The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan, and Germany. It reports that the GDP growth forecast for Europe in 2013 decreased slightly to 0.1%, while forecasts improved for the US and Japan. The German business climate index rose in December as companies were less pessimistic about the future despite viewing their current situation as somewhat worse. Unemployment in the EU remained high at 10.7% in January 2013.
2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – January 2013
Europe:
• Consensus January GDP forecast for WE decreased from 0,2% to 0,1% for 2013. Forecast for
2014 is on 1,2%.
• While the EU industrial confidence improved slightly in December, the consumer confidence
indicator decreased somewhat.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies
assessed their current business situation as somewhat less favorable they were considerable
less pessimistic about future business developments.
• The Euro area’s return to recession in Q4 2011 may well have extended through to end 2012.
Consensus predicts only a muted 2014 recovery in GDP after the declines in 2012 and 2013.
US:
• Consensus January GDP forecast for the US improved from 1,9% to 2,0% for 2013. Forecast
for 2014 is 2,8%
• The ‘fiscal cliff’ was averted as a late deal on taxes was reached. However, negotiations over
Federal spending cuts and the debt ceiling are postponed to February-March, extending
uncertainty over the outlook. Business activity remains fragile four years after the 2008 financial
crisis.
Japan:
• The January GDP growth forecast for Japan improved from 0,6% to 0,7% for 2013. Forecast for
2014 is 1,0%.
• Latest data show few signs of improvement in the Japanese economy.
2 | Economic Indicators |
4. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
'07Q1
06Q1
'10 Q1
'08 Q1
'09 Q1
'11 Q1
12 Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
4 | Economic Indicators |
5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
12 Q1
'06Q1
'07Q1
'09 Q1
'08 Q1
'10 Q1
'11 Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
5 | Economic Indicators |
6. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.3
2.5
% 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
12/1
'08/1
'09/1
'10/1
'11/1
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
Source: Eurostat Jan 13
6 | Economic Indicators |
7. Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
5,5
5,0
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0 Dec 12; 2,2
2,5
2,0 Eurozone inflation
1,5
FED rate Jan 13; 0,75
1,0
0,5 ECB short-term rate Jan 13; 0,25
0,0
-0,5
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
July 08
Jul.09
Jul.10
July 11
Jul.12
Jul.13
Source: ECB, FED Jan 13
7 | Economic Indicators |
8. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
11
10.7
10
9
8
7
6
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
Source: Eurostat Jan 13
8 | Economic Indicators |
9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in December.
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
Jan 07
Jan 11
Jan 06
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 12
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
Source: Eurostat Jan 13
9 | Economic Indicators |
10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 decreased slightly in December.
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
Source: Eurostat Jan 13
10 | Economic Indicators |
11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
85
80
75
%
70
65
60
04Q1
05Q1
06Q1
07Q1
08Q1
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
Source: Eurostat Nov 12
11 | Economic Indicators |
13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
The Ifo World Economic climate worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 12
13 | Economic Indicators |
14. Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate
The economic climate for Western Europe worsened again in the
4th quarter 2012.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 12
14 | Economic Indicators |
15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 12
15 | Economic Indicators |
16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast.
Source: IFO Jan 13
16 | Economic Indicators |
17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Jan 13
17 | Economic Indicators |
18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Jan 13
18 | Economic Indicators |
19. Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Business situation 6 months expectations
125 115
120 110
115 105
110 100
105
95
100
95 90
90 85
85 80
80 75
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies assessed
their current business situation as somewhat less favorable than last month, they were
considerably less pessimistic about future business developments. German companies are more
confident about the future.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
Source: IFO Jan 13
19 | Economic Indicators |
20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies assessed
their current business situation as somewhat less favorable than last month, they were
considerably less pessimistic about future business developments. German companies are more
confident about the future.
Source: IFO Jan 13
20 | Economic Indicators |
21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The business climate within the printing industry improved slightly from -9 to -7 in December.
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a
monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Jan 13, bundesverband druck und medien
21 | Economic Indicators |
22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Business Development at German Printers – December 12:
The assessment of the current business situation in the
printing industry improved from +12%points in November to now
+21%, 9%points better than in the same month of last year.
The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – remained negative with -7%, 2% points up from
-9% in November.
The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained
negative for the 4th month in succession, decreasing again from -
28% to -32%points.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a
monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Jan 13, bundesverband druck und medien
22 | Economic Indicators |
24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,
rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015
Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow
2% in 2015
Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between
2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to
37%
Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in
internet display over the next three years
Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total
in 2015
Source: Zenith 12/12
24 | Economic Indicators |
25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
At current prices
Source: Zenith 12/12
25 | Economic Indicators |