1. 8th Dec’14 Currency Highlights
USDINR
Technical Outlook:
Prices have taken resistance near the
upper band of the consolidation and
drifted lower near the lower band.
The momentum indicator has gone below
40 levels which indicate lack of momentum
in prices.
MACD has given negative confirmation by
giving cross under the signal line towards
lower levels.
Breach of 62.05 could drift prices further
lower towards 43.80 while failure to
breach the level could move prices
towards 62.15-62.25 levels..
Fundamental News:
The dollar firmed against most major currencies on Friday after official data revealed the U.S. economy added way more payrolls in November than investors were expecting.
The dollar pulled away from more than four-year highs against a basket of other major currencies on Thursday, as comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi boosted demand for riskier assets
The yen hit fresh seven-year lows against the dollar on Thursday, after Japanese media outlets reported that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's coalition government could retain its majority in the lower house of parliament in elections due to be held on December 14
Buy Levels: 62.05 - 62.00
Sell Levels: 62.25 – 62.35 Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
08.12.14
No Data For USD Today
2. 8th Dec’14 Currency Highlights
EURINR
Technical Outlook:
As mentioned prices gave a gap up
opening but failed to move above the
resistance level of 76.95 levels and
drifted lower.
The momentum indicator, RSI has taken
resistance near 60 levels and moved
lower near 40 levels.
We expect prices could continue its
lower move which could drift prices
towards 76.40 levels.
Fundamental News: The euro dropped to two-year lows
against an advancing dollar on Friday
after news broke the U.S. economy picked up way more jobs in November than markets were expecting.. The Labor Department reported earlier that the U.S. economy added 321,000 jobs in November, well past expectations for a 225,000 reading. October's figure was revised up to 243,000 from a previously estimated 214,000, pointing to underlying strength in the labor market The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8% last month, in line with expectations, and the numbers fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2015, possibly earlier than once anticipated. A separate report showed that the U.S. trade deficit hit $43.40 billion in October, down from $43.60 billion in September, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated deficit of $43.00 billion. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $41.20 billion in October.
Buy Levels: 76.40 – 76.45
Sell Levels: 76.70 - 76.75 Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
08.12.14
12.30 PM
German Industrial Production m/m
1.4%
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
08.12.14
3.00 PM
Sentix Investor Confidence
-11.9
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
3. 8th Dec’14 Currency Highlights
GBPINR
Technical Outlook:
Prices have given gap down opening
moved lower but failed to sustain at lower
levels and moved higher near the
downtrend line.
Failure to breach the trend line would
keep prices under pressure while breach
of the trend line could head prices
towards higher levels.
The momentum indicator, RSI has formed
positive divergence which would add
bullishness to prices.
Fundamental News:
The pound held steady against the dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England made no changes to U.K. interest rates, while a solid report on U.S. initial jobless claims gave the dollar support.
Cable was likely to find support at 1.5618, Wednesday's low, and resistance at 1.5765, Monday's high.
The Bank of England's monetary policy committee earlier left U.K. interest rates on hold at their current record low of 0.5% and maintained the size of its asset purchase program at £375 billion.
Meanwhile in the U.S., the Department of Labor reported earlier that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending Nov. 29 decreased by 17,000 to 297,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 314,000, in line with expectations.
Buy Levels: 97.20 – 97.25
Sell Levels: 97.70 – 97.75 Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
08.12.14
05.31 AM
BOE Quarterly Bulletin
More hawkish than expected = Good for currency
4. 8th Dec’14 Currency Highlights
JPYINR
Technical Outlook:
JPYINR prices continued its down trend and
drifted towards its lower levels.
The momentum indicator, RSI remained
below 40 levels which indicate lack of
momentum in prices.
Pullbacks can be used as selling
opportunity rather than buying on dips.
Fundamental News:
The dollar shot up against the yen on
Friday after official data revealed that the
U.S. economy picked up far more payrolls
in November than markets were expecting.
The pair was expected to test support at 117.22, the low from Nov. 27, and resistance at 121.69, the session high.
The yen remained under pressure after Japanese media outlets reported on Thursday that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's coalition government could retain its majority in the lower house of parliament in elections due to be held on December 14.
Buy Levels: 51.30 – 51.35
Sell Levels: 51.90 – 51.95 Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
08.12.14
05.20 AM
Current Account
0.41T
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
08.12.14
10.30 AM
Economy Watchers Sentiment
44.0
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
5. 8th Dec’14 Currency Highlights
Ankit Tikmany (Sr. Research Analyst) ankit.tikmany@choiceindia.com
Amit Pawar (Research Associate) amit.pawar@choiceindia.com
Rohan Shinde (Research Associate) rohan.shinde@choiceindia.com
Deveya Gaglani (Research Advisor) deveya.gaglani@chocieindia.com
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6. 8th Dec’14 Currency Highlights
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