Completion Selection Using Integrated Decision Making
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The document describes a completion selection process using decision matrix analysis to evaluate multiple completion options for an offshore well with poor reservoir properties. An integrated team identifies key evaluation factors like sand prevention, production rate, and water shut-off. They then rank completion options like vertical cased and perforated, vertical gravel pack, and horizontal options. Calculations show a horizontal open hole gravel pack provides the best production and reserves recovery within constraints. The process promotes cross-discipline collaboration and ensures the completion addresses each group's priorities.
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Completion Selection Using Integrated Decision Making
- 1. Primary funding is provided by The SPE Foundation through member donations and a contribution from Offshore Europe The Society is grateful to those companies that allow their professionals to serve as lecturers Additional support provided by AIME Society of Petroleum Engineers Distinguished Lecturer Program www.spe.org/dl 1
- 2. Completion Engineers: Decision Making with Cross Discipline Integration By Dan Gibson From add energy a global consulting engineering firm www.addenergy.no 2
- 3. Dan Gibson is a Senior Completions & Well Integrity engineer with over 35 years of experience. He has worked in Facilities, Production, and finally Completion Engineering. Dan and his wife have lived across the USA (Anchorage, Denver, Houston) and around the world in Gabon, Congo, Egypt, Scotland, and Australia. He understands both low cost, tight margin and high value, high cost well environments and how to be successful in both. Dan was an expert witness in the Deepwater Horizon Federal trial. He has authored or co-authored a number of papers ranging from polymer flood management to ice mechanics and most recently an innovative ICD system. He is one of the most active members of SPE Connect where SPE members can readily contact him and the entire SPE community with questions. 3 About the Author
- 4. Agenda ā¢ Show a robust completion decision process ā It is relatively quick ā Powerful support for decision making ā¢ Examine the Completion Decision Process for an Example Well ā Introduce an effective method to work with other discipline drivers to select the best completion ā¢ Look at a typical offshore problem, injection conformance, and see how the process can help ā Evaluation of a new technology (ICD) ā¢ Look at a typical onshore problem, new technology rod pumping unit evaluation 4
- 5. Evaluation Method - 1 Key Evaluation Factors This decision process is based on Decision Matrix Analysis which is one of the simplest forms of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis 5Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) ā¢ It provides a robust way to compare alternatives ā¢ The key evaluation criteria, and their importance, are clear Key Evaluation Factors Ranking Choice 1 Choice 2 Choice 3 Safety Gas Mileage Seats Cup Holders First - the Team needs to determine what factors are important for this completion Getting the other stakeholders in the room to discuss these factors is critical What are some of the key factors you might think about when buying a car?
- 6. Methodology Decision Matrix Analysis is the simplest form of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). For a lot of decisions there is not a lot of hard data and decision making is based on approximate or subjective data. For example, when comparing ideas at the āconceptā stage where little analytical work has been done. Where this is the case, Decision Matrix Analysis may be all thatās needed. And, where facts and data do exist, the can be used to help rank each evaluation factor. Methodology ā¢ Decision Matrix Analysis helps you to decide between several options, where you need to take many different factors into account. 1. Set up the Rows to show the factors you need to consider. Brainstorrm many topics but pick only the most important factors. 2. Weight the Factors from Most Important (5) to Least Important (1). The maximum number of rows is 10 but typically only 5-7 are sufficient to cover only the most important factors. 3. Show the options to be evaluated as Column Headings in a table. 4. Force rank each option for each factor using the number of options from Worst (1) to Best (3). No ties are allowed. High score must reflect ābestā option. 5. Multiply each score by the weight of the factor, and add up the weighted score for each option. The highest score reflects the best option for those factors. If the factors change the scoring will change.
- 7. Key Evaluation Factors Options Evaluation Method -2 Key Evaluation Factors Importance 4 is High Safety 4 Gas Mileage 3 Seats 2 Cup Holders 1 Next prioritize the evaluation factors 7Decision Matrix Analysis ā¢ Team needs to agree to the ranking ā¢ Different prioritization will result in different outcomes ā¢ How powerful is it to agree on the criteria and their importance Second - the Team needs to determine the most important factors for this completion These are Ranked by the Team as a Group which is important when trading off priorities
- 8. Key Evaluation Factors Options Evaluation Method -3 Key Evaluation Factors Importance 4 is High Compact Car Pickup Truck Minivan Safety 4 Gas Mileage 3 Seats 2 Cup Holders 1 Chose the alternatives to be evaluated 8Decision Matrix Analysis ā¢ Limit the choices to real options for the problem Third - list the options for this evaluation These are provided by the person running the evaluation
- 9. Evaluation Method - 4 Fourth, the Integrated Team evaluates each option 9Decision Matrix Analysis Ignore Importance when Ranking Use of a forced ranking system is required ā High number = Most Important ā¢ No ties if at all possible ā Should Ignore Importance when scoring to ensure fairness ā¢ In practice I hide the ranking column and even shift the rows Key Evaluation Factors Importance 4 is High Compact Car Pickup Truck Minivan Safety 4 Gas Mileage 3 Seats 2 Cup Holders 1 Hide the Priority Values Key Evaluation Factors Importance 4 is High Compact Car Pickup Truck Minivan Safety 4 1 3 2 Gas Mileage 3 3 1 2 Seats 2 2 1 3 Cup Holders 1 2 1 3 Hide the Importance Values
- 10. Evaluation Method - 5 Finally, calculate the weighted scores to determine the best option 10Decision Matrix Analysis Ignore Importance when Ranking ā¢ Multiply Importance times Option Score ā¢ Should Ignore Importance when scoring to ensure fairness ā In practice I hide the ranking column and shift the rows Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Compact Car Pickup Truck Minivan Safety 4 1 3 2 Gas Mileage 3 3 1 2 Seats 2 2 1 3 Cup Holders 1 2 1 3 Weighted Ranking 19 = 4*1+3*3+2*2+1*2
- 11. Evaluation Method - 6 Repeat and calculate the weighted scores to determine the best option 11Decision Matrix Analysis Ignore Importance when Ranking ā¢ Clear decision process ā¢ Group Participation provides understanding for decision ā¢ Easily documented for the record Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Compact Car Pickup Truck Minivan Safety 4 1 3 2 Gas Mileage 3 3 1 2 Seats 2 2 1 3 Cup Holders 1 2 1 3 Weighted Ranking 19 18 23
- 12. Well Completions Bring the Resource to the Surface for Processing How many Disciplines are represented in this figure? ā¢How do completion decisions impact all of these other disciplines? 12 Ground Level Reservoir WellCompletion PipelineSeparation Storage
- 13. Facility Engineer Completion Engineers Typical Interface Map 13 Drilling (Logistics, Res DIF, well control) Reservoir Engineer (Depletion Plan) Geology & Petrophysics (Reservoir Fluid & Rock Properties) Petroleum Engineer (Tubing Size, Interventions, & Production Ops) Production Chemistry Completion (Lifecycle view of: Sand Face Completion, Stimulation, Completion Integrity, etc)
- 14. First Example ā Multiple Interfaces 14 Drilling (Logistics, Res DIF, well control) Reservoir Engineer (Depletion Plan) Petroleum Engineer (Tubing Size, Interventions, & Production Ops) Geology & Petrophysics (Res Fluid & Rock Properties) Production Chemistry Facility Engineer (Sand production, Emulsions) Completion (Lifecycle view of: Sand Face Completion, Stimulation, Completion Integrity, etc)
- 15. Completion Selection Example 1. New Discovery, 50 ft net pay, Poor Perm 2. Pay is in two sands, thick 30 ft shale between 3. Reserves ~5 mmBO in offshore well 4. 75% of Reserves in the bottom sand with bottom water production risk (strong aquifer) 5. PI is 0.5 BOPD/psi without any stimulation 6. Weak sand with 1000 psi drawdown limit What Kind of Sand Face Completion is Required? 15 Image: pet-oilblogspot.com Lower Pay Water Shale Upper Pay Well
- 16. Calculate Well Life Do some quick math and see how long it will take to get the oil out; 5mmBO / (0.5 BOPD/psi * 1000 psi) = 27 years! ā¢ PI = 0.5 BOPD/psi ā¢ Sand Strength Drawdown limit = 1000 psi As Completion Engineers we need to find the right completion that will improve the value by getting the oil out faster How? 16
- 17. Completion Options ā 1 Vertical Cased & Perforated 17 Water Cement PLUG Well Perforations Casing Vertical Gravel Pack Water āGravelā Well GP Packer Casing GP Screen Plug
- 18. Completion Options ā 2 Horizontal Cased & Perforated Water Cement Well Perforations Casing Horizontal Gravel Pack Water Screen Well āGravelā Casing Plug Plug
- 19. How Can the Team Evaluate these Various Options? 19 Drilling (Horizontal Well, Multiple Wells) Reservoir Engineer (Depletion Plan) Petroleum Engineer (Sand production Impacts, OPEX, Water Shut-Off, etc) Facility Engineer (Sand prod, emulsions) Production Chemistry Geology & Petrophysics (Res Fluid & Rock Properties) Completion (Lifecycle view of: Sand Face Completion, Stimulation, Completion Integrity, etc)
- 20. Key Evaluation Factors Options Evaluation Method - Factors Key Evaluation Factors Sand Prevention Production Rate Water Shut- Off/Reserves Contractor Capability Each Completion Type will meet the Well requirements slightly differently 20Decision Matrix Analysis First the Team needs to determine what factors are important for this completion Getting the other stakeholders in the room to discuss these factors is critical ā¢ It is now up to the CE to lead the discussion with the integrated team to determine the best type of completion for this well ā Lets look at the Decision Matrix Analysis
- 21. Evaluation Method - Factors Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Sand Prevention 4 Production Rate 3 Water Shut- Off/Reserves 2 Contractor Capability 1 Getting Folks to Agree on a Priority Ranking is critical to selecting the right completion to deliver your most important evaluation factors i.e. business value drivers 21Decision Matrix Analysis Second the Team needs to determine the most important factors for this completion These are Ranked by the Team as a Group which is important when trading off priorities Note: This is an example only a real evaluation may have 20 evaluation factors considered but only 5- 8 key evaluation factors in my experience
- 22. Evaluation Method - Options Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Vertical C&P Vertical OHGP Horizontal C&P Horizontal OHGP Sand Prevention 4 Production Rate 3 Water Shut- Off/Reserves 2 Contractor Capability 1 Then Compare the Completion Options against the important factors ā¢ This is an example only. A real evaluation may have many different completion options. ā Note: OHGP = Open Hole Gravel Pack , C&P = Cased & Perfed 22Decision Matrix Analysis Third the Completion Engineer needs to determine the completion choices for this well
- 23. Evaluation Method - Evaluation Fourth, the Integrated Team evaluates each completion option ā¢ Use of a forced ranking system is required ā High number = Most Important ā¢ Should Ignore āImportanceā when scoring to ensure fairness 23Decision Matrix Analysis Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Vertical C&P Vertical OHGP Horizontal C&P Horizontal OHGP Sand Prevention 4 1 3 2 4 Production Rate 3 1 2 3 4 Water Shut- Off/Reserves 2 4 3 2 1 Contractor Capability 1 4 2 3 1 Ignore (hide) Importance when Scoring
- 24. Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Vertical C&P Vertical OHGP Horizontal C&P Horizontal OHGP Sand Prevention 4 1 3 2 4 Production Rate 3 1 2 3 4 Water Shut- Off/Reserves 2 4 3 2 1 Contractor Capability 1 4 2 3 1 Weighted Ranking 19 =4*1+3*1+2*4+1*4 Evaluation Method - Calculation Finally, calculate the āscoreā for each of the options using the Ranking of the Important Factors ā¢ Each completion selection is a compromise against the Key Factors 24Decision Matrix Analysis
- 25. Evaluation Method - Result 25 ā¢ The ābestā option is a Horizontal Open Hole Gravel Pack ā Vertical C&P clearly not the best option Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Vertical C&P Vertical OHGP Horizontal C&P Horizontal OHGP Sand Prevention 4 1 3 2 4 Production Rate 3 1 2 3 4 Water Shut- Off/Reserves 2 4 3 2 1 Contractor Capability 1 4 2 3 1 Weighted Ranking 19 26 24 31 ā¢ Team participation means that everyone has buy-in ā¢ And the risks that jeopardize success (Contractor Capability, Water Shut-Off) are well identified and have to be managed
- 26. Calculate Well Life Of course, the calculation of the time to produce the reserves for each option matches the evaluation Vert C&P = 5mmBO / (0.5 BOPD/psi * 1000 psi) = 27 years Vert OHGP = 5mmBO/ (0.5 BOPD/psi * 2000 psi) = ~14 years Horiz C&P = 5mmBO / (2 BOPD/psi * 500 psi) = ~14 years Horiz OHGP = 5mmBO / (2 BOPD/psi * 2000 psi) = ~4 years An economic evaluation will prove that the higher costs and higher complexity of the Horiz OHGP is justified ā¢ Economics are an outcome of the decision made ā not an input 26
- 27. Facility Engineer (Sand prod, emulsions) 27 Drilling (Horizontal Well, Multiple Wells) Reservoir Engineer (Depletion Plan) Geology & Petrophysics (Res Fluid & Rock Properties) Petroleum Engineer (Sand production Impacts, OPEX, Water Shut-Off, Interventions) Production Chemistry Completion (Lifecycle view of: Sand Face Completion, Stimulation, Completion Integrity, etc) Use of a rigorous process, leads to the best completion that addresses each disciplines business drivers
- 28. Lets Look at another Real Example Seismic shows two offshore fault blocks are not being drained But the blocks are isolated from the aquifer and need water injection to maintain reservoir pressure and provide sweep 28
- 29. Offshore, Subsea, Example Two Fault Blocks are isolated and undeveloped ā Most of Reserves in East fault block (right hand block) ā Unconsolidated, high perm (+1Darcy), reservoir sands ā Plan on 20,000 BWIPD with majority to East fault block (PWRI) 29Ref: SPE 136539 Isolated Fault Blocks Injector(s) 1 or 2? Producer(s) 1 or 2? ? ? ? ? Injection Manifold Production Manifold EastWest
- 30. E W Horizontal Wells a Challenge ā¢ Vertical Wells would be give the best injection and reserves but very high cost and delays to install new subsea tiebacks (production & injection subsea pipelines) ā¢ Drilling can reach both injector and producer locations from existing manifolds but with difficult well paths (see figures) ā¢ How do we best complete this complex injector? 30 Injector Ref: SPE 136539 Producer 600 meters 400 meters EastWest EastWest
- 31. Geology & Petrophysics Petroleum Engineer Economics (Marginal Development Costs) Not a Simple Decision with all these Factors 31 Drilling (Limited Drillable Wellpath from Drill Center) Reservoir Engineer (Effective Sweep Required) Subsea (Trees, Controls, Pipelines) Completion (Lifecycle view of: Materials, Equipment, New Technology, Stimulation, Sand Face, Fluids, etc)
- 32. Injector Options Horizontal OHGP (Like Producers) ā¢ Difficult to design to allocate 20,000 BWIPD into two zones ā¢ Consequence of failure is very poor sweep/lost reserves Horizontal Injection Control Device (ICD) ā¢ Each ICD only ~50-100 BWIPD ā¢ Need ~ 200 ICD screens but matrix injection sensitive to plugging Most Reserves in Toe Block Well Screen with ICD Casing ICD Most reserves in Toe blockScreen Well āGravelā Casing
- 33. 33 New ICD Design to Control Flow Inflow is modified by changing the number of open ports at each screen ā¢ Many different ways have been patented. ā¢ This is just one way for this project. Image: Schlumberger Orifice restricts flow from wellbore to screen/formation Shroud Shroud removed for photo
- 34. New Technology ICD Solution Develop āFracā Rate Injection Control Device (ICD) ā¢ Can a contractor develop an ICD Screen w/over 5000 BWIPD of capacity? ā¢ Would only need ~ 5 ICD screens and have more control on injection Most reserves in Toe Block Well Screen with ICD Casing New ICD Never been done before and doesnāt currently exist! ā¢ Can Contractor Develop the new design in time for the project? How do you evaluate this option compared to the options?
- 35. Geology & Petrophysics Petroleum Engineer Economics (Marginal Development Costs) 35 Drilling (Limited Drillable Wellpath from Drill Center) Reservoir Engineer (Effective Sweep Required) Subsea (Trees, Controls, Pipelines) Completion (Lifecycle view of: Materials, Equipment, New Technology, Stimulation, Sand Face, Fluids, etc) An innovative ICD Decision might accommodate all these Drivers
- 36. Injector Evaluation ā Factors - 1 Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 5 is High Weighted Ranking The Team got together and discussed all of the factors and which were the most important These Discussions helped all the stakeholders to understand the tradeoffs with each completion design Note: Example only 36 What are the key factors?
- 37. Injector Evaluation ā Factors - 2 Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 5 is High Zonal Water Injection (Reserves) Cost Schedule Sand Control Installation Sensitivity (Two Fault Blocks) Weighted Ranking In a real analysis there may be many more factors. List them all, and then rank them all. In the end only the most important factors ā top 5-8 really matter. 37
- 38. Injector Evaluation - Factors Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 5 is High Zonal Water Injection (Reserves) 5 Cost 4 Schedule 3 Sand Control 2 Installation Sensitivity (Two Fault Blocks) 1 Weighted Ranking In the end only the most important factors ā top 5-8 really matter. Re-rank the top factors after the team agrees which ones will be used for the analysis 38
- 39. Injector Evaluation - Factors Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 5 is High Two Vertical OHGP One Hoizontal OHGP Horiz Convāl ICD New Frac ICD Zonal Water Injection (Reserves) 5 Cost 4 Schedule 3 Sand Control 2 Installation Sens. (Two Fault Blocks) 1 Weighted Ranking The Completion engineer provides the options. Usually these have been worked up before and there may be reservoir model evaluations, cost estimates, and schedules for each of these options to consider. 39 Hide the factors and Shuffle the Rows in an Actual Evaluation
- 40. Injector Evaluation - Factors Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 5 is High Two Vertical OHGP One Horizontal OHGP Horiz Convāl ICD New Frac ICD Zonal Water Injection (Reserves) 5 4 1 2 3 Cost 4 1 2 3 4 Schedule 3 1 4 3 2 Sand Control 2 4 1 3 2 Installation Sens. (Across Two Fault Blocks) 1 4 1 3 2 Weighted Ranking 39 28 40 43 Once they have been discussed the calculate the scores and determine if there is a ābestā option In this case three options appear similar but one has high costs and slow delivery schedule.
- 41. Injector Evaluation - Factors Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 5 is High Two Vertical OHGP One Horizontal OHGP Horiz Convāl ICD New Frac ICD Zonal Water Injection (Reserves) 5 1 2 3 Cost 4 1 2 3 Schedule 3 3 2 1 Sand Control 2 1 3 2 Installation Sens. (Two Fault Blocks) 1 1 3 2 Weighted Ranking 21 33 36 If, after discussion, one option should not be considered then drop it and rescore ----based on the prior scores i.e. 4 => 3, 3=>2, etc Do not change the numbers or allow the integrity of the original evaluation to be lost or modified 41
- 42. Injector Evaluation - Factors Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Two Vertical OHGP One Hoizontal OHGP Horiz Convāl ICD New Frac ICD Zonal Water Injection (Reserves) 5 1 2 3 Cost 4 1 2 3 Schedule 3 3 2 1 Sand Control 2 1 3 2 Installation (Two Fault Blocks) 1 1 3 2 Weighted Ranking 21 33 36 The best one required new technology but had the most upside on reserves and rates ā¢ This had to be worked harder to see if it was possibleā The other, lower option, used on conventional technology with more sensitivity to water quality and damage reserves
- 43. New Sand Face Injector Design 43Ref: SPE 136539 Shale SandstoneSandstone Water Swell Packer The Completion Team and Contractor developed a new Frac-Thru ICD Injector well design to meet everyoneās requirements ā Sufficient water injection in both zones (REās) ā Could be installed in complex well path (DE/CEās) ā Use existing Subsea Injection & Producer manifolds (SSEās) Multiple Frac ICDāsSingle Frac ICD
- 44. Offshore, Subsea, Example Completion Innovation effectively met needs of Reservoir sweep, Subsea infrastructure, and Drilling well paths to deliver a successful project quickly 44Ref: SPE 136539 Successfully Developed Both Fault Blocks ļ¼ Injected over 20k BWIPD at a sustained rate ļ¼ Produced 15k BOPD ļ¼ Saved $80mm+ in well and subsea costs ļ¼ Developed previously stranded reserves faster Injector Producer
- 45. Facility Engineer (Sand prod, emulsions) 45 Drilling (Horizontal Well, Multiple Wells) Reservoir Engineer (Depletion Plan) Geology & Petrophysics (Res Fluid & Rock Properties) Petroleum Engineer (Sand production Impacts, OPEX, Water Shut-Off, Interventions) Production Chemistry Completion (Lifecycle view of: Sand Face Completion, Stimulation, Completion Integrity, etc) Use of a rigorous process, leads to the best completion that addresses each disciplines business drivers
- 46. Onshore Example
- 47. Lets look at another Example You are considering using hydraulic rod pump system instead of conventional beam pump system Many different options are available but, for this case, you have not used hydraulic pump units in this field before ā it is new technology to this location, people, and wells 47
- 48. Hydraulic Rod Pump By YouTube user "derekdz" Conventional Beam Pump Hydraulic Pump Unit Hydraulic Pump Units Source: HRPI Source: NOV What are some of the key factors you might think about when choosing between these units?
- 49. Pad Construction Field Personnel (Competency, Operation, etc) Not a Simple Decision with all these Factors 49 Drilling (Well Design, Pad design, rig access, etc) Reservoir Engineer Petroleum Engineer (Production optimization, well work, etc) Completion (Well design, tubing wear, sand face completion, etc)
- 50. Technology Comparison - Factors Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Conv. Walking Beam Hyd Pump 1 Hyd Pump 2 Capital Cost Operating Cost Prod Flexibility Reliability/Up Time Pumper Management Contractor Capability Weighted Ranking To bring new technology into the field the Team gets together and discusses all of the factors that influence the decision and why they are important These Discussions helped all the stakeholders to understand the tradeoffs for each of the technology Note: Example only 50
- 51. Technology Comparison - Factors Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Conv. Walking Beam Hyd Pump 1 Hyd Pump 2 Capital Cost 6 OPEX / Well Work 5 Prod Flexibility 4 Reliability/Up Time 3 Pumper Management 2 Contractor Capability 1 Weighted Ranking Second, they rank the factors and decide which factors are most important in the selection These Discussions helped all the stakeholders to understand why some factors are more important than others Note: Example only 51
- 52. Technology Comparison - Factors Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Conv. Walking Beam Hyd Pump 1 Hyd Pump 2 Capital Cost 6 1 2 3 OPEX / Well Work 3 1 3 2 Prod Flexibility 5 3 1 2 Reliability/Up Time 4 3 2 1 Pumper Management 2 3 1 2 Contractor Capability 1 3 2 1 Weighted Ranking Third the team assesses each option against the factors to determine they rank the factors and decide which factors are most important in the selection Note: Hide the Importance ranking if necessary 52 Ignore (hide) Importance when Ranking
- 53. Technology Comparison - Factors Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Conv. Walking Beam Hyd Pump 1 Hyd Pump 2 Capital Cost 6 1 2 3 OPEX / Well Work 3 1 3 2 Prod Flexibility 5 A Given. They must have Flexibility. Reliability/Up Time 4 3 2 1 Pumper Management 2 3 1 2 Contractor Capability 1 3 2 1 Weighted Ranking Note: Donāt be afraid to identify key factors during the discussion and modify the assessment. In this case, the team identifies a property (production flexibility) that all the options must have or they are not even feasible 53 Ignore (hide) Importance when Ranking
- 54. Technology Comparison - Scoring Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Conv. Walking Beam Hyd Pump 1 Hyd Pump 2 Capital Cost 5 1 2 3 OPEX / Well Work 4 1 3 2 Prod Flexibility ---- A Given ā They must have flexibility Reliability/Up Time 3 3 2 1 Pumper Management 2 3 1 2 Contractor Capability 1 3 2 1 Weighted Ranking 27 =5*1+4*1+3*3+2*3+3*1 54 Finally, calculate the total score and see which option(s) score highest One item, Prod Flexibility, is dropped (in this example) and no score given for that row
- 55. Technology Comparison - Evaluation Finally, calculate the total score and see which option(s) score highest Note: Some of these scores really identify the challenges and risks that need to be managed for success ā¢ Up time, Pumper Management, Contractor Capability 55 Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Conv. Walking Beam Hyd Pump 1 Hyd Pump 2 Capital Cost 5 1 2 3 OPEX / Well Work 4 1 3 2 Prod Flexibility --- A Given ā They must have flexibility Reliability/Up Time 3 3 2 1 Pumper Management 2 3 1 2 Contractor Capability 1 3 2 1 Weighted Ranking 27 34 31
- 56. Technology Comparison ā Top Factors You can be flexible and drop the lower ranked evaluation factors. But you must be very careful not to change the rankings just to get the answer somebody else wants 56 Key Evaluation Factors Project Importance 4 is High Conv. Walking Beam Hyd Pump 1 Hyd Pump 2 Capital Cost 3 1 2 3 OPEX / Well Work 2 1 3 2 Prod Flexibility --- A Given ā They must have flexibility Reliability/Up Time 1 3 2 1 Pumper Management --- Low Rated Contractor Capability --- Low Rated Weighted Ranking 8 14 14
- 57. Conclusions ā¢ Completion Engineers help integrate various business drivers from each discipline to maximize value ā Completion Engineers manage the decision process during completion selection ā Other Disciplines can use this process to help their decision making for critical choices ā¢ Engagement of stakeholders a key function of this process ā Discussions and buy-in to the decision the real value ā¢ Interplay and Assessment of the various factors vary by context of the field/well ā¢ A review of some examples show how the process really works to improve decision making and deliver business value 57
- 58. Society of Petroleum Engineers Distinguished Lecturer Program www.spe.org/dl 58 Your Feedback is Important Enter your section in the DL Evaluation Contest by completing the evaluation form for this presentation : Click on: Section Evaluation
Editor's Notes
- Decision Matrix Analysis is the simplest form of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), also known as Multiple Criteria Decision Aid or Multiple Criteria Decision Management (MCDM). Sophisticated MCDA can involve highly complex modelling of different potential scenarios, using advanced mathematics. A lot of business decision making, however, is based on approximate or subjective data. Where this is the case, Decision Matrix Analysis may be all thatās needed. Methodology Decision Matrix Analysis helps you to decide between several options, where you need to take many different factors into account. To use the tool, lay out your options as Column Headings in a table. Set up the Rows to show the factors you need to consider. Weight the Evaluation Factors from Most Important (5) to Least Important (1). Force rank each option for each factor using the number of options from Worst (1) to Best (3). No ties are allowed. Multiply each score by the weight of the factor, to show its contribution to the overall selection. Finally add up the total scores for each option. The highest scoring option will be the best option. If there are a lot of factors to be considered evaluate them all but also look at the 3 or 4 most important to see which Option addresses those factors best.
- The most important aspect of this process is getting everyone to agree on the many factors and then select and agree to the most important factors for THIS decision.
- The options are simplified here but should be a short listā¦.not every car made in the world. But the real choices faced by this teamā¦
- The discussion is quite useful and should be kept professional and calm. This process allows for a neutral and fair evaluation that is transparent so everyone can see, and buy-in, and accept the final decision.
- In this case the minivan is best. But if we were evaluating buying a taxi or a race car the Evaluation could have been different. If you cange any of the Evaluation Factors you may get a different result. If there is a tie, or the answers are very close, it may suggest that there are more than one right answer and both maybe considered as options for the next round of evaluation.
- How many of Completion Decisions get made by the Completion Engineer (CE) without consulting anyone else? The CE realizes the most value for each well by working with each of the other development disciplines
- Decision Matrix Analysis is the simplest form of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), also known as Multiple Criteria Decision Aid or Multiple Criteria Decision Management (MCDM). Sophisticated MCDA can involve highly complex modelling of different potential scenarios, using advanced mathematics. A lot of business decision making, however, is based on approximate or subjective data. Where this is the case, Decision Matrix Analysis may be all thatās needed. Methodology Decision Matrix Analysis helps you to decide between several options, where you need to take many different factors into account. To use the tool, lay out your options as Column Headings in a table. Set up the Rows to show the factors you need to consider. Weight the Evaluation Factors from Most Important (5) to Least Important (1). Force rank each option for each factor using the number of options from Worst (1) to Best (3). No ties are allowed. Multiply each score by the weight of the factor, to show its contribution to the overall selection. Finally add up the total scores for each option. The highest scoring option will be the best option. If there are a lot of fractors to be considered evaluate them all but also look at the 3 or 4 most important to see which Option addresses those factors best.
- Getting Folks to Agree on a Priority Ranking is critical to selecting the right completion to deliver your most important evaluation factors i.e. business value drivers There may be many different factors that should be considered. Listt hem all and then rank them all. Finally select the most important factors and rank them again for (for example as shown 1 to 4)
- Completion engineer should have developed these before hand. They may have been evaluated in a reservoir model, drilling plan, costs, and schedules all of which is needed for a good discussion.
- Sand Prevention: Horiz OHGP has highest rating as a well executed GP has very little chance of failure. We found no failures in database. Vertical GP had some failures. Rate: Horiz GP gives the best chance to improve PI and maximize rate. WSO: Horiz GP the hardest to successfully shut-off water. Vertical C&P best. Contractor: Horiz GP can fail in execution and result in a standalone screen and a sand production. Picking the right contractor and system key to success. Vert C&P is less sensitive to contractors capability for all aspects.
- Simply add up the scores. Best score is optimum decision for this evaluation Ties means that 2 options are similar. Often look at the most important factors ātop threeā and see if any difference then.
- Decision Matrix Analysis is the simplest form of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), also known as Multiple Criteria Decision Aid or Multiple Criteria Decision Management (MCDM). Sophisticated MCDA can involve highly complex modelling of different potential scenarios, using advanced mathematics. A lot of business decision making, however, is based on approximate or subjective data. Where this is the case, Decision Matrix Analysis may be all thatās needed. Methodology Decision Matrix Analysis helps you to decide between several options, where you need to take many different factors into account. To use the tool, lay out your options as Column Headings in a table. Set up the Rows to show the factors you need to consider. Weight the Evaluation Factors from Most Important (5) to Least Important (1). Force rank each option for each factor using the number of options from Worst (1) to Best (3). No ties are allowed. Multiply each score by the weight of the factor, to show its contribution to the overall selection. Finally add up the total scores for each option. The highest scoring option will be the best option. If there are a lot of fractors to be considered evaluate them all but also look at the 3 or 4 most important to see which Option addresses those factors best.
- In the real analysis there were many more factors than this considered. This has been simplified for the presentation.
- Zonal water injection (conformance) was the most important factor. Each option must provide this to be considered. Cost on list due to the marginal nature of the project and big cost difference between options and impact on economics. Cost usually not on list. Schedule on list due to the big difference in timing between options. Schedule normally not on list. Sand control on list as important because of the unconsolidated nature of reservoir. Sand control had to be provided. Installation was on list due to the ability to install (reliably) in an uphill well across two fault blocks (for some options).
- Decision Matrix Analysis is the simplest form of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), also known as Multiple Criteria Decision Aid or Multiple Criteria Decision Management (MCDM). Sophisticated MCDA can involve highly complex modelling of different potential scenarios, using advanced mathematics. A lot of business decision making, however, is based on approximate or subjective data. Where this is the case, Decision Matrix Analysis may be all thatās needed. Methodology Decision Matrix Analysis helps you to decide between several options, where you need to take many different factors into account. To use the tool, lay out your options as Column Headings in a table. Set up the Rows to show the factors you need to consider. Weight the Evaluation Factors from Most Important (5) to Least Important (1). Force rank each option for each factor using the number of options from Worst (1) to Best (3). No ties are allowed. Multiply each score by the weight of the factor, to show its contribution to the overall selection. Finally add up the total scores for each option. The highest scoring option will be the best option. If there are a lot of fractors to be considered evaluate them all but also look at the 3 or 4 most important to see which Option addresses those factors best.
- One option, drilling two vertical wells, has the highest cost and slowest delivery. But is the best at the other factors. This analysis shows clearly that we could trade off cost and schedule and get an acceptable outcome.
- Elimanating any option after discussion is OK. Be flexible with the evaluation. But DO NOT lose integrity in the evaluation and change the numbers,.
- New Frac ICD allowed for fracture into the fault blocks and allowed the operator to bypass formation damage (skin) and inject at high rates to recover more oil faster. Conventional ICDs are matrix injection only and if damage occurs have very limited options to remove from well. The rate cannot be increased if required to change pressure support.
- Decision Matrix Analysis is the simplest form of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), also known as Multiple Criteria Decision Aid or Multiple Criteria Decision Management (MCDM). Sophisticated MCDA can involve highly complex modelling of different potential scenarios, using advanced mathematics. A lot of business decision making, however, is based on approximate or subjective data. Where this is the case, Decision Matrix Analysis may be all thatās needed. Methodology Decision Matrix Analysis helps you to decide between several options, where you need to take many different factors into account. To use the tool, lay out your options as Column Headings in a table. Set up the Rows to show the factors you need to consider. Weight the Evaluation Factors from Most Important (5) to Least Important (1). Force rank each option for each factor using the number of options from Worst (1) to Best (3). No ties are allowed. Multiply each score by the weight of the factor, to show its contribution to the overall selection. Finally add up the total scores for each option. The highest scoring option will be the best option. If there are a lot of fractors to be considered evaluate them all but also look at the 3 or 4 most important to see which Option addresses those factors best.