This document provides a summary of a report analyzing the connections between organizations and reporters discussing the volatility of global commodity prices from January to March 2011. The report maps the relationships between organizations and publications or reporters that mentioned them. Key findings include Monsanto having the most influence based on mentions, while other influential organizations included the UN, World Bank, and FAO. Major publications and reporters that drove discussion are also identified.

1. Volatility of Global Commodity Prices
– a stakeholder mapping analysis
Jan – Mar 2011
© 2011 COMMETRIC. Influence Analyser Report
www.commetric.com

2. INA Analysis – An Overview
Overview
Influencer Network Analysis (INA) is a patented methodology which combined natural language processing and automated entity extraction, human analysis
and sophisticated mapping techniques. It enables the processing of a volume of data on press coverage and shows the inter-connections between all parties.
This opens up the chance for communication professionals to ask informed questions about these links, which in turn provides a report offering actionable
data which can enhance a press team‟s performance moving forward. It layman‟s terms – INA mapping shows up good questions to ask, a report such as this
answers them – the PR team can then act upon these findings.
Media Set
The analysed media set comprised 638 articles published in media in the 3-month period between 01 January 2011 and 31 March 2011. The stories were
mostly English-language in origin and coming from online sources from across the world.
This ‘sample report’ on the volatility of food prices
For anyone who wishes to influence a debate on a topic of national or international importance it is important to understand who the key participants are, and
how they are connected with each other. This report attempts to do that by identifying the top connections and explaining what they mean.
In exploring these connections in a deeper way, the INA methodology guides you into a better understanding of how experts, journalists, government officials
or company executives are linked. It shows you areas of common ground, it shows you where there are exceptions which may be of particular importance.
Objectives of INA studies include:
– Profile the organisations and organisation spokespeople engaged in media discussion
– Uncover the issues and topics that drive media discussion
– Discover unknown commentators, influencers and experts
– Discover common themes among seemingly unrelated commentators or media outlets
– Identify stakeholder opportunities to leveraging programs
– Analyze diffusion patterns and information flow
– Identify secondary media outlets outside the scope of key targets
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3. Executive Summary – The Growing Problem
Food Prices now at 2008 levels – the global benchmark year of food riots around the world
• According to the February edition of Food Price Watch, the World Bank‟s food price index rose by 15% between
October 2010 and January 2011, it was 29% above its level a year earlier, and was only 3% below its 2008 peak.
Panic buying, particularly by worried Arab nations
• With „revolt in the air‟ in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, Syria, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere this pressure on
demand has forced already high food price still further - “Importers are paying 20% more for a metric ton of wheat on
the Paris NYSE Euronext bourse than on the Chicago Board of Trade because they need cargoes now,‖ said Gautier
Le Molgat, a consultant at Paris-based Agritel, in early February.
Queensland floods
• Speaking at the Sustainable Phosphorus Summit at Arizona State University in early February, academic experts
Dana Cordell & Stuart White saw dangers in instability in the Middle East causing alarm in food security as near
monopolies of phosphate supplies that constitute (to a large part) fertiliser could be threatened if Morocco fell to the
current unrest.
Weakening dollar due to U.S. Fed quantitative easing has inadvertently pushed prices higher
• The US Federal Reserve‟s policy of quantitative easing inadvertently raised asset prices by buying U.S. Treasury
bonds to attack deflation. One side effect of this policy is that the dollar has weakened against other currencies, and
that is what commodities such as wheat or corn trade in; hence the rise.
Extreme examples of weather related incidents hitting crop yields in major food producer nations
• Climate change, or weather-related incidents have added to worries over supply being able to meet fast growing
demand. For instance, Argentina, Australia & Pakistan all suffered from particularly heavy rains which hit crop yields. Sinaloa (Mexico) flash frosts
Russia was recovering from a devastating 2010 drought and is reluctant to resume exports.
Affluence or increasing prosperity in emerging markets has led to increased demand
• Emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil soaked up a rapidly bigger market share of crops while recovery
in the world‟s biggest economy in the U.S was beginning, boosting demand. And news of a drought in north-eastern
China emerged, potentially making matters even worse; Shandong Province, which traditionally grows 20 per cent of
China's wheat, is facing its worst drought in 200 years. In other areas the big dry is the worst in 60 years.
The elephant in the room - oil prices
• The Moscow Times recently explained the sharp oil price spikes thus: “Now oil prices are determined not so much
by supply and demand — as was long thought to be the primary factor — but by financial markets. Most oil is
currently traded using derivative financial instruments that are not based on the physical exchange of crude oil
North-eastern China drought
between seller and buyer. In the1990s, physical transactions accounted for about 30% of oil traded, but they now
number less than 1%. In effect, oil has become a speculative commodity whose price is determined by how investors
anticipate its value will increase or decrease at a given point in the future.‖
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4. Executive Summary – The Lack of Solutions
Lack of investment in new agricultural techniques
• The yield growth in cereals during the 60‟s was around 3% a year. Today it is only 1.1%. There is a big decline because
we are investing less, the population is growing, incomes are increasing and people are moving to urban areas. The
result is that we are getting tighter markets: any small shock in the market will have a big effect, as we are seeing.
Climate change effects are liable to make matters worse
The modest warming that the world has experienced so far may not be the main cause of the floods, droughts and violent
storms, but the rise in temperature will continue because the world cannot find the political will to stop the greenhouse-
gas emissions. Computer modelling suggests that a rule of thumb is that we lose about 10% of world food production for
every rise of 1C in average global temperature.
Where are the policies to avert the impact of climate change on agriculture?
• ―Nobody has really thought yet about how and if we can mitigate climate change in agriculture," admitted Dr Josef
Schmidhuber, head of the global perspectives study unit at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO),
indicating that although there is a lot of talk about averting the impact of climate change, no policies have been
implemented yet to solve the problem.
The Foresight Report on Global Food and Farming Futures
Presented by the UK government‟s chief scientific adviser, Professor John Beddington, the report warned of a “perfect
storm” of a growing population, climate change and diminishing resources for food production. The findings were the
culmination of a two-year study involving 400 experts from 35 countries and as Beddington put it, highlights the case for
“decisive action and collaborative decision-making across multiple areas including development, investment, science and
trade” to tackle food challenges. President Sarkozy – Head of G20
World may see up to 50m environmental refugees by 2020
• Predictions made by Professor Cristina Tirado at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement
of Science: “When people are not living in sustainable conditions, they migrate.” She was backed by the University of
Michigan‟s Ewan Todd who spoke on how food scarcity was affecting world politics with likely migrant flows northwards
from Africa and the USDA‟s Ray Knighton who saw climatic incidents as tipping the balance. He also cited droughts that
make plants vulnerable to disease, floods that cause fungal infections, changing wind currents that spread disease
spores, suggesting that the transmission of Asian soya bean rust was a classic case.
Food & Energy security now critical to avoid conflict
• In advance of G20 meetings at the end of January, Indonesia‟ s President Bambang Yudhoyano publicly called on the
G20 to focus on food and energy security to avoid conflict as rising populations increase competition for natural Robert Zoellick
resources. President of World Bank
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5. Executive Summary – Solutions beginning, but conflicts continue
Arguments over GM/nanotechnology & other new technologies are still raging
• Scientists have warned that food prices could double unless farming undergoes the "greenest revolution"
including genetic modification, cloned livestock and nanotechnology, but Kirtana Chandrasekaran, Friends of the
Earth‟s Food Campaigner, warned that GM is not a silver bullet. “Hopes are pinned on GM technology but crop
science has moved on. Other technologies have delivered drought-resistant plants while GM crops have proved to
be a disaster for the environment and farmers,” she said referring to John Beddington‟s Foresight Report.
Solutions cannot be found with money & technology alone
• The World Watch Institute‟s ’State of the World’ report for 2010, spoke of „impressive success in terms of
productivity in major grain producers and some parts of Asia that have raised yields and reduced poverty.‟ It also
said that much of south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa was less successful due to under investment in agriculture. It
added that until recently most policymakers believed that the only route to advancing agriculture in these places
was to accelerate the so-called Green Revolution – provide more productive seeds and fertilizer and thereby raise
yields. In many cases this has not worked. The notion that world hunger can be eliminated with money and
technology alone is being discredited not just by its own shortcomings, but by evidence that new approaches to Food & energy prices go on rising
building a sustainable, nourishing agricultural system can supplement the innovations found in the standard
agricultural toolbox.
Need for standardised derivatives trading, & clear information on shared stockpiles to avoid
speculation
• Having been badly burnt by the banking crisis of no more than two years ago, there were signs that leading
western nations were particularly anxious about letting the market decide matters in such a finely-balanced
situation. So, the period was marked by frenetic activity by the G20 in the form of the incoming French Presidency.
Sarkozy argued that unlike oil, information on physical commodity stockpiles must improve (there was not a single
real calculation when Russia banned grain exports after a damaging drought in 2010). There was talk of investors
setting aside a deposit equal to part of the value of the raw material traded. There was also talk of a stronger body
being set up to make the trading of „standardised derivatives‟ more transparent, but, with funding being cut by
incoming U.S Republicans to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the European Market
Standards Authority having a staff of less than 100 to cover trading across 27 countries – the talk has yet to convert
to deed.
New thinking starting to come through
• Problems of this scale are bringing forward new thinking: in the UK, the James Hutton Institute was formed from
the merger of the Scottish Crop Research Institute (SCRI) and the Macaulay Land Use Institute, creating a
powerhouse for research into food, land use and climate change that will be the first of its kind in Europe.
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6. INA MAP: Organisations on Publications
Note: The Organisation to Publication map links the participating organisations in the debate (represented by circles) to the publications
(represented by squares) in which they received coverage. The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions the
organisation received, the colour shows the category it falls into. The width of the line is indicative of the number of articles in which the
publication mentions the organisation.
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7. INA MAP: Organisations on Publications - Key Findings
Organisations on Publications Organisation Index
Monsanto 42.7
On an organisational level, businesses, international organisations followed by NGOs figure
most on the Influencer Map. Noteworthy is just how few national government organisations FAO 41.1
figure per se, with the exception of the USDA. Although it is fair to say that individuals from UN 37.4
national government level seem to have exerted more influence in terms of mentions than
the institutions they represent have done – particularly when the debate is considered at a DuPont 35.4
Sub Topic level (see earlier map).
U.S. Department of Agriculture 35.2
In contrast, AAAS, the ISAAA, Rockefeller Foundation and Gates Foundation are far Syngenta 34.9
better connected into the main food price dialogue. However, both sets of groups are
located away from the strongest organisational drivers of the food debate: FAO, UN, World Cargill Inc. 34.8
Bank and the EU.
World Bank 34.5
Most businesses appeared to be to be found closely around the USDA. Although the map European Commission 34.0
points to connections only between Organisations and Publications , the location of
companies around the USDA can in some part be said to be reflecting the American Dow AgroSciences 33.4
market‟s crucial commercial importance to the agrochemical and food industry.
Many of the main agrochemical companies are clustered between 33.4 (Dow Publication Index
Agroscience) and 35.4 (DuPont). This organisation table reflects the clustering of Reuters.com 42.9
companies around key commercial markets (and the publications within them): in the EU &
the USA – with the USDA and European Commission appearing in the Top 10 centrality
table. Bloomberg.com 41.0
To a lesser degree, if these companies from the food and agrochemical sector are
theage.com.au 40.4
automatically appearing whenever food price volatility is under discussion, it may well
reflect the fact that journalists/publications see them as being likely sources for possible
longer term solutions to the wider issues (e.g. How to feed the world in 2050). This would Guardian.co.uk 39.6
in most instances be seen as an opportunity by communication professionals to shape the
debate still further. commodityonline.com 39.1
However, a note of caution is needed, this point may be less true in terms of short term
solutions (where prices in commodity markets are driven by factors beyond anyone‟s Trust.org 39.1
control).
With floods in Australia figuring prominently in the news in January, it is no surprise to see theglobeandmail.com 38.8
regional antipodean newspapers The Age and Scoop NZ in the Top 10 list.
hostednews.google.com 37.3
The prominence of Commodity Online is no surprise as it plays a leading role in shaping
the food price discussion. . Once again there are Antipodean publications in this top ten list,
as a result of the floods in Queensland at the start of the year. The Canadian publication Scoop.co.nz 37.0
Globe & Mail reflects the importance of farming in Canada, a major food commodities
producer and therefore a close follower of the debate on the volatility of the food price BusinessWeek.com 35.6
market.
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8. INA MAP: Organisations on Reporters
Note: The Organisation to Reporter map links the participating organisations in the debate (represented by circles) to the reporters
(represented by squares) who mentioned them. The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions the organisation
received, the colour shows the category into which it falls. The width of the lines is indicative of the number of articles in which the reporter
mentions the organisation.
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9. INA MAP: Organisations on Reporters - Key Findings
Organisations to Reporters Organisation Index
Monsanto‟s influence (in terms of mentions in this study) is ahead of all other Monsanto 41.3
organisations. There was a high profile legal challenge by activist groups of the USDA‟s
decision to permit Monsanto‟s GM alfalfa to be grown. FAO 37.2
UN 36.7
With the data for this study drawn principally from English language online sources, it
may explain the big lead Monsanto has over its competitors in terms of Centrality
U.S. Department of Agriculture 34.6
score. The fact is, though, with the dominant influence of US newswires and English-
speaking media, Monsanto is closely associated in the press with the future and
DuPont 34.0
prospects of new biotechnological solutions to address the issues of increased crop
yields. This study reflects that point and that is how it relates to the debate on the
World Bank 33.8
volatility of world commodity prices.
Cargill Inc. 33.4
Behind Monsanto one sees higher levels of influence on the map for FAO, the World
Bank and the UN - all of whom issued important reports that created a press impact
Syngenta 32.9
upon the debate surrounding the volatility of commodity.
People’s Bank of China 30.7
However, given the preponderance of international organisations at the top of the table
opposite, there might be a case for more communication work raising the profile of the
BASF 30.3
agrochemical companies as providers of the solutions the world needs to these
particular problems.
Newswires dominate with only Kevin G Hall (McClatchy), Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
(The Age), Ingi Salgado (Independent Online) & Andrew Marshall (Farm Online Reporter Index
Australia) breaking up this group. This excludes Megan Rowling, who was working for Luzi Ann Javier - Bloomberg.com 39.2
Trust.org which is part of the Thomson Reuters group, with this publication covering
humanitarian and famine relief news. Jeff Wilson - Bloomberg.com 38.7
There are plethora of other interesting findings thrown up through this mapping that are Megan Rowling - Trust.org 37.0
worthy of exploration: Michigan State University and University of California (via Carey Gillam - Reuters.com 32.8
reporter Karin Zeitvogel) have strong links with the U.S. Department of Agriculture
when measured against the stories for this period. Kevin G. Hall - McClatchy Newspapers 32.5
Journalist Kevin G Hall had strong connectivity with the U.S. Treasury, FAO and the Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - theage.com.au 31.8
U.S Department of Agriculture.
Rich Miller - Bloomberg.com 31.5
Fellow writer Andrew Marshall with the People’s Bank of China, FAO and the United
Nations. Rudy Ruitenberg - Bloomberg.com 31.4
Newswires guru, Rudy Ruitenberg sits strongly between FAO and the United Nations. Ingi Salgado - Iol.co.za 30.7
Journalists Charlie Dunmore, Elizabeth Farrelly gave NGO activist groups a hearing Charlie Dunmore - Reuters.com 29.8
on these issues – suggesting an interest in these causes on her part.
Andrew Marshall - farmonline.com.au 29.8
Correspondent Rich Miller seemed well connected with market analysts – all useful for
a would be communications executive seeking to identify the best set of journalists to
talk to.
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10. INA MAP: Influencer on Sub-Topics
Note: The Influencer to Topic map links the participating influencers in the debate (represented by circles) to the topics (represented by squares) with which they were associated in the coverage.
The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions the influencer received, the color shows the category he into which he falls. The width of lines is indicative of the number of
articles in which an influencer was associated with the topic.
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11. INA MAP: Influencer on Sub-Topics - Key Findings
Influencer on Sub-Topics
In terms of Influencers, the five topics listed in this chart seem somewhat fragmented Therefore, comments by such experts can quickly set off a fire storm of press interest in
suggesting there is chance for spokespeople or experts than can build a narrative across a particular area. Speaking at the AAAS event in February, the USDA‟s Ray Knighton
all areas to drive debate. saw climatic incidents tipping the balance . He cited droughts that make plants vulnerable
to disease, floods that cause fungal infections, changing wind currents that spread
The map indicates that three groups dominate: Government Officials, Experts & disease spores – suggesting that a classic case was the transmission of Asian soya
International Organisation Representatives. Although in one area of debate: „How to Feed bean rust.
the World in 2050‟ - there is an unusual cluster of Interest Group Representatives and in
the debate on International Commodity Prices one finds a batch of expert market Dana Cordell & Stuart White from the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University
analysts. Though, in the latter case, this is not unsurprising. This phenomena repeats itself of Technology saw dangers in instability in the Middle East causing alarm in food security
for International Political Leadership, where you find International Organisations and for as phosphate supplies could become in jeopardy. They spoke at the Sustainable
Climate Incidents (often crisis based) where one finds a preponderance of government Phosphorus Summit at Arizona State University in early February.
officials.
The sense of the unknown worrying the world commodity markets persists, even so, as
However, there is a sense from these maps that political players are now actively pursuing influential Australian media (http://theland.farmonline.com.au/ commented: ―Drought
solutions to the growing fear of a potential global food price crisis. At the centre of the across five provinces responsible for more than half China's 100 million tonne wheat crop
map major political figures link more than one issue: Barack Obama, Nicolas Sarkozy - could trigger a major foray into global markets - including Australia - by a nation which
and lesser ones; Caroline Spelman and Bruno le Maire who do so also. prides itself on being largely self sufficient in wheat. Shandong Province, which
There are other figures playing a fairly central role who are more „in reach‟ in terms of the traditionally grows 20 per cent of China's wheat, is facing its worst drought in 200 years.
potential to influence from an organisation‟s perspective; UK Chief Scientist, John In other areas the big dry is the worst in 60 years.”
Beddington introduced his groundbreaking report based on the findings of some 400
scientists entitled: „Global Food and Farming Futures‟ late January. Another is UCLA‟s
Cristina Tirado who predicted millions of environmental refugees by 2020, at the annual Topic Index
meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in February. The
impact of her comments - and fellow panellists Ewan Todd‟s, on how food scarcity was
International Commodities Market 43.1
affecting world politics with likely migrant flows point to the type of topics that the global
press are keen to report and the routes through which an organisation seeking to influence
world opinion could make them.
Political Reactions 39.9
Indeed, experts (more often than enough University or Institute based) have a big role to
play in shaping what is perceived to be such an uncertain and unclear debate. "Nobody
has really thought yet about how and if we can mitigate climate change in agriculture" International/Political Leadership 38.2
admitted Dr Josef Schmidhuber, head of the global perspectives study unit at the United
Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), indicating that although there is a lot of
talk about averting the impact of climate change, no policies have been implemented yet
to begin to address the problem. How to Feed the World in 2050 35.7
Gwynne Dwyer – ―Climate change is going to make the situation worse. The modest
warming that we have experienced so far may not be the main cause of the floods, Climate Incidents 32.9
droughts and violent storms that have hurt this year's crops, but the rise in temperature
will continue because we cannot find the political will to stop the greenhouse-gas
emissions. A rule of thumb is that we lose about 10 per cent of world food production for
every rise of 1C in average global temperature.”
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12. INA MAP: Reporter on Sub-Topics
Note: The Reporter to Topics map links the participating reporters in the debate (represented by squares) to the topics (represented
by circles) which they mentioned in coverage. The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions the topic
received. The width of lines is indicative of the number of articles in which a topic was mentioned by the reporter.
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13. INA MAP: Reporter on Sub-Topics- Key Findings
Reporter on Sub-Topics
Reporter Index
Runner up in the centrality table went to Rudy Ruitenberg, writing for Bloomberg. He Jeff Wilson - Bloomberg.com 43.7
published influential commentary that was picked up by many news sources such
as:―Smaller stockpiles may mean more gains in food prices the UN says reached a record
last month. Rising food costs contributed to protests across northern Africa and the Middle Nicholas Larkin - Bloomberg.com 43.7
East, driving up inflation and spurring central banks to consider higher interest rates that
may slow global growth.‖ Rudy Ruitenberg - Bloomberg.com 40.0
Reporting on a survey of market analysts by Bloomberg at the end of March, most
influential writer (he was joint top – see table to the right) Jeff Wilson recorded “U.S. corn Malkhadir M. Muhumed - The Associated Press 38.2
planting will expand this year to cover the second-largest area since World War II and still
fail to meet demand for feed and ethanol, driving prices to their highest in at least 34 Karin Zeitvogel - Agence France Presse 37.9
years.”
Fellow „leading opinion reporter‟ – joint top with Wilson - Nicholas Larkin‟s work helped Chanyaporn Chanjaroen - Bloomberg.com 37.9
drive the debate with stories such as ―Food costs are at ―dangerous levels‖ after pushing
44 million people into poverty since June, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said last
Luzi Ann Javier - Bloomberg.com 37.6
month. That adds to the more than 900 million people around the world who go hungry
each day, he said. It’s ―an incredibly difficult humanitarian story because the poorest
countries will be hit the hardest, as the average person is going to be swamped by food John Heilprin - The Associated Press 35.1
inflation. The new arms race is food and energy.‖
Peter Hartcher - smh.com.au 35.1
INA maps throw up specialists with „additional influence‟ in certain areas under review –
one example is Associated Press‟ Malkhadir M. Muhumed, an expert writer on African
comment. Sandrine Rastello - Bloomberg.com 35.1
Then there is AFP‟s Karin Zeitvogel, who reported on Rajiv Shah, administrator of the US
Nigel Hunt - Reuters.com 35.1
Agency for International Development (USAID), pleading with Congress for support on the
food aid budget as it faced the prospect of steep cuts: "This is the moment when America
must decide if we're going to engage and lead the world, actively using diplomacy, Brian Milner - CTV.ca 35.1
development and defence to improve human welfare and freedom," said Shah. "Or we can
decide to retract, leaving many of the poorest people, many of the most fragile countries
without assistance and support, and leaving other global powers like China to continue to Damian Carrington - Guardian.co.uk 35.1
make tremendous inroads and investments in places like Africa, and promote alternative
economic and political models.―
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14. INA MAP: Influencer on Reporters
Note: The Influencer to Reporter map links the participating influencers in the debate (represented by circles) to the reporters
(represented by squares) who mentioned them. The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions the
influencer received, the colour shows the category into which they fall. The width of arrows line is indicative of the number of
articles by the reporter that mention the influencer.
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15. INA MAP: Influencer on Reporters- Key Findings
Influencers & Reporters For instance movers and shakers in the Top Ten for the global commodities debate in
the first three months includes commodity market analysts: ―There’s no room for error
Influencers (marked with orange circles) sit at the heart of this relationship between the
anymore on farms around the world,‖ said Dan Basse, the president of AgResouce Co.,
press and the debate and headed up by Robert Zoellick and Barack Obama, one politician
a commodity consultant in Chicago. ―With any weather issues, we’re going to make new
and one leader of a global institution
all-time highs in corn and soybeans, and to a lesser degree, wheat futures.‖ Drought
ruined wheat fields in Russia last year, and too much rain now has diminished supplies
With the volatility of food prices taxing political minds there are several politicians amongst
of the grain from Canada. Similarly, adverse weather has led to a drop in 2010 corn
the Top 10. These include Bolivian Finance Minister Luis Arce, and several others that all
production in the U.S. and a smaller harvest of soybeans than expected, government
own the agricultural or environmental ministry briefs in their respective governments.
data show.
Many well connected reporters are clustered in the central region of the map; Nicholas
Larkin, Sandrine Rastello, Luzi Ann Javier, Jeff Wilson, David P Goldman, Rudy Food prices are going higher because there is competition for limited arable land to
Ruitenberg, Kevin G Hall and others (marked with red circles). boost supplies, said Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. in London. “Each time there were food price spikes in the last
These journalists form the hub (in most cases) of a large web of inter-connections with decade, there would be rotation from one crop to the next, meaning you would go from
influencers and comment – hence their prominence on this chart. Where a story is a bull market in one crop to the next crop each year,” Currie said. “What is different this
syndicated ,and featured more often, the line is at its thickest, the work of Karin Zeitvogel, time is that there is less capability to rotate land because strong demand is exhausting
Kevin G Hall & Ingi Salgado being the most obvious example on this chart. The map total arable land.”
points to links between journalists that are sourcing expert comment and the Industry
Association Representative they tend to ask on this topic (example Kevin G Hall). Influencer Index
Robert Zoellik‟s prominence stems directly from the influence that the World Bank Food Robert Zoellick - President, World Bank 17.1
Price Index has on press comment. It also reflects the impact of the frequent World Bank‟s
„Food Price Watch „ reports. His influence on the topic is enormous: ―Global food prices are
rising to dangerous levels and threaten tens of millions of poor people around the world,” Barack Obama - President, U.S. 16.4
said World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick. “The price hike is already pushing
millions of people into poverty, and putting stress on the most vulnerable, who spend more Han Changfu - Minister of Agriculture, China 15.7
than half of their income on food.‖ According to the February edition of Food Price Watch,
the World Bank‟s food price index rose by 15 percent between October 2010 and January Jeff Currie - Global Head of Commodities Research,
15.6
2011, is 29% above its level a year earlier, and is only 3% below its 2008 peak. Goldman Sachs
It would be fair to say that in a debate of this size it is hard for some organisations to reach Dan Basse - President, AgResouce Co. 15.4
and influence the leading world figures that are driving this debate directly. However,
although their huge influence is undeniable, as this study shows, it is possible to talk to the Farha Aslam - Analyst, Stephens Inc. 15.4
same journalists that cite them or to do so to the leading experts or market analysts that
advise them. Luis Arce - Minister of Finance, Bolivia 15.3
One of the advantages of INA mapping is that these connections become clearer. The map Caroline Spelman - Secretary of State for Environment,
15.0
suggests that a set of journalists have clustered around these key figures in the course of Food and Rural Affairs, UK
reporting this study – of course many will be reporting based on a press release, others
Bruno Le Maire - Minister of Food, Agriculture and
though would have been briefed by spokespersons for this figure or may even have had 14.6
Fishing, France
access directly. This means organisations and the communications teams can be using
mapping to find possible ways to talk to leading influencers directly or to discover channels Han Sung Min – Broker, Korea Exchange Bank Futures
13.9
via which they can do so. Co.
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16. INA MAP: Influencer on Publications
Note: The Influencer to Publication map links the participating influencers in the debate (represented by circles) to the publications
(represented by squares) in which they received coverage. The size of a circle is indicative of the overall number of mentions the
influencer received, the colour shows the category he falls into. The width of the line of the number of articles in which the publication
mentions the influencer.
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17. INA MAP: Influencer on Publications - Key Findings
Influencer Index
Influencers & Publications Caroline Spelman - Secretary of State for Environment, Food
26.5
and Rural Affairs, UK
The list of most influential in terms of direct links with tracked Influencers includes Robert Zoellick - President, World Bank 24.8
many that relate closely to their home or national market. However, the top four
figures stand out for the „international‟ nature of the message. Nicolas Sarkozy - President, France 23.9
Chief Science Advisor to the UK Government Professor Sir John Beddington John Beddington - Chief Scientific Adviser, UK Government 23.2
presented, via his groundbreaking report based on the findings of some 400
Tina Joemat-Pettersson - Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and
scientists entitled: „Global Food and Farming Futures‟ late January the notion that 22.0
Fisheries, South Africa
the world was facing a “Perfect Storm” and is at significant risk of facing multiple
interacting environmental and natural resource challenges by 2030. Clive James - Chairman, ISAAA 21.7
The Perfect Storm scenario is based on the interaction and cross-amplification of Barack Obama - President, U.S. 21.2
emerging food, water and energy shortages, which, on reaching a critical threshold,
could lead to public unrest, cross-border conflicts and mass migration. His Minister, Wen Jiabao - Premier, China 20.8
Caroline Spelman was to the fore in the presentation of his findings, explaining the Bruno Le Maire - Minister of Food, Agriculture and Fishing,
prominence of both in the centrality table. 20.8
France
Nicolas Sarkozy, in his role as Chair of the G20, spent the early months of 2011 Dan Basse - President, AgResouce Co. 20.7
pushing a plan to regulate the international commodity markets – based in part on
the fears that advisers such as Beddington were suggesting. 'We want regulation of
primary commodity financial markets,' said Sarkozy, who holds the rotating 2011 Publication Index
presidency of the Group of 20. 'How can you explain that we regulate money
Reuters.com 27.8
markets and not commodities? 'If we don't do anything we run the risk of food riots in
the poorest countries and a very unfavourable effect on global economic growth.
'The day there are food riots, what country at the G20 table will say this does not Bloomberg.com 26.4
concern them? I don't see a single one.”
BusinessWeek.com 22.9
As Minister of State for Agriculture in South Africa, Tina Joematt-Pettersson saw
floods hitting farmers in South Africa in the Northern Cape area, and she was
pushing to get biofuels higher on the political agenda – hence the presence of at Canada.com 21.8
least one South African source in the Top Ten for this INA map.
Guardian.co.uk 21.6
Clive James‟s ISAAA delivered a progress report on the extent and spread of GM
crops worldwide – an instant hit with the media, that extensively reported on how
NEWS.com.au 21.1
much land had been set to grow GMO crops since the subject matter came on the
scene.
bbc.co.uk 20.9
There was a big set piece visit of the Chinese Premier to the US in January, which
placed these two world leaders (Obama and Wen Jiabao) in the chart – as
theage.com.au 20.9
commodity prices & trade deals played a central role in their talks.
timeslive.co.za 20.9
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18. INA MAP: Country links on Reporters
Note: The Country to Reporter map links the participating influencers in the debate (represented by circles) to the topics (represented by squares) with which they were
associated in the coverage. The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions the influencer received, the color shows the category into which it falls.
The width of lines is indicative of the number of articles in which an influencer was associated with the topic.
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19. INA MAP: Country links on Reporters - Key Findings
Countries & Reporters Top 4 journalists – example stories
Jeff Wilson – Russia, Canada, Argentina & China
The Top Six countries in the Centrality Maps are all major „producer‟ countries: USA,
China, India, Australia, Brazil and Russia. Common to all are climate change impact • "There's no room for error anymore" on farms around the world, said Dan Basse,
incidents, uncertainty over production levels, political worry over subsidies (ethanol in USA) the president of AgResouce. "With any weather issues, we're going to make new all-
or concern over food security (Indian Parliament is shaping a food bill to this effect). time highs in corn and soybeans, and to a lesser degree, wheat futures.― (Seattle
Times: 12/01/11).
This period saw further growth in the Chinese-USA relationship with the Chinese PM, Hu Luzi Ann Javier – Middle East, Singapore, Haiti, Europe, Egypt, Russia, Canada &
Jintao, visiting Washington in January, and trade deals being done on the back of this visit. USA
It also saw initial reports of the worst drought in China in 60 years, which is threatening the
nation‟s wheat crop and leading many to worry about the potential effect on already high • Global warming may help lift the prices of corn, wheat and rice by at least two-
global food prices. With so many mouths to feed and urbanisation meaning less land is thirds by 2050, a study by the International Food Policy Research Institute showed in
producing, a jump in demand for staple crops from China or, even India for that matter, December. ―There is an increasing likelihood of a food crisis globally due to climate
would shatter the careful balance between food supply and demand. Hence the worry change,‖ South Korean President Lee Myung Bak told his secretaries on Feb. 7,
reflected in the markets. according to a statement. (Bloomberg: 15/02/11).
Rudy Ruitenberg - Egypt, China, Russia
Next in the table came Europe, whose principal concern as a group, at the start of the
• ―Importers are paying 20 percent more for a metric ton of wheat on the Paris NYSE
year, was fear of sharp rises in food prices could exacerbate Arab unrest, which was
Euronext bourse than on the Chicago Board of Trade because they need cargoes
spreading in the Middle East. Fear of environmentally inspired (lack of food) mass
now,‖ said Gautier Le Molgat, a consultant at Paris-based Agritel. (Business Week:
migrations northwards into the European continent alarmed European leaders. This
09/02/11).
accounted for Egypt and Tunisia‟s place in the Top Ten most discussed countries. Making
up the numbers at the top table were Argentina and Canada, both suffering from similar Kevin G Hall – Asia & Middle East
issues to the top six: often climate driven and inevitably connected to failure or far lower • Ed Yardeni joked that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke should be added to a list of
crop yields due to poor weather. revolutionaries, since his quantitative easing policy has provoked unrest and change
in the developing world."Since he first indicated his support for such a revolutionary
Given the trans-national nature of the issue of commodity prices, a lot of valuable comment monetary change last August, the prices of corn, soybeans and wheat have risen
is wrapped up in stories on pricing movement, where expert traders offer views on the 53%, 37% and 24.4%," he noted. "The price of crude oil rose 19.8% over this period
causes of sharp market fluctuation. Therefore, top journalists (those featuring in the Top 10 from $75.17 to $90.09. Soaring food and fuel prices are compounding anger
centrality tables that wrote more copy on the issue or who had stronger specialism in this attributable to widespread unemployment in the countries currently experiencing
area) reflected this in their stories. They were also mostly from the Newswire background – riots.‖ (Star Phoenix: 31/01/11).
providing communication specialists with a group of influential writers that they can easily
track or target in placing messaging of their own. • Other names featuring on the Top Ten most important journalists lists included:
John Heilprin (Associated Press); Megan Rowling (www.trust.org.com); Tony
Dreibus (www.bloomberg.com); Carry Gillam (www.reuters.com) and Edith
Lederer (www.ap.org). The work of this group of ten reflected the global nature of
the food price volatility issue that they were collectively covering, with some
specialising in aid related areas of the food shortage debate (Rowling) and others
being more conduits for commentary from the expert analyst community (Gillam).
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20. INA MAP: Country links on Publications
Note: The Country to Publication map links the participating reporters in the debate (represented by squares) to
the topics (represented by circles) which they mentioned in coverage. The size of a circle is representative of the
overall number of mentions the topic received. The width of lines is indicative of the number of articles in which © 2011 COMMETRIC
a topic was mentioned by the reporter. 20

21. INA MAP: Country links on Publications - Key Findings
Countries & Publications Geography Index
Closer investigation of the stories underpinning the USA‟s position at the top of the
centrality table lists brings out the frequently cited issue of timing, though it is clear it is not USA 56.2
just a single issue such as quantitative easing, as some pundits argue. Although the policy
was announced in August 2010, the U.S Federal Bank didn't begin purchasing bonds until
China 48.2
November and commodity prices were rising before then. "There are a lot of different
sticks in the fire here," said Jerry Gidel, the president of Midland Research Inc. What
happens to the price of one food crop affects others, he added, because "it is a human- India 42.2
consumption commodity, and things can get emotional, and they do get emotional. And
right now, we're kind of in one of those periods.“
Then there is China, not too far behind as a potential cause of market uncertainty – Egypt 41.2
according to the results of this study. According to the New York Times: ―China has been
essentially self-sufficient in grain for decades, for national security reasons. Any move by
Europe 40.7
China to import large quantities of food in response to the drought could drive international
prices even higher than the record levels recently reached”.
Other highlights of the period included the Indonesian President calling for urgent action Australia 40.7
on food security measures such as controlling commodity price speculation at the G20 at
the end of January.
Middle East 40.2
There were also some interesting country-focused special reports that reflected ties
between publications and countries – The Economist ran a „Special Report on Feeding the
World‟ – at the end of February. It strongly links into China, Mexico, India & Russia – Russia 39.8
suggesting these were among its strongest areas of focus.
With this map showing a slightly second level degree of granularity, Newswires still figure Brazil 39.3
strongly, but there are other stand out national news sources: www.bbc.co.uk and
www.guardian.co.uk another. The more frequently cited set of national publications were
Australian – a country which had seen devastating floods in Queensland and droughts in Indonesia 39.3
the west of the country. So noting the following: www.theage.com.au,
www.farmonline.com.au, www.dailytelegraph.com.au and www.ninemsn.com.au amongst
the Top ten most cited was no surprise. Tunisia 39.3
Similarly, as a major grain and wheat producer seeing www.theglobeandmail.com from
Canada, www.businessweek.com and www.sfgate.com from the USA were very much in Argentina 39.3
line with expectations.
•,
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22. APPENDICES
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23. Key Influencers Influential Organisations
Which type of individuals shape the debate
• In terms of Influencer Roles Government Officials shaped the debate with 37% of the mentions.
•Other forms of decision-making groups make up 11% of the mentions. These include: Politicians (7%), Government Agency Representatives (3%) and EU Officials (1%)
• Experts/Academics have a strong 17% of all comment, outstripping Corporate or Market Analysts – that have 7% & 8% shares, respectively
• Notable is the low share that people belonging to Interest Groups have in this discussion with only 8% of all mentions
Which organisations shape the debate
• Interest Groups (15%) as a „cohesive group‟ have more weight than they do as individuals in terms of potential influence in the commodity prices discussion. There are no
charismatic figureheads commanding media attention.
• Companies (25%) and International Organisations (26%) dominate, with more than half of all mentions.
• Just behind these two opinion forming groups sit Governments (10%) and Universities/Research Centres (9%)
• Market Analysis comment is small (3%) in relative terms, but punches above its weight in terms of Influencer roles (see chart on far left showing 8%)
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24. Which influencers or organisations drive this debate?
Which organisations influenced most?
• The agrochemical industry has a strong presence in the debate on food prices & food security, with its prominence in the table reasonably reflecting its position or strength in the
debate (find companies: 1st, 5th, 7th, 8th, 12th, 13th & 19th).
• However, four out of the top six places are held by institutions not companies (FAO, UN, USDA & AAAS). These bodies are driving the debate more than the food industry, leaning
heavily on science based reports & on public comments at meetings or press conferences.
• As science-based findings often originate from universities commissioned to carry this work out, this explains why there are also four Universities (in the shape of advisers or field
experts).
• Only one NGO – Friends of the Earth, who produced a report highlighting the cost of segregating GM crops around the world, made this list. In this report it argued that GM costs
would push food prices even higher.
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25. Top reporters Top publications
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