This document summarizes factors contributing to farmland loss among avocado growers in San Diego County, California. It discusses the region's historical growth and economic restructuring due to railroad expansion in the late 19th century and military buildup during World War 2. These events led to population increases that contributed to urban development and loss of over 186,000 acres of farmland between 2002 and 2012, with an annual loss of 8.42% in San Diego County. The document also notes that water access and costs are now major issues for avocado growers, as over 70% of the region's water comes from the Colorado River via the Metropolitan Water District.

1. Water Resources and Systems Resilience among Avocado
Growers in San Diego County, California
Riley Balikian
Illinois State Geological Survey
Urbana, IL
March 11, 2019
Aguacate

2. Overview
• Introduction
 Problem Statement
 Context in San Diego
• Methods & Approaches
• Local Perspectives: Grower Surveys & Stakeholder Interview
• Local Trends:
 Agricultural and Environmental
 Socioeconomic
 Water Resources
• Synthesis: Systems and Resilience

3. Introduction
Land in Orchards and Vineyards (2015)
Land formerly in orchards and vineyards (2005)

4. Land in Orchards and Vineyards (2015)
Land formerly in orchards and vineyards (2005)
It seems that almost all
avocado farmers are
giving up due to the
high price of water.
This out-weights all
other issues or
problems by an
extremely high level.
Avocado Grower
“

5. The Problem: Farmland loss
“Stumped” avocado trees in
northern San Diego County
Source: Del Prado Farms

6. Farmland Loss
• Since 1960, U.S. averages over a 1 million acres of farmland loss per
year
• Urban growth and development is not a threat to national food and
fiber production, but may reduce production of some high-value or
specialty crops
• Local governments generally do not develop adequate plans to manage
growth until it is too late to effectively channel development
Source: Heimlich & Anderson, 2012

7. Farmland Loss
Table 1. Annual Farmland Acres Lost
Total Acres in Farmland Total Acres Lost Avg Acres Lost
Annually, 2002-2012
% of Total Acreage Lost
Annually, 2002-20122002 2012 2002-2012
United States 938,279,056 914,527,657 -23,751,399 -2,375,140 -0.26%
California 27,589,027 25,569,001 -2,020,026 -202,003 -0.79%
Orange County 68,018 60,497 -7,521 -752 -1.24%
Ventura County 332,371 281,046 -51,325 -5,133 -1.83%
Los Angeles County 111,458 91,689 -19,769 -1,977 -2.16%
Riverside County 572,036 344,044 -227,992 -22,799 -6.63%
San Diego County 408,003 221,538 -186,465 -18,647 -8.42%
Source: USDA Census of Agriculture, 2002 & 20121

8. Farmland Loss
Table 1. Annual Farmland Acres Lost
Total Acres in Farmland Total Acres Lost Avg Acres Lost
Annually, 2002-2012
% of Total Acreage Lost
Annually, 2002-20122002 2012 2002-2012
United States 938,279,056 914,527,657 -23,751,399 -2,375,140 -0.26%
California 27,589,027 25,569,001 -2,020,026 -202,003 -0.79%
Orange County 68,018 60,497 -7,521 -752 -1.24%
Ventura County 332,371 281,046 -51,325 -5,133 -1.83%
Los Angeles County 111,458 91,689 -19,769 -1,977 -2.16%
Riverside County 572,036 344,044 -227,992 -22,799 -6.63%
San Diego County 408,003 221,538 -186,465 -18,647 -8.42%
Source: USDA Census of Agriculture, 2002 & 20121

9. -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
Acres Acres in Avocado (5-Year Avg)
Farmland Loss
Avocados
Source: SD County Dept of Agriculture Weights and Measures

10. What are the most important factors
contributing to farmland loss and shaping
the agricultural production system in San
Diego County?
Question

11. San Diego Context
Water Flume from Cuyamaca
Mountains to City of San
Diego, late 19th century
Source: San Diego History Center

12. Two events of importance for H20:
 Completion of railroad in 1887
 World War II and Military Buildup
Historical Context
Growth and Economic Restructuring
Image Sources: San Diego History Center; Wikimedia Commons

13. Historical Context
Growth and Economic Restructuring: Railroad and Settlement
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910
Population of San Diego (County and City)
San Diego City San Diego County
• Population of county grew from 8,600 in 1880 to 70,000 in 1887
• Drawn largely by marketers selling land and water in the region
Railroad Completed Source: San Diego History Center

14. With…
rich land, plenty of
water…
an entire absence of epidemic diseases, with
winters free from snow, ice, or killing frosts...where
can be grown in abundance oranges, lemons, olives,
grapes, guavas, berries, in fact all the fruits, both
large and small, of the temperate and semi-tropical
climate...with
everything in such
quantities as to make it
difficult for those who
have not seen, to believe
Junipero Land and Water Co., c.1887
Historical Context
Growth and Economic Restructuring: Railroad and Settlement
Photo Taken: 1830s
Photo Source: Englehardt, 1920
Source: San Diego History Center
“ “San Diego County…is
anything but inviting to
the settler
or tourist. Hard, gravelly table-lands, either barren or
clad with a dreary black brush, rolling hills of gravel
bristling with cactus and cobble-stones, stony slopes
scarred with gullies and washes, no tress, no streams, no
springs…
nowhere does [a visitor’s]
eyes rest upon anything
even suggestive of
farming or rural life”
TS Van Dyke, 1883
“

15. The lands without
water are worthless.
The water with no lands upon which to
use it would be valueless. Just what
rule of fairness or equity would
suggest that those who use their
money to develop and supply the water
which transforms these barren lands
into dividend-paying orchards should
not be allowed as much interest upon
their investment as if they had put the
money in to a savings bank, while the
parties who owned the lands should
have had the value of the same
increased twenty or thirty fold…
San Diego Flume Co.
Legal brief about increased water costs, 1920
Photo Taken: 1887
Photo Source: Strathman, 2004
Image Source: Lakeside Historical Society
“
Historical Context
Growth and Economic Restructuring: Railroad and Settlement

16. Historical Context
Growth and Economic Restructuring: World War II
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1834 1841 1848 1855 1862 1869 1876 1883 1890 1897 1904 1911 1918 1925 1932 1939 1946
Population of San Diego (County and City)
San Diego City San Diego County
• World War II led to a near-doubling of city and county population
• Transformed San Diego County into one of the largest military installments in the world
U.S. entry into WWII
Source: San Diego History Center; US Bureau of Census

17. Historical Context
Growth and Economic Restructuring: World War II
Construction of 2nd San Diego Aqueduct, 1957
First Colorado River Water flowing
into San Vicente Reservoir in San
Diego County, 1947
Source: Pourade, 1960
Image Source: San Diego County Water Authority
Creation of San Diego
County Water Authority
(SDCWA) in 1944
This extraordinary increase placed
a great strain on many community
facilities…An emergency impends
in the water supply of the city of
San Diego and surrounding
communities...The Colorado River
offers the only available source from
which an adequate, dependable
supplemental water supply can be
obtained for the area.
Memo from Bureau of Reclamation’s Assistant
Commissioner to Pres. Franklin Roosevelt,
1944
“

18. Current Context
Avocado groves on valley
sides in northern San Diego
Source: Google Earth
“Avocado acreage is not farmed in large contiguous sections…it adapts itself to
canyons and ridge tops and geography that isolates itself to frost-free areas
along a strip within California. Though this marginal land is classified by
USDA soil surveys in many cases as wasteland, growers can produce revenues
in excess of $10,000 per acre on land that is otherwise useless”
Rose, 1994

19. San Diego Co.
California
• Semi-Arid Climate
• Varied Physiography
• Geographic Isolation

20. Urbanized Areas
• Pop: 3.2 Million (5th largest)
• Area: 4,526 mi² (~ size of CT)
• Largest Metro Area in U.S.
contained entirely in one county
San Diego Co.
California

22. San Diego Co.
California
Agriculture Highlights
• 1st # of farms in U.S. (5,270)
 Also 1st in small farms (<10 acres)
• 19th largest farm economy in U.S.
• 2nd in guava, pomegranate, limes and macadamia
• 5th in lemons
• 9th in strawberries
• 10th in egg-laying hens
Source: USDA NASS, 2012; SD DAWM, 2014
Intensive Ag.
Orchards/Vineyards
Field Crops
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-9 10-49 50-179 180-499500-999 1000+
Farms by Size (acres)
United States
California
San Diego County

23. Avocados
• 37% of U.S. production of
avocados (42% of California)
• 31% of agriculture land in
San Diego County is in
avocados
Avocados:
18,439
Citrus (no
lemon):
12,605
Ornamental Trees and Shrubs: 5,303
Hay, Oat: 3,847
Lemons: 3,569
Tomatoes: 1,720
Pasture
(Irrigated):…
Bedding Plants,
Herbaceous
Perennials:…
Grapes: 923
Indoor Flowering
and Foliage Plants:
863
Other:
8,703
SD County Crops: Acreage
Source: USDA NASS, 2012; SD DAWM, 2014
San Diego Co.
California

25. Water Resources
• ~21% of water local sources
• “New” water sources
• More than 70% of water
from Colorado River
MWD 32%
Imperial Irr. Dist.
Transfer 22%
Canal Linings (All
American &
Coachella)
15%
Desalination 8% Recycled Water
5%
San Luis Rey
Transfer 4%
Groundwater
5%
Local Surface
Water 8%
San Diego Co.
California

26. Water Resources
• ~21% of water local sources
• “New” water sources
• More than 70% of water
from Colorado River
San Diego Co.
California
MWD 32%
Imperial Irr. Dist.
Transfer 22%
Canal Linings (All
American &
Coachella)
15%
Desalination 8% Recycled Water
5%
San Luis Rey
Transfer 4%
Groundwater
5%
Local Surface
Water 8%

27. Institutional Context
Water Institutions
Water Rights Regimes:
• Pueblo Rights
• Prior Appropriation Rights
• Riparian Rights
• Prescriptive Rights
• “Preferential Rights”

28. Conceptual Framework & Methods
Socioeconomic Drivers
Demographics, economics,
socio-political context,
cultural context, science &
technology
Environmental Drivers
Land Cover, soils, climate,
water availability/quality,
nutrient cycles, biodiversity
Environmental Feedbacks
Driver
Interactions
Food System Activities
Producing food, processing and
packaging food, distributing and retailing
food, consuming food
Food System Outcomes
Contribute to:
Socioeconomic Feedbacks
External Shocks
and Disturbances
Environmental
Welfare
Socio-
Economic
Welfare

29. Conceptual Framework
• Systems Theory
 Growers in San Diego County are part of a multi-scale food system with complex interactions and
feedback loops, a broad constellation of policies, and a regional political economy (IPES, 2015)
Socioeconomic Drivers
Demographics, economics,
socio-political context,
cultural context, science &
technology
Environmental Drivers
Land Cover, soils,
climate, water resources,
nutrient cycles,
biodiversity
Environmental Feedbacks
Driver
Interactions
Food System Activities
Producing food, processing and
packaging food, distributing and
retailing food, consuming food
Food System Outcomes
Contribute to:
Socioeconomic Feedbacks
Environmental
Welfare
Socio-
Economic
Welfare
Water
Resources
External Shocks
and
Disturbances

30. Conceptual Framework
• Resilience
 “Long persistence in the face of...major changes…without dramatically altering” (Holling,
1973)
 Capacity of a system to continually change and adapt yet remain within critical
thresholds (Folke, 2010)
 Adaptability “represents the capacity to adjust responses to changing
external drivers and internal processes and thereby allow for development
along the current trajectory,” (Folke, 2010)
 Transformability “the capacity to create a fundamentally new system when
ecological, economic, or social (including political) conditions make the
existing system untenable (Folke, 2010; Walker, 2004).
External
Shocks and
Disturbance
s
Adaptability Transformability
External
Shocks and
Disturbance
s

31. Conceptual Framework
• Problemshed Approach
 A system-encompassing approach that ensures
that the boundaries of policy and analysis are
defined by their true dimensions: temporal,
spatial, environmental, and institutional
(Viessman, 1998 )
Source: ESRI, GeoComm
Software: QGIS Lyon

32. Methods
“Research methods should follow research questions in a way that offers
the best chance to obtain useful answers”
Johnson & Onwuegbuzie, 2004
Mixed Methods
 Qualitative (stakeholder interviews and grower surveys)
 Quantitative (survey data and secondary data analysis)
 Archival (historical documents, reports, and literature)

33. Local Perspectives:
Grower Survey and Stakeholder Interviews
Avocado grower and industry
representative inspect avocado tree
Source: The Escondido Grapevine

34. Local Perspectives: Stakeholder Interview
• Interviews with representatives from several stakeholder groups
 Performed in-person or by phone
 Transcribed and “coded”
8Stakeholder interviews
8h 21mOf transcribed interviews
Interviewers represent:
• San Diego County Farm Bureau
• Valley Center Municipal Water District
• UC Extension: water resources
• UC Extension: avocado agronomy
• California Institute for Water Resources
• Metropolitan Water District of Southern California
• California Avocado Commission: Marketing
• California Avocado Commission: Executive (retired)

35. Local Perspectives: Grower Survey
• Surveys distributed online to growers in San Diego County
 Online link distributed by San Diego County Farm Bureau and University of
California Cooperative Extension
Table 2. Demographics of Survey Respondents
Demographic Parameter (n= 26) Survey USDA Census of Agriculture
Average Age of Operator (n=21) 60.3 62.3
Gender of Operator (n=22)
Male: 85%
Female: 15%
Male: 81%
Female: 19%
Principal Operators by Primary Occupation
(n=26)
Farming: 31%
Other: 69%
Farming: 48%
Other: 52%
Average size of avocado orchard (n = 21) [acres] 7.4 7.4
Average size of entire farm (n=24) [acres] 30.4 39
49Farmers total completed survey
26Of these farmers grew avocados

36. Table 7. Important Themes in Survey Responses
Question Survey Responses
What significant management
changes have you made to your farm
or orchard in the past decade or so?
(n = 20; answers listed in order of
importance)
1. Updated Irrigation System
2. Hired less labor
3. Planted/Pruned Trees Differently
4. Changed land use of part of farm/orchard away from agriculture (or sold to
someone who did)
5. Changed Pest Management Strategy
6. Changed crop
7. Switched to organic
What is the greatest challenge you
face in maintaining a viable farm?
(n = 26; answers listed in order of
importance)
1. High Price of Water
2. Drought or lack of water
3. Competition from Mexico
4. Poor Quality of Water
5. Low Market Prices for product
6. Policies and/or Regulations
7. Labor Costs
What is your greatest concern with
respect to the viability of your farm or
orchard in the…:
(n = 23; answers listed in order of
importance)
Short-term (1-5 yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Foreign competition
3. Regulation
4. Drought/Climate
5. Labor
6. Small profit margin
7. Water supply
Medium-term (5-10 yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Regulation
3. Foreign competition
4. Urban encroachment/
Land prices
5. Drought/Climate
6. Labor
Long-term (10+ yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Aging farmers
3. Foreign competition
4. Urban Encroachment/
Land prices
5. Lack of adaptability
6. Regulation
7. Drought/Climate
Local Perspectives: Grower Survey

37. Table 7. Important Themes in Survey Responses
Question Survey Responses
What significant management
changes have you made to your farm
or orchard in the past decade or so?
(n = 20; answers listed in order of
importance)
1. Updated Irrigation System
2. Hired less labor
3. Planted/Pruned Trees Differently
4. Changed land use of part of farm/orchard away from agriculture (or sold to
someone who did)
5. Changed Pest Management Strategy
6. Changed crop
7. Switched to organic
What is the greatest challenge you
face in maintaining a viable farm?
(n = 26; answers listed in order of
importance)
1. High Price of Water
2. Drought or lack of water
3. Competition from Mexico
4. Poor Quality of Water
5. Low Market Prices for product
6. Policies and/or Regulations
7. Labor Costs
What is your greatest concern with
respect to the viability of your farm or
orchard in the…:
(n = 23; answers listed in order of
importance)
Short-term (1-5 yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Foreign competition
3. Regulation
4. Drought/Climate
5. Labor
6. Small profit margin
7. Water supply
Medium-term (5-10 yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Regulation
3. Foreign competition
4. Urban encroachment/
Land prices
5. Drought/Climate
6. Labor
Long-term (10+ yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Aging farmers
3. Foreign competition
4. Urban Encroachment/
Land prices
5. Lack of adaptability
6. Regulation
7. Drought/Climate
Local Perspectives: Grower Survey
Water Resources

38. Table 7. Important Themes in Survey Responses
Question Survey Responses
What significant management
changes have you made to your farm
or orchard in the past decade or so?
(n = 20; answers listed in order of
importance)
1. Updated Irrigation System
2. Hired less labor
3. Planted/Pruned Trees Differently
4. Changed land use of part of farm/orchard away from agriculture (or sold to
someone who did)
5. Changed Pest Management Strategy
6. Changed crop
7. Switched to organic
What is the greatest challenge you
face in maintaining a viable farm?
(n = 26; answers listed in order of
importance)
1. High Price of Water
2. Drought or lack of water
3. Competition from Mexico
4. Poor Quality of Water
5. Low Market Prices for product
6. Policies and/or Regulations
7. Labor Costs
What is your greatest concern with
respect to the profitability/viability of
your farm or orchard in the…:
(n = 23; answers listed in order of
importance)
Short-term (1-5 yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Foreign competition
3. Regulation
4. Drought/Climate
5. Labor
6. Small profit margin
7. Water supply
Medium-term (5-10 yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Regulation
3. Foreign competition
4. Urban encroachment/
Land prices
5. Drought/Climate
6. Labor
Long-term (10+ yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Aging farmers
3. Foreign competition
4. Urban Encroachment/
Land prices
5. Lack of adaptability
6. Regulation
7. Drought/Climate
Local Perspectives: Grower Survey
Water Resources
Socio-Economic

39. Local Perspectives: Grower Survey
Table 7. Important Themes in Survey Responses
Question Survey Responses
What significant management
changes have you made to your farm
or orchard in the past decade or so?
(n = 20; answers listed in order of
importance)
1. Updated Irrigation System
2. Hired less labor
3. Planted/Pruned Trees Differently
4. Changed land use of part of farm/orchard away from agriculture (or sold to
someone who did)
5. Changed Pest Management Strategy
6. Changed crop
7. Switched to organic
What is the greatest challenge you
face in maintaining a viable farm?
(n = 26; answers listed in order of
importance)
1. High Price of Water
2. Drought or lack of water
3. Competition from Mexico
4. Poor Quality of Water
5. Low Market Prices for product
6. Policies and/or Regulations
7. Labor Costs
What is your greatest concern with
respect to the profitability/viability of
your farm or orchard in the…:
(n = 23; answers listed in order of
importance)
Short-term (1-5 yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Foreign competition
3. Regulation
4. Drought/Climate
5. Labor
6. Small profit margin
7. Water supply
Medium-term (5-10 yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Regulation
3. Foreign competition
4. Urban encroachment/
Land prices
5. Drought/Climate
6. Labor
Long-term (10+ yrs)
1. Water costs
2. Aging farmers
3. Foreign competition
4. Urban Encroachment/
Land prices
5. Lack of adaptability
6. Regulation
7. Drought/Climate
Water Resources
Environmental/Biophysical
Socio-Economic

40. Local Trends: Agronomic and Environmental
Aerial view of Avocado
groves in San Diego
Source: Google Earth

41. • “Irrigation strategies have reduced water usage.”
• “I am looking for alternative crops while turning the water
off avocados and other non profitable crops”
• “Converting of crops, more wells, existing wells going deeper”
• “Large groves are shifting to closer spacing. Grove owners
are shutting off the water on their groves. Farmers are
seeking crops that use less water: grapes; hothouse/nursery.”
Local Perspectives: Grower Survey
What trends have you observed in San Diego County’s agricultural sector?
Agronomic and Environmental

42. Local Perspectives: Grower Survey
What trends have you observed in San Diego County’s agricultural sector?
Agronomic and Environmental
• Dense Planting and New Growing Techniques
• Rethinking water management
• Alternative Crops

43. Local Trends: Agronomic and Environmental
Dense Planting and New Growing Techniques

44. Local Trends: Agronomic and Environmental
Rethinking water management
• California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS)
 Escondido Station has been active since 1890
• Reference Crop Evapotranspiration (ET0)
 Measured for different time-steps and for different climates
 Daily ET0 at Escondido station = 0.15 inches (monthly 4.5 inches)
• Crop Coefficient (KC)
 Multiplied by ET0 to estimate ET of crop at a given location
 Kc of avocados = 0.5 - 0.75 (0.64 found in recent study)
𝐸𝑇𝐶 = 𝐸𝑇0 × 𝐾𝐶

45. For avocado orchard near
Escondido, CA:
 Water Need
 Per acre: 3.98 acre-feet per year
 Per average grove: 29.5 acre-feet per year
 Precipitation:
 Per Acre: 0.7 acre-feet per year
 Per average grove: 5.1 acre-feet per year
17%Of water need met by precipitation for
average avocado grove near Escondido, CA
24.4 acre-feet deficit
Local Trends: Agronomic and Environmental
Rethinking water management

46. • Several different climate zones in San Diego County
• Most growing happens in foothills of Cuyamaca and
Laguna Mountains
 Slope-face orientation
 Elevation
 Location in Valley
• Cold Air Drainage Inversion
 Cold air settles in valleys, warm air rises along mountainsides
 1-2o F colder in valley floors
• ET and precipitation variations within county
0
2
4
6
8
ET (inches/month)
Escondido Torrey Pines
Local Trends
Rethinking water management

47. “Farmers are starting to plant drought-tolerant crops like dragon fruit, olives, wine grapes,
…to replace more thirsty crops like avocados and citrus. This shift could change our
agricultural landscape in the years ahead, boosting the current vineyards and wineries that
have become popular destinations to spend the day”
County of San Diego DAWM, 2014
Local Trends: Agronomic and Environmental
Alternative Crops

48. Local Trends: Socioeconomic
Avocados in San Diego area
Whole Foods Market
Image Source: KPBS San Diego

49. Local Perspectives: Grower Survey
What trends have you observed in San Diego County’s agricultural sector?
Socio-Economic
Small growers like myself can't make money consistently even using well water”
Government policies are not favoring farmers as to land use, pesticide and
fertilizer use, marketing, water regulation and quality.
Avocado farming is finished in San Diego County except for those who need tax
write-off against other income.
More government restrictions…Mexico has virtually flooded the market and
driven the crop value to less than the cost of production in San Diego county.
…all this is good, but it has not been determined if new techniques can overcome
the change in basic economics.
“
“
“
“
“

50. Table 8. Survey results: policies helping and hurting agriculture in San Diego County
In maintaining a viable farm in San Diego County, especially over the past decade, what policies, incentives,
regulations, or other programs have been: (n = 20)
Most helpful # of Responses Least Helpful
SAWR/Local water cost abatement 6 6
High water prices, No water cost abatement,
irrationality
“Nothing” 5 6 Water quality regulation
Water Recycling 3 4 Government regulation
Grants (USDA) 3 3 Lack of water/Rationing of water
Water Storage/Conservation 2 1 Organic Certification is costly
UC Cooperative Extension 2 1 Marijuana illegal
Boutique winery Ordinance 1 1 Bureaucracy
Water management (SDCWA & County) 1 1 Better water management needed at state level
Water Audits 1 1 Pests associated with imports
Energy Conservation 1 1 San Diego County Dept. of Fish and Game
Reduction of Permitting/Regulation 1 1 Taxes
Right to farm 1 1 Pesticide regulation
Strong Market Demand 1 1 Labor laws
Local Perspectives: Grower Survey

51. Socioeconomic Trends
• Taxation (Tax Reform Act of 1969)
• Proposition 13
• Free Trade and International Markets

52. Socioeconomic Trends
Tax Reform Act of 1969
The assets involved [i.e., non-
citrus orchards] require several
years to mature and, during the
pre-operation period, the
development costs such as water,
fertilizer, cultivation, pruning
and spraying may be deducted
as ordinary expenses of the
business.
Davenport, 1971
• Previous to 1969, a tax loophole had existed for
citrus orchards
 Write-off for orchard development costs
 Intended to help farmers with uncertain income
cycles invest in farm
 Provision for citrus removed in 1969
• Little demand for avocados (not a well known
fruit outside of California)
• Cost of development of one acre of:
 Avocado $4,395 per year
 Apples $1,745 per year
 Almonds $1,255 per year
“

53. Special farm tax provisions,
especially…deduction of orchard
development costs, provided
significant development
incentives” for avocado groves in
San Diego County
Carman, 1981
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
Acres in Avocados in San Diego County
Socioeconomic Trends
Tax Reform Act of 1969
“

54. Socioeconomic Trends
Proposition 13
• Amendment to California Constitution in 1978
• Proposition 13 (“The People’s Initiative to Limit Property Taxation”)
 Capped the amount that property taxes could be raised
 Untethered property taxes from rising land values
 Restricted property taxes from use by special districts

55. Socioeconomic Trends
Proposition 13
“Originally, most of the water system construction and
operational costs in the early days – in the early days of the
formation of those agencies – was funded primarily with tax
revenue…”
“…At one time, Valley Center Municipal Water District paid for
80 of 90% of its cost…off of property tax. But over time, as we
sold more water and Prop 13 comes in, then the district offset
those lost property taxes by increasing water rates.”
Water District Representative

56. Average Land Value in 25 Largest Metro Areas
Source: American Enterprise Institute
Average Increase in Land Values in Ten Most Expensive Metro Areas
Socioeconomic Trends
Proposition 13
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
1984Q4
1985Q4
1986Q4
1987Q4
1988Q4
1989Q4
1990Q4
1991Q4
1992Q4
1993Q4
1994Q4
1995Q4
1996Q4
1997Q4
1998Q4
1999Q4
2000Q4
2001Q4
2002Q4
2003Q4
2004Q4
2005Q4
2006Q4
2007Q4
2008Q4
2009Q4
2010Q4
2011Q4
2012Q4
2013Q4
2014Q4
2015Q4
2016Q4
2017Q4
San Francisco Chicago San Diego
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000

57. • Proposition 13 cut off funding of special districts
• Large drop in funds for water district(s) (SDCWA)
• Proposition 13 subsidies did not benefit San Diego
farmers like it did others in the county
• Relatively small subsidy for farmers
Socioeconomic Trends
Proposition 13

58. Free Trade
• 1914 - Mexican avocados banned because of pests
• 1985 – USDA import regulation enabling certain varieties (not from Mexico) to be important if able to meet highest
grade (50 FR § 944.28)
• 1993 – Mexican avocados allowed to be imported into limited markets (e.g., Alaska)
• 1994 – Hass avocados from Mexican state of Michoacán allowed into 12 Northeastern states
• 1994-1997 – Discussions about Hass avocado importation from Mexico
 Less than a year after NAFTA, less than a month after Mexico made import request
• 1997 – Avocados from Michoacán allowed to be imported in winter months in 19 Northeastern states
• 2000 – Hass Avocado Board and national avocado marketing boards established (7 CFR §7804)
• 2001 – Avocados from Michoacán allowed to be imported for 2 additional months and to 12 additional states
• 2007 – “Fresh Hass variety avocados (Persea americana) may be imported from Michoacán,
Mexico…into and distributed in all States and in Puerto Rico (7 CFR §319.56-30)
Socioeconomic Trends
Free Trade and the International Market
IncreasingImports

59. The decision by the federal government to modify and change
the regulations governing the import of avocados was a
statement by the federal government that free trade trumps
protection of domestic agriculture
Personal Communication, industry representative
“…nobody knew what [an avocado] was…That’s changed over the last generation,
and in large part because Mexico. And—this is a critical point—the import of
Mexican avocados made avocados affordable throughout the year. Up until that
time...supply of avocados in the United States was dependent upon the crop cycle
in California…With the addition of Mexican avocados, you have basically a very
stable price throughout the year. So there was a certain level of complementary
dynamic going on to make that work. As much as we didn’t want the competition,
we found that there were some distinct advantages to having Mexico in the mix.
Personal Communication, industry representative
Socioeconomic Trends
Free Trade and the International Market

60. Volume of Hass Avocados Produced for U.S. Markets (Pounds), 2005-2018 (3-yr avg)
Sources: Hass Avocado Board
Socioeconomic Trends
Free Trade and the International Market
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
California Mexico Chile Dom. Rep. New Zea. Peru

61. Local Trends: Water Resources
San Vicente Dam
Source: Times of San Diego

62. Local Perspectives: Grower Survey
Increasing government regulations and high water prices are making small
farms impossible
Water prices continue to increase…
Development of recycled water for ag…Water sold to ag at near retail rates/no
significant ag rate and increased water costs. Salty water as more of the
supply comes from Colorado river vs NorCal. …Greater Environmental
concerns over use of chemicals….Increased Storm water regulations.
Farmers are leaving, shutting off the water. Upward pressure on costs,
downward pressure on revenue. Farmers are trying denser plantings, salt
tolerant root stocks, root rot resistant root stock, drip irrigation- all this is
good, but it has not been determined if these new techniques can overcome the
change in basic economics.
What trends have you observed in San Diego County’s agricultural sector?
Water
“
“
“
“

63. Local Trends
Water Availability and Affordability
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index, South Coast California Climate Division: 1895-2018
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

64. Local Trends
Water Availability and Affordability
Source: US Bureau of Reclamation
980
1030
1080
1130
1180
1230
1280
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Drought I Drought II Drought III Drought IV Water Level (Ft elevation)

65. Local Trends
Water Availability and Affordability
Source: US Bureau of Reclamation
Source: Google Earth Engine

66. Local Trends
Water Quality Regulation
• Water Runoff Regulation:
 2007 Resolution by the San Diego Regional Water Quality Control Board
 “Amendment to the water quality control plan for the San Diego Basin”
 Previously allowed for waivers for annual water quality monitoring for agricultural
operations
“The proposed amendment will not result in any additional
economic burden for dischargers...
…except for…discharges from agricultural and nursery operations”
San Diego Regional Water Quality Control Board, 2007

67. Local Trends
Water Availability and Affordability
Water Rates, 2008-2018: Agricultural Cost per Acre-Foot in Three Example Water Districts
Rates in 2019 Dollars
Sources: Fallbrook Public Utility District; Valley Center Municipal Water District; City of Escondido
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Escondido Fallbrook Valley Center
Table 10. Water Rates in 2008 and 2018, per acre-foot
Water District
Water Rate,
2008
Water Rate,
2018
% Increase
Fallbrook PUD $590 $1,345 128%
Valley Center MWD $722 $1,528 112%
Escondido Utilities $853 $1,274 49%
Average $722 $1,432 96%
Note: These rates only represent the usage rates at the Special Agricultural Water Rate and do
not include separate fees such as an infrastructure access charge; all values are real 2019 U.S.
Dollars

68. Synthesis: Systems Resilience
Socioeconomic
Drivers
Demographics, economics,
socio-political context,
cultural context, science &
technology
Environmental
Drivers
Land Cover, soils, climate,
water availability/quality,
nutrient cycles, biodiversity
Environmental Feedbacks
Driver
Interactions
Food System Activities
Producing food, processing and
packaging food, distributing and retailing
food, consuming food
Food System Outcomes
Contribute to:
Socioeconomic Feedbacks
External Shocks
and Disturbances
Environmental
Welfare
Socio-
Economic
Welfare

69. -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
Acres Acres in Avocado (5-Year Avg)
Farmland Loss
Avocados
1947
Colorado River water
first makes it to San
Diego County
1986-1991
Widespread drought
and water shortage
in San Diego
1999-2019
Sporadic water
shortages
2007-2009
Great Recession
2012-2019
Drought
1978
Proposition 13
enacted
1969
Major orchard-
related tax law goes
into effect
2007
Avocado imports from Mexico
allowed to all 50 states

70. Table 11. Subsystem Components in the San Diego County Agricultural Production System
Subsystem Components of Subsystem
Economic
 Cluster of agricultural institutions
 Free trade and imports
 Urban Proximity
Agronomic
 Novel techniques/technologies
 Use of marginal land and soil
 Value-Added and High Value Crops (organic)
 Crop diversity
 Part-time farmers
Water Resources
 SDCWA
 Layering of special districts (including water districts)
 Diversification of water supplies/import dependence
Biophysical
 Temperature and climate
 Avocado Ecophysiology
 Drought
Social-Political
 Proposition 13
 Local autonomy, home rule and “end of pipeline” syndrome.
 Large problemshed
Systems Resilience

71. • Institutions in San Diego County (or neighboring counties):
 San Diego County Farm Bureau
 California Avocado Society
 California Avocado Commission
 San Diego County Vintners Association
 San Diego County Flower and Plant Association
 San Diego Department of Agriculture Weights and Measures
 California Certified Organic Growers
 California Cut Flowers Commission
 University of California Cooperative Extension
 Calavo
 Packing Houses: Del Rey Avocados, Henry Avocados
 Hass Avocado Board
 And others…
Building Resilient Systems
Agricultural Cluster

72. • Economic cluster: “the geographic concentration of firms related by knowledge,
skills, inputs, demand, and other linkages” (Delgado, Porter, & Stern, 2015)
• Can be measured by metric called Location Quotient (LQ)
Location Quotient (LQ) =
𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦 𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
If LQ = 1, then industry is average
LQ>1 industry cluster (especially if LQ>2)
Agriculture LQ in San Diego County = 1.44
9th strongest industry in San Diego County (top 10% of industries in county)
Building Resilient Systems
Agricultural Cluster

73. MWD
95% MWD
84%
MWD
79%
MWD
53%
MWD
57%
MWD
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1991 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018
MWD Local Surface Water
All American/Cochella Canal Lining IID Water Transfer
Recycled Water Desalination
Groundwater Potable Reuse (projected)
Conservation
Sources: SDCWA, 1991, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2018
MWD 32%
Imperial Irr. Dist.
Transfer 22%
Canal Linings (All
American &
Coachella)
15%
Desalination 8%
Recycled Water
5%
San Luis Rey
Transfer 4%
Groundwater
5%
Local Surface
Water 8%
Building Resilient Systems
Water Source Diversification

74. Hass Avocado Sales in the United States, 2004-2019
Sources: Hass Avocado Board
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
AvocadoArrivals(lbs)
Avocado Arrivals to Market by Source
California Mexico Total Volume in Pounds
Building Resilient Systems
Avocados from Mexico

75. Sources: Hass Avocado Board
Building Resilient Systems
Avocados from Mexico

76. Building Resilient Systems
Alternative Crops
• The Boutique Winery Ordinance
• Passed in August 2010
• Primary component of creating a “Boutique Winery” tier in the zoning ordinance
• Allowed for tasting rooms in conjunction with ongoing agricultural vineyard operations
Boutique Winery Ordinance, 2010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Acres in Avocados Acres in Wine Grapes

77. • “Farming contributes to the food chain, life style, desirability, fire control
and security of an area (because it makes the area self sufficient). / San
Diego has so ignored its agricultural sector to focus on urbanization that
farmers have quit, left or are contemplating leaving. Once it is gone, it will
be very difficult to get back.”
• “We are in the midst of a transition to new crops. Avocado & cut flower
acreage is declining and in some instances moving into novel smaller crops
which include boutique wineries and other agrotourism opportunities. Also
see continued increase in high value nursery. New wave is local food
movement and the infancy of hydro/aquaponics.”
• “Farming is difficult especially when faced with offshore competition that
has lower labor and other input costs. We don't live in an economic vacuum
but our elected seem to think that we do.”
Conclusion and Synthesis
What trends have you observed in San Diego County’s agricultural sector?

78. Table 12. Behavior-Based Indicators of Resilience for Agroecosystems
Theme Description Example from San Diego County
Socially Self-organized Degree to which farmers, consumers, and other stakeholders can organize themselves  Cluster of Agricultural Institutions
 San Diego County Home Rule
 SDCWA
Ecologically Self-regulated Maintenance of a system within a certain range of variability or within a certain
domain of attraction as an output of regulating ecosystem services
 Perennially good weather (Hardiness zone 10/11)
 Lack of diversity in avocado varieties grown
 Lack of adequate local water sources
 Marginal lands
 Pest introduction
Appropriately connected Dynamic relationships between elements within a system and between systems across
spatial and temporal scales.
 Access to urban and international markets, and labor
 Cluster of agricultural institutions
 Free trade and foreign imports
 Imported water dependence
 Educational resources stretched
High degree of functional and
response diversity
Functional diversity is the variety of elements and ecosystem services they provide
within the SES; Response diversity is diversity of responses to change among
components contributing to same ecosystem function
 Cluster of agricultural institutions
 Growing diversity of agronomic techniques
 Layering of special districts (including water districts)
 Lack of diversity avocado varieties grown
 Lack of adequate local water sources
Optimally Redundant The presence of superfluous units that have some degree of functional overlap within
the system. This overlap serves as a buffer against risk and shocks; redundant systems
are more capable of transformation and persistence
 Layering of special districts (including water districts)
 Free trade and foreign imports
 Cluster of agricultural institutions
 Regional Water Quality Control Board
 Lack of adequate local water sources
 Lack of educational institutions
High degree of spatial and
temporal heterogeneity
Lack of uniformity across the landscape and through time. A system with
heterogeneous patterns of land use and crops varieties over time is more resilient
against future changes
 High degree of environmental heterogeneity
 Adaptive development over time
 Decreasing land available for agricultural use
 Climate change effects
Carefully exposed to
disturbance
Disturbance releases resources that were sequestered or bound up so other components
can take advantage of them while forming new configurations; disturbance loosens
rigidity.
 Repeated shocks
 Growing diversity of agronomic techniques
 Water supply diversification
 Large shocks
 Lack of control over entire problemshed
Responsibly coupled with
local natural capital
SESs should begin to live within the means of the local resource base; this must be done
responsibly, not to the point of causing ecosystem collapse
 Perennially good weather (Hardiness zones 10/11)
 Avocados adapted for growth on slopes
 Water supply diversification
 Lack of adequate local water sources
 Marginal lands
Reflected and shared learning The ability to learn from past experiences and share knowledge allows actors in the
system to anticipate the future based on experience rather than simply react to present
conditions.
 Cluster of agricultural institutions
 Access to urban and international markets, and labor
 Water Supply diversification
 Educational resources stretched
 Part-time growers
Globally autonomous and
locally interdependent
A system has autonomy from exogenous (global) influences and exhibits high level of
cooperation among institutions at the more local level
 Relative isolation/“End of pipeline” syndrome
 Large single units of governance
 Free trade and foreign imports
Honors legacy while investing
in the future
The system’s history largely determines its future; legacy is important for continuity as
system goes through changes; can be used to build resilience
 High value and value-added crop (organic)
 Water supply diversification
 Urban development patterns
 Federal investment
Builds human capital Human capital is built upon social resources such as knowledge, skills, and experience,
mobilized through social relationships and membership networks
 Cluster of agricultural institutions
 Relative isolation/“End of pipeline” syndrome
 Educational resources stretched
 Part-time growers
Reasonably profitable Farmers should be able to make a livelihood from their efforts while acting as stewards
of the land
 High value and value-added crop (organic)
 High water costs
 Proposition 13
Source: Based on Cabell, J., & Oelofse, M. (2012). An Indicator Framework for Assessing Agroecosystem Resilience. Ecology and Society, 17(1), 18.
Note: Green indicates components that contribute to indicator; Red indicates components that detract from indicator; Black indicates components that are neutral or have both effects

79. Table 12. Behavior-Based Indicators of Resilience for Agroecosystems
Theme Description Example from San Diego County
Socially Self-organized Degree to which farmers, consumers, and other stakeholders can organize themselves  *Cluster of Agricultural Institutions
 San Diego County Home Rule
 SDCWA
Ecologically Self-regulated Maintenance of a system within a certain range of variability or within a certain
domain of attraction as an output of regulating ecosystem services
 Perennially good weather (Hardiness zone 10/11)
 Marginal lands
 *Lack of diversity in avocado varieties grown
 *Lack of adequate local water sources
 Pest introduction
Appropriately connected Dynamic relationships between elements within a system and between systems across
spatial and temporal scales.
 Access to urban and international markets, and labor
 *Cluster of agricultural institutions
 Free trade and foreign imports
 *Lack of adequate local water sources
 *Educational resources stretched
High degree of functional and
response diversity
Functional diversity is the variety of elements and ecosystem services they provide
within the SES; Response diversity is diversity of responses to change among
components contributing to same ecosystem function
 *Cluster of agricultural institutions
 *Growing diversity of agronomic techniques
 *Layering of special districts (including water districts)
 *Lack of diversity avocado varieties grown
 *Lack of adequate local water sources
Optimally Redundant The presence of superfluous units that have some degree of functional overlap within
the system. This overlap serves as a buffer against risk and shocks; redundant systems
are more capable of transformation and persistence
 *Layering of special districts (including water districts)
 Free trade and foreign imports
 *Cluster of agricultural institutions
 Regional Water Quality Control Board
 *Lack of adequate local water sources
 *Lack of educational institutions
High degree of spatial and
temporal heterogeneity
Lack of uniformity across the landscape and through time. A system with
heterogeneous patterns of land use and crops varieties over time is more resilient
against future changes
 High degree of environmental heterogeneity
 *Growing diversity of agronomic techniques
 *Decreasing land available for agricultural use
 Climate change effects
Carefully exposed to
disturbance
Disturbance releases resources that were sequestered or bound up so other components
can take advantage of them while forming new configurations; disturbance loosens
rigidity.
 Repeated shocks
 *Growing diversity of agronomic techniques
 *Water supply diversification
 Large shocks
 Lack of control over entire problemshed
Responsibly coupled with
local natural capital
SESs should begin to live within the means of the local resource base; this must be done
responsibly, not to the point of causing ecosystem collapse
 Perennially good weather (Hardiness zones 10/11)
 *Growing diversity of agronomic techniques
 *Water supply diversification
 Marginal lands
 *Lack of adequate local water sources
Reflected and shared learning The ability to learn from past experiences and share knowledge allows actors in the
system to anticipate the future based on experience rather than simply react to present
conditions.
 *Cluster of agricultural institutions
 *Access to urban and international markets, and labor
 *Water Supply diversification
 *Educational resources stretched
 *Part-time growers
Globally autonomous and
locally interdependent
A system has autonomy from exogenous (global) influences and exhibits high level of
cooperation among institutions at the more local level
 Relative isolation/“End of pipeline” syndrome
 *Large single units of governance
 Free trade and foreign imports
Honors legacy while investing
in the future
The system’s history largely determines its future; legacy is important for continuity as
system goes through changes; can be used to build resilience
 *High value and value-added crop (organic)
 *Water supply diversification
 *Urban development patterns
 Federal investment
Builds human capital Human capital is built upon social resources such as knowledge, skills, and experience,
mobilized through social relationships and membership networks
 *Cluster of agricultural institutions
 Relative isolation/“End of pipeline” syndrome
 *Educational resources stretched
 *Part-time growers
Reasonably profitable Farmers should be able to make a livelihood from their efforts while acting as stewards
of the land
 *High value and value-added crop (organic)
 High water costs
 Proposition 13
Source: Based on Cabell, J., & Oelofse, M. (2012). An Indicator Framework for Assessing Agroecosystem Resilience. Ecology and Society, 17(1), 18.
Note: Green indicates components that contribute to indicator; Red indicates components that detract from indicator; White indicates components that are neutral or have both effects

80. The County of San Diego needs to
decide if they want to have avocado
farms…If they do, they need to provide
economic relief for the price of water
somehow. If not, they should change the
zoning to allow us to sell off some of the
land to subsidize the cost of water on
the remainder of the land which would
remain planted. This whole situation is
a man-made economic disaster…which
is similar to a natural disaster in impact
to the poor who work the farms and
orchards.”
Conclusion and Synthesis
What trends have you observed in San Diego County’s agricultural sector?
It seems that almost all
avocado farmers are giving
up due to the high price of
water. This out-weights all
other issues or problems
by an extremely high
level.”
“ “
External
Shocks and
Disturbance
s
Adaptability
Transformability
External
Shocks and
Disturbance
s

81. Thank you!
Aguacate
Water Resources and Systems Resilience
among Avocado Growers in San Diego
County, California

82. Supplementary Slides

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A Planting Plan for Avocados. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://ceventura.ucanr.edu/Com_Ag/Subtropical/Avocado_Handbook/Horticulture/A_planting_plan_for_avocados_/
Avocado Import Grade Regulations, 50 FR § 944.28 (1985).
Bender, G., & Faber, B. (2013). Irrigation, Deailng with Salinity. In G. Bender (Ed.), Avocado Production in Califorina: A Cultural Handbook for Growers (Vol. 2). UC Cooperative Extension; California Avocado Society. Retrieved from http://ucanr.edu/sites/alternativefruits/files/166825.pdf
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Costa, J., & California Avocado Commission. Bill Analysis, § Senate Committee On Agriculture and Water Resources (1995). Sacramento.
County of San Diego Department of Agriculture Weights and Measures. (2006). County of San Diego Crop Statistics and Annual Report (Annual Report). San Diego, CA.
Davenport, C. (1971). Farm Losses Under the Tax Reform Act of 1969: Keepin’ ’Em Happy Down on the Farm. B.C. Law Review, 12(3). Retrieved from http://lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu/bclr/vol12/iss3/2
Delgado, M., Porter, M. E., & Stern, S. (2015). Defining Clusters of Related Industries. Journal of Economic Geography.
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Hass Avocado Board. (2016). Hass Avocado Board Retail Volume and Price Data. Retrieved from http://www.hassavocadoboard.com/retail/volume-and-price-data
Hass Avocado Promotion, Research, and Information Act 7 CFR §7804 (2001).
Hass Avocados from Michoacán, Mexico, 7 CFR §319.56-30 (2007).
Heimlich, R. E., & Anderson, W. D. (2012). Development at the Urban Fringe and Beyond: Impacts on Agriculture and Rural Land. Economic Research Service. Retrieved from http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/536851/aer803_1_.pdf
Holling, C. S. (1973). Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1–23.
International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems. (2015). The New Science of Sustainable Food Systems: Overcoming Barriers to Food Systems Reform (No. 1). Retrieved from http://www.ipes-food.org/images/Reports/IPES_report01_1505_web_br_pages.pdf
Johnson, R. B., & Onwuegbuzie, A. J. (2004). Mixed Methods Research: A Research Paradigm Whose Time has Come. Educational Researcher, 33(7), 14–26.
Kochitzky, C. S., Frumkin, H., Rodriguez, R., Dannenberg, A. L., Rayman, J., Rose, K., & Kanter T. (2006). Urban Planning and Public Health at the CDC (MMWR: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report No. 55) (pp. 34–38). Atlanta, GA: CDC.
NRCS. (n.d.). Prime Farmlands Definitions. Washington, DC: USDA.
Pourade, R. F. (1960). A Boom Nobody Would Believe. In The History of San Diego. San Diego, CA: San Diego Union-Tribune.
Rose, L. (1994). The Threat From Without: St. George (Science) vs. Dragon (Politics). California Avocado Society Yearbook, 78, 39–42.
San Diego County Water Authority. (2016). Seawater Desalination (Diversification Enhancing Water Supply Reliability). San Diego, CA. Retrieved from http://www.sdcwa.org/sites/default/files/desal-carlsbad-fs-single.pdf
San Diego History Center. (2015). San Diego City and County Population from US Census Bureau. Retrieved from https://www.sandiegohistory.org/sandiegopopulation-htm/
Schaffer, B., Gil, P. M., Mickelbart, M. V., & Whiley, A. W. (2012). Ecophysiology. In B. Schaffer (Ed.), The Avocado: Botany Production and Uses (2nd ed.). CAB International.
SDCWA. (n.d.-a). SDCWA History. Retrieved from http://www.sdcwa.org/history
SDCWA. (n.d.-b). SDCWA Imported Supplies. Retrieved from http://www.sdcwa.org/imported-supplies
SDCWA. (n.d.-c). SDCWA Member Agencies. Retrieved from http://www.sdcwa.org/member-agencies
State Water Resources Control Board. (2013). California Water Boards Fact Sheet. Sacramento, CA. Retrieved from http://www.swrcb.ca.gov/publications_forms/publications/factsheets/docs/region_brds.pdf
Stember, M. (1991). Advancing the Social Sciences through the Interdisciplinary Enterprise. The Social Science Journal, 28(1), 1–14.
The Boutique Winery Ordinance, § 1205.e (2010). Retrieved from http://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/dplu/docs/POD_08-012_Final_Ordinance.pdf
The Constitution of California.
Timeline of San Diego History. (2015). Retrieved from http://www.sandiegohistory.org/timeline/timeline.htm
United States Department of Agriculture. (2001). Proposed Rule for Mexican Hass Avocado Import Program Expansion (Final Environmental Assessment). Washington, DC. Retrieved from https://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant_health/ea/downloads/hass.pdf
United States Department of Agriculture. (2012). Census of Agriculture County Profile: San Diego County, California (Census of Agriculture).
United States Department of Agriculture, & PRISM Climate Group. (2012). USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map. Oregon: USDA.
USDA. (2002). San Diego County Summary Highlights: 2002 (Census of Agriculture). Washington, DC: USDA.
USDA. (2012a). California County Summary Highlights: 2012. Washington, DC.
USDA. (2012b). San Diego County Summary Highlights: 2012 (Census of Agriculture) (pp. 230–254). Washington, DC: USDA.
U.S. Population by State, 1790 to 2015. (2015). [Online Encyclopedia]. Retrieved from http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004986.html
Viessman, W. (1998). Water policies for the future: An introduction. Water Resources Update.
Walker, B., Holling, C. S., Carpenter, S. R., & Kinzig, A. (2004). Resilience, Adaptability, and Tranformability in Social-ecological Systems. Ecology and Society, 9(2). Retrieved from http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss2/art5
Wasi, N., & White, M. (2005). Property Tax Limitations and Mobility: The Lock-In Effect of California’s Proposition 13 (Working Paper No. 11108). Cambridge. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w11108.pdf
Weather Fundamentals. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.weatherexplained.com/Vol-1/Weather-Fundamentals.html
What is Proposition 13? (n.d.). California Tax Data. Retrieved from http://www.californiataxdata.com/pdf/Prop13.pdf
Woods, F. (1970). The Tax Reform Act of 1969: Provisions of Significance to Farmers. Washington, DC: Agricultural Economist Farm Production Economics Division. Retrieved from https://archive.org/stream/taxreformactof19441wood#page/n3/mode/2up

84. Historical Context
Mission Era
• Two missions: Mission San Diego de Alcala and Mission San Luis Rey de Francia
 San Diego: “Mother” of California Missions
 San Luis Rey: “King” of California Missions
Sources: Englehardt, 1920; 1921

85. Historical Context
Mission Era
Source: Englehardt, 1921

86. Avocados in San Diego
History of Cultivation
• The oldest avocado tree in San Diego
County is said to have been planted on a
ranch in Escondido in about 1895
• 1915 – several groves planted
simultaneously
 Point Loma: first commercial and research
grove
• Initially, great diversity of varieties
• Currently 94% of avocados grown in San
Diego County are Hass
Table 4.
Varieties of Avocados Grown in San Diego County, 1975
Variety Acres % of Total Avocado Acres
Fuerte 8,124 44%
Hass 7,243 39%
Zutano 1,160 6.3%
Bacon 902 4.9%
All Others 1,034 5.6%
Source: Gustafson, C. D. (1975). The San Diego County Avocado Industry,
1975. California Avocado Association Yearbook, 59, 36—39.
Hass Avocado

87. Avocados in San Diego
Persea Americana
• Native to mountain rainforests of Central America
 Shallow Root System
 Low cold-tolerance
• Need USDA hardiness zone of 10 or 11, depending on variety
Hass Avocado

88. Avocados
• Three “races” of avocados
 West Indian: tropical conditions needed
 Guatemalan: adapted to rainforest conditions
 Mexican: cold tolerant
 Hass = cross between Mexican and Guatemalan
• “Complementary Synchronous dichogamy”
flowering
 A-type and B-type cultivars
• Require a subtropical or tropical climate
Source: USDA NASS, 2012; SD DAWM, 2014
San Diego Co.
California
Mexican Race
(Fuerte)
Guatemalan
Race (Reed)
West Indian Race
Hass Avocado

89. San Diego County
Avocado
Table 1. Overview of Avocados in San Diego County
Statistic San Diego County California
Acres in Avocados 18,439 59,814
Acres in organic avocados
3,863
(21%)
-
# of farms growing avocados 2,778 5,602
% of farmland in avocados 6.9% 0.2%
Production value of avocados $154 million -
Sources: United States Department of Agriculture. (2012). Census of Agriculture County Profile: San Diego County, California (Census of Agriculture).

90. In the last few years we've been severely challenged ... with a pest that has
migrated from Mexico, the Persea mite…We're afraid that the evidence that
Mexico has presented is scientifically flawed… We are afraid that the
regulations that may be proposed will be unenforceable… Growers are afraid,
too, that ... in spite of the best designed and best laid out regulatory plans, the
real market forces will determine where fruit ends up…What growers are
afraid of is that scientific method has been fabricated to prove needed
conclusions…California [avocado] growers are afraid that political decisions
have already been made…
Since the post-frost disaster of 1990, on a fateful day in Orange Cove, in the
County of Fresno, with an entourage accompanied by Vice President Dan
Quayle [that met with a delegation from the Mexican government],
agreements were made that we can see unfolding here today. Your presence
here alone demonstrates that an inordinate amount of resources are being
applied to this project.
Rose, 1994
Socioeconomic Trends
Free Trade and the International Market

91. San Diego County
Agriculture
Table 2. San Diego County Agricultural Overview
General Agriculture Statistics San Diego California USA
# of farms 5,732 77,857 914,527,657
% of farms with organic status (#)
5.50% 3.60% 1.90%
(317) (2,831) (11,715)
Average size of farm [acres] 39 328 434
Market value $725 million $42.6 billion $394.6 Billion
% of farms < 10 acres (#) 68% 32% 11%
Sources: United States Department of Agriculture. (2012). Census of Agriculture County Profile: San Diego County, California (Census of Agriculture).

92. San Diego County
Agriculture
Source: United States Department of Agriculture
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AverageMonthlyAirTemperature
Avg Max Air Temp (F) Avg Min Air Temp (F)
Min Temp (Hass)

93. • The premier agricultural land protection program in California since its
enactment in 1965, preserving agricultural and open-space lands through
property tax incentives and voluntary restrictive-use contracts (California
Department of Conservation, 2015)
• Private landowners enter into 10-year agreements to keep land in agriculture
 Receive reduced taxation
• Currently about 60,000 acres enrolled in Williamson Act
 Down from about 110,000 in 1990
Institutional Context
Agricultural Policies and Institutions: Williamson Act

94. • Special Districts:
• “any agency of the state for the local performance of governmental or
proprietary functions within limited boundaries”
• Examples: School district, water district
Socioeconomic Trends
Proposition 13

95. Socioeconomic Trends
Special Districts
The Legislature finds and declares that… [special
districts’] ability to raise revenue directly from the
property tax for district operations has been eliminated by
Article XIII A of the California Constitution…
such districts [must] rely on user fees and
charges
for raising revenue.
Cal. Const. Art. XIII § 16270

96. Local Trends
Land Values and Land Use
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Acres(SanDiegoCounty)
Acres(California)
California CA (Estimates) San Diego County SD Co (Estimates)
Acres enrolled in Williamson Act (Agricultural Preserves)
Source: California Department of Conservation

97. Local Trends
Land Values and Land Use
Farmland v. Land Values in San Diego County
Source: California Department of Conservation
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
AcresEnrolledinWilliamsonAct
Prime (Recorded) Prime (Est) NonPrime (Recorded) NonPrime (Est) Land Value

98. Table 5. Estimated water requirements for an example mature avocado orchard near Escondido, CA, 1999-2015
Month
Avg.
Mthly
ETO
Avg.
Daily
ETO KC Daily ETC
Water Requirement
Gal/day/tree including 10%
leaching and DU of 0.8
Water Requirement
per acre per month
(109 trees/ac) [Gal]
Water Requirement
For average size orchard in San Diego
Co. [Gal]
Jan 2.39 0.08 0.64 0.049 16.92 57,163 423,009
Feb 2.73 0.10 0.64 0.062 21.20 65,295 483,186
Mar 3.97 0.13 0.64 0.082 28.10 94,953 702,655
Apr 4.95 0.17 0.64 0.106 36.21 118,392 876,106
May 6.02 0.19 0.64 0.124 42.61 143,984 1,065,486
Jun 6.65 0.22 0.64 0.142 48.64 159,052 1,176,991
Jul 7.02 0.23 0.64 0.145 49.69 167,902 1,242,477
Aug 6.63 0.21 0.64 0.137 46.93 158,574 1,173,451
Sep 5.26 0.18 0.64 0.112 38.47 125,807 930,973
Oct 3.77 0.12 0.64 0.078 26.69 90,169 667,256
Nov 2.71 0.09 0.64 0.058 19.82 64,817 479,646
Dec 2.14 0.07 0.64 0.044 15.15 51,183 378,761
Annual Total [Gallons] 1,297,296 9,599,996
Annual Total [Acre-ft] 3.98 29.5
Source: CIMIS; Bender, G., & Faber, B. Irrigation, Dealing with Salinity. In G. Bender (Ed.), Avocado Production in California: A Cultural Handbook for
Growers (Vol. 2). UC Cooperative Extension/California Avocado Society.
Local Trends: Agronomic and Environmental
Rethinking water management

99. Table 5. Estimated water requirements for an example mature avocado orchard near Escondido, CA, 1999-2015
Month
Avg.
Mthly
ETO
Avg.
Daily
ETO KC Daily ETC
Water Requirement
Gal/day/tree including 10%
leaching and DU of 0.8
Water Requirement
per acre per month
(109 trees/ac) [Gal]
Water Requirement
For average size orchard in San Diego
Co. [Gal]
Jan 2.39 0.08 0.64 0.049 16.92 57,163 423,009
Feb 2.73 0.10 0.64 0.062 21.20 65,295 483,186
Mar 3.97 0.13 0.64 0.082 28.10 94,953 702,655
Apr 4.95 0.17 0.64 0.106 36.21 118,392 876,106
May 6.02 0.19 0.64 0.124 42.61 143,984 1,065,486
Jun 6.65 0.22 0.64 0.142 48.64 159,052 1,176,991
Jul 7.02 0.23 0.64 0.145 49.69 167,902 1,242,477
Aug 6.63 0.21 0.64 0.137 46.93 158,574 1,173,451
Sep 5.26 0.18 0.64 0.112 38.47 125,807 930,973
Oct 3.77 0.12 0.64 0.078 26.69 90,169 667,256
Nov 2.71 0.09 0.64 0.058 19.82 64,817 479,646
Dec 2.14 0.07 0.64 0.044 15.15 51,183 378,761
Annual Total [Gallons] 1,297,296 9,599,996
Annual Total [Acre-ft] 3.98 29.5
Source: CIMIS; Bender, G., & Faber, B. Irrigation, Dealing with Salinity. In G. Bender (Ed.), Avocado Production in California: A Cultural Handbook for
Growers (Vol. 2). UC Cooperative Extension/California Avocado Society.
Local Trends: Agronomic and Environmental
Rethinking water management

100. Table 5. Estimated water requirements for an example mature avocado orchard near Escondido, CA, 1999-2015
Month
Avg.
Mthly
ETO
Avg.
Daily
ETO KC Daily ETC
Water Requirement
Gal/day/tree including 10%
leaching and DU of 0.8
Water Requirement
per acre per month
(109 trees/ac) [Gal]
Water Requirement
For average size orchard in San Diego
Co. [Gal]
Jan 2.39 0.08 0.64 0.049 16.92 57,163 423,009
Feb 2.73 0.10 0.64 0.062 21.20 65,295 483,186
Mar 3.97 0.13 0.64 0.082 28.10 94,953 702,655
Apr 4.95 0.17 0.64 0.106 36.21 118,392 876,106
May 6.02 0.19 0.64 0.124 42.61 143,984 1,065,486
Jun 6.65 0.22 0.64 0.142 48.64 159,052 1,176,991
Jul 7.02 0.23 0.64 0.145 49.69 167,902 1,242,477
Aug 6.63 0.21 0.64 0.137 46.93 158,574 1,173,451
Sep 5.26 0.18 0.64 0.112 38.47 125,807 930,973
Oct 3.77 0.12 0.64 0.078 26.69 90,169 667,256
Nov 2.71 0.09 0.64 0.058 19.82 64,817 479,646
Dec 2.14 0.07 0.64 0.044 15.15 51,183 378,761
Annual Total [Gallons] 1,297,296 9,599,996
Annual Total [Acre-ft] 3.98 29.5
Source: CIMIS; Bender, G., & Faber, B. Irrigation, Dealing with Salinity. In G. Bender (Ed.), Avocado Production in California: A Cultural Handbook for
Growers (Vol. 2). UC Cooperative Extension/California Avocado Society.
Local Trends: Agronomic and Environmental
Rethinking water management

101. • Prop 13 limits tax to be increased by max. 2%
per year (and set at 1% of total value, starting
with 1975 value)
• Prop 13 Subsidy Example (ex. 1% rate):
Home Value (1975): $100,000
Home Value (1976): $110,000
 Normally, it would increase to $1,100 (10%)
 Tax could be increased from $1,000 to $1,020 (2%)
“Prop 13 Subsidy”: $1,100-$1,020 = $80
Socioeconomic Trends
Proposition 13 Subsidy

102. • In 2005, study researching these “subsidies”:
 San Francisco-Oakland-Vallejo MSA: $3,500
 Bakersfield MSA: $110
Subsidies were largest in coastal communities,
smallest in inland, agricultural communities
• San Diego MSA: $1,300
• One of few places in California where both coastal and
inland agricultural communities exist in same MSA
Source: Wasi & White, 2005
Socioeconomic Trends
Proposition 13

103. Interdisciplinary Approach
• Urban Planning is a field that pulls from multiple disciplines
• Coupled with systems, can help understand the holistic complex of
interrelationships in the San Diego County agricultural production system
“Interdisciplinarity analyzes, synthesizes and harmonizes links
between disciplines into a coordinated and coherent whole”
Choi & Pak, 2006

104. Grounded Theory
• Grounded Theory
 Inductive method in which research begins with individual cases or
experiences and develops progressively more abstract conceptual
categories to synthesize, to explain, and to understand data and to identify
patterned relationships in the data
 Research was guided by initial stakeholder interviews (snowball sampling)
 Interviews were used to shape questions asked in grower surveys

105. • Avocado importation banned to 1914, when Mexican avocados were banned
because of pests
 Ban overrode agreements made in North American Free Trade Agreement
• Lack of familiarity in much of country regardless
“Twenty years ago, with run-of-the mill in Tennessee, for example, nobody knew what
[an avocado] was. When they were offered it, they would bite into it skin and all, I
mean they had no concept of how do you eat an avocado…”
Key Stakeholder, Avocado Industry Representative
Institutional Context
Agricultural Policies and Institutions: International Trade

106. San Diego County
Avocado
• 35% of total land in avocados in California is in San Diego County
SD County: Orchards and Vineyards
Avocados:
18,439
Citrus (no
lemon): 12,605
Ornamental Trees and
Shrubs: 5,303
Hay, Oat: 3,847
Lemons: 3,569
Tomatoes: 1,720
Pasture
(Irrigated): 1,533
Bedding Plants,
Herbaceous
Perennials: 1,318
Grapes: 923
Indoor Flowering and
Foliage Plants: 863
Other:
8,703
SD County Crops: Acreage
Source: SD DAWM, 2014; SANGIS

107. Volume of Avocados Produced (tons) v Acres of Avocados in San Diego County, 1969-2017
Sources: San Diego Department of Agriculture Weights and Measures
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
TonsofAvocadosProduced
AcresinAvocados
Acres Tons (5-yr Moving Average)
Socioeconomic Trends
Free Trade and the International Market

108. San Diego Co.
California
• Semi-Arid Climate
• Varied Physiography
• Geographic Isolation

109.  True cost of water had to be reflected in water
district costs
 Direct adverse effects on agricultural users who
Saw little or no gain from Prop 13 property tax
reductions
 Implications at regional level and local level
Socioeconomic Trends
Special Districts