How can marketers be certain that their offline lead generation is optimised for maximum lead generation at minimal cost? This presentation was presented by Paul Shortridge at the AIDB conference in Johannesburg in September 2017 and explains how this is possible.

1. Predictive Media Buying - a Programmatic
Approach to offline lead generation
1

2. 2
Who we are and Why this presentation
Key Principles
Traditional Methods
Programmatic Approach
Wrap Up
Contents

3. What do we do?
• World first, disruptive solutions in the marketing and media
industries
• Providing efficiency gains and profit improvements in the tens
of millions of Rands per year
• Known for tailor made, extremely accurate, proven approach
to optimising marketing budgets and growing business
How?
• The largest purely analytical media agency in Africa (40+
employees, offices in Cape Town, Johannesburg and Nairobi)
• A reputation for ingenuity and innovation as a result of:
• an average of 2.5 degrees per analyst
• consulting experience in over 50 countries
• highly experienced senior
• the brightest graduates from around Africa
• Level 2 BBBEE rating
Incline

4. Our clients
• Industries Serviced
• Insurance (short and long term)
• Banking
• Retail Credit
• NGO’s
• Predominantly South African but have clients in the Middle
East and Africa
Assist clients with
Design and optimisation across all stages of the growth and
account lifecycle:
• Direct marketing/media campaigns
• Credit Risk
• Account management
• Client communications
• Development of flexible cost effective easily implementable
solutions
• Integration of solutions with existing infrastructure

5. Television
42%
Other Above the Line
11%
SMS campaigns
18%
Digital campaigns
11%
Cold Modelled Leads
18%
Sales potential (typical Insurance)
 Far more scalable than any other
marketing channel
Above The Line Media is …
?
Why would this presentation be
interesting?
 POPI friendly
 Doesn’t require customer data
 Is very relevant in emerging markets
R100-
R300
R150+
R50-
R120
 At high scale, a very cheap form of hot
leads & overall cost of acquisition
BUT : Historically, Media ROI has been difficult to quantify and impossible to predict results
What if we could predict what media placements would get us what volume & quality at what cost?

6. 6
Who we are and Why this presentation
Key Principles
Traditional Methods
Programmatic Approach
Wrap Up
Contents

7. What do I mean by Programmatic Approach?
 Traditional offline media planning is still similar to the approaches used
last century. Major advances in digital marketing are used as examples of
how much more modern media planning is these days but the truth is,
that science is typically applied only to online and direct channels
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_planning for example refers predominantly
to measures such as reach, cost per point, etc. which as measures have
been shown to be unreliable and only useful in the absence of more modern
data science data and techniques
 The Programmatic Approach is a modern means to planning, executing and analyzing media
campaigns using
– Modern Data Science Analysis principles
– Modern technology to enable key steps in the processes
and informed and influenced by direct and digital marketing advances in knowledge and technology

8. Advantages achieved with Programmatic Approach
Reduced costs
• Improved
predictiveness
allows better
and more
consistent
buying
decisions
Accurate
Forecasting
• Long term
media spend
planning
enabled and
aligned to
sales
operations
gearing
Effective
Monitoring
• Technology
enabled real-
time monitoring
-immediate
reactions
• Media owners
kept “honest”
Scheduling
• Technology
enabled
scheduling
improves
engagement
with media
owners
Cross channel
synergies
• Accurate
comparisons
across
channels
allows full
channel co-
ordination

9. Modern Marketing Key Principles
Plan
• Strategy
• Test and
learn
Target
• Actualise
Strategy
• Data
• Indicators
Execute
• Operations
Excellence
• Time of the
essence
• Technology
Enabled
Monitor
• Operations
Negation
• React
quickly
• Technology
Enabled
Analyse
• Clean test
results
• Build
models
• Qualify
learnings

10. 10
Who we are and Why this presentation
Key Principles
Traditional Methods
Programmatic Approach
Wrap Up
Contents

11. Traditional Media Planning & Targeting **
** taken from 2012
Outcome: 20% correlation from GRP to
responses per advert

12. Typical Result
• Real life example, nearly 50% of leads
sourced (via a TV campaign of R1.1 mil)
never even attempted
Traditional Executing
• Disconnect between
Marketing and Sales
Operations activity
• No link to other online
and offline marketing
activities
Volume
Responders 9 721
Total Calls 5 025
Contactable 3 685
Right Party Contact 3 522
Sale 689

13. Traditional Monitoring
• Typical buying spec:
• GRP
• LSM
• Age
• Gender
• TV use own tools to find appropriate links
• If unable to advertise at one place – just
replace with adverts elsewhere
• Replacing adverts is left to people who (as
expected from human nature) can forget
• No knowledge of the value of one advert to
another as long as GRP is similar
Typical Result
• Real life example, 2 436 (6%) leads were
lost and even if the difference in invoicing
regularized – still an overall loss
• Client was completely unaware that adverts
were not being played as scheduled and
corrective action below invoicing amount
Cost Leads
Adverts booked 3 935 891 40 000
Adverts played as scheduled 3 463 584 35 200
Adverts not played 472 307 4 800
Adverts played not scheduled 460 755 2 436

14. Traditional Analysis
Micro-sampling
• Traditional sources of data use thousands
to predict the behavior of millions
• For example, a study used 200 surveys
used to predict behavior of 1.6 mil
consumers
• Relevant because of the absence of useful
data for the targeted metrics
Irregular
• Census data (once every 10 years)
• Surveys slow and delayed
• Reports often months behind
• More frequent information is often
available but not used

15. How does this apply to Traditional Media Methods?
Plan
• Strategy
based on
miniscule
sampling
• Pseudo-
statistics
Target
• Targeting
based on
human
experience
and intuition
Execute
• Very
bureaucratic
• Old
fashioned
• Non tech-
enabled
Monitor
• Monitoring of
whether
adverts
flighted
unimportant
(just replace)
• 7 day delay
Analyse
• Data
weighted out
of
reasonable
use
• Gut feel
predominant

16. 16
Who we are and Why this presentation
Key Principles
Traditional Methods
Programmatic Approach
Wrap Up
Contents

17. Programmatic Approach Planning & Targeting
• Use modern statistical techniques to plan specific
tests to maximize schedule information
• Models built show excellent correlations between
predicted and actual responses
• Gen3-5 Models are able to predict daily response
volumes with 90% and stronger accuracy
• Even Gen1 models are 3 times stronger than
Traditional methods

18. Programmatic Approach: Executing
Lead Flow
Salesforce 2
Call Centre 2
Call Centre 2
Branch 2
Branch 2
Customers segment 2
ATL Media 1
ATL Media 1
Digital Partner 2
Digital Partner 2
Data Provider 2
Data Provider 2
Branch 2
Branch 2
Control Portal
Lead Generation Lead Optimisation Lead Conversion (Sales)
Branch 1
Data Provider 1
Digital Partner 1
ATL Media 1
Existing Customer DB 1
- Aggregate (all sources)
- Dedupe (unique leads)
- Enrich (append data)
- Predict (model & segment)
- Route (right salesforce)
- Measure (CPL, ROI)
- Compare (to predicted)
- Dashboard (real-time monitor)
- Insight (trends, optimise)
- Test (new leads)
Call Centre 1
Branch 1
Field-force 1
LMS
Module
End to End Management
Data
Module
data
data
data
data
data
data
Media
Module
Digital
Module
Module Module Module
Modelling
Module
Bureau Customer
Live Scoring
Module
Communication
Module
Modelling
Module
Field Agent Partner 2
Field Agent Partner 1

19. Programmatic Approach: Monitoring
Technology Enablement
• No leads lost
• Leads linked to source
• Leads tracked throughout workflow
• Problems noticed immediately
Lead Source Cost Leads generated Cost P Lead Sales Cost p Sale
TV – SABC1 R 2 600 000 21 667 R 120 5 417 R 480
TV – eTV R 833 333 4 630 R 180 1 157 R 720
Print Campaign R 350 000 1 522 R 230 380 R 920
Digital Provider 3 R 6 000 15 R 400 8 R 800
Cold Calling R 70 000 23 333 R 3 117 R 600
SMS campaign with script 5A R 1 500 000 13 636 R 110 3 409 R 440
SMS campaign with script 5B R 1 500 000 10 714 R 180 2 083 R 720
Marketing Source and Sales Operations effectiveness can be optimised
Terrible
Result
Cancel
Great Source
Extend
Switch all
SMSs to
Script 5A

20. Programmatic Approach: Analysis
• Build and rebuild the Models frequently
(every 3 months)
• Book with media owners specifically at slot
level as opposed to generic rulesets
• Continue to cherry pick based on human
expertise but restrict it to an agreed percent
of your advertising spend
• Ensure you keep assigning budget for
learning slots
• Embed technology to speed up optimization
and scenario planning and testing
Typical Results
• Real Life Example: Significant drop in cost p
lead once predictive models implemented
R 4
R 6
R 8
R 10
R 12
R 14
R 16
R 18
R 20
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Cost p Lead
Pre PA
Post PA

21. Programmatic Approach: Analysis
• Operational Planning enabled when one can daily predict accurate media volumes
• Synergy with other channels allows further marketing ROI improvements
• For example, sending SMSs to keep steady volume flow in call centre where known dips
in lead flows are known – large improvement in call centre efficiency and effectiveness

22. How the Programmatic Approach operates
Plan
• Strategy
based sound
models &
business
goals (brand
& sales)
• Experimental
design
Target
• Targeted
using
models,
cherry
picking and
learning
goals
Execute
• Technology
enables
synergy with
other online
and offline
channels
Monitor
• Monitoring
drives optimal
advertising
• Actual vs
Predictive
highlights
issues quickly
Analyse
• Models built
and rebuilt as
learning
paradigm
improved
• Creatives &
other channels
integrated

23. But what about …?
Brand &
Creative
Non Direct
Response?
• Brand strength can have an enormous
impact on customer response (we’ve
seen up to 300% increased response
rates)
• We’ve quantified that TV advertising has
a “halo” effect on other channels
• Creatives appeal to different segments …
require specific plans
• Not all “creatives” are equal
• Integration with electronic response
channels extremely indicative of outcome
• 87% of website spikes were linked to
TV adverts flighted within minutes of
those spikes
• Less data means less accuracy, but even
in its worst scenarios, the Programmatic
Approach has much more data than
Traditional methods

24. 24
Who we are and Why this presentation
Key Principles
Traditional Methods
Programmatic Approach
Wrap Up
Contents

25. Wrap up
• The programmatic approach to offline Media has led to significant
advantages to those who have adopted it:
• Reduced costs of acquisition
• Improved effectiveness and efficiency of operations (getting the
most bang for marketing buck)
• Predictiveness both on micro (p day) and macro (12 months
planning) levels that allow for better business planning
• Synergy across marketing channels allowing for true integrated
marketing
• Links offline to online
• Links sales and brand & creatives
• The Programmatic Approach can be achieved by applying modern marketing principles and
modern technologies