![Missing Voters in Midterm
Voting Eligible Population (VEP): 239,247,182
Roughly 48 million voters (20%) missing from 2020
-Larger than population of California
-3.5X’s the population of Tokyo
[Note: Roughly 10 million (4%) voters missing from 2018]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/202211172022usmidtermelections-221205014945-b7c61850/85/Understanding-the-2022-US-midterm-elections-7-320.jpg)
![Washington CD 3 [R+5]
Incumbent, Jaime Herrera Beutler
- Republican](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/202211172022usmidtermelections-221205014945-b7c61850/85/Understanding-the-2022-US-midterm-elections-19-320.jpg)
Understanding the 2022 US midterm elections
The document provides an overview of the factors influencing the performance of the party in power during the 2022 midterm elections, emphasizing the concepts of 'surge and decline', presidential penalty, and the role of voter turnout, particularly among different party affiliations. It highlights the significant number of missing voters compared to previous elections and discusses the implications for both parties in the upcoming 2024 elections. Additionally, it outlines potential candidates for both the Republican and Democratic parties ahead of the next presidential election.
Understanding the 2022 US midterm elections
- 1. 2022 Midterm ElectionsOverview Paul Sracic Professor of Politics and International Relations Youngstown State University
- 4. Why does the“Party in Power” do so poorly in House Midterm Elections? • Surge and Decline • Coattails • Presidential Penalty/Referendum Explanations
- 5. Surge and Decline “weakpartisans” stay home during Midterms
- 7. Missing Voters inMidterm Voting Eligible Population (VEP): 239,247,182 Roughly 48 million voters (20%) missing from 2020 -Larger than population of California -3.5X’s the population of Tokyo [Note: Roughly 10 million (4%) voters missing from 2018]
- 8. Voters by PartyAffiliation 2022 (2020) Democrats: 33% (37%) Republicans: 36% (36%) Independents: 31% (26%)
- 10. Coattails Presidential party “overperforms” in priorelection due to “presidential coattails”
- 11. 2020 U.S. Houseof Representatives Election Democrats Republicans 2020 House Elections
- 12. Seats gained byOut-of-Power Party gain where party began with more than 210 seats 2022: (?) 2014: +13 2002: -8 1998: -5 1990: +8 1986: +5 1982: +26
- 13. Presidential Penalty/Referendum “Negative Voting” Presidentialdisapproval motivates voters more than approval. -Some voters want to “balance” presidential power. Voters are evaluating economic conditions and whether they approve of the president. This nationalizes elections.
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- 17. • Referendum onwhose performance?
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- 19. Washington CD 3[R+5] Incumbent, Jaime Herrera Beutler - Republican
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- 24. OHIO 2012 President 2022Senate
- 25. Ohio 2020 versus2022
- 26. Ohio 2020 versus2022
- 27. Ohio 2020 versus2022
- 28. Ohio 2020 versus2022
- 29. In 2018 midterms,77 percent of Asian-Americans had voted for House Democratic candidates Asian American Vote
- 30. 2024 • Senate • Bad“map” for Democrats in the Senate • 23/33 seats held by Democrats • Assuming 51D-49R in 2022 • Democrats start with 28 Seats • Republicans start with 39 Seats
- 31. 2024 Presidential Candidates? Republicans •Trump • DeSantis • Pence • Pompeo • Scott • Haley • Hogan Democrats • Biden • Harris • Buttigieg • Newsom • Warren • Klobuchar
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- 34. 2022 Midterm ElectionsOverview Paul Sracic Professor of Politics and International Relations Youngstown State University