Presentation at the Annual Meeting of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, 25.06.2020

1. Brexit and the 2019
UK general election
Dr Paolo Chiocchetti
Centre for British Studies, Humboldt University of Berlin

2. Outline
Author and institution
The long and winding road to Brexit
The 2019 general election: results and reasons
Conclusions

3. Author and institution
Centre for British Studies
Humboldt University of Berlin
www.gbz.hu-berlin.de
Leading German centre for
interdisciplinary research, teaching, and
dissemination on British Studies and
British-German relations
Cultural Studies, History, Law, Politics
Dr Paolo Chiocchetti
Lecturer in British Politics
paolo.chiocchetti@hu-berlin.de
Postdoctoral research on Brexit identities,
EU governance, and Western European
politics

4. 2016 June 26
2017 March 29
2017 June 8
2019 December 12
2020 January 31
Brexit referendum
Art. 50 notification
General election and deadlock
General election and resolution
Brexit!
The long and winding road to Brexit

5. 2019 general election: results
Vote share (%) Seats (N)
GE 2017 GE 2019 CHANGE GE 2017 GE 2019 CHANGE
CONSERVATIVE 42.4 43.6 +1.2 317 365 +48
LABOUR 40.0 32.1 -7.9 262 202 -60
LIB-DEMS 7.4 11.5 +4.1 12 11 -1
SNP 3.0 3.9 +0.9 35 48 +13
GREEN (EW) 1.6 2.7 +1.1 1 1 +0
BREXIT 0.0 2.0 +2.0 0 0 +0
UKIP 1.8 0.1 -1.7 0 0 +0
DUP 0.9 0.8 -0.1 10 8 -2
SF 0.7 0.6 -0.1 7 7 +0
PC 0.5 0.5 +0.0 4 4 +0
ALLIANCE 0.2 0.4 +0.2 0 1 +1
SDLP 0.3 0.4 +0.1 0 2 +2
OTHERS 1.2 1.4 +0.2 2 1 -1
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 650 650
TURNOUT 68.8 67.3 -1.5
Clear Conservative
victory and majority
Disaster for Labour
SNP landslide in Scotland
Lib-Dems gain votes but
lose seats
Lower turnout
Source: official results

6. 2019 general election: reasons

7. 1. The electoral system
single-member plurality system (“first-past-the-post”)
▪ benefits parties with an effective geographical distribution of the vote (enough to win seats, but with small margins of victory)
Source: official results
VOTES
43.6%
SEATS
56.2%
VOTES
32.1%
SEATS
31.1%
VOTES
11.5%
SEATS
1.7%
VOTES
3.9%
SEATS
7.4%

8. 2. Brexit
party positions on Brexit
▪ Con → “get Brexit done” Lib-Dem → “stop Brexit” Lab → convoluted
2019 voters split in two roughly equal camps
▪ 49.2% voted Leave in 2016 (Leavers), 50.5% voted Remain in 2016 (Remainers)
most important issue of the election for 2019 voters
▪ Brexit 49.8% (public services & welfare 18.4%, environment 6.2%, Tories 3.9%, immigration 3.7%...)
dispersion of Remainer camp
▪ Leavers rallied behind Johnson’s Conservatives (72.9%) ≠ Labour 12.2%, other 14.9%
▪ Remainers did not rally behind Labour (44.4%) ≠ Conservatives 19.1%, other 36.5%
Labour’s Brexit “fudge” led to heavy losses on both sides
▪ Labour’s net losses toward Leaver parties → 3.4% of valid votes
▪ Labour’s net losses toward Remainer parties → 3.4% of valid votes
Source: official results, British Election Study (internet panel, wave 19), YouGov

9. 3. Popularity of party leaders
Corbyn generally unpopular
Johnson divisive but more popular
Net popularity on 14 December 2019
▪ Corbyn: -50%
▪ Johnson: -11%
Source: opinion polls
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Corbyn May Johnson
Brexit referendum
General election
Brexit delayed

10. 4. Other issues
▪ economically conservative Remainers
▪ culturally conservative working-class voters
▪ party cohesion
▪ Labour’s absence of a clear path to government
▪ Labour’s antisemitism “crisis”
▪ Labour’s failure to repeat its campaign wonder of 2017

11. Conclusions
1
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strength of Brexit-induced polarization
UK-EU future relationship still unclear
death of the Corbyn project
Johnson broke the Brexit deadlock

12. Stay in touch
www.gbz.hu-berlin.de
scholar.google.at/citations?user=z1f8NnQAAAAJ&hl=en
twitter.com/p_chiocchetti