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Role of Space
in Deterrence
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Cross-Domain Deterrence Seminar
November 18, 2014
Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte
retired
Space Increasingly Contested
-  DNI World Wide Threat Assessment
January 2014
U.S. National Space Policy
“The United States considers
the sustainability, stability, and
free access to, and use of, space
vital to its national interests.”
Deterrence in Space
“Space deterrence” does not exist
•  Deterrence does not operate by domain
•  Deterrence operates in minds of potential
adversaries
But deterrence still has a role in space
•  More nuanced, less determinative
•  Inherently cross domain
Deterrence in
DoD Space Policy
-  DoD Directive 3100.10, October 2012
Multiple Layers of Deterrence
Cause adversary leadership to understand that attacks
on our space assets will:
•  break international norms;
•  engage a coalition of space-faring countries;
•  have limited impact on our war-fighting capabilities;
•  risk prompting a damaging response including in
other domains.
Also risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation.
More Nuanced Message
“U.S. National Space Policy states clearly that use of space is vital to our national
interests. Thus any country contemplating interference with our space capabilities
must understand how seriously we would treat such an infringement.
“Attacking our space assets is not just another military tactic. Any leadership
contemplating interference with U.S. space capabilities should understand the
complex and dangerous nature of such a decision. Interference would infringe our
sovereign rights. It would likely engage the interest and capabilities of other countries
as well. Interference cannot be assured of success, particularly as we strengthen the
resilience of our architectures and the ability of our forces to operate through a
degraded environment. On the other hand, interference could prompt an asymmetric
response, imposing strategic or operational costs that outweigh any tactical benefits.
Finally, interference could create a real risk of miscalculation and rapid escalation.
“This is clearly not a decision for a tactical or operational commander, who may be
looking for a fleeting military advantage. This is a decision for national leadership,
who should better understand the escalation risks, the strategic consequences ... and
the wisdom of restraint.”
-  Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy
Singapore, May 2012
More Nuanced Message
“Think twice!”
But Deterrence in Space
Can Fail in Minds of Adversary
Disrupting space assets may seem trivial versus:
•  confronting a superpower;
•  sinking a frigate or attacking an airbase.
Pre-emptive attack may seem inviting if judged
possible in a manner that:
•  provides little warning;
•  is hard to attribute;
•  avoids lasting damage.
Vulnerable Space Capabilities
•  Erode war-fighting capabilities
•  Erode overall deterrence and crisis
stability
•  Increase risk of miscalculation and
unintended escalation
Resilience in Space
Ensuring mission success even when space
capabilities under attack.
Resilience can be increased by:
•  improving space situational awareness
•  better protecting individual satellites,
communication links, and ground stations
•  distributing or hosting capabilities
•  integrating commercial and allied systems
•  having cross-domain backup capabilities
•  being able to disrupt adversary counterspace
capabilities
Resilience in
DoD Space Policy
-  DoD Directive 3100.10, October 2012
Conclusion
• Deterrence does not operate uniquely in space or any separate
domain. It operates across domains and in the minds of a
potential adversary.
• Our space posture and policy can contribute to deterring
attacks on our space assets through a multilayered approach
to complicating adversary decision-making.
• That said, deterrence of such attacks can easily fail, with
important implications for our warfighting capabilities and
overall deterrence and crisis stability.
• More important than deterrence in space, is our resilience –
the capacity to ensure mission success despite interference
with our space assets.

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Role of Space in Deterrence

  • 1. Role of Space in Deterrence Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Cross-Domain Deterrence Seminar November 18, 2014 Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte retired
  • 2. Space Increasingly Contested -  DNI World Wide Threat Assessment January 2014
  • 3. U.S. National Space Policy “The United States considers the sustainability, stability, and free access to, and use of, space vital to its national interests.”
  • 4. Deterrence in Space “Space deterrence” does not exist •  Deterrence does not operate by domain •  Deterrence operates in minds of potential adversaries But deterrence still has a role in space •  More nuanced, less determinative •  Inherently cross domain
  • 5. Deterrence in DoD Space Policy -  DoD Directive 3100.10, October 2012
  • 6. Multiple Layers of Deterrence Cause adversary leadership to understand that attacks on our space assets will: •  break international norms; •  engage a coalition of space-faring countries; •  have limited impact on our war-fighting capabilities; •  risk prompting a damaging response including in other domains. Also risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation.
  • 7. More Nuanced Message “U.S. National Space Policy states clearly that use of space is vital to our national interests. Thus any country contemplating interference with our space capabilities must understand how seriously we would treat such an infringement. “Attacking our space assets is not just another military tactic. Any leadership contemplating interference with U.S. space capabilities should understand the complex and dangerous nature of such a decision. Interference would infringe our sovereign rights. It would likely engage the interest and capabilities of other countries as well. Interference cannot be assured of success, particularly as we strengthen the resilience of our architectures and the ability of our forces to operate through a degraded environment. On the other hand, interference could prompt an asymmetric response, imposing strategic or operational costs that outweigh any tactical benefits. Finally, interference could create a real risk of miscalculation and rapid escalation. “This is clearly not a decision for a tactical or operational commander, who may be looking for a fleeting military advantage. This is a decision for national leadership, who should better understand the escalation risks, the strategic consequences ... and the wisdom of restraint.” -  Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Singapore, May 2012
  • 9. But Deterrence in Space Can Fail in Minds of Adversary Disrupting space assets may seem trivial versus: •  confronting a superpower; •  sinking a frigate or attacking an airbase. Pre-emptive attack may seem inviting if judged possible in a manner that: •  provides little warning; •  is hard to attribute; •  avoids lasting damage.
  • 10. Vulnerable Space Capabilities •  Erode war-fighting capabilities •  Erode overall deterrence and crisis stability •  Increase risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation
  • 11. Resilience in Space Ensuring mission success even when space capabilities under attack. Resilience can be increased by: •  improving space situational awareness •  better protecting individual satellites, communication links, and ground stations •  distributing or hosting capabilities •  integrating commercial and allied systems •  having cross-domain backup capabilities •  being able to disrupt adversary counterspace capabilities
  • 12. Resilience in DoD Space Policy -  DoD Directive 3100.10, October 2012
  • 13. Conclusion • Deterrence does not operate uniquely in space or any separate domain. It operates across domains and in the minds of a potential adversary. • Our space posture and policy can contribute to deterring attacks on our space assets through a multilayered approach to complicating adversary decision-making. • That said, deterrence of such attacks can easily fail, with important implications for our warfighting capabilities and overall deterrence and crisis stability. • More important than deterrence in space, is our resilience – the capacity to ensure mission success despite interference with our space assets.