Доклад ведущего эксперта Великобритании

1. “Back to the Future”
Recent Findings
Mary McKinlay
September 2011
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

2. Who Am I?
 Board Member APM
 Board Member ICCPM
 Winner of IPMA Otto Ziegelmeier Award for Project
Excellence 2010
 Adjunct at SKEMA (ESC Lille)
 30+ Years in Aerospace and Defence Business
 Degree in Systems Engineering
 “Problem” Project work
 Practitioner and Engineer!
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

3. Agenda
 Themes Of Complexity
 A Little History
 What Are The Problems That We Face
Now?
 Moving Forward
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

4. What do we mean by Complexity?
 Not just large or complicated
 Great uncertainty
 Cannot be decomposed into discrete units
 Many stakeholders
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5. Complex or Complicated ?
 Complex – “composed of many interconnecting
parts
 Complicated – “composed of many elaborate
interconnecting parts”
Nature of the relationships between the parts
 Complex Systems – elements interact and
produce outcomes that are nonlinear and
unpredictable
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6. Complex Projects
 ..are characterised by uncertainty, non-linearity and
recursiveness, best viewed as dynamic and evolving
systems.
 So why do we pretend they are predictable, definable
and fixed – and why do we use linear lifecycle models
to manage them???
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

7. Elements of Complexity
 Uncertainty
• Number of Stakeholders
• Influence of Stakeholders
• Technology Changes
• Duration of Projects
• Length of Supply Chains
 “Wicked” Problems
• Interconnectivity
 Need for flexibility
 Need to be able to track effectively
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8. HMS Victory
 July 1759, Mr Edward Allen, Master Shipwright of Chatham
Dockyard received a letter from the Principal Officers and
Commissioners of the Admiralty directing him:
"To make preparation and to prepare costing for a First-Rate
Ship of 100 guns, to be built and fitted for sea at Chatham".
 Design: Thomas Slade, Senior Surveyor of the Navy
 Keel Laid July 1759
 May 1763 Floated out of Dock
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

9. Project Features
 Internal to the Navy
 Long Lead Time Items – timber from Royal forest
 Stakeholders – internal , although Public and Sailors were
considered in choice of name
 WHAT HAPPENED NEXT…
 Shortage of Manpower
 Need for ship had decreased and she was laid up after
ballasting for 13 years.
 March 1771, urgent repairs sinking in dry dock
 Completion ordered 1776
 Finally entered service June 1778
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

10. HMS Warrior
 Builder: Thames Ironworks & Shipbuilding Co. Ltd.
 Laid Down: May 25, 1859
 Launched: December 29, 1860
 Commissioned: August 1, 1861
 Decommissioned: May 31, 1883
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

11. Project Distinguishing Features
 Warrior was a composite sail/steam armoured frigate.
Built with an iron hull and steam engines turning a
large propeller
 Conceived by Admiral Sir Baldwin Wake-Walker and
designed by Isaac Watts
 Admiralty was client to external companies
 Urgency in build – to retain naval supremacy
(Threatened by the French construction of “La Gloire”)
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

12. Supermarine Spitfire
 1934 RAF announced search for new fighter.
 Vickers Aviation offered Spitfire as a solution
 Had been developed from Reginald Mitchell’s design
for Racing Seaplane (Schneider Trophy) adding new
Rolls Royce engine
 1936 first order for 310 aircraft. By 1939 4000 ordered
 Other manufacturers involved, other versions
developed for range of purposes
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

13. Project Features
 Initial Risks taken by Industry
 Full scale production enabled by private subscriber
 Several Companies involved
 Mass production
 “Commoditisation”
 Public Awareness
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

14. Changes over the Years
 Increasing Costs
 New Partnerships
 Increasing number of Stakeholders
• More Public and Press Involvement
 Changes in Technology
• More specialisation
• Immaturity
 GREATER UNCERTAINTY
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

15. First Order Project
Management
Tools, Techniques
Focus on the magic triangle
It’s not working!
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16. Just a Thought!
“Insanity is doing the
same thing over and over
again and expecting
different results.”
Albert Einstein
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17. Consequences
“In spite of all the investment aimed at improving project
management, there has been no appreciable improvement in the last
five years when compared to the previous five years.”
United States Government Accountability Office, March 2006
“A review of Major Projects over the last 20+ years reveals there has
been little change in project success and they are generally late and
over cost.”
United Kingdom National Audit Office, November 2006
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18. Some More Ideas
 Improved Project Results – not always visible!
 Are Projects becoming more complex?
 Projects are more open to outside influences -
media, stakeholders, technology changes,
dynamic nature of complex projects
 Need for a whole systems approach – links
between Systems Thinking and PM
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19. Second Order Project
Management
 Focus on “People Skills”
 New techniques, increased flexibility
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20. Changes Needed?
 Appropriate Contracting Models
 Outcome Management
 Adhocratic Leadership
 Systems Thinking
 Experiential Learning
 Better Understanding Of Behaviour
 Need For Flexibility
 Decision Making With Minimal Evidence
 Need To Be Able To Track Effectively
 New Approach to Risk and Opportunity Management
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

21. Systemic Failures
 “Despite great efforts by dedicated professionals, you
have nonetheless failed to deliver integrated war
fighting capability to our Battle Groups”
 Admiral Paul Reason, C-in-C Atlantic Fleet, 1998
 -on having to abandon a trial involving the co-operation of two US Navy Carrier groups after only two days.
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22. Systems Thinking – Pathway to
Needed Paradigm Shifts?
 What assumptions have we made? How might they be
incorrect? Are they even reasonable … really?
 What are some plausible alternative causes for the outcomes
we are observing?
 What are we doing to contribute to behaviour we don’t want?
 Do our objectives actually serve our purposes or goals?
 What factors do we believe are important to our success?
Are they really?
 Are we assuming that we should know things we cannot
possibly know at this time?
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

23. Non Linear Projects – London 2012
How much can What priority to
the UK we give to legacy
Government uses of
afford to spend? infrastructure?
Where is the
bar set for a
“successful”
games
What level of
terrorist threat
do we have to
What is the defend against?
impact of UK
economics on
labour market??
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24. Impact of Maturity on Risk
Project Lifecycle
Identify Develop Assess Down Detail Prepare Proposal Deploy Produce Agree Freeze Validate, Certify, Build Support
Produce Prove & Produce Decommissioning
Build &
Options Option Each Select Remaining Accepted System System Engineering Manufacturing Clear for Operational Product and
Proposal Technology Operational Procedures
Definition Option Options Options Specification Specification Definition Definition Operation Capability Clearance Service
Trials
INNOVATION SELECTION SPECIFICATION REFINE/DEFINE VALIDATION PRODUCTION SUPPORT DISPOSAL
System of Systems
Weapon System
Sub- System 1
Integrated System
Sub System 2
System
Sub System 3
Sub-System
Component
Project Risk
Assessed risk
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

25. Risk Chains - Interconnectivity
Across Product Breakdown Structure
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd

26. The Next Steps for Project
Management
 Focus on Complexity
 Need to develop intuition and learning from other’s
success
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27. Models to help
 Remington and Pollack (Tools for Complex Projects)
• 4 types of complexity
• Structural, Technical, Temporal and Directional
 Maylor
• MODEST
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28. MODeST – Maylor et al. 2008
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29. What’s Needed?
 A Disciplined Academically Sound Approach
 Focus on People – Not Tasks, Processes, or Things
 Critical Thinking Skills
 Assumption Challenging as a Way of Life
 Dialogue and Diversity – and Increased Conflict
 A Focus on Creating the Right Environment, Not
Preoccupation with Creating the ‘Right’ Solution
 Multiple Paradigms, Multiple Methodologies, and the
Creativity to Employ Them Effectively
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30. ICCPM
International Centre for Complex Project
Management
 Learning
• EMBA at QUT
• Other Courses Worldwide
 Research
• Directions
• Funding
 White Papers
• “The Conspiracy of Optimism”
• Competency Development
 www.iccpm.com
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31. Further Reading
Systems Thinking – Creative Holism for Managers –
Professor Michael Jackson
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32. Closing Thought
“There is nothing more powerful
on earth than an idea whose
time has come” - Victor Hugo
And for Project Management that
time is now
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33. Next Time…
BLOODHOUND SSC
World Land Speed Record
1000 miles per hour
South African Desert 2013
Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd