Boko Haram - Amy Pate

1.
Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities in Northeast Nigeria © START, June 2015 1
TRAINING ACTIVITY
Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities in Northeast Nigeria
EXERCISE OVERVIEW AND LEARNING OBJECTIVES
This exercise is designed to familiarize the participants to one method for assessing the risks of mass atrocities in a context of terrorism. Specifically, the exercise will be
carried out to assess risks in northeast Nigeria (the states of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa), where the terrorist group Jamā'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihād, more
commonly known as Boko Haram, has carried out a running campaign of terrorism and insurgency. Learning objectives for this training activity include the following:
 Participants will become familiarized with the United Nation’s “Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes: A Tool for Prevention”;
 Participants will enhance their knowledge of the current state of conflict in Nigeria’s northeast;
 Participants will become more aware of the players engaged in insurgency/terrorism and counter-insurgency/counter-terrorism in Nigeria’s northeast;
 Participants will be able to apply generalized framework indicators to a specific conflict and assess specific actors/populations at risk for becoming perpetrators
of mass atrocities.
RISK FACTORS AND INDICATORS
For each risk factor, mark the cell for the actor or actors to which it applies. Risk factors may impact only one actor or all of them. Indicators are illustrative examples of
given risk factors, but they may not be comprehensive. Therefore, another “other” category is provided. Base your judgment primarily on the material presented; if using
outside knowledge or information, note that use. Be prepared to explain your group’s reasoning for marking the actors. Each group will be assigned two of the risk factors
to assess. Groups will be given 20 minutes to complete their assessment.
Risk Factor1 Indicator Boko
Haram
Nigerian
Military
Nigerian
Police
Civilian Joint
Task Force
Other
Militaries
Situations of armed
conflict and other forms
of instability
Current armed conflict
Security crisis (including threats of external intervention, terrorism)
Humanitarian crisis
Abrupt or irregular regime change
Growing nationalist, armed, or radical opposition
Political repression
Economic scarcity of resources or disputes over their use
Economic contraction at national level
Acute poverty, mass unemployment, or horizontal inequalities
Mass protests
Exclusion/tensions based on identity
Other indicator
1
Risk factors and indicators are taken from United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect, “Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes: A Tool
for Prevention,” (New York: United Nations, 2014), http://www.un.org/en/preventgenocide/adviser/pdf/framework%20of%20analysis%20for%20atrocity%20crimes_en.pdf.

2.
Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities in Northeast Nigeria © START, June 2015 2
Risk Factor1 Indicator Boko
Haram
Nigerian
Military
Nigerian
Police
Civilian Joint
Task Force
Other
Militaries
Serious violations of
human rights and
humanitarian law
Past or present restrictions to/violations of human rights and humanitarian law
Past acts of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, or incitement
Policy or practice of impunity for serious violations of human rights and
humanitarian law or atrocity crimes
Inaction, reluctance or refusal to stop planned, predictable, or ongoing violations
Continued support to groups accused of involvement in violations
Justification or denial of violations
Politicization or absence of reconciliation or transitional justice processes
Widespread mistrust in state institutions
Other indicator
Weakness of state
structures
Insufficient legal frameworks for protection of human rights
Insufficient resources, training for national institutions, particularly judicial, law
enforcement and human rights
Lack of independent and impartial judiciary
Lack of effective civilian control of security forces
High levels of corruption or poor governance
Absence or inadequate mechanism for oversight and accountability
Lack of awareness/training on human rights and humanitarian law to military
forces, irregular forces, or other relevant actors
Lack of capacity to ensure compliance with international humanitarian standards
in conduct of war
Lack of resources for reform or institution-building
Insufficient resources to implement overall measures to protect populations
Other indicator
Motives/incentives to
use violence
Political motives aimed at attainment/consolidation of power
Economic interests, including of elites or identity groups, to control distribution of
resources
Strategic or military interests
Other interests, including homogenization of a territory
Real or perceived threats posed by protected groups, populations, or individuals,
against interests or objectives of perpetrators
Real or perceived membership of or support for armed opposition groups, by
protected groups, populations or individuals
Supremacist or extremist ideologies
Politicization of past grievances, tensions or impunity
Inadequately addressed social trauma caused by past violent producing feelings
of loss, displacement, or injustice
Other indicator

3.
Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities in Northeast Nigeria © START, June 2015 3
Risk Factor1 Indicator Boko
Haram
Nigerian
Military
Nigerian
Police
Civilian Joint
Task Force
Other
Militaries
Capacity to commit
atrocity crimes
Availability of personnel and arms or financial resource for their procurement
Capacity to transport/deploy personnel and to distribute arms/ammunition
Capacity to encourage or recruit large numbers of supporters and the means to
mobilize them
Strong culture of obedience to authority and group conformity
Links with other armed forces or non-state armed groups
Presence of commercial actors that serve as enablers
Financial, political or other support of influential or wealthy national actors
Armed, financial, logistic, training or other support from external actors
Other indicator
Absence of mitigating
factors
Limited or lack of empowerment mechanisms for groups, populations, or
individuals to protect themselves
Lack of strong, organized and representative civil society and free, diverse media
Lack of interest by international civil society or of access to international media
Limited presence of UN, INGOs, or other regional/international actors in country
Lack of exposure or presence of political or economic relations with other states
Limited state cooperation with international/regional human rights mechanisms
Lack of incentives or willingness of parties to engage in dialogue, make
concessions, or receive support from international community
Limited interest or failure of other states, international, or regional organizations
to support state to exercise its responsibility to protect populations
Lack of support by neighboring states to protect at-risk populations
Lack of early warning mechanism
Other indicator
Enabling circumstances
or preparatory actions
Imposition of emergency laws or extraordinary security measures
Suspension or interference with vial state institutions
Strengthening of the security apparatus, its reorganization or mobilization against
protected groups
Acquisition of large quantities of arms/ammunition
Creation or increased support to militia or paramilitary groups
Imposition of strict control on the use of communication channels
Expulsion of or refusal to allow NGOs, international organizations or media
Increased violations of the right to life, physical integrity, liberty or security of
populations
Increases in serious acts of violence against women and children,
Imposition of life-threatening living conditions or the deportation, seizure,
collection, segregation, evacuation, or forced displacement of populations
Destruction or plundering of essential goods
Marking people or property based on group affiliation
Increased politicization of identity, past events or motives to engage in violence
Increased inflammatory rhetoric, propaganda campaigns or hate speech
Other indicator

4.
Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities in Northeast Nigeria © START, June 2015 4
Risk Factor1 Indicator Boko
Haram
Nigerian
Military
Nigerian
Police
Civilian Joint
Task Force
Other
Militaries
Triggering factors Sudden deployment of security forces or commencement of armed hostilities
Spillover of armed conflicts or tensions in neighboring countries
International measures perceived as threatening to state’s sovereignty
Abrupt or irregular regime changes
Attacks against leaders, prominent persons, or opposition groups and/or terrorist
attacks
Real or perceived acts of religious intolerance
Acts of incitement or hate propaganda
Elections or censuses or their supporting activities
Sudden disruptions to economy or workforce
Discovery of natural resources or commencement of exploitation that may affect
livelihood or sustainability
Commemoration of past events that can exacerbate group tensions
Launching or canceling of events related to accountability processes, especially if
perceived as unfair
Other indicator
Other Notes:

5.
Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities in Northeast Nigeria © START, June 2015 5
REPORTING OUT
During the “Reporting Out” period, indicate here the overall level of risk (low/medium/high) for each factor for each actor. Space is also provided for notes.
Risk Factor Boko Haram Nigerian Military Nigerian Police Civilian Joint Task Force Other Militaries
Armed conflict/ other
instability
Violations of human
rights/humanitarian
law
State weakness
Motives/incentives to
use violence
Capacity to commit
atrocity crimes
Absence of mitigating
factors
Enabling
circumstances or
preparatory actions
Triggering factors

6.
Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities in Northeast Nigeria © START, June 2015 6
Other Notes:
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
To provide feedback, or for any correspondence relating to this training activity or the supporting research, please contact:
Amy Pate
Research Director, START
University of Maryland
apate@start.umd.edu
The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) is supported in part by the Science and Technology Directorate of the U.S. Department of Homeland
Security through a Center of Excellence program based at the University of Maryland. START uses state‐of‐the‐art theories, methods and data from the social and behavioral sciences to
improve understanding of the origins, dynamics and social and psychological impacts of terrorism. For more information, contact START at infostart@start.umd.edu or visit
www.start.umd.edu.
This research was supported by a Centers of Excellence Supplemental award from the Office of University Programs of the Department of Homeland Security with funding provided by the
Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) office of the Department of Defense. The author’s travel to the field was supported by the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) of the U.S.
Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official
policies, either expressed or implied, of SMA, DoD, DNDO, DHS, or START.
This training activity was developed and first used for the Professional Training Program on the Prevention of Mass Atrocities, sponsored by the Montreal Institute for Genocide Studies in
cooperation with the Human Rights Research and Education Centre, and held June 15-17, 2015 in Ottawa, Canada.