PI class 1.pptx

Course Title: Project Identification and Analysis
Credit Hours: _____________3___________________
Prerequisite: Fundamentals of Project Management
Course Classifications: Core

Recap from Fundamentals of PM The concept of Project and Project cycle
PROJECT
DEFINING A PROJECT
• A temporary endeavor undertaken to create
a unique product, service or result.
• Changing something from the way it is to the
desired state
• Projects can be
• large or small and
• take a short or long time to complete.
• Defined start and end, specific scope, cost
and duration
– A project ends when
• its objectives have been reached,
or
• the project has been terminated.
• A series of activities
aimed at bringing about
– clearly specified objectives
– within a defined time period and
– with a defined budget
• It is
• performed by people
• constrained by limited resources
• planned, executed and controlled
• Many related activities BUT Focus on the outcome
• Regular teamwork focuses on the work process

HOW TO CATEGORIZE DIFFERENT TYPES OF PROJECTS
SIX TYPOLOGY
1 2 3 4 5 6
MARKET-
DRIVEN
INDUSTRIAL
PROJECTS
NEW
INVESTMENT
PROJECTS
DIRECTLY
PRODUCTIVE
PROJECTS
CAPITAL
INTENSIVE
PROJECTS
DEMAND
BASED
2. CRISIS-
DRIVEN:
MANUFACTU
RING
PROJECTS
EXPANSION
PROJECTS:
INDIRECTLY
PRODUCTIVE
PROJECTS
PEOPLE –BASED
PROJECTS
NEED
BASED
3. CHANGE-
DRIVEN:
MANAGEMEN
T PROJECTS
UPDATING
PROJECTS
MIXTURE OF
THE TWO
RESOURCE
BASED
RESEARCH
PROJECTS

TYPES OF CHANGE AND PROJECTS
Transactional change Transitional change
Undergoing from one
state to another, related
state
Transformational
change
Outcomes Simple and predictable Simple yet
unpredictable or
complex yet predictable
Complex, and
unpredictable
Level of investment Low Higher Highest
Change or
modification in
structure
Little to no Some, incremental Potentially sweeping
and radical
Existing policy Little to no Some modifications Major change
Individual skills and
abilities needed to
implement change
Little to no Some modifications New way of thinking
Role of stakeholders High Very high

• National policy: set overall policy objective e.g. National Development policy
• Sectoral policy: Policies for the various sectors of the economy.
• Sectoral strategy: Approaches that should be undertaken to achieve the stated
policies of the government.
• Sub-sectoral strategy: When the sector is large & diverse it is necessary to develop
sub-sector strategies.
• Programs-can be relatively large & diverse, longer term
• E.g. National level programs, crop prodn, livestock program, nutrition.
A program may cover a whole sector( e.g. health sector program) or focus on one
part of the health sector( e.g. primary health care program) or be a package of
projects with a common focus/theme; or it may define what is essentially just a
large project with a number of different components.
RELATION B/N POLICY, SECTOR STRATEGY, PROGRAMS & PROJECTS

• Devt. Policy
– is converted into reality through projects
– take place within a complex envt of multiple actors, policies, programs, & projects.
• All countries have national plans
• National plans spell a range of economic & social objs & strategies meant to
enhance devt.
• Development plans & projects are closely interlinked.
• Sound development plans require good project just as
• Good projects require sound planning.

Programs
• are planned continuous or ongoing devt investment activities that are not
generally time-bound.
• may consist of a no. of projects with distinctly specified time & resources
Plan is a more or less operationalized versions of general programs.
• Can be long medium & short term plans with specific & quantitative targets.
• Medium term development plans are the main sources of project ideas.
• Plans can also be categorized as indicative, regulatory, indirect & central/direct.
• Indicative, regulatory & indirect planning may imply greater decentralization of
decision making over investment decisions.
• These have significant role for project identification & preparation.

Projects
• are usually the smallest unit of development programs & plans.
• are derived from the prevailing development policies.
• are fundamental components of the devt efforts of increasing provision of goods
• e.g. public sector programs.
• are normally included in the public investment planning process wherever they
make a claim on the government budget.
• E.g. where part or all of a public sector project is funded for government revenue
where either public or private sector makes use of government loan-guarantees.
• Projects that do not make a claim on budgetary resources may not be included in
the public investment planning process.

• Projects can be shorter term, more location specific, more easily
bounded & managed.
• Therefore Project can be defined as
• A project is a complex set of activities where resources
are used in expectation of returns & which lends it to
planning financing & implementing as a unit. A project
usually has a specific starting point & a specific ending
point, intending to accomplish specific objectives.

PROJECT CYCLE
Upon completion, you will be able to …
• List the purpose and types of project life cycle models
• Distinguish between project and product life cycle
• Define the role of phase reviews in PM
• Apply a model to a hypothetical and a real project

KEY CONCEPTS
• Project phase: “A
collection of
logically related
project activities
usually
culminating in the
completion of a
major
deliverable.”
• Project life cycle:
“Collectively the
project phases
are known as the
project life cycle.”
• Product life cycle:
• The natural
grouping of ideas,
decisions, and
actions into
product phases,
from product
conception to
operations to
product phase-
out.

ORIGIN OF THE CONCEPT OF PC
• devt projects as the time bounded creation of physical assets
↓
recognition of phases within the project process
↓
concept of the project cycle.
WHAT IS A PROJECT CYCLE ?
• a sequence of events which a project follows.
• Follows the life of a project from the initial idea through to its completion
• Provides a structure to ensure that stakeholders are consulted
• Defines key decisions, information requirements and responsibilities at each phase
PC in practice
• this division is less distinct
• elements of one activity spilling over into one or more of the others.
So
• Comprehensive project planning should be an iterative process
Meaning
• Results in 1stage of z project influence decisions in z other stages
PROJECT CYCLE(PC)

• Aka …the Blueprint approach. Why?
• uses the imaginary of blue prints of
engineering drawings
• Projects need to be systematically &
carefully planned in advance &
implemented strictly according to the
defined plan.
Generally, useful approach to Investment In
Capital Intensive Projects.
SUMMARY OF THE STAGES IN PC
STAGE 1: PROJECT CONCEPTION
STAGE 2: PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
STAGE 3: PROJECT PREPARATION
STAGE 4: PROJECT APPRAISAL
STAGE 5: PROJECT SELECTION
STAGE 6: NEGOTIATION & FINANCING
STAGE 7: PLANNING FOR IMPLEMENTATION
STAGE 8: IMPLEMENTATION
STAGE 9: MONITORING & REPORTING:
STAGE 10: EVALUATION:
TRADITIONAL (BLUEPRINT) APPROACH:
Identification Potential projects suggestions emerge from
specialists, local leaders & national devt
strategies.
Identification of potential SHs, particularly 1 SHs.
Carry out pb assessment & decide upon key
objectives.
Assess alternative strategies for meeting objective
Preparation
and analysis
The technical, institutional, economic,
environmental, & financial issues facing the
project studied & addressed
including whether there are alternative methods
for achieving the same objs.
Assessing feasibility as to whether & determining
whether to carry out more advanced planning.
Project plan developed which can be appraised
Appraisal Critical review or independent appraisal of project
plan
Implementatio
n and
Monitoring
The project plan is implemented over a specified
time period.
Monitoring of project performance with a
management information system to enable
correction of implementation problems as they
arise.
Evaluation On-going and final assessment of the success of
the project against original objectives, to learn
lessons to help improve future projects

Programming
Implementation Formulation
Evaluation Identification
Financing
decision
Financin
g
decision
EXAMPLE OF THE PROJECT CYCLE

Project Cycle
Identification
Phase 1
Review and
approval
Phase 3
Preparation and
formulation
Phase 2
Evaluation
Phase 5
Implementation
Phase 4
The UNEP Project cycle

• Based on new ideas & experience gained from practical application of
traditional approach, process approach of the WB was developed in
1994.
The process approach model
• reflects more of a process as opposed to a traditional (blueprint)
• is of particular relevance for which beneficiary participation is imp
• has the following successive stages
»Experimentation:
»Piloting
»Demonstrating
»Mainstreaming
THE PROCESS (ADAPTIVE) APPROACH

• Active participation is likely to have many benefits, although it is not a guarantee of project
success
• Achieving full participation is not easy.
• It can also take a lot of time, and conflicting interests are likely to come to the surface
Coercion
Co-operation/
Partnership
Control,
collective action or
Co-learning
Informing
Consultation
Decided by ourselves
Decided by others
Levels of participation
Being manipulated;
No real power
Being informed,
others set the agenda
Being consulted,
Others analyze and
Decide course action
Work with
others
Little input
by others

1. Experimentation:
devt problems or objectives are defined &
possible solutions, methods of analysis & implementation r identified
These are then subject to pilot trials for their
appropriateness, adaptability, acceptability, transferability to local
conditions.
Making the project idea/concept originates from local communities &
other beneficiaries as well as on the needs & priorities of zcommunity.
2. Piloting : is starting small scale projects with trials of different techniques in
a holistic approach to incorporating social, cultural, physical, intuitional, &
ecological actors.

3. Demonstrating: is conducting trials on representative scale village,
kebele with established mechanism through joint participation.
4. Mainstreaming: is process of extending the project to a large scale
woreda, district region based on the results of demonstration.
As particular methods are found to be successful on an experimental
scale, they are taken successively through wider & more
comprehensive coverage in order to reach a larger public, each stage
growing out of the results & methods of the previous one

Intrinsic to this approach is the idea that while a general objective &
direction for project intervention can be defined,
• specific actions & services may change as a result of review &
evaluation of individual phases.
• This is sometimes called a process approach,
• to highlight a flexible two way interaction b/n project agents &
consumer or beneficiaries for whom the project is intended.
• It might result, for instance, in redesign of systems of delivering
primary health care or relocation of health centers, following earlier
design & experimentation.

• It does not change the basic concept of a project as a time bounded
investment
• must still be prepared & implemented (perhaps with successive stages of
experimentation & modification if process approach is followed) &
• It has found a more ready application in the rural & social sectors than the
industrial & infrastructural sectors, partly
• Because rural & social development is intimately affected by the reaction of
people, as project agents & beneficiaries) & therefore less easy to plan &
define in advance.
• By contrast the blueprint approach remains important for capital intensive
projects where there is paramount need to plan & account carefully for
expenditure incurred in the public sector.

• A more recent devt has been to combine elements of both approaches,
– breaking the project idea down into discrete & distinctive stages
– defining a clear set of objectives for each stage, &
– allowing changes in approach & techniques between stages.
• We need to keep in mind the necessity of managing & implementing the
project as planned, while at the same time retaining as much flexibility as
possible in order to make changes to the overall design where necessary.
• The point is whether the blueprint or process approach is followed, is to see
beyond the project & to ensure that the efforts lead to the creation of
lasting & beneficial assets.
THE MIXED APPROACH

CHAPTER 1. PROJECT IDENTIFICATION1.
PROJECT IDENTIFICATION

CHAPTER 1. PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
Recap from Fundamentals of PM The concept
of Project and Project cycle
1.1 PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
PHASES OF PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
WHO IDENTIFIES PROJECTS?
SOURCES OF PROJECT IDEAS-FORMAL
INFORMATION SOURCES
BASIS FOR PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
1.2 FRAMEWORKS FOR PROJECT
IDENTIFICATION AND DESIGN
THEORY OF CHANGE
RESULTS FRAMEWORKS
LOGICAL FRAMEWORKS
LOGIC MODELS
1.3 ANALYSIS FOR PROJECT
IDENTIFICATION AND SELECTION
NEEDS ASSESSMENTS
STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS
PROBLEM ANALYSIS
OBJECTIVES ANALYSIS
ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY ANALYSIS
1.4 PREPARATION OF PREFEASIBILITY
STUDY AND FEASIBILITY STUDY
OPPORTUNITY STUDIES
GENERAL OPPORTUNITY STUDIES
SPECIFIC OPPORTUNITY STUDIES
SUPPORT STUDIES
PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDIES
PURPOSE OF A PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR
DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS
KEY TASKS TO BE UNDERTAKEN
PREFEASIBILITY STUDY DOCUMENT: DETAILED
CONTENT
PROJECT PREPARATION STEPS
ANALYSIS
• PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
• PRELIMINARY RISK ASSESSMENT
• PRELIMINARY SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
• FORTHCOMING FEASIBILITY DESIGN WORK
• FEASIBILITY STUDY
• KEY TASKS TO BE UNDERTAKEN
• DETAILED PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT
CONTENT

1. Project Identification & Screening
Objectives
Alternative
Project
Possibilities
SWOT
Internal
External
Brainstorming
Criteria
Screening
Candidate Project
Proposals

1.PROJECT IDENTIFICATION & SCREENING
Mortality of new ideas
• How is a project
identified &
undertaken for
subsequent
implementation?
• Project identification
starts with objectives,
SWOT analysis &
project idea
generation
• Project appraisal:
involves evaluation of
projects whether
they are worthwhile
in terms of their
financial capabilities
& other aspects
• Project selection:
involves picking one
project or a set of
projects based on
criteria set

1.1.1 PROJECT IDENTIFICATION: MEANING, PHASES & APPROACHES
• Project Identification would include, for example:
• Analysis of existing situation
• Problems/needs identification
• Problem analysis
• Prioritization of issues
• Decision on whether a project is appropriate
• Definition of the project idea
• Consultation with stakeholders
• Establishment of overall objectives

1.1.2. PHASES OF PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
• Actual project identification
• Description of project idea
• Screening
• Prioritization

1.1.3.WHO IDENTIFIES PROJECTS?
• Producer organisations
• Individual producers
• Marketing organisations
• Private companies - Local
- Foreign
• State enterprises/organisations
• Government ministries
• Development banks
• Other aid agencies (NGOs, bilateral funds)
• Local government
• Politicians/pressure groups

4. ANALYSIS OF EXISTING SITUATION
Information needs:- To the project area
1. Social & political aspects
 Attitudes & Beliefs
 Political roles
 Community organizations
 Gender relations
 Migration
 Previous involvement in development activities
 Summary of potential constraints
2. Economic Aspects
 Economic Activities
 Access to land, market, skills
3. Sectoral information
 Health aspects
 Education & training
 Agriculture
 Environment

1.1.4 . FORMAL INFORMATION SOURCES FOR PROJECT IDEAS
• Policy reviews & devt plans made by central govt ministries
• Sectoral surveys by technical ministries.
• Survey conducted by local govt & regional organization.
• Formal problem diagnosis & analysis exercises.
• Environmental & natural resource surveys
• Reviews & evaluations of past projects.
• Community meetings & public gatherings.
• Participatory rural appraisal(PRA) &Participatory devt programs.
• Private sector, Co-operatives & Parastatal corporate plans.
• Investment identification missions by dev’t & aid donors

1.1.4. SOURCES OF PROJECT IDEAS
Systematic Sources
• Central government policy
reviews/plans
• Sectoral strategies & sub-sectoral
programmes (sectoral ministries)
• Regional studies (regional & local
government
• Reviews of past projects
• Corporate plans (private sector,
state enterprises, co-operatives)
• Bank/aid donor identification
missions
Unsystematic Sources
• Political expediency &
opportunism
• Local pressure
• Bright ideas!
• Unsystematic does not always
mean worse - just less
predictable

1.1.5 BASIS FOR PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
1. Demand Based
– Local consumer
demand - quantity?
– Export opportunities
• Price
• Quality
• trade barriers
– Inputs for further
processing
• capacity of
processing
industry?
2. Resource Based
– Land suitability
– Existing raw material
production
– Availability of labour &
skills
– Existing fixed assets
– Agro-industries may
have demand for raw
materials & resource
base (local production)
- problem of matching
capacity with raw
material supply
– Natural resource base
important for energy,
mineral exploitation &
development of
tourism
3.Need Based
– Basic health &
education
– Social security
– Domestic water
supply?
– Approach for
estimating need may
be similar to
projection of
demand but need
does not presuppose
ability to pay

7. TECHNIQUES FOR PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
Four main elements when analyzing a development problem.
Stakeholder Analysis,
including preliminary institutional capacity assessment,
gender analysis & needs of vulnerable groups
Problem Analysis
(Profile of the main problems including cause & effect
r/ships
Analysing of Objectives
(image of an improved situation in the future)
Analysis of Strategies
(comparison of different options to address a given
situation.

40
Change is:
– A process not an event
– Normal & constant, inevitable, & no organization can avoid it
– Vital if an organization is to avoid stagnation to survive, grow & prosper
– Part of our every day life both at home & at work
– Untidy, entirely predictable & planned changes often needs adjustment
in the light of experience & experimentation
• Natural or evolutionary/ incremental, or
• A radical shift from current to new process
• Planed, i.e.. proactive, or
• Unplanned, reaction to external demands
• Directive, i.e. implemented by ‘top down’ management, or
• Participative, i.e. involved those impacted by the change.
CHARACTERISTICS & TYPES OF CHANGE

Transactional change Transitional change
Undergoing from one
state to another,
related state
Transformational
change
Outcomes Simple & predictable Simple yet
unpredictable or
complex yet
predictable
Complex, &
unpredictable
Level of investment Low Higher Highest
Change or
modification in
structure
Little to no Some, incremental Potentially sweeping
& radical
Existing policy Little to no Some modifications Major change
Individual skills &
abilities needed to
implement change
Little to no Some modifications New way of thinking
Role of stakeholders High Very high
3. CHARACTERISTICS & TYPES OF CHANGE

Transactional’ Change’ or'‘ Transformational’
Change?'
• Transformatve'change'goes'beyond'knowledge,'capaci0es’

43
Transitional
Change
Transformational
Change
Transactional
Change
Incremental
Change
Time frame
Magnitude
of
change

44
GROUP DISCUSSION 1
• Why do you think people resist change?
• What mechanisms has to be used or what measures have to
be taken to overcome the resistance?

45
13. IDENTIFY WHERE DOES POWER LIE?
Where does power lie?
Power Bases
• Legitimate authority
• Control of resources
• Expert Power
• Reward & punishment
• Personal power
• Networks
Determine whose support is most important
Whom to influence?
1. Support from above
2. Peer group support
– Allies (High trust/high agreement).
– Opponents (High trust/do not agree with the change).
– Bedfellows (Low trust/high agreement due to their selfish interest).
– Fence sitters.
– Adversaries (Low trust/high disagreement).
3. Team Support

46
GROUP DISCUSSION 2
• Why do you think that leaders fail to manage
change?
• What factors have triggered you to make the
changes?
(Discuss the internal & external factors)

1.2 PROJECT DESIGN-THEORY OF
CHANGE
How a Theory of Change helps you clarify the cause-and-
effect relationship at the heart of your project
• By the end of the session, you will be able to:
• to describe the purposes, elements & process for refining a Theory
of Change (ToC).
• Describe the benefits of a Theory of Change
• Define the three elements needed to construct a Theory of Change
• Identify how the Theory of Change informs the program design
•

1. WHAT IS THEORY OF CHANGE
• A hypothesized series of changes that
are expected to occur in a given
context as the result of specific
actions.
• The ToC makes explicit how a
program/activity design team thinks
outputs from their interventions will
interact with other concurrent
interventions & contextual conditions
to stimulate or enable a series of
outcomes that will ultimately lead to
the achievement of desired objectives.
2. WHY DO WE NEED IT?
• To develop a causal pathway to
identify necessary & sufficient
outcomes needed to achieve a goal
• To develop a roadmap that shows
how a set of actions would help
achieve a goal
• To identify & highlight
interventions & assumptions that
are critical to produce an outcome
• To identify critical areas addressed
by external actors & how the
project will link to them

1. WHAT IS THEORY OF CHANGE
• ‘a dynamic, critical thinking process,
• makes the initiative clear and transparent - it underpins strategic planning.
• It is developed in a participatory way over time, following a logical structure that
is rigorous and specific, and that can meet a quality test by the stakeholder.
• The terminology is not important, it is about buying into the critical thinking.’

50
Project Level Goal
Purpose Level
Outcome
Purpose Level
Outcome
Purpose Level
Outcome
Pathways of Change
Output
Immediate
Outcome
Immediate
Outcome
Sub-Purpose
Outcome
Output Output
Sub-Purpose
Outcome
Immediate
Outcome
Sub-Purpose
Outcome
3.TOC CONCEPTUAL MODEL
Output
Output
Immediate
Outcome

Who is using theory of change in international
development?
• Theory of change comes from both evaluation and social change traditions, so it is
being used both by smaller civil society organisations and by donors
• Development agencies and organizations are mainly using theory of change for
evaluation, but it is increasingly being used for programme design and to guide
implementation
• Perceived benefits include an integrated approach to design, implementation and
evaluation and better analysis of the programme context than other approaches

What is theory of change in practice?
• The concepts that are most common across theory of change thinking are: context,
actors and a sequence of logically-linked events leading to long-term change,
although there are many combinations and differently developed applications of
these
• Variations exist in the types, scope and level of detail of theories of change seen
amongst donors, implementing agencies, civil society organizations and NGOs, and
evaluators, reflecting their different purposes and needs
• Theory of change is viewed as a more realistic and flexible thinking tool than
current logical framework approaches

Why are the ‘assumptions’ so important in theory of
change thinking?
• Assumptions are important because they are the ‘theories’ in theory of change
thinking
• Assumptions are hard to access because they are deeply held perceptions that
have become ‘rules of thumb’ that are taken for granted
• Focusing, checking and testing assumptions can improve them and inspire new
ways of addressing issues

What makes a good quality theory of change process
and product - or ‘good enough’?
• Quality comes from quality of the thinking process, how the important concepts
are captured and how it is used
• Different quality criteria were highlighted for programme design theory of change
than were for theory for evaluation
• Usefulness, ownership and clarity were three main quality criteria

How should theory of change thinking be
represented?
• Visual representations are useful to communicate the conceptual analysis, but
should be regarded as only one aspect of the ‘theory of change’, a narrative and
on-going review processes are also needed
• Important assumptions are often revealed when the diagram is created through a
group process
• The visual representation should stand up to scrutiny so that concepts and
meaning can be grasped by others and stimulate discussion

How can evidence be used to support a theory of
change process?
• The role of evidence is to check and challenge assumptions, broaden the range of
strategic options that may be relevant to the context, and strengthen the quality of
the hypotheses to provide a confident basis for action
• Triangulating between multiple sources of evidence – academic and community,
qualitative as well as quantitative - is important to ensure a breadth of
perspectives to inform the analysis
• Some mapping of the evidence for causal pathways, for example value chains,
general budget support, have been mapped through evaluations and can provide a
useful starting point, as can formal initiatives such as synthetic reviews.

How is theory of change thinking being used for
monitoring, evaluation and impact assessment?
• Examples suggest that theory of change thinking brings greater clarity and
robustness to the concepts of impact and supports useful frameworks for tracking
changes and analyzing linkages
• Theories of change provide a good basis for evidencing impact and inferring causal
relationships to demonstrate results.
• As theory-based evaluation meets theory of change thinking for programmes,
appropriate standards fortesting theories of change will need to be further debated
.

How can theory of change thinking help with complex
aspects of programmes?
• Most programs have complicated or complex aspects, theory of change can help
to identify and deal with them positively
• Some donors are starting to work with a more adaptive management approach
• Theory of change thinking can help guide data collection to inform
interpretations of complex situations during implementation, but there is much
more to be learned about working with complexity in practice.

Selected agencies, foundations, programmes and initiatives working with theory of
change in international development, mapped through Comic Relief and current
review

Applications of theory of change thinking

4. ELEMENTS OF THEORY OF CHANGE : DIAGRAMS
Community
Problem/Need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
70
While the term theory of change may be new to you, the elements are not new to u.
A theory of change has three main elements:
community problem or need to be addressed.
the intended outcome – if you deliver the intervention according to plan, it will bring about a
measurable positive change in the community in relation to your targeted need.
There is a specific intervention, a set of activities that you have chosen to address the need
based on evidence that a similar approach has worked in the past.
As you develop a theory of change for an issue that your program will address, you identify
where you are now, as well as the change for which you are programming. You will choose
certain activities based upon their link to your desired outcomes.

5. THEORY OF CHANGE PERSPECTIVE
the most effective
set of activities
for volunteers
& participants
Community
Problem/Need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
71
• Looks at cause & effect relationships
Adapted from www.theoryofchange.org/about/
Developing a theory of change requires you
• to articulate assumptions underlying your choice of activities
• by documenting why you think the activities will lead to the intended
change.
• Identifies specific interventions to achieve the desired result
• Shifts thinking from “what we are doing” to focus on “what we want to
achieve”

5. THEORY OF CHANGE ELEMENTS
Community
Problem/Need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
Evidence
•Guides choice of intervention
•Supports cause-effect relationship
Statistics
documenting the
need
72
Underlying elements to main elements are:
1. Data that documents the extent & severity of the community
problem/need you will address; &
2. Evidence that informs your understanding of why a particular
intervention will result in the change identified in the outcome.

Everyday Life Example
• I have strep throat (problem)
• I will take antibiotics (intervention)
• I will get better (outcome)
73
Strep throat Antibiotics Be Healthy
Evidence
Evidence:
 Guides choice of intervention
 Supports cause-effect
relationship
• But which antibiotic(s) fight strep the best?
• (Look at evidence to make the choice)

Example:
Statistics on the number
of students at below
grade level in program’s
service area; Research on
why reading proficiency
by 3rd grade is important.
Children reading
below grade level
in 3rd grade
74
Community
Problem/need

Example:
Community
Problem/need
Intended
Outcome
Children reading
below grade level
in 3rd grade
Students are able to
read at 3rd grade
level (as measured
by 3rd grade reading
exam)
75

Example:
Community
Problem/need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
Evidence: Research on building block skills leading to
reading proficiency. Research on design, frequency,
duration of tutoring sessions.
Children reading
below grade level
in 3rd grade
Students are able to
read at 3rd grade
level (as measured
by 3rd grade reading
exam)
Individualized
tutoring 3
times/week for 20
min on five “building
block” literacy skills
through reading,
writing & verbal
communication
activities
76

THEORY OF CHANGE ELEMENTS
Community
Problem/Need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
Evidence
Statistics
documenting the
problem/need
77
• Community Problem/Need is the specific issue your project,
with its specific intervention (service activity), is designed to
address. What is the extent & severity of this need in the
community?

THEORY OF CHANGE ELEMENTS
78
• Statistics
• documenting the
problem/need

Data documenting problem/need
should answer these questions:
• Scope:
– Who & how many are directly affected?
– How severe is this?
• Significance:
– What makes this a compelling need?
– Is it likely to become worse?
– What will happen if we do nothing?
• Cause(s):
– Why does the need exist?
– How is it perpetuated?
Healthy Futures
Program Example
• Scope:
– National Survey of Children & Health found
childhood obesity in State X increased 23%
between 2003 & 2007 – the 2nd fastest rate
of increase in US (2010). CDC data show
nearly one-third of children & teens are
obese or overweight in Webb County
(2009).
• Significance:
– Obese children found to become obese
adults
– Links between childhood obesity & early
onset of cardiovascular disease, & Type II
diabetes
– Webb County rising in state & national
averages for cardiovascular disease
– Long term health care costs rising
• Causes:
– Diet, sedentary lifestyle

INTENDED OUTCOME
• What change are you hoping to make related to the
identified need?
Community
Need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
Evidence
Statistics
documenting the
need
80

IDENTIFYING THE INTENDED OUTCOME
• Healthy Futures Program Example
• Possible outcomes to measure:
– Increased knowledge of what is “healthy food”
– More frequent choice of healthy foods to eat
– More frequent involvement in physical activity or exercise
– Improved physical condition
81

INTERVENTION
• An intervention is the specific set of activities in which
participants & volunteers will be engaged.
• What is the best way to achieve the intended
outcome?
Community
Need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
Evidence
Statistics
documenting the
need
82

INTERVENTION
• An intervention is the specific set of activities in which
participants & volunteers will be engaged. What is the
best way to achieve the intended outcome?
Community
Need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
Evidence
Statistics
documenting the
need
83

Describe the design & dosage of your
intervention (service activity):
– Design
• (who does what with whom?)
• Dosage
– Frequency
• (how many sessions a week?)
– Intensity
• (length of each session)
– Duration
• (how many total weeks of
sessions?)
Healthy Futures Program Example
• Design:
– national service participants
implement the Shape Up curriculum
with economically disadvantaged
urban girls ages 14-16 to increase
physical activity (30 minutes/session)
& educate them on healthy eating
• Frequency: twice a week afterschool
• Intensity: 60 minutes per session
• Duration: 12 weeks

TOC ELEMENTS: OUTCOMES
• An outcome is
– a state or condition
– that does not currently exist
– but must be in place for the project
– to achieve the long-term goal.
• should be stated as a result &
in terms of the desired
change.
• As an example,
– an outcome related to food
availability might be
– “improved agricultural production”.
TOC ELEMENTS: PATHWAYS
• A pathway is
– the sequence in which
– outcomes must occur
– to reach your long-term goal.
• are depicted by
– vertical chains of outcomes
– connected to one another by
arrows,
– proceeding from early outcomes
at the bottom to longer-term
outcomes at the top.

DEVELOPING/REFINING A TOC DIAGRAM
REVIEW THE EXISTING TOC DIAGRAM & LOGFRAME
• Are outcomes sequenced properly?
• Does each lower level outcome lead to the higher
level outcome?
• Do the proposed interventions connect the
outcomes?
• Are there any large leaps in logic or missing
elements?
• Is each outcome necessary & sufficient to cause
the higher level outcome?
• Are all necessary outcomes that others are
responsible included?
• Do you have sufficient time & resources?
REFINING THE TOC NARRATIVE
• The purposes of the narrative are:
– Summarize the major elements of
the ToC
– Describe & provide evidence on
– how the problem analysis,
assumptions, rationales relate to
the long-term goal, outcomes
(especially for non-project
implementers), pathways &
interventions.

5. TESTING YOUR THEORY OF CHANGE:
• IS YOUR THEORY OF CHANGE:
• PLAUSIBLE:
– Does the logic of the model seem correct: “if we do these
things, will we get the results we expect?”
• FEASIBLE:
– Are resources sufficient to implement the chosen
intervention?
• MEANINGFUL:
– Are intended outcomes important? Is the magnitude of
expected change worth the effort?
87

SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS
• A theory of change identifies cause/effect
• The three elements of a theory of change;
• community problem/need,
• intervention,
• intended outcome are supported by data & evidence
• Data documenting community need should show
• scope,
• significance, &
• causes
88

1.3. FRAMEWORKS FOR PROJECT
IDENTIFICATION & DESIGN
• Identify & differentiate between conceptual frameworks, results &
logical frameworks, & logic models
• Define goals & objectives for specific intervention programs
• Design frameworks for specific intervention programs
At the end of the session, you will be able to:

1.FRAMEWORKS PURPOSES & TYPES
• PURPOSES:
– Clarifying assumptions, goals, &
interrelationships between
factors relevant to the project or
program
– Defining objectives
– Selecting activities
– Defining levels of performance &
desired results in terms of
planned activities & realistic,
objective impacts
• TYPES OF FRAMEWORKS
– Conceptual Frameworks
– Results Frameworks
– Logical Frameworks
– Logic Models
• Why is it important to know
about each of these
frameworks?

2. WHY ARE FRAMEWORKS USEFUL?
Designing frameworks assists to develop:
 Clearly understood program/project goals & measurable, long-
term, short-term, & intermediate objectives
 Clearly defined relationships between program/project:
 inputs, processes, outputs, & outcomes, &
 between program/project activities & the external context
(environmental factors)
 Sound implementation & M&E plans

3. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKS (AKA. RESEARCH OR
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKS)
• Diagram that
• identifies & illustrates the relationships between
• all relevant systemic, organizational, individual, or other salient factors
that may
• influence program/project operation &
• the successful achievement of program or project goals
Purpose:
• To show where program fits into wider context
• To clarify assumptions about causal relationships
• To show how program components will operate to influence outcomes
• To guide identification of indicators
• To guide impact analysis (causal pathways)
Similar frameworks: Proximate Determinants

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKS
Individual
characteristics
Technical
inputs
Program supply
Institutional
capacity
Program
sustainability
Health
status
Healthy
practices
Service
utilization

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK: MALARIA BURDEN
Malaria
mortality
Malaria
infection
Malaria
morbidity
Treatment:
Early diagnosis
& treatment
Health care system:
 Accessibility
 Affordability
 Quality of care
 Efficiency
 Demand/utilization
Prevention:
• LLINs, IRS, IPT
• Environmental
management
Malaria knowledge:
• Cause
• Prevention methods
• Early treatment
• Cultural beliefs
• Information
Program factors:
• Health policy
• Antimalarial drug policy
• Support/partnership
• National MCP
External factors:
• Environmental (ecological, climate)
• Socio-economic (economic status,
movement, occupation, housing condition,
war, population displacement, etc)
• Demographic ( age, immunity, gender)

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK: MALARIA CONTROL &
ELIMINATION

CLASS ACTIVITY 5
 Get into country groups for 30 minutes
 Review your Problem Statement
 Develop a conceptual framework for your project
 Identify factors that influence your focal problem
 Arrange factors into a conceptual framework
OUTPUTS FROM ACTIVITY
 Reviewed Problem Statement
 A list of factors influencing focal problem
 A conceptual framework for your project

GOALS & OBJECTIVES
What is the difference between goals & objectives?
 Goal:
 a broad statement of
 a desired, long-term outcome of the program
 Objectives:
 statements of desired, specific, realistic & measurable program results
Goals
1. To reduce malaria incidence & to significantly reduce deaths due to malaria by
the end of 2020
2. Through the attainment of a 75% reduction, malaria control will ultimately
contribute to the reduction of all-cause mortality by 20% in children under five by
2020

SMART OBJECTIVES
SMART
 Specific: identifies concrete events or actions that will take place
 Measurable: quantifies the amount of resources, activity, or change to be
expended & achieved
 Appropriate: logically relates to the overall problem statement & desired
effects of the program
 Realistic: Provides a realistic dimension that can be achieved with the
available resources & plans for implementation
 Time-based: specifies a time within which the objective will be achieved

CLASS ACTIVITY 6
ARE THESE OBJECTIVES SMART?
1. To ensure that at least 80% of people sleep under LLINs in every district
2. At least 80% of pregnant women have access to the package of
interventions to reduce the burden of malaria in pregnancy by December
2008
3. At least 85% of people sleep in sprayed structures in eligible areas of the
36 selected districts by December 2008, an upward revision from the 15
initially planned districts in the 2006-2010 National Malaria Strategic Plan
4. 100% of malaria patients in all districts are receiving prompt & effective
treatment according to the current drug policy within 24 hours of onset of
symptoms by next month
Get into your groups for 30 minutes & begin to develop goals &
objectives for your program
(First review your problem statement & Conceptual Framework)
SMALL GROUP WORK

5. RESULTS FRAMEWORKS
• Diagram that
• identifies steps or levels of results &
• illustrate the causal relationships
• linking all levels of a program’s objectives.
Purposes:
Provides a clarified focus on the causal relationships that
connect incremental achievement of results to the comprehensive program impact
Clarifies project/program mechanics & factors’ relationships that
 suggest ways & means of objectively measuring the achievement of desired ends
Other terms used: Strategic frameworks

RESULTS FRAMEWORKS
Goal: Improved Health
Status
Strategic Objective: Improved Use of Health
Services or Practices
IR1:
Access/Availability
IR1.1:Commodities/
Facilities
IR1.2: Equity
IR2: Quality
IR2.2: Provider
Performance
IR2.3:
Training/Supervision
IR2.4:
Information
System
IR3:
Sustainability
IR3.1: Policy
IR3.2: Health
Care Finance
IR3.3: Private
Sector
IR4: Demand
IR4.1: Attitude
IR4.2:
Knowledge
IR4.3:
Community
Support

SO1: Reduced
Malaria Burden
IR2: Improved malaria
epidemic prevention
& management
IR3: Increased access
to early diagnosis &
prompt treatment of
malaria
IR1.1 Access to &
coverage by ITNs
increased
IR1.2 Improved
access to IPT
IR1.3 IRS coverage
increased in
epidemic prone areas
IR1.4 Use of source
reduction/ larviciding
increased
IR3.4 Access to
services improved
IR1: Improved
malaria prevention
IR2.1 Early detection
& appropriate response
improved
IR2.2 Epidemic
preparedness improved
IR2.3 Surveillance
system improved
IR2.4 Early warning
system strengthened
IR3.1 Quality of
care improved
IR3.2 Efficiency in
service delivery
improved
IR3.3 Utilization of
care improved
RESULTS FRAMEWORK: MALARIA CONTROL PROGRAM

5. RESULTS FRAMEWORKS
• Assist you in
– Identifying/selecting appropriate
interventions to achieve strategic
objectives
– Defining
results/intermediate/operational/ou
tcome objectives
– Revisit the intervention you have
selected, update them & discuss
with your Supervisors
RESULTS-BASED
MANAGEMENT
• Why focus on results?
– Shift of focus from delivery of
goods & services to benefits to
the target beneficiaries
– Focus on effectiveness & impact
of our work
• What does it mean?
– Flexible & optimal approach to
achieve results
– Accountability of the project
team
– Continuous monitoring of the
progress
– Demonstration of measurable
changes

6. LOGIC MODELS
• Diagram that
• identifies & illustrates the linear relationships
• flowing from program inputs, processes, outputs, & outcomes. Inputs or
resources
• affect Processes or activities which produce immediate results or Outputs,
ultimately leading to longer term or broader results, or Outcomes.
Purposes:
Provides a streamlined interpretation of planned use of resources & desired
ends
Clarifies project/program assumptions about linear relationships between key
factors relevant to desired ends
Other terms used:
M&E Frameworks, Logical Frameworks

7. COMPONENTS OF LOGIC MODEL
• The logic model has 5 essential components
Logic Model Component Description
Inputs The resources we invest in an intervention
Processes The activities carried out in order to achieve the intervention’s objectives
Outputs The immediate RESULTS achieved by the intervention at the intervention
level through the execution of activities
Outcomes The set of results at the (target) population level induced by the
interventions. People level effect
Impacts The long term effects or end results of the intervention eg. changes in
health status

LOGIC MODELS: Insecticide-treated bed nets ITN
DISTRIBUTION
INPUT
Human &
financial
resources
ITNs
Behavioral
Communication
Change
materials
OUTPUT
ITNs
distributed
BCC
conducted
OUTCOME
ITN use
IMPACT
Malaria
prevalence
malaria
PROCESS
• Establish
distribution
points for ITNs
• BCC staff
trained

LOGIC MODEL: MALARIA CONTROL PROGRAMS
Inputs Process Outputs Outcomes Impact
•Strategies
•Policies
•Guidelines
•Funding
•Materials
•Facilities
•Commodities
•Supplies
•Staff
•Training
•Services
•Education
•Treatments
•Interventions
•Services
delivered
•Knowledge,
skills, practice
•-ITNs distributed
• HH sprayed
•IPTs delivered
Intermittent
preventive
treatment
•Antimalarials
delivered
•Rapid Diagnostic
tests RDT Ts/slides
delivered & reads
taken
•IITN/IRS
ownership
•ITN use
•Treatment
based on
parasitological
confirmation
•Malaria
Incidence/
Prevalence
•Mortality
•Socio-
economic
wellbeing
•Economic
Impact
Adapted from: RBM. 2008 Global Malaria Action Plan. Available at:
http://www.rollbackmalaria.org/gmap/gmap.pdf

8. LOGICAL FRAMEWORKS
• A table which
• presents a standardized summary of the project & its logic.
Purposes:
 Summarizes what the project intends to do & how
 Summarizes key assumptions
 Summarizes outputs & outcomes that will be monitored & evaluated
Other terms used: Logframe matrix

WHAT CAN EASILY GO WRONG?
PLAN
(LogFrame)
IMPROVED
SITUATION

My ‘brilliant’ idea

‘Traditional planning process’
(proposal writing)
Without consultations:
Quick, easy (& dirty) project formulation
WHY?

(We think)
WE KNOW
WHAT IS RIGHT
!!!!

WHO’s IMPROVED SITUATION ?
Hidden agendas?

Even unconsciously
!!!!
But development cooperation is different

PROBLEMS !
Why do people not like to speak about problems?
- Painful?
- Emotional?
- Do we actually know?
- Or even understand?

“POOR”
PRESENT
SITUATION
PLAN
(LogFrame)
IMPROVED
SITUATION
ANALYSIS
problems!
functional relationships
SUPPLIERS  RECIPIENTS

STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS !
For WHO (End-users / beneficiaries)
&
by WHO (contributing agencies)?

HOW TO KEEP THEM ON BOARD?
• Make them (emotionally) understand their
relevance & importance through self-discovery in
a workshop with equals.
• Make their positions publicly know
(in & after a workshop)
• Remind them on Results
(Results Oriented Monitoring – ROM & Results-
Based Accountability - RBA)

WHY INVOLVED? FEEL THE PAIN!
Poor life
condition in
Area X
High
unemployment
in area X
Unemployed
people unable to
enter the labour
market
Unexperienced
workers too
expensive for
companies
Skills of
unemployed
workers outdated
Parents with
young children
are tied to home
High labour
costs
Demand of local
goods
decreased

WHAT SHOULD BE ACHIEVED?
Increased
development
in area X
Increased
employment
in area X
People prepared
to enter labour
market
New workers
hired by
businesses
People skills
meet the request
of labour market
Support with
childcare
provided
Labour costs
affordable for
businesses
Demand of
goods
increased
OUT
IN

WHY ‘CONSULTATIONS’?
In order to get insight on the RISKS,
we need to invite ‘other stakeholders’ to hear
their perception on the problems & possible
solutions …

CONSULTATIONS?
Misunderstandings due to:
- cultural differences?
- different expectations?
- national differences?
- communication?
- different norms & values?
- belief systems?

The manager as facilitator ?
Create a safe environment for others to
complain, share, contribute
by asking questions instead of
‘giving orders’

Ex-Ante Assessment !
Relevance …
Feasibility…
Sustainability …

but, Learning is not enough …
Change is required !

LOGICAL FRAMEWORKS
Project Description Performance Indicators Means of Verification Assumptions
Goal: The broader development
impact to which the project
contributes - at a national &
sectoral level.
Measures of the extent to which a
sustainable contribution to the goal has
been made. Used during evaluation.
Sources of information &
methods used to collect &
report it.
Purpose: The development
outcome expected at the end of
the project. All components will
contribute to this
Conditions at the end of the project
indicating that the Purpose has been
achieved & that benefits are sustainable.
Used for project completion & evaluation.
report it.
Assumptions
concerning the
purpose/goal linkage.
Component Objectives: The
expected outcome of producing
each component's outputs.
Measures of the extent to which
component objectives have been
achieved & lead to sustainable benefits.
Used during review & evaluation.
report it.
Assumptions
concerning the
component
objective/purpose
linkage.
Outputs: The direct measurable
results (goods & services) of the
project which are largely under
project management's control
Measures of the quantity & quality of
outputs & the timing of their delivery.
Used during monitoring & review.
report it.
Assumptions
concerning the
output/component
objective linkage.
Activities: The tasks carried out
to implement the project &
deliver the identified outputs.
Implementation/work program targets.
Used during monitoring.
report it.
Assumptions
concerning the
activity/output
linkage.

LOGICAL FRAMEWORKS: MALARIA CONTROL PROGRAM
Project Description Performance indicators MoV Assumptions
Goal: To reduce malaria morbidity &
mortality by 50% by 2015
• Malaria prevalence
• All-cause under –five mortality rate
• Annual reports
• Surveys
• DSS (INDEPTH)
• DHS
• Political stability
• Environmental stability (no
natural disasters)
Overall Objective: To achieve universal
coverage of malaria control
interventions
% of individuals with access to an LLIN
in their HH
• Annual reports
• Surveys
• Record reviews
•Availability of effective &
affordable drugs
Component Objective:
•To achieve universal coverage &
increase use of LLINs
% of individuals with access to an LLIN
in their HH
% of individuals who slept under an
LLIN the previous night
•Population-based
survey
•Health facility
surveys
• Community
surveys
• Strong political support
•Availability of LLINs
Outputs:
LLINs Distributed to target population
LLIN hang up demonstrated to
individuals in target population
Number of LLINs distributed to target
population
Number of individuals who observed
LLIN hang up demonstration
Activity
reports/program
records
Funds available for distribution &
communication campaign
Community support
Activities:
LLIN Distribution Campaigns
LLIN hang up demonstrations
Number of LLIN distribution
campaigns
Number of LLIN hang up
demonstrations
Activity
reports/program
records
•Funds available for distribution
& communication campaign

GROUP DISCUSSION 7
1. Have u ever used any of these
frameworks for designing & planning
projects? How?
2. What are other ways that these
frameworks can be used for planning?

SUMMARY OF FRAMEWORKS
Type of
Framework
Brief Description Program Management Basis for Monitoring &
Evaluation
Conceptual Interaction of various
factors
Determine which factors
the program will
influence
No. Can help to explain
results
Results Logically linked
program objectives
Shows the causal
relationship between
program objectives
Yes – at the objective level
Logical Logically linked
program objectives,
outputs, & activities
Shows the causal
activities & objectives
Yes – at the output &
objective level
Logic model Logically links inputs,
processes, outputs, &
outcomes,
Shows the causal
inputs & the objectives
Yes – at all stages of the
program from inputs to
process to outputs to
outcomes/ objectives

PI class 1.pptx

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to PI class 1.pptx

Similar to PI class 1.pptx (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

PI class 1.pptx