This presentation was given as part of the Cross-Domain Deterrence Seminar hosted by the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in November 2014.
21st Century Air Force Nuclear Deterrence and Escalation
1. 21st Century Air Force Nuclear
Deterrence and Escalation
Air Force Global Strike Command
Dr. Christopher Yeaw, Chief Scientist
Coercio per Scientiam
2. Tripwire
Current Escalation
Philosophies
Conflict Intensity Evolution
ResistancetoNuclearUse
Extremis
Warfighting
Psychopolitical
US/NATO
Israel ?
DPRK
Iran
Pakistan
India
China
Russia
Determining what
type of escalation
philosophy stands
behind a nation’s
deterrence requires
examination of:
leadership,
strategic culture,
forces, posturing,
doctrine, targeting,
NC2, declarations,
acquisitions,
modernization, etc.
3. Tripwire
“Asymmetry of Wills”
Conflict Intensity Evolution
ResistancetoNuclearUse
Extremis
Warfighting
US
China
Note: Even national
leaders themselves are
not likely to know in
advance whether
they’ll have the will to
execute the planned
escalation philosophy –
psychology of conflict
Danger zone is where the escalation
philosophy of an adversary differs
markedly from our own and we don’t
realize it … until it’s too late.
Caution: Risk and stake assessments
are not static during conflict … what
might start as a peripheral interest
issue may escalate to a vital interest
(nuclear use against ally, for example)
Psychopolitical
“High Road”: No US nuclear strike
until direst of circumstances
• Pre-nuclear: moral persuasion
• Post-nuclear: moral fortitude
• Risks: loss of war, emboldens useSurprise: Convince the adversary with
a surprise counter-escalatory strike
that they have misjudged the US
• Risk: two nuclear strikes
Warning: Convince adversary
unambiguously that US will promptly
respond to any nuclear strike
• Responsive in case of nuclear use
• Risk: loss of credibility if bluffing
Preempt: US conducts nuclear strike
just prior to adversary’s “imminent”
nuclear strike:
• Surprise de-escalation?
• Risk: adversary use-or-lose pressure
Reactive: US conducts nuclear strikes
only after “a few” adversary strikes:
• Holds the “moral high ground”
• Risk: loss of war, and multiple
unanswered nuclear strikes
5. Cross-Domain Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
10101
10101
Visualization Tool: Escalation Vortex
Conventional escalation intensities
range from the lowest levels of pre-
conflict posturing to very high levels
of massed, conventional strikes.
Cyber escalation
intensities range from
the lowest levels of pre-
conflict cyber-ISR to very
high levels of offensive
“counter-value” cyber
strikes.
Space escalation intensities range
from the modest level of local
jamming to high levels of ASAT strikes
and ground station attacks.
Nuclear escalation
intensities range relatively
high level of nuclear force
alerting to the absolute
highest levels of
permanent societal
destruction.
Escalation:
o What is the type of the target?
o How extensive is the target?
o How destructive is the strike (yield)?
o How was the strike delivered?
6. 10101
Space Action
Nuclear Action
Cyber Action
Conventional Action
10101
DEGRE-11/2 Vortex
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
10101
End State: RED Victory
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
10101
11. SSBNs and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Adversary ASW and the
small number of SSBN assets
constrains limited strikes
Large-scale SSBN
strikes epitomize
high end escalation
Signaling via SSBN
posture is considered
relatively escalatory
Conversely, SSBNs are a
relatively “safe” target, as
they are purely counter-
force, partially at-sea,
“warhead rich,” and small in
number … lucrative first
strike target set
Cross-domain
conventional strikes on
SSBNs with ASW or other
conventional assets
12. ICBMs and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Fear of “homeland”
retaliation and overflight
issues constrain limited
ICBM strikes
Large-scale ICBM
strikes epitomize high
end escalation
Only mobile ICBMs allow for
low-escalation signaling
Conversely, ICBMs are a
highly escalatory target,
as they are CONUS-
based and numerous
Could future Russian or
Chinese C-PGS lower
this escalation barrier?
13. Bombers and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Adversary A2AD
constrains all types
of bomber strikes
Bombers allow a myriad
of options for signaling
Conversely, bombers are only
modestly escalatory targets …
dual-roled and legitimate when
forward deployed, but more
escalatory when CONUS-based
Bombers span almost the entirety of
the conventional force escalation axis,
from continuous presence, through
limited strikes, to massed strikes
Cross-domain
conventional strikes on
bombers with SAMs
14. The Triad and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
The Triad covers the entire
spectrum of escalation, giving
dual coverage in certain portions.
First strike instability is eliminated
by ICBM force, and bomber force
adds conventional and low-end
nuclear escalation.
“Resilience is defined as the ability to provide acceptable operations despite
disruption: natural or man-made, inadvertent or deliberate.”
- 2013 Defense Science Board
15. DCA Fighters and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
Adversary A2AD,
conventional tasking,
and political hurdles
constrain all types of
DCA fighter strikes
DCA fighters allow some
options for low-end signaling
Conversely, DCA fighters are
only minimally escalatory
targets … dual-roled and
legitimate because in theater
DCA fighters span a large portion of
the conventional force escalation axis,
from continuous presence, through
limited strikes, to air dominance
Cross-domain
conventional strikes on
DCA fighters with SAMs
or SSMs on bases
16. The “Quadrad” and Escalation
Cyber
Nuclear
Conventional
Space
The “Quadrad” covers the entire
spectrum of escalation, giving
dual coverage in certain portions,
and even more options on the
“low end” of nuclear escalation.
First strike instability is still
eliminated by ICBM force, and
DCA fighters augment bombers in
conventional and low-end nuclear
escalation control.