1. Using AI to understand how preventative interventions can improve the
health of children in the UK and reduce winter pressures on the NHS
Rethinking Poverty, Insecurity and the Cost of Living Crisis in the North
West and Beyond
Martin Chapman

2. Using AI to understand how preventative interventions can
improve the health of children in the UK and reduce winter
pressures on the NHS
A research project funded by Health Data Research UK and the
National Institute for Health and Care Research looking at winter
pressures faced by the NHS.
Designed to generate rapid insight (January – March 2023), which can
be used for future winters.
An interdisciplinary team with expertise in health informatics;
paediatrics and general practice; mental health; inequalities and racism
and health; and policy.

3. Living in cold, damp, and mouldy homes
leads to poor health, such as chest
conditions in children and mental health
problems in adolescents.
The rising cost of energy, coupled with
wages not increasing in line with inflation,
is likely to further widen social inequalities
in child health.
With families unlikely to be able to afford
to heat their homes, health problems for
children and young people (CYP) may
worsen.

4. 1
Implement

5. 2
1
Model
Evaluate

6. What is our ‘digital mimic’?

7. What is our ‘digital mimic’?

8. Engagement
1
Coding
2 Data
3

9. Low SEC Middle SEC High SEC
White British Ethnic Minority
Asthma
Depression
1
Coding
2
Data

10. e.g. Low SEC
+ Asthma
1
Coding
2
Data

11. Interviews
3.1
Engagement
3
Focus groups
3.2
Questionnaires
3.3
Scope
Determine
behaviour
Evaluate

12. 3.2
Questionnaires

13. Household
payments
1
Advice
2
3
Vaccine
eligibility

14. 83,776 individuals analysed
30+ engagement activities
37 subgroups of interest
33,000 simulations run

15. 1. Our model is designed to be an objective entity, and as such its
outputs may not necessarily align with our own personal
thoughts or preferences on the best way forward.
2. Any mention of ‘behaviours’ refers to behaviours in the context
of winter pressures (e.g. use of heating) as opposed to behaviours
in a mental health context.
Note

16. SEC +
Asthma
Unique ID of
observed group
Primary care Note scale

17. +5% of income Eligibility +2 years
SEC +
Asthma

18. +5% of income Eligibility +2 years
Ethnicity +
Asthma

19. Overall health utilisation can
potentially be reduced by issuing
government advice.
Disparities between different SEC
groups can potentially be reduced
by issuing government advice.
Requires further validation before
implementation into policy.
1
2
SEC +
Asthma

20. Very early insight!
The long-term picture is
more complex.

21. github.com/digitalmimic/model github.com/digitalmimic/winter-analysis

22. Dr. Martin Chapman (PI)
Abigail G-Medhin (Data Scientist)
Kian Daneshi (Research Software Engineer)
Professor Mark Ashworth (GP)
Professor Laia Becares (Racism and Health)
Dr. Harriet Boulding (Policy)
Professor Vasa Curcin (Health Informatics)
Professor Seeromanie Harding
(Inequalities)
Professor Craig Morgan (Mental Health)
Dr. Divya Parmar (Health Systems)
Professor Lucilla Poston (Maternal and
Child Health)
Dr. Ingrid Wolfe (Paediatrician)
Dr. Mariam Molokhia (GP)

23. What’s next?
• More data (e.g. additional health utilisation data)
• More PPIE (e.g. additional SEC insight)
• More validation (e.g. against existing intervention implementations)
• Interested in discussions around how our model and/or method can
be applied to related domains and related datasets.
@martin_chap_man

24. Using AI to understand how preventative interventions can improve the
health of children in the UK and reduce winter pressures on the NHS
Rethinking Poverty, Insecurity and the Cost of Living Crisis in the North
West and Beyond
Martin Chapman
Image sources various, including Shutterstock