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2012
  th,



                                  Weekly Markets
26


  n                                Perspectives
November




           For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
Weekly Summary
Risk assets rebounded last week. Global stocks         Portugal passed the sixth review of its
markets had their best weekly gains in many            programme. The Troika said that downside risks
months, reflecting increased optimism after            to growth were significant. Given this economic
president Obama expressed confidence on a fiscal       backdrop, will Portugal be able to meet its fiscal
cliff agreement with Congress. However, the road       targets of 5% of GDP this year and 4.5% of GDP in
to a fiscal compromise is still expected to be         2013?
bumpy.
                                                       The EU Summit on a spending plan for the years
The Euro-zone stock markets had to face two            2014-2020 showed strong differences in opinion
negative events: the downgrade of France and           and no agreement.
further delay in the release of the loans to Greece.
                                                       In China, the November HSBC “flash”
Moody’s has downgraded France from Aaa to Aa1          manufacturing PMI rose to a 13-month high. In
(outlook remains Negative) due to a sustained loss     Europe, the November “flash” PMIs for France,
of competitiveness and the uncertain fiscal outlook.   Germany and the euro area seem to point to a
The market reaction has been fairly modest.            Euro-zone contraction in Q4.

The Eurogroup was unable to reach a consensus          The Japanese election is scheduled for December
last Tuesday on Greece. A new meeting will be held     16th. The pronouncements of the LDP leader are
today to decide in which conditions will be released   influencing the market as they are seen as the
the next bailout tranche to Greece.                    policies of the future prime minister of Japan.
Portugal passes sixth review of its programme
•    The statement by the European Commission,          reforms are proceeding;
     ECB, and IMF on the sixth review mission to        • Rising unemployment weighs on households’
     Portugal was published last week;                      incomes, while the recession in the euro area is
•    Portugal has passed the 6th quarterly review of        beginning to bear on exports dynamics;
     its rescue programme. The country will receive     • The statement mentions that downside risks to
     the next €2.5bn tranche of its loan. With this,        growth are significant. Real GDP in 2013 is
     Portugal will have received 87% of its €78bn           expected to decline by 1%, but should gradually
     rescue loan;                                           return to positive quarterly growth rates during
•    The programme is considered to be broadly on           the year. Is this projection too optimistic?
     track;                                             • A expenditure review in underway by the
•    According to the statement, external and fiscal        Portuguese government. Results will be discussed
     adjustment continue to advance, and structural         during the seventh review (February 2013).
                                                       Current Account Balance                            20112012F   2013F
                                                       IMF (WEO October 2012)                            -6.4%-2.9%   -1.7%
                                                       EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014   -9.0%-6.7%   -4.1%
                                                       Unemployment Rate                                  20112012F   2013F
                                                       IMF (WEO October 2012)                            12.7%15.5%   16.0%
                                                       EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014   12.1%13.4%   13.3%
                                                       Government Budget Deficit Target                   20112012F   2013F
                                                       6th Review Mission                                     5.0%    4.5%
                                                       EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014   5.9% 4.5%    3.0%
Source: IMF; Bank of Portugal                          Source: Bank of Portugal, IMF
BoP and INE releases monthly                                                        IFO rebounds in November
economic indicators                                                             •        The overall German business climate indicator
•       In October 2012, the monthly coincident                                          rose from 100 in October to 101.4 in
        indicators for the y/y evolution of economic                                     November;
        activity and private consumption, calculated by •                                The rise was unexpected. However, the index
        the Bank of Portugal, increased compared to the                                  remains at its second lowest level since
        previous month (see chart);                                                      February 2010;
•       However, the economic climate indicator, •                                       It is probably too soon to conclude that
        released by INE (the statistical office of Portugal)                             Germany is going through a renewed upturn,
        fell in September and October, interrupting the                                  which would be positive for the peripheral
        previous tenuous ascending path.                                                 economy.
                BoP Monthly Economic Indicators                                              Ifo Business Climate Indicator and German GDP
    6                                                                           115                                                                              5%

    4
                                                                                105                                                                     0.9% 1%
    2                                                  Activity Coincident
                                                       Indicator - Monthly          95                                                                           -3%
    0                                                                                                                                                    93.2
                                            -1.7
-2                                                     Private Consumption
                                                       Coincident Indicator -       85                                                                           -7%
-4                                                     Monthly

-6                                              -4.5                                75                                                                           -11%
                                                                                      1999      2001      2003      2005       2007      2009    2011     2013
-8
                                                                                          Ifo Business Expectations (Adv. 3 mths, LHS)     German GDP (% y/y, RHS)
  2000 2002 2004 2006      2008   2010   2012
Source: Bank of Portugal                                                        Source: Ifo Institute; Eurostat
Moody’s downgrades France Euro-zone recession keeps going…
•   Moody’s put France on negative outlook in                             •        The Euro-zone “flash” composite PMI index
    February and S&P downgraded it in January.                                     increased slightly in November from 45.7 to 45.8
    France is now rated Aa1 by Moody’s. However                                    (see chart);
    bond yields remain very low (see chart);                              •        The pick-up in the composite index reflects an
•   The downgrade can cut the lending capacity of                                  increase in the manufacturing index offsetting a
    the EFSF and ESM;                                                              fall in the service index. The service index fell to a
•   It can also strain the relationship between                                    40-month low, pointing to the negative effects of
    Germany and France;                                                            the austerity and to a weakening labour market;
•   Will France be pushed towards more austerity                          •        The German composite index increased from 47.7
    measures to reduce its budget deficit to 3% of                                 to 47.9, while the French index rose from 43.5 to
    GDP next year?                                                                 44.6;
                10-Yr Government Bond Yield                                               Composite PMI and Euro-zone GDP
4.0%                                                               4.0%
                                                                              65                                                                  1.5%
                                                                                                                                                  1.0%
3.5%                                                               3.5%       60
                                                                                                                                                  0.5%
3.0%                                                               3.0%       55                                                      -0.10%      0.0%
                                                                                                                                                  -0.5%
2.5%                                                                          50
                                                           2.2% 2.5%                                                                              -1.0%
                                                                              45                                                        45.8      -1.5%
2.0%                                                               2.0%
                                                                                                                                                  -2.0%
                    Germany                                1.4%               40
1.5%                                                               1.5%                                                                           -2.5%
                    France
                                                                              35                                                                  -3.0%
1.0%                                                               1.0%            2005         2007            2009     2011           2013
   Jan-10   Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12   Jul-12   Dec-12                          Composite PMI (LHS)          Euro-zone GDP (q/q, RHS)
Source: Bloomberg                                                             Source: Markit and Eurostat
Spanish Banks NPLs at 10.71% Catalonia went to the polls
•   NPLs increased by €3.45bn to €182bn in           •     Artur Mas called the election after Madrid
    September (+2% m/m), reflecting a weak                 refused more fiscal autonomy for Catalonia;
    economy, the Real Estate sector adjustment and   •     Catalan people are increasingly in favour of
    high unemployment levels;                              independence;
•   Private deposits fell 7.3% y/y (+1.4% m/m);      •     Catalonia is the most indebted of the regions (see
•   Loans to the private resident sector decreased         chart);
    4.9% y/y. Total loans declined 2.2% y/y;         •     The economic fundamentals remain weak in
•   Sovereign debt holdings increased 46% y/y and          Spain. The country is still expected to request
    5% m/m (to 6.9% of total assets). ECB funding          support from the euro area. Pressure on Spain is
    stood at €378bn at the end of September.               likely to mount in 2013 in light of its gross bond
                                                           issuance (€90bn).
                                                                                         Regional Government Debt
                                                                                                                      (% of region's GDP)
                                                         25%                                                                                                             22%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               21%
                                                         20%                                    18%                               18%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        16%
                                                         15%                                                                                                                                      13% 12%
                                                                                                                                                                                    12%                                        12%
                                                               11% 11% 10%                                            11%                              10%                                                                                        11%
                                                                                                           9%                                                                                                         9%
                                                         10%

                                                          5%

                                                          0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Madrid
                                                                                                           canarias




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Navarra
                                                                                                                                                                                    Extremadura
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Galicia




                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Murcia
                                                                Andalucia




                                                                                                Baleares
                                                                            Aragon




                                                                                                                                                       Castilla y Leon
                                                                                                                      Cantabria
                                                                                                                                  Castilla-La Mancha




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Pais Vasco
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Valencia
                                                                                     Asturias




                                                                                                                                                                         Cataluna




                                                                                                                                                                                                            La Roja
Source: Bank of Spain                                    Source: Bank of Spain
US: NAHB Housing Market Index is now at its highest level
since May 2006 – Housing continues to strengthen
•           Housing data released last week (housing starts,                                                              •   Initial jobless claims dropped 41,000 to 410,000
            building permits, existing home sales and NAHB                                                                    during the week ending November 17th. The US
            housing market index) continues to suggest a                                                                      Department of Labor disclosed that the elevated
            recovery in the US housing market;                                                                                claims readings from the past two weeks were
•           November consumer sentiment was revised                                                                           distorted by Hurricane Sandy;
            down in the final estimate. The decline was likely                                                            •   The flash estimate of the US Markit
            explained by weakness in the stock market in                                                                      manufacturing PMI in November rose to a five-
            recent weeks;                                                                                                     month high 52.4 from 51.3 in October.
                                                                                                                                                   460
            NAHB Index vs. US Existing Home Sales                                       85       U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence                                  Initial Jobless Claims (000s)
50                                                                                5.5
                                                                                                                                            82.7   440
                                                                         41
                                                                                        80
40                                                                                5.0
                                                                                                                                                   420
                                                                                        75                                                                                                           410
30                                                                       4.79 4.5
                                                                                                                                                   400
                                                                                        70
20                                                                                4.0                                                              380
                                                                                        65
10                                                                                3.5                                                              360
                                                                                        60

0                                                                                 3.0 55                                                           340
     2007         2008          2009          2010         2011         2012

             NAHB Index (LHS)          Existing Home Sales (mn annualized, RHS)         50                                                         320
Source: National Association of Home Builders;                                            2007      2008   2009    2010       2011   2012                Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Association of Realtors                                                         Source: U. of Michigan Research Center                          Source: US Department of Labor
Cyprus close to EU/IMF bailout                              China: PMI supports steady
      The rescue could amount to around €17bn
•
      (c.100% of Cyprus’s GDP), of which €10bn will be      recovery
      to refinance banks;                                   •    The November HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
•     Banks’ exposure to Greece (160% of GDP) led to             rose to a 13-month high of 50.4 (49.5 in
      massive losses, forcing Cyprus to ask Russia for a         October), moving above the 50 threshold for
      €2.5bn loan late last year;                                the first time since October 2011 (see chart);
•     Cyprus requested a bailout in June and has been       •    The output index reached a 13-month high.
      in negotiations with the Troika since November             New export orders rose above 50 for the first
      9th;                                                       time since April 2012;
•     The European Commission sees the country’s            •    The positive signs seen in the September and
      deficit at 5.7% of GDP next year and the debt              October activity data seem to have been
      ratio reaching 96.7%.                                      sustained into November.
             Cyprus Real GDP growth (y/y)
8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%
                                   -2.7%          -2.2%
-4%
   2000     2002    2004   2006   2008     2010   2012
Source: Bloomberg                                          Source: Bloomberg
Japan: Will the upcoming                                            elections                        change           the
macroeconomic outcome ?
•   Since the lower house dissolution, the leader of      •   The new administration in Japan will probably
    the LDP (the largest opposition party) has spoken         be aggressive on monetary policy, pushing for a
    about reform the BOJ monetary policy;                     higher inflation target and for bond buying by
•   The LDP will probably win a majority or near-             BOJ;
    majority in the lower house. Nevertheless, the        • LDP’s “Revitalization Plan for Japan’s Economy”
    LDP will need a coalition partner in order to pass        includes measures in the tax system and in the
    legislation through the upper house;                      energy sector (e.g. overcome electricity-supply
•   There´s little clarity on fiscal policy because the       constraints).
    LDP is split. There’s a group calling for more                    Japan: Government Debt vs.
    spending (higher public investment) and a group        210%
                                                                           Government Budget              10%

    concerned about fiscal deficit and government         200%
                                                                                                                          8%
    debt. However, an expansionary budget is likely in    190%
                                                                                                                          6%
    the near term;                                        180%

•   Increased pressure on the BOJ to buy JGBs;            170%                                                            4%
•   The LDP’s economic policies intends to end yen        160%
                                                                                                                          2%
    appreciation and “the creation of a framework for     150%

    stronger collaboration between the government         140%                                                            0%
                                                                   2003   2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
    and BoJ and the implementation of bold                                  Government Debt as % of GDP (LHS)
    monetary easing, including revisions to the BoJ                         Government Budget Deficit as % of GDP (RHS)
    Law”;                                                 Source: Central Intelligence Agency; Bloomberg
PSI20 weekly review
•   Sonae Indústria (SONI PL) fell 5.4%, the most in the
    PSI20. The company reported 3rd quarter 2012 results on
    November 16th. Although Sonae Indústria is now more
    efficient after the restructuring done over last years, its
    strong exposure to macro uncertainty in Europe and high
    financial leverage remain significant concerns for
    investors;
•   Jerónimo Martins (JMT PL) rose 6.6% to €14.5. The
    company’s Chairman said that Jerónimo Martins wants
    to have about 30 to 40 stores in Colombia next year.
    More details could be announced at its upcoming
    Investor’s Day in Lisbon on December 11st;
•   Galp (GALP PL)´s CEO stated that he expects exports to
    reach €4.2bn in FY12. With potencial upside to resources
    estimates from both Mozambique and Brazil, Galp could
    deliver one of the best production and earnings growth
    rates in the European oil and gas sector. The stock was up
    5.5% last week;
•   Banco Espirito Santo (BES PL) rose 3.7% over the week.
    The bank announced a R$ 100mn capital increase for its
    Brazilian unit (80% BES and 20% Bradesco).                    Source: Bloomberg
Q3 2012 Mota-Engil Results: Net profit increase 11% y/y to
€7mn
•      Mota-Engil (EGL PL) reported Q3 2012 results. Revenues reached €675mn, up 16% y/y and 5% above
       consensus, reflecting the good performance of the international unit (more than compensating the
       weakness of the domestic unit);
•      Q3 2012 EBITDA rose 9% y/y to €83mn, a 3% beat vs. consensus. EBIT stood at €53mn, up 6% y/y. Net
       profit was €7mn, which compares to €11mn from consensus. Higher minorities reflect the strong
       performance of the Angolan unit. Net debt deceased 1% q/q;
•      The order book fell 6% q/q;
•      The re-negotiation of the Portuguese shadow tolls’ remuneration (that are currently paid by availability)
       is ongoing;
•      The company continues to diversify its revenue sources;
•      Regarding the privatization of the Portuguese Airport Operator (ANA), Mota-Engil’s stake in the
       consortium should be small.
€ thousand                  Q3 2011   Q2 2012   Q3 2012   Change % Q/Q Change % Y/Y
Turnover                    582,121   530,637   675,009            27%         16%
EBITDA                       75,606    72,417    82,693            14%           9%
EBIT                         50,457    48,103    53,336            11%           6%
Net Income                   16,207    20,564    23,220           13%          43%
Non Controlling Interests     9,945     6,766    16,257
Net profit to the Group       6,262    13,798     6,963           -50%         11%
    Source: Company data
Last week’s market highlights
                                                                             Hewlett Packard share price ($)
•   Hewlett-Packard (HPQ US) fell 3.0% over the week. The      50

                                                               45
    company reported Q4 FY12 of $1.16, ahead of consensus      40
    of $1.14. However, the company’s outlook for next          35

    quarter was disappointing, although it maintained its      30

                                                               25
    FY13 outlook. Sentiment and expectations around the        20

    stock continue to be remarkably depressed. Hewlett-        15                                                                                12.46

    Packard accused Autonomy, the software company it          10
                                                                Jan-11     Apr-11     Jul-11   Oct-11    Jan-12   Apr-12    Jul-12   Oct-12
                                                               4.5
    bought last year, of several falsehoods that contributed                            Nokia share price (€)
                                                               4.0
    to a $8.8bn writedown;                                     3.5

•   Nokia (NOK1V FH) surged 30.5%. The company disclosed       3.0
                                                                                                                                        €2.754
    that it received reports that its Lumia 920 model had      2.5


    sold out in Germany. Nokia still has a long way to go to   2.0


    reach sustainable profitability. Nevertheless, investor    1.5

                                                               1.0
    sentiment on Nokia shares and on the new Windows 8           Dec- 11     Feb-12        Apr-12       Jun-12     Aug-12      Oct-12       Dec- 12


    Nokia Lumia 920/820 phones were overly negative;           3.5
                                                                                      Gamesa Share price (€)
•   Gamesa (GAM SM) rose 9.9% to €1.703. Gamesa India          3.0


                                                               2.5
    announced that it will develop 47.6MW wind farm in
                                                               2.0
    Maharashtra. The company presented last October its        1.5
                                                                                                                                         1.703



    2012-15 business plan. Gamesa targets a €100mn fixed       1.0

    cost reduction and will implement several restructuring    0.5

    moves.                                                       Jan-12      Mar- 12

                                                               Source: Company data
                                                                                          May-12        Jul-12     Sep-12      Nov-12
What we are watching this week:
                                               CALENDAR - Event                                                    Date    Hour (GMT) Survey   Prior
•   Euro-zone finance ministers and Troika     BOJ Minutes of Oct 30 monetary policy meeting                      26-Nov     23:50     n.a.     n.a.
                                               Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa speech                                26-Nov      n.a.     n.a.     n.a.
    representatives will attempt to reach an   Euro-Zone Finance Ministers meet on Greek Debt                     26-Nov     11:30     n.a.     n.a.
                                               GfK Consumer Confidence Survey ,Germany                            26-Nov     12:00     6.2      6.3
    agreement on Greece matters today.         FED Chairman Bernanke gives brief opening remarks at College Fed   27-Nov     13:30     n.a.    n.a.
    Will a deal be announced on a reshuffle    Hungary monetary policy decision
                                               Portugal to hold final vote on 2013 Budget
                                                                                                                  27-Nov
                                                                                                                  27-Nov
                                                                                                                              n.a.
                                                                                                                              n.a.
                                                                                                                                       n.a.
                                                                                                                                       n.a.
                                                                                                                                               n.a.
                                                                                                                                               n.a.
                                               Q3 Real GDP details (y/y), UK                                      27-Nov     09:30    0.0%     0.0%
    of the Greek bailout programme? Will       OECD November Economic Outlook, Euro-Zone                          27-Nov     10:00     n.a.    n.a.
                                               Durable Goods Orders, US                                           27-Nov     13:30    -0.8%    9.9%
    some debt relief be offered to Greece?     Richmond Fed Manufact. Index ,US                                   27-Nov     15:00     n.a.     -7

    The discussion will start at 11:30 GMT;    Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, US (Nov)
                                               Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (y/y) ,Euro-Zone
                                                                                                                  27-Nov
                                                                                                                  28-Nov
                                                                                                                             15:00
                                                                                                                             09:00
                                                                                                                                       73.0
                                                                                                                                      2.8%
                                                                                                                                               72.2
                                                                                                                                               2.7%
•   On Wednesday, the ECB will release its     New Home Sales, US
                                               Federal Reserve Beige Book, US
                                                                                                                  28-Nov
                                                                                                                  28-Nov
                                                                                                                             15:00
                                                                                                                             19:00
                                                                                                                                      388K
                                                                                                                                       n.a.
                                                                                                                                               389K
                                                                                                                                                n.a.
    data on monetary developments in the       Brazil Copom monetary policy decision                              28-Nov      n.a.    7.25%    7.25%
                                               Unemployment Change (000's), Germany                               29-Nov     08:55     16K      20K
    Euro-zone for October;                     Unemployment Rate, Germany                                         29-Nov     08:55    6.9%     6.9%
                                               Business Climate Indicator, Euro-Zone                              29-Nov     10:00    -1.60    -1.62
•   There will be various inflation figures    Euro-Zone Economic Confidence, Euro-Zone                           29-Nov     10:00     84.5     84.5
                                               Q3 Real GDP (revision) QoQ (Annualized), US                        29-Nov     13:30    2.8%     2.0%
    for November later in the week             Initial Jobless Claims, US                                         29-Nov     13:30    390K     410K
                                               Continuing Claims, US                                              29-Nov     13:30    3321K    3337K
    (Germany, Spain, Italy, Euro-zone);        Consumer Spending (y/y), France                                    30-Nov     07:45    -0.5%     -0.3%
•   In the US, the durable goods report for    Consumer Confidence, Portugal
                                               Economic Climate Indicator, Portugal
                                                                                                                  30-Nov
                                                                                                                  30-Nov
                                                                                                                             10:00
                                                                                                                             10:00
                                                                                                                                       n.a.
                                                                                                                                       n.a.
                                                                                                                                                -55.3
                                                                                                                                                 -4.6
    October will be disclosed Tuesday;         Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate
                                               Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (y/y)
                                                                                                                  30-Nov
                                                                                                                  30-Nov
                                                                                                                             10:00
                                                                                                                             10:00
                                                                                                                                      11.7%
                                                                                                                                      2.4%
                                                                                                                                                11.6%
                                                                                                                                                2.5%
•   The Conference Board measure of            Japan nationwide CPI (Oct)
                                               Industrial Production (m/m), Portugal
                                                                                                                  30-Nov
                                                                                                                  30-Nov
                                                                                                                              n.a.
                                                                                                                             11:00
                                                                                                                                       n.a.
                                                                                                                                       n.a.
                                                                                                                                                 n.a.
                                                                                                                                               -12.0%
    consumer confidence (Tuesday) and the      Japan industrial production (prelim. Oct)                          30-Nov      n.a.     n.a.      n.a.
                                               Retail Sales (m/m), Portugal                                       30-Nov     11:00     n.a.     -4.1%
    October personal and spending report       GDP (IBGE) y/y ,Brazil                                             30-Nov     11:00    1.9%      0.5%
                                               Gross Domestic Product y/y, Canada                                 30-Nov     13:30    1.2%      1.2%
    (Friday) should also be watched closely;   Personal Income, US (Oct)                                          30-Nov     13:30    0.2%      0.4%
                                               Personal Spending, US (Oct)                                        30-Nov     13:30    0.1%      0.8%
•   Q3 2012 real GDP data for Switzerland      Chicago Purchasing Manager, US                                     30-Nov     14:45     51.0      49.9
                                               China manufacturing PMI (Nov)                                      1-Dec       n.a.     n.a.     50.2
    and Sweden are due Thursday.               Korea trade balance (Nov)                                          1-Dec       n.a.     n.a.     n.a.
Next Week Preview: Economics
                                                                          US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence
•   The Conference Board Consumer Confidence for            120
    November is due Tuesday (November 27th). The            100
    fall in gasoline prices, the recent pick-up in job       80

    growth and the recovery in the housing market            60

    should continue to support consumer sentiment.           40

    However, the fall in equity prices at the beginning      20

    of the month and fiscal cliff uncertainty could            0
                                                                   2002            2004             2006             2008              2010            2012
    have a negative effect;
•   The latest orders data from public homebuilders
    suggest that US housing market continues to
    recover. October’s new home sales will be
    released      Wednesday       (November       28th).
    Nonetheless, Hurricane Sandy could have had
    some impact;
•   Brazil Q3 2012 Real GDP will be released Friday.        2.0%                                   Brazil Real GDP (q/q)
    Real GDP growth is expected to have accelerated.
                                                                       1.3%
    If confirmed, the central bank will probably stop                          0.9%      1.0%
                                                                                                   0.8%

    cutting rates. Interest rates have been cut by                                                          0.6%
                                                                                                                                                0.4%

    525bp since mid-2011. Both monetary and fiscal                                                                            0.1%      0.1%



    policies seems to be expansionary, at the                                                                        -0.2%

                                                           Mar-10     Jun-10   Sep-10   Dec- 10   Mar- 11   Jun-11   Sep-11   Dec-11   Mar-12   Jun-12   Sep-12   Dec- 12
    moment.                                                        Source: Bloomberg
Next Week Preview: Eurogroup meeting and Portugal earnings season
The Eurogroup meets again                               Portugal: This week’s results
today
•   The Eurogroup and the IMF were not able to          •   Soares da Costa (SCOAE PL) will report its Q3
    find an agreement to finish the Greek                   2012 results on November 29th (before market
    programme review and proceed to the payment             open). A poor performance is expected for the
    of the next financing tranche;                          domestic market. However, investor should focus
•   Official lenders are reported to be considering a       on the performance of the Angolan and US units;
    debt buyback program, a cut on interest rates       •   Banif (BNF PL) will disclose Q3 2012 earnings on
    charged on Greek loans (or even allow for a             November 30th. B/S deleverage, assets disposals
    grace period), and to lengthen maturities;              and restructuring costs should penalize the bank’s
•   According to press reports, the Eurogroup is            results. The Bank recapitalization plan should
    working on ways to bring down the debt to GDP           remain the investors’ main focus;
    ratio more aggressively;                            •   Teixeira Duarte (TDSA PL) is expected to
•   However, European member states still oppose            announce Q3 2012 results on November 30th. A
    outright haircuts on Greek loans;                       weak performance in the domestic unit should
•   An agreement at today’s meeting would allow             reflect the depressed market environment.
    the payment of the Q3 2012 (€31.3bn), the Q4            International markets (particularly Brazil) should
    2012 (€5bn) and probably also the Q1 2012               continue growing. Retail and the Hotels unit
    (€8.3bn) financing tranches, totaling €44bn.            should show positive signs.
Charts we are watching (I)
•    Glencore (GLEN LN)’s takeover of Xstrata (XTA LN)                   Glencore and Xstrata share prices
                                                              130                                                                      140
     got the go-ahead from both sets of shareholders last
                                                              120                                                      Glencore        130
     Tuesday. This deal was only possible after Glencore                                                               Xstrata         120
     proposed a revised offer of 3.05 new shares for          110
                                                                                                                                       110
     every Xstrata share, up from 2.8. Moreover, Europe’s     100
     antitrust regulator announced more modest than                                                                                    100
                                                               90
     expected conditions to clear the deal. Glencore must                                                                              90

     now secure a final approval from China and South          80                                                                      80
                                                                        Dec. 31, 2011 = 100
     African authorities. The Glencore Xstrata seems to        70                                                                      70
     be an attractive story from an EPS momentum                Jan-12
                                                             Source: Bloomberg
                                                                                  Apr-12           Jul-12         Oct-12

     (commodity mix, self-help) and growth point of view.      8                   Banco Popular Share Price (€)
                                                               7
•    Banco Popular (POP SM)’s EGM recently approved a
                                                               6
     €2.5bn rights issue to meet capital needs from Oliver
                                                               5
     Wyman’s stress test. The rights will trade until
     November 28th, and the new shares will start trading      4

     on December 6th. Once completed, the bank is              3

     expected to have confortable capital ratios. The          2

     stock is down c.70% YTD. Given the weak domestic          1                                                                       0.55
     economy backdrop, will its business model allow the       0
                                                                   00   01   02    03   04    05   06   07   08   09    10   11   12
     bank to achieve higher ROEs in the mid-term?            Source: Bloomberg
Charts we are watching (II)
•    Zon (ZON PL) and Sonaecom (SNC PL) rose 5.3% and                                   ZON and Sonaecom Share Prices
                                                                         130
     4.3%, respectively over the last week. Both stocks
     outperformed the Portuguese Stock Market Index 120 Dec. 31, 2011 = 100
     PSI20. ANACOM, the Portuguese telecom regulator,
     announced that it intends to release the regulation on 110
     fibre until the end of the year. Investors seem to remain 100
     focused on a possible M&A deal between the two
     companies and the meaningful impact that it should 90                                  ZON
                                                                                            Sonaecom
     bring to both. Zon and Sonaecom seem to have a strong                 80
     fit. A deal would allow significant cost synergies and                  Jan-12      Mar-12    May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12
                                                                           Source: Bloomberg
     create a strong integrated player to compete with
     Portugal Telecom.                             JPY/USD (JPY per 1 USD) (RHS)       Topix vs. JPY/USD exchange rate
                                                                           880                             Topix Stock Market Index       84
•    The Topix stock market index showed again strong gains                                                (LHS)                          83
     on a weaker yen and easing expectations. Japanese                     840                             JPY/USD (JPY per 1 USD)        82
                                                                                                           (RHS)
     stocks were supported by the LDP election manifesto                   800                                                            81
     (released on November 21st), that included significant                                                                               80

     monetary easing, a 2% inflation target, and more than                 760                                                            79

     3% nominal GDP growth. At the monetary policy                         720
                                                                                                                                          78

     meeting on November 20th, the BOJ Policy Board voted                                                                                 77
                                                                           680                                                            76
     unanimously to maintain the current policy rate and to                  Jan-12      Mar-12   May-12     Jul-12    Sep-12    Nov-12
     keep the size of the Asset Purchase Programme.                         Source: Bloomberg
Disclosure Section
This research report is based on information obtained from sources which we believe to be credible and reliable, but is
not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All the information contained herein is based upon information
available to the public.
The recipient of this report must make its own independent assessment and decisions regarding any securities or
financial instruments mentioned herein.
This report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or related
financial instruments. The investment discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors
depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position.
The material in this research report is general information intended for recipients who understand the risks associated
with investment. It does not take account of whether an investment, course of action, or associated risks are suitable
for the recipient.
Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment
strategies discussed or recommended in this research report and should understand that the statements regarding
future prospects may not be realized. Investors may receive back less than initially invested. Past performance is not a
guarantee for future performance.
Fincor – Sociedade Corretora, S.A. accepts no liability of any type for any indirect or direct loss arising from the use of
this research report.
Recommendations and opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date referred on this research report.
Current recommendations or opinions are subject to change as they depend on the evolution of the company or may
become outdated as a consequence of changes in the environment.
Fincor - Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides services of reception, execution, and transmission of orders.
Fincor – Sociedade Corretora, S.A.

Rua Castilho, 44 4º Andar
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Analise Semanal Fincor 26 a 30 Novembro

  • 1. 2012 th, Weekly Markets 26 n Perspectives November For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
  • 2. Weekly Summary Risk assets rebounded last week. Global stocks Portugal passed the sixth review of its markets had their best weekly gains in many programme. The Troika said that downside risks months, reflecting increased optimism after to growth were significant. Given this economic president Obama expressed confidence on a fiscal backdrop, will Portugal be able to meet its fiscal cliff agreement with Congress. However, the road targets of 5% of GDP this year and 4.5% of GDP in to a fiscal compromise is still expected to be 2013? bumpy. The EU Summit on a spending plan for the years The Euro-zone stock markets had to face two 2014-2020 showed strong differences in opinion negative events: the downgrade of France and and no agreement. further delay in the release of the loans to Greece. In China, the November HSBC “flash” Moody’s has downgraded France from Aaa to Aa1 manufacturing PMI rose to a 13-month high. In (outlook remains Negative) due to a sustained loss Europe, the November “flash” PMIs for France, of competitiveness and the uncertain fiscal outlook. Germany and the euro area seem to point to a The market reaction has been fairly modest. Euro-zone contraction in Q4. The Eurogroup was unable to reach a consensus The Japanese election is scheduled for December last Tuesday on Greece. A new meeting will be held 16th. The pronouncements of the LDP leader are today to decide in which conditions will be released influencing the market as they are seen as the the next bailout tranche to Greece. policies of the future prime minister of Japan.
  • 3. Portugal passes sixth review of its programme • The statement by the European Commission, reforms are proceeding; ECB, and IMF on the sixth review mission to • Rising unemployment weighs on households’ Portugal was published last week; incomes, while the recession in the euro area is • Portugal has passed the 6th quarterly review of beginning to bear on exports dynamics; its rescue programme. The country will receive • The statement mentions that downside risks to the next €2.5bn tranche of its loan. With this, growth are significant. Real GDP in 2013 is Portugal will have received 87% of its €78bn expected to decline by 1%, but should gradually rescue loan; return to positive quarterly growth rates during • The programme is considered to be broadly on the year. Is this projection too optimistic? track; • A expenditure review in underway by the • According to the statement, external and fiscal Portuguese government. Results will be discussed adjustment continue to advance, and structural during the seventh review (February 2013). Current Account Balance 20112012F 2013F IMF (WEO October 2012) -6.4%-2.9% -1.7% EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014 -9.0%-6.7% -4.1% Unemployment Rate 20112012F 2013F IMF (WEO October 2012) 12.7%15.5% 16.0% EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014 12.1%13.4% 13.3% Government Budget Deficit Target 20112012F 2013F 6th Review Mission 5.0% 4.5% EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014 5.9% 4.5% 3.0% Source: IMF; Bank of Portugal Source: Bank of Portugal, IMF
  • 4. BoP and INE releases monthly IFO rebounds in November economic indicators • The overall German business climate indicator • In October 2012, the monthly coincident rose from 100 in October to 101.4 in indicators for the y/y evolution of economic November; activity and private consumption, calculated by • The rise was unexpected. However, the index the Bank of Portugal, increased compared to the remains at its second lowest level since previous month (see chart); February 2010; • However, the economic climate indicator, • It is probably too soon to conclude that released by INE (the statistical office of Portugal) Germany is going through a renewed upturn, fell in September and October, interrupting the which would be positive for the peripheral previous tenuous ascending path. economy. BoP Monthly Economic Indicators Ifo Business Climate Indicator and German GDP 6 115 5% 4 105 0.9% 1% 2 Activity Coincident Indicator - Monthly 95 -3% 0 93.2 -1.7 -2 Private Consumption Coincident Indicator - 85 -7% -4 Monthly -6 -4.5 75 -11% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 -8 Ifo Business Expectations (Adv. 3 mths, LHS) German GDP (% y/y, RHS) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Bank of Portugal Source: Ifo Institute; Eurostat
  • 5. Moody’s downgrades France Euro-zone recession keeps going… • Moody’s put France on negative outlook in • The Euro-zone “flash” composite PMI index February and S&P downgraded it in January. increased slightly in November from 45.7 to 45.8 France is now rated Aa1 by Moody’s. However (see chart); bond yields remain very low (see chart); • The pick-up in the composite index reflects an • The downgrade can cut the lending capacity of increase in the manufacturing index offsetting a the EFSF and ESM; fall in the service index. The service index fell to a • It can also strain the relationship between 40-month low, pointing to the negative effects of Germany and France; the austerity and to a weakening labour market; • Will France be pushed towards more austerity • The German composite index increased from 47.7 measures to reduce its budget deficit to 3% of to 47.9, while the French index rose from 43.5 to GDP next year? 44.6; 10-Yr Government Bond Yield Composite PMI and Euro-zone GDP 4.0% 4.0% 65 1.5% 1.0% 3.5% 3.5% 60 0.5% 3.0% 3.0% 55 -0.10% 0.0% -0.5% 2.5% 50 2.2% 2.5% -1.0% 45 45.8 -1.5% 2.0% 2.0% -2.0% Germany 1.4% 40 1.5% 1.5% -2.5% France 35 -3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Composite PMI (LHS) Euro-zone GDP (q/q, RHS) Source: Bloomberg Source: Markit and Eurostat
  • 6. Spanish Banks NPLs at 10.71% Catalonia went to the polls • NPLs increased by €3.45bn to €182bn in • Artur Mas called the election after Madrid September (+2% m/m), reflecting a weak refused more fiscal autonomy for Catalonia; economy, the Real Estate sector adjustment and • Catalan people are increasingly in favour of high unemployment levels; independence; • Private deposits fell 7.3% y/y (+1.4% m/m); • Catalonia is the most indebted of the regions (see • Loans to the private resident sector decreased chart); 4.9% y/y. Total loans declined 2.2% y/y; • The economic fundamentals remain weak in • Sovereign debt holdings increased 46% y/y and Spain. The country is still expected to request 5% m/m (to 6.9% of total assets). ECB funding support from the euro area. Pressure on Spain is stood at €378bn at the end of September. likely to mount in 2013 in light of its gross bond issuance (€90bn). Regional Government Debt (% of region's GDP) 25% 22% 21% 20% 18% 18% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 11% 9% 9% 10% 5% 0% Madrid canarias Navarra Extremadura Galicia Murcia Andalucia Baleares Aragon Castilla y Leon Cantabria Castilla-La Mancha Pais Vasco Valencia Asturias Cataluna La Roja Source: Bank of Spain Source: Bank of Spain
  • 7. US: NAHB Housing Market Index is now at its highest level since May 2006 – Housing continues to strengthen • Housing data released last week (housing starts, • Initial jobless claims dropped 41,000 to 410,000 building permits, existing home sales and NAHB during the week ending November 17th. The US housing market index) continues to suggest a Department of Labor disclosed that the elevated recovery in the US housing market; claims readings from the past two weeks were • November consumer sentiment was revised distorted by Hurricane Sandy; down in the final estimate. The decline was likely • The flash estimate of the US Markit explained by weakness in the stock market in manufacturing PMI in November rose to a five- recent weeks; month high 52.4 from 51.3 in October. 460 NAHB Index vs. US Existing Home Sales 85 U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence Initial Jobless Claims (000s) 50 5.5 82.7 440 41 80 40 5.0 420 75 410 30 4.79 4.5 400 70 20 4.0 380 65 10 3.5 360 60 0 3.0 55 340 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NAHB Index (LHS) Existing Home Sales (mn annualized, RHS) 50 320 Source: National Association of Home Builders; 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec National Association of Realtors Source: U. of Michigan Research Center Source: US Department of Labor
  • 8. Cyprus close to EU/IMF bailout China: PMI supports steady The rescue could amount to around €17bn • (c.100% of Cyprus’s GDP), of which €10bn will be recovery to refinance banks; • The November HSBC flash manufacturing PMI • Banks’ exposure to Greece (160% of GDP) led to rose to a 13-month high of 50.4 (49.5 in massive losses, forcing Cyprus to ask Russia for a October), moving above the 50 threshold for €2.5bn loan late last year; the first time since October 2011 (see chart); • Cyprus requested a bailout in June and has been • The output index reached a 13-month high. in negotiations with the Troika since November New export orders rose above 50 for the first 9th; time since April 2012; • The European Commission sees the country’s • The positive signs seen in the September and deficit at 5.7% of GDP next year and the debt October activity data seem to have been ratio reaching 96.7%. sustained into November. Cyprus Real GDP growth (y/y) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -2.7% -2.2% -4% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
  • 9. Japan: Will the upcoming elections change the macroeconomic outcome ? • Since the lower house dissolution, the leader of • The new administration in Japan will probably the LDP (the largest opposition party) has spoken be aggressive on monetary policy, pushing for a about reform the BOJ monetary policy; higher inflation target and for bond buying by • The LDP will probably win a majority or near- BOJ; majority in the lower house. Nevertheless, the • LDP’s “Revitalization Plan for Japan’s Economy” LDP will need a coalition partner in order to pass includes measures in the tax system and in the legislation through the upper house; energy sector (e.g. overcome electricity-supply • There´s little clarity on fiscal policy because the constraints). LDP is split. There’s a group calling for more Japan: Government Debt vs. spending (higher public investment) and a group 210% Government Budget 10% concerned about fiscal deficit and government 200% 8% debt. However, an expansionary budget is likely in 190% 6% the near term; 180% • Increased pressure on the BOJ to buy JGBs; 170% 4% • The LDP’s economic policies intends to end yen 160% 2% appreciation and “the creation of a framework for 150% stronger collaboration between the government 140% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 and BoJ and the implementation of bold Government Debt as % of GDP (LHS) monetary easing, including revisions to the BoJ Government Budget Deficit as % of GDP (RHS) Law”; Source: Central Intelligence Agency; Bloomberg
  • 10. PSI20 weekly review • Sonae Indústria (SONI PL) fell 5.4%, the most in the PSI20. The company reported 3rd quarter 2012 results on November 16th. Although Sonae Indústria is now more efficient after the restructuring done over last years, its strong exposure to macro uncertainty in Europe and high financial leverage remain significant concerns for investors; • Jerónimo Martins (JMT PL) rose 6.6% to €14.5. The company’s Chairman said that Jerónimo Martins wants to have about 30 to 40 stores in Colombia next year. More details could be announced at its upcoming Investor’s Day in Lisbon on December 11st; • Galp (GALP PL)´s CEO stated that he expects exports to reach €4.2bn in FY12. With potencial upside to resources estimates from both Mozambique and Brazil, Galp could deliver one of the best production and earnings growth rates in the European oil and gas sector. The stock was up 5.5% last week; • Banco Espirito Santo (BES PL) rose 3.7% over the week. The bank announced a R$ 100mn capital increase for its Brazilian unit (80% BES and 20% Bradesco). Source: Bloomberg
  • 11. Q3 2012 Mota-Engil Results: Net profit increase 11% y/y to €7mn • Mota-Engil (EGL PL) reported Q3 2012 results. Revenues reached €675mn, up 16% y/y and 5% above consensus, reflecting the good performance of the international unit (more than compensating the weakness of the domestic unit); • Q3 2012 EBITDA rose 9% y/y to €83mn, a 3% beat vs. consensus. EBIT stood at €53mn, up 6% y/y. Net profit was €7mn, which compares to €11mn from consensus. Higher minorities reflect the strong performance of the Angolan unit. Net debt deceased 1% q/q; • The order book fell 6% q/q; • The re-negotiation of the Portuguese shadow tolls’ remuneration (that are currently paid by availability) is ongoing; • The company continues to diversify its revenue sources; • Regarding the privatization of the Portuguese Airport Operator (ANA), Mota-Engil’s stake in the consortium should be small. € thousand Q3 2011 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Change % Q/Q Change % Y/Y Turnover 582,121 530,637 675,009 27% 16% EBITDA 75,606 72,417 82,693 14% 9% EBIT 50,457 48,103 53,336 11% 6% Net Income 16,207 20,564 23,220 13% 43% Non Controlling Interests 9,945 6,766 16,257 Net profit to the Group 6,262 13,798 6,963 -50% 11% Source: Company data
  • 12. Last week’s market highlights Hewlett Packard share price ($) • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ US) fell 3.0% over the week. The 50 45 company reported Q4 FY12 of $1.16, ahead of consensus 40 of $1.14. However, the company’s outlook for next 35 quarter was disappointing, although it maintained its 30 25 FY13 outlook. Sentiment and expectations around the 20 stock continue to be remarkably depressed. Hewlett- 15 12.46 Packard accused Autonomy, the software company it 10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 4.5 bought last year, of several falsehoods that contributed Nokia share price (€) 4.0 to a $8.8bn writedown; 3.5 • Nokia (NOK1V FH) surged 30.5%. The company disclosed 3.0 €2.754 that it received reports that its Lumia 920 model had 2.5 sold out in Germany. Nokia still has a long way to go to 2.0 reach sustainable profitability. Nevertheless, investor 1.5 1.0 sentiment on Nokia shares and on the new Windows 8 Dec- 11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec- 12 Nokia Lumia 920/820 phones were overly negative; 3.5 Gamesa Share price (€) • Gamesa (GAM SM) rose 9.9% to €1.703. Gamesa India 3.0 2.5 announced that it will develop 47.6MW wind farm in 2.0 Maharashtra. The company presented last October its 1.5 1.703 2012-15 business plan. Gamesa targets a €100mn fixed 1.0 cost reduction and will implement several restructuring 0.5 moves. Jan-12 Mar- 12 Source: Company data May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12
  • 13. What we are watching this week: CALENDAR - Event Date Hour (GMT) Survey Prior • Euro-zone finance ministers and Troika BOJ Minutes of Oct 30 monetary policy meeting 26-Nov 23:50 n.a. n.a. Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa speech 26-Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. representatives will attempt to reach an Euro-Zone Finance Ministers meet on Greek Debt 26-Nov 11:30 n.a. n.a. GfK Consumer Confidence Survey ,Germany 26-Nov 12:00 6.2 6.3 agreement on Greece matters today. FED Chairman Bernanke gives brief opening remarks at College Fed 27-Nov 13:30 n.a. n.a. Will a deal be announced on a reshuffle Hungary monetary policy decision Portugal to hold final vote on 2013 Budget 27-Nov 27-Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Q3 Real GDP details (y/y), UK 27-Nov 09:30 0.0% 0.0% of the Greek bailout programme? Will OECD November Economic Outlook, Euro-Zone 27-Nov 10:00 n.a. n.a. Durable Goods Orders, US 27-Nov 13:30 -0.8% 9.9% some debt relief be offered to Greece? Richmond Fed Manufact. Index ,US 27-Nov 15:00 n.a. -7 The discussion will start at 11:30 GMT; Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, US (Nov) Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (y/y) ,Euro-Zone 27-Nov 28-Nov 15:00 09:00 73.0 2.8% 72.2 2.7% • On Wednesday, the ECB will release its New Home Sales, US Federal Reserve Beige Book, US 28-Nov 28-Nov 15:00 19:00 388K n.a. 389K n.a. data on monetary developments in the Brazil Copom monetary policy decision 28-Nov n.a. 7.25% 7.25% Unemployment Change (000's), Germany 29-Nov 08:55 16K 20K Euro-zone for October; Unemployment Rate, Germany 29-Nov 08:55 6.9% 6.9% Business Climate Indicator, Euro-Zone 29-Nov 10:00 -1.60 -1.62 • There will be various inflation figures Euro-Zone Economic Confidence, Euro-Zone 29-Nov 10:00 84.5 84.5 Q3 Real GDP (revision) QoQ (Annualized), US 29-Nov 13:30 2.8% 2.0% for November later in the week Initial Jobless Claims, US 29-Nov 13:30 390K 410K Continuing Claims, US 29-Nov 13:30 3321K 3337K (Germany, Spain, Italy, Euro-zone); Consumer Spending (y/y), France 30-Nov 07:45 -0.5% -0.3% • In the US, the durable goods report for Consumer Confidence, Portugal Economic Climate Indicator, Portugal 30-Nov 30-Nov 10:00 10:00 n.a. n.a. -55.3 -4.6 October will be disclosed Tuesday; Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (y/y) 30-Nov 30-Nov 10:00 10:00 11.7% 2.4% 11.6% 2.5% • The Conference Board measure of Japan nationwide CPI (Oct) Industrial Production (m/m), Portugal 30-Nov 30-Nov n.a. 11:00 n.a. n.a. n.a. -12.0% consumer confidence (Tuesday) and the Japan industrial production (prelim. Oct) 30-Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. Retail Sales (m/m), Portugal 30-Nov 11:00 n.a. -4.1% October personal and spending report GDP (IBGE) y/y ,Brazil 30-Nov 11:00 1.9% 0.5% Gross Domestic Product y/y, Canada 30-Nov 13:30 1.2% 1.2% (Friday) should also be watched closely; Personal Income, US (Oct) 30-Nov 13:30 0.2% 0.4% Personal Spending, US (Oct) 30-Nov 13:30 0.1% 0.8% • Q3 2012 real GDP data for Switzerland Chicago Purchasing Manager, US 30-Nov 14:45 51.0 49.9 China manufacturing PMI (Nov) 1-Dec n.a. n.a. 50.2 and Sweden are due Thursday. Korea trade balance (Nov) 1-Dec n.a. n.a. n.a.
  • 14. Next Week Preview: Economics US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence for 120 November is due Tuesday (November 27th). The 100 fall in gasoline prices, the recent pick-up in job 80 growth and the recovery in the housing market 60 should continue to support consumer sentiment. 40 However, the fall in equity prices at the beginning 20 of the month and fiscal cliff uncertainty could 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 have a negative effect; • The latest orders data from public homebuilders suggest that US housing market continues to recover. October’s new home sales will be released Wednesday (November 28th). Nonetheless, Hurricane Sandy could have had some impact; • Brazil Q3 2012 Real GDP will be released Friday. 2.0% Brazil Real GDP (q/q) Real GDP growth is expected to have accelerated. 1.3% If confirmed, the central bank will probably stop 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% cutting rates. Interest rates have been cut by 0.6% 0.4% 525bp since mid-2011. Both monetary and fiscal 0.1% 0.1% policies seems to be expansionary, at the -0.2% Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec- 10 Mar- 11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec- 12 moment. Source: Bloomberg
  • 15. Next Week Preview: Eurogroup meeting and Portugal earnings season The Eurogroup meets again Portugal: This week’s results today • The Eurogroup and the IMF were not able to • Soares da Costa (SCOAE PL) will report its Q3 find an agreement to finish the Greek 2012 results on November 29th (before market programme review and proceed to the payment open). A poor performance is expected for the of the next financing tranche; domestic market. However, investor should focus • Official lenders are reported to be considering a on the performance of the Angolan and US units; debt buyback program, a cut on interest rates • Banif (BNF PL) will disclose Q3 2012 earnings on charged on Greek loans (or even allow for a November 30th. B/S deleverage, assets disposals grace period), and to lengthen maturities; and restructuring costs should penalize the bank’s • According to press reports, the Eurogroup is results. The Bank recapitalization plan should working on ways to bring down the debt to GDP remain the investors’ main focus; ratio more aggressively; • Teixeira Duarte (TDSA PL) is expected to • However, European member states still oppose announce Q3 2012 results on November 30th. A outright haircuts on Greek loans; weak performance in the domestic unit should • An agreement at today’s meeting would allow reflect the depressed market environment. the payment of the Q3 2012 (€31.3bn), the Q4 International markets (particularly Brazil) should 2012 (€5bn) and probably also the Q1 2012 continue growing. Retail and the Hotels unit (€8.3bn) financing tranches, totaling €44bn. should show positive signs.
  • 16. Charts we are watching (I) • Glencore (GLEN LN)’s takeover of Xstrata (XTA LN) Glencore and Xstrata share prices 130 140 got the go-ahead from both sets of shareholders last 120 Glencore 130 Tuesday. This deal was only possible after Glencore Xstrata 120 proposed a revised offer of 3.05 new shares for 110 110 every Xstrata share, up from 2.8. Moreover, Europe’s 100 antitrust regulator announced more modest than 100 90 expected conditions to clear the deal. Glencore must 90 now secure a final approval from China and South 80 80 Dec. 31, 2011 = 100 African authorities. The Glencore Xstrata seems to 70 70 be an attractive story from an EPS momentum Jan-12 Source: Bloomberg Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 (commodity mix, self-help) and growth point of view. 8 Banco Popular Share Price (€) 7 • Banco Popular (POP SM)’s EGM recently approved a 6 €2.5bn rights issue to meet capital needs from Oliver 5 Wyman’s stress test. The rights will trade until November 28th, and the new shares will start trading 4 on December 6th. Once completed, the bank is 3 expected to have confortable capital ratios. The 2 stock is down c.70% YTD. Given the weak domestic 1 0.55 economy backdrop, will its business model allow the 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 bank to achieve higher ROEs in the mid-term? Source: Bloomberg
  • 17. Charts we are watching (II) • Zon (ZON PL) and Sonaecom (SNC PL) rose 5.3% and ZON and Sonaecom Share Prices 130 4.3%, respectively over the last week. Both stocks outperformed the Portuguese Stock Market Index 120 Dec. 31, 2011 = 100 PSI20. ANACOM, the Portuguese telecom regulator, announced that it intends to release the regulation on 110 fibre until the end of the year. Investors seem to remain 100 focused on a possible M&A deal between the two companies and the meaningful impact that it should 90 ZON Sonaecom bring to both. Zon and Sonaecom seem to have a strong 80 fit. A deal would allow significant cost synergies and Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Source: Bloomberg create a strong integrated player to compete with Portugal Telecom. JPY/USD (JPY per 1 USD) (RHS) Topix vs. JPY/USD exchange rate 880 Topix Stock Market Index 84 • The Topix stock market index showed again strong gains (LHS) 83 on a weaker yen and easing expectations. Japanese 840 JPY/USD (JPY per 1 USD) 82 (RHS) stocks were supported by the LDP election manifesto 800 81 (released on November 21st), that included significant 80 monetary easing, a 2% inflation target, and more than 760 79 3% nominal GDP growth. At the monetary policy 720 78 meeting on November 20th, the BOJ Policy Board voted 77 680 76 unanimously to maintain the current policy rate and to Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 keep the size of the Asset Purchase Programme. Source: Bloomberg
  • 18. Disclosure Section This research report is based on information obtained from sources which we believe to be credible and reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All the information contained herein is based upon information available to the public. The recipient of this report must make its own independent assessment and decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. This report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The investment discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The material in this research report is general information intended for recipients who understand the risks associated with investment. It does not take account of whether an investment, course of action, or associated risks are suitable for the recipient. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this research report and should understand that the statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors may receive back less than initially invested. Past performance is not a guarantee for future performance. Fincor – Sociedade Corretora, S.A. accepts no liability of any type for any indirect or direct loss arising from the use of this research report. Recommendations and opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date referred on this research report. Current recommendations or opinions are subject to change as they depend on the evolution of the company or may become outdated as a consequence of changes in the environment. Fincor - Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides services of reception, execution, and transmission of orders.
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