4. INTRODUCTION : PROJECT BASICS
• A temporary endeavor undertaken to
create a unique product, service or
result.
• Changing something from the way it is to the
desired state
• Projects can be
• large or small and
• take a short or long time to
complete.
• Defined start and end, specific scope,
cost and duration
– A project ends when
• its objectives have been reached,
or
• the project has been terminated.
• A series of activities
aimed at bringing about
– clearly specified objectives
– within a defined time period and
– with a defined budget
• It is
• performed by people
• constrained by limited resources
• planned, executed and controlled
• Many related activities BUT Focus on the outcome
• Regular teamwork focuses on the work process
6. SIX TYPOLOGIES OF PROJECTS
SIX TYPOLOGY
1 2 3 4 5 6
MARKET-
DRIVEN
INDUSTRIAL
PROJECTS
NEW
INVESTMEN
T PROJECTS
DIRECTLY
PRODUCTIVE
PROJECTS
CAPITAL
INTENSIVE
PROJECTS
DEMAND
BASED
2. CRISIS-
DRIVEN:
MANUFACTU
RING
PROJECTS
EXPANSION
PROJECTS:
INDIRECTLY
PRODUCTIVE
PROJECTS
PEOPLE –
BASED
PROJECTS
NEED
BASED
3. CHANGE-
DRIVEN:
MANAGEME
NT
PROJECTS
UPDATING
PROJECTS
MIXTURE OF
THE TWO
RESOURCE
BASED
RESEARCH
PROJECTS
7. TYPES OF CHANGE AND PROJECTS
Transactional change Transitional change
Undergoing from one
state to another, related
state
Transformational
change
Outcomes Simple and predictable Simple yet
unpredictable or
complex yet predictable
Complex, and
unpredictable
Level of investment Low Higher Highest
Change or
modification in
structure
Little to no Some, incremental Potentially sweeping
and radical
Existing policy Little to no Some modifications Major change
Individual skills and
abilities needed to
implement change
Little to no Some modifications New way of thinking
Role of stakeholders High Very high
8. 8
Change is:
– A process not an event
– Normal & constant, inevitable, & no organization can avoid it
– Vital if an organization is to avoid stagnation to survive, grow &
prosper
– Part of our every day life both at home & at work
– Untidy, entirely predictable & planned changes often needs
adjustment in the light of experience & experimentation
• Natural or evolutionary/ incremental, or
• A radical shift from current to new process
• Planed, i.e.. proactive, or
• Unplanned, reaction to external demands
• Directive, i.e. implemented by ‘top down’ management, or
• Participative, i.e. involved those impacted by the change.
CHARACTERISTICS & TYPES OF CHANGE
9. Transactional change Transitional change
Undergoing from one
state to another,
related state
Transformational
change
Outcomes Simple & predictable Simple yet
unpredictable or
complex yet
predictable
Complex, &
unpredictable
Level of investment Low Higher Highest
Change or
modification in
structure
Little to no Some, incremental Potentially sweeping
& radical
Existing policy Little to no Some modifications Major change
Individual skills &
abilities needed to
implement change
Little to no Some modifications New way of thinking
Role of stakeholders High Very high
3. CHARACTERISTICS & TYPES OF CHANGE
12. 12
GROUP DISCUSSION
• Why do you think that leaders fail to manage
change?
• What factors have triggered you to make the
changes?
(Discuss the internal & external factors)
• Why do you think people resist change?
• What mechanisms has to be used or what measures have to
be taken to overcome the resistance?
13. External
Assitance &
Contributions
Project Project Project Project
Sub Programmes
Program Support Policies, Strategies
Activities
Investments
National Programme
(Government Ownership and Accountability)
Government Development
Strategy
National Development Goal (s)
Existing Conditions
and Problems
RELATION B/N POLICY, SECTOR STRATEGY, PROGRAMS & PROJECTS
14. • National policy: set overall policy objective e.g. National Development policy
• Sectoral policy: Policies for the various sectors of the economy.
• Sectoral strategy: Approaches that should be undertaken to achieve the stated
policies of the government.
• Sub-sectoral strategy: When the sector is large & diverse it is necessary to develop
sub-sector strategies.
• Programs-can be relatively large & diverse, longer term
E.g. National level programs, crop prodn, livestock program, nutrition.
A program may cover a whole sector( e.g. health sector program) or focus on one
part of the health sector( e.g. primary health care program) or be a package of
projects with a common focus/theme; or it may define what is essentially just a
large project with a number of different components.
RELATION B/N POLICY, SECTOR STRATEGY, PROGRAMS & PROJECTS
15. • Devt. Policy
– is converted into reality through projects
– take place within a complex envt of multiple actors, policies, programs, & projects.
• All countries have national plans
• National plans spell a range of economic & social objs & strategies meant to
enhance devt.
• Development plans & projects are closely interlinked.
• Sound development plans require good project just as
• Good projects require sound planning.
RELATION B/N POLICY, SECTOR STRATEGY, PROGRAMS &
PROJECTS
16. Programs
• are planned continuous or ongoing devt investment activities that are not
generally time-bound.
• may consist of a no. of projects with distinctly specified time & resources
Plan is a more or less operationalized versions of general programs.
• Can be long medium & short term plans with specific & quantitative targets.
• Medium term development plans are the main sources of project ideas.
• Plans can also be categorized as indicative, regulatory, indirect &
central/direct.
• Indicative, regulatory & indirect planning may imply greater decentralization
of decision making over investment decisions.
• These have significant role for project identification & preparation.
RELATION B/N POLICY, SECTOR STRATEGY, PROGRAMS &
PROJECTS
17. Projects
• are usually the smallest unit of development programs & plans.
• are derived from the prevailing development policies.
• are fundamental components of the devt efforts of increasing provision of
goods
• e.g. public sector programs.
• are normally included in the public investment planning process wherever
they make a claim on the government budget.
• E.g. where part or all of a public sector project is funded for government
revenue where either public or private sector makes use of government
loan-guarantees.
• Projects that do not make a claim on budgetary resources may not be
included in the public investment planning process.
RELATION B/N POLICY, SECTOR STRATEGY, PROGRAMS &
PROJECTS
18. • Projects can be shorter term, more location specific, more
easily bounded & managed.
• Therefore Project can be defined as
• A project is a complex set of activities where
resources are used in expectation of returns &
which lends it to planning financing &
implementing as a unit. A project usually has a
specific starting point & a specific ending point,
intending to accomplish specific objectives.
RELATION B/N POLICY, SECTOR STRATEGY, PROGRAMS &
PROJECTS
20. PROJECT CYCLE
Upon completion, you will be able to …
• List the purpose and types of project life cycle
models
• Distinguish between project and product life cycle
21. KEY CONCEPTS
• Project phase:
“A collection of
logically
related project
activities
usually
culminating/end
ing in the
completion of a
major
deliverable.”
• Project life
cycle:
“Collectively
the project
phases are
known as the
project life
cycle.”
• Product life
cycle:
• The natural
grouping of
ideas,
decisions, and
actions into
product phases,
from product
conception to
operations to
product phase-
out.
22. ORIGIN OF THE CONCEPT OF PC
• devt projects as the time bounded creation of physical assets
↓
recognition of phases within the project process
↓
concept of the project cycle.
WHAT IS A PROJECT CYCLE ?
• a sequence of events which a project follows.
• Follows the life of a project from the initial idea through to its completion
• Provides a structure to ensure that stakeholders are consulted
• Defines key decisions, information requirements and responsibilities at each phase
PC in practice
• this division is less distinct
• elements of one activity spilling over into one or more of the others.
So
• Comprehensive project planning should be an iterative process
Meaning
• Results in 1stage of z project influence decisions in z other stages
PROJECT CYCLE(PC)
23. • Aka …the Blueprint approach. Why?
• uses the imaginary of blue prints of
engineering drawings
• Projects need to be systematically &
carefully planned in advance &
implemented strictly according to the
defined plan.
Generally, useful approach to Investment In
Capital Intensive Projects.
SUMMARY OF THE STAGES IN PC
STAGE 1: PROJECT CONCEPTION
STAGE 2: PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
STAGE 3: PROJECT PREPARATION
STAGE 4: PROJECT APPRAISAL
STAGE 5: PROJECT SELECTION
STAGE 6: NEGOTIATION & FINANCING
STAGE 7: PLANNING FOR IMPLEMENTATION
STAGE 8: IMPLEMENTATION
STAGE 9: MONITORING & REPORTING:
STAGE 10: EVALUATION:
TRADITIONAL (BLUEPRINT) APPROACH:
Identification Potential projects suggestions emerge from
specialists, local leaders & national devt
strategies.
Identification of potential SHs, particularly 1 SHs.
Carry out pb assessment & decide upon key
objectives.
Assess alternative strategies for meeting objective
Preparation
and analysis
The technical, institutional, economic,
environmental, & financial issues facing the
project studied & addressed
including whether there are alternative methods
for achieving the same objs.
Assessing feasibility as to whether & determining
whether to carry out more advanced planning.
Project plan developed which can be appraised
Appraisal Critical review or independent appraisal of project
plan
Implementatio
n and
Monitoring
The project plan is implemented over a specified
time period.
Monitoring of project performance with a
management information system to enable
correction of implementation problems as they
arise.
Evaluation On-going and final assessment of the success of
the project against original objectives, to learn
lessons to help improve future projects
29. THE PROCESS (ADAPTIVE) APPROACH
• Based on new ideas & experience gained from practical application of
traditional approach, process approach of the WB was developed in
1994.
The process approach model
• reflects more of a process as opposed to a traditional (blueprint)
• is of particular relevance for which beneficiary participation is imp
• has the following successive stages
»Experimentation:
»Piloting
»Demonstrating
»Mainstreaming
30. • Active participation is likely to have many benefits, although it is not a guarantee of
project success
• Achieving full participation is not easy.
• It can also take a lot of time, and conflicting interests are likely to come to the surface
Coercion
Co-operation/
Partnership
Control,
collective action or
Co-learning
Informing
Consultation
Decided by ourselves
Decided by others
Levels of participation
Being manipulated;
No real power
Being informed,
others set the agenda
Being consulted,
Others analyze and
Decide course action
Work with
others
Little input
by others
31. THE PROCESS (ADAPTIVE) APPROACH
1. Experimentation:
devt problems or objectives are defined &
possible solutions, methods of analysis & implementation r
identified
These are then subject to pilot trials for their
appropriateness, adaptability, acceptability, transferability to
local conditions.
Making the project idea/concept originates from local communities
& other beneficiaries as well as on the needs & priorities of
zcommunity.
2. Piloting : is starting small scale projects with trials of different
techniques in a holistic approach to incorporating social, cultural,
physical, intuitional, & ecological actors.
32. THE PROCESS (ADAPTIVE) APPROACH
3. Demonstrating: is conducting trials on representative scale village,
kebele with established mechanism through joint participation.
4. Mainstreaming: is process of extending the project to a large scale
woreda, district region based on the results of demonstration.
As particular methods are found to be successful on an experimental
scale, they are taken successively through wider & more
comprehensive coverage in order to reach a larger public, each stage
growing out of the results & methods of the previous one
33. THE PROCESS (ADAPTIVE) APPROACH
Intrinsic to this approach is the idea that while a general objective
& direction for project intervention can be defined,
• specific actions & services may change as a result of review &
evaluation of individual phases.
• This is sometimes called a process approach,
• to highlight a flexible two way interaction b/n project agents &
consumer or beneficiaries for whom the project is intended.
• It might result, for instance, in redesign of systems of
delivering primary health care or relocation of health centers,
following earlier design & experimentation.
34. THE PROCESS (ADAPTIVE) APPROACH
• It does not change the basic concept of a project as a time
bounded investment
• must still be prepared & implemented (perhaps with successive
stages of experimentation & modification if process approach is
followed) &
• It has found a more ready application in the rural & social sectors
than the industrial & infrastructural sectors, partly
• Because rural & social development is intimately affected by the
reaction of people, as project agents & beneficiaries) & therefore less
easy to plan & define in advance.
• By contrast the blueprint approach remains important for capital
intensive projects where there is paramount need to plan & account
carefully for expenditure incurred in the public sector.
35. THE MIXED APPROACH
• A more recent devt has been to combine elements of both
approaches,
– breaking the project idea down into discrete & distinctive stages
– defining a clear set of objectives for each stage, &
– allowing changes in approach & techniques between stages.
• We need to keep in mind the necessity of managing & implementing
the project as planned, while at the same time retaining as much
flexibility as possible in order to make changes to the overall design
where necessary.
• The point is whether the blueprint or process approach is followed, is
to see beyond the project & to ensure that the efforts lead to the
creation of lasting & beneficial assets.
37. PROJECT LIFE CYCLE FLOW
Know
Problem
Space
Partial
Answer
Partial
Answer
Solution
Space
Don’t Know
Don’t Know
Know
HOW
WHAT
Project Definition
Execution
38. PROJECT LIFE CYCLES AND THEIR EFFECTS
Conceptualization Planning Execution Termination
Uncertainty
Client Interest
Project Stake
Creativity
Resources
39. PROJECT LIFE CYCLE
Time
Start Finish
Cost and
Staffing
level
Initial
Phase
Intermediate
Phases (one
or more) Final
Phase
Milestones :
• defined state of the project
• decision point
42. 1.PROJECT IDENTIFICATION & SCREENING
Mortality of new ideas
• How is a project
identified &
undertaken for
subsequent
implementation?
• Project
identification starts
with objectives,
SWOT analysis &
project idea
generation
• Project appraisal:
involves evaluation
of projects whether
they are worthwhile
in terms of their
financial capabilities
& other aspects
• Project selection:
involves picking one
project or a set of
projects based on
criteria set
43. 1.1.1 PROJECT IDENTIFICATION: MEANING, PHASES &
APPROACHES
• Project Identification would include, for example:
• Analysis of existing situation
• Problems/needs identification
• Problem analysis
• Prioritization of issues
• Decision on whether a project is appropriate
• Definition of the project idea
• Consultation with stakeholders
• Establishment of overall objectives
44. 1.1.2. PHASES OF PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
• Actual project identification
• Description of project idea
• Screening
• Prioritization
45. 1.1.3.WHO IDENTIFIES PROJECTS?
• Producer organisations
• Individual producers
• Marketing organisations
• Private companies - Local
- Foreign
• State enterprises/organisations
• Government ministries
• Development banks
• Other aid agencies (NGOs, bilateral funds)
• Local government
• Politicians/pressure groups
46. 4. ANALYSIS OF EXISTING SITUATION
Information needs:- To the project area
1. Social & political aspects
Attitudes & Beliefs
Political roles
Community organizations
Gender relations
Migration
Previous involvement in development activities
Summary of potential constraints
2. Economic Aspects
Economic Activities
Access to land, market, skills
3. Sectoral information
Health aspects
Education & training
Agriculture
Environment
47. 1.1.4 . FORMAL INFORMATION SOURCES FOR
PROJECT IDEAS
• Policy reviews & devt plans made by central govt ministries
• Sectoral surveys by technical ministries.
• Survey conducted by local govt & regional organization.
• Formal problem diagnosis & analysis exercises.
• Environmental & natural resource surveys
• Reviews & evaluations of past projects.
• Community meetings & public gatherings.
• Participatory rural appraisal(PRA) &Participatory devt programs.
• Private sector, Co-operatives & Parastatal corporate plans.
• Investment identification missions by dev’t & aid donors
48. 1.1.4. SOURCES OF PROJECT IDEAS
Systematic Sources
• Central government policy
reviews/plans
• Sectoral strategies & sub-
sectoral programmes (sectoral
ministries)
• Regional studies (regional &
local government
• Reviews of past projects
• Corporate plans (private sector,
state enterprises, co-operatives)
• Bank/aid donor identification
missions
Unsystematic Sources
• Political expediency &
opportunism
• Local pressure
• Bright ideas!
• Unsystematic does not always
mean worse - just less
predictable
49. 1.1.5 BASIS FOR PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
1. Demand Based
– Local consumer
demand - quantity?
– Export
opportunities
• Price
• Quality
• trade barriers
– Inputs for further
processing
• capacity of
processing
industry?
2. Resource Based
– Land suitability
– Existing raw material
production
– Availability of labour
& skills
– Existing fixed assets
– Agro-industries may
have demand for raw
materials & resource
base (local
production) -
problem of matching
capacity with raw
material supply
– Natural resource base
important for energy,
mineral exploitation
& development of
tourism
3.Need Based
– Basic health &
education
– Social security
– Domestic water
supply?
– Approach for
estimating need
may be similar to
projection of
demand but need
does not
presuppose ability
to pay
50. TECHNIQUES FOR PROJECT
IDENTIFICATION(ANALYTICAL DIMENSIONS)
Four main elements when analyzing a development
problem.
Stakeholder Analysis,
including preliminary institutional capacity
assessment, gender analysis & needs of vulnerable
groups
Problem Analysis
(Profile of the main problems including cause & effect
r/ships
Analysing of Objectives
(image of an improved situation in the future)
Analysis of Strategies
(comparison of different options to address a given
situation.
53. 1. OUTLINE(CONTENT)
• Prefeasibility study( Objs, Purpose, Content)
• Feasibility study( Need, Types, Outline)
• Facets of project analysis
– Market & demand analysis ( components, objs, steps)
– Technical analysis components, objs, steps
– Organizational analysis
– Financial analysis
– Economic analysis
– Environmental analysis
• These jointly determine feasibility or viability of a
given project though they are treated differently.
• Correlation of each element is important.
54. 2. PROJECT PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS
• The project idea must be elaborated in a more detailed
study.
• A definite decision to be made on the project by FS.
• But feasibility study is costly and time consuming task.
• Therefore, before assigning larger funds for such a study,
further assessment of the project idea might be done in a
Prefeasibility study.
55. PRE-FEASIBILITY FEASIBILITY
Undertake detailed analysis of the
development situation and constraints
• Confirm the development situation and
develop the rationale for undertaking the
project
Refine the project idea and make a
preliminary assessment of the viability of
alternative approaches
To examine the viability of the options in
detail and recommend a preferred option
Define achievable outcome for the project
or to define possible design options or
concepts that may merit further
investigation
Confirm & refine the achievable outcomes
Develop the design to the point where it
is costed and can be tendered and
implemented
Make a preliminary identification of risk
areas and assess the importance of these
risks
Develop a full risk analysis which can be
used by implementers
Develop performance indicators as an
integral part of the design
Develop TOR for a feasibility study if this
is deemed appropriate
Define further data collection and analysis
requirements and possible data sources
for feasibility or design stage.
Develop scope of services, specifications…
against which the project can be
implemented
56. FEASIBILITY STUDY
• The core of the proposal preparation process
• To provide the basis for choosing the most desirable options
• Consideration of the following basic questions:
– Does it conform to the development and environmental
priorities, such as PRSP?MDG?SDG?GTP?
– Is it technically and scientifically sound, and is the
methodology the best among the available alternatives?
– Is it administratively manageable?
– Is it financially justifiable and feasible?
– Is it compatible with the culture of the beneficiaries?
– Is it likely to be sustained beyond the intervention period?
57. PROJECT DOCUMENT FORMULATION
• The concept proposal/PREFESABILITY is modified,
transformed and expanded into a project document
throughout the project formulation phase
• The project document is a summary of the situation
assessment, justification of methodology and strategies for
achieving the targeted changes. Since project formulation is an
iterative process, it is important to consult again with selected
partners and colleagues as the document is formulated.
• Add logical framework matrix, details on budget,
implementation plan and modalities to the existing concept
proposal
• Project and project document formulation are simultaneous
and iterative processes
• The project document come from each step taken through
project cycle phases 1 and 2
58. NEED FOR FEASIBILITY STUDY
• Feasibility studies help organizations/ entrepreneurs to
make investment decision
• Needed by agencies and organization to assess
viability of project for giving assistance
• Investment decisions arrived through feasibility studies
reduce the mortality of infant small industry
• Broad industrial programs for the areas are converted
into viable project through feasibility studies
59. WHO MAKES FEASIBILITY STUDIES
• Development organizations
• Consultants
• Entrepreneurs/public enterprises
• Entrepreneurs aided and assisted by
experts
• Development organizations and
consultants working with the
entrepreneurs in the preparation
60. TYPES OF FEASIBILITY STUDIES
• Tailor-made studies to suit a
particular entrepreneur/enterprise
• Study made for a particular area for
attracting prospective entrepreneurs
61. APPROACHES TO IDENTIFY INVESTMENT PROJECTS
1. Sectoral approach-
• Identification (analysis) of the overall Investment potential in DC &
• the general interest of developed countries in investing in DC
• Compilation of area on specific sector
• Assess current economic situation of DC ( study of structural pbs)
2. Enterprise ( microeconomic) approach
• Identification of specific investment requirements of individual
project promoters in both DC & developed countries.
• Review of ideas by promoters, promotion offices, and financial
institutions in DC and developed countries
62. .1 Opportunity study- is a study made to
identify investment opportunities or identify
project ideas
Basis for opportunity Studies
• Natural resources
• Existing agricultural Pattern
• Future demand for certain consumer goods
• Imports
• Export possibilities
• Manufacturing sector successful in other countries
• Possible inter-linkage
• Possible extensions of exiting lines of manufacture
• Policies(industrial….)
63. TYPES OF PROJECT OPPORTUNITY STUDIES
General opportunity studies Specific opportunity
studies
1 General opportunity studies GOS
• Made to pin – pointing out specific investment
proposals
• Implemented through state & institutional
agencies
Three categories
• Area studies
• Sub-sectoral studies
• Resource based studies
64. GOS
A. Area studies: seeks to identify opportunities in a given
area such as zone or region.
Outline
Basic features of the area (area size & physical features)
Population, occupational pattern, per capita income &
socio-economic backwards
Leading exports and imports
Basic exploited & potential exploitable production factors
Infrastructure facilities
Estimation of present demand &
Identification of opportunity for development
Identification of project objective & suitable strategies
Estimated capital cost (lump sum)
Major input requirements
Further project requirement
65. GOS
B. Sub sectoral studies/industry studies
• seeks to identify opportunities in a delimited
sub-sector/industry such as building material or
food processing
C. Resource based studies
• designed to reveal opportunities based on the
utilization of natural, agricultural or industrial
products such as forest based industries….
66. 2. SPECIFIC OPPORTUNITY STUDY
• More common than general opportunity study
• The transformation of a project idea into a
broad proposition
• Often undertaken by the prospective investor
or an entrepreneurial group
• The objective is to stimulate investor response
67. 2 SUPPORT (FUNCTIONAL) STUDIES
• cover specific aspects of an investment project
• are required as prerequisites for or in support of pre-feasibility
& feasibility studies, particularly for large-scale investment
proposals.
• Examples of such studies are
– Market studies,
– Raw materials and factory supply studies,
– Laboratory and pilot plant tests,
– Location studies,
– Environmental impact assessment,
– Economies of scale studies,
– Equipment selection studies, etc
• The contents vary depending on type and the nature of the
projects.
• Conclusions should be clear enough to give direction to the
subsequent stage of project preparation.
68. • When a basic input may be a decisive factor in determining the
viability of a project, then a support study is carried out before
commissioning a pre-feasibility or a feasibility study.
• A support study is undertaken after completion of a feasibility
study when it is discovered in the course of the study that it
would be safer to identify a particular aspect of the project in
much greater detail although the preliminary evaluation as part
of the decision making process may commence earlier.
69. GENERAL OUTLINE OF A FEASIBILITY
STUDY
1. Summary
2. Project background and history
3. Market analysis and marketing concept
4. Raw materials and supplies
5. Location, site and Environment
6. Engineering and Technology
7. Human resources
8. Project Implementation schedule
9. Financial analysis and investment Appraisal
– Total investment costs
– Total costs of products sold
– Project financing
– Investment appraisal national economic evaluation
– Aspects of uncertainty
10. Conclusion
70. Introduction to Chapter 2 : FACETS OF
PROJECT ANALYSIS
• Project analysis refers to analyzing a project from various
perspectives so as to determine its viability & sustainability.
• There are six major dimensions to project preparation & analysis.
• These jointly determine feasibility or viability of a given project
though they are treated differently.
• Correlation of each element is important.
• Project analysis consists of :
– Technical Analysis
– Organizational /institutional analysis
– Market/demand analysis
– Financial analysis/Discounted & undiscounted measures
– Environmental analysis
Advanced
– Economic (Social cost benefit) analysis
– Risk Analysis
– Sustainability Analysis
– Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA
