Economic indicators December 2012 - part 1

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Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview December 2012

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Economic indicators December 2012 - part 1

  1. 1. Economic Indicators Last update 18.01.20131 | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]
  2. 2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – January 2013 Europe: • Consensus January GDP forecast for WE decreased from 0,2% to 0,1% for 2013. Forecast for 2014 is on 1,2%. • While the EU industrial confidence improved slightly in December, the consumer confidence indicator decreased somewhat. • The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies assessed their current business situation as somewhat less favorable they were considerable less pessimistic about future business developments. • The Euro area’s return to recession in Q4 2011 may well have extended through to end 2012. Consensus predicts only a muted 2014 recovery in GDP after the declines in 2012 and 2013. US: • Consensus January GDP forecast for the US improved from 1,9% to 2,0% for 2013. Forecast for 2014 is 2,8% • The ‘fiscal cliff’ was averted as a late deal on taxes was reached. However, negotiations over Federal spending cuts and the debt ceiling are postponed to February-March, extending uncertainty over the outlook. Business activity remains fragile four years after the 2008 financial crisis. Japan: • The January GDP growth forecast for Japan improved from 0,6% to 0,7% for 2013. Forecast for 2014 is 1,0%. • Latest data show few signs of improvement in the Japanese economy.2 | Economic Indicators |
  3. 3. Eurostat Data3 | Economic Indicators |
  4. 4. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 07Q1 06Q1 10 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year Source: Eurostat Nov 124 | Economic Indicators |
  5. 5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 12 Q1 06Q1 07Q1 09 Q1 08 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter Source: Eurostat Nov 125 | Economic Indicators |
  6. 6. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.3 2.5 % 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 12/1 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1 The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States. Source: Eurostat Jan 136 | Economic Indicators |
  7. 7. Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 Dec 12; 2,2 2,5 2,0 Eurozone inflation 1,5 FED rate Jan 13; 0,75 1,0 0,5 ECB short-term rate Jan 13; 0,25 0,0 -0,5 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 July 08 Jul.09 Jul.10 July 11 Jul.12 Jul.13 Source: ECB, FED Jan 137 | Economic Indicators |
  8. 8. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate 11 10.7 10 9 8 7 6 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries Source: Eurostat Jan 138 | Economic Indicators |
  9. 9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in December. 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 Jan 07 Jan 11 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 12 The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks. Source: Eurostat Jan 139 | Economic Indicators |
  10. 10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU Consumer Confidence within EU 27 decreased slightly in December. 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases. Source: Eurostat Jan 1310 | Economic Indicators |
  11. 11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27 85 80 75 % 70 65 60 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry. Source: Eurostat Nov 1211 | Economic Indicators |
  12. 12. Ifo Data12 | Economic Indicators |
  13. 13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate The Ifo World Economic climate worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Nov 1213 | Economic Indicators |
  14. 14. Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate The economic climate for Western Europe worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012. This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Nov 1214 | Economic Indicators |
  15. 15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Nov 1215 | Economic Indicators |
  16. 16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast. Source: IFO Jan 1316 | Economic Indicators |
  17. 17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany Source: IFO Jan 1317 | Economic Indicators |
  18. 18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs € Source: IFO Jan 1318 | Economic Indicators |
  19. 19. Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations Business situation 6 months expectations 125 115 120 110 115 105 110 100 105 95 100 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies assessed their current business situation as somewhat less favorable than last month, they were considerably less pessimistic about future business developments. German companies are more confident about the future. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed. Source: IFO Jan 1319 | Economic Indicators |
  20. 20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies assessed their current business situation as somewhat less favorable than last month, they were considerably less pessimistic about future business developments. German companies are more confident about the future. Source: IFO Jan 1320 | Economic Indicators |
  21. 21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry The business climate within the printing industry improved slightly from -9 to -7 in December. 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Jan 13, bundesverband druck und medien21 | Economic Indicators |
  22. 22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry Business Development at German Printers – December 12:  The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry improved from +12%points in November to now +21%, 9%points better than in the same month of last year.  The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – remained negative with -7%, 2% points up from -9% in November.  The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained negative for the 4th month in succession, decreasing again from - 28% to -32%points. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Jan 13, bundesverband druck und medien22 | Economic Indicators |
  23. 23. Zenith Data23 | Economic Indicators |
  24. 24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release  Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years, rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015  Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow 2% in 2015  Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between 2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to 37%  Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in internet display over the next three years  Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total in 2015 Source: Zenith 12/1224 | Economic Indicators |
  25. 25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release At current prices Source: Zenith 12/1225 | Economic Indicators |
  26. 26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release Source: Zenith 12/1226 | Economic Indicators |

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