Chicago Business Barometer down 10 points to 52.6 in July. Largest fall since 2008 and lowest since June 2013.

1. Embargoed until 9:45 A.M. E.T., 31 July 2014
Media Release
Chicago Business Barometer Down 10.0 points to 52.6
in July
Barometer Lowest Since June 2013
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped 10.0
points to 52.6 in July, significantly down from May’s
seven month high of 65.5, led by a collapse in
Production and the ordering components, all of
which have been strong since last fall.
A monthly fall of this magnitude has not been seen
since October 2008 and left the Barometer at its
lowest level since June 2013.
In spite of the sharp decline this month, feedback
from purchasing managers was that they saw the
downturn as a lull rather than the start of a new
downward trend. This was especially so given the
recent strong performance and the fact that
Employment managed to increase further in July.
Nonetheless, following a strong Q2, this was clearly a
poor start to Q3 and as such tempers some of the
increased optimism in recent months.
Production’s large decline in July left the indicator
barely in expansionary territory and at a two year
low, although this followed a very strong run with
output above 70 in June. New Orders, the most
heavily weighted component of the barometer, saw
its biggest monthly set back since November 2013.
Order Backlogs, which have expanded in every
month since last October, fell into contraction in July.
The rise in the Employment component in July
appeared to be somewhat of an anomaly, although
one reading of it suggests that panellists expect the
lull in output and orders to prove temporary.
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Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
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Naomi Pickens
Media Relations
Deutsche Börse
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naomi.pickens@deutsche-boerse.com
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Chicago Business BarometerTM
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Editorial content:
Philip Uglow,
Chief Economist, MNI Indicators
Alyce Andres-Frantz
Chicago Bureau Chief, MNI News
Growth in inventories eased in July from a seven
month high in June, while Prices Paid fell for the
second consecutive month but remained well above
50.
Commenting on the MNI Chicago Report, Philip
Uglow, Chief Economist at MNI Indicators said, “The
surprise fall in the Chicago Business Barometer in
July, following a strong second quarter, naturally
raises questions about the sustainability of the
recovery. Some feedback from panellists points to
this being a temporary setback, although we’ll need
to see the August data to judge to what extent this is
a blip“.

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Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
About MNI Indicators
MNI Indicators specialises in producing business and consumer surveys designed to present an advance picture of the economic landscape and
highlight changing trends in business and consumer activity. The timely reports explore attitudes, perspectives and sentiment across the globe,
including China, India and Russia. Alongside MNI Indicators’ core focus on consumer and business surveys in emerging markets, MNI Indicators
produces the renowned Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI), a key leading indicator of the US economy. MNI Indicators is part of MNI, a leading
provider of news and intelligence, a wholly owned subsidiary of Deutsche Börse AG, and one of the largest worldwide exchange organisations.
About ISM-Chicago
ISM-Chicago is a non-profit association dedicated to strengthening the community of purchasing and supply management professionals in the Chicagoland
area. As an affiliate of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the organization is committed to the ongoing professional development of its members
and the purchasing and supply management profession through education, research and communication. For more information on becoming a part of
ISM-Chicago, call (847) 298-1940.
Notes to Editors
Please source all information to MNI Indicators.
The MNI Chicago Report is published by MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Börse Group, in partnership with the ISM-Chicago.
The MNI Chicago Report is published monthly and contains the Chicago Business BarometerTM
and a number of other Business Activity and Buying Policy
indicators. The data is seasonally adjusted.
The Chicago Business BarometerTM
is a closely watched leading indicator of U.S. economic activity and is based on a survey panel of purchasing/supply-
chain professionals, primarily drawn from membership of the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago (ISM-Chicago). The survey panel contains both
manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms, many with global operations.
The Chicago Business BarometerTM
is a composite diffusion indicator made up of the Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs, Employment and Supplier
Deliveries indicators and is designed to predict future changes in gross domestic product (GDP).
An indicator reading above 50 indicates expansion compared with a month earlier while below 50 indicates contraction. A result of 50 is neutral. The
farther an indicator is above or below 50, the greater or smaller the rate of change.