- The Chicago Business Barometer remained below 50 in March, pointing to a slowdown in the US economy. The Barometer increased slightly to 46.3 but was still in contraction territory. - Production increased in March but remained below 50, while new orders and order backlogs rose slightly but remained contracted. Employment also rose slightly. - While some of the weakness may be due to weather and port strikes, the continued weakness in March suggests a wider slowdown. Purchasers expect orders to pick up in the next quarter but demand remained soft in the first quarter.

1. Embargoed until 9:45 A.M. E.T., 31 March 2015
Media Release
Chicago Business Barometer Remains Below 50
Barometer in Q1 Lowest Since Q3 2009; Orders Expected to Rise
The Chicago Business Barometer remained in
contraction for the second consecutive month in
March, failing to bounce back from the sharp plunge
in February and pointing to a slowdown in the US
economy.
The Barometer increased 0.5 point to 46.3 in March,
following a 13.6 point drop in February to a 5½-year
low. The Chicago Business Barometer averaged 50.5
in Q1, down from 61.3 in Q4 and the lowest outturn
since Q3 2009. While part of this decline may be
attributable to the cold weather snap and strike
action at west coast ports, the continued weakness
in March points to a wider slowdown in business
conditions.
Of the five components which make up the
Barometer, Production posted the sharpest increase,
rising 4.5 points to 49.3, but remaining below the 50
breakeven level. New Orders and Order Backlogs
rose slightly, but like Production were unable to
move out of contraction after suffering double digit
losses in February. A small rise in Employment was in
line with muted gains in the ordering components,
lifting it back above 50. Supplier Deliveries was the
only component to decrease in March.
Generally, purchasers reported business in Q1 was
slow as orders softened. There was, however, an
expectation that orders would pick-up over the
coming quarter. According to a special question
included in the March survey, 56% of purchasers
surveyed expected higher New Orders within the
next three months, while 36% expected orders to
remain the same. Only 9% of the purchasers surveyed
said they thought New Orders would be lower in Q2.
Disinflationary pressures were still evident in March
in line with lower oil prices, with Prices Paid
contracting at a faster pace.
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Companies built inventories of finished goods at the
fastest pace in four months, with the Inventories
Indicator rising above 50 for the first time since
December. Inventory accumulation was due to both
an unplanned rise following weaker demand, as well
as some planned stock building due to forecasts of
stronger orders in Q2.
Commenting on the Chicago Report, Philip Uglow,
Chief Economist of MNI Indicators said, “There was
some expectation that the Barometer would bounce
back in March following the sharp fall in February.
Instead we are faced with a second consecutive sub-
50 reading and the weakest quarterly outturn for
more than five years. While purchasers expect to see
demand increase over the second quarter, for now
the data point to a significant loss of momentum in
the US economy during Q1.”

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About MNI Indicators
MNI Indicators specialises in producing business and consumer surveys designed to present an advance picture of the economic landscape and
highlight changing trends in business and consumer activity. The timely reports explore attitudes, perspectives and sentiment across the globe,
including China, India and Russia. Alongside MNI Indicators’ core focus on consumer and business surveys in emerging markets, MNI Indicators
produces the renowned Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI), a key leading indicator of the US economy. MNI Indicators is part of MNI, a leading
provider of news and intelligence, a wholly owned subsidiary of Deutsche Börse AG, and one of the largest worldwide exchange organisations.
About ISM-Chicago
ISM-Chicago is a non-profit association dedicated to strengthening the community of purchasing and supply management professionals in the Chicagoland
area. As an affiliate of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the organization is committed to the ongoing professional development of its members
and the purchasing and supply management profession through education, research and communication. For more information on becoming a part of
ISM-Chicago, call (847) 298-1940.
Notes to Editors
Please source all information to MNI Indicators.
The MNI Chicago Report is published by MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Börse Group, in partnership with the ISM-Chicago.
The MNI Chicago Report is published monthly and contains the Chicago Business BarometerTM
and a number of other Business Activity and Buying Policy
indicators. The data is seasonally adjusted.
The Chicago Business BarometerTM
is a closely watched leading indicator of U.S. economic activity and is based on a survey panel of purchasing/supply-
chain professionals, primarily drawn from membership of the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago (ISM-Chicago). The survey panel contains both
manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms, many with global operations.
The Chicago Business BarometerTM
is a composite diffusion indicator made up of the Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs, Employment and Supplier
Deliveries indicators and is designed to predict future changes in gross domestic product (GDP).
An indicator reading above 50 indicates expansion compared with a month earlier while below 50 indicates contraction. A result of 50 is neutral. The
farther an indicator is above or below 50, the greater or smaller the rate of change.