Speaker: Yumei Wang, Geohazards Section Leader, Oregon Department of Geology and
Mineral Industries
Pacific Northwest‟s disaster is a Cascadia subduction zone mega-earthquake, which would
produce minutes of strong ground shaking, coastal subsidence, liquefaction, landslides, and a
tsunami. Oregon relies on a single critical energy infrastructure hub that includes co-located f
pipelines, petroleum tank farms, river port facilities, and natural gas and electricity transmissi
all which are concentrated along the Willamette River in Portland. Because this energy hub is
located on highly liquefiable soils and the facilities have severe seismic design deficiencies,
Oregon faces a high risk of catastrophic damage to the energy sector. Damage will likely lead
inoperable infrastructure, fires, hazardous materials spills, a fuel shortage, un-navigable
waterways, upstream and downstream economic effects, and regional recovery lasting for yea
The State of Oregon is developing an energy assurance plan with short, medium, and long ran
risk management solutions to help improve the reliability of energy sector services.
Cascadia Disaster and Oregon’s Energy Assurance Plan
1. Cascadia Disaster & Oregon’s Energy Assurance Plan
Partners in Emergency Preparedness Conference, April 26, 2011
Yumei W
Y i Wang, D
Deanna H
Henry, J R G
J.R. Gonzalez, Ri k C t I
l Rick Carter, Immanuel R
l Runnels, & R b
l Rebecca Sh
Sherman
3. Pacific Ring of Fire: Earthquakes
*subduction zones produce biggest quakes
Next slides on Japan incl. info from many sources: ASCE, Miyamoto, media, more
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
11. Tsunami –
can arrive
in 15 i
i ~15 min
& last for
~24 hrs
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
12. Importance of
Lifelines:
Utilities, transportation,
etc ((e.g., Airport,
Ai
Communication,
Electricity)
El i i )
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
Source: Aydan
40. Onogawa
(Oregonian, OSU Harry Yeh)
(Oregonian
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI
41. Coastal Communities
Okawa elementary school
Ishinomaki, Miyagi prefecture.
on March 22,
60 of 84 children missing
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6-14-10
43. NOAA warning: Expect Tsunami Surges for Many Hours.
Hours.
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6-14-10
44. Pacific Ring of Fire: Earthquakes
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
45. Chileg M8.8 vs Cascadia M9 Analog
Geology/Geography/Industry~PNW
gy p y y
Modern w/earlier seismic codes
46. Areas Damage in Japan & Chile
* Future Damage in Oregon *
1. Coastal Areas Hit by Tsunami
eg. Flooded
eg. Fl d d communities, ports, bridges
ii b id
2. Areas of “Weak” Soils
“Weak”
eg.
eg. River crossings: Bridges & pipes
3. Weak Infrastructure
eg.
eg. Older buildings & systems
55. 3. Weak Infrastructure: Santiago Airport
Santiago Airport control tower damage of the four anchor points of the cab structure
56. Take Home Lessons for Oregon
1. Coastal Areas Hit by Tsunami
Improve Safety in Tsunami Prone Areas
2. Areas of “Weak” Soils
Critical Infrastructure & Emergency Routes
g y
3. Weak Infrastructure
Prioritize & Fix using
“risk management”
g
58. When?
100%, don’t know exactly when…
100%,
• 41 quakes magnitude 8 & larger
• 240 yr average period
r er e
• Jan 26, 1700 (311 yrs ago)
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10 (data modified from Goldfinger et al)
59. Where?
North-South Direction: Could be N. CA to BC
East-West Direction: Offshore to up to 30 west of Portland
60. HOW BIG?
Could be magnitude 8, or could be magnitude 9.2
g , g
Mw Mw 8.5- Mw 8.3- Mw
~9 8.8 8.5 7.6-8.4
500 430 yrs 320 yrs 240 yrs
yrs
(modified from Goldfinger et al. (in press))
20 full or nearly full length ruptures
2 to 3 ruptures of ~75% length
f 75% l h
19 shorter ruptures southern part of margin
61. Cascadia:
Cascadia: Double Whammy!
y
Tsunami: arrives ~15 minutes Hazards/Effects
Waves & surges for many hours
g y Ground shaking g
Tsunami (coast)
Coast Subsidence
Liquefaction
Lateral spreading
Landslides
Settlement
Seiches
Fires
Hazmat spills
Infrastructure damage
Black out Fuel
out,
shortage, etc
62. Geologic Time vs Oregonians
(data from Goldfinger et al)
• Design & build using current knowledge (for future generations)
• Seismic hazards recent info: 1994 Oregon adopts seismic building code
• Outcome—lots of vulnerable infrastructure (schools, energy, bridges, etc)
Outcome—
• >1,200 school buildings over 50 yrs old
.
6/1/2011Yumei Wang,
64. Deaths, dollars & downtime
2010 Haiti (220k)
23 per 1,000
2011 Japan (25k/3M)
~8 per 1,000
Oregon Estimates (>5k)
>>3 per 1,000
1 000
World War II (420k in US)
2 per 1,000
2010 Chile (500)
0.2 per 1,000
65. Deaths: Concentrated Fatalities
Weak buildings that collapse
E.g., old b i k b ildi
E ld brick buildings
unreinforced masonry URMs
Historic districts with URMs
URM schools
Tsunami flood zones
66. “5.12” 2008 M 7.9 China Quake
85,000 Total Dead
19,000 S d
19 000 Students Died i S h l
Di d in Schools
68. “5.12” 2008 M 7.9 China Quake
Memorial Town
47 of 212 Occupants Died
69. Tsunami vertical evacuation refuge
Japan Proposed in Oregon
Japan
Built in Thailand
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
70. About Vertical Evacuation
The primary means for Cascadia tsunami
evacuation is to move by foot to inland areas and
y
higher ground. In those areas where evacuation may
take longer than 20 minutes (due to distance or
because of at-risk populations), other tsunami
evacuation options should be explored.
These options may include: creation of new (
Th ti i l d ti f (or
preservation of existing) evacuation routes (paths,
roads, bridges), and tsunami evacuation berms,
structures, & buildings. All these solutions should be
integrated into local tsunami evacuation planning &
education efforts.
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
71. Deaths, dollars & downtime
Japan’s Damage Oregon Estimates
~$306 Billion (US)
$306 Billi >$36 Billion direct
~6% GDP damage
(22% OR GSP)
Chile s
Chile’s Damage Chile’s equivalent damage
q g
$30 Billion (US) in Oregon = $70 B
18% GDP (
(42% OR GSP) )
72. Deaths, dollars & downtime
Critical Energy Infrastructure (CEI)
Critical Transportation Infrastructure (CTI)
p f ( )
OR’s economy relies on energy & transportation
Energy: liquid fuel, electricity, natural gas
Electricity underpins all sectors
y p
89% Gas: transportation (62%) & energy (27%)
Expect: Transportation mobility problems, fuel
problems
shortage, electrical black-out…
Also,
Also interdependencies & cascading issues
73. SOCIETAL
DEPENDENCE
PORTS
HIGHWAYS
A S
ENERGY
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6-14-10
74. Deaths, dollars & downtime
Portland multi-modal transportation corridor
Union Pacific & BNSF rail yards (rail)
Port of Portland & other ports (marine)
Interstate 5, I-205 & I-84 (highways)
PDX (air)
Oregon’s fuel supply hub on liquefiable soils
76. Energy Assurance Project (EAP)
Oregon Dept of Energy, Oregon Public Utility
Commission, & DOGAMI. US DOE funding.
INITIAL FINDINGS (Mar. 2011 EAP report)
Energy Sector: fuel, electricity, natural gas at high risk
gy , y, g g
Widespread seismic vulnerabilities: severe impact
F iliti s range >100 yrs old t m d rn codes
Facilities r n rs ld to modern d s
Oregon’s Fuel Supply Hub: high seismic risk
Damage likely: facilities & river crossings for both
transmission pipelines & towers
Long-
Long-term rebuilding of Critical Energy Infrastructure
http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/publications.shtml EAP Project
77. LIQUID FUEL 100% imported
Natural Gas 100% imported
Many El tri l Operators
M n Electrical Op r t r
Energy demand increase
of 45% next 20 yrs (PGE)
EAP Project
86. Summary Points
Cascadia earthquakes & tsunamis
Damage: tsunamis, weak soils & infrastructure
Priority: Schools & Emergency Facilities
y g y
Critical Transportation & Energy Infrastructure
Build Resilience
87. Pre- 1995 Schools & Emergency Facilities
Public voted (2002) for safe schools & EFs
1,361 high-to-very high risk (2007 DOGAMI report)
649 schools (collapse-prone) with 300,000 students
Only 15 schools rec’d seismic retrofit grants…
88. Energy Assurance Project
Focus Area
Hub Critical Energy
Infrastructure (CEI)
Intersection of:
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Electric
High liquefaction
zone