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MNI Chicago Press Release June 2014
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Chicago Business Barometer down 2.9 to 62.6 in June points to GDP rebound in Q2
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MNI Chicago Press Release June 2014
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A.M. E.T., 30 June 2014 Media Release Chicago Business Barometer Down 2.9 to 62.6 in June Barometer Points to GDP Rebound in Q2 New Orders Expand at Slower Rate while Production Surges Above 70 The Chicago Business Barometer eased to 62.6 in June, from a seven month high of 65.5 in May, but was still up sharply on the quarter and consistent with a bounceback in Q2 GDP. The Barometer was up considerably from 52.0 a year ago, marking the fourteenth consecutive monthly expansion, and the third month in a row above 60. The bounceback in Q2 to a solid average of 63.7 from 58.4 in Q1, was the highest level for three years and points to a rebound in GDP growth in the second quarter following the sharp fall in Q1. The Barometer’s strength during Q2 was underpinned by strong rises in both New Orders and Production. In June, a fall in New Orders from a seven month high in May led the Barometer’s decline, although it remained well above the 50 mark, confirming continued strong demand. Order Backlogs also weighed negatively on business activity and declined from May’s three year high. While both components contributed negatively to the Barometer in June, they remained well above their 10 year averages. Production rose firmly above 70 in June, close to April’s level, and ended at an average of 68.3 in the three months to June, nearly eight points above Q1. Increased output led to a gain in the Employment Indicator to a four month high. A lengthening in Supplier Deliveries also supported the Barometer in June, but weighed negatively on business. Latest GDP data showed that a drawdown in stocks hit growth in Q1. Our Inventories Indicator, though, posted a third consecutive monthly increase to the highest since November, as firms rebuilt stocks. Some respondents said they built inventories ahead of a possible strike by longshoremen at ports. Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. For more information: Naomi Pickens Media Relations Deutsche Börse T+1-212-669-6459 naomi.pickens@deutsche-boerse.com 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Chicago Business BarometerTM Sales enquiries: info@mni-indicators.com Editorial content: Philip Uglow, Chief Economist, MNI Indicators Alyce Andres-Frantz Chicago Bureau Chief, MNI News Commenting on the MNI Chicago Report, Philip Uglow, Chief Economist at MNI Indicators said, “The Business Barometer shows activity slowing a little between May and June, but it remains at a high level supported by the strength in Production and New Orders.” “The downward revision to GDP in the first quarter was far larger than expected, and while the data now look a little historic, and the Chicago Report points to a bounceback in Q2, it does mean growth will be slower over the first half of the year than first thought. The Q3 data cycle, not least our own Barometer, will be critical in terms of determining the timing of the first hike in rates,” he added.
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Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. About MNI Indicators MNI Indicators specialises in producing business and consumer surveys designed to present an advance picture of the economic landscape and highlight changing trends in business and consumer activity. The timely reports explore attitudes, perspectives and sentiment across the globe, including China, India and Russia. Alongside MNI Indicators’ core focus on consumer and business surveys in emerging markets, MNI Indicators produces the renowned Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI), a key leading indicator of the US economy. MNI Indicators is part of MNI, a leading provider of news and intelligence, a wholly owned subsidiary of Deutsche Börse AG, and one of the largest worldwide exchange organisations. About ISM-Chicago ISM-Chicago is a non-profit association dedicated to strengthening the community of purchasing and supply management professionals in the Chicagoland area. As an affiliate of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the organization is committed to the ongoing professional development of its members and the purchasing and supply management profession through education, research and communication. For more information on becoming a part of ISM-Chicago, call (847) 298-1940. Notes to Editors Please source all information to MNI Indicators. The MNI Chicago Report is published by MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Börse Group, in partnership with the ISM-Chicago. The MNI Chicago Report is published monthly and contains the Chicago Business BarometerTM and a number of other Business Activity and Buying Policy indicators. The data is seasonally adjusted. The Chicago Business BarometerTM is a closely watched leading indicator of U.S. economic activity and is based on a survey panel of purchasing/supply- chain professionals, primarily drawn from membership of the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago (ISM-Chicago). The survey panel contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms, many with global operations. The Chicago Business BarometerTM is a composite diffusion indicator made up of the Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indicators and is designed to predict future changes in gross domestic product (GDP). An indicator reading above 50 indicates expansion compared with a month earlier while below 50 indicates contraction. A result of 50 is neutral. The farther an indicator is above or below 50, the greater or smaller the rate of change.
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