Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Session 1 - Keynote Presentation by Jan Rotmans

828 views

Published on

Session 1 - Keynote Presentation by Jan Rotmans

Published in: Environment
  • Be the first to comment

Session 1 - Keynote Presentation by Jan Rotmans

  1. 1. twitter.com/janrotmans Transition to a low-carbon economy: how to accelerate the transition? Paris, 14 December 2015
  2. 2. Paris Climate Accord: historical landmark
  3. 3. the world has chosen for renewable energy the world has adopted a new, clean economy the world has formulated sharp climate goals Climate Accord as Game Changer
  4. 4. Global Divide Od Economy New Economy fossil fuels renewables carbon based biomass based linear circular centralized decentralized incremental innovation radical innovation
  5. 5. fossil fuels are associated with financial risk global divestment in fossil fuels stranded fossil fuel assets Fossil Breakdown
  6. 6. transition to new economy won’t be easy and smooth
  7. 7. Transition fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in societal (sub)system – structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure (market, consumption, production), institutions (rules, regulations, actors) – culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectives, paradigms – practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling, at the individual level incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be broken down and new ones need to be built up
  8. 8. Transition = Power Shift regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests niche: emerging, divergent structure, culture and practices at a small scale level niche wants to develop power and take over incumbent regime regime protects itself against this through absorption, assimilation or elimination of niches transition = regime-change = power shift
  9. 9. Through development stagePre-development stage Renewables Decentralized Bottom-up Fossil Centralized Top-down Time Sustainable Energy System We are here Tipping Point Transition to Sustainable Energy
  10. 10. The Global Energy Transition has reached the tipping point
  11. 11. Tipping Point Phase chaos conflicts battlefield
  12. 12. Chaos & Turbulence 1 year ago: high oil price by now: extremely low oil prices 2 years ago: sustainable new capacity > fossil new capacity 3 years ago: shalegas ‘revolution’ by now: financial problems & withdrawal 4 years ago: Fukushima by now: nuclear pathwork
  13. 13. Tipping Point Indicators coal fire plants are phased out worldwide decoupling of economic growth and CO2-emissions big European energy companies are in trouble solar PV about 80% cheaper than 7 years ago grid parity: solar & wind compete with fossil fuels in many regions since 2013 more clean energy was installed than fossil fuel
  14. 14. Conflicts Ukraine crisis: Russia versus Europe on gas China vs Europa conflict on solar panels America vs China conflict on solar panels Germany versus other European countries
  15. 15. “ speed by which Europe builds wind farms and solar panels needs to be delayed. The situation is untenable, because it kills our business ” Gérard Mestrallet, CEO GDF/Suez
  16. 16. Global Energy Battle Field market value RWE has decreased by 85% since 2008 [55-8 billion euro] 3 out of 5 energy companies might die out in a tipping point phase of the transition
  17. 17. Survival of the Fittest not the biggest companies will survive, also not the smartest companies, but the most adaptive companies
  18. 18. Transition Governance
  19. 19. Theoretical Principles creating space for niches emergece variation and selection diversity & coherence empowering niches co-evolution different scales interactions, feedbacks anticipation and adaptation self-organisation
  20. 20. Transition Governance create innovation spaces for radical innovation bring together frontrunners in innovation spaces develop a vision and agenda for radical innovation start portfolio of transition experiments
  21. 21. Transition Governance Cycle vision, pathways, transition agenda transition arena transition experiments evaluation, monitoring learning
  22. 22. Transition Arena - long term - front runners - radical innovation - problem / goal searching Different Arena’s Political Arena - short / medium term - peloton - incremental innovation - problem / goal oriented Market Arena - short term - efficiency - growth/return
  23. 23. challenge the market & mobilize society long-term thinking & short-term action Transition Governance
  24. 24. Organic Steering vision, action, strategy demands patience, time, trust
  25. 25. facilitating role of the state - creating radical innovation spaces - removing barriers - forming coalitions around frontrunners - stimulating financial arrangements Transition Policy
  26. 26. challenge market, mobilize society phase 1 searching, learning, experimenting phase 2 selecting, scaling up phase 3 integrating in primary policy process frontrunners Transition Policy
  27. 27. Applications
  28. 28. Transition Governance practised in European countries Netherlands, Belgium, France, Scotland, Switzerland, Austria, Finland Outside Europe Japan, Australia, Canada
  29. 29. Transition Governance application domains energy mobility food health care city development
  30. 30. Lessons Learned successes & failures good results with searching, learning and experimenting lack of results with upscaling and broader support no results yet with full implementation major differences cross countries
  31. 31. 6 ministriesInfluential persons from energy sector (Ministerie van EZ) SENTER NOVEM TRANSITION-PROJECTS Platform- secretaries Taskforce Energy transition PLATFORM SUSUTAINABLEble MOBILITY UKR- support Frontrunners office PLATFORM GREEN RESOURCES PLATFORM CHAIN- EFFIICENCY PLATFORM SUSTAINABLE ELECTRIC. PLATFORM BUILT ENVIRONMENT PLATFORM NEW GAS 23 transition -pathways 1 long-term vision 250 transition experiments PLATFORM GREENHOUSE SOURCE IPE Supporting staff “6 DG” team Interdepartementale Programme board Energy transition Dutch Energy Transition 7 transition themes
  32. 32. Success sense of urgency, high ambition level agenda of reform, breakthrough projects new discours broad movement money, time, energy invested unique policy experiment
  33. 33. Failure process institutionalised and too political overly focus on monitoring and controlling focus on technology and not on behaviour and institutions too much top-down and too little bottom-up from regions political dynamics taken over by societal dynamics
  34. 34. vision & ambition network approach strategy & action facilitating government Dutch Biobased Economy Transition
  35. 35. Transition Pathways • Biobased materials • Bioenergy & biochemicals • Integrated biorefining • Plant cultivation & biomass production • Recycling: water, nutrients, soil
  36. 36. Northern cluster - Agro - Paper - Chemical - Energy - Eems Port BBE Innovation Cluster East - Energy - Biocoatings - Fibres and yams - Paper Biobased Delta - Agro - Chemical (aromatics) Biodelta South- Wing - Chemical - Energy - Biotech - Greenport - Rotterdam Port Biobased Connections Amsterdam - Energy - Chemical Biobased Limburg - Chemical - Medical Regional clusters
  37. 37. Facilitating Role of Goverment giving direction & providing space
  38. 38. Giving Direction giving direction clear and ambitious goals sound rules of the game fine-tuning developments in coherence
  39. 39. Providing Space innovation space mental space, juridical space, organisational space removing barriers stimulating new coalitions
  40. 40. 69 juridical barriers have been identified operational, structural, fundamental and conflicting 23 operational barriers have been resolved 23 fundamental barriers have been discussed 9 conflicting barriers can not be resolved Barriers
  41. 41. structural barriers residual currents considered as waste in law fundamental barriers no level playing field import taxes on bio-ethanol, not on nafta no certification no GMO possible conflicting barriers risks of new chemical compounds and mixtures green gas transport versus elektric transport bio-products and food security Barriers
  42. 42. http://www.agro-chemie.nl/assets/sites/3/Green-Chemistry-Campus-2.jpg
  43. 43. Green Chemistry Campus pearl of the biobased economy campus created by petrochemical company SABIC SABIC opens their laboratories for entrepreneurs results in biobased radical innovations biopolymers,biobased building materials,bio natural colours
  44. 44. Port Company of Rotterdam 3.0 doesn’t make money with container transport but with: adding values to goods upcycling of electronic waste organising in a circle of 100 kms
  45. 45. 3D-Printer maritime industry app-development containertransport biorefinery biopolymeren in Haven maker industry 3.0 Old Harbour Area elektron. waste upcycling Old Harbour Area Stimulate New Combinations
  46. 46. 5 entrepreneurial ecosystems for radical innovation 3D-printing for maritime industry digital logistics waste management & resources production manufacturing industry communication & knowledge Shadow Line for Radical Innovation
  47. 47. Lessons • the first period is relatively easy, thereafter arise winners and losers • natural tendency of the government to fall back in the command-and-control mode • space for frontrunners is of crucial importance [financial, organizational, juridical, mental space] • challenging but cumbersome processes that require smart manoeuvring
  48. 48. vision & ambition network approach strategy & action regional approach facilitating government Success Factors
  49. 49. Future Agenda • more big case studies in European countries • experience with upscaling and implementation • transitions within companies & organisations • multiple actor model [theoretical & empirical]

×