SlideShare a Scribd company logo
21st Century Air Force Nuclear
Deterrence and Escalation
Air Force Global Strike Command
Dr. Christopher Yeaw, Chief Scientist
Coercio per Scientiam
Tripwire
Current Escalation
Philosophies
Conflict Intensity Evolution
ResistancetoNuclearUse
Extremis
Warfighting
Psychopolitical
US/NATO
Israel ?
DPRK
Iran
Pakistan
India
China
Russia
Determining what
type of escalation
philosophy stands
behind a nation’s
deterrence requires
examination of:
leadership,
strategic culture,
forces, posturing,
doctrine, targeting,
NC2, declarations,
acquisitions,
modernization, etc.
Tripwire
“Asymmetry of Wills”
Conflict Intensity Evolution
ResistancetoNuclearUse
Extremis
Warfighting
US
China
Note: Even national
leaders themselves are
not likely to know in
advance whether
they’ll have the will to
execute the planned
escalation philosophy –
psychology of conflict
Danger zone is where the escalation
philosophy of an adversary differs
markedly from our own and we don’t
realize it … until it’s too late.
Caution: Risk and stake assessments
are not static during conflict … what
might start as a peripheral interest
issue may escalate to a vital interest
(nuclear use against ally, for example)
Psychopolitical
“High Road”: No US nuclear strike
until direst of circumstances
• Pre-nuclear: moral persuasion
• Post-nuclear: moral fortitude
• Risks: loss of war, emboldens useSurprise: Convince the adversary with
a surprise counter-escalatory strike
that they have misjudged the US
• Risk: two nuclear strikes
Warning: Convince adversary
unambiguously that US will promptly
respond to any nuclear strike
• Responsive in case of nuclear use
• Risk: loss of credibility if bluffing
Preempt: US conducts nuclear strike
just prior to adversary’s “imminent”
nuclear strike:
• Surprise de-escalation?
• Risk: adversary use-or-lose pressure
Reactive: US conducts nuclear strikes
only after “a few” adversary strikes:
• Holds the “moral high ground”
• Risk: loss of war, and multiple
unanswered nuclear strikes
Cyber
Nuclear
Space Conventional
DEGRE-09
DEGRE-10
Nuclear
Comparative
Escalation Dynamics
Cross-Domain Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
10101
10101
Visualization Tool: Escalation Vortex
Conventional escalation intensities
range from the lowest levels of pre-
conflict posturing to very high levels
of massed, conventional strikes.
Cyber escalation
intensities range from
the lowest levels of pre-
conflict cyber-ISR to very
high levels of offensive
“counter-value” cyber
strikes.
Space escalation intensities range
from the modest level of local
jamming to high levels of ASAT strikes
and ground station attacks.
Nuclear escalation
intensities range relatively
high level of nuclear force
alerting to the absolute
highest levels of
permanent societal
destruction.
Escalation:
o What is the type of the target?
o How extensive is the target?
o How destructive is the strike (yield)?
o How was the strike delivered?
10101
Space Action
Nuclear Action
Cyber Action
Conventional Action
10101
DEGRE-11/2 Vortex
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
10101
End State: RED Victory
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
Warfighting Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Warfighting philosophy characterized
by mixing of nuclear strikes with
conventional strikes for tactical ends
“Level” Escalation Surface
Extremis Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Extremis philosophy characterized
by very late massive strikes
“Very Sparse” Escalation Surface
Tripwire Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Tripwire philosophy characterized by
early and heavy use of nuclear
strikes at fairly massive levels
“Tilted” Escalation Surface
Psychopolitical Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Psychopolitical philosophy
characterized by “surprising early”
de-escalatory nuclear strikes possibly
coming in several waves
“Puncuated” Escalation Surface
SSBNs and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Adversary ASW and the
small number of SSBN assets
constrains limited strikes
Large-scale SSBN
strikes epitomize
high end escalation
Signaling via SSBN
posture is considered
relatively escalatory
Conversely, SSBNs are a
relatively “safe” target, as
they are purely counter-
force, partially at-sea,
“warhead rich,” and small in
number … lucrative first
strike target set
Cross-domain
conventional strikes on
SSBNs with ASW or other
conventional assets
ICBMs and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Fear of “homeland”
retaliation and overflight
issues constrain limited
ICBM strikes
Large-scale ICBM
strikes epitomize high
end escalation
Only mobile ICBMs allow for
low-escalation signaling
Conversely, ICBMs are a
highly escalatory target,
as they are CONUS-
based and numerous
Could future Russian or
Chinese C-PGS lower
this escalation barrier?
Bombers and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Adversary A2AD
constrains all types
of bomber strikes
Bombers allow a myriad
of options for signaling
Conversely, bombers are only
modestly escalatory targets …
dual-roled and legitimate when
forward deployed, but more
escalatory when CONUS-based
Bombers span almost the entirety of
the conventional force escalation axis,
from continuous presence, through
limited strikes, to massed strikes
Cross-domain
conventional strikes on
bombers with SAMs
The Triad and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
The Triad covers the entire
spectrum of escalation, giving
dual coverage in certain portions.
First strike instability is eliminated
by ICBM force, and bomber force
adds conventional and low-end
nuclear escalation.
“Resilience is defined as the ability to provide acceptable operations despite
disruption: natural or man-made, inadvertent or deliberate.”
- 2013 Defense Science Board
DCA Fighters and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Adversary A2AD,
conventional tasking,
and political hurdles
constrain all types of
DCA fighter strikes
DCA fighters allow some
options for low-end signaling
Conversely, DCA fighters are
only minimally escalatory
targets … dual-roled and
legitimate because in theater
DCA fighters span a large portion of
the conventional force escalation axis,
from continuous presence, through
limited strikes, to air dominance
Cross-domain
conventional strikes on
DCA fighters with SAMs
or SSMs on bases
The “Quadrad” and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
The “Quadrad” covers the entire
spectrum of escalation, giving
dual coverage in certain portions,
and even more options on the
“low end” of nuclear escalation.
First strike instability is still
eliminated by ICBM force, and
DCA fighters augment bombers in
conventional and low-end nuclear
escalation control.
Questions?
Air Force Global Strike Command
Dr. Christopher Yeaw, Chief Scientist
Summer 2012

More Related Content

What's hot

War and Technology
War and Technology War and Technology
War and Technology
Asjad Ali
 
Lecture 1-Technology, Innovation and Modern War
Lecture 1-Technology, Innovation and Modern WarLecture 1-Technology, Innovation and Modern War
Lecture 1-Technology, Innovation and Modern War
Stanford University
 
The Information Warfare: how it can affect us
The Information Warfare: how it can affect usThe Information Warfare: how it can affect us
The Information Warfare: how it can affect us
Luis Borges Gouveia
 
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionLecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Stanford University
 
Anti ballistic missiles i
Anti ballistic missiles iAnti ballistic missiles i
Anti ballistic missiles i
Solo Hermelin
 
Theories of war
Theories of warTheories of war
Theories of war
mrlile
 
Technology and changing nature of warfare
Technology and changing nature of warfareTechnology and changing nature of warfare
Technology and changing nature of warfare
andeedalal
 
Future Warfare
Future WarfareFuture Warfare
Future Warfare
Vapula
 
Team Disinformation - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Disinformation  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Disinformation  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Disinformation - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Stanford University
 
Innovation In Military Technology
Innovation In Military TechnologyInnovation In Military Technology
Innovation In Military Technology
Christopher Chong
 
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...
Stanford University
 
Team Networks - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Networks  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Networks  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Networks - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Stanford University
 
4GW
4GW4GW
Equity Dilemmas for Psychological Operations and Public Information in Milita...
Equity Dilemmas for Psychological Operations and Public Information in Milita...Equity Dilemmas for Psychological Operations and Public Information in Milita...
Equity Dilemmas for Psychological Operations and Public Information in Milita...
Jeffrey Malone
 
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Stanford University
 
Information warfare, assurance and security in the energy sectors
Information warfare, assurance  and security in the energy sectorsInformation warfare, assurance  and security in the energy sectors
Information warfare, assurance and security in the energy sectors
Love Steven
 
Darby All-Terrain, All-Purpose Cart/Sled (ATACS)
Darby All-Terrain, All-Purpose Cart/Sled (ATACS)Darby All-Terrain, All-Purpose Cart/Sled (ATACS)
Darby All-Terrain, All-Purpose Cart/Sled (ATACS)
1st_TSG_Airborne
 
Electromagnetic wave and weapons
Electromagnetic wave and weaponsElectromagnetic wave and weapons
Electromagnetic wave and weapons
utkarsh srivastav
 
Nuclear Weapons: Their Effect On Us & Our World - Courtney Carter
Nuclear Weapons: Their Effect On Us & Our World - Courtney Carter Nuclear Weapons: Their Effect On Us & Our World - Courtney Carter
Nuclear Weapons: Their Effect On Us & Our World - Courtney Carter
Courtney Carter
 
Evolution of strategic doctrines
Evolution of strategic doctrinesEvolution of strategic doctrines
Evolution of strategic doctrines
Venkata Krishnan Sankaranarayanan
 

What's hot (20)

War and Technology
War and Technology War and Technology
War and Technology
 
Lecture 1-Technology, Innovation and Modern War
Lecture 1-Technology, Innovation and Modern WarLecture 1-Technology, Innovation and Modern War
Lecture 1-Technology, Innovation and Modern War
 
The Information Warfare: how it can affect us
The Information Warfare: how it can affect usThe Information Warfare: how it can affect us
The Information Warfare: how it can affect us
 
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionLecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition
 
Anti ballistic missiles i
Anti ballistic missiles iAnti ballistic missiles i
Anti ballistic missiles i
 
Theories of war
Theories of warTheories of war
Theories of war
 
Technology and changing nature of warfare
Technology and changing nature of warfareTechnology and changing nature of warfare
Technology and changing nature of warfare
 
Future Warfare
Future WarfareFuture Warfare
Future Warfare
 
Team Disinformation - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Disinformation  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Disinformation  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Disinformation - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
 
Innovation In Military Technology
Innovation In Military TechnologyInnovation In Military Technology
Innovation In Military Technology
 
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...
Team Conflicted Capital Team - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Comp...
 
Team Networks - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Networks  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power CompetitionTeam Networks  - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
Team Networks - 2022 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
 
4GW
4GW4GW
4GW
 
Equity Dilemmas for Psychological Operations and Public Information in Milita...
Equity Dilemmas for Psychological Operations and Public Information in Milita...Equity Dilemmas for Psychological Operations and Public Information in Milita...
Equity Dilemmas for Psychological Operations and Public Information in Milita...
 
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
Team Army venture capital - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competi...
 
Information warfare, assurance and security in the energy sectors
Information warfare, assurance  and security in the energy sectorsInformation warfare, assurance  and security in the energy sectors
Information warfare, assurance and security in the energy sectors
 
Darby All-Terrain, All-Purpose Cart/Sled (ATACS)
Darby All-Terrain, All-Purpose Cart/Sled (ATACS)Darby All-Terrain, All-Purpose Cart/Sled (ATACS)
Darby All-Terrain, All-Purpose Cart/Sled (ATACS)
 
Electromagnetic wave and weapons
Electromagnetic wave and weaponsElectromagnetic wave and weapons
Electromagnetic wave and weapons
 
Nuclear Weapons: Their Effect On Us & Our World - Courtney Carter
Nuclear Weapons: Their Effect On Us & Our World - Courtney Carter Nuclear Weapons: Their Effect On Us & Our World - Courtney Carter
Nuclear Weapons: Their Effect On Us & Our World - Courtney Carter
 
Evolution of strategic doctrines
Evolution of strategic doctrinesEvolution of strategic doctrines
Evolution of strategic doctrines
 

Similar to 21st Century Air Force Nuclear Deterrence and Escalation

Distributed Operations
Distributed OperationsDistributed Operations
Distributed Operations
guestaff4da
 
Increased Vulnerability To Nuclear Terrorist Actions 20july07
Increased Vulnerability To Nuclear Terrorist Actions 20july07Increased Vulnerability To Nuclear Terrorist Actions 20july07
Increased Vulnerability To Nuclear Terrorist Actions 20july07
martindudziak
 
The Kennedy Doctrine of Flexible Response Flexible Response.docx
The Kennedy Doctrine of Flexible Response Flexible Response.docxThe Kennedy Doctrine of Flexible Response Flexible Response.docx
The Kennedy Doctrine of Flexible Response Flexible Response.docx
oreo10
 
Pendall Ebo National Power
Pendall Ebo National PowerPendall Ebo National Power
Pendall Ebo National Power
pendalld
 
Space and Cyber: Roles and Issues in Deterrence
Space and Cyber: Roles and Issues in DeterrenceSpace and Cyber: Roles and Issues in Deterrence
Space and Cyber: Roles and Issues in Deterrence
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
ballistic missile: solid rocket motorppt.pptx
ballistic missile: solid rocket motorppt.pptxballistic missile: solid rocket motorppt.pptx
ballistic missile: solid rocket motorppt.pptx
Naveenkondi1
 
ekmektsioglou.pdf
ekmektsioglou.pdfekmektsioglou.pdf
ekmektsioglou.pdf
ssuser0a9f64
 
Dirty Bombs
Dirty BombsDirty Bombs
Dirty Bombs
michael maharidge
 
Weapon delivery system
Weapon delivery systemWeapon delivery system
Weapon delivery system
Dhruv Panchal
 
PROJECT SPACE LASER AWEAPONS.docx
PROJECT SPACE LASER AWEAPONS.docxPROJECT SPACE LASER AWEAPONS.docx
PROJECT SPACE LASER AWEAPONS.docx
SvetlanaKhan2
 
Kenneth geers-sun-tzu-and-cyber-war
Kenneth geers-sun-tzu-and-cyber-warKenneth geers-sun-tzu-and-cyber-war
Kenneth geers-sun-tzu-and-cyber-war
MarioEliseo3
 
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
Ijciet 08 02_021
Ijciet 08 02_021Ijciet 08 02_021
Ijciet 08 02_021
IAEME Publication
 
A STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF BLAST LOADING FOR NUCLEAR EXPLOSION ON STRUCTURES
A STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF BLAST LOADING FOR NUCLEAR EXPLOSION ON STRUCTURESA STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF BLAST LOADING FOR NUCLEAR EXPLOSION ON STRUCTURES
A STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF BLAST LOADING FOR NUCLEAR EXPLOSION ON STRUCTURES
IAEME Publication
 
CSBA Changing The Game
CSBA Changing The GameCSBA Changing The Game
CSBA Changing The Game
Dmitry Tseitlin
 
Emp
EmpEmp
War Games Redux?
War Games Redux?War Games Redux?
War Games Redux?
Russian Council
 
WMD - Nuclear Weapons
WMD -  Nuclear WeaponsWMD -  Nuclear Weapons
Raytheon Research Paper
Raytheon Research PaperRaytheon Research Paper
Raytheon Research Paper
Angela Williams
 
Victory Amongst People - Mills- Richards - Ewen McLay
Victory Amongst People - Mills- Richards - Ewen McLayVictory Amongst People - Mills- Richards - Ewen McLay
Victory Amongst People - Mills- Richards - Ewen McLay
Ewen McLay
 

Similar to 21st Century Air Force Nuclear Deterrence and Escalation (20)

Distributed Operations
Distributed OperationsDistributed Operations
Distributed Operations
 
Increased Vulnerability To Nuclear Terrorist Actions 20july07
Increased Vulnerability To Nuclear Terrorist Actions 20july07Increased Vulnerability To Nuclear Terrorist Actions 20july07
Increased Vulnerability To Nuclear Terrorist Actions 20july07
 
The Kennedy Doctrine of Flexible Response Flexible Response.docx
The Kennedy Doctrine of Flexible Response Flexible Response.docxThe Kennedy Doctrine of Flexible Response Flexible Response.docx
The Kennedy Doctrine of Flexible Response Flexible Response.docx
 
Pendall Ebo National Power
Pendall Ebo National PowerPendall Ebo National Power
Pendall Ebo National Power
 
Space and Cyber: Roles and Issues in Deterrence
Space and Cyber: Roles and Issues in DeterrenceSpace and Cyber: Roles and Issues in Deterrence
Space and Cyber: Roles and Issues in Deterrence
 
ballistic missile: solid rocket motorppt.pptx
ballistic missile: solid rocket motorppt.pptxballistic missile: solid rocket motorppt.pptx
ballistic missile: solid rocket motorppt.pptx
 
ekmektsioglou.pdf
ekmektsioglou.pdfekmektsioglou.pdf
ekmektsioglou.pdf
 
Dirty Bombs
Dirty BombsDirty Bombs
Dirty Bombs
 
Weapon delivery system
Weapon delivery systemWeapon delivery system
Weapon delivery system
 
PROJECT SPACE LASER AWEAPONS.docx
PROJECT SPACE LASER AWEAPONS.docxPROJECT SPACE LASER AWEAPONS.docx
PROJECT SPACE LASER AWEAPONS.docx
 
Kenneth geers-sun-tzu-and-cyber-war
Kenneth geers-sun-tzu-and-cyber-warKenneth geers-sun-tzu-and-cyber-war
Kenneth geers-sun-tzu-and-cyber-war
 
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy
"Cross domain” deterrence, escalation geometries and the morphing of strategy
 
Ijciet 08 02_021
Ijciet 08 02_021Ijciet 08 02_021
Ijciet 08 02_021
 
A STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF BLAST LOADING FOR NUCLEAR EXPLOSION ON STRUCTURES
A STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF BLAST LOADING FOR NUCLEAR EXPLOSION ON STRUCTURESA STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF BLAST LOADING FOR NUCLEAR EXPLOSION ON STRUCTURES
A STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF BLAST LOADING FOR NUCLEAR EXPLOSION ON STRUCTURES
 
CSBA Changing The Game
CSBA Changing The GameCSBA Changing The Game
CSBA Changing The Game
 
Emp
EmpEmp
Emp
 
War Games Redux?
War Games Redux?War Games Redux?
War Games Redux?
 
WMD - Nuclear Weapons
WMD -  Nuclear WeaponsWMD -  Nuclear Weapons
WMD - Nuclear Weapons
 
Raytheon Research Paper
Raytheon Research PaperRaytheon Research Paper
Raytheon Research Paper
 
Victory Amongst People - Mills- Richards - Ewen McLay
Victory Amongst People - Mills- Richards - Ewen McLayVictory Amongst People - Mills- Richards - Ewen McLay
Victory Amongst People - Mills- Richards - Ewen McLay
 

More from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

2016 Year In Review
2016 Year In Review2016 Year In Review
All About that Bayes: Probability, Statistics, and the Quest to Quantify Unce...
All About that Bayes: Probability, Statistics, and the Quest to Quantify Unce...All About that Bayes: Probability, Statistics, and the Quest to Quantify Unce...
All About that Bayes: Probability, Statistics, and the Quest to Quantify Unce...
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
LLNL 2015 Year in Review
LLNL 2015 Year in ReviewLLNL 2015 Year in Review
LLNL 2015 Year in Review
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
Everything wrong with statistics (and how to fix it)
Everything wrong with statistics (and how to fix it)Everything wrong with statistics (and how to fix it)
Everything wrong with statistics (and how to fix it)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
The Cyber Pearl Harbor
The Cyber Pearl HarborThe Cyber Pearl Harbor
Lessons Learned from Analysis of Minimum Deterrence Proposals
Lessons Learned from Analysis of Minimum Deterrence ProposalsLessons Learned from Analysis of Minimum Deterrence Proposals
Lessons Learned from Analysis of Minimum Deterrence Proposals
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
Target Fabrication Capabilities
Target Fabrication CapabilitiesTarget Fabrication Capabilities
Target Fabrication Capabilities
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
Strategic Latency and World Power: How Technology Is Changing Our Concepts of...
Strategic Latency and World Power: How Technology Is Changing Our Concepts of...Strategic Latency and World Power: How Technology Is Changing Our Concepts of...
Strategic Latency and World Power: How Technology Is Changing Our Concepts of...
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
Science and Technology Update - March 2014
Science and Technology Update - March 2014Science and Technology Update - March 2014
Science and Technology Update - March 2014
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
Next-Generation Optical Fiber Fabrication
Next-Generation Optical Fiber FabricationNext-Generation Optical Fiber Fabrication
Next-Generation Optical Fiber Fabrication
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
Real-world STEM role models: Lab women profiled by Department of Energy
Real-world STEM role models: Lab women profiled by Department of EnergyReal-world STEM role models: Lab women profiled by Department of Energy
Real-world STEM role models: Lab women profiled by Department of Energy
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
Portunus webinar: Floating port technologies could revolutionize container co...
Portunus webinar: Floating port technologies could revolutionize container co...Portunus webinar: Floating port technologies could revolutionize container co...
Portunus webinar: Floating port technologies could revolutionize container co...
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 
Meet some of the Women of NIF
Meet some of the Women of NIFMeet some of the Women of NIF
Meet some of the Women of NIF
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 

More from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (13)

2016 Year In Review
2016 Year In Review2016 Year In Review
2016 Year In Review
 
All About that Bayes: Probability, Statistics, and the Quest to Quantify Unce...
All About that Bayes: Probability, Statistics, and the Quest to Quantify Unce...All About that Bayes: Probability, Statistics, and the Quest to Quantify Unce...
All About that Bayes: Probability, Statistics, and the Quest to Quantify Unce...
 
LLNL 2015 Year in Review
LLNL 2015 Year in ReviewLLNL 2015 Year in Review
LLNL 2015 Year in Review
 
Everything wrong with statistics (and how to fix it)
Everything wrong with statistics (and how to fix it)Everything wrong with statistics (and how to fix it)
Everything wrong with statistics (and how to fix it)
 
The Cyber Pearl Harbor
The Cyber Pearl HarborThe Cyber Pearl Harbor
The Cyber Pearl Harbor
 
Lessons Learned from Analysis of Minimum Deterrence Proposals
Lessons Learned from Analysis of Minimum Deterrence ProposalsLessons Learned from Analysis of Minimum Deterrence Proposals
Lessons Learned from Analysis of Minimum Deterrence Proposals
 
Target Fabrication Capabilities
Target Fabrication CapabilitiesTarget Fabrication Capabilities
Target Fabrication Capabilities
 
Strategic Latency and World Power: How Technology Is Changing Our Concepts of...
Strategic Latency and World Power: How Technology Is Changing Our Concepts of...Strategic Latency and World Power: How Technology Is Changing Our Concepts of...
Strategic Latency and World Power: How Technology Is Changing Our Concepts of...
 
Science and Technology Update - March 2014
Science and Technology Update - March 2014Science and Technology Update - March 2014
Science and Technology Update - March 2014
 
Next-Generation Optical Fiber Fabrication
Next-Generation Optical Fiber FabricationNext-Generation Optical Fiber Fabrication
Next-Generation Optical Fiber Fabrication
 
Real-world STEM role models: Lab women profiled by Department of Energy
Real-world STEM role models: Lab women profiled by Department of EnergyReal-world STEM role models: Lab women profiled by Department of Energy
Real-world STEM role models: Lab women profiled by Department of Energy
 
Portunus webinar: Floating port technologies could revolutionize container co...
Portunus webinar: Floating port technologies could revolutionize container co...Portunus webinar: Floating port technologies could revolutionize container co...
Portunus webinar: Floating port technologies could revolutionize container co...
 
Meet some of the Women of NIF
Meet some of the Women of NIFMeet some of the Women of NIF
Meet some of the Women of NIF
 

Recently uploaded

一比一原版(Adelaide毕业证)阿德莱德大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(Adelaide毕业证)阿德莱德大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(Adelaide毕业证)阿德莱德大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(Adelaide毕业证)阿德莱德大学毕业证如何办理
teeaszt
 
2024: The FAR - Federal Acquisition Regulations, Part 43
2024: The FAR - Federal Acquisition Regulations, Part 432024: The FAR - Federal Acquisition Regulations, Part 43
2024: The FAR - Federal Acquisition Regulations, Part 43
JSchaus & Associates
 
一比一原版(uoit毕业证书)加拿大安大略理工大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uoit毕业证书)加拿大安大略理工大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(uoit毕业证书)加拿大安大略理工大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uoit毕业证书)加拿大安大略理工大学毕业证如何办理
vfefek
 
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_6_IMMIGRATION_REGIME.pdf
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_6_IMMIGRATION_REGIME.pdfGUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_6_IMMIGRATION_REGIME.pdf
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_6_IMMIGRATION_REGIME.pdf
ProexportColombia1
 
Draft CP-Baggao on Landslide final copyocx
Draft CP-Baggao on Landslide final copyocxDraft CP-Baggao on Landslide final copyocx
Draft CP-Baggao on Landslide final copyocx
DivineLapada
 
一比一原版加拿大麦科文大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版加拿大麦科文大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版加拿大麦科文大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版加拿大麦科文大学毕业证如何办理
qypomky
 
在线制作(umich毕业证书)美国密歇根大学毕业证学位证书原版一模一样
在线制作(umich毕业证书)美国密歇根大学毕业证学位证书原版一模一样在线制作(umich毕业证书)美国密歇根大学毕业证学位证书原版一模一样
在线制作(umich毕业证书)美国密歇根大学毕业证学位证书原版一模一样
zvpwjpty
 
SPONSORED CONTENT - Palmetier Law - Unleashing Small Business Innovations: A ...
SPONSORED CONTENT - Palmetier Law - Unleashing Small Business Innovations: A ...SPONSORED CONTENT - Palmetier Law - Unleashing Small Business Innovations: A ...
SPONSORED CONTENT - Palmetier Law - Unleashing Small Business Innovations: A ...
JSchaus & Associates
 
ColombiaPresentation.pptx macroeconomics
ColombiaPresentation.pptx macroeconomicsColombiaPresentation.pptx macroeconomics
ColombiaPresentation.pptx macroeconomics
JuanFelipeHerrera4
 
History Of Balochistan amazing .pptx / HOB
History Of Balochistan amazing .pptx      / HOBHistory Of Balochistan amazing .pptx      / HOB
History Of Balochistan amazing .pptx / HOB
uzma baloch
 
UN SDSN Sustainable Development Report 2024
UN SDSN Sustainable Development Report 2024UN SDSN Sustainable Development Report 2024
UN SDSN Sustainable Development Report 2024
Energy for One World
 
EI Statistical Review of World Energy 2024
EI Statistical Review of World Energy 2024EI Statistical Review of World Energy 2024
EI Statistical Review of World Energy 2024
Energy for One World
 
一比一原版办理(UQ毕业证)昆士兰大学毕业证
一比一原版办理(UQ毕业证)昆士兰大学毕业证一比一原版办理(UQ毕业证)昆士兰大学毕业证
一比一原版办理(UQ毕业证)昆士兰大学毕业证
eesme1
 
Causes Supporting Charity for Elderly People
Causes Supporting Charity for Elderly PeopleCauses Supporting Charity for Elderly People
Causes Supporting Charity for Elderly People
SERUDS INDIA
 
Health Insurance Coverage for the U.S. Population, 2024 to 2034
Health Insurance Coverage for the U.S. Population, 2024 to 2034Health Insurance Coverage for the U.S. Population, 2024 to 2034
Health Insurance Coverage for the U.S. Population, 2024 to 2034
Congressional Budget Office
 
Spending in the 340B Drug Pricing Program, 2010 to 2021
Spending in the 340B Drug Pricing Program, 2010 to 2021Spending in the 340B Drug Pricing Program, 2010 to 2021
Spending in the 340B Drug Pricing Program, 2010 to 2021
Congressional Budget Office
 
G7 Apulia Leaders Communique, June 2024 (1).pdf
G7 Apulia Leaders Communique, June 2024 (1).pdfG7 Apulia Leaders Communique, June 2024 (1).pdf
G7 Apulia Leaders Communique, June 2024 (1).pdf
Energy for One World
 
The Power of Community Newsletters: A Case Study from Wolverton and Greenleys...
The Power of Community Newsletters: A Case Study from Wolverton and Greenleys...The Power of Community Newsletters: A Case Study from Wolverton and Greenleys...
The Power of Community Newsletters: A Case Study from Wolverton and Greenleys...
Scribe
 
在线办理(西班牙UPV毕业证书)瓦伦西亚理工大学毕业证毕业完成信一模一样
在线办理(西班牙UPV毕业证书)瓦伦西亚理工大学毕业证毕业完成信一模一样在线办理(西班牙UPV毕业证书)瓦伦西亚理工大学毕业证毕业完成信一模一样
在线办理(西班牙UPV毕业证书)瓦伦西亚理工大学毕业证毕业完成信一模一样
dj1cx4ex
 
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_8_COLOMBIAN ENVIROMENTAL REGIME.pdf
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_8_COLOMBIAN ENVIROMENTAL REGIME.pdfGUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_8_COLOMBIAN ENVIROMENTAL REGIME.pdf
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_8_COLOMBIAN ENVIROMENTAL REGIME.pdf
ProexportColombia1
 

Recently uploaded (20)

一比一原版(Adelaide毕业证)阿德莱德大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(Adelaide毕业证)阿德莱德大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(Adelaide毕业证)阿德莱德大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(Adelaide毕业证)阿德莱德大学毕业证如何办理
 
2024: The FAR - Federal Acquisition Regulations, Part 43
2024: The FAR - Federal Acquisition Regulations, Part 432024: The FAR - Federal Acquisition Regulations, Part 43
2024: The FAR - Federal Acquisition Regulations, Part 43
 
一比一原版(uoit毕业证书)加拿大安大略理工大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uoit毕业证书)加拿大安大略理工大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(uoit毕业证书)加拿大安大略理工大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uoit毕业证书)加拿大安大略理工大学毕业证如何办理
 
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_6_IMMIGRATION_REGIME.pdf
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_6_IMMIGRATION_REGIME.pdfGUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_6_IMMIGRATION_REGIME.pdf
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_6_IMMIGRATION_REGIME.pdf
 
Draft CP-Baggao on Landslide final copyocx
Draft CP-Baggao on Landslide final copyocxDraft CP-Baggao on Landslide final copyocx
Draft CP-Baggao on Landslide final copyocx
 
一比一原版加拿大麦科文大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版加拿大麦科文大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版加拿大麦科文大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版加拿大麦科文大学毕业证如何办理
 
在线制作(umich毕业证书)美国密歇根大学毕业证学位证书原版一模一样
在线制作(umich毕业证书)美国密歇根大学毕业证学位证书原版一模一样在线制作(umich毕业证书)美国密歇根大学毕业证学位证书原版一模一样
在线制作(umich毕业证书)美国密歇根大学毕业证学位证书原版一模一样
 
SPONSORED CONTENT - Palmetier Law - Unleashing Small Business Innovations: A ...
SPONSORED CONTENT - Palmetier Law - Unleashing Small Business Innovations: A ...SPONSORED CONTENT - Palmetier Law - Unleashing Small Business Innovations: A ...
SPONSORED CONTENT - Palmetier Law - Unleashing Small Business Innovations: A ...
 
ColombiaPresentation.pptx macroeconomics
ColombiaPresentation.pptx macroeconomicsColombiaPresentation.pptx macroeconomics
ColombiaPresentation.pptx macroeconomics
 
History Of Balochistan amazing .pptx / HOB
History Of Balochistan amazing .pptx      / HOBHistory Of Balochistan amazing .pptx      / HOB
History Of Balochistan amazing .pptx / HOB
 
UN SDSN Sustainable Development Report 2024
UN SDSN Sustainable Development Report 2024UN SDSN Sustainable Development Report 2024
UN SDSN Sustainable Development Report 2024
 
EI Statistical Review of World Energy 2024
EI Statistical Review of World Energy 2024EI Statistical Review of World Energy 2024
EI Statistical Review of World Energy 2024
 
一比一原版办理(UQ毕业证)昆士兰大学毕业证
一比一原版办理(UQ毕业证)昆士兰大学毕业证一比一原版办理(UQ毕业证)昆士兰大学毕业证
一比一原版办理(UQ毕业证)昆士兰大学毕业证
 
Causes Supporting Charity for Elderly People
Causes Supporting Charity for Elderly PeopleCauses Supporting Charity for Elderly People
Causes Supporting Charity for Elderly People
 
Health Insurance Coverage for the U.S. Population, 2024 to 2034
Health Insurance Coverage for the U.S. Population, 2024 to 2034Health Insurance Coverage for the U.S. Population, 2024 to 2034
Health Insurance Coverage for the U.S. Population, 2024 to 2034
 
Spending in the 340B Drug Pricing Program, 2010 to 2021
Spending in the 340B Drug Pricing Program, 2010 to 2021Spending in the 340B Drug Pricing Program, 2010 to 2021
Spending in the 340B Drug Pricing Program, 2010 to 2021
 
G7 Apulia Leaders Communique, June 2024 (1).pdf
G7 Apulia Leaders Communique, June 2024 (1).pdfG7 Apulia Leaders Communique, June 2024 (1).pdf
G7 Apulia Leaders Communique, June 2024 (1).pdf
 
The Power of Community Newsletters: A Case Study from Wolverton and Greenleys...
The Power of Community Newsletters: A Case Study from Wolverton and Greenleys...The Power of Community Newsletters: A Case Study from Wolverton and Greenleys...
The Power of Community Newsletters: A Case Study from Wolverton and Greenleys...
 
在线办理(西班牙UPV毕业证书)瓦伦西亚理工大学毕业证毕业完成信一模一样
在线办理(西班牙UPV毕业证书)瓦伦西亚理工大学毕业证毕业完成信一模一样在线办理(西班牙UPV毕业证书)瓦伦西亚理工大学毕业证毕业完成信一模一样
在线办理(西班牙UPV毕业证书)瓦伦西亚理工大学毕业证毕业完成信一模一样
 
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_8_COLOMBIAN ENVIROMENTAL REGIME.pdf
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_8_COLOMBIAN ENVIROMENTAL REGIME.pdfGUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_8_COLOMBIAN ENVIROMENTAL REGIME.pdf
GUIA_LEGAL_CHAPTER_8_COLOMBIAN ENVIROMENTAL REGIME.pdf
 

21st Century Air Force Nuclear Deterrence and Escalation

  • 1. 21st Century Air Force Nuclear Deterrence and Escalation Air Force Global Strike Command Dr. Christopher Yeaw, Chief Scientist Coercio per Scientiam
  • 2. Tripwire Current Escalation Philosophies Conflict Intensity Evolution ResistancetoNuclearUse Extremis Warfighting Psychopolitical US/NATO Israel ? DPRK Iran Pakistan India China Russia Determining what type of escalation philosophy stands behind a nation’s deterrence requires examination of: leadership, strategic culture, forces, posturing, doctrine, targeting, NC2, declarations, acquisitions, modernization, etc.
  • 3. Tripwire “Asymmetry of Wills” Conflict Intensity Evolution ResistancetoNuclearUse Extremis Warfighting US China Note: Even national leaders themselves are not likely to know in advance whether they’ll have the will to execute the planned escalation philosophy – psychology of conflict Danger zone is where the escalation philosophy of an adversary differs markedly from our own and we don’t realize it … until it’s too late. Caution: Risk and stake assessments are not static during conflict … what might start as a peripheral interest issue may escalate to a vital interest (nuclear use against ally, for example) Psychopolitical “High Road”: No US nuclear strike until direst of circumstances • Pre-nuclear: moral persuasion • Post-nuclear: moral fortitude • Risks: loss of war, emboldens useSurprise: Convince the adversary with a surprise counter-escalatory strike that they have misjudged the US • Risk: two nuclear strikes Warning: Convince adversary unambiguously that US will promptly respond to any nuclear strike • Responsive in case of nuclear use • Risk: loss of credibility if bluffing Preempt: US conducts nuclear strike just prior to adversary’s “imminent” nuclear strike: • Surprise de-escalation? • Risk: adversary use-or-lose pressure Reactive: US conducts nuclear strikes only after “a few” adversary strikes: • Holds the “moral high ground” • Risk: loss of war, and multiple unanswered nuclear strikes
  • 5. Cross-Domain Escalation Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space 10101 10101 Visualization Tool: Escalation Vortex Conventional escalation intensities range from the lowest levels of pre- conflict posturing to very high levels of massed, conventional strikes. Cyber escalation intensities range from the lowest levels of pre- conflict cyber-ISR to very high levels of offensive “counter-value” cyber strikes. Space escalation intensities range from the modest level of local jamming to high levels of ASAT strikes and ground station attacks. Nuclear escalation intensities range relatively high level of nuclear force alerting to the absolute highest levels of permanent societal destruction. Escalation: o What is the type of the target? o How extensive is the target? o How destructive is the strike (yield)? o How was the strike delivered?
  • 6. 10101 Space Action Nuclear Action Cyber Action Conventional Action 10101 DEGRE-11/2 Vortex Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space 10101 End State: RED Victory 10101 10101 10101 10101 10101 10101 10101 10101 10101 10101 10101 10101 10101
  • 7. Warfighting Escalation Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space Warfighting philosophy characterized by mixing of nuclear strikes with conventional strikes for tactical ends “Level” Escalation Surface
  • 8. Extremis Escalation Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space Extremis philosophy characterized by very late massive strikes “Very Sparse” Escalation Surface
  • 9. Tripwire Escalation Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space Tripwire philosophy characterized by early and heavy use of nuclear strikes at fairly massive levels “Tilted” Escalation Surface
  • 10. Psychopolitical Escalation Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space Psychopolitical philosophy characterized by “surprising early” de-escalatory nuclear strikes possibly coming in several waves “Puncuated” Escalation Surface
  • 11. SSBNs and Escalation Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space Adversary ASW and the small number of SSBN assets constrains limited strikes Large-scale SSBN strikes epitomize high end escalation Signaling via SSBN posture is considered relatively escalatory Conversely, SSBNs are a relatively “safe” target, as they are purely counter- force, partially at-sea, “warhead rich,” and small in number … lucrative first strike target set Cross-domain conventional strikes on SSBNs with ASW or other conventional assets
  • 12. ICBMs and Escalation Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space Fear of “homeland” retaliation and overflight issues constrain limited ICBM strikes Large-scale ICBM strikes epitomize high end escalation Only mobile ICBMs allow for low-escalation signaling Conversely, ICBMs are a highly escalatory target, as they are CONUS- based and numerous Could future Russian or Chinese C-PGS lower this escalation barrier?
  • 13. Bombers and Escalation Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space Adversary A2AD constrains all types of bomber strikes Bombers allow a myriad of options for signaling Conversely, bombers are only modestly escalatory targets … dual-roled and legitimate when forward deployed, but more escalatory when CONUS-based Bombers span almost the entirety of the conventional force escalation axis, from continuous presence, through limited strikes, to massed strikes Cross-domain conventional strikes on bombers with SAMs
  • 14. The Triad and Escalation Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space The Triad covers the entire spectrum of escalation, giving dual coverage in certain portions. First strike instability is eliminated by ICBM force, and bomber force adds conventional and low-end nuclear escalation. “Resilience is defined as the ability to provide acceptable operations despite disruption: natural or man-made, inadvertent or deliberate.” - 2013 Defense Science Board
  • 15. DCA Fighters and Escalation Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space Adversary A2AD, conventional tasking, and political hurdles constrain all types of DCA fighter strikes DCA fighters allow some options for low-end signaling Conversely, DCA fighters are only minimally escalatory targets … dual-roled and legitimate because in theater DCA fighters span a large portion of the conventional force escalation axis, from continuous presence, through limited strikes, to air dominance Cross-domain conventional strikes on DCA fighters with SAMs or SSMs on bases
  • 16. The “Quadrad” and Escalation Cyber Nuclear Conventional Space The “Quadrad” covers the entire spectrum of escalation, giving dual coverage in certain portions, and even more options on the “low end” of nuclear escalation. First strike instability is still eliminated by ICBM force, and DCA fighters augment bombers in conventional and low-end nuclear escalation control.
  • 17. Questions? Air Force Global Strike Command Dr. Christopher Yeaw, Chief Scientist Summer 2012