This document summarizes current housing density and outlook in Utah. It finds that while single-family homes still make up the majority of units, the share of multifamily units has been increasing. The number of households is growing faster than the number of new housing units. Median home prices have risen much faster than incomes over the last decade. Rents have also increased significantly faster than incomes or inflation. The Silicon Slopes tech corridor accounts for a large share of the state's job and housing growth. Housing affordability and availability continue to be challenges, especially for starter homes and lower-priced inventory. Cost increases for land, fees, labor and materials are also issues impacting housing development.

1. Housing Density
Current Conditions and Outlook
Dejan Eskic, Senior Associate
10/24/2019

2. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Density is…Relative

3. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H

4. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Multifamily vs. single-family Share of All Units
10.8%
46.1%
89.2%
53.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
ShareofTotalUnits
Percent Multifamily Units Percent Single Family Units
Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

5. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H

6. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Households are Outpacing Housing
Units
174,272
108,382
170,206
211,115
111,455
150,669
88,670
164,008
176,411
162,288
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2017
Housing Units Households
Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

7. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Average Household Size
3.13
3.00
4.23
3.49
3.65
3.46
3.93
3.92
3.60
3.36
3.16
3.03
3.81
3.98
3.73
3.44
3.71
3.45
3.42
3.70
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
Utah
SaltLakeCounty
Bluffdale
Herriman
Kearns
Magna
Riverton
SouthJordan
WestJordan
WestValleyCity
April 1, 2000 April 1, 2010 2012-2016
e: US Census, Kem Gardner Policy Institute.

8. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Owner Growth 2010-2017
e: US Decennial Census, Kem Gardner Policy Institute.

9. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Renter Growth 2010-2017
Source: US Decennial Census, Kem Gardner
Policy Institute.

10. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Apartment Growth
10,333
19,853
43,412
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Cumulative#ofApartmentUnits
Davis County Salt Lake County Utah County Weber County
Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

11. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Utah is a Home Ownership State
68%
76%
70%
72%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

12. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Best Year Since 2006 for Utah Housing
Condo & Townhome set a Record
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
PermittedUnits
Single family Apartment Condo/Townhome
Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

13. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Starter Home
THEN NOW

14. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Median Sales Price of New
Single-Family is Up Significantly
Source: Metrostudy.
$262,048
$232,522
$258,776
$235,390
$391,403
$376,942
$418,376
$402,762
Weber County
Utah County
Salt Lake
County
Davis County
2018 2010

15. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Percent change in Median Household
Income vs. Median Sales Price, 2010 -
2018
60%
18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Median Sales Price
Median Household Income
Source: UtahRealEstate.com, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

16. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Growing Rent
$1,060
$1,153
$1,138
$937
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
AskingRent
Davis County Salt Lake County Utah County Weber County
Source: CBRE, Inc. and CoStar

17. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Rent is Outpacing Income & Inflation,
2010-2018
36.4%
40.3%
53.2%
30.1%
18.0%
22.4%
24.5%
7.7%
12.4%
12.4%
12.4%
12.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Davis County Salt Lake County Utah County Weber County
Average Asking Rent Renter Median Income Inflation
Source: CBRE, Inc. CoStar, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the U.S. Census Bureau.

18. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H

19. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Utah’s Silicon Slopes Corridor
• 25 miles
• 17 cities
• 74,744 net new jobs since
2010
• 283,702 total jobs
• 37% of increase in
jobs statewide 2010-2017
• Annual growth averages
6.9%
Key Stats
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy
Institute

20. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Housing Growth Corridor
1-in-3 units built along Silicon Slopes in 2018
Total Permitted
Units
Cond/Townhome
Permitted Units
State of Utah 24,226 5,728
Top-10 Cities Ranked by Total Permitted Units Share of Total
Herriman 8.5% 18.9%
Lehi 6.0% 10.7%
St. George 5.6% 4.1%
South Jordan 4.5% 6.6%
Draper 3.7% 1.4%
Salt Lake City 3.6% 1.1%
Eagle Mountain 3.5% 4.3%
Vineyard 3.0% 1.6%
Saratoga Springs 2.7% 2.5%
West Jordan 2.5% 0.8%
Top-10 Share of Total 43.5% 52.0%
Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

21. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
The Challenges Ahead

22. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Percent Change in Median Sales Price of Single
Family Homes in Wasatch Front Counties,
(year-over change, 29 month average +9.1%)
Source: UtahRealEstate.com
13.8%
8.5%
2.7%
8.2%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Jan-17
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Jan-18
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Jan-19
February
March
April
May

23. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Affordability is an Ongoing Issue
Source: Kem Gardner Policy Institute.
Income by AMI
Income
Thresholds
Affordable Price
Thresholds
<50% AMI <$35,735 <$165,000
50% to 80 % AMI
>$35,736 to
$57,176
>$165,000 to $260,000
81% to 100% AMI
>$57,177 to
$71,471
>$260,000 to $325,000
101% to 120% AMI
>$71,472 to
$85,765
>$325,000 to $390,000
> 120% AMI >$85,766 >$390,000

24. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
WF Market is “Top-Heavy”
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
<$150k $150k-
$250k
$250k-
$300k
$300k-
$400k
$400k-
$500k
$500k-
$600k
$600k-
$700k
$700k-
$800k
$800k+
Inventory 2019 Closing
Source: UtahRealEstate.com.

25. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Costs are Rising (10-year % Change)
44%
62% 62%
29% 27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Land (Cost Per
Acre)
Municipal &
Improvement
Fees
Lot
Improvements
Labor Materials

26. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H

27. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H

28. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Debt is on the Rise in Utah
Source: State Level Household Debt Statistics 2003-2018, Federal Reserve
Bank of New York.
$98.4
$128.8
$66
$54
$59
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
PerCapitaDebt$Thousands
TotalDebt$Billions
Household Debt Per Capita

29. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Non-Mortgage Debt
$12.0
$10.0
$7.0
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
$Billions
Auto Debt Student Credit Card
Source: State Level Household Debt Statistics 2003-2018, Federal Reserve
Bank of NY.

30. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
Looking Ahead
• Wasatch Front Next 5 Years
– 95K New Households
– 190K New People
• Affordability will Drive the
Market/Product
– Cities & Builders have the same Client
• Transportation Choice Matters