MNI Russia Business Indicator Rises to 57.9 in January from a Record Low of 45.5 in December

1. Insight and data for better decisions
MNI Russia Business Indicator Rises to 57.9 in
January from a Record Low of 45.5 in December
Business confidence up ahead of Sochi Olympics
70
65
60
55
50
45
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Commenting on the latest survey, MNI Indicators
Chief Economist Philip Uglow said, “It looks like
much of the December downturn was seasonal with
business sentiment rising sharply at the start of 2014
which is good news.”
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Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
40
Jul-13
Firms are benefiting from the depreciation in the
currency seen over the past year. The Effect of the
Rouble Exchange Rate Indicator rose to a record high
of 56.9 in January as more companies said the
exchange rate was helping their business.
75
Jun-13
Both Production and New Orders bounced back to
levels not seen since October, while Order Backlogs
and Supplier Delivery Times hit a series high. Firms’
inventories, however, contracted at the fastest pace
on record as firms ran down their stock levels.
MNI Russia Business Indicator
May-13
While the latest increase is welcomed, part of the rise
is likely to be seasonal following the festive period. It
is also possible that the Sochi Winter Olympics,
which begin in February, had a short-term positive
impact on business confidence.
Apr-13
The MNI Russia Business Indicator increased to 57.9
in January from 45.5 in December, its highest level
since September 2013.
“It is far too early, though, to say that the Russian
economy has turned the corner. The Sochi Olympics
looks like it has given a welcome boost to business
confidence this month and we’ll need to see how
sentiment settles after the games have finished. The
reality is that growth fell to a four year low in 2013
and the Sochi Olympics will not cure Russia’s
economic problems. Putin has some tough calls to
make on structural changes to the country’s growth
model if Russia is to achieve sustained future
growth.”
Mar-13
Sentiment among some of Russia’s largest companies
bounced back sharply in January from a record low
in December, providing some hope that the Russian
economy will recover following the sharp downturn
seen in 2013.

2. MNI Indicators - January 2014
Overview
Nov -13
Dec -13
Jan -14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Business
Indicator
Current Conditions
51.5
45.5
57.9
Sep-13
-
51.6
12.4
27.3%
Future Expectations
45.0
49.5
53.0
Sep-13
-
49.2
3.5
7.1%
Current Conditions
53.5
48.3
58.2
Oct-13
-
53.3
9.9
20.5%
Future Expectations
45.5
47.5
50.5
Sep-13
-
47.8
3.0
6.3%
Current Conditions
53.5
48.8
57.6
Oct-13
-
53.3
8.8
18.0%
Future Expectations
45.5
46.5
50.3
Sep-13
-
47.4
3.8
8.2%
Production
New Orders
Export Orders
Current Conditions
48.7
49.2
50.8
Oct-13
-
49.6
1.6
3.3%
Future Expectations
42.1
41.7
46.3
Aug-13
-
43.4
4.6
11.0%
Current Conditions
50.8
50.5
50.3
-
series low
50.5
-0.2
-0.4%
Future Expectations
48.5
49.7
49.7
Dec-13
-
49.3
0.0
0.0%
Current Conditions
47.4
48.7
51.4
series high
-
49.2
2.7
5.5%
Future Expectations
40.9
41.5
42.7
Sep-13
-
41.7
1.2
2.9%
Current Conditions
47.7
49.0
48.3
-
Nov-13
48.3
-0.7
-1.4%
Future Expectations
46.2
47.2
49.7
Aug-13
-
47.7
2.5
5.3%
Current Conditions
45.7
46.5
38.2
-
series low
43.5
-8.3
-17.8%
Future Expectations
42.6
45.7
43.8
-
Nov-13
44.0
-1.9
-4.2%
Productive Capacity
Order Backlogs
Employment
Inventories
Input Prices
Current Conditions
53.4
51.5
54.5
Sep-13
-
53.1
3.0
5.8%
Future Expectations
51.0
50.5
50.0
-
series low
50.5
-0.5
-1.0%
Prices Received
Current Conditions
53.5
52.8
57.7
Oct-13
-
54.7
4.9
9.3%
Future Expectations
50.0
49.2
49.4
Nov-13
-
49.5
0.2
0.4%
Current Conditions
58.6
59.1
62.6
Jun-13
-
60.1
3.5
5.9%
Future Expectations
56.2
57.8
56.9
-
Nov-13
57.0
-0.9
-1.6%
Financial Position
Interest Rates Paid
Current Conditions
50.5
52.4
52.6
Aug-13
-
51.8
0.2
0.4%
Future Expectations
50.6
50.6
50.0
-
series low
50.4
-0.6
-1.2%
Effect of Rouble Exchange
Rate
Current Conditions
54.1
55.4
56.9
series high
-
55.5
1.5
2.7%
Future Expectations
50.0
50.0
50.0
Dec-13
-
50.0
0.0
0.0%
Current Conditions
49.7
49.5
51.7
series high
-
50.3
2.2
4.4%
Future Expectations
49.2
49.5
49.7
Aug-13
-
49.5
0.2
0.4%
Supplier Delivery Times
Availability of Credit
Current Conditions
58.0
57.9
55.0
-
Oct-13
57.0
-2.9
-5.0%
Future Expectations
52.0
51.1
50.9
-
series low
51.3
-0.2
-0.4%
2