The IRRV Annual Conference 2015 featured this presentation by Deven Ghelani about Progress on Welfare Reform. Understanding the impact of cumulative and future welfare reforms on individual residents was at the heart of Deven's talk. Stark insights from welfare reform impact analysis work done with Leeds City Council and Birmingham City Council were shared. Deven outlined how specific welfare reforms have different impacts and what these mean to individual residents. Policy makers in local authorities need to make sure that their policies are appropriate to local needs. Yet, without the insights that councils like Leeds and Birmingham have secured, the risk is that support programmes are blanket and wasteful, not targeted and effective.

1. Deven Ghelani
IRRV ANNUAL CONFERENCE
Progress on Welfare Reform
Policy in Practice

2. Do you know the impact that
welfare reform is having on
each of your residents?
www.policyinpractice.co.uk

3. Why is this important?
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• Members want to know
• Decide on your local support scheme
• Contacting residents (letter, face to face)
• Obligation to protect the vulnerable

4. Today’s Agenda
1. Introduction
2. The challenge for local authorities
3. A person-centred impact assessment
4. The outcomes for residents
5. The software that makes it happen
6. Next Steps
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5. We make the welfare system
simple to understand, so
people can make the decisions
that are right for them
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About Policy in Practice

6. The Challenge for
Local Authorities
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7. Challenge: Leeds City Council
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“I can’t see whether the people being clobbered
by reductions in council tax support, or under-
occupation are the same people that have been
clobbered by other reforms.”
Steve Carey, Leeds City Council

8. The combined impact on
households is typically
changing, complex and
confusing
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9. Your organisation:
• Partner among other stakeholders
• May be a Local Authority or a Social Landlord
• Implemented 2013 Welfare Reforms
• Universal Credit is live or imminent
• Residents face further reductions in support
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10. Reduced budgets to
deliver support now and
in the future
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11. Challenge: Birmingham City Council
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“We want the council to move beyond sticking plaster solutions.
If we can promote work and independence by understanding
who is impacted by welfare reforms and working closely with
partners, we will have more resources available for people that
still need our support.
We have an obligation to protect and support the
most vulnerable.”
Chris Gibbs, Birmingham City Council

12. How are you making
decisions about who
receives what support?
www.policyinpractice.co.uk

13. A Person Centred Impact
Assessment
data + software =
actionable insights
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14. Policy in Practice’s Approach
www.policyinpractice.co.uk
1. Use local data and
insights to inform better
decision makingYour SHBE data
Our Universal
Benefit Calculator
A detailed impact
assessment - who is
impacted and how?
2. See the impact of
specific and cumulative
reforms at an aggregate and
household level
3. Inform targeted and
tailored local welfare
support

15. Rich data for each household
Household details Under-Occupation Local Housing Allowance Council Tax Support
• Reference number
• Household Type
• Tenure
• Economic status
• Earnings
• Savings
• Under occupied (y/n)
• Under occupied (amount £)
• LHA cap (y/n)
• LHA cap (amount £)
• Not protected (y/n)
• Not protected (amount £)
Benefit Cap at £26k Benefit Cap at £20k Tax Credit Changes Other
• Could get WTC (y/n)
• Receiving DLA (y/n)
• Benefit cap 26k (y/n)
• Amount (£)
• Could get WTC (y/n)
• Receiving DLA (y/n)
• Benefit cap 20k (y/n)
• Amount (£)
• Reduced (y/n)
• Reduced amount (£)
• Earnings below NMW(y/n)
• Pay to stay (y/n)
• Free school meal eligibility
Universal Credit Support Cumulative Impact Barriers to work
• Needs protection (y/n)
• Needs protection (£)
• In work conditionality (y/n)
• Min income floor (y/n)
• DHP (£/no)
• CTRS (£/no)
• Income Reduction 2015 (£)
• Impact 2015 (no/l/m/h)
• Income Reduction 2016 (£)
• Impact 2016 (no/l/m/h)
• Disability (0/1/2)
• Caring responsibilities (0/2)
• Parenting
responsibilities(0/1/2)
• Barriers to work
(low/medium/high)
www.policyinpractice.co.uk

16. benefit
cap
Under-
occupying
LHA cap
Council
Tax
Reduction
CTRS
Tax
Credit
cuts
lower UC higher UC
Better off
in Work
# of households affected
by multiple reforms
No impact
1
reform
2
reforms
AA1 0 0 7 20 TBC 9 16 32 8 21 7
AA4 1 0 59 38 TBC 21 25 55 10 44 25
AA11 1 19 45 99 TBC 68 61 143 47 113 47
AA16 0 0 0 0 TBC 0 1 1 1 0 0
AB1 0 16 25 74 TBC 30 46 99 36 70 34
AB2 2 39 89 224 TBC 37 123 246 109 189 96
AB3 0 31 41 140 TBC 38 88 134 78 128 55
AB4 0 75 166 341 TBC 106 190 456 148 327 163
AB5 3 129 73 336 TBC 136 180 432 150 318 155
AB6 14 266 630 1355 TBC 406 899 1456 834 1354 575
AB7 17 629 346 1839 TBC 780 1038 2235 822 1636 838
AB8 43 442 1083 2662 TBC 1140 1306 2786 912 2119 1346
AB9 51 968 979 3466 TBC 1481 1614 3103 1411 3085 1676
Who has been impacted
by reforms to date?
What will be the impact
of
Universal Credit?
Who has been hit by
multiple reforms?
The depth of our analysis goes
even deeper, to household level
Explain a Complex Picture to Cabinet
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Tax Credit
cuts?

17. Preliminary findings
paint a stark picture
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18. 69% of households are of Working
age
29%
20%
5%
33%
13%
In work
Not in work
Not in work, carer
Not in work, disabled
Not in work, lone
parent
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19. The Summer Budget will double the
impact of welfare reform on
residents
£9.73 £18.44
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20. Four times as many household
will face a ‘high’ impact
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21. Specific
reforms
have
different
impacts
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22. If you had these insights
too, what would you do
differently?
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23. A lower Benefit Cap will affect 10x as
many households
756
7,285
At £26,000 At £20,000
www.policyinpractice.co.uk
Recommendations:
Check exemptions on specific
households, for example:
• Households in receipt of ESA
may be in the support group
• Children in receipt of DLA
• They or their partner may be
in work, and eligible for tax
credits.

24. Reduction of the Benefit Cap
Weekly benefit cap amount
169 161 115 85 76 114 23 12 1
2,263
951 955
756
1,003
1,153
200
3 1
£0-20 £21-40 £41-60 £61-80 £81-100 £101-150£151-200£201-300 £301+
NumberofCases
Weekly Benefit Cap Amount
£26k £20k
Recommendation:
Take proactive steps
• Focus intensive outreach and
support on those most severely
impacted by a lower benefit
cap

25. Targeted employment support
www.policyinpractice.co.uk
Recommendations:
• 4,808 households have a high welfare reform impact, but low barriers to work.
• Supporting these households into work could help to alleviate financial hardship
for those families and for the council.

26. Future Reforms: Tax Credits
www.policyinpractice.co.uk
90% of households that will see a reduction to their tax credits have children.
The largest proportion of households affected live in the private rented sector.
Tax Credit changes affect mostly those in receipt of Working Tax Credit. Households
affected will lose £24 per week on average.
Recommendation:
• Take proactive steps to broaden your support offer
• Reach out to households less well known to the council, who will be affected

27. Future Reforms: Universal Credit
www.policyinpractice.co.uk
Recommendations:
• Take proactive steps to support people who will be better off in work, and working
more, while taking different actions to help those negatively impacted.
• Take action to help those already in arrears.

28. ESA WRAG premium to be removed for new claimants
• 5,852 households in the Work Related Activity Group would lose the WRAG
premium, worth £29.05 per week
Changes affecting young people
• 85% of HB recipients aged 18-21 are out of work and may lose automatic
entitlement to HB
• 4,042 young people aged 18-21 will be expected to ‘earn or learn’ (includes non-
dependants)
The minimum income floor affects most self-employed people
• 65% of self-employed households have earning below the Minimum Income Floor
in Birmingham.
The third child rule
• 15,598 working-age households have two children. These households would not
be eligible for additional support through tax credits if they had a third child after
April 2016.
Other reforms
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29. How are others using this?
Proactive steps can mitigate
the impact
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30. Birmingham City Council
• Identify households most vulnerable to welfare reforms, and map
local support onto local needs
North Hertfordshire Council
• Accurately forecast the cost of their council tax reduction scheme
• Helped them to eliminate a £500,000 underspend
Leeds City Council
• Develop an innovative approach to local support, introducing
targeted conditionality, and justify this decision to cabinet
Melton Council
• Use household level analysis on the most heavily impacted
households, and combine with strategic intervention activity
Newcastle City Council and Your Homes Newcastle
• Detailed impact assessment now, and the start of a big data hub
to track the impact of reforms, effectiveness of interventions

31. JSA
Child Tax
Credit
ESA
Housing
Benefit
Working Tax
Credit
Income
Support
Engage people and change behaviour
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32. Residents understand
and feel empowered
Staff have more time to
focus on outcomes
You make better use of
ever scarce resources
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What outcomes would you like to achieve?

33. What outcomes would
you like to achieve?
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34. Next Actions
You can:
• Request an information sheet on our software and
our impact assessment service
• Request a case study, read the Benefit Cap White
Paper or ask to speak to one of our clients
• Request a sample impact assessment report
• Contact hello@policyinpractice.co.uk to enquire on
behalf of your local authority
www.policyinpractice.co.uk

35. Deven Ghelani
deven@policyinpractice.co.uk
07863 560677
@deven_ghelani
Thank you
www.policyinpractice.co.uk

36. Timeframes: six to eight weeks
Kick off meeting:
• We agree upon the core deliverables, and outcomes you are hoping to
achieve.
Data requirements:
• We can send you a template data sharing agreement that has worked well
for our clients.
• A detailed list of data requirements from your SHBE and CTRS records.
Review preliminary findings:
• We want you to get maximum value from the analysis
Final report:
• We can deliver a final presentation in person to your project board
• You can request a report
• If you want more information, or talk about your own particular
circumstances
www.policyinpractice.co.uk

37. Rich data for each household
Household details Under-Occupation Local Housing Allowance Council Tax Support
• Reference number
• Household Type
• Tenure
• Economic status
• Earnings
• Savings
• Under occupied (y/n)
• Under occupied (amount £)
• LHA cap (y/n)
• LHA cap (amount £)
• Not protected (y/n)
• Not protected (amount £)
Benefit Cap at £26k Benefit Cap at £20k Tax Credit Changes Other
• Could get WTC (y/n)
• Receiving DLA (y/n)
• Benefit cap 26k (y/n)
• Amount (£)
• Could get WTC (y/n)
• Receiving DLA (y/n)
• Benefit cap 20k (y/n)
• Amount (£)
• Reduced (y/n)
• Reduced amount (£)
• Earnings below NMW(y/n)
• Pay to stay (y/n)
• Free school meal eligibility
Universal Credit Support Cumulative Impact Barriers to work
• Needs protection (y/n)
• Needs protection (£)
• In work conditionality (y/n)
• Min income floor (y/n)
• DHP (£/no)
• CTRS (£/no)
• Income Reduction 2015 (£)
• Impact 2015 (no/l/m/h)
• Income Reduction 2016 (£)
• Impact 2016 (no/l/m/h)
• Disability (0/1/2)
• Caring responsibilities (0/2)
• Parenting
responsibilities(0/1/2)
• Barriers to work
(low/medium/high)
www.policyinpractice.co.uk

38. What have we learned?
• Local Authorities face difficult choices
– £12bn of cuts with reforms aimed at changing behaviour.
– The combined impact on households is changing, complex and confusing.
• The risk is that households won't get the right support
– Councils need to better co-ordinate support with partners.
– This includes financial support and support toward independence.
– Without better co-ordination, and support into employment, there won't be
enough support available to go around.
– This will cost the council and taxpayers through impacts on other services.
• Policy in Practice has developed an approach that will help you to
– Better co-ordinate support and prepare for reforms
– Explain a complex picture, both to cabinet and to the end user
– target and tailor support effectively
– Have a tangible and measured impact on behaviour
www.policyinpractice.co.uk

39. Software Feedback
I found the calculator to be very
easy to use, very basic visual
results which were easy to interpret.
It is very quick to use so it was not
taking up all our time during the
meeting it left more time to discuss
the results with the customer.
I will definitely be using this in the
future, a very good tool to have.
I think the calculator is brilliant and
really easy to use, it can email and
print out calculations and the
comparison was fab
The best reaction I got was a
customer that stated "I am definitely
getting a job now“.