Briner (oecd)durable2015 built to last (2) ccxg gf-march2014

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Briner (oecd)durable2015 built to last (2) ccxg gf-march2014

  1. 1. 1 Climate Change Expert Group Breakout group session outline Part 1 (11:45 – 13:15)  What does “durable” mean?  Structure of the 2015 agreement  Metrics used to express contributions Part 2 (14:30 – 16:00)  Process for revisiting and adjusting contributions Part 3 (16:30 – 18:00)  Continued discussion and next steps
  2. 2. Climate Change Expert Group www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg.htm Gregory Briner, OECD gregory.briner@oecd.org Based on the draft paper “Built to Last: Designing a Flexible and Durable 2015 Climate Change Agreement” by Gregory Briner, Takayoshi Kato and Takashi Hattori Built to Last: Introduction and options for flexibility in the structure and metrics of the 2015 agreement CCXG Global Forum 18 March 2014
  3. 3. 3 Climate Change Expert Group Built to Last: presentation outline  What does “durable” mean?  Structure of the 2015 agreement  Metrics used to express contributions  Questions for discussion Source: John Perivolaris
  4. 4. 4 Climate Change Expert Group What does “durable” mean? “A durable 2015 agreement would be an agreement that is ambitious and fair when it comes into effect from 2020, and continues to be ambitious and fair in response to structural changes and external shocks after 2020…”
  5. 5. 5 Climate Change Expert Group Possible changes and external shocks Scientific Source: Wikimedia Commons Natural disasters Source: NASA Goddard Economic Source: Wikimedia Commons Political Source: Wikimedia Commons Demographic Source: Greg Briner Technological Source: Solar Impulse
  6. 6. 6 Climate Change Expert Group Possible structure of the agreement Information document Information document Information document COP decision COP decision COP decisionCOP decision COP decision Core political and/or legal agreement (with annexes)
  7. 7. 7 Climate Change Expert Group Metrics used to express contributions  The metrics used to express mitigation contributions could affect how flexible the 2015 agreement is  Examples of flexible metrics: emissions intensity, GHG emissions relative to BAU, non-GHG metrics  These metrics can increase responsiveness to external shocks, but also increase uncertainty regarding future environmental outcomes  Multiple contributions by a country expressed using different metrics could be more durable than a single contribution expressed in GHG terms
  8. 8. 8 Climate Change Expert Group Discussion questions  What are possible interpretations of the term “durable” in the context of the 2015 climate change agreement?  How could the 2015 agreement be structured in a durable manner?  Could the use of metrics such as emissions intensity, GHG emissions relative to BAU and non- GHG metrics by some Parties help to make the agreement more durable?

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