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Session 1 - Presentation by Xu Zhaoyuan On behalf of Zhao Changwen

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Session 1 - Presentation by Xu Zhaoyuan on behalf of Zhao Changwen

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Session 1 - Presentation by Xu Zhaoyuan On behalf of Zhao Changwen

  1. 1. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC New Normal Led by Innovation and Green Development Presented by Zhaoyuan Xu On behalf of Changwen Zhao Development Research Center of the State council (DRC, China) 14 December, 2015
  2. 2. Contents 1. Innovation and green development should become the twin strategies under the New Normal of China 2. Goal of China’s Innovative and Green Development Strategy 3. Promoting innovation and green development in a few key areas 4. China’s Innovative and Green Development Policies 5. Some Challenges for China in promoting the Green Growth
  3. 3. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC 3 1. Innovation and green development should become the twin most strategies under the New Normal of China After over 30 years of rapid growth, China has entered a higher phase of economic development which we called “New Normal”. There are many new challenges on the way of transition to “New Normal”: Shift from the quantity and speed-oriented model to quality and efficiency-based model----Need shift to Innovation driven model 940 941 937 935 934 933 932 931 929 926 923 920 916 911 905 898 870 880 890 900 910 920 930 940 950 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 million total labol force (aged 15-59) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 growth rate of real investment (av.17.45%) growth rate of non-farm employment(av.3.2%)
  4. 4. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC 4  Consumes too much of resources, which brought great pressure on environment---Need Shift to Green Growth Model In 2014, China has consumed 4.1 billion tons of coal, which is widely believed to surpassed the Environmental bearing capacity limit. In 2014, only 9.1% of total 161 Monitoring cities achieved the air quality standard while more than 90% cities can’t meet the standard.
  5. 5. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC 5  Innovation and green will become the core factors of national competitiveness First, the all-dimensional innovative capacity will be the core competitiveness. Ie. talent, technology, standard, information network, database, software, intellectual property, platform and other factors, technology and business model innovation. Second, green growth will be a critical component of national competitiveness Third, the traditional labor of division system in the world is likely to be reshaped. Fourth, international trade will have major changes. 1) developing countries’ large-scale export trade is likely to be challenged, Digital manufacturing will make scale of economy less important in some sectors. 2) the proportion of trade in goods in international trade will decline. Key links in digital manufacturing are very likely to be further concentrated in developed countries.
  6. 6. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC 6 2. The Goal set by Chinese Government  By 2020, R&D expenditure should account for more than 2.5% of China’s GDP, basic research account for 10% of total research, contribution by science and technology to economic growth be higher than 60%, dependency on foreign technologies be less than 30%, every 10,000 people have 15 patents.  By 2020, reduce carbon intensity by 40-45% on the basis of 2005 cut down the emission of SO2, NOx, by 8-10% on the basis of 2015 total energy consumption will be kept under 5 billion tons of standard coal equivalent after coal consumption reaches its peak.  By 2030, China’s environment will be remarkably improved carbon emission will reached the peak level on-fossil fuel, natural gas and other clean energies will account for over one third of total energy consumption
  7. 7. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC 7 PM2.5 ↓ 25% PM2.5 ↓ 20% PM2.5 ↓ 15% PM10 ↓ 10% The Air pollution control target: 2012 to 2017 In 2013, The State Council Issued “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan”
  8. 8. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC 8 3. Promoting innovation and green development in a few key areas  Blazing an efficient and low-carbon path to industrialization ensure strict enforcement of related laws and standards economic restructuring needs to be promoted. effectively address excess capacity, vigorously develop modern services and emerging strategic industries, and upgrade traditional industries with high technology. A unified national carbon emission trading system should be established as soon as possible.  Exploring a green and smart path to urbanization manage a compact city form in urban planning and construction promote the extensive use of renewable and new energy develop large-scale public transportation and introduce incentives to encourage green transportation means of bicycle and walk encourage the green and low-carbon buildings
  9. 9. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC 9  Vigorously developing smart buildings strengthen standard setting. establish and improve the standards and rules of designing and construction on green buildings and smart buildings sorted out the existing construction, guide and encourage smart building development based on market rules. speed up the fostering of professionals in smart building designing, technology and management  Enhance energy efficiency management of the society In 2011, China’s economic energy efficiency was USD 4.95 per kilogram oil equivalent. In the same year, the global and OECD average level was 47% and 70% higher than China respectively, and high- income non-OECD countries also beat China by 22% Enhancing energy efficiency management is the best solution to improving energy efficiency
  10. 10. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC 10 4. China’s Innovative and Green Development Policies a. Build and improve a national innovation system to fully coordinate and stimulate the innovation capacity of university, enterprises, research institution b. Promote the “Made in China 2025” strategy “Made in China 2025” is Chinese version of Industry 4.0,as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said, “We will implement the 'Made in China 2025' strategy, seek innovation-driven development, apply smart technologies, strengthen foundations, pursue green development and redouble our efforts to upgrade China from a manufacturer of quantity to one of quality.” encourage the green and low-carbon buildings
  11. 11. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC 11 4. China’s Innovative and Green Development Policies c. Coordinate the development of various market trading systems and promote the market segment of environmental conservation  By 2020, a unified national trading market, such as the trading of energy savings, carbon credit and renewable energy, will be completed Market trading arrangements can reduce energy consumption at lower cost and higher efficiency, increase the proportion of renewable energy, reduce pollution and promote the transformation towards green development d. Build an ecological and environmental monitoring network By 2020, this monitoring network will cover all over the national area, monitoring major factors including the environment quality, Key pollution sources, the ecological condition. Take use of the most modern technology, this monitoring network will be on line and in time, and all the data will be shared.
  12. 12. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC 12 5. Some Challenges for China in promoting the Green Growth a. The change for the behavior of the government local government has long been accustomed to push the economy growth by encourage of investment, while innovation driven model is so different from the old way. b. Push the new growth model in the context of down economic period or even contraction period 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 1990-03 1991-03 1992-03 1993-03 1994-03 1995-03 1996-03 1997-03 1998-03 1999-03 2000-03 2001-03 2002-03 2003-03 2004-03 2005-03 2006-03 2007-03 2008-03 2009-03 2010-03 2011-03 2012-03 2013-03 2014-03 2015-03 八五 九五 十五 十一五 十二五
  13. 13. DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER OF THE STATE COUNCIL DRC DRCDRC Thank you!

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