Geomarketing in the shopping center concept

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  • Geomarketing in the shopping center concept

    1. 1. Geomarketing in the shopping center concept
    2. 2. The California experience Lines shown on the map: - Spatial clients distribution - Population density - Stores chain - Sales results All data is divided by categories. All this is the material for analysis.
    3. 3. Common tasks: • Comparison of investment attractiveness of the cities and regions of Russia for the expansion • Chain planning from scratch in a specific city (how much? where? when?) • Chain expansion in a specific city • Optimizing the work of existing chain (assortment, etc.) • Forecast of the revenue in a potential place • Assessment of the optimal point size • Assessment of the advertizing places (including direct marketing)
    4. 4. Some tasks solved with use of geomarketing • Planning chains of different profiles (“from scratch”, expansion, etc.) in a region • Optimizing trading network activity • Justification of the selection of functional purpose of a building footprint (Best Used and others.) • Analysis of existing object environment, situation forecast, tenants matrix and so on • Assessment of investment attractiveness for the construction (district, city, region)
    5. 5. Planning a chain of large commercial objects in Saint Petersburg and Leningrad region • Determination of the number of shopping centers • The most attractive lines (or places) from the point of view of consumer, competitors, territory development • Location adjustment • Construction and analysis of future trade zones • Justification of tenants matrix • Attendance forecast • Map of the future chain in one year, two years, etc.
    6. 6. Planning a chain of large commercial objects in Saint Petersburg and Leningrad region
    7. 7. Planning a chain of large commercial objects in Moscow, Moscow region and other cities • Collecting and actualizing data • Spatial modeling • Selection of the most attractive zones by global analysis • Justification of the opening order by zone rating • Location adjustment of the site within the zone by local analysis • Justification of the required site size • Justification of the shopping center format (retail- park) depending on the territory and the market needs • Construction and analysis of trade zones Retail-parks chain of Moscow region
    8. 8. Resource zones analysis • Construction of a trade (resource) zone • Collecting and actualizing data on it • Justification of the functional purpose of a site, the format of commercial real estate and its spaces • Justification of the matrix of tenants in commercial real estate object (area, profile) • Flows and visitors forecast • Forecast of the market potential and of the average check in a construction place • Preparation of high quality material to attract tenants
    9. 9. Trade zone • A district where commercial organization can sell economically sound some product or service • Territory with consumers of certain goods or services of a particular firm or a group of firms • Territory that is a source of consumers who are attracted by the retailer to his store
    10. 10. Zoning examples MoreMore:: - Expert zones- Expert zones - Huff model- Huff model - “Russian Huff” model- “Russian Huff” model ((CSR projectCSR project)) and othersand others Zones obtained by geocoding of clientsZones obtained by geocoding of clients (delivery, consumer maps, etc.) Transport availability of an object Walking availability of the outlets Zones of equidistance from the outlets Zones obtained by population survey
    11. 11. Advantages of knowing a trade zone • Specification of the consumer characteristics • Determination of the push and pull strategy • Intersection of trade zones of chain branches or franchises • Predicting the actions of competitors • Counting shops of the actual necessity in this area • Detecting lack of trade zones (geographical territories): obstacles in achieving a store • Considering other factors: competition, financial institutes, labor force, suppliers location, legal restrictions, development perspectives
    12. 12. Accessibility zones and trade zones
    13. 13. Location factors • Population and its characteristics • Availability of labor force • Proximity to suppliers • Promotion opportunity • Economic basis: enterprises and companies providing population with work (leading enterprise role is particularly important) • Competitive environment • Availability of places for the store siting • Legislation
    14. 14. Quantitative parameters (the number of potential consumers)
    15. 15. Qualitative parameters (target group correspondence) • Sex-age structure • Income level • Consumption pattern
    16. 16. Income level evaluation
    17. 17. Economic indicators of the local market • Estimation of capacity (target audience solvency) • Estimation of saturation (distribution of demand among competitors) • Attendance forecast
    18. 18. Competition assessment
    19. 19. Perspectives of town-planning development Map of the functional zones borders displaying parameters of planned development of the matched zones and borders of Saint Petersburg Map of Saint Petersburg town zoning regarding the borders of territorial zones
    20. 20. Resource zones analysis
    21. 21. Residential function analysis • Determination of preferred characteristics of housing estate on the territory • Competitive situation assessment • Estimation of the nearest time of construction of social infrastructure objects (kindergarten, school) in a housing estate • Estimation of the nonresidential function on the ground floors – integrated premises in a housing estate (trade, entertainment, sport, offices, etc.) • Map (base) of the buildings under construction • Geomarketing information system for estimation of territory infrastructure
    22. 22. Analysis of objects environment Shopping centers, malls, gardening centers, etc. – Trading zone construction by distance from an object – Data collection and update (about consumer, competitors, territorial development on maps and in zones) – Calculation of zone provision of trade and office spaces – Justification of tenants matrix inside the trading object (size, profile) – Flows forecast, visitors estimation of future object – Market potential forecast, average check in a building place forecast – Qualified material preparation for tenants attracting Housing estates and malls – Competition situation estimation, map of buildings under construction (geodatabase) – Non-residential function forecast on the ground floors – built-in facilities in a housing estate (trade, entertainment, sport, offices, etc.) – Short term construction estimation of social infrastructure objects (kindergarten, school) in a housing estate – Geomarketing information system for territorial infrastructure estimation 5 мин 5 - 10 мин 10 - 15 мин ожидаемое кол-во жилой недвижимости ожидаемое кол-во нежилой недвижимости 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 % Удаленность на транспорте от ТРК Соотношение приростов жилой и нежилой недвижимости (прогноз с 2006 - 2008 г.г.) For development (shopping center, mall, housing estate, etc.)
    23. 23. GIS in real estate • Strategic tasks – Expansion of services – Improving the quality of decision-making of clients, consumers, investors or company managers – Possibility to get information from the other information systems (commercial companies, state agencies) and considering them while making decision – Entering new markets (geomarketing research for trade chains) – Obtaining of worthy competitive advantages and company positioning • Day-to-day tasks – Day-to-day collection, updating and visualization of real estate objects – Marketing analysis of territories and real estate market – Geomarketing analysis of other markets – Making of high-quality reports for company management, investor, consumer or client – Additional possibilities to navigate within the city and to visualize in the Internet
    24. 24. GIS advantages. Development For investor: – Understandable format for assessment – Multifactorial justified geomarketing analysis of territories and real estate Reducing the risk of investments For developer: – Automated process of collecting and updating of spatial information about real estate object (acceleration of agents performance) – Construction of analytical block, output of new indicators, output of factors influencing the territory assessment – Creation of additional opportunities making a profit (e.g. reference, operational consulting) – Convenience (on the basis of common formats) of embedding GIS into Your information system Reducing costs
    25. 25. Shopping center concept • Location and trade zone research • Analyzing efficiency of siting in a shopping center for anchor tenants • Defining the optimal size and format of a shopping center • Compiling the matrix of balanced tenancy • Costs assessment and project profitability forecast • Task for pre-project works
    26. 26. Geomarketing research onGeomarketing research on assessment of the attractiveness ofassessment of the attractiveness of multifunctional complex locationmultifunctional complex location (business center, shopping mall, including supermarket on the ground floor) address: Saint Petersburg, Lanskoye shosse 35
    27. 27. Research aims • Assessing the attractiveness of the location of the future shopping mall • Assessing the attractiveness of the location of the future business center • Recommendations for choosing a future business form: shopping center or business center • Forecast of the future shopping mall attendance • Assessing the attractiveness of the location of a middle- class supermarket in a shopping center or a business center • Forecast of the future supermarket attendance
    28. 28. Territory
    29. 29. Areas of the subway accessibility zones, km² Udelnaya 7,28 Lesnaya 5,21 Chernaya rechka 5,03 Pionerskaya 4,93 Ploschad Muzhestva 3,37 Komendantsky prospekt 2,96 Politekhnicheskaya 2,77 Staraya derevnya 2,75 Petrogradskaya 2,65 Vyborgskaya 2,59 Ozerki 1,75 Krestovsky ostrov 0,29 Territory
    30. 30. Active population by accessibility zones Resource accessibility zone Active population % of active population among total population in a zone Active population density (persons per km² of a zone) 15 min transport 180093 63 4329,16 10 min transport 77386 62 5124,9 5 min transport 22417 61,7 5899,21 15 min walking 22214 62,8 4533,47 10 min walking 14431 61,4 6559,55 One population concentration focus is visible. It is within 15 min zone in the area of Pionerskaya and Komendantsky prospekt
    31. 31. Assessing the residents income level Multifactorial assessment model Density of inhabited new buildings since 90s Density of residential buildings in construction Housing supply market Large congestions of the people with high income can be assessed in the northern part of 5 min transport accessibility zone in the area of Pionerskaya and Udelanaya subway stations
    32. 32. Evaluation of the transport network and car flows Условные обозначения avg 0 - 9021 9022 - 18042 18043 - 27062 27063 - 36083 36084 - 45104 •Object zone is transit •About 50 to 70 thousands of cars pass the object both ways per day •The volume of the flow from the center can be estimated by the two bridges •Average daily car flow is bigger on Torzhkovskaya ulitsa
    33. 33. Pedestrian flows assessment Зоны_станций_метро_15_минут2 Mean 261 - 2479 2480 - 4696 4697 - 6913 6914 - 9130 9131 - 11347 In the zone of Chernaya rechka the average amount of persons per km² is 6484 or 32 584 persons per the full area (estimation model) 50 000 people pass through the station Chernaya rechka
    34. 34. Area indexes (field work) Maximum local flow in the zone 140472 15984 Average local flow in the zone 30000 10507 Minimum local flow in the zone 6912 6912 Characteristic 10 min walking accessibility 10 min walking accessibility Area indexes (model) Zone area 2,2 km² 0,5 km² Maximum local flow in the zone 32974 7843 Average local flow in the zone 25411 6854 Minimum local flow in the zone 8530 4940 Pedestrian flows assessment
    35. 35. Pedestrian flows assessment
    36. 36. Characteristic 10 min walking accessibility 10 min walking accessibility Indexes, calibrated model Zone area 2,2 кв.км 0,5 кв.км Maximum local flow in the zone 86723 11914 Average local flow in the zone 27706 8681 Minimum local flow in the zone 7721 5926 Pedestrian flows assessment
    37. 37. Competitive analysis 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 10-ти минутная транспортная 15-ти минутная пешеходная 10-ти минутная пешеходная Средняяплотность всех конкурентовпо ресурсным зонам Accessibility zone HM SC SM BC C SM D 15 min transport 7 19 6 76 5 11 27 10 min transport 3 10 4 33 1 3 16 5 min transport 0 4 0 13 0 0 9
    38. 38. Accessibility zone Nonfoods Foodstuffs Entertainment and sport Public catering Main competitors 10 min transport 283 77 95 80 70 15 min walking 101 28 38 30 28 10 min walking 57 20 24 16 18 Competitive analysis
    39. 39. Competitive analysis 1. Using map it is possible to see a large number of competitors in the zone of Chernaya rechka, Staraya derevnya and Pionerskaya. 2. High density of discounters and business centers is seen in the 5 min transport accessibility zone. 3. Shopping malls, cinemas and supermarkets are completely absent in the 5 min transport accessibility zone. 4. High density of nonfood stores is in the 10 min walking accessibility zone. And besides this density falls in the 15 min walking zone not least because of nonresidential body there. And it rises again approaching the 10 min transport zone. 5. In absolute terms, the distribution of all types of stores for all zones is approximately the same. Only nonfood stores stand out from the overall picture. Their number in the 10 min transport zone is 283 that is more than any other stores.
    40. 40. Competitive analysis 1. Accessibility zone of Komendantsky prospekt and Pionerskaya is on the first place by the saturation of the main competitors 2. It may be noted that Chernaya rechka zone possesses sufficiently large number of various bars and cafes but restaurants are completely absent 3. Large number of beauty salons is observed everywhere. Also territory is saturated by game machines.
    41. 41. Territories development • The analysis showed a higher density of non-residential bodies compared to residential in the all zones • A number of non-residential premises rises with distance from the center. Primarily it is connected with the fact that large areas of former factories (e.g. close to Pionerskaya station), park areas and garages are being captured. • The analysis shows the current dominance of residential areas over non-residential in the 5 min transport accessibility zone. • It is predicted that 5 min transport accessibility zone will develop very slow. Design and survey work is completely absent. It says that nothing new are going to be constructed in the nearest future. • The capital contribution will be directed to residential bodies which have good dynamics of development on a par with non-residential and compose building projects belonging to the trade and public and business. Industrial investments to the sport and entertainment hold extremely low positions.
    42. 42. Forecast of the flows next to object through 3 years Scenario Residential areas growth (%) Resident population growth (%) Pedestrian flows growth (%) Existing density of the pedestrian flows next to object (June 2006) Projected flows dencity next to the shopping mall in 5 min walking zone (pers./day) Optimistic 16,2 1,5 3,4 11 914 12 319 Realistic 15,6 1,44 3,1 8 681 8 950 Pessimistic 15 1,38 2,8 5 962 6 092
    43. 43. Shopping mall? Factors influencing the shopping mall opening: 1. Resident population density 2. Economically active population density 3. Density of resident population with above-average incomes 4. Density of existing buildings and buildings under construction 5. Density and proximity of the main competitors 6. Minor competitors density 7. Availability of stores and shopping malls areas to the population in a resource zone 8. Rental rates for tenants by the city and by the districts 9. Intensity of development of trade and entertainment objects on the territory in a resource zone 10. Intensity of development of residential and non-residential blocks 11. Infrastructure surrounding shopping center
    44. 44. Which types of stores the 10-minute resource zone lacks? Based on the analysis of availability of stores and services in the resource zone: • Billiards, bowling (1,3) • Cinema (0,9) • Fitness and health centers (5,6) • Restaurants (9,2) • Supermarkets (2,1) • Food stores (3,0) • Additionally: – Night clubs – Stationary – Furniture stores – Household appliances
    45. 45. Supermarket?
    46. 46. Business center? Factors influencing the business center development: – Development of social and business life in St. Petersburg. Development of demand on business centers. – Development of business zones in the city center and on the outskirts. Factor of business centers crowding in the city districts. – Offering new business centers of different areas and different classes in the residential districts (Vyborgsky, Primorsky, Moskovsky, etc.) – Rents for office space
    47. 47. Characteristics of the business center development • Northern districts have 114 business centers of different classes and areas in total • 19% of business centers in terms of units • 17% in the buildings areas The analysis shows the business activity at the moment and in a few years  40 business centers of С class  17 business centers of В class  11 business centers of В+ class  1 business center of А class  Approximate number of employees 43 thousand In the north In the 15 min transport zone
    48. 48. Strengths by particular objects Business center Shopping center / mall Supermarket Cinema 1. High social and economic activity in the southern part of Vyborgsky, Primorsky and Kalininsky district 2. Vyborsky district ranks 3rd (after Centralny and Moskovsky) by number of offered office space in business centers 3. High rents for office spaces in business centers in Primorsky district 4. Potential tenants are ready to abandon location “elitism” in the city center in favor of large comfortable offices with an area of 100-500 m² in a business center of В and В+ class 5. Highways convenient for traffic are nearby (Vyborgskaya naberezhnaya and repaired Bolshoy Sampsonievsky prospekt) 1. Highways convenient for traffic are nearby, heavy traffic in all directions on them. It is good for developing a shopping center of urban level 2. No shopping centers and shopping malls in the 10 min walking zone 3. According to the analysis of availability of stores and services there is a lack of entertainment facilities and services 4. Development of residential buildings is more intense than of nonresidential in the 10 and 15 min resource zone 1. Supermarkets are completely absent in the 15 min walking and 5 min transport zones. One hypermarket is within the 15 min zone. 2. Good prognosis of supermarket visiting based on the number of people living and walking in the trade zone of the latter. According to realistic scenario 3 814 and 3 133 respectively. Assuming the same level of income of residing people 3. A hypermarket should be opened on the place of Maksim cinema in terms of the traffic and the fact that this zone is a linkage between the center and the residential districts. 50 000 cars per day move along Lanskoye shosse and Torzhkovskaya ulitsa 4. Lack of “supermarket” type stores in the 15 min resource zone (0,9) and in the 10 min resource zone (2,1) 5. Development of residential buildings is more intense than of nonresidential in the 10 and 15 min resource zone 1. Only one cinema is in the 10 min transport zone. No cinemas in the 15 min walking zone
    49. 49. Business center Shopping center / mall Supermarket Cinema 1. Inconvenient access from Lanskoye shosse. Disadvantage is eliminated in case of making access from Torzhkovskaya ulitsa 1. Low rents for retail spaces in shopping centers and shopping malls in Primorsky and Vyborgsky districts 2. A small number of people with average and above average income 3. A small number of new homes built after the 90s, prevalence of “khrushchovkas” in the 10 min walking zone 4. Currently nonresidential areas prevail over residential in the 10 min transport zone and in the all walking zones 5. In absolute terms building of nonresidential areas exceeds building of residential areas 6. Inconvenient access from Lanskoye shosse. Disadvantage is eliminated in case of making access from Torzhkovskaya ulitsa 1. A small number of people with average and above average income 2. A small number of economically active population (16-60 y.o.) as compared with average city index 3. A small number of new homes built after the 90s, prevalence of “khrushchovkas” in the 10 min walking zone 4. Low increase of residential area as compared with nonresidential in the 5 min transport zone 5. Low increase of walking flows in 3 years 6. High concentration of lower class food stores 1. It is not recommended to open VIP halls in cinema because of people with low incomes living nearby Weaknesses by particular objects
    50. 50. Your best decision is our job!Your best decision is our job!
    51. 51. Thank you!Thank you! • MANAGING DIRECTOR • DENIS STRUKOV • HEAD OF INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL DEPARTMENT • MAYA EPSTEIN The Center for Spatial Research Saint-Petersburg, Fermskoe sh., b. 22, of. 200.1 E-mail: Strukov@geointellect.com, Contacts in Moscow: +7(495) 374-09-54, +7-916-812-46-00 Contact in St.Petersburg: +7-921-983-70-73, +7(812) 647-90-77

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