, Department of Economics, Taraba State
University, Jalingo

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Editorial Advisory Board
i. Prof Abdulsalam Jibril Dept of Business Administration, Adamawa State
University, Mubi
ii. Prof Sam Tende Dept of Mass Communication, Nasarawa State University,
Keffi
iii. Prof Mrs Madueme, I.S. Dept of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka
iv. Prof Umaru Pate Dept of Mass Communication, Bayero University, Kano
v. Prof Ada Okau Dept of Sociology, Kogi State University, Anyigba
vi. Prof Abbas Bashir Dept of Geography, Modibbo Adama University of
Technology, Yola
vii. Prof John Sambe Dept of Mass Communication, Veritas University, Abuja
viii. Prof David Irefin Dept of Economics Federal University, Lokoja
ix. Prof Terkura Tarnande Dept of Political Science, Benue State University, Makurdi
x. Prof Ayuba Haruna Kuje Dept of Geography, Nasarawa State University, Keffi
xi. Prof. Vitalis Torwell Dept of Mass Communication, Benue State University,
Makurdi

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Editorial Note
The Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences (ISSN 2659-0131) is a bi-annual
peer-review publication of the Faculty of Social and Management Sciences, Taraba State
University, Jalingo.
Aim and Scope
The journal which is multi-disciplinary in nature, aims to inspire robust intellectual and
scholarly debates, theorizing and research on issues in the gamut of the social and
management sciences. The journal aims at the promotion of innovative research in the field
of social and management sciences as well as providing a platform for the sharing and
dissemination of information between the academic, professionals and business world.
Each issue of the journal is designed to inform researchers and practising managers and
policy makers on current and emerging developments in the social and management
sciences and their practical applications to problems of the global world. Papers are
carefully selected to provide readers with analytical, application-oriented approach to
managerial problems.

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Guidelines for authors
1. All papers meant for any issue should be submitted on or before 31st
March for April
issue and 30th
August for September issue.
2. Only papers not previously published or under consideration for publication elsewhere
will be considered for publication.
3. Papers submitted should be accompanied by an abstract of not more than 250 words with
at least six key words. The papers should not exceed 8000 words (including references)
and should be typed using Times New Roman style, 12 font size and double line spacing.
The references must be presented in accordance with the 6th
edition of APA.
4. All manuscripts must have the title of the paper, name of the author(s), institutional
affiliation, GSM No and email address and should be submitted to
jalingosocialandmgtscjournal@gmail.com or eoruonye@gmail.com
5. The manuscripts submitted first undergo an initial screening by the editorial team. Those
cleared by the team are then sent to at least two experts for a blind peer review
6. The peer reviewers scrutinize the quality of the manuscripts and make their comments/
recommendations to the editors as to whether they be published with major or minor
corrections effected or not.
7. The editorial team considers all feedbacks from the peer reviewers and make an informed
decision to accept or reject the manuscript. The decision of the editorial team is then
conveyed to the authors/contributors by the secretary of the board.
8. Authors will be required to pay a non-refundable fee of N5000 for assessment upon
submission of the paper. If a paper is found worthy of publication, the author will be
expected to pay a publication fee of N20,000 only. All payments should be made into the
journal’s account with Zenith Bank Plc, Jalingo Branch: Acc. Name: Jalingo Journal of
Social and Management Sciences, Acc. No. 1015953013.
9. All published papers can be accessed online via the journal’s website.
https://www.tsuniversity.edu.ng/faculty-of-social-and-management-sciences
10. Authors of published papers are entitled to one hard copy

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
CONTENTS PAGE
Geospatial Analysis of Crime Incidence in Bayelsa West Senatorial
District, Bayelsa State, Nigeria Daukere B.E., Yelwa, S.A., Akpu, B. and
Ajani, A.O.
1-22
Climate Change, Resource Scarcity and Pastoralist-Farmer Conflict in
North Central, Nigeria Adebajo Adeola Aderayo and Iseoluwa Raphael,
Olayinka
23-38
Spatial Analysis of Industrial Activities and Their Pollution Effects On
Sustainable Water Demand in Enugu Environs, South Eastern Nigeria
Ogbu, S. Okonkwo and Nwosu, Ijeoma G.
39-53
Analysis of Spatial Distribution and Patronage of Tourism Sites in Jos,
Nigeria Lengnen L. Mutgurum, Adamu K. Usman, Mohammed Ismail
54-67
Asset Valuation: An Overview of Fair Value Measurement Approach
Aliyu, Shehu Usman
68-76
Determinants of Auditor Switching on Quoted Deposit Money Banks in
Nigeria. Forty-Four, Murtal Yusuf, Jato, TernaMacNolly, Ph.D and
Ephraim, Adamu Tonga
77-92
Impact of Government Capital Expenditure on Economic Growth Musa,
Mujtaba Abdullahi and Anfofum, Alexander Abraham
93-109
Impact of Chinese Technology Transfer on Nigeria’s Economic
Development. Atah Pine and Otumala Simon Jonah
110-123
Financial Reforms and The Industrial Sector Output in Nigeria: An
Empirical Approach (1985 - 2018) Ediri J. Ugherughe and Ewiwile
Stephen PhD
124-143
Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility on the Financial Performance of
Quoted Manufacturing Firms in Nigeria Forty-Four, Murtal Yusuf,
Jato, TernaMacNolly, Ph.D and Ephraim, Adamu Tonga
144-158
Sources of Industrial Energy Use in the 9th
Mile Area of Enugu State,
Nigeria. Ogbu, S. Okonkwo and Ugwoke, Agatha Chinwe
159-175
Assessment of Channel Planform Adjustments in the Mubi Section of River
Yedzeram, Adamawa State, Northeastern Nigeria
Ezekiel Yonnana, Mohammed Sayd Dzarma and Kadmiel Oliver
176-193
Evaluation of Drought pattern, Duration and Intensity in Northern Nigeria
Ezra, A., Martins, I. K. and Ikusemoran Mayomi
194-211

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A Review of Climate Change Anomalies and Environmental Productivity
of Resource in Northern Nigeria Buba Adamu Ndawayo
212-225
Child Adoption: Exploration of its Benefits and Impacts on Adoptees and
Adoptive Parents. Omeire, C. O., Omeire, E. U., Ebubechukwu. C. V.
and Eboh, E. A.
226-239
Political Determinants of Corruption in Nigeria. Andohol Jerome 240-255

Jalingo Journal of Social and Management Sciences Volume 2, Number 3 June, 2020 Page 1-22
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Geospatial Analysis of Crime Incidence in Bayelsa West Senatorial District, Bayelsa
State, Nigeria
Daukere B.E.1*, Yelwa, S.A.2, Akpu, B.3 and Ajani, A.O.4
1
Department of Geography, Nigerian Army College of Education, Ilorin, Nigeria
2
Department of Geography, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, Nigeria
3
Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Ahmadu Bello University,
Zaria
4
Department of Geographic Information System, Federal School of Surveying, Oyo,
Nigeria
Email: dauksenies2010@gmail.com & BenyB4real@gmail.com
Abstract
Criminal incidence has negative costs in terms of loss, death, psychological and physical
pains of the victims. This study applied geospatial techniques in analyzing crime incidents
in the Bayelsa West Senatorial District, Bayelsa State, Nigeria. Data of police crime
records were obtained from the Divisional Police Headquarters within the Bayelsa West
Senatorial District. An administrative map of the study area was acquired from the Ministry
of Land and Survey, Bayelsa State which was used as the base map. These data were
analyzed using Nearest Neighbour Analysis (NNA) and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE),
to derive the pattern and density of hotspots of crime in the area and descriptive statistics
were also used. The findings of the study revealed the existence of nine (9) crime types
from the police records. Theft/Stealing had the highest incidence rate of 30.6%, while
hurt/fighting and kidnapping were the least with 3.5% each. The NNA result of the spatial
pattern of crime produced a clustered point at 0.01% significance level with the Nearest
Neighbour Ratio (NNR) of 0.491906. The analysis of the KDE shows that crime
concentrates on the communities with high population and higher economic activities with
different types of crime showing different spatial patterns. The study, therefore
recommends that community policing committees should be established in Ekeremor,
Sagbama and other affected towns and villages bedevilled by criminal activities in the
Local Government Areas.
Keywords: Bayelsa West Senatorial District, Crime, Geospatial analysis, Hotspots, Kernel
Density Estimation and Nearest Neighbour analysis

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Introduction
The existence of crime is as old as the creation of man itself and man has always looked
for ways to combat and reduce it as much as possible. Criminal activities have continued
to be a major concern to contemporary society. Its occurrence in the form of kidnapping,
thefts, robbery, assaults, homicide, etc. is something that takes place every day in almost
all parts of our world (Fajemirokun, Adewale, Idowu, Oyewusi and Maiyegun, 2006). Most
nations in the world are faced with unacceptable levels of delinquency and crime
(Ackerman and Murray, 2004) which is very pathetic, pervasive, persistent, vulnerable,
disastrous and tragic to the progress of development in any country (Ibrahim and Kuta,
2015). A society with a high rate of criminal events is less attractive to both local and
foreign investment and this is the present situation that prevails in most parts of Nigeria
(Ejemeyovwi, 2015).
Crews (2009) defined crime as any breach of an established rule, regulation, or law
committed by person(s) for whom a punishment may ultimately be prescribed by a law
enforcement body. Thus, David (1985) stated that crime is an unlawful act which is
prohibited by the State and therefore attracts punishment. Crime is a common phenomenon
existing for several thousands of years. Due to the different political and economic system,
national tradition and cultural background, crime present various patterns in different
countries of the world (Xiong, 2016). Crime is a social problem and according to Fitzegard,
Molennar and Panson (1981) is universal and has varying forms in all cultures and societies
at all stages of organization.
The distribution of crime across the landscape or globe is geographically not random since
crimes are human phenomena (Chainey, 2014). For crimes to occur, offenders and their
targets - the victims and/or property - must exist at the same location for a period of time
(Ejemeyovwi, 2015). Numerous factors, besides the lure of potential targets and simple
geographic opportuneness for an offender, influence where offenders choose to commit
crime (Fajemirokun et al, 2006). Therefore, the study of its geography plays an important
role in law enforcement, criminal justice and public safety. Consequently, criminal activity
is unevenly distributed across urban environments, simultaneously constrained and
supported by both the structure of the environment and the routine movements of the
population (Umar, 2017). In addition, Greenburg and Rohe (1984) affirmed that certain
physical and environmental factors such as the physical layout of an area, proximity to
various services and land use mixes are also likely to influence criminal behaviour which
is fundamental to the explanation of criminal activities in a spatial context. That is, physical
design affects crime, such as burglary and robbery, through its effect on the degree of

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access, ease of entrance and exit, surveillability, and the number of potential targets
(Wortley and Townsley, 2016). Brantingham and Brintingham (1984) added that criminal
incidences are the outcome of people’s (both criminals and potential victims) interaction
and movement at particular dwelling areas and time. This explains why crimes are
committed in certain areas.
The increasing number of crime rates has raised the need to find new ways to handle
information about criminal activities and also to understand its causes and solution.
Ferreira, João and Martins (2012) described crime mapping and spatial analysis as new
forms of understanding crime pattern and the hideout of criminals. In addition, Johnson
(2000) stated that the traditional and age-old system of intelligence and criminal record
maintenance has failed to live up to the requirements of the existing crime situation. This
method has failed to provide accurate, reliable and comprehensive data that will help in
trend prediction and decision support system that will aid in increased productivity and
effective utilization of manpower. The study concluded that the only solution to this ever-
increasing problem lies in the effective use of Information Technology (IT) of which
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) has the capability for crime analysis that comprises
the collection and analysis of data relating to a criminal event, criminal and target.
In Nigeria, there are a lot of factors that increase crime rates and criminal tendencies which
include the political and economic changes and changes in the social structure which occur
due to migration (Onyepuemu, 2015; Umar, 2017). According to the statistics released by
the National Bureau of Statistics (2017), Lagos, Abuja, Delta, Kano, Ondo, Oyo, Rivers,
Bauchi, Plateau, and Anambra States made the top ten lists of states with high number of
crimes. The document revealed that a total of 125,790 cases was reported in 2016 where
offenses against property had the highest number of cases. In Bayelsa state, the crime rate
is also at an alarming rate with 1.23 per cent share of the total cases reported in the said
year. The state is 21 on the list with a total of 1,541 cases reported in 2016. There has been
an enormous increase in crime in recent times. These crimes include theft and other
stealing, assault, false pretense and cheating, armed robbery, murder, burglary, rape,
indecent assault and house breaking etc. (Effiong, Iyiola, Gbiri and Daukere, 2016).
The Bayelsa West Senatorial District has witnessed a remarkable expansion, growth and
developmental activities as well as crime since the creation of Bayelsa state in 1996. The
high rate of urbanization with increasing economic activities is weakening the social
networks and therefore increasing crime activities in the area. This has therefore resulted
in increased crime rates and alterations in the social status of the area over time, which
constitute incidences of the atmosphere of fear, anxiety and tension with a state of

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insecurity (Etebu and James, 2011; Onyepuemu, 2015). The general security of the study
area is pathetic where cases of armed robbery attacks, cult activities, murder, drug
trafficking and other crimes have become common (Nwagboso, 2018) leading to loss of
lives and property. This necessitated the need to apply geospatial techniques in analyzing
crime in the Bayelsa West Senatorial District. The objectives are to identify and map crime
types, determine the distribution pattern of crime and determine the hotspots of crime
among the settlements of the study area.
Description of Study Area
The study area is Bayelsa West Senatorial District, which comprises of Sagbama and
Ekeremor Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Bayelsa State, Nigeria. The area is located
between Latitudes 4o
42ʹN and 5o
23ʹN of the Equator and Longitudes 5o
23′E to 6o
32′E of
the Greenwich Meridian with a total landmass of 2,771.9km2
(National Population
Commission (NPC) [Nigeria], 2009). It is bounded by Delta State to the North and
Yenagoa, Kolokuma/Opokuma and Southern Ijaw LGAs to the South. The study area also
has a coastline of approximately 60km on the Bight of Bonny. Many of the communities
are almost (and in some cases) completely surrounded by water, making them inaccessible
by road (see fig. 1). The climate of the area is characterized by a tropical monsoon climate
(Mmom and Akpi, 2014). Rainfall occurs generally every month of the year, but over 80%
of it occurs in the months of May to September (Shell Petroleum Development Company
of Nigeria Limited, 2005). The soils of the area are of young geologic formation of the
Quaternary and recent alluvium underlain by cretaceous sediments and are extensively
low-lying. The vegetation in the area is freshwater swamps and lowland rain forests and
these different vegetation types are associated with the various soil units of the area (State
Employment and Expenditure for Results [SEEFOR] Project Bayelsa State, 2016). Based
on the 2006 population census, the study area has an estimated population of 269,588 and
186,869 for Ekeremor and Sagbama LGAs respectively (National Bureau of Statistics,
2011). The patterns of the settlements are mostly linear, patterned along the river / sea or
coastal banks. The major road is the Sagbama-Ekeremor-Agge road which is still under
construction and most of the villages and towns are not well planned and the pavement are
not well laid out (Ebenezer, Noutcha, Okiwelu and Commander, 2014) which can affect
patrols by security personnel.

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Fig. 1: Bayelsa West Senatorial District
Source: Adapted from the administrative map of Bayelsa State
Materials and Methods
The sources of data for this study were obtained from both primary and secondary sources.
Data on the geographical coordinates of the crime scene were collected through their
addresses using Garmin eTrexR
20x Handheld GPS Receiver with an accuracy of at least
5 metres. The geographical coordinates were used to produce the distributional pattern and
hotspots of crime in Bayelsa West Senatorial District. The administrative map of the study
area was acquired from the Ministry of Land and Survey, Bayelsa State. The
administrative map at a scale of 1:50,000 were used as the base map for the study. The data
on crime rate, types and their addresses which was the secondary source of data were

6
obtained from the crime records of the Divisional Police Headquarters for the year 2014 to
2018. The selection of the period was borne out of the fact that the period is the most
accessible with the availability of current data. This is due to the poor management of crime
data, and difficulty in retrieving data from the relevant police authorities. Non-participatory
observation was used to identify the condition and the facilities of the various
administrative wards in the study area. Other relevant information was also obtained from
published materials like journals, conference proceedings, internet, thesis etc.
The geographic coordinates of the crime scene were overlaid on the Geo-referenced and
digitized map of the study area in order to map the distribution of the various crime types
of the area. The Nearest Neighbour Analysis (NNA) inferential statistical tool in
ArcGIS10.5 was employed to determine the spatial pattern in the data. Crime hotspot maps
were produced using the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) in ArcGIS10.5 to show the area
with high to low susceptibility to crime within the period of 2014 to 2018 in the area. The
technique was used because the method is the most suitable spatial analysis technique for
visualizing crime data (Eck, Chainey, Cameron, Leitner and Wilson, 2005; Chainey,
Tompson and Uhlig, 2008).
Results of the Findings
Identification and Mapping of Crime Types in Bayelsa West Senatorial District
There were nine (9) crime types recorded in the crime data from the police divisions in the
area between 2014 and 2018. These were armed robbery, murder/homicide, theft/stealing,
assault, rape, burglary/home breaking, false pretense and cheating, hurting/fighting, and
kidnapping. The crime types from the police records are presented in Table 1.
Table 1: Bayelsa West Senatorial District Crime Incidents Report
Source: Author’s Analysis (2019)
Crime Type Frequency Percentage
Armed Robbery 24 14.1
Murder/Homicide 16 9.4
Theft/Stealing 52 30.6
Assault 30 17.6
Rape 8 4.7
Burglary/Home Breaking 18 10.6
False Pretense and Cheating 10 5.9
Hurting/Fighting 6 3.5
Kidnapping 6 3.5
Total 170 100

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Table 1, revealed that theft/stealing had the highest percentage with 30.6% in the study
area and is followed by assault with 17.6%. It also revealed that hurting/fighting and
kidnapping has 3.5% each and were the least crime types committed within the study area.
This result revealed that theft/stealing is the most common type of crime in the area. The
findings of this study are similar to the ones identified by Effiong et al (2016) in Yenagoa
LGA of Bayelsa State and that of Balogun, Okeke and Chukwukere (2014) in Benin City,
Nigeria where their findings revealed the high rate of theft/stealing in the study areas. The
high rate of theft/stealing can be attributed to the low level of socioeconomic status of the
various wards in the Bayelsa West Senatorial District. This may be attributed to the age
structure which is characterized by young people. Cohen and Felson (1979) argued that the
absence of guardianship, help increases the opportunity to commit crime. Consequently,
the absence of a capable guardian may be a factor of the increase in crime rate because the
area is characterized with a young population.
Fig. 2: Crime Types of the Study Area
From Fig. 2, one can also observe that most of the crimes occurred along major Rivers
linking major villages and towns. For instance, towns along the major rivers such as

8
Sagbama, Ebedebiri, Toru-Orua, Ofoni, Aleibiri, Ekeremor and Peretorougbene are all
major crime scene locations characterized by increasing economic activities and high
population. This study aligned with the outcome of the study conducted in Yenagoa Local
Government Area of Bayelsa State, Nigeria by Effiong et al (2016). Their study attributed
high crime areas to political wards that are characterized by high population with greater
economic activities.
Distribution Pattern of Crime in Bayelsa West Senatorial District
The distributional pattern of crime event is to analyze the spatial pattern of crime events
within the study area. The Nearest Neighbour Analysis (NNA) inferential statistical tool in
ArcGIS10.5 was employed to determine the spatial pattern in the data. The summary of
this nearest Neighbour analysis is shown in fig. 3.
Fig. 3: Spatial Pattern of Crime Scene

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The result in fig. 3 revealed that the observed mean distance between the crime incidents
is 1464.4 meters as opposed to the expected mean distance of 2977.0 meters as computed
by the ArcGIS 10.5 software. The result further revealed that the spatial pattern of the crime
events in the study area is clustered around densely populated areas of Ekeremor and
Sagbama communities with higher economic activities with Z-scores of -12.7, that is, there
is less than 1% probability that this clustered pattern of the crime incidents could be
because of random chance. The clustered pattern of the reported crime events is as a result
of high population with increased economic activities in specific areas. These factors also
affect the location of police divisions and stations in the study area. The inequality in the
population distribution and the presence of government facilities (schools, health care
facilities etc.) across the political wards produced the clustered pattern of crime events.
In addition, the influence of geography was seen to also affect the concentration of crime
in the study area. Specifically, the highly populated areas with increased economic
activities such as Ekeremor and Sagbama were among the settlements with high records of
crime in the study area. These settlements appear to be dominated by high influential
people and politicians, non-indigenous, some certain business activities and offices of both
government and private business establishments. The findings of this study also
corroborated by that of Badru, Akintuyi, Omoniyegha and Wunude (2019) whose study
revealed a clustered distributional pattern of crime events at University of Lagos, Nigeria,
as more of the criminal incidences appear to gather around the same point such as where
there are no security posts.
Hot Spots of the Various Crime in Bayelsa West Senatorial District
Maps showing the distribution of all and various crime hotspots were produced from
geocoded crime data collected from the police divisions in the study area. The kernel
density hotspot maps were produced for the year 2014 - 2018 for all and each of the crime
types committed in the area. A visual analysis of these maps (see fig. 4 - 13) suggests that,
crime tends to concentrate in particular areas, but not in others and different types of crime
show different spatial patterns. This concurred with the existing general knowledge about
the spatial patterns of crime in an urban setting (Chainey, 2014; Umar, Cheshire and
Johnson, 2015).

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Fig. 4: Hotspot of Crime
The result in fig. 4 shows the hotspots of all incidences of reported crime in the study area
which revealed that crime is generally concentrated in Aleibiri, Ekeremor and Sagbama
towns in the study area. These communities may be vulnerable to crime because they
exhibit certain characteristics such as high-density residential areas, also referred to as
urban villages, irregular plot layouts with narrow streets that are mostly unpaved, presence
of markets, high population, the presence of police divisions to report crime and higher
institution such as the Isaac Jasper Boro College of Education with higher economic
activities than the Neighbouring communities among others. Generally, the communities
are not planned; the Neighbourhoods are accessible from all fronts with no fence or gate in
most buildings or streets, poor road networks, old and derelict buildings, poverty and
overcrowded households. The finding of this study corroborates with the findings of Umar
et al (2015) in Malali – Kaduna, Nigeria where crime concentrated in poor and unplanned
Neighbourhoods. The finding of this study also revealed that communities such as Agbere,
Toru-Owa, Ofoni, Tungbo, Toru-Ndoro, Turu-Ebene, Osiama, Ogbotobo, Ogbobiri,
Adagbabiri recorded low crime events while communities such as Ayamasa, Letugbene,
Orobiri, Bisagbene, Atane-gbene etc. recorded no crime. This may be attributed to the

11
absence of police divisions/stations in the area before the establishment of new police
divisions in Toru-Owa and Aleibiri and police stations in Agbere and Egbema-Angalabiri
in November, 2018. This may be also attributed to the high cost of the water transport
system in the area.
The result in fig. 5 shows the hotspots of armed robbery in the study area. Armed robbery
was predominant in Sagbama, Tungbabiri, Tungbo and Toru-Owa communities in the
study area. These communities may be vulnerable to armed robbery because they exhibit
certain characteristics such as better housing condition, and the presence of higher
institution such as University of Africa and Isaac Jasper Boro College of Education
including the completed section of the major road from Sagbama to Ekeremor with higher
economic activities than the neighbouring communities among others. Generally, the
communities are not well planned and the pavement not well laid-out; the Neighbourhoods
are accessible from all fronts with the poor road system and overcrowded households.
While communities such as Agge, Ajambiri, Gbotobo, Elemebiri, Trofani, Ekpetiama etc.
had no or very low density of robbery crime. These communities are characterized by poor
housing condition, poor environmental sanitation, old and derelict buildings, poverty, lack
of access roads and are surrounded by rivers among others. These characteristics do not
encourage armed robbery to strive in the study area. The finding did not agree with
Oyinloye, Olamiju and Otokiti (2017) where the authors found out that robbery crime in
Oshodi-Isolo area of Akure, Nigeria are concentrated in communities characterized by poor
housing condition, poor environmental sanitation, old and derelict buildings and poverty.
Fig. 6 shows hotspot of murder/homicide, which revealed that Aleibiri, Isampou,
Owegbene, Toru-Owa and Toru-Angiama had a high density of murder/homicide cases in
the area. These may be attributed to poverty and the low economic activities that
characterize these communities among others. While Amazor, Letugbene, Asamabiri and
Ayamabene had very low density of murder/homicide crime. The finding of the study
corroborates with Adewuyi, Eneji, Baduku and Olofi (2017) in Abuja Municipal where the
study revealed that homicide crime depends on the volume of economic activities taking
place in the district.
The result in fig. 7 shows hotspots of incidence of theft/stealing in the study area. It
revealed that Ekeremor, Amanagbene, Obirigbene, Tungbo and Sagbama had high density
of theft/stealing cases in the area. The distribution of theft/stealing in the study area could
be attributed to the volume of activities taking place in these communities and the presents
of police divisions in Ekeremor and Sagbaba towns which are the major commercial hubs
of the study area. The finding of this study corroborates with Adewuyi et al (2017) in the

12
Abuja Municipal where the study revealed that theft/stealing largely depends on the
volume of activities taking place in the district. Also, the findings of this study corroborate
with the finding of Bala, Bawa, Lugga and Ajayi (2015) where the findings of their study
revealed that high rate of theft/stealing was due to the presence of markets and other
economic activities. On the other hand, Angalabiri, Ogobiri and Osiama had a low density
of theft/stealing crime. The low density of theft/stealing in these communities may be
attributed to absence of police stations/posts and higher economic activities.
Fig. 5: Hotspot of Armed Robbery

13
Fig. 6: Hotspot of Murder/Homicide
Fig. 7: Hotspot of Theft/Stealing

14
The result in fig. 8 shows that assault cases were predominant in Ekeremor and its environs
in the study area. This may be attributed to the fact that most of the political rallies in the
study area are conducted in this town. It is characterized by high volume of economic
activities than its surrounding communities with high population. This finding corroborates
with that of Ayuba, Mugu, Tanko and Bulus (2016) in Tudun Wada, Kaduna where assault
and other related crime are concentrated in areas with high population and the presence of
large markets. On the other hand, communities such as Agge, Ayamasa, Elembiri etc. had
no assault case reported.
Fig. 9 shows the incidence of rape and attempted rape in the Bayelsa West Senatorial
District. Aguru, Bolou-Orua, Sagbama junction and Adagbabiri had high density of
rape/attempted rape cases in the study area. This may be attributed to the presence of
tertiary institutions which leads to illicit dressing among women in the area, while Ofoni,
Awigbene, Ogbotobo communities had a low density of rape/attempted rape cases. The
finding of this study corroborates with the findings of Joseph (2018) which attributed the
major causes of rape to illicit dressing of women in Nigeria.
Fig. 8: Hotspot of Assault

15
Fig. 9: Hotspot of Rape/Attempted Rape
Fig. 10: Hotspot of Burglary/Home Breaking

16
Fig. 11: Hotspot of False Pretense and Cheating
Fig. 12: Hotspot of Hurting/Fighting

17
Fig. 13: Hotspot of Kidnapping
The result in fig. 10 shows that Agbere, Odoni, Ogbobiri and Obotor areas had high density
of burglary/home breaking cases in the study area. While Bolou-Orua, Toru-Angiama,
Ekeremor, Ogobiri, Norgbene, Amabulu, Amazor and Agge had low density of
burglary/home breaking cases while communities such as Letugbene, Egbepulugbene,
Gbentu, Elemebiri and Asamabiri had no case of burglary/home breaking records. This
may be attributed to the presence of retail shops in the communities along the major rivers
in the area characterized with the scariest undertone of socioeconomic underachievement
and the simultaneous failure of employment-generation and poverty alleviation programs.
The finding of the study agrees with Adewuyi et al (2017) where the authors attributed the
high rate of unemployment and poverty as the major causes of crime in the Abuja
Municipal area.
The result in fig. 11 shows that Sagbama, Tungbabiri, Tungbo, Toru-Angiama, Angalabiri,
had a high density of false pretense and cheating cases in the area. These communities are
characterized by higher population than its surrounding communities. While Tamogbene,
Obotor and Ogobiri had a low density of pretense and cheating. The finding corroborates
with Ayuba et al (2016) in Tudun Wada, Kaduna where pretense and cheating crime are
concentrated at areas with high population density.

18
The result in fig. 12 shows that Tamogbene, Ekeremor, Isampou, Obirigbene and
Foutorugbene had a high density of hurting/fighting cases in the area. As mentioned
earlier, that most of the political rallies in the study area are conducted in Ekeremor town
characterized by high population with higher economic activities than the surrounding
communities may be the major cause of hurting/fighting in the area. While there was no
such crime recorded in the whole of Sagbama LGA.
The result in fig. 13 shows that Angalabiri, Toru-Orua, Toru-Angiama, Sagbama,
Tungbabiri, Tungbo and Oweigbene had a high density of kidnapping crimes. This crime
can be perpetuated anywhere, regardless of where the adopted persons resides, all that the
criminals need to do is to track their targets or victims. These communities have a high
population concentration in the middle and low income class status except Oweigbene
community which is characterized by low population but it is an oil host community. The
areas have a lot security formation, such as two police divisional headquarters, Counter
Terrorism Unit 22 Base, and 16 Field Engineer Regiment are all located very close to the
area, hence, this did not pose a great fear in the minds of the criminals. The finding also
corroborates with Ayuba et al (2016) in Kaduna, Nigeria, where the authors observed that
the pattern of kidnapping cut across the study area, regardless of where the victims live.
Conclusion
A criminal incidence has negative costs in terms of loss, death, psychological and physical
pains and many others on the victims. High crime events raise significant public policy
questions concerning how to perceive, detect, control and prevent criminal activities in an
area. Comparison of criminal events among micro-geographic unit like settlements or
wards in the levels of reported crime incidence over the years can help focus attention on
specific locations that need more support and security patrol to curb the menace of crimes.
The capability of GIS in understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of crime events and the
potential crime prevention and control cannot be over emphasized. The helpfulness of
crime mapping in crime prevention and control is enormous. Security personnel who are
newly posted to a place can spend only few minutes studying these crime maps to gain a
good understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of crime events. This will assist in
utilizing the limited resources and personnel for effective patrol deployment arrangements.
The study has shown how GIS as a tool can be used effectively to analyze crime and display
crime maps for adequate planning and the efficient management of resources and personnel
to hotspot areas in order to reduce crime in the study area.

19
Recommendations
The following recommendations were made based on the findings:
1. More police posts should be provided by Government in Ayamasa, Ogobiri,
Elemebiri communities so as to boost security and to be easily accessed by the
residents in the area.
2. The high risk areas of crime hotspots such as Ekeremor, Sagbama, Toru-Owa etc.
should be specially treated. More security personnel (especially policemen) and
resources should be deployed to such areas with more patrol by the police
authorities.
3. The Local Government Councils (LGCs) should establish community policing
committees for the affected towns and villages bedevilled by criminal activities.
The committees should include representatives of the security agencies operating
in the area, especially the Divisional Police Officers (DPOs), the traditional rulers
of such towns/villages, local vigilante and other stakeholders. This will ensure
useful and relevant information and suggestions on crime prevention strategy.
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23
Climate Change, Resource Scarcity and Pastoralist-Farmer Conflict in North
Central, Nigeria
Adebajo, Adeola Aderayo (PhD) and Iseoluwa, Raphael Olayinka
Department of Political Science, Tai Solarin University of Education, Ijagun, Ogun State,
Nigeria.
Email: adebajoaa@tasued.edu.ng; adebajoade@gmail.com
olayinkaiseoluwa@gmail.com
Abstract
Pastoralist-farmer conflict has been a perennial security challenge in Nigeria. The conflict
has led to the destruction of human lives and property, and spiral displacement of people
with associated humanitarian crises. Several factors such as encroachment of farming
routes, rape, religion and incessant migration have been adduced to predispose farmers and
pastoralists to endemic violent conflicts. However, the roles of unmitigated climate change
and resource scarcity in perpetuating the conflict have been given scanty scholarly
attention. The paper examined the interplay among climatic change, resource scarcity and
incessant conflict between the two agricultural groups. The eco-violence theory was
adopted as an explanatory framework to anchor the paper. The paper relied on secondary
sources of data. It maintained that unmitigated climate change and its associated drought
remotely cause the pastoralists to migrate in search of pastures, thereby pitching them
against the crop farmers. It recommended that more awareness should be created on the
danger climate change poses to humanity. There is a need for public-private partnership to
establish ranches for the cattle rearers in their domains in order to reduce constant
migration.
Keywords: Climate change, Conflict, Environmental management, Pastoralist-farmer
conflict and Resource Scarcity,
Introduction
Pastoralist-farmer conflict is one of the security dilemmas confronting Nigeria in the fourth
republic. Apart from Boko Haram insurgency ravaging the North-East which has taken its
toll on the socioeconomic development of the country, pastoralist-farmer conflict has
assumed a much more dangerous phenomenon with devastating effects. In the time past,
the herders and farmers had enjoyed symbiotic relationships in form of ecological and

Climate Change, Resource Scarcity and Pastoralist-Farmer Conflict in North Central, Nigeria
24
exchange linkages. However, occasional disputes occurred which were amicably resolved
to give room for peaceful co-existence between the two agricultural groups.
The persistent and destructive nature the conflict between the two groups has assumed
leaves much to be desired as the political leaders and other stakeholders remain helpless in
ensuring peaceful resolution of the conflict. In the North Central Nigeria, Benue, Taraba,
Nasarawa and Plateau states have witnessed instability and economic stagnation as a result
of recurrent and intractable conflicts between farmers and herders. Between 2010 and
2015, Nigeria lost 6,500 citizens and 62,000 others were displaced from their homes in 850
violent clashes between herdsmen and farmers in the North Central Nigeria (Njoku, 2018).
Several factors such as encroachment of farming routes, rape, religious sentiments,
migration, crop destruction, indigeneship/settlership conundrum, cattle rustling and rural
banditry have been adduced to cause the conflict.
In spite of the efforts of different stakeholders such as community leaders, village heads,
local government chairpersons, security agents, civil society groups and pastoralist leaders
in making efforts to resolve the conflict, it has become intractable with attendant
destruction of lives and properties, and disruption of social and economic activities in the
affected states. Not only that, the cycle of displacement caused by the violent conflict with
its risks and vulnerabilities arising from it has attracted global attention. As a matter of fact,
the extent to which the climate change and resource scarcity can cause pastoralist-farmer
conflict has not been exhaustively explored. It is against this backdrop that the paper sought
to interrogate the connection between climate change, resource scarcity and pastoralist-
farmers conflict ravaging some states in the North Central Nigeria.
Clarification of Concepts
Climatic change
Climate change is as old as human existence and it is a global phenomenon that has gained
prominence in the 21st century. Like other global issues such as HIV/AIDS, Ebola virus,
economic meltdown and terrorism, climate change has drawn much global attention due
to its devastating effects on mankind. Climate change can be a slight or extreme differences
in the range of conditions expected in a particular region as a result of human activity or
natural processes linked to the atmosphere, oceans and land, as well as variations in heat
output from the sun (Ontario, 2018). The changes could be in the form of significant
increase in the average temperature of the earth. According to Binghamton University
(2019), global climate change is predicted to increase the prevalence of extreme cold

25
temperature events as temperature fluctuations. Climate change can be defined as the
global phenomenon which involves climate transformation characterized by changes in the
usual climate of the earth caused by human activities. It can also be defined as a broad
range of global phenomena caused by burning fossil fuels, which add heat-trapping gases
to earth atmosphere (National Association and Space Administration (NASA) (2014).
Climate change also connotes change in the state of climate which can be identified by
change in the mean and or variability of its properties which persist for an extended period
of time. It occurs when long-term weather patterns are altered through human activities. It
can also be viewed as a change in the statistical properties of the climate system that persists
for several decades or longer. It can occur as a result of natural processes such as changes
in the sun radiation, volcanoes or internal variability in the climate system (Gahlau, 2018).
Furthermore, climate change is a change in the pattern of weather and related changes in
oceans, land surfaces and ice sheets, occurring over a time scale of decades or longer. The
United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)(2016) maintained that the earth
’s temperature depends on the balance between energy entering and leaving the planet
system. When the incoming energy from the sun is absorbed by the earth system, the earth
warms; when the sun's energy is released back into space, the earth cools. For there to be
a favourable climatic condition, a degree of equilibrium must exist between the incoming
energy from the sun to the earth and sun energy that is released back into space.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)(2007) argued that, in order to
limit the dramatic consequences of climate change, global average temperature must be
below 2o
C. Furthermore, the global land and ocean surface temperature for January 2020
was the highest in 141-year record, a temperature from average of 1.14 o
C and 2.05o
C. The
combined global land and ocean surface temperature for 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015 were
recorded to be 0.83o
C, 0.84o
C, 0.94o
C and 0.90o
C respectively (National Association and
Space Administration (NASA)(2019). It is important to note that climate change cuts
across all human endeavours, therefore, it is an unpredictable potential hazard which may
trigger civil unrest in every aspect of human life.
In consonance with this view, Okem (2017) opined that climate change affects the energy
sector, water supply, transportation, ecology and other infrastructure that are critical to the
functioning of modern societies, disrupts local economies and strips populations of their
livelihoods and therefore leading to mass migration. On the other hand, human activities
in the 20th century have been the dominant cause for climatic change. Human activities
like burning fossil fuels like coals, oil and gas, cutting down of rainforests (deforestation),

26
increasing livestock farming, application of fertilizers containing nitrogen, fluorinated
gases and bush burning, influence changes in climatic condition (European Union Climatic
Action, 2012; NASA, 2018). Changes in climatic condition occur when enormous amounts
of greenhouse gases are released in addition to existing natural gases in the atmosphere,
which often leads to the greenhouse effect and global warming (European Union Climatic
Action, 2012). The European Union Climatic Action (2012) further maintained that many
of the gases occur naturally and are readily present in the atmosphere, therefore human
activity significantly increases the amount of greenhouse gases and this consequently
degenerate into overconcentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide and
fluorinated gases in the atmosphere. From the foregoing, it could be deduced that continual
increase in world population, coupled with civilization, technological advancement,
industrialization and other activities related to human exploration are capable of changing
the natural greenhouse composition by increasing concentration of its gases.
Resource Scarcity
Resource scarcity can be referred to as dearth or rarity of resource as a result of the decline
in the quality, availability or productivity of natural resources, which may consequently
result in reduction in social or economic well-being. Thus, it has to do with lack of adequate
natural resources needed to meet man’s physiological, economic and social needs in their
respective environment. According to Tevjan (2019), resource scarcity is a situation where
demand for natural resource is exceeding the supply, leading to the decline in the
availability of such resources. Resource scarcity can also be exacerbated by climate
change, deforestation, and other forms of environmental damage.
Resource scarcity has to do with diminishing availability of renewable and non-renewable
resources in any society. Environmental scarcity as a precursor to violent conflicts was
propounded by Homer-Dixon who advanced the eco-violence theory to explain how
diminishing environmental resources can be a remote cause of conflict particularly
pastoralist-farmer conflict. Shortage of environmental resources can be caused by
structural, ecological, demand and supply-induced and resource capture. Demand-induced
scarcity can arise due to increased population and consumption rate of natural resources.
Between 1950 and 2000, there has been exponential increase in the population in sub-
Saharan Africa from 177 million to 657 million placing a lot of pressure on available
resources that are being confronted with climate variability. Climate change affects the
availability of four major resources that are used by pastoralists and farmers and such
include freshwater, cropland, forests and fish. Supply- induced scarcity occurs when

27
natural resources are too much in supply, there will be saturation and if not properly
preserved, managed and utilized, there will be a period where no resources will be available
or scarcity will exist, then, competition begins which can lead to clashes among groups.
When there is an excessive supply of natural resources and there is no mechanism for
renewal or replenishing, it leads to scarcity. The users tend to misuse and waste the
resources without considering its utility in the near future. As regards the use of natural
resources by the pastoralists, they tend to over-use the available natural resources without
replenishing them and when there are no resources they adopt migration as an adaptive
lifestyle. Overgrazing of environmental resources by herders leads to tragedy of lack of
renewable resources which has been the experience of man. Structural scarcity can be a
product of poor resource governance or it can also be experienced in a functional system
where inequity prevails. Structural scarcity predisposes the two agricultural groups to
conflict. Unequal access to the available natural environmental resources makes them
scarce to different groups in the society. To Mathew (2008), resource scarcity can be
viewed from three perspectives, namely: non-availability of resources to satisfy human
basic needs, consumption at the current or higher levels and in terms of actual demand of
both human and non-human species. If pastoralists do not have access to the grazing land
or lacks access to land to rear animals because of the fact that they are considered strangers
or non-indigenous as the experience of the herders show in many West African nations,
structural scarcity is created. If resources are inequitably allocated or distributed among
groups in the society, a dysfunctional system is created that will serve the interest of a
group in the society.
Theoretical Framework
The Eco-violence Theory
The study adopted eco-violence theory as its explanatory framework. The major exponents
of the theory are Thomas Homer-Dixon and Jessica Blitt, while Peter Gizewski, Philip
Howard, Kimberly Kelly and Valerie Percival made tremendous contributions to its
advancement. It has its epistemological root in the political ecology theory. The theory
explains that there is a linkage between environmental issues and human relation or social
conflict in the society. From the view of Homer-Dixon (1999), decrease in the quality and
quantity of renewable resource, population growth and resource access act singly or in
various combinations to increase in the scarcity of cropland, water and forests. According
to Homer-Dixon and Blitt (1998) eco-violence explores links between environmental
scarcities of key renewable resources such as cropland, fresh water, forests and violent

28
rebellions, insurgencies, and ethnic clashes in developing countries. In relation to
pastoralist-farmers, conflict in Nigeria, changes in climatic conditions which often results
to drought and famine prompts herders to move from a particular region to another in
search of vegetal plants to feed their cattle. This increase in movement of migratory
herders and encroachment of grazing routes by crop farmers, coupled with other illicit
acts, non-adherence to the norms of the farming communities, religious intolerance and
rape helps in worsening the conflict.
Adebajo (2018) contends that agricultural farmers and the pastoralist groups had a cordial
and stable relationship that enable the people to work side by side for decades. However,
it has been argued that the conflict between the pastoralists and farmers can be understood
from the perspective of environmental degradation, irregular rainfall that has placed
constraints on grassland, crop production and rapidly growing population leading to fierce
competition for land and its resources. On the other hand, the theory has been criticized for
its inadequacies. One of the inadequacies of this theory is that it has placed too much
emphasis on environmental factor responsible for the conflict without considering ethnic
differences, religious factors and other external influences responsible for the conflict
between the two agricultural groups. There is no consensus among the scholars as regards
the empirical evidence that links drought and violent conflict. Also, Hagmann (2005)
debunked the eco-violence theory for relying on preconceived casualties, intermingling
eco-centric with anthropocentric philosophy, neglecting the motivations and subjective
perceptions of local actors. The theory is applicable to this study because it analyses how
climate change causes resource scarcity which predisposes farmers and pastoralists to
engage in incessant conflicts.
Pastoralist-Farmers conflict in the North-Central Region of Nigeria
Pastoralist-farmer conflict has been one of the contentious issues confronting the country
in recent times. The conflict is a form of wrangling between migratory herders who move
their cattle from one geographical location to another in search of water and grassland for
feeding their cattle. The conflict is mainly between the sedentary crop farmers and the
nomadic cow herders of Nigeria’s middle belt, where competition over diminishing land
and water resources has turned lethal with devastating effects on socio-economic wellbeing
of people. Pastoralism is an agricultural practice characterized by mobility, adaptation,
flexibility, diversification and mutual support (Dong, 2016). Therefore pastoralist raise,
tend and care for their livestock using all means available, regardless of time and place.
By so doing, they often migrate from one particular region to the other in search of

29
grassland to feed their cattle. The search often degenerates into encroachment of farm lands
used by the farmers for farming activities. However, the encroachment of farm land and
the conflicting interest of the two opposing groups have consequently resulted in violent
clashes and reappraisal attacks between farmers and herders.
Herder-farmer crisis is a form of inter occupational wrangles and conflict between the two
main agricultural practitioners in the country, the farmers and pastoralists. The conflicts
are caused by the resistance of farmers to encroachment of their farmland by the herders
and their cattle in the course of their persistent search for greener pasture. However, counter
reaction by the armed herders often makes the clashes more devastating. The devastating
effect of the conflict is not only limited to the affected areas, as it has reverberating effects
on availability of food items and commodities, considering the fact that the central region
is believed to be at the fore of agriculture and food production in the country.
Pastoralist-farmer conflict has become a menace in Nigeria, particularly in the North
Central and some pockets of states in the country. The Global Terrorism Index ranked
Nigeria as the third most terrorized country in the global system due to the devastations
wrought on human lives as a result of the two deadly violent conflicts. While the Nigeria’s
Fulani herdsmen were rated as the world’s fourth deadliest militant group for causing the
death of about 1,229 people in 2014 in Nigeria (Buchanan, 2015). Since 2011, the conflict
has reached the highest apogee with damning and devastating consequences. In many rural
areas in the North Central Nigeria, the pastoralists have engaged in violent clashes with
their host communities over the destruction of crops, contamination of water points such
as streams, indiscriminate defecation by the cattle, sexual assaults of women in the host
communities, farmers’ encroachment on the cattle routes, extortion of money by the task
force, cattle rustling, rural banditry, differences in cultural, religious and social values.
Relationships between pastoralists and farmers began to strain since 2001 resulting in
violent conflicts in Jos, Plateau State. Areas in Plateau state such as Jos South, Riyom,
Langtang South, Barkin Ladi and Wase have witnessed orgy of violence between the two
agricultural groups leading to loss of lives and properties (Adebajo, 2020). Between 8th
and
18th
October, 2017, six villages in Bassa were severely attacked by the armed pastoralists
which led to the death of fifty people (Amnesty International, 2018). As if that was not
enough, in 2018, eighty-six people were massacred among the Berom farmers during
pastoralist-farmer conflict in Plateau state (Amnesty International, 2018). In Kogi state,
there was an invasion of the communities by the pastoralists which caused devastating
consequences. Communities such as Agojeju-Idaka in Dekina L.G.A, Egbola in

30
Igalamela/Odolu L.G.A and Umoni in Ofu LGA in Kogi state experienced incessant
conflicts between farmers and herders. Amuro in Nnopa Maro in Kogi West was also
destroyed in revenge attacks over the killing of seventy cows by the community members
(Idakwoji, Ojomah, Usman and Orokpo, 2018). Kwara state is not spared from the
decimating effects of the conflict. According to Adebajo, (2020) attacks and reprisal
attacks have characterized what used to be a symbiotic relationship between the herders
and the host communities. For instance, in Alapa in Asa LGA, Oro Ago in Ifelodun LGA,
Motogun in Patigi LGA, Obbo Ajegunle in Ekiti LGA, Isin LGA and Odo-Owa in Oke-
Ero LGA were destroyed by the conflict. Although, the conflict has been perceived as mere
agricultural and resource based, but there are several underlying forces perpetuating it such
as the indigeneship/settlership conundrum, ethnicity, impoverishment of the conflict
groups and external influences supported by the supply of ammunitions which made the
clashes to look like the terrorist attacks in many instances where they occurred (Adebajo,
2018). The intensity and casualty of the conflict are more pronounced in the North Central
Nigeria, which also refers to the Middle Belt. The orgy of the conflict between the Christian
farmers and Muslim pastoralists has further exacerbated the already overstressed the
insecurity situations in the region. The most affected states are Benue, Taraba and
Nasarawa due to the intensity, gravity and number of casualties. In Benue state, between
2014 and 2016, eleven local government areas were under persistent attacks by the
herdsmen causing the death of 4,194 Christians while 2,957 were injured (Ngbea and
Ngbea, 2019). On the other hand, the pastoralists lost 214 people and 3200 cows (Ngbea
and Ngbea, 2019). On January, 2018, 73 people were hacked down in Benue state in a
violent reaction by the pastoralists against the implementation of the anti-grazing law by
Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue state (Sarwuan, 2018). In Nasarawa state, pastoralist-
farmer conflict has occasioned community disintegration, social disarticulation,
destruction of lives and property and the cycle of displacement with associated risks and
vulnerabilities (Adebajo, 2020).
Apart from posing serious threat to national security, the incessant clashes between herders
and farmers have also affected human security, especially in areas of food security,
employment, wealth creation and peaceful co-existence among the inhabitants of the
affected communities in the region. Since 2018, the clashes have spread to other parts of
the country such as Zamfara, Rivers, Ekiti, Enugu, Ogun, Bayelsa, Delta, Oyo and Kwara
states. The clashes between the two groups have caused the death of more than 10,000
people in the last decade, almost 4,000 of them in the last two years alone (Amnesty
International, 2018). Also, between 2010 and 2015, Nigeria lost 6,500 citizens and 62,000

31
others were displaced from their homes in 850 violent clashes between herdsmen and
farmers in the middle Belt region of the country (Njoku, 2018). In January 2018 alone, 168
people were killed as a result of herdsmen-farmer clashes, while over 18,000 people were
internally displaced in 11 camps in Nasarawa state (Ugwumba, 2018). It is worthy of note
that incessant clashes have also led to increase in interstate migration, which can lead to
overpopulation at the receiving host communities that are relatively safe. The prices of
food materials have increased in the affected states while displacement problems have
escalated because of the influx of people from the Benue state to the Neighbouring states
while those that remain in the villages are afraid to travel to farms in remote locations due
to fear of being raped or killed.
Climatic change, Resource scarcity and Pastoralist-Farmer Conflict in North Central
Nigeria: The nexus
Climate change has become one of the global issues affecting humanity. The negative
effects of climate change and its variability cannot be underestimated in many West
African states particularly Nigeria. In the Northern part of Nigeria, climate change has
constituted a security risk in the 20th
century. As noted by Agbegbedia (2015), between
1930s and 1950s, acute drought has been witnessed to having negative impacts on human
and animal lives, and also increasing incessant migration by the pastoralists from the arid
West African nations such as Mali, Niger, Cote’d Ivoire to North Central Nigeria rich in
water, grasses and other environmental resources. Climate change affects availability of
water, grasses and other natural resources. For instance, the drought that occurred between
1970s and 1980s as a result of climate change led to stiff competition of resources between
pastoralists and farmers. Every form of ecological complementarity between the two
agricultural groups was under stress. There is shortage of annual rainfall needed for the
growth of grasses and water supply for the pastoralists use. Due to climate change, soil
erosion, flooding and depletion of soil fertility has made farmers to move from one place
to the other, thereby encroaching the grazing routes and grazing reserves of the pastoralists
(Conroy, 2017). As a result of climate change, annual rainfall has been affected leading to
scanty grasses which the pastoralists need (Audu, 2014).
Climate change has led to environmental degradation in the Northern Nigeria. The
persistent climate change has increased non-availability of natural resources, causing
herders to move from other parts of Nigeria. In terms of water availability, climate change
has already reduced its supply drastically affecting agricultural production. Despite the
Nigeria’s National Agency for the Great Green Wall initiative to establish tree
plantations, build water-retention ponds and other basic infrastructures to enhance

32
agricultural productivities, nothing has been achieved which further pushes the pastoralists
south ward causing conflict with the farmers. Increasing evapo-transpiration, temperature,
desertification, land degradation, extreme weather related events like lighting,
thunderstorms, floods, landslides, droughts, bush fires, among others, have recurrent
phenomena in Nigeria (Ikpe, Sawa and Ejeh, 2017). For instance, in Katsina, Sokoto,
Maiduguri and Kano, increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in the recent time have
caused desertification and droughts causing pastoralists to migrate (Ikpe, Sawa and Ejeh,
2017).
Change in climatic condition has significantly contributed to the problem of resource
scarcity in most countries of the world, especially in developing countries like Africa where
the effect of climate change has been more devastating. The irreversible negative impacts
of climate change manifest in the form of droughts, floods, outbreak of diseases, incessant
migration and food shortages. When the farmland becomes infertile, it leads to stunted
growth of green plants, therefore making it difficult for both man and animal to meet their
nutritional and economic needs (Haider, 2019). In view of this, changes in climatic
conditions and scarcity of natural resources like water and grazing land have been adduced
to be factor responsible for the incessant clashes between farmers and herders in the North
Central region of Nigeria.
Corroborating the view that climate change and resource scarcity constitute significant
factors causing incessant clashes between the pastoralists and farmers, Anastasia (2018)
argued that the scarcity of natural resources had led to conflict triggered by competition
over the meagre resources available. This is because the imbalance between human needs
and food availability, as predicted by Malthus can lead to famine, disease and war
(Matthew, 2008). While the imbalance between human needs and the available resources
could be referred to as the lack of enough natural resources like water, grazing land and
infrastructural facilities needed by the two conflicting agricultural practitioners and this
has degenerated into violent clashes in the North-central region. There is always intense
struggling between two agricultural groups over water and other resources. Continuous
deforestation without replacement exacerbates climate change issues. Clearing forests for
farming, burning crop residues, raise large herds of cattle, fertilizing with nitrogen, release
gases to the atmosphere and all this affects environmental growth and development
(Agbegbedia, 2015).
Lack of freshwater as a result of insufficient rainfall caused by persisting climate change
without any mitigating measures has led to migration of pastoralists pitching them against
the farmers. Due to scarcity of water, farmers also extend their activities into the areas

33
considered fertile which are also used by the pastoralists especially fadama areas. As noted
by Haider (2019), the Sahara desert has taken over 35% of the landmass in Nigeria, which
further extends to the South at the rate of 0.6% kilometer a year, coupled with deforestation
taking place at 3.5% per year (Conroy, 2017). The implication is that Nigeria is being
affected by the climate change making it to lose about 2,168 square kilometers of crop
lands to desertification, affecting means of livelihood of about 40 million people (Aremu
and Abraham, 2018). Since the beginning of the 19th
century, there has been a shortage of
rainfall in the core North of Nigeria affecting crop yield. In the Northern states of Nigeria
like Borno, Gombe, Bauchi, Kaduna, Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Kebbi, Yobe and Zamfara,
there has been a 450% increase in the sand dunes due to climate change (Conroy, 2017).
35% of the land cultivated about fifty years ago is not useful for farming activities
constituting a threat to the economic survival of the pastoralists (Conroy, 2017).
The unmitigated effects of climate change have created a dearth of environmental resources
like water, pasture and habitable ecosystem which has predisposed both farmers and
herders to adopt migration as a coping strategy. The farmers have adopted shifting
cultivation as a coping mechanism to avoid infertility of the soil caused by degradation and
droughts, but the effect of this is an encroachment of grazing routes (burtali) and grazing
reserves. The prevalent and recurrent pastoralist-farmer conflict in the North central region
of Nigeria is as a result of the unmitigated climate change and its variability leading to
scarcity of environmental resources acting as a pushful factor to the herdsmen embarking
on persistent migration across nations in order to escape the negative effects of droughts
and desertification. For instance, the Fulani herdsmen maintained that they move around
the country and national boundaries simply because of the vicissitudes of climate change
and resource scarcity. As a matter of fact, the influx of the pastoralists into the North
Central states such as Benue, Nasarawa, Plateau, Kogi, Kwara and Taraba is to have access
to natural resources. In Benue state particularly, River Benue and Katsina Ala and their
tributaries make water supply available for agricultural purposes and they tend to attract
the pastoralists who need the water resources for their cattle. In the course of accessing
the environmental resources such as water and grasses, crop destruction ensues and when
there is no appropriate mechanism to manage any dispute arising there from, violent
conflict erupts leading to loss of lives and properties. It must be pointed out that there is
scarcity of natural resources in the Northern region which happens to be the abode of the
herders necessitating their constant migration from the arid north to sub humid South. The
operation of the two conflicting agricultural practitioners in the North Central region with
the same need and clashing interest has been the basis of violent clashes and reprisal attacks

34
in the region. The failure of government and other key actors to take pro-active measures
in addressing issues of change in climate and resource scarcity have made pastoralist-
farmer conflict to become more intractable causing more destruction to lives, property and
massive displacement of people in the North Central Nigeria. It has continuously given
room for criminality, violent communal clashes, cultural discrimination, ethnic hatred,
political inequalities and occupational differences between the two opposing agricultural
practitioners.
Conclusion
The study has examined the connection between climate change, resource scarcity and
incessant destructive pastoralist-farmer conflict in the North Central Nigeria. The
unmitigated climate change causes drought, desertification and scarcity of environmental
resources. Resource scarcity forces herders to move from one place to the other in search
of the ecological resources which are dwindling drastically as a result of a harsh climate
change thereby increasing the preponderance to violent conflicts with farmers. The
pastoralists adopt migration as an adaptive strategy to protect their economic interest.
When economic interest of the two agricultural groups are threatened, conflict becomes
inevitable. Lack of conflict management mechanisms has made the conflict intractable
generating socioeconomic challenges in the affected states.
Recommendation
Based on the findings of the study, the following recommendations are suggested;
i. There is a need to enforce environmental protectionist policies to combat human
activities which are not eco-friendly, but contribute to increasing climate
change in the area.
ii. The introduction of mobile courts for the immediate prosecution of those in the
habit of degrading the environment through bush burning, deforestation and
water pollution and this should be carried out by government at all levels in
order to ensure compliance.
iii. More awareness should be created at formal and informal educational levels on
the danger climate change constitutes to humanity, particularly on how it can
cause violent conflicts. This can be better achieved through introduction of
climate change education in the school curriculum as a general study subject
from primary to tertiary level of education.

35
iv. Deforestation should be rigorously campaigned against by the National
Orientation Agency and non-governmental organizations. Efforts should be
intensified on the importance of afforestation in curtailing incessant climate
change and associated challenges.
v. As industrial activities can be responsible for the emission of green house gases
like carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, it is important that the government
encourages the use of hydro and solar energy machines so as to reduce the
emission of carbon dioxide into the air.
vi. Industrial firms should incorporate afforestation into their corporate social
responsibility in order to minimize the negative effects of industrial gas
emission.
vii. Considering the fact that climate change and resource scarcity prompt
pastoralists to migrate across national borders, public-private partnership
should be encouraged in establishing ranches for the pastoralists. Farmers can
also engage in the business of planting grasses for sale to the pastoralists to
generate income.
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science/causes-climate-change_.html

39
Spatial Analysis of Industrial Activities and Their Pollution Effects on Sustainable
Water Demand in Enugu Environs, South Eastern Nigeria
1Ogbu, S. Okonkwo and 2Nwosu, Ijeoma G.
1
Department of Geography and Meteorology, Enugu State University of Science and
Technology (ESUT), Enugu, Enugu State, Nigeria.
2
Department of Geography, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria
Email: simokogbu@gamil.com or ijeoma.ikejiofor@unn.edu.ng
Abstract
This study examined the spatial industrial pollution in relation to the sustainability in
domestic water demand in Enugu environs, Enugu state in order to identify the Physio-
chemical variables that affect the sustainable demand for water use in the study area. The
analyses of water samples on the pollution parameters were done with Project
Development Authority (PRODA) under the support of the Enugu State Ministry of
Environment and Mineral Resources. The results of the analyses were described using
descriptive statistics. The results show that the concentration levels of pH, iron, solids,
coliform, BOD, etc. increase the rate of water pollution, which affects the biodiversity and
sustainability of the environment. However, the values of other parameters such as COD,
nitrite, and sulphate are within the permissible levels. They contribute minimally in water
pollution and as such do not affect the use of water for domestic purposes within the
environment. This gives support to environmental diversity for sustainable development.
Therefore, institutional financial support and monitoring via regulatory policies and
management strategies should be put in place in order to sustain and protect the
environmental diversity for sustainable development.
Keywords: Enugu environs, environmental diversity, permissible levels, physico-
chemical pollutants, sustainability, water pollution
Introduction
With increasing economic growth and urbanization, diverse industrial activities take place
within the Enugu environment. This has given rise to infrastructural development,
availability of varieties of industrial products, employment and income generation which
contribute to the welfare of the people. However, the production processes of individual

Spatial Analysis of Industrial Activities and Their Pollution Effects on Sustainable Water Demand in Enugu Environs, South Eastern
Nigeria
40
industry require different raw materials that generate varying degrees of industrial by-
products or waste (Osibanjo, Daso and Gbadebo 2011). The volume of industrial wastes is
growing at an alarming rate, and unfortunately there is inadequate technology, resources
and manpower required to effectively manage these wastes in an environmentally safe
manner. If the residuals are not utilized via recycling, they become waste, and if discharged
into the biosphere, can become pollutants (Chukwu, 2005).
In most Nigerian cities, common means of waste disposal still remain open dumping on
water surfaces, land-filling in unlined sanitary landfill sites, open burning, incineration,
etc. (Adeyemo, 2003), and water resources seem to face severe quantitative and qualitative
threats as pointed out by Abdel – Raouf, Al-Homaidan and Ibrahim (2012). Water
represents at least 50% of most living organisms and plays a key role in the functioning of
the ecosystem. It is also a critical natural resource mobilized by most human activities.
Freshwater resources provide a wide range of goods such as drinking water, and other
domestic needs. It is the pillar sustaining development and maintaining food security,
livelihoods, industrial growth, and environmental sustainability. Thus, its depletion and
pollution affect the environmental diversity as well as sustainable development.
Today, the strategic importance of water and issues concerning sustainable water
management is universally recognized, but the pollution increase, industrialization
economic growth impose severe risks to availability and quality of water resources in many
areas of the world. Water quality degradation is quickly joining water scarcity as a major
problem in harnessing the environmental diversity for sustainable development. This is
because environmental damage can undermine the future productivity (Chukwu, 2005),
and environmental quality itself is part of the improvement in welfare that development
attempts to bring (Chukwu, 2005).
The main issue is whether industrial development which heavily relies on the environment
as the major provider of raw materials can actually take place without necessarily
destroying the environment. Also, in an attempt to continually harness the geographical
and ecological diversity of the environment, there is the need to keep to and strictly observe
the set environmental laws and standards. This is the reason for evaluating the surface and
groundwater quality of the Enugu environs as a result of industrial activities and compares
same with WHO/FMENV/NESREA standards. It is generally agreed that industries have
impact on the environment because most of them routinely discharge their wastes into the
environment. Spatial monitoring of water quality indicators is, therefore, essential for
assessing and or protecting the ecosystem in order to harness its diversity of sustainable

41
development. In this study, our objectives are to evaluate the pollution levels of the
industrial pollutants and to ascertain their conformity with the standards set by
WHO/FMENV/NESREA as a basis for protection of environmental health, safety and
sustainability. Also, it is to identify the polluted areas if there are any, for environmental
protection and remediation measures for continuity in the possible use of environmental
diversity. To achieve these, the study was conducted on different industry types at different
locations so that the spatial dimension of water quality for domestic use could be
determined.
Description of the Study Area
The study area covers 4 local government areas of Enugu East, Enugu South, Nkanu West
and Udi (Fig. 1). It is located within the urban and suburban areas of Enugu environs,
Enugu state, Nigeria. Thus, it comprises Emene, Ngwo, Ozalla, Amechi, Umueze
communities (Fig.1). It is delimited by latitudes 6o
10Ń and 6o
40Ń, and longitudes 7o
05É and 7o
40É. It is located within the largest city in the south eastern Nigeria and with
a population of about 858509 persons according to NPC (2006). Using an approximate
annual growth rate of about 2.83% this population was projected to 1,150,059 persons in
2018.
The study area consists of several residential areas and local communities as well as
different industries which include oil and gas, rubber processing, iron and steel production,
aluminium processing, sachet and bottled water productions, pharmaceuticals, foot mat
production, auto- repair workshops, concrete production, plastic and chemical
manufacturing. Wastes from these industries are collected and disposed via dumping at
dump sites, landfill sites, open burning, incineration, and channelled into nearly streams.
Thus, the quantity of water supplies is declining as a result of pollution in the areas. Water
pollution has affected both surface and groundwater in the study area as a result of
industrial activities, culminating in the discharge of effluents in the water bodies. Studies
show evidence of sewage and industrial effluent contamination. Emodi (2015) carried a
study of the impacts of industrial discharges on surface water and found that the impacts
of the industrial effluents on the receiving rivers manifested in various dimensions; high
level of turbidity (72), presence of dissolved and total suspended solids, high nitrate and
chloride levels, increase in phosphorous content, and presence of E, Coli. In these ways
both the surface and underground waters are polluted. In these ways both the surface and
underground waters are polluted. Water from these sources was investigated for water

Spatial Analysis of Industrial Activities and Their Pollution Effects on Sustainable Water Demand in Enugu Environs, South Eastern
Nigeria
42
quality parameters in order to determine their suitability for use especially in domestic
needs.
Fig. 1: Enugu Environs showing the study communities
Source: GIS office, Geography Department, University of Nigeria, Nsukka

43
Literature Review
Industrial processes and water related issues have been the bane of scholarly discussion
since the period of the industrial revolution. Water is penitent to industrial production from
raw material and final product, transportation, production, manufacturing and effluent
discharge. The demand for water for different purposes such as washing, drinking, cooking,
etc is affected by untreated effluent from industries. The industrial sector, even though
being a key driver of economic growth, also, contributes to critical environmental problem
such as water pollution (United Nation (UN), 2019). Kanu and Achi (2011) affirmed the
issue of water and industrial effluent in their study on industrial effluent and water
pollution. They did a correlation between water bodies and industries by studying effluent
from various industries such as pharmaceutical, soap and detergent, paper mill, textile, and
brewery. They discovered that effluents from these industries are sources of pollution of
water bodies which reduces the quality and subsequent demand and use by humans and
livestock. Reza and Singh (2010) studied the water pollution of industries at Augul-Talihar
belt of India. The study revealed that the principal sources of water contamination are
outlets of industrial discharges and runoff from mining, urban and agricultural practices.
Sener, Sener and Davrae (2017) evaluated water quality of the Aksu River in Turkey and
its sustainability. Using the water quality index (WQI) method, the result revealed that the
source of the main pollutant of the river is a waste from the leather and Mable factories.
Bhutani, Kulkammi, Khama and Gantan (2016) monitored the presence of heavy metal
around an integrated industrial estate in Haridwan, India. The heavy metals were found to
exceed the standard guideline limit. Two major factors that are responsible as revealed by
the result of principal component analysis (PCA) are anthropogenic and geogenic in nature.
Sayed, Bhuiyam, Chowdhury and Kabir (2015) studied the effects of industrial
agglomeration on water quality and discovered that the values of PH, DO, BOD, COD and
TDS exceeded the prescribed limits set by the local authority which indicates that the water
of Turag River and its peripheral wetlands have been polluted severely and it should not
be used in any purpose regarding human and animal life without proper treatment.
In Kumasi Metropolis, Ghana, Danquah (2010) discovered that the pollution of river
Aboabo was, among other factors caused by industrial activities which resulted in color,
taste, turbidity, odor, and fecal coliform count of the river exceeding WHO Drinking water
quality guidelines. This has reduced its quality and yields a significant health effect to
people living in the river basin. In Tanzania’s major towns and cities, solid and liquid
wastes are left untreated. As a result, air and water are contaminated with pollutants, a
major health hazard in the area. A study by Mohammed (2003) found that in Zanzibar,

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