2. Subnitted To:
Ms.Zoya Abdullah
Submitted By:
Haris Rafiq 034
Nabeel Sarwuar 044
M.Usama 040
M.Mudassar 078
M.Bilal 096
3. Table of contents
Probability
Combination
Permutation
Decision between combination and permutation
Decision making theory
(i)Uncertainty
(ii)Optimist
(iii)Pessmist
(iv)Manager
4. (v)Decision making under pure uncertainty
(vi)Decision making under risk
(vii)Determinstic approach
5. Probability
Probability is the liklihood that an event will occure
and is caculated by dividing the number of favourable
outcomes by the total numbers of possible outcomes
Example:
There is 50% chance that the outcomes will be heads
and 50% chance the outcome will be tails.
6. Combination
A collection of things ,in which order does not matter.
Example:
For fruit salad,how many different combination of two
ingredients canyou make with apple,banana and
cheery?
{apple,banana},{apple,cherry},{banana,cherry}
7. Permutation
All possible arrangements of a collection of
things,where the order is importanat.
Example:
You want to visit the home of your friends A,B,C by
order wise not in a randomly.
8. Difference between permutation
and combination
n
Permutation are in list Combination are in groups
They are in order They are not in order
Its formula is
nPr=
Its formula is
nCr=
The term permutation refers to
several ways of arranging a set of
subjects in a sequential order
It implies several ways of choosing
items from pool of objects,such that
there order is irrelevant.
)!(
!
rn
n
)!()!(
!
rnr
n
9. Decision making theory
Decision theory can be broken into two branches:
(1)Normative decision making theory
(2) Descriptive decision making theory
10. (1)Normative decision making theory
It gives advice on how to make the decision,given a set
of values and beliefs.
(2) Descriptive decision making theory
Its analyzes how existing possibility irrational agents
actually make decision
11. Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a situation which involves imperfect or
unknown information. It applies to predictions of
future events, to physical measurements .
12. Optimist
Someone who always believes that good things will
happen:
Someone who feels that good things are more likely to
happen than bad.
Permist
A person who thinks that bad things are more likely to
happen or who emphasizes the bad part of a situation.
13. Manager
The person who is responsible for managing an
organization.
The person whose job is to organize and sometimes
train a sports team .
14. Decision making under pure
uncertainty
• Decision Making Under Uncertainty In decision
making under pure uncertainty, the decision-maker
has no knowledge regarding any of the states of nature
.
15. Decision making under risk
uncertainty
Risk
Must make a decision for which the outcome is not
known with certainty
Can list all possible outcomes & assign probabilities
to the outcomes
Uncertainty
Cannot list all possible outcomes
Cannot assign probabilities to the outcomes
16. Determinstic approach
Deterministic approaches are used to assess disaster
impacts of a given hazard scenario, whereas
probabilistic methods are used to obtain more refined
estimates of hazard frequencies and damages.
