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Cotton 2
Table of Contents
First Major Writing
Assignment……………………………………………………………
………………………….2
Peer and Instructor Feedback
…………………………………………………………………………
…………….3
Father Sanchez (Revision 1)
..………………………………………………………………………
……………..4
Unit 6 Journal
…………………………………………………………………………
…………….6
Different Walks, One Purpose
…………………………………………………………………………
……………..7
Revised From the Start
……..…………………………………………………………………
……………..10
Works Cited
…………………………………………………………………………
…………....13
First Major Writing Assignment
“The relation between officers and men should in no sense be
that of superior and inferior nor that of master and servant, but
rather that of teacher and scholar. In fact, it should partake of
the nature of the relation between father and son, to the extent
that officers, especially commanding officers, are responsible
for the physical, mental, and moral welfare, as well as the
discipline and military training of the young men under their
command” (Lejeune, 1929). This very quote is the relationship
that is widely spread throughout my chain of command as well
as with my senior leaders’ involvement with the Marines who
serve under our commanding officer. I can relate to this quote
because it is the exact relationship that I shared with my former
Staff Noncommissioned Officer (SNCO). The relationship that
we shared was like the relationship of a father and son. The
reason I feel this way is because he never gave up on me, even
when I gave up on myself like the actions of a father or father
figure. That SNCO’s name was Staff Sergeant (SSgt) Sanchez.
He showed me how to lead the Marines under his charge as well
as showing me how to hold others accountable for their actions.
Some people may say “well that’s not a father figure”, well I
100% disagree. A father figure can be anyone who genuinely
cares about your safety and well-being. SSgt. Sanchez shared
that same attitude and love with all his Marines, but I felt he
added an extra boost into my life. As a young Lance Corporal of
Marines, I tried to stand out in everything that my name was
involved in. One day, SSgt Sanchez offered me the opportunity
to attend a Marine of the Quarter board and I immediately
accepted the offer without hesitation. On the day of the board, I
put on my uniform and SSgt Sanchez made a few minor
corrections to it. After attending the board and not winning,
SSgt still managed to encourage me when I was down and
instructed me to keep trying. I eventually won Marine of the
Quarter and a few other boards all with the help of SSgt.
Sanchez. His commitment, and care for the Marines under his
charge led us to winning 80% of the boards he put us on.
Without his leadership abilities and genuine care, I would not
be the Marine that I am today. SSgt Sanchez led me to believe
that a genuine concern and a father figure can come from
anywhere, even when its least expecting. His willingness to
want the best for us, is the same mindset that I try to instill in
the Marines currently under my charge. I can honestly say that I
was shaped by a Marine with high standards, love for the
Marine Corps, and a little bit of tough love.
Peer and Instructor Feedback
Trevionne Moses (Peer): The writing was straight to the point
and didn’t stray too far away from the topic. My overall
impression of this piece of writing is that it’s a decent, easy to
read paper. The writer’s goal in my opinion is to show the
readers that a father figure or mentor can come from anywhere.
This writing would fall under the narrative category because it
tells more of a story. You could also say it falls under argument
as well because he makes a claim and gives a few details, but
the paper isn’t strong enough to hold the argument. General
audience seems to be the target in this writing simply because
it’s on a topic that just about everyone could read and
understand and possibly relate to. The fact that the writer says
he's a marine instills credibility. Society views military
personnel as trustworthy people after all they are putting their
lives on the line to protect us all (US citizens). The emotional
appeal the writer uses is pathos and he does it by lightly
explaining how involved he was with his superior officer and
the encouragement he received. I think giving more in depth
examples would help appeal to the reader more effectively. Or
more facts on how military life is perceived from the outside
and show how that through his experience he found that it
differs from the outside assumptions. The examples given felt
rushed.
Professor Johnson(Instructor): You have a wonderful essay
with examples and different aspects that you cover. If you
choose to revise this essay, take another look at the organization
-- I've posted an outline in the Announcements that might be
helpful as you start the essay for Unit 2, and it could be useful
as you revise this essay later in the course. Take a look at this
link for details on using MLA style formatting for this
document: https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/747/13/
Louis J. Cotton
Ms. Heather Johnson
EN 105
14 April 2019
Father Sanchez
"The relation between officers and men should in no sense
be that of superior and inferior nor that of master and servant,
but rather that of teacher and scholar. In fact, it should partake
of the nature of the relationship between father and son, to the
extent that officers, especially commanding officers, are
responsible for the physical, mental, and moral welfare, as well
as the discipline and military training of the young men under
their command" (Lejeune, 1929). This very quote is the
relationship that is widely spread throughout my chain of
command as well as with my senior leaders' involvement with
the Marines who serve under our commanding officer. I can
relate to this quote because it is the exact relationship that I
shared with my former Staff Noncommissioned Officer (SNCO).
The relationship that we shared was like the relationship of a
father and son. The reason I feel this way is because he never
gave up on me even when I gave up on myself. Like the actions
of a biological father or father figure my former SNCO showed
his love with not only words but with actions as well. That
SNCO's name was Staff Sergeant (SSgt), Sanchez. He showed
me how to lead the Marines under his charge as well as how to
hold others accountable for their actions. Some people may say
"well that's not a father figure," well I 100% disagree. A father
figure can be anyone who genuinely cares about your safety and
well-being. SSgt. Sanchez shared that same attitude and love
with all his Marines, but I felt he added an extra boost into my
life.
As a young Lance Corporal of Marines, I tried to stand out in
everything that my name was involved in regardless of how big
or small the event or task was. One day, SSgt Sanchez offered
me the opportunity to attend a Marine of the Quarter board, and
I immediately accepted the offer without hesitation. As a Lance
Corporal, I felt honored that SSgt. saw something in me that I
hadn't even figured out for myself. On the day of the board,
SSgt Sanchez looked over my uniform and made a few minor
corrections to it. The committee consisted of seven higher
ranking individuals and eight other Marines from the
surrounding squadrons. After attending the board and not
winning, SSgt. encouraged me when I was down and instructed
me to keep trying because there would be plenty more
opportunities. After several practice boards and uniform
inspections, I eventually won Marine of the Quarter and a few
other boards all with the help of SSgt. Sanchez.
Although he showed a genuine concern for the Marines under
his charge, he still managed to lay the boot down when things
got out of order. SSgt. was often known as the man that was
easily approachable and motivated until the day that I showed
up 1 hour late. SSgt was a man of no excuses, and he expected
nothing but greatness from his junior Marines. After showing up
to the shop and getting negative counseling from my Sergeants,
SSgt called me into his office. After fifteen minutes of no
yelling but a calm talk of how disappointed he was in me, I was
left in a pool of tears. The tears that flowed down my face were
not tears of anger, but tears of sorrow because I had let SSgt
down. The effect that his words had on me showed that he did
not have to scream or yell to get his point across. On that day
SSgt taught me that sometimes just talking can have a more
significant effect on a person than yelling or belittling.
Without the leadership abilities and genuine care for the
Marines that served under SSgt. Sanchez, I would not be the
Marine that I am today. His commitment and care for the
Marines under his charge led us to win 80% of the boards he put
us on and having no significant issues over a period of one year.
SSgt Sanchez led me to believe that genuine concern and a
father figure can come from anywhere, even when it is least
expecting. His willingness to want the best for us is the same
mindset that I try to instill in the Marines currently under my
charge. I can honestly say that a Marine shaped me with high
standards, a genuine love for the Marine Corps, and a little bit
of tough love.
Unit 6 Journal
Name your audience. Write a paragraph or two explaining
exactly who should care about your subject and why. My
audience in this passage would be a veteran, a civilian, or
anyone that cares about the Marine Corps or anyone interested
in the impact that a change can have on a person in the military.
Junior Marines that are new to the fleet should care about this
subject because it will give them a slight look on how the world
views them on the outside and possibly serve as a wakeup call
for them that every one doesn’t like the purpose that you serve
and the country that you represent. They should also care about
this subject because they are the future of the Corps and can
further shape the image that represents us as an organization of
Pride and Honor.
Describe why you care about your subject. Passion can be
contagious. If you can depict your enthusiasm for your subject,
then many readers will feel that enthusiasm, too. I care about
this subject because I am a Marine. Often, I hear people say,
that Marines eat crayons, Marines only drink and cause
problems, USMC means Uncle Sam’s misguided children. All
those accusations are false, at least to my knowledge. I have
never seen anyone eat a crayon to its entirety but testing them
out to see if they had the grape flavor is a whole other story.
When I thought of this as a subject to write about, it came easy
because I love the Marine Corps and I hate to hear people make
false accusations.
Louis Cotton
Professor Heather Johnson
EN105
28 April 2019
Different Walks, One Purpose
Being in the Marine Corps has allowed me to the opportunity to
see new things, meet new people and gain knowledge in places
that I never thought I would be. In the Marine Corps
community, we often find friends from different walks of life,
some are black, some are white, some or Hispanic, some are
country, some are city people, and some are urban, but we all
come together to make one big weird family. From the day we
stepped off the bus to begin our boot camp journey, we all
began to speak the Marine Corps language without even
recognizing it. Upon arrival to boot camp, the little bit of
individualism that we entered boot camp with was stripped
away and replaced with the instant willingness and obedience to
all orders, respect for proper authority, self-reliance and
teamwork which is the definition of discipline. On day one of
boot camp, we were stripped of our names and given to title
recruit. Being in boot camp sharpened my competitive nature by
inspiring me to be uninformed with the person to your left and
right. It also inspired me to be better than my fellow recruits
when it came to the performance of the tasks assigned to us.
After thirteen weeks of misery, we had worked hard enough at
the crucible to transform from filthy recruits and earn the title
of well-respected and trustworthy Marines.
Upon completion of MCT (Marine Combat Training) and being
assigned to my first real duty station my personal experiences
helped me redevelop my sense of self. There were times when
the entire company would come together for accountability and
suggest ways that we could improve the unit. It was at that point
where language allowed me to express myself on a personal
level with the Marines around me. Often when I tried to talk to
people who were not Marines, they would call me weird because
they could not understand why I said "sir" and "ma'am" after
every sentence. Elaborating on my responses became second
nature when talking to civilians as well as my friends which
allowed them to feel just a little bit more comfortable. Learning
that the context of the words you use with others and how you
use them could speak volumes; without the slightest bit of effort
allowed me to save a few friendships. Keeping long-term
relationships with fellow Marines and childhood friends shaped
my transition back to a well-rounded person, which ultimately
led to me becoming a well-rounded Marine.
Navigating from the language that I use with my Marine Corps
friends and family is a lot different from the language at home.
Often, I find myself driving around listening to the gospel for
about thirty minutes to calm down and to transfer my mind from
Sgt. Cotton to Louis. Thinking over what I am about to say
several times before I say it has helped a lot with that process.
For example, when I am home, I speak in a low, calm tone like
"Can you hand me that remote" but with my Marines, I speak in
a sort of aggressive nature like "Get the hell off your phone and
go work" which usually works 90% of the times. When making
minor corrections, I always try to demand of them nothing but
the best and 100% effort. While at home, I often find myself
getting blown off, but we understand that if a task is supposed
to be done, we must work together to get it done. In the Marine
Corps we speak to each other in a language that originated from
our naval traditions like porthole which means window, deck
which means floor, and hatch which means door, to name a few.
Some common misunderstandings of the Marine Corps
community are that we are all brainwashed and some people
even call us Uncle Sam's Misguided Children. The Marine
Corps motto is Semper Fidelis, where we pride ourselves on
honor, courage, and commitment. Every aspect of the Marine
Corps has a rich history that dates to 1775. We are the
presidents very own 911 force in readiness. "Today, the
branch's combat operations include amphibious raid and assault,
antipiracy work, reconnaissance and surveillance, and
recovering hostages or aircraft and personnel. In addition to
conducting such work when called, the Marine Corps has
ongoing projects worldwide" (Rowell 50). The Marine Corps
must always be ready to protect against all enemies both foreign
and domestic. We were born to fight and win wars which we
have done since our founding. Our esprit de corps has enabled
us to protect each other as well as this great nation that we have
grown to love. The Marine Corps is a brotherhood/ sisterhood
built to have the "6" or back of every Marine that serves. We
sometimes fall to our knees, but there is always a brother or
sister to lift us to whether it be an officer or an enlisted
member.
If I had to do it all over again, I would still choose the
Marine Corps because being a part of something bigger than
yourself could make all the difference when everything begins
to fall apart. The Marine Corps is a different branch of service
that lets your inner self glow with the help of friends and
family, provides a chance for diversity in the home life, and
unique history of battles won regardless of the negative
opinions of others. It has enabled me to give a positive example
not only for the Marines but for my family as well. Although we
were born in different cities and town of the world and come
from different walks of life, we still manage to come together to
serve one purpose which is to protect our country against its
enemies both foreign and domestic. Contrary to popular belief,
the Marine Corps is not full of crayon eaters. Instead, it
represents servicemen and women who will do whatever it takes
to provide an protect their family. Former President Ronald
Reagan once said "Some people spend an entire lifetime
wondering if they made a difference in the world. Marines don't
have that problem" (Reagan). Marines are who they are because
of the language and culture that they represent.
Louis Cotton
Professor Heather Johnson
EN105
4 May 2019
Revised from the Start
The famous words of Drake "started from the bottom now we
here," is a true testament of my writing in EN 105. My writing
pieces have gone from little to no structure and organization to
average. At the start of this class, I knew that it would be
difficult trying to balance military life, provide for my family
and go to school at the same time but I knew that I had to find a
way to manage my time and responsibilities. I had first to figure
out how I would put the thoughts in my head on paper. I still
haven't figured out how to make it all make sense, but the idea
that I'm learning is motivating. Often, I found myself struggling
to find a starting point in my writings and remain on topic when
I started. The instructor feedback and peer review helped me
advance during the duration of this course.
Once I completed my first major writing assignment on
something I knew about, I gained hope. The thought of dropping
this class and just giving up on school ran through my mind a
lot before that assignment. I am reflecting on my first major
writing assignment which turned into my first revision project
that had no title and very little MLA format organization. My
purpose in that assignment was to describe a relationship I had
with an outstanding teacher or mentor. In that piece of work, I
was trying to say that a father figure can come from anywhere,
even when you're least expecting it. After reading over my
piece of writing and getting some peer review from my fellow
students, I could see in my initial draft where it lacked personal
examples that could help me appeal to the pathos aspect in my
writing. It was at that point where I came up with the title
Father Sanchez. Feedback from peer reviews and instructor
comments, helped me utilize different tools to make my writing
better.
Utilizing the writing journals and discussions have allowed me
to learn and identify different writing styles and make
connections that weave texts together. Doing this helped me
develop a deeper understanding of writing as a college student.
I did not read at all on the outside of high school that much
before this class. Being in the Marine Corps has given me so
many opportunities to advance and gain more responsibility,
which came with reading and understanding orders. I guess you
can say that I have learned to read with a pen. Underlining
critical parts of the texts allowed me to connect my inner
thoughts and eventually put them on the paper creating policy
letters and mastering the concept of writing with a purpose.
Writing, in general, has always been one of my weaknesses; it
was challenging to take the initial step past the high school way
of writing. Being able to make that transition was essential
because it gave me the necessary tools required to sustain a
logical argument in an organized manner. My writing has
become concise, and I no longer put things in a crazy order with
very little organization. Another improvement is my ability to
point out many complexities within a text instead of sticking to
one-sided arguments in my papers. Furthermore, learning how
to use my peer review and instructor feedback has led to better
articles with credible references.
As a student in this English class, I have learned how powerful
the written word and language can be. Words tell so much more
than just a story. Stories tell about life and the human condition
that reflect on the past and present cultures. Literature teaches
about a world of changes. From this class, I have learned about
the world and how it reacts to the changes made for its people.
By writing about what we learn enables us to be able to express
ourselves on a whole other level.
There are a couple of things that I do feel I lack the confidence
and skill to perform and that is what I hope to gain from
participating in future peer reviews. At the start of this class, I
didn't know how to share my knowledge with other students
who possibly had no idea what I was talking about or the point I
was trying to make. Learning to understand and balance my life
and school enabled me to learn how to write various styles of
papers in different forms. At this point in the class, I feel
confident that I could write an article about almost anything and
know how to cite and format it correctly.
Works Cited
HQMC (Headquarters Marine Corps). 2016. Sustaining the
Transformation (MCTP 6-10A). Quantico, VA: HQMC.
Accessed March 24,2019.
https://www.marines.mil/Portals/59/Publications/MCTP%20610
A%20(Formerly%20MCRP%206-11D).pdf?ver=2016-06-27-
165407-453
“Ronald Reagan Quotes.” BrainyQuote, Xplore,
www.brainyquote.com/quotes/ronald_reagan_386887
Rowell, Rebecca. The US Marine Corps. ABDO Publishing,
2015. EBSCOhost,
search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&AuthType=sso&d
b=nlebk&AN=796215&site=eds-live.
Option #1: The Recovery Plan Project
Read the Recovery Plan project:
Van Wyk, Bowen, & Akintoye. (2008). Project risk management
practice: The case of a South African utility company (Links to
an external site.). International Journal of Project Management,
26(2), 149-163.
1. Examine the project management issues detailed in the case,
including those concerning procurement, contracts, and risk
management.
2. In no more than one page, give an overview of the case and
the project management issues to be covered in more detail.
3. Discuss, in logical order, the following topics: (Note: You
must determine the logical order of these topics; this is part of
your grade. See the grading rubric in this week’s folder.)
· Risk identification
· Risk assessment and prioritization
· Risk response for prevention
· Mitigation or contingent actions
· The fundamental conceptual steps used to respond to project
risks
· The strengths and weaknesses of the project risk management
practices
4. In an appendix, identify the risks and categorize each one.
(This categorization is left to you; however, you might include
external risks, such as regulatory and currency changes, or
technical risks, such as complexity or design.) You must discuss
the appendix in the body of your paper. In other words, do not
simply say “see appendix,” but rather explain what the appendix
covers.
5. Discuss the prioritization of the risks identified, their
severity, and the management response strategies
Submission:
· Write a paper addressing the Recovery Plan project. Your
paper should be 8-10 pages in length, not including the required
title and references pages and the appendix.
· Support your paper with a minimum of three to four current
scholarly sources from the CSU-Global Library (no older than
five years). This is in addition to any course textbooks or
lecture material you decide to use. Of course, you may always
exceed the minimum number of sources.
· Assess and critique the risk response strategies used and
identify a minimum of three new recommended risk response
strategies in response to the risks identified.
· Format your entire paper according to the CSU-Global Guide
to Writing & APA (Links to an external site.).
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
www.elsevier.com/locate/ijproman
International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163
Project risk management practice: The case of a South African
utility company
Riaan van Wyk a, Paul Bowen b,*, Akintola Akintoye c
a Electricity Supply Commission of South Africa (ESKOM),
South Africa
b Department of Construction Economics and Management,
University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7700, South
Africa
c School of the Built and Natural Environment, Glasgow
Caledonian University, Cowcaddens Road, Glasgow, Scotland,
UK
Received 26 October 2006; received in revised form 26
February 2007; accepted 20 March 2007
Abstract
This paper documents the risk management practice of a utility
company for its Recovery Plan project to address the risks of
power
interruptions due to a shortfall of supply and increasing
electricity demand. The company’s corporate risk management
process and its
practice at divisional and project levels are discussed. The key
role of stakeholders in risk identification, analysis, mitigation,
monitoring
and reporting is emphasised by the company and this drives its
risk management practice. Despite the level of resources
available within
the company to use more sophisticated risk management tools,
the company adopts simple risk management methods
suggesting that a
large size company does not necessarily use ‘state of the art’
risk management techniques. Recommendations for improved
practice are
made.
� 2007 Elsevier Ltd and IPMA. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Risk management; Utility; Case study; Stakeholder;
Electricity; South Africa
1. Introduction
Risk management continues to be a major feature of the
project management of large construction, engineering and
technological projects in an attempt to reduce uncertainties
and to achieve project success. Miller and Lessard [1] have
argued why large engineering projects should be carefully
managed given that they are ‘‘high stakes games’’ charac-
terised by substantial irreversible commitments, skewed
reward structures in case of success, and high probabilities
of failure. In addition, they categorised the risk associated
with different types of projects ranging from oil platform
projects, nuclear-power projects, hydro-electric-power pro-
jects, urban transport projects, road and tunnel systems,
and research and development projects. They are of the
opinion that power projects possess moderate risks in so
far as engineering is concerned, but are very difficult in
0263-7863/$30.00 � 2007 Elsevier Ltd and IPMA. All rights
reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.03.011
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +27 21 650 3445; fax: +27 21 689
7564.
E-mail address: [email protected] (P. Bowen).
terms of social acceptability. Elkingston and Smallman
[2] examined project risk management practices of British
utility companies given that the utilities sector (comprising
water, power, telecommunications) is associated with less
predictable projects which are perceived to be riskier than
day-to-day business activities. They argued that risk man-
agement is an integral part of project management in this
sector; hence, most large companies put substantial
resources into the management of their business risk.
The current paper presents the risk management of a
Recovery Plan project of the Eskom Holdings Ltd. power
company in South Africa. Eskom Holdings Ltd. is wholly
owned by the South African government. The company
is a vertically-integrated operation that generates, trans-
mits, and distributes electricity to industrial, mining, com-
mercial, agricultural, re-distributors and residential users.
It is also involved in the purchase and sale of electricity
to and from South African Development Community
(SADC) countries, comprising Botswana, Mozambique,
Namibia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zambia.
mailto:[email protected]
Shantelle Hildred
150 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project
Management 26 (2008) 149–163
The company’s business is divided into a number of divi-
sions: Generation, Transmission and Distribution;
Resource and Strategy; Finance, Key Sales and Customers
Services; Enterprises; Human Resources; and Corporate
and External Relations. The group has many main subsidi-
aries, with the core businesses including non-regulated elec-
tricity supply industry activities, the provision of electricity
supply and related services outside South Africa, the grant-
ing of home loans to employees, the management and
insurance of perceived risks to Eskom, and social invest-
ment initiatives. The company’s revenue in the 12 months
of the 2005/2006 financial year was R36,607m
(US$4947m or £2662m)1 and employed some 29,697 per-
sons (excluding contract and temporary workers). This
paper does not add to the theory of risk management.
Rather, the purpose is to document rich case study material
indicating the practice of risk management and the extent
to which practice and theory converge/diverge. One of
the authors is currently employed by Eskom in a project
management capacity, thus facilitating access to the case
material presented here.
The case study has been structured into four parts: Part
1 describes the corporate risk management process of the
holding company. Part 2 presents the risk management
process of a division of the company; the distributive divi-
sion being used for this purpose. Part 3 presents the case
study of a Recovery Plan project of the division to address
the risks of power interruptions due to a shortfall of supply
and increasing electricity demand. Part 4 documents the
conclusions emanating from the study. The lesson from
the case study is that a (very) large company with an appro-
priate level of resources may not necessarily use sophisti-
cated risk management tools; rather, simple methods that
enable the company to mitigate the risks faced by the busi-
ness are adopted.
2. Corporate risk management within Eskom Holdings Ltd.
Risk management within Eskom is an important and
integral element of the business. Given the importance of
risk management, the company has a dedicated Risk Man-
agement Committee (RMC) as one of its seven primary
committees (the other committees are the Board commit-
tee, audit committee, tender committee, human resources
committee, remuneration and ethics committee, sustain-
ability committee, and executive management committee).
The RMC comprises three non-executive directors, the
finance director and the managing director (Generation
division). The RMC is chaired by an independent, non-
executive director. The committee is tasked with ensuring
that the company’s risk management strategies and pro-
cesses are aligned with best practice. It also deals with
1 Exchange rates as at 7th September 2006: R7.40 SA Rands =
US$1;
R13.75 SA Rands = £1.
the company’s integrated risk management strategy and
processes, these embracing risk tolerance and appetite, risk
accountably, major risk exposures, and emerging risk
issues.
Eskom practices an integrated risk management strategy
and process by identifying risks and opportunities against
business objectives during risk assessments throughout
the organisation, from both a line and functional perspec-
tive. Risk integration between divisions and subsidiaries is
reviewed by the RMC to ensure a coordinated approach to
risk mitigation measures. Key risk management ‘‘buzz
words’’ feature prominently in the company’s risk manage-
ment process, as depicted in the company’s 186 page 2006
annual report (http://www.eskom.co.za/annreport06/).
The risk prefixes that are contained in the annual report
include: exposure, assessment, accountability, internal con-
trol, matrix, categories, mitigation measures, tolerance lev-
els, categories, identification, evaluation, appetite, profile,
audit, financing, issues, process, ownership, etc. A content
analysis of the annual report shows that the word ‘risk’ is
mentioned 206 times whilst the term ‘risk management’ is
mentioned 56 times; these being explicit indicators of the
importance that the company attaches to the risks to which
it is exposed. Risk categories that the company faces are
defined in the company’s risk matrix, and include: finance,
technical, environmental, legal, human resources, informa-
tion, stakeholders, regulatory and strategic.
The remit of the company’s Risk Management Commit-
tee (RMC) is to ensure that Integrated Risk Management
(IRM) is applied throughout the Eskom business. It
reviews the risk processes and all major risks within the
business and reports back to the Board. Integration
between the various Eskom divisions and subsidiaries is
ensured via the interaction of the different risk (or risk-
related) committees. Each division within the company
handles its own Risk Management System and may have
slightly different risk approaches within each of the six
regions: Western; Eastern; Northern; North-West; South-
ern; and Central. This diversity is allowed as long as it sup-
ports the strategy and milestones set by the RMC which
encourages a coordinated and common approach for the
business as a whole.
Eskom has adopted the Code of Practice published by
the Institute of Risk Management of South Africa. In
addition, it has developed its own methodology for deter-
mining the ‘value’ or weighting for specific risks faced by
the company. These weightings are used to assist the
organisation to better identify which risks should receive
priority and also show the value of risk mitigation mea-
sures. Aligned to this valuation methodology there are
risk tolerance levels for each division and main subsidiar-
ies, together with risk appetite parameters for each func-
tional risk area. Being a South African utility company
with a wider remit for the sale and purchase of electricity
from neighbouring countries, the company has identified
some risks that it considers it faces. These are depicted
in Table 1.
http://www.eskom.co.za/annreport06
Table 1
A list of key risks faced by the company
Key risks
1. Regulatory risk that encompasses the need for clear
regulatory
framework and adequate price increases to ensure long-term
sustainability
2. Future capacity, where the following needs to be addressed:
a. The availability of capacity in the long-term
b. The impact of new capital projects on the overall business
c. The ongoing ability to maintain consistent supply
d. Aging plant and increasing plant performance indicators
3. Debt management of small power users
4. Non-technical energy losses where the theft of conductors
results in
the lack of supply of power and the potential for injuries to the
public
5. The ability to respond to changes in the industry arising from
the
proposed new Electricity Supply Industry in South Africa while
meeting the shareholder’s objective for the company
6. Shareholder relationships with the focus on the ability to
manage
the different expectations of the shareholder and government
departments in terms of Eskom’s business objectives
7. Information security, management of the outsourced
information
technology service contract, lack of skills and resources, and
infor-
mation technology business continuity management
8. Availability of the skills required for the future business
needs
including skills retention, training and succession planning. The
impact of HIV/AIDS is also addressed as a component of this
key risk area
2 The King Reports on Corporate Governance (King I and King
II),
published by the King Committee on Corporate Governance,
aimed at
promoting the highest standards of corporate governance in
South Africa.
More specifically, the King I Report dealt with financial and
regulatory
aspects of corporate governance and, in addition, advocated an
integrated
approach to good governance in the interests of a wide range of
stakeholders. With the publication of the King II Report, in
terms of
which risk management received official consideration for the
first time in
South Africa, companies are now required to audit risk exposure
on an
annual basis and disclose it to their shareholders. In addition,
King II
acknowledged that a company’s activities are more than profit
to
shareholders, embracing economic, environmental and social
aspects.
R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management
26 (2008) 149–163 151
3. Risk Management System within the Distribution Division
Given that each Division and each region within the
company handles its own Risk Management System, risk
management within the Distribution (Western Region)
Division forms part of the responsibilities of the Business
Planning and Integrated Risk (BPIR) Committee which is
led by the BPIR Manager. BPIR is therefore a subcom-
mittee of the Regional (Western) Executive Committee
(REC). BPIR duties focus on a holistic business planning
and integration function, which includes all associated
risks. The REC appoints the members and chairperson
of the BPIR committee, who, in return, report back
and advise on all Region’s business risk-related matters.
Membership of BPIR consists of REC members, subject
matter experts and other Eskom officials. They manage
the entire Risk Management Process at regional level
and include issues around process deadlocks and emer-
gency preparedness.
The BPIR committee meets once a month and has iden-
tified the following attributes of its approach to the overall
Eskom Integrated Risk Management (IRM):
� assists with business decision-making as more informa-
tion becomes available from the risk process being
executed;
� facilitates learning from and incorporating lessons from
the past;
� allows for an external view on matters which could lead
to more issues being identified;
� provides for integration between the different functional
departments leading to the optimal addressing of risk
issues;
� allows identification of any opportunities arising from
the matters at hand;
� ensures focus on objectives, keeping in line with the
regional objectives and those set by the Risk Manage-
ment Committee at Board level;
� ensures a proper audit trail for all risk-related matters:
the origin, owner, actions decided upon and taken,
and progress;
� assists with decision making, by providing input into the
continuous business planning which is also a function of
this committee;
� very importantly, it strives to protect against any impact
to the region’s financial results and image; and
� meets the requirements of the King II2 report.
4. Case study of the Western Cape Recovery Plan project
One of the projects of the Western Region Distribution
Division is Eskom’s Recovery Plan for the Western Cape.
The project was developed to address the current risk of
power interruptions due to a shortfall of supply and increas-
ing electricity demand during the winter period. To under-
stand the reasons for the shortfall in supply, it is necessary
to understand how the Western Cape is supplied with elec-
tricity and the existing constraints surrounding this.
The Western Cape requires up to 4250 MegaWatt (MW)
of power supply daily over peak periods during the winter
months. This is supplied from four power stations that pro-
vide a combined total of 4780 MW as follows:
2 · Nuclear reactors at the Koeberg Nuclear
Station (900 MW · 2)
1800 MW
Coal power stations in Mpumalanga
2400 MW
Palmiet hydro-electric pump station
400 MW
Steenbras hydro-electric pump station
180 MW
Total
4780 MW
However, there are peak periods in this region when
there is a surge in power consumption and these usually
occur between 5am and 8am, and 6pm and 8pm during
week days as shown in Fig. 1.
During routine maintenance on Unit 1 at the Koeberg
Nuclear Station in late 2005 serious damage was done to
the generator and its cooling system for this Unit. How-
Fig. 1. Demand for electricity as shown in the peak periods.
152 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project
Management 26 (2008) 149–163
ever, the nuclear reactor was not affected. The time for
repairing the generator and cooling system was set for at
least three months from January 2006. The repair pro-
gramme was focused on minimizing the period for Unit 1
to be out of service. This meant that various options had
to be considered which included obtaining replacement
parts (i.e. stator and rotor), acquiring spare parts, and
repairing the damaged parts. The dismantling of the Unit
1 generator is considered a slow process due to the cool
down period required (5 days) and separation of the rotor
and stator (10 days). After the assessment of the extent of
the damage, it was decided to start repairs to the stator and
rotor and obtain a spare rotor from a company in France.
This particular company had been the original advisors to
the Koeberg plant some 20 years ago.
During this time, Koeberg Unit 2 continued to provide
the required electricity to the Western Cape. However, a
number of power interruptions were experienced during
the month of February 2006 due to a variety of reasons,
including:
1. Unit 6 of the Kendal Power Station in Mpumalanga
tripped causing a large fluctuation on the National Net-
work. As a safety precaution, Koeberg’s Unit 2 was
removed from the grid and placed in a controlled shut
down. After the stabilisation of the network, it took
Unit 2 about a week to start up and increase generation
to full capacity. Due to the shortage of supply during
this period, load shedding (controlled black-outs) were
required and implemented. Public opinion was vocifer-
ous in its condemnation of Eskom.
2. Flash-overs between transmission lines due to high pol-
lution from veld fires and unexpected fog caused various
power lines to trip; interrupting the power flow from the
north and forcing Koeberg’s Unit 2 to remove itself
from the grid once again. This led to more load shedding
to manage the power shortage. This served only to
increase public condemnation.
Another risk was identified from the scheduled refuel-
ling of Unit 2 which was scheduled for March 2006. How-
ever, the repairs to Unit 1 had to be completed in time so
that Unit 2 could be shut down for approximately two
months to complete the refuelling and routine maintenance
procedures. In normal circumstances both units would then
have been ready to provide power for the winter months.
The rotor from France was only expected (and delivered)
during April 2006 and the repairs to the local rotor and sta-
tor were still underway at that time. It was impossible to
remove Unit 2 before Unit 1 was repaired as there was
no means to provide for the shortfall in electricity supply.
The economic impact of the February power outages was
estimated to be in excess of R500 million (about US$68m
or £36m) and was subject of discussion at provincial and
national governmental levels. To remove Unit 2 from the
grid would immediately mean a shortfall of another
900 MW and would force further load shedding to occur
with its associated economic impact.
The Western Cape Recovery Plan was an effort to do
the following: (1) explain the electricity supply problem;
(2) forecast the power demand and expected shortfall for
the winter months; (3) provide the timelines for Koeberg
R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management
26 (2008) 149–163 153
Unit 1 to be repaired and Unit 2 to be refuelled; (4) iden-
tify all risks that could impact on the project plan; (5)
develop mitigating actions for the identified risks; (6) iden-
tify other energy saving options to minimize the impact of
the shortfall; (7) provide load shedding principles and
guidelines; and (8) provide stakeholder and communica-
tion guidelines.
This plan was a combined effort between Eskom, the
City of Cape Town (electricity department) and RED
ONE (the recently formed regional electricity distributor).
Load Shedding
Streamlead
KSACS Streamlead
DSM Streamlead Customer Services
Streamlead
Grid and National
Control Streamlead
Human Resources
Streamlead
Koeberg/Generation
Streamlead
Corporate Finance
Streamlead
Eskom Enterprises
Streamlead
Other Corporate
Functions
Key
PM
DSM
ERD
WR
Recovery Programme PMO
Recovery Programme Manager
National Recovery Sponsor
Transmission Managing Director
Western Region Risk Manager
Fig. 2. Team structure for the Weste
Eskom
Holdings
Eskom
Executive
Eskom
Recovery
Team
Dept of
Public
Enterprises
Dept of
Provincial
&Local
Government
Provincial
Government
Energy Risk
Management
Committee
ERMC
Recovery
Team
Integrated
Recovery Team
M
Fig. 3. Stakeholder structure for risk man
An Eskom Recovery Team was established which was
headed by the Managing Director of the Transmission
Division. The team structure is shown in Fig. 2. The team
reported into a bigger operating model made up of various
stakeholders headed by the Energy Risk Management
Committee (ERMC) as shown in Fig. 3. The Eskom
Recovery Team (ERT) met at least once every two weeks
where progress on the Recovery Plan was given. The feed-
back was consolidated and forwarded to the Integrated
Recovery Team and finally to ERMC. A weekly status
Corporate Communications/ERD Streamlead
WR Communications & Stakeholders Streamlead
Corporate Spokesperson
SO – Programme Management Office
– Demand Side Management
– External Relations Dept.
– Western Region
Corporate Communications & Stakeholder Manager
Regional Recovery Sponsor
Western Region General Manager
rn Cape Recovery Plan project.
unicipal
Municipal
Recovery
Team
RED1 Other
Stakeholders
Dept of
Minerals
& Energy
agement of the Recovery Plan project.
154 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project
Management 26 (2008) 149–163
report was also compiled by ERT and published internally
within Eskom and externally to the general public.
5. Risk management of the Recovery Plan project
There are typically five stages associated with risk man-
agement, namely: (1) risk management planning, (2) risk
identification, (3) qualitative and quantitative risk analysis,
(4) risk response planning, and (5) risk monitoring and con-
trol [3]. However, Edwards and Bowen [4] state that the pro-
cess of risk management should include evaluation and
reporting and they have as a result categorised the process
of risk management into nine stages: Identification; Classifi-
cation; Allocation; Analysis; Response; Recording; Moni-
toring; Control; and Evaluation. Chapman [5] identified
nine phases of the generic risk management process
(RMP), comprising: define; focus; identify; structure, owner-
ship; eliminate; evaluate; plan and manage. Practically, how-
ever, it is possible to classify all these stages into a four-stage
risk management cycle: risk identification; risk analysis; risk
response; and risk reporting. The risk identification stage
includes classification and allocation, while risk reporting
includes monitoring, control and evaluation. The risk man-
agement practice of the Recovery Plan project within the
Eskom integrated risk management protocol is presented
below along the lines of this four-stage framework.
5.1. Risk identification (and classification and allocation) of
the Recovery Plan project
The role of stakeholders in the RMP is emphasised by
Loosemore et al. [6]. According to them, effective and fre-
quent involvement of stakeholders at all stages of the RMP
will ensure that more risks are identified and commitment
obtained in managing them. Stakeholder management
becomes very critical in the risk identification process given
that they can have conflicting interests and the risks identi-
fied could be biased towards those interests or limited to their
own experiences. The possibility that the stakeholder mix
could change over time also has an impact on project objec-
tives and its associated risks. Furthermore, stakeholders
might be unable to express their objectives clearly or limit
the sharing of valid information due to confidentiality or
inter-stakeholder politics. Hence, they have suggested that
the risk manager or risk management service provider should
encourage stakeholders to balance their objectives with one
another, be flexible where possible, and understand the pres-
sures and background under which objectives are created.
It is generally accepted that companies with organic
structures allow for more creative and imaginary
approaches to identify risks, though it is still easier for
mechanistic structured companies to implement those
approaches [4]. This is because the latter could provide
backing in the form of authority sources, addressing possi-
ble resistance. Hence, companies’ management should be
committed to the risk management process, identifying
leaders with a strong personal passion for the subject.
The classification of risks creates a common framework
for grouping risks, although different cultures could classify
the same risk differently. Edwards and Bowen [4] suggest
two primary categories for classifying risks: Natural and
Human Risks. Natural risks are those from systems ‘‘beyond
human agency’’ which include risks from weather, geologi-
cal, biological and extraterrestrial systems. Risks from
human systems are more difficult to categorise due to their
overlapping nature. These include risks from social, political,
cultural, health, legal, economic, financial, technical and
managerial systems. Baber [7] refers to internally and exter-
nally generated risks. The Project Management Institute [8]
classifies risk into internal and external. Examples of internal
risk in project development are issues relating to labour,
materials, site conditions, cash flow, etc., while external risks
include governmental regulations, vandalism, sabotage,
environmental factors, market forces, inflation, etc.
It is generally accepted as a good risk management prac-
tice that a risk should be allocated to the party who can best
manage it that risk. To avoid duplication it is suggested that
continuous investigations are undertaken during the pro-
cess of risk management to ensure that another stakeholder
has not already taken up the control of a risk [6].
Eskom, in general, is very risk aware and has invested
considerable resources into this project management prac-
tice within the company. Many processes are in place to
identify and manage potential risks in its various functional
areas. Within its Distribution Division the foci of opera-
tions are customer services, engineering (safety standards
– occupational safety and health requirements); finance;
human resources; information management; and commer-
cial. All of these functional departments are represented
on the BPIR Committee where risks are raised and man-
aged. At this level risks are categorized as follows: finance;
technical operation and performance; legal audit and com-
pliance; people; strategic acquisitions, divestitures and pro-
jects; strategy; transformation; pricing; regulatory (NER);
stakeholders; information; subsidiaries, associates and joint
ventures.
In this particular case, the main reason for the inade-
quate supply capacity to meet the needs of the Western
Cape within the normally envisaged risk possibility of a
loss of generation at Koeberg was aggravated by decisions
by central government that limited the capacity of Eskom
to build new power stations or transmission lines. Arising
from the White Paper on Energy Policy [9], government
decided it was necessary to proceed with ‘the unbundling
of Eskom’s generation and transmission groups’ and ‘sep-
arate the power stations into a number of companies’ to
‘create the opportunity for private sector and Black Eco-
nomic Empowerment investment opportunities in the gen-
eration sector’. Later, the Intergovernmental Fiscal Review
[10] stated ‘The ESI restructuring involves three key
aspects: the sale of 30 per cent of Eskom’s generating
capacity to private investors, with a black empowerment
equity stake of at least 10 per cent of capacity; the separa-
tion of Eskom into several generation clusters and a sepa-
3 Eskom initiated a schemed whereby the public were
encouraged to
exchange their conventional light bulbs for less electricity-
consuming
CFLs – at no cost to the consumer.
R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management
26 (2008) 149–163 155
rate transmission company; and the introduction of an
electricity market, which will ensure competition between
the different electricity generators. These reforms will begin
during the course of 2003.’ The central government had
taken responsibility to manage the investment decisions
of the supply industry, and it was only in late 2004, with
looming insufficient capacity, that the decision was made
to return the responsibility for electricity sufficiency to
Eskom [11]. Thus, Eskom was constrained by external
forces in its ability to respond to identified risk. Most sub-
sequent risk was a consequence of this external risk.
The identified risks are usually assigned to the BPIR
Committee members for mitigation. Although the commit-
tee members remain accountable, they could subsequently
delegate the risk mitigation actions and management to rel-
evant staff within the establishment.
The Eskom Recovery Team panel of experts responsible
for addressing the Western Cape Recovery Plan project
comprised senior managers drawn from the following
departments and/or divisions: National Recovery Sponsor
(this is represented by the Managing Director of the Trans-
mission Division who has overall accountability for execut-
ing the Recovery Plan); Regional Recovery Sponsor
(represented by the General Manager of Distribution –
Western Region); and Programme Manager (Risk Manager
– Distribution (Western Region), responsible for driving the
Recovery Team from a project and risk management
perspective). Other functions represented on the panel are
Project Managers and Consultants; Load Shedding stream,
Demand Side Management stream; Grid and National
Control stream, Koeberg stream (represented by the
Production Manager for Generation – Nuclear Cluster –
who is responsible for all activities happening at the
Koeberg Nuclear Power Station, i.e. repairing of Unit 1,
shutting down of Unit 2 for refuelling, and managing the
output capacities of the separate units); Eskom Enterprises
stream; Key Sales and Customer Services stream; Customer
Services stream; Human Resources stream, Finance stream;
Other Corporate Functions (Managers from Legal, Audit
and Security at corporate level); External Relations Depart-
ment stream; and Communication and Stakeholder stream.
This is a comprehensive stakeholder panel to ensure that
no function within Eskom that may contribute to the solu-
tion to resolve the risks associated with the Recovery Plan
project is left out. This panel compiled an extensive list of
risks and mitigating actions based on their individual exper-
tise and input from their respective teams and business envi-
ronments. Some risks were identified based on previous
experience, whilst others were based on documented rules
and regulations (especially in the nuclear environment).
The panel also identified risk ownership and reporting
mechanisms around these risks as shown in Table 2.
Many of the risks listed in Table 2 have arisen as a result
of the mitigation strategies for others. For example, the
risk of not being able to supply the demand for electricity
(Risk No. 20) is mitigated by Demand Side Management
(DSM) initiatives like providing an exchange programme
for Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFLs).3 Provision of
enough lights (Risk No. 23) and the public’s take-on of
the programme (Risk No. 21) became additional risks to
manage as a result mitigating Risk No. 20.
In addition, there were a couple of unidentified risks
which arose as time went by: (i) a faulty valve at Koeberg
was discovered after Unit 1 was returned to service; (ii) a
pinhole leak was discovered in Koeberg Unit 1, though it
posed no threat to operations; and (iii) a problem with
the electrical supply boards at Koeberg was discovered
which forced Unit 1 to shut down after it had been re-
commissioned.
The risk identification matrix (Table 2) also indicates
whether Eskom or the City of Cape Town (or both) is
responsible to action the risks. The relevant Recovery
Team’s members are identified as accountable for particu-
lar risks and they are able to delegate such risks to the rel-
evant staff as appropriate.
Despite the involvement on the panel of various stake-
holders in the risk identification, classification and alloca-
tion processes, certain shortcomings became apparent,
including: (1) a weak relationship between Eskom and
the City of Cape Town (the two key ownerships – internal
and external respectively – of the various risks) leading to
each blaming the other and miscommunications to the
public, i.e. customers; (2) lack of an integrated Recovery
Plan between the different stakeholders (probably due to
an excessive number of members on the panel); and (3)
the risks were not necessarily categorised according to
Eskom standards i.e., they were grouped according to the
business areas identified for the Recovery Plan (i.e., Load
Shedding, Koeberg, Communication, etc.). The excuse
given for these shortcomings in the risk management pro-
cess at the identification stage is the crisis situation under
which these risks were identified.
5.2. Risk analysis of the Recovery Plan project
It is important for perceived risks to be evaluated,
decomposed, and subjected to some form of assessment
in order to understand the magnitude of the risks facing
the organization [4]. The assessment method, which should
be appropriate for the risk and organisation, should mea-
sure the risk severity to determine what management action
and priority to apply. Risk analysis relies on a qualitative
and/or quantitative approach. It is, however, suggested
that quantitative risk analysis should only follow on qual-
itative risk analysis, where the latter has exposed important
risks which could be analysed with reliable data and where
numbers will make logical sense and could be interpreted
sensibly [6]. Qualitative risk analyses could, in many cases,
be sufficient to assess the magnitude of risks, although such
analysis is subjective and subject to errors of judgement. To
Table 2
Risk identified for Western Cape Recovery Plan project
Risk no. Description Allocated to
Eskom City of Cape Town
1 Collapse of aging infrastructure due to frequent switching X
2 Inability to stick to load shedding schedules X X
3 Insufficient numbers of authorized staff for manual switching
operations X
4 Poor operational communications X
5 Poor communications with public X X
6 Inability to soften impact X X
7 Dependency on standby plant and equipment X
8 Normal maintenance and refurbishment/expansion work will
be impacted
by the abnormal state of the networks, resulting in maintenance
backlogs,
failure to complete projects, etc.
X X
9 Electricity staff burn-out will result in low efficiency,
increased risk of
accidents and equipment damage
X
10 Potential commissioning delays in the recovery of Unit 1: X
� Potential for commissioning delays due to the rotor from
France not
being identical to the one removed to Rosherville
� Another reason for commissioning delays could include stator
bar failure
during stator repair
� Past records indicate that delays in unit start-up following an
outage are
quite common
11 Koeberg: Unexpected tripping on the turbine-generator set X
12 Koeberg: Controlled shutdown due to operational constraints
X
13 Delayed return of a Koeberg unit after a trip. X
14 Potential commissioning delays of Unit 2 X
15 Logistics of transporting the generator equipment on time X
16 Unavailability of Palmiet hydro-electric supply X
� Due to limited opportunities to restore dam levels, Palmiet
could be con-
strained in terms of power output.
� Potential plant failures could also limit the full output of
Palmiet.
17 Failure of some transmission equipment has in past resulted
in partial or
total blackout of the Cape.
X
18 Transmission Lines and substations X
� Fires
� Fog and mist
19 Total Blackout X
20 Inability to supply the demand of electricity X
21 Extent of consumer adoption of energy efficiency measures
less than
expected
X
22 Verbal and physical abuse of implementers X
23 Project delays caused by time required to acquire equipment
(Compact
Fluorescent Lamps (CFL’s), gas cylinders, etc.)
X
156 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project
Management 26 (2008) 149–163
overcome the disadvantages associated with qualitative
risk analysis, some quantitative attributes can be incorpo-
rated making it a semi-quantitative risk analysis. This can
be done by assigning predetermined values to the probabil-
ity and impact which will result in more precise estimates of
risks as shown in Table 3 [4].
Table 3
Predetermined values allocated to probability and impact of risk
factor
Probability Predetermined
Value
Impact Predetermined
Value
Rare 0.10 Insignificant 5% of cost
Unlikely 0.30 Minor 10% of cost
Possible 0.50 Moderate 20% of cost
Likely 0.70 Major 40% of cost
Almost
Certain
0.90 Catastrophic 80% of cost
Of course, different organisations will assign different
values for semi-quantitative risk analysis which will take
their risk attitude and exposure into account. An organisa-
tion could also assign different values for different projects.
According to Edwards and Bowen [4], whether organisa-
tions use quantitative or qualitative risk analysis methods,
decisions could still be based on emotions and ‘gut-feel’
rather than on the results generated by the application of
risk analysis techniques.
Risks of various natures and magnitudes could arise
from the different areas of the Distribution business within
Eskom (Customer Services, Engineering, Finance, etc.).
Hence, the BPIR Committee has produced a qualitative
analysis rating and description protocol to be applied to
risk management within the establishment as show in
Table 4. Based on the rating and the description protocol,
Table 5
Qualitative risk analysis of the Recovery Plan project risks
Risk no. Description
1 Collapse of aging infrastructure due to frequent switc
2 Inability to stick to load shedding schedules
3 Insufficient numbers of authorized staff for manual sw
4 Poor operational communications
5 Poor communications with public
6 Inability to soften impact
7 Dependency on standby plant and equipment
8 Normal maintenance and refurbishment/expansion w
by the abnormal state of the networks, resulting in m
failure to complete projects, etc.
9 Electricity staff burn-out will result in low efficiency,
accidents and equipment damage
10 Potential commissioning delays in the recovery of Un
� Potential for commissioning delays due to the ro
being identical to the one removed to Rosherville
� Another reason for commissioning delays could incl
during stator repair
� Past records indicate that delays in unit start-up fol
quite common
11 Koeberg: Unexpected tripping on the turbine-generat
12 Koeberg: Controlled shutdown due to operational co
13 Delayed return of a Koeberg unit after a trip
14 Potential commissioning delays of unit 2
15 Logistics of transporting the generator equipment on
16 Unavailability of Palmiet
� Due to limited opportunities to restore dam levels, P
strained in terms of power output
� Potential plant failures could also limit the full out
17 Failure of some transmission equipment, have in past
total blackout of the Cape
18 Transmission Lines and substations
� Fires
� Fog and mist
19 Total blackout
20 Inability to supply the demand of electricity
21 Extent of consumer adoption of energy efficiency mea
expected
22 Verbal and physical abuse of implementers
23 Project delays caused by time required to acquire equ
cylinders, etc.)
Table 4
BPIR Committee qualitative analysis rating and description
Rating Descriptor
Probability
1 Adverse event will not occur
3 Highly unlikely that the event will occur
5 Event can occur
7 Highly likely that the event will occur
10 Adverse event will definitely occur
Impact
1 Ignore – event is negligible
3 Minor – financial loss or injuries
5 Significant – loss of business, significant financial
loss, loss of jobs, some fatalities
7–9 Severe – loss of business opportunities, major
financial loss, many job losses and fatalities
10 Catastrophic impact on Eskom or the business
entity
R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management
26 (2008) 149–163 157
the BPIR Committee is able to decide how the risks will be
ranked and prioritised (Table 5).
A semi-quantitative approach is also used to evaluate
Eskom projects, where probability is indicated as a possi-
bility percentage of a risk occurring and impact as a Rand
value which relates to the percentage cost impact of the
specific project. The product of the probability and impact
is then used to determine the ranking of the risk. Quantita-
tive risk analysis is mostly applied in the business areas of
the company where they are more applicable, e.g. finance
and commercial issues where investment risks need to be
considered.
A qualitative risk analysis method was adopted for the
Recovery Plan project, based on the expertise of the Recov-
ery Plan team and lessons learnt from previous less serious
crisis projects. Quantitative analysis is applied for transmis-
sion load factors whilst impact and probability ratings,
Impact Probability
hing H M
H M
itching operations M H
M M
H M
M M
H H
ork will be impacted
aintenance backlogs,
M M
increased risk of M H
it 1: H L
tor from France not
ude stator bar failure
lowing an outage are
or set H M
nstraints H L
H M
M L
time L L
H M
almiet could be con-
put of Palmiet
resulted in partial or Very high L
H L
Very high L
M M
sures less than H M
M L
ipment (CFL’s, gas H M
Table 7
Risk scenarios for power supply interruption
Base Case Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
One Koeberg
Unit
No Koeberg One Koeberg
Unit
No Koeberg
Two Palmiet
Units
Two Palmiet
Units
Two Palmiet
Units
No Palmiet Unit
Tx system
intact
Tx system
intact
Tx system
contingency
Tx system
contingency
158 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project
Management 26 (2008) 149–163
based on high, medium or low ratings, are allocated to the
risks identified for the project. Priority was given to all
risks that could impact on either the restoration of the
power supply or the reduction of electricity demand – these
being regarded as the main project objectives. As the
Recovery Plan was implemented and time moved on, risks
were re-assessed and updated accordingly. For example, as
the repairs to Koeberg Unit 1 were progressing, the risk of
not synchronizing it to the grid was lowered accordingly
over time before Unit 2 had to be shut down for refuelling.
A quantitative risk analysis method was used to deter-
mine the Western Cape power load and its associated risks.
Table 6 depicts the load forecast in comparison with supply
and the associated predicted shortfall. By using this analy-
sis, the Recovery Team was able to compile various risk
scenarios pertaining to the possibility of power supply
interruptions as shown in Table 7. By using these scenarios,
the expected amount of load shedding could be determined
as shown in Table 8.
Based on this information, load blocks could be
designed to manage the amount of load to be shed. Load
blocks for different areas were aggregated to determine
the required load to be shed. There was a different load
block for every two hours that load shedding was required
Table 6
Predicted loading and electricity supply for Western Cape
Load Forecast Tx Limita Koebergb
13-Mar-06 3967 2400 900
20-Mar-06 3954 2442 858
27-Mar-06 3969 2484 816
3-Apr-06 4036 2526 774
10-Apr-06 3952 2568 732
17-Apr-06 4054 2610 690
24-Apr-06 4003 2652 648
1-May-06 4043 2694 606
8-May-06 4094 2736 564
15-May-06 4223 2778 522
22-May-06 4202 2820 480
29-May-06 4103 2400 900
5-Jun-06 4276 2400 900
12-Jun-06 4267 2400 900
19-Jun-06 4207 2400 900
26-Jun-06 4261 2400 900
3-Jul-06 4191 2400 900
10-Jul-06 4128 2400 900
17-Jul-06 4261 2400 900
24-Jul-06 4130 2400 1800
31-Jul-06 4151 2400 1800
07-Aug-06 4156 2400 1800
14-Aug-06 4201 2400 1800
21-Aug-06 4204 2400 1800
28-Aug-06 4146 2400 1800
04-Sep-06 4174 2400 1800
11-Sep-06 4067 2400 1800
18-Sep-06 4056 2400 1800
25-Sep-06 3948 2400 1800
a Tx limit is the transmission limit on electricity import from
the North. 280
b Koeberg’s Unit 2 output was reduced over time to delay its
shutdown for
c Customer interruptability are those agreements with larger
power users to
– to ensure that one geographical area was not interrupted
for longer than two hours at a time in terms of an under-
taking to the general public.
The project adopted a combination of qualitative, semi-
quantitative and quantitative methods risk analysis
depending on the task to be tackled as one would expect.
However, certain shortcomings arose from the analyses.
In essence, the analyses were as only as good as the data
that were used. For example, the load forecast indicated
that the week of 5th June would be the period when load
shedding could be the worst (i.e. with a 376 MW shortfall).
It happened that this week was one of the warmest weeks
of the early winter, which of course increased the factor
of uncertainty. Nonetheless, it is assumed that the mitigat-
Palmiet Customer
interruptabilityc
Predicted shortfall
before DSM
400 200 �67
400 200 �54
400 200 �69
400 200 �136
400 200 �52
400 200 �154
400 200 �103
400 200 �143
400 200 �194
400 200 �323
400 200 �302
400 200 �203
400 200 �376
400 200 �367
400 200 �307
400 200 �361
400 200 �291
400 200 �228
400 200 �361
400 200 670
400 200 649
400 200 644
400 200 599
400 200 596
400 200 654
400 200 626
400 200 733
400 200 744
400 200 852
0 MW is the absolute maximum.
refuelling.
use self generation over peak periods.
Table 8
Load shedding based on the risk scenarios
Month Peak load
expected (MW)
Customer
interruptability (MW)
Load to be shed in MW
Base case Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
March 3969 200 69 569 969 2069
April 4054 200 154 654 1054 2154
May 4223 200 323 823 1223 2323
June 4276 200 376 876 1276 2376
July 4261 200 361 861 1261 2361
August 4204 200 – 804 1204 2304
September 4174 200 – 774 1174 2274
% of Peak load to be shed Up to 9% Up to 20% Up to 30% Up
to 56%
R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management
26 (2008) 149–163 159
ing actions to minimise load shedding is adequate when
unexpected shortfalls do occur. In this instance plans were
prepared for the forecasted shortfall in power supply, but it
never materialised. This means that forecasting could be
inaccurate the other way around as well, i.e. a shortfall
of power supply when it is not expected. However, it is
assumed that even if this should happen, the necessary mit-
igating plans will kick in regardless.
5.3. Risk response of the Recovery Plan project
The aim of risk response should be to minimise the mag-
nitude of the risk or in the case of an upside risk, to maximise
its opportunity and benefits [6]. Nonetheless, organisations
can decide not to respond to a risk, because, for instance,
existing controls are adequate to minimise a threat or where
there is a high probability that the risk will disappear in the
future. It could also be that risks are so insignificant that
nothing needs to be done about them. An organisation’s risk
attitude and exposure will guide this decision or it could be
that the cost/benefit result of any action is actually negative.
It does not, however, mean that these insignificant risks
should be denied or forgotten. Rather, they should be con-
tinuously monitored to determine if any of the underlying
circumstances have changed which might require a different
risk response. Public perception and/or legislation could
force an organisation to respond to a risk even if it is insig-
nificant [6]. This is particularly relevant when it comes to
public health issues. For example, any type of radioactive
contamination of the environment will create a public
expectation for the organisation to attend to the risk or leg-
islation will force radioactive materials to be handled in a
(more costly) certain manner even if the risk probability
and impact is extremely low.
Forms of risk response are risk reduction, transfer,
avoidance and retention, or a combination of these. An
organisation will apply these responses based on its risk
attitude and cost/benefit results aiming towards the ‘‘as
low as possibly reachable’’ risk that is left and then assign-
ing the proper level of management to it [4].
One of the BPIR Committee’s remits was to ensure that
the appropriate response was assigned to mitigate risks
based on Eskom’s risk response nomenclature: (1) treat
risk (i.e. to reduce risk); (2) tolerate risk (i.e. to retain risk);
(3) terminate risk (i.e. to avoid risk) and (4) transfer risk.
Eskom policy is to provide financial backing to a set of a
certain risk decisions. For example, it does not have exter-
nal insurance cover for its motor vehicle fleet and would
stand in for any claims or repairs that are required in that
regard. This is because the company considers that insur-
ance premiums on its vast number of vehicles will be much
more costly than the occasional cost when a fleet risk does
occur. In addition, because the company is continuously in
the public eye, it prefers to address insignificant risk (toler-
ate insignificant risk) to improve its corporate image. For
example, the company continuously endeavours to mini-
mise pollution from its coal stations although the emission
levels are well within acceptable regulatory levels and spec-
ifications. The company, however, will prefer to share or
transfer some project risks to a project partner or third
party on a high magnitude value project.
Table 9 shows the various mitigating actions that the
Recovery Plan project team applied in their attempt to
reduce the impact and probability of the risks identified
and analysed by the team. The table shows that Eskom car-
ries most of the risks by treating and tolerating them.
Although it is difficult to comment on the validity of the
selected mitigating actions, the response options that
Eskom took shows the level of its capacity to absorb mas-
sive financial impacts of risks given that the Demand Side
Management risk mitigation initiatives alone amounted to
R230 million (about US$31M or £17m) while the total
Recovery Plan project was estimated at R1.2 billion (about
US$162M or £87m). An amount of R645m was spent dur-
ing the crisis period. The remainder of the budget is
planned for work previously unplanned, to be undertaken
in terms of the lessons learned and to prevent similar situ-
ations arising in the future e.g. a line re-insulation project.
Timelines are until 2011.
Part of the Demand Side Management risk mitigation
strategic was television broadcasts to the public using col-
our codes to mitigate the risk of poor communication risk
with the public. Unfortunately, an anomaly was created by
using the same colour scenarios on television for load shed-
ding purposes and the Power Alert campaign. The Power
Alert campaign used colour code scenarios to inform
Table 9
Risk responses strategies for the Recovery Plan project
Risk
no.
Description Mitigation
1 Collapse of aging infrastructure due to frequent switching �
Identify ‘problem’ areas
� Reduce switching?
� Repair/replace
2 Inability to stick to load shedding schedules � Redesign
blocks with larger margin of safety
� Use scenarios
3 Insufficient numbers of authorized staff for manual switching
operations
� Train, authorize additional switching personnel
� Arrange load blocks such that most switching can be done via
SCADA (remote)
4 Poor operational communications � Share info with ESKOM
� Dedicated phone lines
5 Poor communications with public � Implement
communications strategy
� Increase fault reporting centre, better routing of calls
6 Inability to soften impact � DSM, ripple control, better
shedding schedules, communication
strategy
7 Dependency on standby plant and equipment � Critical
allocation of available plant and equipment to support key
installations
8 Normal maintenance and refurbishment/expansion work will
be
impacted by the abnormal state of the networks, resulting in
maintenance backlogs, failure to complete projects, etc.
� Facilitate that most of these activities continue
� Create an understanding, through good communication with
con-
sumers, for these activities
9 Electricity staff burn-out will result in low efficiency,
increased risk
of accidents and equipment damage
� Arrange load blocks such that most switching can be done via
SCADA
� Limit need for overtime Better planned switching schedules.
Dual
shift system for ops centre
10 Potential commissioning delays in the recovery of Unit 1: �
The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Inspections have occurred in
France and actions taken to mitigate this difficulty. Further
inspec-
tions will occur once the rotor arrives on site. The project team
is
monitoring the situation closely and pro-actively taking actions
to
minimize the risk
� The strategy is to TREAT the risk: The project team is
monitoring
the situation closely and pro-actively taking actions to minimize
the risk
� The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Production Manager role
assigned (24/7) focusing on current and future activities to
minimize
any risks
� Potential for commissioning delays due to the rotor from
France
not being identical to the one removed to Rosherville
� Another reason for commissioning delays could include stator
bar
failure during stator repair
� Past records indicate that delays in unit start-up following an
out-
age are quite common
11 Koeberg: Unexpected tripping on the turbine-generator set �
The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Communicated to applicable
Transmission staff
� The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Worker instructions for
stretch-
out operations have been developed and implemented
previously.
Production Manager role assigned (24/7) focusing on current
and
future activities to minimize any risks
� The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Production Manager role
assigned (24/7) focusing on current and future activities to
minimize
any risks
� The strategy is to TOLERATE the risk since it is not deemed
significant
12 Koeberg: Controlled shutdown due to operational constraints
� The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Communicated to
applicable
Peaking staff
� The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Production Manager role
assigned (24/7) focusing on current and future activities to
minimize
any risks. The number of PTs will be minimised
� The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Production Manager role
assigned (24/7) focusing on current and future activities to
minimize
any risks
� The risk strategy is to respond only once informed since no
fore-
knowledge is possible
13 Delayed return of a Koeberg unit after a trip � The strategy
is to TREAT the risk: This is due to physical properties
of the core at this stage in its operation and cannot be changed
� The risk strategy is to respond only once NNR communicate a
con-
cern since no foreknowledge is possible
14 Potential commissioning delays of unit 2 � The strategy is to
TREAT the risk: Production Manager role
assigned (24/7) focusing on current and future activities to
minimize
any risks
160 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project
Management 26 (2008) 149–163
Table 9 (continued)
Risk
no.
Description Mitigation
15 Logistics of transporting the generator equipment on time �
The strategy is to TREAT the risk: A team in France comprised
of
Eskom, Alsthom, EdF and French customs representatives are
working to ensure that the departure of the rotor from France
remains on track. It is confirmed that the SA Navy ship, the
SAS
Drakensberg, will be used to expedite transport. This will cut
approximately one week off the shipment time. The ship will be
tracked on a daily basis. A dedicated logistics team is currently
working on customs and port arrangements as well as
transportation
from CT Harbour to Koeberg. In addition, recovery of the
Koeberg
rotor currently being repaired at Rosherville is being pursued in
parallel to the shipment of the EdF rotor
16 Unavailability of Palmiet � Not captured
� Due to limited opportunities to restore dam levels, Palmiet
could
be constrained in terms of power output
� Potential plant failures could also limit the full output of
Palmiet
17 Failure of some transmission equipment, have in past
resulted in
partial or total blackout of the Cape
� Not captured
18 Transmission lines and substations � Fires: Extension of the
fire protection agents (FPAs) to other areas.
FPAs are for fire management, and include local fire
departments,
policing forums and civil society
� Fog and Mist: Re-insulation of the lines – Replacing glass
with sili-
con composite insulators (short-term – focus on key lines and
pro-
jects to focus on all coastal lines)
� Fires
� Fog and mist
19 Total Blackout � Regional Control will be directed by
National Control
� There will be direct communication between Eskom’s
Regional and
National Control with City of Cape Town’s Control Centre
� The Emergency Operating Centre (EOC) will be responsible
for
communication with the Regional Crisis Centre
� If the EOC is not yet active the Regional Control Centre will
alert
the Regional Crisis Centre (Required is only one contact person
to
avoid sidetracking the Control Centre from doing switching)
� The emergency will further be managed as per the ESKOM
proce-
dures do restore power supply to affected areas in the Cape
� All communication with ESKOM will be through the EOC
� All external communication about the blackout will be
through the
Regional Crisis Centre
20 Inability to supply the demand of electricity � Initiate
various Demand Side Management Programmes. This will
include:
� CFL exchange
� Self generation
� Gas conversions
� Voluntary conservation
� Subsidising electricity efficient devices
21 Extent of consumer adoption of energy efficiency measures
less than
expected
� A diverse range of projects will be pursued. Successful
projects will be
accelerated to make up for projects with lower success
22 Verbal and physical abuse of implementers � Implementers
will work in teams and will avoid ‘hot spots’
23 Project delays caused by time required to acquire equipment
(CFL’s,
gas cylinders, etc.)
� Procurement processes will be streamlined as far as possible
R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management
26 (2008) 149–163 161
viewers of what the immediate situation was and to request
them to take certain actions. For example, a green scenario
on TV meant ‘‘No action is required’’, although for load
shedding purposes up to 9% of load could be shed at any
time. The red scenario requested users to switch off multi-
ple appliances and power points (e.g., from electric heating
to unnecessary lighting); this also meant up to 30% load
shedding. The 30% load shedding meant one third of the
Western Cape could sit in the dark; this was a very consid-
erable risk! There was lack of correlation between the
severity of the TV alert program and what the actual situ-
ation was. It worked out well nonetheless, as very few inter-
ruptions took place during the time that interruptions were
expected – except for an unexpected fault at Koeberg which
forced Unit 1 to be shut down. Although all the crisis plans
were in place and the principles of the Western Cape
Recovery Plan were immediately applied, it could not avert
controlled blackouts in the City and surrounding areas as a
result of fault at Koeberg Unit 1.
The main problem, however, with the mitigation strate-
gies employed was that many of the strategies were imple-
mented too slowly; this was apparent for the Demand Side
Management initiatives and for communication and stake-
holder management.
4 http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/economy/display_article.aspx?
Nav=ns&lvl2=econ&ArticleID=1518-25_1836685 (20/10/06).
5
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=280838&area=/
breaking_news/breaking_news__business/ (15/9/06).
6
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=281096&area=/
breaking_news/breaking_news__business/ (15/9/06).
7 http://www.southafrica.info/what_happening/news/erwin_koe
berg180806.htm (20/10/06).
8 061004_Exco Board_Presentation_Close-out
Report_RvW2.ppt.
Internal Eskom document, unpublished.
162 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project
Management 26 (2008) 149–163
5.4. Risk reporting (recording, monitoring, control and
evaluation) of the Recovery Plan project
It is considered good practice for risks to be recorded in
a risk log or register database system [12] after they have
been identified and assessed. This is to facilitate the moni-
toring, control and evaluation of the risks. Each risk
should be uniquely identifiable (using a risk number/code),
indicating: the description; the type of risk; the assigned
risk owner; and the applicable risk response and mitigation
action. It is important that the frequency of monitoring the
risk and the method of reporting are pre-decided very early
in the risk process [4]. At the same time, mode(s) of com-
municating the risks to relevant staff and external stake-
holders must be introduced [6].
According to Loosemore et al. [6], the greater the risk
the more senior management should become involved. This
is also important where risk response implementation is
likely to meet with resistance, particularly where resources
(funds and people) are redirected from other projects or
functions to mitigate risks [6]. Monitoring and controlling
of risks will highlight the urgency of the Risk Management
System and make risks more obvious to identify. It also
increases risk awareness and therefore reduces risk magni-
tude as more information becomes available; and it should
also allow risk knowledge/lessons learnt to be captured for
future project use [4].
The BPIR Committee has the oversight responsibility
of all the risks within the Western Region Distribution
Division business. One of its main objectives is to inte-
grate these risks and assess how one risk could impact
on, or create, another. It also identifies the risk impact
on the other regions, divisions and/or subsidiaries. It
aims to make the business more risk-aware and encour-
ages the inclusion of risk management processes in the
normal business processes. The BPIR Committee suggests
that risks be reviewed annually for those where the expo-
sure is long term and could have an impact on long-term
business objectives. Monthly reviews are done, however,
to keep the RMS dynamic and up to date. Ad-hoc risk
analyses are undertaken in the case where changes occur
that could have a negative (or positive) impact on the
business. For project development, the Committee sug-
gests that risk analysis and monitoring are undertaken
at three stages: concept phase; before implementation;
and when there are significant changes/problems during
implementation.
The risks on the Recovery Plan project were recorded,
continuously monitored, and regularly reported to the
Committee and to the various stakeholders involved in
the project with lessons learnt incorporated into the feed-
back process. Nonetheless, the initial Recovery Plan
report did not indicate all the risk analysis results on
impact, probability and mitigating actions. This was
noted and remedied just in time to ensure that these omit-
ted information did not impact on the management of the
risks.
6. The Western Cape electricity crisis aftermath
The National Electricity Regulator South Africa
(NERSA) decided to formally investigate the incidents at
Koeberg’s Units 1 and 2 which occurred during November
2005. These incidents are not discussed in this report, but
were also due to a switching fault and flash-overs between
transmission lines due to high pollution from veld (grass)
fires.4 At the time only one unit was generating power as
the other unit was off line due to maintenance being carried
out. NERSA, however, found that Eskom was negligent in
terms of maintenance procedures. It identified faulty pro-
tection systems and found Eskom in breach of its license
conditions. At Koeberg it found deficiencies in its configu-
ration management, non-conformance to procedures and
ill-discipline in certain areas. The Regulator indicated that,
if found guilty, Eskom could be fined up to R300 million.5
Eskom contested the NERSA report and responded that
not all incidents indicated negligence or a breach of licensecon-
ditions. It emphasised that the nuclear safety regulations, as set
by the National Nuclear Regulator (NNR), have never been
violated. Eskom has, however, acknowledged that there were
oversights regarding some of its practices and procedures.6
The damage done during the January 2006 mainte-
nance on Unit 1 (as per the report) was caused by a bolt
left behind in the generator. At the time a concern was
raised because the bolt was of another type than those
used in the generator. Three investigations took place:
one by the police and the security services including the
National Intelligence Agency, one by the National Energy
Regulator, and a third by Eskom itself. Originally it was
thought that the unit could have been sabotaged, but
these fears were laid to rest after the investigations were
completed and the cause of failure ascribed to human
error.7
Some of the key lessons learnt include:8
� The Western Cape is vulnerable to power supply issues –
ensure mitigation plan is in place at all times.
� Ensure support from all operations to allow plant per-
sonnel to focus on the problems at hand.
� Streamline the communication process to be less cum-
bersome and time consuming.
� Co-ordinate all communication with government across
all three tiers.
� Need to know and be sensitive to the direct and knock-
on impact on customers and the Economy.
http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/economy/display_article.aspx?
http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/economy/display_article.aspx?
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=280838&ar
ea=/breaking_news/breaking_news__business
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=280838&ar
ea=/breaking_news/breaking_news__business
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=281096&ar
ea=/breaking_news/breaking_news__business
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=281096&ar
ea=/breaking_news/breaking_news__business
http://www.southafrica.info/what_happening/news/erwin_koebe
rg180806.htm
http://www.southafrica.info/what_happening/news/erwin_koebe
rg180806.htm
R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management
26 (2008) 149–163 163
� Ensure protection of Key Industrial Customer loads
(within limits).
� Prioritise load shedding based on upfront determined
principles.
� Publish Load Shedding schedules a week in advance and
stick to these since businesses plan operations around
them.
� Restore confidence in the electricity industry, i.e. build/
sustain reputation and corporate image.
� Media education and relationship building.
� Identify multiple levels of risk and perform adequate
risk management.
� Understand the impact and importance of various levels
of crisis communication and messages being sent out.
7. Conclusions
The objective of this paper was to document the process
of risk management used by a utility company for manag-
ing risks associated with its projects. The paper has
reflected on the theory and practice of risk management
by presenting risk management of the Recovery Plan pro-
ject of the Distribution Division of Eskom Holding Ltd
in South Africa. The company’s risk management system
policy allows for total risk integration between divisions,
regions and functional departments. The company ensures
that a risk management process forms part of its strategy
and develops a company governance structure to imple-
ment and maintain the process. However, potential risks
and opportunities are identified within its various business
divisions, departments and functions. Risk accountability
is implemented at the company, divisional and project lev-
els by assigning risks to the members of the risk manage-
ment team to ensure that mitigating actions are
implemented. The progress of risk mitigation is tracked
on a regular basis.
However, certain shortcomings are evident in the risk
management process of the company. These shortcom-
ings include: an excessive number of stakeholders that
are represented on the risk management panels and com-
mittees; an inability to stick to the overall company risk
management process at a time of crisis; and loose imple-
mentation of the company’s risk management system
across its various divisions and business functions. Lack
of integration of external and internal stakeholders (in
this case, Eskom and the City of Cape Town) is another
shortcoming of the risk management system, as was the
associated risk communication to the public and key
customers.
The company has access to and uses different tech-
niques of risk management, suggesting that there is con-
gruence between the theory and practice of risk
management by the company. However, the company
adheres to a very simple risk management process that
enables it to carry out its business functions. The com-
pany’s use of quantitative risk analysis is very limited,
although it has the resources to use more sophisticated
types of analyses to assist in its RMS. This tends to sup-
port Elkington and Smallwood’s [2] view that the current
process that this utility company uses for risk manage-
ment is weak.
Although this is a utility company with more attendant
risks compared with the risks levels and factors faced by
other industries, there is no evidence that the company uti-
lises more sophisticated risk management tools. Rather, the
company strategy was to raise risk awareness within its
business supported by high level governance structures
and to ensure that risk management is an integral parts
of business activities.
Risk management activities take place at different levels
within the company. Future research could meaningfully
be directed at establishing the effectiveness and efficiency
of this multilevel risk management strategy.
Acknowledgement
The authors are indebted to Professor Trevor Gaunt,
Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Cape
Town, for his valuable input concerning external forces ini-
tially constraining Eskom’s ability to respond to identified
risk.
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to aid
the management of project risk. Int J Project Manage 2002;20:
365–74.
http://www.dme.gov.za
http://www.dme.gov.za
http://www.treasury.gov.za
http://www.treasury.gov.za
http://allafrica.com/stories/200410270280.html
http://allafrica.com/stories/200410270280.htmlProject risk
management practice: The case of a South African utility
companyIntroductionCorporate risk management within Eskom
Holdings Ltd.Risk Management System within the Distribution
DivisionCase study of the Western Cape Recovery Plan
projectRisk management of the Recovery Plan projectRisk
identification (and classification and allocation) of the
Recovery Plan projectRisk analysis of the Recovery Plan
projectRisk response of the Recovery Plan projectRisk reporting
(recording, monitoring, control and evaluation) of the Recovery
Plan projectThe Western Cape electricity crisis
aftermathConclusionsAcknowledgementReferences
 Cotton 2Table of ContentsFirst Major Writing Assignment.docx

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  • 1. Cotton 2 Table of Contents First Major Writing Assignment…………………………………………………………… ………………………….2 Peer and Instructor Feedback ………………………………………………………………………… …………….3 Father Sanchez (Revision 1) ..……………………………………………………………………… ……………..4 Unit 6 Journal ………………………………………………………………………… …………….6 Different Walks, One Purpose ………………………………………………………………………… ……………..7 Revised From the Start ……..………………………………………………………………… ……………..10 Works Cited ………………………………………………………………………… …………....13
  • 2. First Major Writing Assignment “The relation between officers and men should in no sense be that of superior and inferior nor that of master and servant, but rather that of teacher and scholar. In fact, it should partake of the nature of the relation between father and son, to the extent that officers, especially commanding officers, are responsible for the physical, mental, and moral welfare, as well as the discipline and military training of the young men under their command” (Lejeune, 1929). This very quote is the relationship that is widely spread throughout my chain of command as well as with my senior leaders’ involvement with the Marines who serve under our commanding officer. I can relate to this quote because it is the exact relationship that I shared with my former Staff Noncommissioned Officer (SNCO). The relationship that we shared was like the relationship of a father and son. The reason I feel this way is because he never gave up on me, even when I gave up on myself like the actions of a father or father figure. That SNCO’s name was Staff Sergeant (SSgt) Sanchez. He showed me how to lead the Marines under his charge as well as showing me how to hold others accountable for their actions. Some people may say “well that’s not a father figure”, well I 100% disagree. A father figure can be anyone who genuinely cares about your safety and well-being. SSgt. Sanchez shared that same attitude and love with all his Marines, but I felt he added an extra boost into my life. As a young Lance Corporal of
  • 3. Marines, I tried to stand out in everything that my name was involved in. One day, SSgt Sanchez offered me the opportunity to attend a Marine of the Quarter board and I immediately accepted the offer without hesitation. On the day of the board, I put on my uniform and SSgt Sanchez made a few minor corrections to it. After attending the board and not winning, SSgt still managed to encourage me when I was down and instructed me to keep trying. I eventually won Marine of the Quarter and a few other boards all with the help of SSgt. Sanchez. His commitment, and care for the Marines under his charge led us to winning 80% of the boards he put us on. Without his leadership abilities and genuine care, I would not be the Marine that I am today. SSgt Sanchez led me to believe that a genuine concern and a father figure can come from anywhere, even when its least expecting. His willingness to want the best for us, is the same mindset that I try to instill in the Marines currently under my charge. I can honestly say that I was shaped by a Marine with high standards, love for the Marine Corps, and a little bit of tough love. Peer and Instructor Feedback Trevionne Moses (Peer): The writing was straight to the point and didn’t stray too far away from the topic. My overall impression of this piece of writing is that it’s a decent, easy to read paper. The writer’s goal in my opinion is to show the readers that a father figure or mentor can come from anywhere. This writing would fall under the narrative category because it tells more of a story. You could also say it falls under argument as well because he makes a claim and gives a few details, but the paper isn’t strong enough to hold the argument. General audience seems to be the target in this writing simply because it’s on a topic that just about everyone could read and understand and possibly relate to. The fact that the writer says he's a marine instills credibility. Society views military personnel as trustworthy people after all they are putting their lives on the line to protect us all (US citizens). The emotional
  • 4. appeal the writer uses is pathos and he does it by lightly explaining how involved he was with his superior officer and the encouragement he received. I think giving more in depth examples would help appeal to the reader more effectively. Or more facts on how military life is perceived from the outside and show how that through his experience he found that it differs from the outside assumptions. The examples given felt rushed. Professor Johnson(Instructor): You have a wonderful essay with examples and different aspects that you cover. If you choose to revise this essay, take another look at the organization -- I've posted an outline in the Announcements that might be helpful as you start the essay for Unit 2, and it could be useful as you revise this essay later in the course. Take a look at this link for details on using MLA style formatting for this document: https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/747/13/ Louis J. Cotton Ms. Heather Johnson EN 105 14 April 2019 Father Sanchez "The relation between officers and men should in no sense be that of superior and inferior nor that of master and servant, but rather that of teacher and scholar. In fact, it should partake of the nature of the relationship between father and son, to the extent that officers, especially commanding officers, are responsible for the physical, mental, and moral welfare, as well as the discipline and military training of the young men under their command" (Lejeune, 1929). This very quote is the relationship that is widely spread throughout my chain of command as well as with my senior leaders' involvement with the Marines who serve under our commanding officer. I can relate to this quote because it is the exact relationship that I shared with my former Staff Noncommissioned Officer (SNCO). The relationship that we shared was like the relationship of a father and son. The reason I feel this way is because he never
  • 5. gave up on me even when I gave up on myself. Like the actions of a biological father or father figure my former SNCO showed his love with not only words but with actions as well. That SNCO's name was Staff Sergeant (SSgt), Sanchez. He showed me how to lead the Marines under his charge as well as how to hold others accountable for their actions. Some people may say "well that's not a father figure," well I 100% disagree. A father figure can be anyone who genuinely cares about your safety and well-being. SSgt. Sanchez shared that same attitude and love with all his Marines, but I felt he added an extra boost into my life. As a young Lance Corporal of Marines, I tried to stand out in everything that my name was involved in regardless of how big or small the event or task was. One day, SSgt Sanchez offered me the opportunity to attend a Marine of the Quarter board, and I immediately accepted the offer without hesitation. As a Lance Corporal, I felt honored that SSgt. saw something in me that I hadn't even figured out for myself. On the day of the board, SSgt Sanchez looked over my uniform and made a few minor corrections to it. The committee consisted of seven higher ranking individuals and eight other Marines from the surrounding squadrons. After attending the board and not winning, SSgt. encouraged me when I was down and instructed me to keep trying because there would be plenty more opportunities. After several practice boards and uniform inspections, I eventually won Marine of the Quarter and a few other boards all with the help of SSgt. Sanchez. Although he showed a genuine concern for the Marines under his charge, he still managed to lay the boot down when things got out of order. SSgt. was often known as the man that was easily approachable and motivated until the day that I showed up 1 hour late. SSgt was a man of no excuses, and he expected nothing but greatness from his junior Marines. After showing up to the shop and getting negative counseling from my Sergeants, SSgt called me into his office. After fifteen minutes of no yelling but a calm talk of how disappointed he was in me, I was
  • 6. left in a pool of tears. The tears that flowed down my face were not tears of anger, but tears of sorrow because I had let SSgt down. The effect that his words had on me showed that he did not have to scream or yell to get his point across. On that day SSgt taught me that sometimes just talking can have a more significant effect on a person than yelling or belittling. Without the leadership abilities and genuine care for the Marines that served under SSgt. Sanchez, I would not be the Marine that I am today. His commitment and care for the Marines under his charge led us to win 80% of the boards he put us on and having no significant issues over a period of one year. SSgt Sanchez led me to believe that genuine concern and a father figure can come from anywhere, even when it is least expecting. His willingness to want the best for us is the same mindset that I try to instill in the Marines currently under my charge. I can honestly say that a Marine shaped me with high standards, a genuine love for the Marine Corps, and a little bit of tough love. Unit 6 Journal Name your audience. Write a paragraph or two explaining exactly who should care about your subject and why. My audience in this passage would be a veteran, a civilian, or anyone that cares about the Marine Corps or anyone interested in the impact that a change can have on a person in the military. Junior Marines that are new to the fleet should care about this subject because it will give them a slight look on how the world views them on the outside and possibly serve as a wakeup call for them that every one doesn’t like the purpose that you serve and the country that you represent. They should also care about this subject because they are the future of the Corps and can further shape the image that represents us as an organization of Pride and Honor. Describe why you care about your subject. Passion can be contagious. If you can depict your enthusiasm for your subject, then many readers will feel that enthusiasm, too. I care about
  • 7. this subject because I am a Marine. Often, I hear people say, that Marines eat crayons, Marines only drink and cause problems, USMC means Uncle Sam’s misguided children. All those accusations are false, at least to my knowledge. I have never seen anyone eat a crayon to its entirety but testing them out to see if they had the grape flavor is a whole other story. When I thought of this as a subject to write about, it came easy because I love the Marine Corps and I hate to hear people make false accusations. Louis Cotton Professor Heather Johnson EN105 28 April 2019 Different Walks, One Purpose Being in the Marine Corps has allowed me to the opportunity to see new things, meet new people and gain knowledge in places that I never thought I would be. In the Marine Corps community, we often find friends from different walks of life, some are black, some are white, some or Hispanic, some are country, some are city people, and some are urban, but we all come together to make one big weird family. From the day we stepped off the bus to begin our boot camp journey, we all began to speak the Marine Corps language without even recognizing it. Upon arrival to boot camp, the little bit of individualism that we entered boot camp with was stripped away and replaced with the instant willingness and obedience to all orders, respect for proper authority, self-reliance and teamwork which is the definition of discipline. On day one of boot camp, we were stripped of our names and given to title recruit. Being in boot camp sharpened my competitive nature by inspiring me to be uninformed with the person to your left and right. It also inspired me to be better than my fellow recruits when it came to the performance of the tasks assigned to us.
  • 8. After thirteen weeks of misery, we had worked hard enough at the crucible to transform from filthy recruits and earn the title of well-respected and trustworthy Marines. Upon completion of MCT (Marine Combat Training) and being assigned to my first real duty station my personal experiences helped me redevelop my sense of self. There were times when the entire company would come together for accountability and suggest ways that we could improve the unit. It was at that point where language allowed me to express myself on a personal level with the Marines around me. Often when I tried to talk to people who were not Marines, they would call me weird because they could not understand why I said "sir" and "ma'am" after every sentence. Elaborating on my responses became second nature when talking to civilians as well as my friends which allowed them to feel just a little bit more comfortable. Learning that the context of the words you use with others and how you use them could speak volumes; without the slightest bit of effort allowed me to save a few friendships. Keeping long-term relationships with fellow Marines and childhood friends shaped my transition back to a well-rounded person, which ultimately led to me becoming a well-rounded Marine. Navigating from the language that I use with my Marine Corps friends and family is a lot different from the language at home. Often, I find myself driving around listening to the gospel for about thirty minutes to calm down and to transfer my mind from Sgt. Cotton to Louis. Thinking over what I am about to say several times before I say it has helped a lot with that process. For example, when I am home, I speak in a low, calm tone like "Can you hand me that remote" but with my Marines, I speak in a sort of aggressive nature like "Get the hell off your phone and go work" which usually works 90% of the times. When making minor corrections, I always try to demand of them nothing but the best and 100% effort. While at home, I often find myself getting blown off, but we understand that if a task is supposed to be done, we must work together to get it done. In the Marine Corps we speak to each other in a language that originated from
  • 9. our naval traditions like porthole which means window, deck which means floor, and hatch which means door, to name a few. Some common misunderstandings of the Marine Corps community are that we are all brainwashed and some people even call us Uncle Sam's Misguided Children. The Marine Corps motto is Semper Fidelis, where we pride ourselves on honor, courage, and commitment. Every aspect of the Marine Corps has a rich history that dates to 1775. We are the presidents very own 911 force in readiness. "Today, the branch's combat operations include amphibious raid and assault, antipiracy work, reconnaissance and surveillance, and recovering hostages or aircraft and personnel. In addition to conducting such work when called, the Marine Corps has ongoing projects worldwide" (Rowell 50). The Marine Corps must always be ready to protect against all enemies both foreign and domestic. We were born to fight and win wars which we have done since our founding. Our esprit de corps has enabled us to protect each other as well as this great nation that we have grown to love. The Marine Corps is a brotherhood/ sisterhood built to have the "6" or back of every Marine that serves. We sometimes fall to our knees, but there is always a brother or sister to lift us to whether it be an officer or an enlisted member. If I had to do it all over again, I would still choose the Marine Corps because being a part of something bigger than yourself could make all the difference when everything begins to fall apart. The Marine Corps is a different branch of service that lets your inner self glow with the help of friends and family, provides a chance for diversity in the home life, and unique history of battles won regardless of the negative opinions of others. It has enabled me to give a positive example not only for the Marines but for my family as well. Although we were born in different cities and town of the world and come from different walks of life, we still manage to come together to serve one purpose which is to protect our country against its enemies both foreign and domestic. Contrary to popular belief,
  • 10. the Marine Corps is not full of crayon eaters. Instead, it represents servicemen and women who will do whatever it takes to provide an protect their family. Former President Ronald Reagan once said "Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference in the world. Marines don't have that problem" (Reagan). Marines are who they are because of the language and culture that they represent. Louis Cotton Professor Heather Johnson EN105 4 May 2019 Revised from the Start The famous words of Drake "started from the bottom now we here," is a true testament of my writing in EN 105. My writing pieces have gone from little to no structure and organization to average. At the start of this class, I knew that it would be difficult trying to balance military life, provide for my family and go to school at the same time but I knew that I had to find a way to manage my time and responsibilities. I had first to figure out how I would put the thoughts in my head on paper. I still haven't figured out how to make it all make sense, but the idea that I'm learning is motivating. Often, I found myself struggling to find a starting point in my writings and remain on topic when I started. The instructor feedback and peer review helped me advance during the duration of this course. Once I completed my first major writing assignment on something I knew about, I gained hope. The thought of dropping this class and just giving up on school ran through my mind a lot before that assignment. I am reflecting on my first major writing assignment which turned into my first revision project that had no title and very little MLA format organization. My purpose in that assignment was to describe a relationship I had with an outstanding teacher or mentor. In that piece of work, I was trying to say that a father figure can come from anywhere,
  • 11. even when you're least expecting it. After reading over my piece of writing and getting some peer review from my fellow students, I could see in my initial draft where it lacked personal examples that could help me appeal to the pathos aspect in my writing. It was at that point where I came up with the title Father Sanchez. Feedback from peer reviews and instructor comments, helped me utilize different tools to make my writing better. Utilizing the writing journals and discussions have allowed me to learn and identify different writing styles and make connections that weave texts together. Doing this helped me develop a deeper understanding of writing as a college student. I did not read at all on the outside of high school that much before this class. Being in the Marine Corps has given me so many opportunities to advance and gain more responsibility, which came with reading and understanding orders. I guess you can say that I have learned to read with a pen. Underlining critical parts of the texts allowed me to connect my inner thoughts and eventually put them on the paper creating policy letters and mastering the concept of writing with a purpose. Writing, in general, has always been one of my weaknesses; it was challenging to take the initial step past the high school way of writing. Being able to make that transition was essential because it gave me the necessary tools required to sustain a logical argument in an organized manner. My writing has become concise, and I no longer put things in a crazy order with very little organization. Another improvement is my ability to point out many complexities within a text instead of sticking to one-sided arguments in my papers. Furthermore, learning how to use my peer review and instructor feedback has led to better articles with credible references. As a student in this English class, I have learned how powerful the written word and language can be. Words tell so much more than just a story. Stories tell about life and the human condition that reflect on the past and present cultures. Literature teaches about a world of changes. From this class, I have learned about
  • 12. the world and how it reacts to the changes made for its people. By writing about what we learn enables us to be able to express ourselves on a whole other level. There are a couple of things that I do feel I lack the confidence and skill to perform and that is what I hope to gain from participating in future peer reviews. At the start of this class, I didn't know how to share my knowledge with other students who possibly had no idea what I was talking about or the point I was trying to make. Learning to understand and balance my life and school enabled me to learn how to write various styles of papers in different forms. At this point in the class, I feel confident that I could write an article about almost anything and know how to cite and format it correctly. Works Cited
  • 13. HQMC (Headquarters Marine Corps). 2016. Sustaining the Transformation (MCTP 6-10A). Quantico, VA: HQMC. Accessed March 24,2019. https://www.marines.mil/Portals/59/Publications/MCTP%20610 A%20(Formerly%20MCRP%206-11D).pdf?ver=2016-06-27- 165407-453 “Ronald Reagan Quotes.” BrainyQuote, Xplore, www.brainyquote.com/quotes/ronald_reagan_386887 Rowell, Rebecca. The US Marine Corps. ABDO Publishing, 2015. EBSCOhost, search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&AuthType=sso&d b=nlebk&AN=796215&site=eds-live. Option #1: The Recovery Plan Project Read the Recovery Plan project: Van Wyk, Bowen, & Akintoye. (2008). Project risk management practice: The case of a South African utility company (Links to an external site.). International Journal of Project Management, 26(2), 149-163. 1. Examine the project management issues detailed in the case, including those concerning procurement, contracts, and risk management. 2. In no more than one page, give an overview of the case and the project management issues to be covered in more detail. 3. Discuss, in logical order, the following topics: (Note: You must determine the logical order of these topics; this is part of your grade. See the grading rubric in this week’s folder.) · Risk identification · Risk assessment and prioritization
  • 14. · Risk response for prevention · Mitigation or contingent actions · The fundamental conceptual steps used to respond to project risks · The strengths and weaknesses of the project risk management practices 4. In an appendix, identify the risks and categorize each one. (This categorization is left to you; however, you might include external risks, such as regulatory and currency changes, or technical risks, such as complexity or design.) You must discuss the appendix in the body of your paper. In other words, do not simply say “see appendix,” but rather explain what the appendix covers. 5. Discuss the prioritization of the risks identified, their severity, and the management response strategies Submission: · Write a paper addressing the Recovery Plan project. Your paper should be 8-10 pages in length, not including the required title and references pages and the appendix. · Support your paper with a minimum of three to four current scholarly sources from the CSU-Global Library (no older than five years). This is in addition to any course textbooks or lecture material you decide to use. Of course, you may always exceed the minimum number of sources. · Assess and critique the risk response strategies used and identify a minimum of three new recommended risk response strategies in response to the risks identified.
  • 15. · Format your entire paper according to the CSU-Global Guide to Writing & APA (Links to an external site.). Available online at www.sciencedirect.com www.elsevier.com/locate/ijproman International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 Project risk management practice: The case of a South African utility company Riaan van Wyk a, Paul Bowen b,*, Akintola Akintoye c a Electricity Supply Commission of South Africa (ESKOM), South Africa b Department of Construction Economics and Management, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa c School of the Built and Natural Environment, Glasgow Caledonian University, Cowcaddens Road, Glasgow, Scotland, UK Received 26 October 2006; received in revised form 26 February 2007; accepted 20 March 2007 Abstract This paper documents the risk management practice of a utility company for its Recovery Plan project to address the risks of power interruptions due to a shortfall of supply and increasing electricity demand. The company’s corporate risk management process and its
  • 16. practice at divisional and project levels are discussed. The key role of stakeholders in risk identification, analysis, mitigation, monitoring and reporting is emphasised by the company and this drives its risk management practice. Despite the level of resources available within the company to use more sophisticated risk management tools, the company adopts simple risk management methods suggesting that a large size company does not necessarily use ‘state of the art’ risk management techniques. Recommendations for improved practice are made. � 2007 Elsevier Ltd and IPMA. All rights reserved. Keywords: Risk management; Utility; Case study; Stakeholder; Electricity; South Africa 1. Introduction Risk management continues to be a major feature of the project management of large construction, engineering and technological projects in an attempt to reduce uncertainties and to achieve project success. Miller and Lessard [1] have argued why large engineering projects should be carefully managed given that they are ‘‘high stakes games’’ charac- terised by substantial irreversible commitments, skewed reward structures in case of success, and high probabilities of failure. In addition, they categorised the risk associated with different types of projects ranging from oil platform projects, nuclear-power projects, hydro-electric-power pro- jects, urban transport projects, road and tunnel systems, and research and development projects. They are of the opinion that power projects possess moderate risks in so far as engineering is concerned, but are very difficult in 0263-7863/$30.00 � 2007 Elsevier Ltd and IPMA. All rights reserved.
  • 17. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.03.011 * Corresponding author. Tel.: +27 21 650 3445; fax: +27 21 689 7564. E-mail address: [email protected] (P. Bowen). terms of social acceptability. Elkingston and Smallman [2] examined project risk management practices of British utility companies given that the utilities sector (comprising water, power, telecommunications) is associated with less predictable projects which are perceived to be riskier than day-to-day business activities. They argued that risk man- agement is an integral part of project management in this sector; hence, most large companies put substantial resources into the management of their business risk. The current paper presents the risk management of a Recovery Plan project of the Eskom Holdings Ltd. power company in South Africa. Eskom Holdings Ltd. is wholly owned by the South African government. The company is a vertically-integrated operation that generates, trans- mits, and distributes electricity to industrial, mining, com- mercial, agricultural, re-distributors and residential users. It is also involved in the purchase and sale of electricity to and from South African Development Community (SADC) countries, comprising Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zambia. mailto:[email protected] Shantelle Hildred 150 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 The company’s business is divided into a number of divi-
  • 18. sions: Generation, Transmission and Distribution; Resource and Strategy; Finance, Key Sales and Customers Services; Enterprises; Human Resources; and Corporate and External Relations. The group has many main subsidi- aries, with the core businesses including non-regulated elec- tricity supply industry activities, the provision of electricity supply and related services outside South Africa, the grant- ing of home loans to employees, the management and insurance of perceived risks to Eskom, and social invest- ment initiatives. The company’s revenue in the 12 months of the 2005/2006 financial year was R36,607m (US$4947m or £2662m)1 and employed some 29,697 per- sons (excluding contract and temporary workers). This paper does not add to the theory of risk management. Rather, the purpose is to document rich case study material indicating the practice of risk management and the extent to which practice and theory converge/diverge. One of the authors is currently employed by Eskom in a project management capacity, thus facilitating access to the case material presented here. The case study has been structured into four parts: Part 1 describes the corporate risk management process of the holding company. Part 2 presents the risk management process of a division of the company; the distributive divi- sion being used for this purpose. Part 3 presents the case study of a Recovery Plan project of the division to address the risks of power interruptions due to a shortfall of supply and increasing electricity demand. Part 4 documents the conclusions emanating from the study. The lesson from the case study is that a (very) large company with an appro- priate level of resources may not necessarily use sophisti- cated risk management tools; rather, simple methods that enable the company to mitigate the risks faced by the busi- ness are adopted. 2. Corporate risk management within Eskom Holdings Ltd.
  • 19. Risk management within Eskom is an important and integral element of the business. Given the importance of risk management, the company has a dedicated Risk Man- agement Committee (RMC) as one of its seven primary committees (the other committees are the Board commit- tee, audit committee, tender committee, human resources committee, remuneration and ethics committee, sustain- ability committee, and executive management committee). The RMC comprises three non-executive directors, the finance director and the managing director (Generation division). The RMC is chaired by an independent, non- executive director. The committee is tasked with ensuring that the company’s risk management strategies and pro- cesses are aligned with best practice. It also deals with 1 Exchange rates as at 7th September 2006: R7.40 SA Rands = US$1; R13.75 SA Rands = £1. the company’s integrated risk management strategy and processes, these embracing risk tolerance and appetite, risk accountably, major risk exposures, and emerging risk issues. Eskom practices an integrated risk management strategy and process by identifying risks and opportunities against business objectives during risk assessments throughout the organisation, from both a line and functional perspec- tive. Risk integration between divisions and subsidiaries is reviewed by the RMC to ensure a coordinated approach to risk mitigation measures. Key risk management ‘‘buzz words’’ feature prominently in the company’s risk manage- ment process, as depicted in the company’s 186 page 2006 annual report (http://www.eskom.co.za/annreport06/). The risk prefixes that are contained in the annual report include: exposure, assessment, accountability, internal con- trol, matrix, categories, mitigation measures, tolerance lev-
  • 20. els, categories, identification, evaluation, appetite, profile, audit, financing, issues, process, ownership, etc. A content analysis of the annual report shows that the word ‘risk’ is mentioned 206 times whilst the term ‘risk management’ is mentioned 56 times; these being explicit indicators of the importance that the company attaches to the risks to which it is exposed. Risk categories that the company faces are defined in the company’s risk matrix, and include: finance, technical, environmental, legal, human resources, informa- tion, stakeholders, regulatory and strategic. The remit of the company’s Risk Management Commit- tee (RMC) is to ensure that Integrated Risk Management (IRM) is applied throughout the Eskom business. It reviews the risk processes and all major risks within the business and reports back to the Board. Integration between the various Eskom divisions and subsidiaries is ensured via the interaction of the different risk (or risk- related) committees. Each division within the company handles its own Risk Management System and may have slightly different risk approaches within each of the six regions: Western; Eastern; Northern; North-West; South- ern; and Central. This diversity is allowed as long as it sup- ports the strategy and milestones set by the RMC which encourages a coordinated and common approach for the business as a whole. Eskom has adopted the Code of Practice published by the Institute of Risk Management of South Africa. In addition, it has developed its own methodology for deter- mining the ‘value’ or weighting for specific risks faced by the company. These weightings are used to assist the organisation to better identify which risks should receive priority and also show the value of risk mitigation mea- sures. Aligned to this valuation methodology there are risk tolerance levels for each division and main subsidiar-
  • 21. ies, together with risk appetite parameters for each func- tional risk area. Being a South African utility company with a wider remit for the sale and purchase of electricity from neighbouring countries, the company has identified some risks that it considers it faces. These are depicted in Table 1. http://www.eskom.co.za/annreport06 Table 1 A list of key risks faced by the company Key risks 1. Regulatory risk that encompasses the need for clear regulatory framework and adequate price increases to ensure long-term sustainability 2. Future capacity, where the following needs to be addressed: a. The availability of capacity in the long-term b. The impact of new capital projects on the overall business c. The ongoing ability to maintain consistent supply d. Aging plant and increasing plant performance indicators 3. Debt management of small power users 4. Non-technical energy losses where the theft of conductors results in the lack of supply of power and the potential for injuries to the public 5. The ability to respond to changes in the industry arising from the proposed new Electricity Supply Industry in South Africa while
  • 22. meeting the shareholder’s objective for the company 6. Shareholder relationships with the focus on the ability to manage the different expectations of the shareholder and government departments in terms of Eskom’s business objectives 7. Information security, management of the outsourced information technology service contract, lack of skills and resources, and infor- mation technology business continuity management 8. Availability of the skills required for the future business needs including skills retention, training and succession planning. The impact of HIV/AIDS is also addressed as a component of this key risk area 2 The King Reports on Corporate Governance (King I and King II), published by the King Committee on Corporate Governance, aimed at promoting the highest standards of corporate governance in South Africa. More specifically, the King I Report dealt with financial and regulatory aspects of corporate governance and, in addition, advocated an integrated approach to good governance in the interests of a wide range of stakeholders. With the publication of the King II Report, in terms of which risk management received official consideration for the first time in South Africa, companies are now required to audit risk exposure on an
  • 23. annual basis and disclose it to their shareholders. In addition, King II acknowledged that a company’s activities are more than profit to shareholders, embracing economic, environmental and social aspects. R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 151 3. Risk Management System within the Distribution Division Given that each Division and each region within the company handles its own Risk Management System, risk management within the Distribution (Western Region) Division forms part of the responsibilities of the Business Planning and Integrated Risk (BPIR) Committee which is led by the BPIR Manager. BPIR is therefore a subcom- mittee of the Regional (Western) Executive Committee (REC). BPIR duties focus on a holistic business planning and integration function, which includes all associated risks. The REC appoints the members and chairperson of the BPIR committee, who, in return, report back and advise on all Region’s business risk-related matters. Membership of BPIR consists of REC members, subject matter experts and other Eskom officials. They manage the entire Risk Management Process at regional level and include issues around process deadlocks and emer- gency preparedness. The BPIR committee meets once a month and has iden- tified the following attributes of its approach to the overall Eskom Integrated Risk Management (IRM): � assists with business decision-making as more informa- tion becomes available from the risk process being executed;
  • 24. � facilitates learning from and incorporating lessons from the past; � allows for an external view on matters which could lead to more issues being identified; � provides for integration between the different functional departments leading to the optimal addressing of risk issues; � allows identification of any opportunities arising from the matters at hand; � ensures focus on objectives, keeping in line with the regional objectives and those set by the Risk Manage- ment Committee at Board level; � ensures a proper audit trail for all risk-related matters: the origin, owner, actions decided upon and taken, and progress; � assists with decision making, by providing input into the continuous business planning which is also a function of this committee; � very importantly, it strives to protect against any impact to the region’s financial results and image; and � meets the requirements of the King II2 report. 4. Case study of the Western Cape Recovery Plan project One of the projects of the Western Region Distribution Division is Eskom’s Recovery Plan for the Western Cape. The project was developed to address the current risk of power interruptions due to a shortfall of supply and increas- ing electricity demand during the winter period. To under-
  • 25. stand the reasons for the shortfall in supply, it is necessary to understand how the Western Cape is supplied with elec- tricity and the existing constraints surrounding this. The Western Cape requires up to 4250 MegaWatt (MW) of power supply daily over peak periods during the winter months. This is supplied from four power stations that pro- vide a combined total of 4780 MW as follows: 2 · Nuclear reactors at the Koeberg Nuclear Station (900 MW · 2) 1800 MW Coal power stations in Mpumalanga 2400 MW Palmiet hydro-electric pump station 400 MW Steenbras hydro-electric pump station 180 MW Total 4780 MW However, there are peak periods in this region when there is a surge in power consumption and these usually occur between 5am and 8am, and 6pm and 8pm during week days as shown in Fig. 1.
  • 26. During routine maintenance on Unit 1 at the Koeberg Nuclear Station in late 2005 serious damage was done to the generator and its cooling system for this Unit. How- Fig. 1. Demand for electricity as shown in the peak periods. 152 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 ever, the nuclear reactor was not affected. The time for repairing the generator and cooling system was set for at least three months from January 2006. The repair pro- gramme was focused on minimizing the period for Unit 1 to be out of service. This meant that various options had to be considered which included obtaining replacement parts (i.e. stator and rotor), acquiring spare parts, and repairing the damaged parts. The dismantling of the Unit 1 generator is considered a slow process due to the cool down period required (5 days) and separation of the rotor and stator (10 days). After the assessment of the extent of the damage, it was decided to start repairs to the stator and rotor and obtain a spare rotor from a company in France. This particular company had been the original advisors to the Koeberg plant some 20 years ago. During this time, Koeberg Unit 2 continued to provide the required electricity to the Western Cape. However, a number of power interruptions were experienced during the month of February 2006 due to a variety of reasons, including: 1. Unit 6 of the Kendal Power Station in Mpumalanga tripped causing a large fluctuation on the National Net- work. As a safety precaution, Koeberg’s Unit 2 was removed from the grid and placed in a controlled shut
  • 27. down. After the stabilisation of the network, it took Unit 2 about a week to start up and increase generation to full capacity. Due to the shortage of supply during this period, load shedding (controlled black-outs) were required and implemented. Public opinion was vocifer- ous in its condemnation of Eskom. 2. Flash-overs between transmission lines due to high pol- lution from veld fires and unexpected fog caused various power lines to trip; interrupting the power flow from the north and forcing Koeberg’s Unit 2 to remove itself from the grid once again. This led to more load shedding to manage the power shortage. This served only to increase public condemnation. Another risk was identified from the scheduled refuel- ling of Unit 2 which was scheduled for March 2006. How- ever, the repairs to Unit 1 had to be completed in time so that Unit 2 could be shut down for approximately two months to complete the refuelling and routine maintenance procedures. In normal circumstances both units would then have been ready to provide power for the winter months. The rotor from France was only expected (and delivered) during April 2006 and the repairs to the local rotor and sta- tor were still underway at that time. It was impossible to remove Unit 2 before Unit 1 was repaired as there was no means to provide for the shortfall in electricity supply. The economic impact of the February power outages was estimated to be in excess of R500 million (about US$68m or £36m) and was subject of discussion at provincial and national governmental levels. To remove Unit 2 from the grid would immediately mean a shortfall of another 900 MW and would force further load shedding to occur with its associated economic impact. The Western Cape Recovery Plan was an effort to do the following: (1) explain the electricity supply problem;
  • 28. (2) forecast the power demand and expected shortfall for the winter months; (3) provide the timelines for Koeberg R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 153 Unit 1 to be repaired and Unit 2 to be refuelled; (4) iden- tify all risks that could impact on the project plan; (5) develop mitigating actions for the identified risks; (6) iden- tify other energy saving options to minimize the impact of the shortfall; (7) provide load shedding principles and guidelines; and (8) provide stakeholder and communica- tion guidelines. This plan was a combined effort between Eskom, the City of Cape Town (electricity department) and RED ONE (the recently formed regional electricity distributor). Load Shedding Streamlead KSACS Streamlead DSM Streamlead Customer Services Streamlead Grid and National Control Streamlead Human Resources Streamlead Koeberg/Generation Streamlead Corporate Finance
  • 29. Streamlead Eskom Enterprises Streamlead Other Corporate Functions Key PM DSM ERD WR Recovery Programme PMO Recovery Programme Manager National Recovery Sponsor Transmission Managing Director Western Region Risk Manager Fig. 2. Team structure for the Weste Eskom Holdings Eskom Executive Eskom Recovery Team
  • 30. Dept of Public Enterprises Dept of Provincial &Local Government Provincial Government Energy Risk Management Committee ERMC Recovery Team Integrated Recovery Team M Fig. 3. Stakeholder structure for risk man An Eskom Recovery Team was established which was headed by the Managing Director of the Transmission Division. The team structure is shown in Fig. 2. The team reported into a bigger operating model made up of various stakeholders headed by the Energy Risk Management Committee (ERMC) as shown in Fig. 3. The Eskom
  • 31. Recovery Team (ERT) met at least once every two weeks where progress on the Recovery Plan was given. The feed- back was consolidated and forwarded to the Integrated Recovery Team and finally to ERMC. A weekly status Corporate Communications/ERD Streamlead WR Communications & Stakeholders Streamlead Corporate Spokesperson SO – Programme Management Office – Demand Side Management – External Relations Dept. – Western Region Corporate Communications & Stakeholder Manager Regional Recovery Sponsor Western Region General Manager rn Cape Recovery Plan project. unicipal Municipal Recovery Team RED1 Other Stakeholders Dept of Minerals
  • 32. & Energy agement of the Recovery Plan project. 154 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 report was also compiled by ERT and published internally within Eskom and externally to the general public. 5. Risk management of the Recovery Plan project There are typically five stages associated with risk man- agement, namely: (1) risk management planning, (2) risk identification, (3) qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, (4) risk response planning, and (5) risk monitoring and con- trol [3]. However, Edwards and Bowen [4] state that the pro- cess of risk management should include evaluation and reporting and they have as a result categorised the process of risk management into nine stages: Identification; Classifi- cation; Allocation; Analysis; Response; Recording; Moni- toring; Control; and Evaluation. Chapman [5] identified nine phases of the generic risk management process (RMP), comprising: define; focus; identify; structure, owner- ship; eliminate; evaluate; plan and manage. Practically, how- ever, it is possible to classify all these stages into a four-stage risk management cycle: risk identification; risk analysis; risk response; and risk reporting. The risk identification stage includes classification and allocation, while risk reporting includes monitoring, control and evaluation. The risk man- agement practice of the Recovery Plan project within the Eskom integrated risk management protocol is presented below along the lines of this four-stage framework. 5.1. Risk identification (and classification and allocation) of
  • 33. the Recovery Plan project The role of stakeholders in the RMP is emphasised by Loosemore et al. [6]. According to them, effective and fre- quent involvement of stakeholders at all stages of the RMP will ensure that more risks are identified and commitment obtained in managing them. Stakeholder management becomes very critical in the risk identification process given that they can have conflicting interests and the risks identi- fied could be biased towards those interests or limited to their own experiences. The possibility that the stakeholder mix could change over time also has an impact on project objec- tives and its associated risks. Furthermore, stakeholders might be unable to express their objectives clearly or limit the sharing of valid information due to confidentiality or inter-stakeholder politics. Hence, they have suggested that the risk manager or risk management service provider should encourage stakeholders to balance their objectives with one another, be flexible where possible, and understand the pres- sures and background under which objectives are created. It is generally accepted that companies with organic structures allow for more creative and imaginary approaches to identify risks, though it is still easier for mechanistic structured companies to implement those approaches [4]. This is because the latter could provide backing in the form of authority sources, addressing possi- ble resistance. Hence, companies’ management should be committed to the risk management process, identifying leaders with a strong personal passion for the subject. The classification of risks creates a common framework for grouping risks, although different cultures could classify the same risk differently. Edwards and Bowen [4] suggest two primary categories for classifying risks: Natural and Human Risks. Natural risks are those from systems ‘‘beyond
  • 34. human agency’’ which include risks from weather, geologi- cal, biological and extraterrestrial systems. Risks from human systems are more difficult to categorise due to their overlapping nature. These include risks from social, political, cultural, health, legal, economic, financial, technical and managerial systems. Baber [7] refers to internally and exter- nally generated risks. The Project Management Institute [8] classifies risk into internal and external. Examples of internal risk in project development are issues relating to labour, materials, site conditions, cash flow, etc., while external risks include governmental regulations, vandalism, sabotage, environmental factors, market forces, inflation, etc. It is generally accepted as a good risk management prac- tice that a risk should be allocated to the party who can best manage it that risk. To avoid duplication it is suggested that continuous investigations are undertaken during the pro- cess of risk management to ensure that another stakeholder has not already taken up the control of a risk [6]. Eskom, in general, is very risk aware and has invested considerable resources into this project management prac- tice within the company. Many processes are in place to identify and manage potential risks in its various functional areas. Within its Distribution Division the foci of opera- tions are customer services, engineering (safety standards – occupational safety and health requirements); finance; human resources; information management; and commer- cial. All of these functional departments are represented on the BPIR Committee where risks are raised and man- aged. At this level risks are categorized as follows: finance; technical operation and performance; legal audit and com- pliance; people; strategic acquisitions, divestitures and pro- jects; strategy; transformation; pricing; regulatory (NER); stakeholders; information; subsidiaries, associates and joint ventures.
  • 35. In this particular case, the main reason for the inade- quate supply capacity to meet the needs of the Western Cape within the normally envisaged risk possibility of a loss of generation at Koeberg was aggravated by decisions by central government that limited the capacity of Eskom to build new power stations or transmission lines. Arising from the White Paper on Energy Policy [9], government decided it was necessary to proceed with ‘the unbundling of Eskom’s generation and transmission groups’ and ‘sep- arate the power stations into a number of companies’ to ‘create the opportunity for private sector and Black Eco- nomic Empowerment investment opportunities in the gen- eration sector’. Later, the Intergovernmental Fiscal Review [10] stated ‘The ESI restructuring involves three key aspects: the sale of 30 per cent of Eskom’s generating capacity to private investors, with a black empowerment equity stake of at least 10 per cent of capacity; the separa- tion of Eskom into several generation clusters and a sepa- 3 Eskom initiated a schemed whereby the public were encouraged to exchange their conventional light bulbs for less electricity- consuming CFLs – at no cost to the consumer. R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 155 rate transmission company; and the introduction of an electricity market, which will ensure competition between the different electricity generators. These reforms will begin during the course of 2003.’ The central government had taken responsibility to manage the investment decisions of the supply industry, and it was only in late 2004, with
  • 36. looming insufficient capacity, that the decision was made to return the responsibility for electricity sufficiency to Eskom [11]. Thus, Eskom was constrained by external forces in its ability to respond to identified risk. Most sub- sequent risk was a consequence of this external risk. The identified risks are usually assigned to the BPIR Committee members for mitigation. Although the commit- tee members remain accountable, they could subsequently delegate the risk mitigation actions and management to rel- evant staff within the establishment. The Eskom Recovery Team panel of experts responsible for addressing the Western Cape Recovery Plan project comprised senior managers drawn from the following departments and/or divisions: National Recovery Sponsor (this is represented by the Managing Director of the Trans- mission Division who has overall accountability for execut- ing the Recovery Plan); Regional Recovery Sponsor (represented by the General Manager of Distribution – Western Region); and Programme Manager (Risk Manager – Distribution (Western Region), responsible for driving the Recovery Team from a project and risk management perspective). Other functions represented on the panel are Project Managers and Consultants; Load Shedding stream, Demand Side Management stream; Grid and National Control stream, Koeberg stream (represented by the Production Manager for Generation – Nuclear Cluster – who is responsible for all activities happening at the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station, i.e. repairing of Unit 1, shutting down of Unit 2 for refuelling, and managing the output capacities of the separate units); Eskom Enterprises stream; Key Sales and Customer Services stream; Customer Services stream; Human Resources stream, Finance stream; Other Corporate Functions (Managers from Legal, Audit and Security at corporate level); External Relations Depart-
  • 37. ment stream; and Communication and Stakeholder stream. This is a comprehensive stakeholder panel to ensure that no function within Eskom that may contribute to the solu- tion to resolve the risks associated with the Recovery Plan project is left out. This panel compiled an extensive list of risks and mitigating actions based on their individual exper- tise and input from their respective teams and business envi- ronments. Some risks were identified based on previous experience, whilst others were based on documented rules and regulations (especially in the nuclear environment). The panel also identified risk ownership and reporting mechanisms around these risks as shown in Table 2. Many of the risks listed in Table 2 have arisen as a result of the mitigation strategies for others. For example, the risk of not being able to supply the demand for electricity (Risk No. 20) is mitigated by Demand Side Management (DSM) initiatives like providing an exchange programme for Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFLs).3 Provision of enough lights (Risk No. 23) and the public’s take-on of the programme (Risk No. 21) became additional risks to manage as a result mitigating Risk No. 20. In addition, there were a couple of unidentified risks which arose as time went by: (i) a faulty valve at Koeberg was discovered after Unit 1 was returned to service; (ii) a pinhole leak was discovered in Koeberg Unit 1, though it posed no threat to operations; and (iii) a problem with the electrical supply boards at Koeberg was discovered which forced Unit 1 to shut down after it had been re- commissioned. The risk identification matrix (Table 2) also indicates whether Eskom or the City of Cape Town (or both) is responsible to action the risks. The relevant Recovery
  • 38. Team’s members are identified as accountable for particu- lar risks and they are able to delegate such risks to the rel- evant staff as appropriate. Despite the involvement on the panel of various stake- holders in the risk identification, classification and alloca- tion processes, certain shortcomings became apparent, including: (1) a weak relationship between Eskom and the City of Cape Town (the two key ownerships – internal and external respectively – of the various risks) leading to each blaming the other and miscommunications to the public, i.e. customers; (2) lack of an integrated Recovery Plan between the different stakeholders (probably due to an excessive number of members on the panel); and (3) the risks were not necessarily categorised according to Eskom standards i.e., they were grouped according to the business areas identified for the Recovery Plan (i.e., Load Shedding, Koeberg, Communication, etc.). The excuse given for these shortcomings in the risk management pro- cess at the identification stage is the crisis situation under which these risks were identified. 5.2. Risk analysis of the Recovery Plan project It is important for perceived risks to be evaluated, decomposed, and subjected to some form of assessment in order to understand the magnitude of the risks facing the organization [4]. The assessment method, which should be appropriate for the risk and organisation, should mea- sure the risk severity to determine what management action and priority to apply. Risk analysis relies on a qualitative and/or quantitative approach. It is, however, suggested that quantitative risk analysis should only follow on qual- itative risk analysis, where the latter has exposed important risks which could be analysed with reliable data and where numbers will make logical sense and could be interpreted
  • 39. sensibly [6]. Qualitative risk analyses could, in many cases, be sufficient to assess the magnitude of risks, although such analysis is subjective and subject to errors of judgement. To Table 2 Risk identified for Western Cape Recovery Plan project Risk no. Description Allocated to Eskom City of Cape Town 1 Collapse of aging infrastructure due to frequent switching X 2 Inability to stick to load shedding schedules X X 3 Insufficient numbers of authorized staff for manual switching operations X 4 Poor operational communications X 5 Poor communications with public X X 6 Inability to soften impact X X 7 Dependency on standby plant and equipment X 8 Normal maintenance and refurbishment/expansion work will be impacted by the abnormal state of the networks, resulting in maintenance backlogs, failure to complete projects, etc. X X 9 Electricity staff burn-out will result in low efficiency, increased risk of accidents and equipment damage X
  • 40. 10 Potential commissioning delays in the recovery of Unit 1: X � Potential for commissioning delays due to the rotor from France not being identical to the one removed to Rosherville � Another reason for commissioning delays could include stator bar failure during stator repair � Past records indicate that delays in unit start-up following an outage are quite common 11 Koeberg: Unexpected tripping on the turbine-generator set X 12 Koeberg: Controlled shutdown due to operational constraints X 13 Delayed return of a Koeberg unit after a trip. X 14 Potential commissioning delays of Unit 2 X 15 Logistics of transporting the generator equipment on time X 16 Unavailability of Palmiet hydro-electric supply X � Due to limited opportunities to restore dam levels, Palmiet could be con- strained in terms of power output. � Potential plant failures could also limit the full output of Palmiet. 17 Failure of some transmission equipment has in past resulted in partial or total blackout of the Cape. X 18 Transmission Lines and substations X � Fires � Fog and mist
  • 41. 19 Total Blackout X 20 Inability to supply the demand of electricity X 21 Extent of consumer adoption of energy efficiency measures less than expected X 22 Verbal and physical abuse of implementers X 23 Project delays caused by time required to acquire equipment (Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL’s), gas cylinders, etc.) X 156 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 overcome the disadvantages associated with qualitative risk analysis, some quantitative attributes can be incorpo- rated making it a semi-quantitative risk analysis. This can be done by assigning predetermined values to the probabil- ity and impact which will result in more precise estimates of risks as shown in Table 3 [4]. Table 3 Predetermined values allocated to probability and impact of risk factor Probability Predetermined Value Impact Predetermined Value Rare 0.10 Insignificant 5% of cost Unlikely 0.30 Minor 10% of cost
  • 42. Possible 0.50 Moderate 20% of cost Likely 0.70 Major 40% of cost Almost Certain 0.90 Catastrophic 80% of cost Of course, different organisations will assign different values for semi-quantitative risk analysis which will take their risk attitude and exposure into account. An organisa- tion could also assign different values for different projects. According to Edwards and Bowen [4], whether organisa- tions use quantitative or qualitative risk analysis methods, decisions could still be based on emotions and ‘gut-feel’ rather than on the results generated by the application of risk analysis techniques. Risks of various natures and magnitudes could arise from the different areas of the Distribution business within Eskom (Customer Services, Engineering, Finance, etc.). Hence, the BPIR Committee has produced a qualitative analysis rating and description protocol to be applied to risk management within the establishment as show in Table 4. Based on the rating and the description protocol, Table 5 Qualitative risk analysis of the Recovery Plan project risks Risk no. Description 1 Collapse of aging infrastructure due to frequent switc 2 Inability to stick to load shedding schedules 3 Insufficient numbers of authorized staff for manual sw 4 Poor operational communications 5 Poor communications with public
  • 43. 6 Inability to soften impact 7 Dependency on standby plant and equipment 8 Normal maintenance and refurbishment/expansion w by the abnormal state of the networks, resulting in m failure to complete projects, etc. 9 Electricity staff burn-out will result in low efficiency, accidents and equipment damage 10 Potential commissioning delays in the recovery of Un � Potential for commissioning delays due to the ro being identical to the one removed to Rosherville � Another reason for commissioning delays could incl during stator repair � Past records indicate that delays in unit start-up fol quite common 11 Koeberg: Unexpected tripping on the turbine-generat 12 Koeberg: Controlled shutdown due to operational co 13 Delayed return of a Koeberg unit after a trip 14 Potential commissioning delays of unit 2 15 Logistics of transporting the generator equipment on 16 Unavailability of Palmiet � Due to limited opportunities to restore dam levels, P strained in terms of power output � Potential plant failures could also limit the full out 17 Failure of some transmission equipment, have in past total blackout of the Cape 18 Transmission Lines and substations
  • 44. � Fires � Fog and mist 19 Total blackout 20 Inability to supply the demand of electricity 21 Extent of consumer adoption of energy efficiency mea expected 22 Verbal and physical abuse of implementers 23 Project delays caused by time required to acquire equ cylinders, etc.) Table 4 BPIR Committee qualitative analysis rating and description Rating Descriptor Probability 1 Adverse event will not occur 3 Highly unlikely that the event will occur 5 Event can occur 7 Highly likely that the event will occur 10 Adverse event will definitely occur Impact 1 Ignore – event is negligible 3 Minor – financial loss or injuries 5 Significant – loss of business, significant financial loss, loss of jobs, some fatalities 7–9 Severe – loss of business opportunities, major financial loss, many job losses and fatalities
  • 45. 10 Catastrophic impact on Eskom or the business entity R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 157 the BPIR Committee is able to decide how the risks will be ranked and prioritised (Table 5). A semi-quantitative approach is also used to evaluate Eskom projects, where probability is indicated as a possi- bility percentage of a risk occurring and impact as a Rand value which relates to the percentage cost impact of the specific project. The product of the probability and impact is then used to determine the ranking of the risk. Quantita- tive risk analysis is mostly applied in the business areas of the company where they are more applicable, e.g. finance and commercial issues where investment risks need to be considered. A qualitative risk analysis method was adopted for the Recovery Plan project, based on the expertise of the Recov- ery Plan team and lessons learnt from previous less serious crisis projects. Quantitative analysis is applied for transmis- sion load factors whilst impact and probability ratings, Impact Probability hing H M H M itching operations M H M M H M M M H H
  • 46. ork will be impacted aintenance backlogs, M M increased risk of M H it 1: H L tor from France not ude stator bar failure lowing an outage are or set H M nstraints H L H M M L time L L H M almiet could be con- put of Palmiet resulted in partial or Very high L H L Very high L M M sures less than H M M L
  • 47. ipment (CFL’s, gas H M Table 7 Risk scenarios for power supply interruption Base Case Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 One Koeberg Unit No Koeberg One Koeberg Unit No Koeberg Two Palmiet Units Two Palmiet Units Two Palmiet Units No Palmiet Unit Tx system intact Tx system intact Tx system contingency
  • 48. Tx system contingency 158 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 based on high, medium or low ratings, are allocated to the risks identified for the project. Priority was given to all risks that could impact on either the restoration of the power supply or the reduction of electricity demand – these being regarded as the main project objectives. As the Recovery Plan was implemented and time moved on, risks were re-assessed and updated accordingly. For example, as the repairs to Koeberg Unit 1 were progressing, the risk of not synchronizing it to the grid was lowered accordingly over time before Unit 2 had to be shut down for refuelling. A quantitative risk analysis method was used to deter- mine the Western Cape power load and its associated risks. Table 6 depicts the load forecast in comparison with supply and the associated predicted shortfall. By using this analy- sis, the Recovery Team was able to compile various risk scenarios pertaining to the possibility of power supply interruptions as shown in Table 7. By using these scenarios, the expected amount of load shedding could be determined as shown in Table 8. Based on this information, load blocks could be designed to manage the amount of load to be shed. Load blocks for different areas were aggregated to determine the required load to be shed. There was a different load block for every two hours that load shedding was required Table 6 Predicted loading and electricity supply for Western Cape Load Forecast Tx Limita Koebergb
  • 49. 13-Mar-06 3967 2400 900 20-Mar-06 3954 2442 858 27-Mar-06 3969 2484 816 3-Apr-06 4036 2526 774 10-Apr-06 3952 2568 732 17-Apr-06 4054 2610 690 24-Apr-06 4003 2652 648 1-May-06 4043 2694 606 8-May-06 4094 2736 564 15-May-06 4223 2778 522 22-May-06 4202 2820 480 29-May-06 4103 2400 900 5-Jun-06 4276 2400 900 12-Jun-06 4267 2400 900 19-Jun-06 4207 2400 900 26-Jun-06 4261 2400 900 3-Jul-06 4191 2400 900 10-Jul-06 4128 2400 900 17-Jul-06 4261 2400 900 24-Jul-06 4130 2400 1800 31-Jul-06 4151 2400 1800 07-Aug-06 4156 2400 1800 14-Aug-06 4201 2400 1800 21-Aug-06 4204 2400 1800 28-Aug-06 4146 2400 1800 04-Sep-06 4174 2400 1800 11-Sep-06 4067 2400 1800 18-Sep-06 4056 2400 1800 25-Sep-06 3948 2400 1800 a Tx limit is the transmission limit on electricity import from the North. 280 b Koeberg’s Unit 2 output was reduced over time to delay its shutdown for c Customer interruptability are those agreements with larger
  • 50. power users to – to ensure that one geographical area was not interrupted for longer than two hours at a time in terms of an under- taking to the general public. The project adopted a combination of qualitative, semi- quantitative and quantitative methods risk analysis depending on the task to be tackled as one would expect. However, certain shortcomings arose from the analyses. In essence, the analyses were as only as good as the data that were used. For example, the load forecast indicated that the week of 5th June would be the period when load shedding could be the worst (i.e. with a 376 MW shortfall). It happened that this week was one of the warmest weeks of the early winter, which of course increased the factor of uncertainty. Nonetheless, it is assumed that the mitigat- Palmiet Customer interruptabilityc Predicted shortfall before DSM 400 200 �67 400 200 �54 400 200 �69 400 200 �136 400 200 �52 400 200 �154 400 200 �103 400 200 �143 400 200 �194 400 200 �323 400 200 �302 400 200 �203 400 200 �376 400 200 �367
  • 51. 400 200 �307 400 200 �361 400 200 �291 400 200 �228 400 200 �361 400 200 670 400 200 649 400 200 644 400 200 599 400 200 596 400 200 654 400 200 626 400 200 733 400 200 744 400 200 852 0 MW is the absolute maximum. refuelling. use self generation over peak periods. Table 8 Load shedding based on the risk scenarios Month Peak load expected (MW) Customer interruptability (MW) Load to be shed in MW Base case Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 March 3969 200 69 569 969 2069
  • 52. April 4054 200 154 654 1054 2154 May 4223 200 323 823 1223 2323 June 4276 200 376 876 1276 2376 July 4261 200 361 861 1261 2361 August 4204 200 – 804 1204 2304 September 4174 200 – 774 1174 2274 % of Peak load to be shed Up to 9% Up to 20% Up to 30% Up to 56% R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 159 ing actions to minimise load shedding is adequate when unexpected shortfalls do occur. In this instance plans were prepared for the forecasted shortfall in power supply, but it never materialised. This means that forecasting could be inaccurate the other way around as well, i.e. a shortfall of power supply when it is not expected. However, it is assumed that even if this should happen, the necessary mit- igating plans will kick in regardless. 5.3. Risk response of the Recovery Plan project The aim of risk response should be to minimise the mag- nitude of the risk or in the case of an upside risk, to maximise its opportunity and benefits [6]. Nonetheless, organisations can decide not to respond to a risk, because, for instance, existing controls are adequate to minimise a threat or where there is a high probability that the risk will disappear in the future. It could also be that risks are so insignificant that nothing needs to be done about them. An organisation’s risk attitude and exposure will guide this decision or it could be that the cost/benefit result of any action is actually negative. It does not, however, mean that these insignificant risks should be denied or forgotten. Rather, they should be con- tinuously monitored to determine if any of the underlying
  • 53. circumstances have changed which might require a different risk response. Public perception and/or legislation could force an organisation to respond to a risk even if it is insig- nificant [6]. This is particularly relevant when it comes to public health issues. For example, any type of radioactive contamination of the environment will create a public expectation for the organisation to attend to the risk or leg- islation will force radioactive materials to be handled in a (more costly) certain manner even if the risk probability and impact is extremely low. Forms of risk response are risk reduction, transfer, avoidance and retention, or a combination of these. An organisation will apply these responses based on its risk attitude and cost/benefit results aiming towards the ‘‘as low as possibly reachable’’ risk that is left and then assign- ing the proper level of management to it [4]. One of the BPIR Committee’s remits was to ensure that the appropriate response was assigned to mitigate risks based on Eskom’s risk response nomenclature: (1) treat risk (i.e. to reduce risk); (2) tolerate risk (i.e. to retain risk); (3) terminate risk (i.e. to avoid risk) and (4) transfer risk. Eskom policy is to provide financial backing to a set of a certain risk decisions. For example, it does not have exter- nal insurance cover for its motor vehicle fleet and would stand in for any claims or repairs that are required in that regard. This is because the company considers that insur- ance premiums on its vast number of vehicles will be much more costly than the occasional cost when a fleet risk does occur. In addition, because the company is continuously in the public eye, it prefers to address insignificant risk (toler- ate insignificant risk) to improve its corporate image. For example, the company continuously endeavours to mini- mise pollution from its coal stations although the emission levels are well within acceptable regulatory levels and spec-
  • 54. ifications. The company, however, will prefer to share or transfer some project risks to a project partner or third party on a high magnitude value project. Table 9 shows the various mitigating actions that the Recovery Plan project team applied in their attempt to reduce the impact and probability of the risks identified and analysed by the team. The table shows that Eskom car- ries most of the risks by treating and tolerating them. Although it is difficult to comment on the validity of the selected mitigating actions, the response options that Eskom took shows the level of its capacity to absorb mas- sive financial impacts of risks given that the Demand Side Management risk mitigation initiatives alone amounted to R230 million (about US$31M or £17m) while the total Recovery Plan project was estimated at R1.2 billion (about US$162M or £87m). An amount of R645m was spent dur- ing the crisis period. The remainder of the budget is planned for work previously unplanned, to be undertaken in terms of the lessons learned and to prevent similar situ- ations arising in the future e.g. a line re-insulation project. Timelines are until 2011. Part of the Demand Side Management risk mitigation strategic was television broadcasts to the public using col- our codes to mitigate the risk of poor communication risk with the public. Unfortunately, an anomaly was created by using the same colour scenarios on television for load shed- ding purposes and the Power Alert campaign. The Power Alert campaign used colour code scenarios to inform Table 9 Risk responses strategies for the Recovery Plan project
  • 55. Risk no. Description Mitigation 1 Collapse of aging infrastructure due to frequent switching � Identify ‘problem’ areas � Reduce switching? � Repair/replace 2 Inability to stick to load shedding schedules � Redesign blocks with larger margin of safety � Use scenarios 3 Insufficient numbers of authorized staff for manual switching operations � Train, authorize additional switching personnel � Arrange load blocks such that most switching can be done via SCADA (remote) 4 Poor operational communications � Share info with ESKOM � Dedicated phone lines 5 Poor communications with public � Implement communications strategy � Increase fault reporting centre, better routing of calls 6 Inability to soften impact � DSM, ripple control, better shedding schedules, communication strategy 7 Dependency on standby plant and equipment � Critical allocation of available plant and equipment to support key installations
  • 56. 8 Normal maintenance and refurbishment/expansion work will be impacted by the abnormal state of the networks, resulting in maintenance backlogs, failure to complete projects, etc. � Facilitate that most of these activities continue � Create an understanding, through good communication with con- sumers, for these activities 9 Electricity staff burn-out will result in low efficiency, increased risk of accidents and equipment damage � Arrange load blocks such that most switching can be done via SCADA � Limit need for overtime Better planned switching schedules. Dual shift system for ops centre 10 Potential commissioning delays in the recovery of Unit 1: � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Inspections have occurred in France and actions taken to mitigate this difficulty. Further inspec- tions will occur once the rotor arrives on site. The project team is monitoring the situation closely and pro-actively taking actions to minimize the risk � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: The project team is monitoring the situation closely and pro-actively taking actions to minimize
  • 57. the risk � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Production Manager role assigned (24/7) focusing on current and future activities to minimize any risks � Potential for commissioning delays due to the rotor from France not being identical to the one removed to Rosherville � Another reason for commissioning delays could include stator bar failure during stator repair � Past records indicate that delays in unit start-up following an out- age are quite common 11 Koeberg: Unexpected tripping on the turbine-generator set � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Communicated to applicable Transmission staff � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Worker instructions for stretch- out operations have been developed and implemented previously. Production Manager role assigned (24/7) focusing on current and future activities to minimize any risks � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Production Manager role assigned (24/7) focusing on current and future activities to minimize any risks � The strategy is to TOLERATE the risk since it is not deemed
  • 58. significant 12 Koeberg: Controlled shutdown due to operational constraints � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Communicated to applicable Peaking staff � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Production Manager role assigned (24/7) focusing on current and future activities to minimize any risks. The number of PTs will be minimised � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Production Manager role assigned (24/7) focusing on current and future activities to minimize any risks � The risk strategy is to respond only once informed since no fore- knowledge is possible 13 Delayed return of a Koeberg unit after a trip � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: This is due to physical properties of the core at this stage in its operation and cannot be changed � The risk strategy is to respond only once NNR communicate a con- cern since no foreknowledge is possible 14 Potential commissioning delays of unit 2 � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: Production Manager role assigned (24/7) focusing on current and future activities to minimize any risks
  • 59. 160 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 Table 9 (continued) Risk no. Description Mitigation 15 Logistics of transporting the generator equipment on time � The strategy is to TREAT the risk: A team in France comprised of Eskom, Alsthom, EdF and French customs representatives are working to ensure that the departure of the rotor from France remains on track. It is confirmed that the SA Navy ship, the SAS Drakensberg, will be used to expedite transport. This will cut approximately one week off the shipment time. The ship will be tracked on a daily basis. A dedicated logistics team is currently working on customs and port arrangements as well as transportation from CT Harbour to Koeberg. In addition, recovery of the Koeberg rotor currently being repaired at Rosherville is being pursued in parallel to the shipment of the EdF rotor 16 Unavailability of Palmiet � Not captured � Due to limited opportunities to restore dam levels, Palmiet could be constrained in terms of power output � Potential plant failures could also limit the full output of Palmiet
  • 60. 17 Failure of some transmission equipment, have in past resulted in partial or total blackout of the Cape � Not captured 18 Transmission lines and substations � Fires: Extension of the fire protection agents (FPAs) to other areas. FPAs are for fire management, and include local fire departments, policing forums and civil society � Fog and Mist: Re-insulation of the lines – Replacing glass with sili- con composite insulators (short-term – focus on key lines and pro- jects to focus on all coastal lines) � Fires � Fog and mist 19 Total Blackout � Regional Control will be directed by National Control � There will be direct communication between Eskom’s Regional and National Control with City of Cape Town’s Control Centre � The Emergency Operating Centre (EOC) will be responsible for communication with the Regional Crisis Centre � If the EOC is not yet active the Regional Control Centre will alert the Regional Crisis Centre (Required is only one contact person
  • 61. to avoid sidetracking the Control Centre from doing switching) � The emergency will further be managed as per the ESKOM proce- dures do restore power supply to affected areas in the Cape � All communication with ESKOM will be through the EOC � All external communication about the blackout will be through the Regional Crisis Centre 20 Inability to supply the demand of electricity � Initiate various Demand Side Management Programmes. This will include: � CFL exchange � Self generation � Gas conversions � Voluntary conservation � Subsidising electricity efficient devices 21 Extent of consumer adoption of energy efficiency measures less than expected � A diverse range of projects will be pursued. Successful projects will be accelerated to make up for projects with lower success 22 Verbal and physical abuse of implementers � Implementers will work in teams and will avoid ‘hot spots’ 23 Project delays caused by time required to acquire equipment (CFL’s, gas cylinders, etc.) � Procurement processes will be streamlined as far as possible
  • 62. R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 161 viewers of what the immediate situation was and to request them to take certain actions. For example, a green scenario on TV meant ‘‘No action is required’’, although for load shedding purposes up to 9% of load could be shed at any time. The red scenario requested users to switch off multi- ple appliances and power points (e.g., from electric heating to unnecessary lighting); this also meant up to 30% load shedding. The 30% load shedding meant one third of the Western Cape could sit in the dark; this was a very consid- erable risk! There was lack of correlation between the severity of the TV alert program and what the actual situ- ation was. It worked out well nonetheless, as very few inter- ruptions took place during the time that interruptions were expected – except for an unexpected fault at Koeberg which forced Unit 1 to be shut down. Although all the crisis plans were in place and the principles of the Western Cape Recovery Plan were immediately applied, it could not avert controlled blackouts in the City and surrounding areas as a result of fault at Koeberg Unit 1. The main problem, however, with the mitigation strate- gies employed was that many of the strategies were imple- mented too slowly; this was apparent for the Demand Side Management initiatives and for communication and stake- holder management. 4 http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/economy/display_article.aspx? Nav=ns&lvl2=econ&ArticleID=1518-25_1836685 (20/10/06). 5 http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=280838&area=/
  • 63. breaking_news/breaking_news__business/ (15/9/06). 6 http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=281096&area=/ breaking_news/breaking_news__business/ (15/9/06). 7 http://www.southafrica.info/what_happening/news/erwin_koe berg180806.htm (20/10/06). 8 061004_Exco Board_Presentation_Close-out Report_RvW2.ppt. Internal Eskom document, unpublished. 162 R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 5.4. Risk reporting (recording, monitoring, control and evaluation) of the Recovery Plan project It is considered good practice for risks to be recorded in a risk log or register database system [12] after they have been identified and assessed. This is to facilitate the moni- toring, control and evaluation of the risks. Each risk should be uniquely identifiable (using a risk number/code), indicating: the description; the type of risk; the assigned risk owner; and the applicable risk response and mitigation action. It is important that the frequency of monitoring the risk and the method of reporting are pre-decided very early in the risk process [4]. At the same time, mode(s) of com- municating the risks to relevant staff and external stake- holders must be introduced [6]. According to Loosemore et al. [6], the greater the risk the more senior management should become involved. This is also important where risk response implementation is likely to meet with resistance, particularly where resources
  • 64. (funds and people) are redirected from other projects or functions to mitigate risks [6]. Monitoring and controlling of risks will highlight the urgency of the Risk Management System and make risks more obvious to identify. It also increases risk awareness and therefore reduces risk magni- tude as more information becomes available; and it should also allow risk knowledge/lessons learnt to be captured for future project use [4]. The BPIR Committee has the oversight responsibility of all the risks within the Western Region Distribution Division business. One of its main objectives is to inte- grate these risks and assess how one risk could impact on, or create, another. It also identifies the risk impact on the other regions, divisions and/or subsidiaries. It aims to make the business more risk-aware and encour- ages the inclusion of risk management processes in the normal business processes. The BPIR Committee suggests that risks be reviewed annually for those where the expo- sure is long term and could have an impact on long-term business objectives. Monthly reviews are done, however, to keep the RMS dynamic and up to date. Ad-hoc risk analyses are undertaken in the case where changes occur that could have a negative (or positive) impact on the business. For project development, the Committee sug- gests that risk analysis and monitoring are undertaken at three stages: concept phase; before implementation; and when there are significant changes/problems during implementation. The risks on the Recovery Plan project were recorded, continuously monitored, and regularly reported to the Committee and to the various stakeholders involved in the project with lessons learnt incorporated into the feed- back process. Nonetheless, the initial Recovery Plan report did not indicate all the risk analysis results on
  • 65. impact, probability and mitigating actions. This was noted and remedied just in time to ensure that these omit- ted information did not impact on the management of the risks. 6. The Western Cape electricity crisis aftermath The National Electricity Regulator South Africa (NERSA) decided to formally investigate the incidents at Koeberg’s Units 1 and 2 which occurred during November 2005. These incidents are not discussed in this report, but were also due to a switching fault and flash-overs between transmission lines due to high pollution from veld (grass) fires.4 At the time only one unit was generating power as the other unit was off line due to maintenance being carried out. NERSA, however, found that Eskom was negligent in terms of maintenance procedures. It identified faulty pro- tection systems and found Eskom in breach of its license conditions. At Koeberg it found deficiencies in its configu- ration management, non-conformance to procedures and ill-discipline in certain areas. The Regulator indicated that, if found guilty, Eskom could be fined up to R300 million.5 Eskom contested the NERSA report and responded that not all incidents indicated negligence or a breach of licensecon- ditions. It emphasised that the nuclear safety regulations, as set by the National Nuclear Regulator (NNR), have never been violated. Eskom has, however, acknowledged that there were oversights regarding some of its practices and procedures.6 The damage done during the January 2006 mainte- nance on Unit 1 (as per the report) was caused by a bolt left behind in the generator. At the time a concern was raised because the bolt was of another type than those used in the generator. Three investigations took place: one by the police and the security services including the National Intelligence Agency, one by the National Energy
  • 66. Regulator, and a third by Eskom itself. Originally it was thought that the unit could have been sabotaged, but these fears were laid to rest after the investigations were completed and the cause of failure ascribed to human error.7 Some of the key lessons learnt include:8 � The Western Cape is vulnerable to power supply issues – ensure mitigation plan is in place at all times. � Ensure support from all operations to allow plant per- sonnel to focus on the problems at hand. � Streamline the communication process to be less cum- bersome and time consuming. � Co-ordinate all communication with government across all three tiers. � Need to know and be sensitive to the direct and knock- on impact on customers and the Economy. http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/economy/display_article.aspx? http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/economy/display_article.aspx? http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=280838&ar ea=/breaking_news/breaking_news__business http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=280838&ar ea=/breaking_news/breaking_news__business http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=281096&ar ea=/breaking_news/breaking_news__business http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=281096&ar ea=/breaking_news/breaking_news__business http://www.southafrica.info/what_happening/news/erwin_koebe rg180806.htm http://www.southafrica.info/what_happening/news/erwin_koebe
  • 67. rg180806.htm R. van Wyk et al. / International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008) 149–163 163 � Ensure protection of Key Industrial Customer loads (within limits). � Prioritise load shedding based on upfront determined principles. � Publish Load Shedding schedules a week in advance and stick to these since businesses plan operations around them. � Restore confidence in the electricity industry, i.e. build/ sustain reputation and corporate image. � Media education and relationship building. � Identify multiple levels of risk and perform adequate risk management. � Understand the impact and importance of various levels of crisis communication and messages being sent out. 7. Conclusions The objective of this paper was to document the process of risk management used by a utility company for manag- ing risks associated with its projects. The paper has reflected on the theory and practice of risk management by presenting risk management of the Recovery Plan pro- ject of the Distribution Division of Eskom Holding Ltd in South Africa. The company’s risk management system policy allows for total risk integration between divisions, regions and functional departments. The company ensures
  • 68. that a risk management process forms part of its strategy and develops a company governance structure to imple- ment and maintain the process. However, potential risks and opportunities are identified within its various business divisions, departments and functions. Risk accountability is implemented at the company, divisional and project lev- els by assigning risks to the members of the risk manage- ment team to ensure that mitigating actions are implemented. The progress of risk mitigation is tracked on a regular basis. However, certain shortcomings are evident in the risk management process of the company. These shortcom- ings include: an excessive number of stakeholders that are represented on the risk management panels and com- mittees; an inability to stick to the overall company risk management process at a time of crisis; and loose imple- mentation of the company’s risk management system across its various divisions and business functions. Lack of integration of external and internal stakeholders (in this case, Eskom and the City of Cape Town) is another shortcoming of the risk management system, as was the associated risk communication to the public and key customers. The company has access to and uses different tech- niques of risk management, suggesting that there is con- gruence between the theory and practice of risk management by the company. However, the company adheres to a very simple risk management process that enables it to carry out its business functions. The com- pany’s use of quantitative risk analysis is very limited, although it has the resources to use more sophisticated types of analyses to assist in its RMS. This tends to sup- port Elkington and Smallwood’s [2] view that the current process that this utility company uses for risk manage-
  • 69. ment is weak. Although this is a utility company with more attendant risks compared with the risks levels and factors faced by other industries, there is no evidence that the company uti- lises more sophisticated risk management tools. Rather, the company strategy was to raise risk awareness within its business supported by high level governance structures and to ensure that risk management is an integral parts of business activities. Risk management activities take place at different levels within the company. Future research could meaningfully be directed at establishing the effectiveness and efficiency of this multilevel risk management strategy. Acknowledgement The authors are indebted to Professor Trevor Gaunt, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Cape Town, for his valuable input concerning external forces ini- tially constraining Eskom’s ability to respond to identified risk. References [1] Miller R, Lessard D. Understanding and managing risks in large engineering projects. Int J Project Manage 2001;19:437–43. [2] Elkingston P, Smallman C. Managing project risks: a case study from utilities sector. Int J Project Manage 2002;20:49–57. [3] Taylor H. Congruence between risk management theory and practice
  • 70. in Hong Kong vendor-driven IT projects. Int J Project Manage 2005;23:437–44. [4] Edwards PJ, Bowen PA. Risk management in project organisations. Elsevier: Butterworth Heinemann; 2005. [5] Chapman C. Project risk analysis and management – PRAM the generic process. Int J Project Manage 1997;15:273–81. [6] Loosemore M, Raftery J, Reily C, Higgon D. Risk management in projects. 2nd ed. Taylor and Francis; 2006. [7] Baker RB. Understanding internally generated risks in projects. Int J Project Manage 2005;23:584–90. [8] Project Management Institute. A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK), 2000 ed. Newton Square, PA: Project Management Institute; 2000. [9] Department of Minerals and Energy (1998) White paper on the Energy Policy of the Republic of South Africa (p.55), available at http://www.dme.gov.za/pdfs/energy/planning/wp_energy_policy _ 1998.pdf (accessed on 11 May 2007). [10] National Treasury (2003) Intergovernmental Fiscal Review, Chapter 12: Electricity (p.230), available at
  • 71. http://www.treasury.gov.za/docu- ments/ifr/2003/chp12.pdf (accessed on 11 May 2007). [11] Phasiwe, K. (2004) Power-Station Plans Pique Foreign Interest. Business Day, 27 October, available at http://allafrica.com/stories/ 200410270280.html (accessed on 14 May 2007). [12] Patterson FD, Neailey KA. Risk Register Database System to aid the management of project risk. Int J Project Manage 2002;20: 365–74. http://www.dme.gov.za http://www.dme.gov.za http://www.treasury.gov.za http://www.treasury.gov.za http://allafrica.com/stories/200410270280.html http://allafrica.com/stories/200410270280.htmlProject risk management practice: The case of a South African utility companyIntroductionCorporate risk management within Eskom Holdings Ltd.Risk Management System within the Distribution DivisionCase study of the Western Cape Recovery Plan projectRisk management of the Recovery Plan projectRisk identification (and classification and allocation) of the Recovery Plan projectRisk analysis of the Recovery Plan projectRisk response of the Recovery Plan projectRisk reporting (recording, monitoring, control and evaluation) of the Recovery Plan projectThe Western Cape electricity crisis aftermathConclusionsAcknowledgementReferences