09 21-11 forecast2012

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09 21-11 forecast2012

  1. 1. CALIFORNIA HOUSINGMARKET 2012 FORECASTLeslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist
  2. 2. Overview US and California Economies California Housing Market CA Regional Housing Markets 2011 Annual Market Survey 2012 Housing Market Forecast
  3. 3. U.S. Economic Outlook
  4. 4. 2011: A Year of Wild Cards Political Change on Oil Price Spikes Capitol Hill Arab Uprising Sovereign Debt Crisis in EuroZoneDebt LimitCeiling &Downgrade Stockof US Debt Market Volatility
  5. 5. Gross Domestic Product: Stall Speed 2010: 2.8%; 2011 Q1: 0.4% Q2: 1.0% ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $ 8% 7% ANNUAL QTRLY 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%-6%-7%-8% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Q2-10 Q4-10 Q2-11
  6. 6. Components of GDP:Consumer Spending Weak; Gov’t Sector Down Quarterly Percent Change 3.0 2.5 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 2.0 Q1 2011 1.5 Q2 2011 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Consumption Fixed Nonres. Net Exports Government InvestmentSOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  7. 7. Consumers Pulling Back Home Equity & Reverse Wealth Effect Consumer Spending 2011 Q1: 2.7% Q2: 0.4%8% QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGE6%4%2%0%-2%-4% 1Q-2000 1Q-2001 1Q-2002 1Q-2003 1Q-2004 1Q-2005 1Q-2006 1Q-2007 1Q-2008 1Q-2009 1Q-2010 1Q-2011SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  8. 8. Unemployment Stubbornly High August 2011California (12.1%) vs. United States (9.1%)14% CA US12%10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
  9. 9. U.S. Job Growth: Flat in August Month-to-Month Changes Recession Job Losses: 8.4 million Since Jan’10: +1.8 million 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0-100,000-200,000-300,000-400,000-500,000-600,000-700,000-800,000-900,000 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: US Dept of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  10. 10. California Job Growth Faltering Month-to-Month Changes Recession Job Losses: 1.3 million Since Jan’10: +188,100 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 -20000 -40000 -60000 -80000 -100000 -120000 -140000 -160000 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Nov-08 Sep-09 Mar-10 Nov-09 Sep-10 Mar-11 Nov-10 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
  11. 11. Where are California’s Jobs? Employment Trends: Construction & Financial Biggest Losers Year to Industry 2005 Jul-11 Date Mining and Logging 23,600 27,600 4,000 Construction 905,300 567,300 -338,000 Manufacturing 1,502,600 1,257,600 -245,000 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 2,822,100 2,641,500 -180,600 Information 473,600 455,400 -18,200 Financial Activities 920,300 755,800 -164,500 Professional & Business Services 2,160,700 2,136,200 -24,500 Educational & Health Services 1,593,400 1,837,000 243,600 Leisure & Hospitality 1,475,200 1,531,600 56,400 Other Services 505,500 484,500 -21,000 Government 2,420,200 2,380,200 -40,000 TOTAL 14,802,500 14,074,700 -727,800SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  12. 12. 100 120 140 160 20 40 60 80Jan-00Jul-00Jan-01Jul-01Jan-02 INDEX, 100=1985Jul-02Jan-03Jul-03Jan-04Jul-04Jan-05Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07 August 2011: 44.5Jan-08Jul-08 Lowest Since April ‘09Jan-09Jul-09 Consumer Confidence SlippingJan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11
  13. 13. Crisis of Confidence: Small Business Optimism DownSource: National Federation of Independent Business
  14. 14. Consumer Prices Low but Heading Higher CPI August 2011: All Items +3.8% YTY; Core +2.0% YTYPERCENT CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO, 100=1982-1984 6% All Items 5% Core 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
  15. 15. Housing
  16. 16. California vs. U.S. Sales US Home Sales CA Home Sales7,000,000 700,0006,000,000 600,0005,000,000 500,0004,000,000 400,0003,000,000 300,0002,000,000 200,0001,000,000 100,000 0 0 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  17. 17. California vs. U.S. Median Price US Median Price CA Median Price$600,000$500,000$400,000$300,000$200,000$100,000 $0 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  18. 18. Housing Affordability: Records Highs California Vs. U.S. CA US 100% % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q1 2000 Q3 2000 Q1 2001 Q3 2001 Q1 2002 Q3 2002 Q1 2003 Q3 2003 Q1 2004 Q3 2004 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  19. 19. CA Underwater Mortgages Negative Equity Share in CA Near Negative Equity Share in CA 40% 35% 30.2% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 4.6% 5% 0% Q4-2009 Q1-2010 Q2-2010 Q3-2010 Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011SOURCE: CoreLogic
  20. 20. Monetary Policy
  21. 21. Mortgage Rates @ Historical Lows Debt Down Grade Ignited Flight to Quality FRM ARM6.00% MONTHLY WEEKLY5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00% 9.15.11 2009.01 2009.04 2009.07 2009.10 2010.01 2010.04 2010.07 2010.10 2011.01 2011.04 2011.07 8.4.11 8.25.11
  22. 22. Classic Liquidity Trap: Consumers Deleveraging Low Rates and Low Borrowing10%9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2% FRM ARM1% Federal Funds0% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
  23. 23. Fiscal Policy
  24. 24. US Deficit Highest in Decades 2010: 11% of GDP (Revenues – Expenses) 4.0% Deficit as a % of GDP 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: US Treasury, BEA, compiled by C.A.R.Note: Positive = Surplus
  25. 25. US Debt Jumped as Government Responded to Financial Crisis 2010: 93% of GDP 100.0% 90.0% Debt as a % of GDP 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1974 1996 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: US Treasury, compiled by C.A.R.
  26. 26. Obama Jobs Proposal What: $450 Billion stimulus: Tax cuts ($250B) and infrastructure spending ($200B) Why: Economy is stalled/Avoid double-dip Zero job growth in August/high unemployment Stabilize confidence: consumer, business, investor How: Increase taxes on the rich Entitlement Reform Tax Reform
  27. 27. Federal Issues – Critical Concerns High-cost Loan Limit - expires 10/1/11 Future of Fannie and Freddie in flux - Increase guarantee fee likely FHA targeted for market share drop Tax Reform on the horizon – MID? QRM (Qualified Residential Mortgage) 20% Down – Is the future of the 30 year mortgage in doubt?
  28. 28. U.S. Economic Outlook 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f • US GDP 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% -2.6% 2.9% 1.7% 2.0% Nonfarm Job 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% -0.6% -4.4% -0.7% 1.0% 0.9% Growth Unemployment 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 9.0% 8.9% CPI 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% -0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 2.3% Real Disposable Income, % 1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% Change Forecast Date: September 2011SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  29. 29. California Economic Outlook 2005 2006 • 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012fNonfarm Job 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% -1.3% -6.0% -1.4% 1.5% 2.1%GrowthUnemployment 5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.2% 11.4% 12.4% 12.0% 11.2%RatePopulation 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%GrowthReal DisposableIncome, % 1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% -2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0%Change Forecast Date: September 2011 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  30. 30. California Housing Market
  31. 31. California Sales of Existing Homes and Median Price Housing Cycle Comparisons 1970- 2011 UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $ Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price 700,000 -44% 600,000 500,000 -61% -25% 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  32. 32. Dollar Volume of Sales Down 5% in 2011, Up 3% in 2012 $ in Billion % Change $ Volume of Sales Percent Change $350 50% $327 37% 40% $300 24% 30% $250 26% 20% $200 16% 10% 2% $150 3% 0% $129 -2% -1.0% -5% -10% $100 $150 $143 $147 -20% -19% $50 -22% -27% -30% $0 -40% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  33. 33. Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence California, August 2011 Sales: 497,390 Units, Down 0.4% YTD, Up 10.2% YTY UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX 700,000 160 600,000 140 120 500,000 100 400,000 80 300,000 60 200,000 40 100,000 20 0 0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
  34. 34. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes California, August 2011: $297,060, Down 7.4% YTY $700,000 P: May-07 $594,530 $600,000 $500,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230 $400,000 -59% from peak $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  35. 35. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Jan-88 MONTHS Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Unsold Inventory Index Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 California, August 2011: 5.0 Months Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
  36. 36. Unsold Inventory Index (Months) Price Range (Thousand) Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 $1,000K+ 11.1 9.2 9.1 $750-1000K 7.0 6.9 6.2 $500-750K 6.4 6.3 5.6 $300-500K 5.7 5.6 5.2 $0-300K 4.8 5.1 4.6SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  37. 37. Unsold Inventory By Price Range Jan 2005 – August 2011 MONTHS 30 $0 - 300K $300-500K 25 $500-750K $750-1000K 20 $1,000K+- All 15 10 5 0 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Apr-05 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jul-06 Apr-07 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  38. 38. Market Breakdown:Equity v. Distressed Sales
  39. 39. Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales60% Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 44.5% 42.9% 43.7%40% 24.7% 25.2% 24.4% 19.3% 18.9%20% 17.5%0% REOs Short Sales Distressed Sales SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  40. 40. Tight Supply of Inventory for REO Sales Aug-11UnsoldInventory Index(Months) 8.1 9 8 7 5.7 6 5 4 2.6 3 2 1 0 Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
  41. 41. Distressed Sales: Bay Area (Percent of Total Sales) Aug-11 100% 80% 71% 60% 48% 40% 27% 43% 25% 31% 20% 0% Marin Napa San Mateo Santa Clara Solano SonomaSOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  42. 42. REO & Short Sales: Bay Area (Percent of Total Sales)100% Aug 2011 80% Short Sales REO Sales 60% 26% 40% 20% 15% 18% 20% 28% 15% 21% 45% 13% 0% 11% 10% 24% Marin Napa San Mateo Santa Clara Solano SonomaSOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  43. 43. Distressed Sales: Southern CA (Percent of Total Sales) Aug-11 100% 80% 62% 64% 60% 44% 40% 33% 20% 27% 0% Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino San DiegoSOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  44. 44. REO & Short Sales: Southern CA (Percent of Total Sales) 100% Aug 2011 80% Short Sales REO Sales 60% 14% 26% 40% 24% 20% 20% 20% 35% 49% 12% 8% 0% 19% Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino San DiegoSOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  45. 45. Distressed Sales: Central Valley (Percent of Total Sales) Aug-11 100% 73% 80% 67% 59% 60% 62% 60% 40% 20% 0% Madera Merced San Benito Sacramento KernSOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  46. 46. REO & Short Sales: Central Valley (Percent of Total Sales)100% Aug 2011 Short Sales 80% REO Sales 7% 60% 23% 30% 40% 24% 19% 67% 20% 36% 37% 38% 41% 0% Madera Merced San Benito Sacramento KernSOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  47. 47. Distressed Sales: Rest of California (Percent of Total Sales) Aug-11 100% 80% 59% 64% 60% 62% 42% 45% 56% 40% 31% 48% 35% 20% 0%SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  48. 48. REO & Short Sales: Rest of California (Percent of Total Sales) 100% Aug 2011 80% Short Sales REOs 60% 11% 7% 40% 8% 25% 5% 48% 7% 57% 13% 9% 20% 34% 25% 36% 20% 32% 51% 0% 39% 15%SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  49. 49. California Foreclosure Filings August 2011 NTS: 24,260, -16.9% YTD • NOD: 32,338, -21.5% YTD Notice of Trustee Sale - Counts Notice of Defaults - Counts 65,000 6 Month Average: 60,000 NTSs: 23,806 55,000 50,000 NODs: 23,625 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
  50. 50. CA Foreclosure Outcomes August 2011 REO: -12.2% YTD • 3rd Party: -4.1% YTD • Cancel: -19.7% YTD REOs Sold to 3rd Party Cancellations 6 Month Average: 30,000 REO: 10,880 25,000 3rd Party: 3,616 Cancelled: 14,447 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Apr-07 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
  51. 51. CA Foreclosure Inventories August 2011 Preforeclosure: -17.5% YTD • Schedule for Sale: -17.8% YTD • Bank Owned: 7.0% YTD 6 Month Average: Preforeclosure Scheduled for Sale Bank Owned Preforeclosure: 115,742 Schedule for Sale: 200,000 105,138 Bank Owned: 108,635 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Apr-07 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
  52. 52. San JosePreforeclosure: 1,367 • Auction: 2,166 • Bank Owned: 617 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11
  53. 53. Santa Clara Preforeclosure: 86 • Auction: 131 • Bank Owned: 41Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11
  54. 54. Palo AltoPreforeclosure: 17 • Auction: 21 • Bank Owned: 4 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/11/11
  55. 55. San FranciscoPreforeclosure: 525 • Auction: 681 • Bank Owned: 179 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/11/11
  56. 56. South Lake Tahoe Preforeclosure: 113 • Auction: 112 • Bank Owned: 77Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/11/11
  57. 57. Sacramento Preforeclosure: 2,216 • Auction: 1,905 • Bank Owned: 1,560Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11
  58. 58. Stockton Preforeclosure: 895 • Auction: 1,093 • Bank Owned: 691Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/11/11
  59. 59. Los Angeles Preforeclosure: 2,975 • Auction: 4,659 • Bank Owned: 1,331Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 09/19/2011
  60. 60. Anaheim Preforeclosure: 498 • Auction: 667 • Bank Owned: 219Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 09/14/11
  61. 61. Irvine Preforeclosure: 262 • Auction: 360 • Bank Owned: 92Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 09/14/11
  62. 62. Newport Beach Preforeclosure: 124 • Auction: 154 • Bank Owned: 18Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 09/14/11
  63. 63. San Diego Preforeclosure: 2,016 • Auction: 2,001 • Bank Owned: 797Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 09/19/2011
  64. 64. Commercial Market
  65. 65. Commercial Outlook Industrial US Vacancy Rate 2011-2013: 13.0, 12.2%, 10.0% Better in LA, Orange County, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Oakland than elsewhere in US Need gains in trade and mfg to improve Retail US Vacancy Rate 2011-2013: 13.0%, 12.3%, 11.5% Vacancy rates lower in most CA metro areas, except Sacramento Fundamentals weak across markets of the state, need increased consumer spending to reverse trend
  66. 66. Commercial Outlook Office US Vacancy Rate 2011-2013: 16.6%, 16.4%, 16.0% Weak markets because of job losses across many sectors SF and LA outperforming the US Multi-Family US Vacancy Rate 2011-2013: 5.6, 4.7%, 4.4% All CA metro areas outperform US averages Push from problems in owner-occupied sector
  67. 67. Regional Housing Markets
  68. 68. Northern California
  69. 69. Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence Northern CA, August 2011: 1,242 Units, Up 9.3% YTD, Up 24.6% YTY UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX 1,800 160 1,600 140 1,400 120 1,200 100 1,000 80 800 60 600 40 400 200 20 0 0 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®;SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference BoardThe Conference Board
  70. 70. Home Sales in Northern California Aug-10 Aug-11 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Butte Humbolt Lake Paradise Placer Shasta Siskiyou South Tahoe Tehama County County County Lake SierraSOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® Tahoe
  71. 71. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes Northern CA, August 2011: $223,890, Down 11.5% YTY $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  72. 72. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes Northern California Region Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 M-t-M Y-t-Y Butte $243,420 $196,430 $201,320 2.5% -17.3% Humbolt $252,780 $232,999 $223,863 -3.9% -11.4% Lake County $132,857 $118,888 $123,636 4.0% -6.9% Paradise $194,999 $134,999 $163,333 21.0% -16.2% Placer County $292,499 $264,383 $266,233 0.7% -9.0% Shasta $171,176 $154,705 $162,917 5.3% -4.8% Siskiyou County $130,000 $130,000 $116,666 -10.3% -10.3% South Lake Tahoe $295,454 $238,888 $338,889 41.9% 14.7% Tahoe Sierra $474,999 $397,221 $450,000 13.3% -5.3% Tehama $127,500 $131,428 $123,333 -6.2% -3.3%SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  73. 73. Northern Wine Country
  74. 74. Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence Northern Wine Country, Aug. 2011: 620 Units, Up 3.2% YTD, Up 17.2% YTY UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX 1000 160 900 140 800 120 700 600 100 500 80 400 60 300 40 200 100 20 0 0 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board
  75. 75. Home Sales in Northern Wine Country Aug-10 Aug-11 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Mendocino Napa SonomaSOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  76. 76. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes Northern Wine Country, August 2011: $330,070, Down 12.5% YTY $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  77. 77. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes Northern Wine Country Region Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 M-t-M Y-t-YMendocino $ 258,330 $ 214,290 $ 201,920 -5.8% -21.8%Napa $ 394,230 $ 334,780 $ 354,760 6.0% -10.0%Sonoma $ 378,830 $ 333,490 $ 339,200 1.7% -10.5%SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  78. 78. Bay Area
  79. 79. Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence Bay Area, August 2011: 3,895 Units, Up 0.5% YTD, Up 12.1% YTY UNITS INDEX Sales Consumer Confidence 8,000 160 7,000 140 6,000 120 5,000 100 4,000 80 3,000 60 2,000 40 1,000 20 0 0 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board
  80. 80. Home Sales in Bay Area Counties Aug-10 Aug-11140012001000 800 600 400 200 0 Alameda Contra Marin Napa San San Mateo Santa Solano Sonoma Costa Francisco Clara (Central County) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  81. 81. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes Bay Area, August 2011: $498,190, Down 9.2% YTY $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  82. 82. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes Bay Area Counties County Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 M-t-M Y-t-Y Alameda $ 515,620 $ 462,890 $ 468,900 1.3% -9.1% Contra Costa (Central County) $ 670,450 $ 618,420 $ 607,310 -1.8% -9.4% Marin $ 794,120 $ 761,030 $ 806,550 6.0% 1.6% Napa $ 394,230 $ 334,780 $ 354,760 6.0% -10.0% San Francisco $ 675,780 $ 648,330 $ 632,270 -2.5% -6.4% San Mateo $ 780,000 $ 729,900 $ 742,000 1.7% -4.9% Santa Clara $ 625,000 $ 607,000 $ 595,000 -2.0% -4.8% Solano $ 207,090 $ 190,560 $ 197,880 3.8% -4.4% Sonoma $ 378,830 $ 333,490 $ 339,200 1.7% -10.5%SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  83. 83. Central Valley Region
  84. 84. Home Sales in Central Valley Region Aug-10 Aug-1118001600140012001000 800 600 400 200 0 d) a d re y no to ito y er ce nt nt l la en fie es n ad ou u er Tu Be m Co s Fr M M C er a n cr er s ak Sa g Sa ac (B in Pl K n er SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® K
  85. 85. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes Central Valley Regions County Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 M-t-M Y-t-Y Fresno $149,880 $ 139,470 $ 145,730 4.5% -2.8% Kern (Bakersfield) $142,700 $ 139,900 $ 135,000 -3.5% -5.4% Merced $121,870 $ 113,080 $ 126,670 12.0% 3.9% Sacramento $186,750 $ 168,060 $ 167,040 -0.6% -10.6%SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  86. 86. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes Central Valley Regions County Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 M-t-M Y-t-Y Fresno $ 149,880 $ 139,470 $ 145,730 4.5% -2.8% Kern (Bakersfield) $ 142,700 $ 139,900 $ 135,000 -3.5% -5.4% Kings County $ 168,570 $ 114,290 $ 130,000 13.7% -22.9% Madera $ 142,500 $ 92,500 $ 128,750 39.2% -9.6% Merced $ 121,870 $ 113,080 $ 126,670 12.0% 3.9% Placer County $ 292,500 $ 264,380 $ 266,230 0.7% -9.0% Sacramento $ 186,750 $ 168,060 $ 167,040 -0.6% -10.6% San Benito $ 280,000 $ 242,500 $ 239,900 -1.1% -14.3% Tulare $ 138,420 $ 114,230 $ 124,680 9.1% -9.9%SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  87. 87. Central Coast

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