Sistema de alerta temprana para el manejo de la roya del café en Brasil

1. Forecast system for coffee rust
rational management in Brazil
MSc. Fernando Hinnah – ESALQ - BRASIL

2. • Coffee in Brazil
• Coffee rust in Brazil
• Forecast systems: why to use?
• Development of a coffee rust forecast system
• Evaluating coffee rust forecast
Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah
Presentation Outline

3. Coffee in Brazil
• Grown since 1727
• 1.5 million ha arabica coffee
• 0.5 million ha robusta coffee
• Major producer:
• Minas Gerais
• 586 thousand km2
• 1.1 million ha
Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah

4. Coffee in Brazil
• Grown mainly under full sun
• Current trends:
• Higher plant population
• More machinery
• Gourmet coffees
• Mountainousareas
• Coffee rust
• First occurrence: 1970
• Chemical control
• Usually 3 calendar sprays (Dec, Feb, Apr)
Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah
Agrifolha

5. Forecast system
• Must be:
• simple
• not expensive
• trustable
• reliable
• Applicable in all conditions(regions/countries/shaded);
• Require a minimum weather data;
Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah
http://www.genovese.com.au/author/genovese/ http://www.donevelio.com/blogs/
Reuters

6. Forecast system: why to use?
Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah
Reuters
X

7. Forecast system development
Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah
Rust progress data
Wheather data
acquisition
Epidemiological
analysis
Wheather data
consistency
Apparent
infection
rate (r)
Correlation matrix
Most important wheather variables
RUST FORECAST SYSTEM

8. • Forecastinghas becomea management system tool
• Forecastingallows to schedule fungicide sprays
Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah
RUST FORECAST SYSTEM
Evaluated with
independent
disease data
Develop a
chemical control
management
system
Field trials for
validation

9. Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah
Forecast system evaluation
Logistic GompertzLinear
Real Incidence (%)
PredictedIncidence(%)
PredictedIncidence(%)
Variables

10. Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah
Forecast system evaluation
PredictedIncidence(%)
Variables

11. Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah
Forecast system evaluation
PredictedIncidence(%)
PredictedIncidence(%)
Variables

12. Field validation
Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah

13. Field validation
Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah
• In these experiments, we tested:
• No control
• Calendar-based control
• Different thresholds
• Trying to have better control during all
the growing season

14. Thanks!
Gracias!
Obrigado!
Fernando Hinnah
fhinnah@usp.br
www.leb.esalq.usp.br/agmfacil
+55 19 9 9992 4432
Forecast system for coffee rust rational management in Brazil – Fernando Hinnah