2 of 2 presentations What happens now What will happen in the future Institutional setting

1. Climate change and
disaster risk reduction
in Ukraine and Moldova
Olena Maslyukivska
Maslyukivska@gmail.com
16 June 2021
1

2. Outline
• What happens now
• What will happen in the future
• Institutional setting
• Discussion

3. Overview of Disasters in
Moldova in the last 80 years
WB. 2020. Strengthening Moldova’s Disaster Risk
Management and Climate Resilience : Facing Current
Issues and Future Challenges

4. Seismic Hazard Map for a 475-Year Ground Shaking and Geographical
Distribution of Average Annual Losses Due to Earthquake-Related
Direct Damages
Source: Global Earthquake Model, Moldova Seismic Risk Profile (2018). After WB (2019)

5. MD: Earthquake related loses and fatalities
Disaster Risk Profile: Moldova (2017)
https://www.gfdrr.org/en/publication/disaster-risk-profile-moldova

6. MD: GDP losses from
floods and
earthquakes
Disaster Risk Profile: Moldova (2017)
https://www.gfdrr.org/en/publication/disaster-risk-profile-moldova

7. Projected Changes
• RCP8.5 is a high-emissions scenario in which total radiative forcing
reaches approximately 8.5 watts per square metre (W/m2) in 2100 and
continues to increase afterwards.
• RCP6.0 is a stabilisation scenario in which total radiative forcing
is stabilised at approxi-mately 6.0 W/ms2 shortly after 2100,
without overshoot, by the application of a range of technologies
and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
• RCP4.5 is a stabilisation scenario in which total radiative forcing
is stabilised at approxi-mately 4.5 W/m2 shortly after 2100,
without overshooting the long-run radiative forcing target level.
• RCP2.6 (also known as RCP3PD) is a ‘peak-and-decline’ scenario
that leads to very low greenhouse gas concentration levels. Its
radiative forcing level first reaches a value of around 3 W/m2 by mid-
century, and returns to approximately 2.6 W/m2 by 2100.
• In order to reach such radiative forcing levels, greenhouse gas emissions
(and, indirectly, emissions of air pol-lutants) are reduced substantially,
leading to net negative carbon dioxide emissions at the end of the 21st
century.
RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway

8. Moldova: Annual changes for temperatures
• By the 2080s, the rate of warming is
• higher under RCP8.5, average reach
+4.6°C;
• medium under RCP4.5, +2.4°C, and
• smaller under the RCP2.6 scenarios,
+1.3°C
Vulnerability Assessment 2018

9. Projected Changes in Temperature and
Precipitation in Moldova by 2050
Strengthening Moldova’s Disaster Risk Management and Climate Resilience: Facing Current Issues and Future Challenges

10. Observed trends in frequency and severity of
meteorological droughts between 1950 and 2012

11. Number of very extreme heat
waves in future climates
under the different emissions
scenarios
Vulnerability Assessment 2018

12. Conclusions
• For all three Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6 are expected
worsening of the humidity conditions throughout the territory of the RM’s AEZs.
• Reduced rainfall in the summer and autumn period (not compensated by a slight increase in
winter and spring precipitation) against a background of rising temperatures  strong
moisture deficit and sequential increase of the potential evaporation
• Potential evaporation is likely to increase by 7-11 per cent during the growing season over the
2016-2035 time period, and run up to 42-47 per cent by the 2081-2100 time period and make from
1022 mm for Northern to 1312 mm in Southern AEZs under the high emission scenario RCP8.5.
• By the 2081-2100 time the drought conditions of HTC ≤ 0.7 will be observed on the whole territory
of Moldova including Northern AEZ (in August). Furthermore, under RCP8.5 scenario in Central (
July, August) and Southern AEZs in July, August, and September those levels can achieve even the
values characteristic of the medium drought (HTC = 0.6) and strong drought (HTC ≤ 0.5).
• Gradual worsening of optimal ecological-climatic characteristics for plant growing of the
Republic of Moldova’s territory, including Northern areas by the 2081-2100 time period especially for
RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios.
HTC - Hydrothermal Coefficient

13. The socio-economic costs of climate
related natural disasters
• Droughts, floods and hail are significant and both their intensity and
frequency are expected to further increase as a result of climate change.
• 1984-2006, Moldova’s average annual economic losses due to natural
disasters were about US$ 61 million, or 2.13 percent of national GDP.
• The 2007 and 2012 year droughts caused estimated losses of about US$
1.0 billion (MDL 12 billion) and US$ 0.4 billion (MDL 5 billion)
• The 2008 floods cost the country about US$ 120 million.
• The floods in 2010 are estimated to have had an adverse economic impact
on GDP of about 0.15 percent, with total damage and losses estimated at
approximately US$ 42 million. The floods primarily affected rural and
agricultural regions of the country.

14. CC/DRR impact on the development of
Moldova
• Climate change is expected to
• increase the frequency and intensity of most extreme events and natural disasters (e.g. droughts
and floods, hailstorms, torrential rains, late frosts, heavy winds)
• present new climate-related pest and disease challenges
• Important implications for economic growth, especially for the rural areas, who are
more dependent on natural resources and vulnerable to climate-related shocks with fewer
resources to avoid the risks.
• Agriculture, water resources and forestry are among the sectors considered the most
at risk from climate change impacts, as well as human health.
• Agricultural productivity will significantly decrease due to increasing water stress on crops, even
without accounting for the increasing impact of extreme weather events.
• Total water availability will fall below total demand within a couple of decades with implications for
irrigation
• The productivity of Moldova’s forests, which have an estimated total economic value of US$ 66.77
million (2015), will also diminish and pathology (disease) patterns are expected to adversely change.
• In addition, climate change will increase the vulnerability of people and assets to the impact of natural
hazards and can significantly challenge the ability of a country to mitigate, prepare and respond to natural
disasters.

15. Priority Risks and Opportunities for the
Republic Moldova’s Agro-climatic Zones
Moldova’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy by 2020

16. MD: Added Value in Agriculture and GDP Growth, 2001–2015

17. Priority Risks and Opportunities for Water
Resources Sector
Moldova’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy by 2020

18. Priority Risks and Opportunities for Health
Moldova’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy by 2020

19. Projections of Future Changes in Cardiovascular, Respiratory,
and Digestive Diseases in Moldova
Moldova’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy by 2020

20. Priority Risks and Opportunities for the
Energy Sector
Moldova’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy by 2020

21. Ukraine
• Vulnerability Assessment has not been conducted
• National Adaptation Strategy has been developed and to be
approved
• Information scattered

22. Is there climate change in Ukraine?
https://mepr.gov.ua/news/35246.html

23. Highest air temperature (absolute maximum)
Numbers in blue - for the period
1961–2005
Numbers in red - for the period
2006–2019
https://mepr.gov.ua/news/35246.html

24. Deviation from the norm (1961-1990) of average
monthly air temperatures for the periods 1991-
2019 and 2010-2019
Months
Deviation,
C
https://mepr.gov.ua/news/35246.html

25. Redistribution of precipitation by seasons for
1991–2010 compared to the climatic norm
• in the winter season the amount
of precipitation in general has
decreased
• in autumn – increased
• in summer – has changed
insignificantly
https://mepr.gov.ua/news/35246.html

26. Information and reference system "Natural
meteorological phenomena in Ukraine"
• 13,000 cases of natural
meteorological weather
phenomena, which were
observed in Ukraine
during 1968-2010
• 23 500 cases of dangerous
weather conditions, which
were observed from 1981-
2010.

27. January air temperature
Краковська 2020

28. July air temperature
Краковська 2020

29. Annual precipitation (mm)
Краковська 2020

30. "Semeniv Desert" - a phenomenon that
formed on April 16, 2020. in Semenivskyi
district of Chernihiv region due to a dust
storm2
Significant shallowing of Shatsky and Svityaz lakes in 2019
Glimpse into the future

31. Extra humid > 1,33
Humid 1,33–1
Semi-humid 1–0,55
Semi-arid 0,55–0,33
Arid 0,33–0,12
Extra arid < 0,12
Vysotsky-Ivanov moisture content (P / PET)
Краковська 2020

32. UA: GDP losses
from floods and
earthquakes
Disaster Risk Profile: Ukraine (2017)
https://www.gfdrr.org/en/publication/ukraine

33. Flooded zones in 2100 (pessimistic scenario)
Екодія. 2018. Вода близько. Підвищення рівня моря в Україні внаслідок зміни клімату

34. Consequences of sea rise for Ukraine:
structure of flooded land
Екодія. 2018. Вода близько. Підвищення рівня моря в Україні внаслідок зміни клімату

35. Areas of flooding of the territory of settlements
Area of flooding of the territory of settlements
Екодія. 2018. Вода близько. Підвищення рівня
моря в Україні внаслідок зміни клімату
Villages
Cities Towns Townships
% of territory in the flooded zone

36. Main risks to national security in the context of
climate change for Ukraine (NAS)
1) significant water shortage due to the reduction of water resources, which is
exacerbated by the increase in water use (including for irrigation, energy, industry,
housing and communal services)
2) economic loss and people suffering from extreme weather events
3) increase in economic losses due to people suffering from extreme heat (impact on
health and productivity, reduced yields and deterioration of air quality
4) increase in the scale of natural disasters, loss of biodiversity
5) threat to food security (reduced yields, lack of food or their significant rise in price)
6) the need to overcome natural disasters associated with hydrometeorological
conditions and fires
7) depletion and damage of forests, deterioration and loss of ecosystems and
biodiversity
8) loss of territories due to flooding of coastal areas
9) climate refuges
https://mepr.gov.ua/news/36922.html

37. MD: institutional arrangements in disaster risk
management
• The overall institutional arrangements are still in a state of flux
• Recent government reforms have reduced the number of ministries, created new
agencies, and shifted some of the DRM responsibilities from the older institutions to
the newly established ones
• Moldovan institutions involved in disaster risk mitigation can be roughly
divided into
• coordinating emergency commissions,
• early warning and weather forecasting bodies,
• sectoral line ministries, and
• disaster management bodies
• The legal and institutional framework dedicated to DRM mostly articulated
toward emergency response, rather than preventing risks and reducing the
country’s vulnerability to hazards (WB, 2019)

38. Institutional Arrangements for
Disaster Risk Management in
Moldova
General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations
WB. 2020. Strengthening Moldova’s Disaster Risk
Management and Climate Resilience : Facing Current
Issues and Future Challenges

39. MD: institutional
arrangements in climate
change
• Moldova’s Climate Change Adaptation Coordination
Mechanism (CCACM) holds the mandate to
coordinate adaptation planning and action among
all government entities.
• also monitors progress on adaptation, facilitates the
implementation of enabling activities for capacity
development, and oversees the distribution of resources
for adaptation.
• The National Commission on Climate Change (NCCC),
under the CCACM, is a permanent, formalised and
independent body which advises the Government on
how to prepare for climate change.
• The NCCC Board is made up of key stakeholders,
including sectoral ministries, NGOs, academia,
research, private sectors, civil society
representatives and women’s’ associations.
• The NCCC Secretariat is tasked with collecting and
integrating information on climate change across
sectors and producing reports according to the
progress of the NAP implementation.
• The Climate Change Office under the Ministry of
Agriculture, Regional Development and Environment
(MARDE), serves as the technical support unit.

40. Relevant ministries
• Ministry of Agriculture, Regional Development and Environment
• Environmental Agency
• Agency for Energy Efficiency
• Inspection for Environmental Protection
• Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection
• Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure
• Ministry of Education, Research and Culture
• Ministry of Finance

41. Resources:
• Moldova Climate Change web portal: Information on climate science,
international & national legal frameworks, research & reports, links, contacts.
www.clima.md
• Third National Communication to the UNFCCC: this major Moldovan
publication updates information on the country´s carbon emissions, climate
change projections, climate vulnerability and adaptation needs, and more.
http://tinyurl.com/pp64o5t
• National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy till 2020

42. UA: Institutional Arrangements for Disaster
Risk Management
Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine
The State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SES)
• Territorial bodies of the SES and subordinate subdivisions
• Educational and research institutions, i.e. Ukrainian Research
Hydrometeorological Institute
• Enterprises, institutions, organizations, i.e. Ukrainian
Hydrometeorological Center

43. UA: Institutional Arrangements for Climate Change
Climate architecture in Ukraine is evolving
Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural
Resources
Climate policy, NDC, climate adaptation
Ministry of Energy Decarbonization of the energy sector, renewables
Ministry of Health Adaptation of population to climate change
Ministry of Regional Development Revision of state building codes
Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food Adaptation of crops, irrigation
Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and
Agriculture
Industrial policy and CC
Ministry of Internal Affairs Monitoring, emergency management
Ministry of Education and Science Research and education
Ministry of Infrastructure Road building accounting for CC
Ministry of Finance Climate sensitive budgeting

44. Interagency working group (IWG) on coordination of
climate change in the framework of the European
Commission's "European Green Deal”
• Established in January 2020
• First meeting on 19 January 2021
• Chaired by the Prime-Minister
• The key tasks
• coordinating the central level authorities on overcoming the consequences of
climate change;
• strengthening institutional cooperation between Ukraine and the European
Commission in order to implement the EU Green Deal;
• promoting the preparation of a national integrated plan for energy and climate
change for 2021-2030;
• ensuring interaction and coordination of the central level authorities to ensure a
gradual transition to low-carbon development of the state under conditions of
economic, energy and environmental security and improving the welfare of citizens;
• …
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/33-2020-%D0%BF#n35

45. How do you see these changes affect your
area of work?