This document discusses how forests in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island are being impacted by climate change and provides recommendations for adapting forest management. Key points: - Temperatures have risen 3°F since 1900 and are projected to increase another 3.5-8.5°F by 2100, leading to longer growing seasons but also increased moisture stress. Precipitation has increased, especially from extreme events. - Species compositions are shifting as northern species decline and southern species expand their ranges. Many common tree species will have reduced suitable habitat. - Forest managers can take actions to enhance resilience like increasing diversity, retaining habitat structures, establishing reserves, and facilitating transitions to new species. Adaptation approaches include resistance,

1. Forestry in a Changing Climate
Focus: Connecticut, Massachusetts, & Rhode Island
Maria Janowiak mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us
Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
USDA Forest Service
Climate Change Response Framework
www.forestadaptation.org

2. Climate Change Information
Image: www.ucciaconf.org

3. Climate Change Information

4. "Conservation is the foresighted
utilization, preservation and/or
renewal of forests, waters, lands
and minerals for the greatest
good of the greatest number for
the longest time."
Gifford Pinchot, Breaking New Ground

5. Many of the region’s forests are 80+ years old.
Longest time… How long?
Foster et al. 2017 (Wildlands & Woodlands), Butler et al. 2015

6. Over the past 80-120 years
Temperature
• 3°F warmer since 1900
• More hot days and nights
• Shorter, warmer winters
Runkle & Kunkle 2017 (NOAA State Summary - CT); NOAA Climate at a Glance; USGCRP 2017 (NCA)
Sea Levels
• 10-11 inches per century
Precipitation Events
• +2.5-7.5 inches annually
• 74% increase in extreme
events (“5-year” event)

7. Over the next 80 years
Temperature
• 3.5-8.5°F more warming
• 20+ days growing season
• 1-2 months less snow cover
Runkle & Kunkle 2017 (NOAA State Summary - CT); NOAA Climate at a Glance; USGCRP 2017 (NCA)
Sea Levels
• Rise another 7-23 inches
Precipitation Events
• More annual precipitation
(but seasonally variable)
• Continued extreme events

8. Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate-Driven Changes

9. Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate
Change
Trajectory
?
Climate-Driven Changes

10. What actions can be taken to
enhance the ability of a system to
cope with change
and
meet your goals and objectives?

11. Climate Change Effects on Forests
NEW REPORT!
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/55635
Additional resources:
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
 Synthesize state/regional assessments and
scientific literature
 Incorporate new results from forest impact models:
Climate Change Tree Atlas, LINKAGES, LANDIS
 Draw on local expertise of scientists and land
managers

12. Climate Change Effects on Forests
Forest Change
Shifting
SEASONS
Shifting
STRESSORS
Shifting
SPECIES

13. Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons
 Evidence of phenological shifts
 Projected to increase 3-7+ more weeks
Longer period for plant growth
Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014
Longer Growing Season
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE GOOD

14. SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD

15. Shorter Winter (Less Snow)
Projected decreases in snow
fall, cover, and depth
 30-70% decreases in snowfall
 Greatest loss in December/January
Notaro et al. 2014, Figure: Frumhoff et al. 2007
Area with some snow on ground
for 30 days per year
Red = historic
White = high emissions
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD

16. Projected decreases in snow
fall, cover, and depth
 30-70% decreases in snowfall
 Greatest loss in December/January
Decreased snowpack
 Increased soil freeze-thaw cycles
can damage roots and alter soil
processes
Shorter Winter (Less Snow)
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD

17. More rain
 Warmer temperatures
 Increased precipitation
 Extreme rain events
Earlier peak stream flows
 Flashiness and episodic
high flows may increase
Dale et al 2001, Huntingon 2004, Parmesan 2006
Shorter Winter (Less Snow, More Rain)
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD

18. More rain
 Warmer temperatures
 Increased precipitation
 Extreme rain events
Earlier peak stream flows
 Flashiness and episodic
high flows may increase
Dale et al 2001, Huntingon 2004, Parmesan 2006
Shorter Winter (Less Snow, More Rain)
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD

19. Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier
conditions during the growing season.
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Increased Risk of Moisture Stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD

20. Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier
conditions during the growing season.
Increased Risk of Moisture Stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Precipitation
Runoff
Earlier spring
runoff and
increased runoff
during extreme
rain events
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD

21. Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier
conditions during the growing season.
Increased Risk of Moisture Stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer
temperatures drive
water loss from
soils and plants
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD

22. SHIFTING SEASONS: THE UGLY

23. Sea-level Rise
 Continued increases of multiple feet
 Enhanced storm surge
Projected of areas
affected by sea level
rise along Rhode Island
sea coast
Figure: STORMTOOLS, www.beachsamp.org/resources/understand-risk/
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE UGLY

24.  Heavy precipitation
 Ice storms
 Heat waves/droughts
 Wind storms
 Hurricanes
 “Events” are not well
modeled
VTRANS/VT ANR
NY DEC
Dan Turner,
Cambridge
Fire Dept.
Extreme Events
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE UGLY

25. Changes in Forest Composition
Climate Change Tree
Atlas: suitable habitat
LINKAGES: species
establishment
LANDIS: productivity
and composition
PCM B1 GFDL A1FI
SHIFTING SPECIES

26. Changes in Forest Composition
Many northern/boreal species are
projected to decline in the region–
contract to more northerly and
higher-elevation locations
Many species common farther south
are expected to see increased and
new habitat within the region.
SHIFTING SPECIES

27. Likely to decline
 Balsam fir
 Eastern white pine
 Paper birch
 Quaking aspen
 Red spruce
 American beech
 Eastern hemlock
 Yellow & gray birch
Mixed model results
 Sugar & red maple
 Black birch
 Chestnut oak
 Northern red oak
Potential “winners”
 American elm
 American basswood
 Black oak
 Eastern hophornbeam
 Eastern red cedar
 Mockernut hickory
 Pitch pine
 Shagbark hickory
 Yellow-poplar
 White oak
New habitat (esp. south)
 Chinkapin oak
 Common persimmon
 Eastern redbud
 Hackberry
 Loblolly pine
 Osage-orange
 Shortleaf pine
 Southern red oak
 Sweetgum
 Virginia pine
www.forestadaptation/org/ne-species
Changes in Forest Composition
SHIFTING SPECIES

28. = species X
suitable habitat
50% Reduction in Habitat:
Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain
Changes in Forest Composition
SHIFTING SPECIES

29.  Many common tree species are
projected to have reduced
suitability in the future
 Changes will occur slowly—not
instant dieback
 Mature and established trees
should fare better
 Immense lags to occupy habitats
 Critical factors: competition,
management, & disturbance
Changes in Forest Composition
Risk may be greatest:
• Location is relatively
near the southern
extent of species range
• Trees are projected to
decline and located on
a marginal site
• Forest is composed of
few species, esp. those
projected to decline
• Something is “missing”
from the ecosystem
• Other factors cause
additional stress
SHIFTING SPECIES

30. More Wildfire?
Wildfire may increase:
 Warmer/drier summers
 Increased stress or mortality
from less suitable conditions
 Shift toward fire-associated
species like oaks and pines
Wildfire may not change:
 Spring/early summer moisture
 Current regeneration of more
mesic species
 Spatial patterns of land use and
fragmentation
 Fire suppression
Clark et al. 2014, Guyette et al. 2014
Future climate conditions suggest increased risk of fire.
SHIFTING STRESSORS

31. Extreme Events
Extreme events may become more frequent or severe
 Heavy precipitation
 Ice storms
 Heat waves/droughts
 Wind storms
 Hurricanes
 “Events” are not well
modeled
Photo: Joe Klementovich, HBRF
SHIFTING STRESSORS

32. Insects and Disease
Indirect: Stress from other
impacts increases susceptibility
Direct:
 Pests migrating northward
 Decreased probability of cold
lethal temperatures
 Accelerated lifecycles
Ayres and Lombardero 2000,
Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009,
Weed et al. 2013, Sturrock et al. 2011
Increased damage from forest insects & diseases
Hemlock woolly adelgid incidence ~2015
SHIFTING STRESSORS

33. Invasive Plants
Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts
can affect the potential for invasion or success
Direct:
 Expanded ranges under warmer conditions
 Increased competitiveness from ability of some
plants to take advantage of elevated CO2
Dukes et al. 2009, Hellman et al. 2008;
Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New
England (www.eddmaps.org)
Increased habitat for many noxious plants
SHIFTING STRESSORS

34. “Threat Multiplier”
Image: Bartlett Tree Experts
Drought
Injury
Interactions make all the difference.
 Chronic stress
 Disturbances
 Insect pests
 Forest diseases
 Invasive species
Pests and
Disease
SHIFTING STRESSORS

35. Your Expertise
What’s at risk in
YOUR forest?
RegionalTrends
LocalConditions

36. How Managers are Responding
 Adaptation Demonstrations provide real-world
examples of forest management activities that:
• Enhance the ability of forests to cope with changing
conditions
• Achieve land owner management goals
 Foster cross-ownership dialogue and learning
 Illustrate diverse goals and approaches

37. www.forestadaptation.org/demos
250+ Projects
have used the
Adaptation Workbook
Adaptation Demonstrations
Real-world examples of climate-informed
forest management

38. Swanston et al. 2016;
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 adaptationworkbook.org
Forest Adaptation Resources

39. Adaptation Workbook
Provides a structured process to integrate climate change
considerations into management planning and activities
1. DEFINE area of
interest, management
objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the
area of interest.
3. EVALUATE
management objectives
given projected impacts
and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and
implement adaptation
approaches and tactics.
5. MONITOR and
evaluate effectiveness
of implemented
actions.
Vulnerability
assessments,
scientific literature,
and other resources
Adaptation
Strategies and
Approaches

40. 1. Define location,
project and time
frames.

41. Norcross Wildlife Sanctuary
 Privately-managed refuge with >8,000 acres in MA
and CT
 Heart of Emerald Forest within MassConn region
 Forest management on portions of Sanctuary
 Upland & aquatic habitats
1. Define location,
project and time
frames.

42.  Review resources to understand regional impacts from climate change
 Consider your local site conditions to understand unique vulnerabilities
and risks.
Illustration by Jerry Jenkins, from Rustad et al. 2012
New
report!
2. Assess site-specific
climate change impacts
and vulnerabilities.

43.  Extreme precipitation events
leading to altered stream
flow and hydrologic change
 Common northern species
are likely to experience
greater stress, such as maple,
birch, and beech
 Oak-hickory forest species
may have increased habitat
2. Assess site-specific
climate change impacts
and vulnerabilities.

44. 3. Evaluate management
objectives given projected
impacts and vulnerabilities.

45.  Extreme weather events could create
challenges to forest management
operations (-), but could also enhance
structural diversity (+)
 Many insect pests and invasive plants may
become more problematic in the future,
especially if forests are stressed from
changes in the climate (-)
 Loss of hemlock and other important
species reduce cover and food available for
many important wildlife species (-)
 Extreme rain events could damage culverts
and forest roads, negatively impacting
water quality (-)
3. Evaluate management
objectives given projected
impacts and vulnerabilities.

46. 4. Identify and
implement
adaptation
approaches
and tactics.

47. Wildlife
habitat
conservation
Climate-
informed
Forest
stewardship
4. Identify and
implement
adaptation
approaches
and tactics.

48. Increase diversity of tree species and sizes (tree thinning)
 Favor species valuable for wildlife and promote diversity
 Improve growth and health of remaining trees
Retain: Den trees, dead trees, and downed wood for habitat
Protect: Establish riparian wetland reserves
4. Identify and
implement
adaptation
approaches
and tactics.

49. 4. Identify and
implement
adaptation
approaches
and tactics.

50. Wildlife habitat
conservation
Climate-
informedForest
stewardship
4. Identify and
implement
adaptation
approaches
and tactics.

51. 5. MONITOR and
evaluate effectiveness
of implemented
actions.

52. Adaptation Workbook
Provides a structured process to integrate climate change
considerations into management planning and activities
1. DEFINE area of
interest, management
objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the
area of interest.
3. EVALUATE
management objectives
given projected impacts
and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and
implement adaptation
approaches and tactics.
5. MONITOR and
evaluate effectiveness
of implemented
actions.
Vulnerability
assessments,
scientific literature,
and other resources
Adaptation
Strategies and
Approaches

53. 3. Evaluate management
objectives given projected
impacts and vulnerabilities.

54. 4. Identify and implement
adaptation approaches
and tactics.

55. 4. Identify and implement
adaptation approaches
and tactics.
Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate
Change
Trajectory
?

56. RESISTANCE
 Improve defenses of
forest against change
and disturbance
 Maintain relatively
unchanged conditions
Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017
Adaptation Options
4. Identify and implement
adaptation approaches
and tactics.

57. RESISTANCE RESILIENCE
 Improve defenses of
forest against change
and disturbance
 Maintain relatively
unchanged conditions
 Accommodate some
degree of change
 Return to prior reference
condition following
disturbance
Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017
Adaptation Options
4. Identify and implement
adaptation approaches
and tactics.

58. RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION
 Improve defenses of
forest against change
and disturbance
 Maintain relatively
unchanged conditions
 Accommodate some
degree of change
 Return to prior reference
condition following
disturbance
 Intentionally facilitate
change
 Enable ecosystem to
respond to changing
and new conditions
Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017
Adaptation Options
4. Identify and implement
adaptation approaches
and tactics.

59. RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION
 Improve defenses of
forest against change
and disturbance
 Maintain relatively
unchanged conditions
 Accommodate some
degree of change
 Return to prior reference
condition following
disturbance
 Intentionally facilitate
change
 Enable ecosystem to
respond to changing
and new conditions
Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017
Adaptation Options
4. Identify and implement
adaptation approaches
and tactics.

60. Activity
Purpose: consider how different forest management activities could
be used given different landowner perspectives about future change

61. Activity
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches provide “stepping stones”
from big ideas to specific management actions
Management Goals
& Objectives
Climate Change Impacts
Intent of Adaptation (Option)
Make Idea Specific
(Strategy, Approach)
Action to Implement
(Tactic)
Challenges & Opportunities
Adaptation
Strategies and
Approaches

62. Activity
Series of 3 management scenarios (~15 minutes each)
Goal: Brainstorm/consider actions to cope with climate change
while meeting landowner goals, objectives, and direction

63. Activity
Adaptation Actions
Benefits
Drawbacks &
Barriers
Effective &
Feasible?Approach Tactic & Time Frame
Use the menu to
identify one or
multiple adaptation
approaches
Specific management
action, including
when it would be
implemented
Pros of the
action
Cons of the
action
Is the action
reasonable?
(yes/no)
Series of 3 management scenarios (~15 minutes each)
Goal: Brainstorm/consider actions to cope with climate change
while meeting landowner goals, objectives, and direction
Work in small groups

64. Activity
Series of 3 management scenarios (~15 minutes each)
Goal: Brainstorm/consider actions to cope with climate change
while meeting landowner goals, objectives, and direction
Work in small groups
Adaptation Actions
Benefits
Drawbacks &
Barriers
Effective &
Feasible?Approach Tactic & Time Frame
Use the menu to
identify one or
multiple adaptation
approaches
Specific management
action, including
when it would be
implemented
Pros of the
action
Cons of the
action
Is the action
reasonable?
(yes/no)
4.1: Favor or restore
native species that
are expected to be
adapted to future
conditions
Thin stand within 3
years, focusing on
reducing species X.
Favor species Y when
present.
• Reduces risk
of species X
decline
• Improves
structure for
birds
• Species Y
isn’t as
marketable
Yes

65. Scenario 1 = Resistance (Worksheet1)
The landowner wants to maintain the forest in its current
condition and wants to defend against changes from stressors
as much as possible.
They would like to maintain the forest composition similar to
its current state, without substantial changes.
• What actions could be used to hold the
forest in its current condition?
• How much effort would this take, and
what are the potential benefits or
barriers?

66. Scenario 2 = Resilience (Worksheet2)
The landowner recognizes that forests experience disturbance, but
wants to keep the forest recognizable as a native hardwood forest.
They would like to maintain an ash component to the extent it’s
possible, but they also want to promote a healthy, functioning
forest ecosystem.
• What actions could be used to enhance
the ability of the forest to cope with
change?
• How much effort would this take, and
what are the potential benefits or
barriers?

67. Scenario 3 = Transition (Worksheet3)
The landowner anticipates tremendous change in the future
due to emerald ash borer and other stressors, and they want
to manage for a “forest of the future.”
They don’t care what the forest looks like, as long as it is a
healthy, functioning forest ecosystem.
• What could the future forest look like,
and what actions could be used to
achieve these conditions?
• How much effort would this take, and
what are the potential benefits or
barriers?

68. RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION
 Improve defenses of
forest against change
and disturbance
 Maintain relatively
unchanged conditions
 Accommodate some
degree of change
 Return to prior reference
condition following
disturbance
 Intentionally facilitate
change
 Enable ecosystem to
respond to changing
and new conditions
Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017
Activity – discussion

69. Communication Strategies
First, a couple questions…
How many consulting foresters – who work with private woodland owners?
Have any of you had landowners ask your
professional advice about climate change?
How many land managers (public or private?)
Have any of you already begun to address
climate change in your work?

70. Why Engage Landowners?
We’re working in larger regions
and wider partnerships with bigger goals in mind:
Increasing the pace - and scale - of conservation
Improving forest health
Even with all of our historic efforts,
private landowners remain largely
unaware of resources available to help
them make key decisions

71. MassConn Sustainable
Forest Partnership
• 38 towns MA, CT
• 760,000 acres
• 76% forested
• 23% protected

72. Targeting
Outreach
• Heat map:
Ecological
Priorities – Red
= top 20%
• Using GIS data
to create
mailing list for
forester visit
offers from high
ranking parcel
ownerships

73. New Tools for Parcel
Assessment Visits
• Project includes Social Marketing to help
owners adopt practices to keep their
woods healthy & resilient

74. 2016 – Free Forester Visit Offers
• Direct mail to 613 MA, 424 CT owners
of 30+ acres across all 38 towns in
regional partnership

75. • NEFF dispatches the trained foresters to schedule
the visits
• Follow-up packets and email or phone calls –
referral to right resource

76. Engaging private landowners
through “demo” site walks
Harvest & Habitat Walks
Folded Hills Forest
40-acre management site
August 2016
Whaleback Ridge Forest
20-acre harvest site
May 2016

77. Know your audience.
What do they really believe?

78. Find common ground.
What resonates?
Early bud
break
Wash-
outs
Extreme
weather
Moisture
stress

79. Forester Recommended:
Continue to remove
invasives, replace with
natives (protect soil, H2O)
Thin, release crop/mast
trees (prepare for
weather; promote strong
trees)
Release white pine
regeneration (promote
diversity of tree species)
Considerations forYour Woodlot
29 acres - Woodstock, CT

80. Former Grant Results – 41 parcel visits
So far: 1,500 acres under
climate-informed management
Goal: 500 acres
MassConn Hand-Raisers 2014-17
(mailing address)
To date:
• 6 NIACS-trained consulting foresters
• Engaging owners of ~3,000 acres
• Individualized support for 18 owners
to apply for cost-share, incorporate climate
in plans or practices

81. Southern
New England
Heritage
Forest
$12.2 million
RCPP Funding
• Phase 1 - Federal
conservation easement fund
(Healthy Forest Reserve
Program – management in
perpetuity for bird habitat)
• Applications due July 20
o MassConn - MA
o Last Green Valley – CT
o N. RI Cons. Dist - RI

82. • Phase 2: $1.5 million for EQUIP
• Fall 2018 application
• Bird habitat assessments with
each state Audubon; forest
management plans & practices
on about 6,000 acres
• To learn more: Visit The Last
Green Valley web site
http://thelastgreenvalley.org/learn-
protect/agriculture-
forestry/southern-new-england-
heritage-forest/
RCPP Funding

83. We can reach and engage the critical ownership
audience of private woodland owners –
even on a complex issue like climate!

84. Talking to Landowners and Others
1. Climate change is just one of many issues
2. Meet the landowner where they are
3. Focus on multiple benefits

85. Desired
ConditionsAesthetics
Birds and
wildlife
Previous
landowners’
actions
Invasives Should I
harvest?
Storms
Trails/access
Forest
health
And more!!
Climate
Change
Paying the taxes

86. Talking about Climate Change is Tricky
2) Uncertainty makes it difficult to talk about future conditions
and suggest interventions

87. Talking about Climate Change is Tricky
1) Seen as politically contentious even though scientifically
accepted

88. Talking about Climate Change is Tricky
2) Uncertainty makes it difficult to talk about future conditions
and suggest interventions
Uncertainty in everyday life:
Image: financialsamurai.com

89. Uncertainty & Future Projections

90. Uncertainty & Future Projections
Not this: More like this:

91. Talking about Climate Change is Tricky
1) Seen as politically contentious even though scientifically
accepted
2) Uncertainty makes it difficult to talk about future conditions
and suggest interventions
3) Need to avoid mental shutdown to have meaningful
discussion

93. When it’s
a direct
issue
When Do you Say “Climate Change” ?
Don’t beat around the bush.
 Somebody else has brought it up as
an issue.
 Climate change raises a concern
that is pertinent to management.
 You want to show that you’ve
considered climate change.

94. Your
choice if…
When Do you Say “Climate Change” ?
 Climate change is an indirect factor
with long-term effects
 Client isn’t interested and there’s
nothing to disclose
 Non-professional or non-technical
audiences
How important is it?

96. How to Say It
Extreme events resonate.
“We’re seeing more damage from extreme
rain events, so this would be a good time to
invest in a larger culvert”

97. How to Say It
Be specific.
 Climate change is too vague.
“It would be good to increase species diversity
in this stand sooner rather than later so you
have more options in the future. This means we
may need to consider larger gaps.”

98. How to Say It
List several reasons
 List climate change as one of many reasons.
“This harvest method will increase the amount
of structure in the forest, which will improve
habitat for many bird species, as well as
establish new seedlings for the future forest.

99. In Plans
Climate change section
(template text available)
 Climate change & carbon
required elements in
Forest Stewardship Plans
 Introduce idea
 Identify climate impacts
of greatest concern
Some examples:
www.forestadaptation.org/hill-robert
www.forestadaptation.org/buffambrook
www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake
www.forestadaptation.org/suchovsky

100. In Plans
Stand-level descriptions
or prescriptions
 Identify specific
concerns or issues
 Make connections to
proposed management
Some examples:
www.forestadaptation.org/northwoods-center
www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake

101. In Plans
Appendices
 Additional details
 Adaptation Workbook worksheets
Some examples:
www.forestadaptation.org/hill-robert
www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake