presentation on population and development

1. Population and Development
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Meaning of Demography
Demography is the “study of human populations in relation to the
changes brought by the interplay of Births, deaths and
migration”-PRESSAT
“Demography is the statistical description and analysis of human
population”-WRONG
Demography is the “statistical and mathematical study of the size,
composition and spate distribution of human populations, and of
the changes over time, in these aspects through the operation of
the five processes of fertility, mortality, marriage, migration and
social mobility”-BOGUE

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Scope of Demography
Demography is the branch of social size, structure, which
deals with the study of size, structure and distribution of
populations, along with the spatial and temporal changes in
them in response to birth, migration, ageing and death.
Demography is the science of population. In it’s most general
meaning, a population is a set of people who live in a specific
land area: a commune, a district, a country or a continent, etc.
A formal demography is concerned with the size, distribution,
structure and changes of population.

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Population Growth
It is the change in a population over time, and can be
quantified as the change in the number of Individuals
of any species in a population using “per unit time”
for measurement.
In demographics, population growth rate (PGR)is the
rate at which the number of Individuals in a
population increases in a given time period as a
fraction of the initial population.

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Factors affecting population
growth rates
Population growth depends on rates of birth,
death, Immigration and emigration.
(birth rate + immigration rate)
-(death rate + emigration rate)
= Population Growth Rate

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Components of Population Growth
The age and sex composition of a population affects its social
life in many ways. Changes in age com‐ position are due mainly
to changes in birthrates and are presently increasing the
proportion of aged and reducing the proportion of children in
many countries. Migration is affected by the push given to
people
by unsatisfactory conditions at home by the pull of attractive
opportunities elsewhere and by the channels or means through
which they are able to migrate.

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Sex Composition
The small family norm together with a desire for a male child has further distorted
a sex ratio against the girl-child. The sex ratio has steadily declined: From 972 (for every
1000 boys)
in 1901 to 927 in 1991. The latest census shows a slight overall improvement in the sex ratio to
933. Unfortunately, this is offset by a worsening of the sex ratio of children up to the age of
six.
The sex ratio for children up to the age of six has gone down from 962 girls per 1000 boys in
1981, to 945 in 1991, to 927 in 2001. The sharpest declines
in sex ratio for the child population are reported from Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana,
Gujarat, Uttaranchal, Maharashtra and Chandigarh, where abortions of female fetuses are
known to be widely practised.
Population Density: Defined as the number of per‐ sons per sq km the population density of
India in 2001 was 324 per sq km.West Bengal is still the most thickly populated state with a
population density of 903 in 2001.Bihar (880) is now the second highest densely populated
state pushing Kerala to the third place.

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Age Composition
The current age distribution of Indian population is little more than
31.7 per cent are under the age of 15 years (male 173,869,856; female
164,003,915); 63.5per cent are between 15 and 64(male
349,785,804; female 326,289,402), and 4.8 per cent are over the
age of 60(male 25,885,725; female 25,235,905).
The Indian Planning Commission's Technical Group on Population
Projections predicted in the National Population Policy (2000) that
India's population would be 1.012 billion in March 2001, going up to
1.179 billion and 1.264 billion in March 2011 and 2016 respectively.

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Morality
According to 2001 census Seventy-two out of every 1,000 babies born die before their
first birthday. Seven per cent (72/1,000) of newborn infants perish within a year of
birth, because of low birth weight, pre-maturity, malnutrition, diarrhea diseases, acute
respiratory infections and malnutrition.
Compare this to the IMRs in Sri Lanka (18/1,000) and China (41/1,000 Moreover, in
India, there are more female deaths (rural or urban areas) in the age group of 0-14 than
elsewhere.
Although the IMR has decreased from 146 per 1000 births in 1951 to 72 per 1000 births
(1997) and the sex differentials are narrowing, there are wide inter-state differences.
Measurements of mortality
" Crude Death Rate " Birth Rate " Infant Mortality Rate
Factors for the low death rate
" Healthcare services " Vaccinations and control of epidemics " Reduction in the
occurrence of famines and droughts.

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Impacts of Population Growth
Impacts of population growth
on physical environment
physical.
Impacts of population growth
on biological environment.
Physical environment means
non living environment or the
land, air, water, soil and
minerals.
Biological environment
comprises of human,
biological systems, flora and
fauna, living creatures from
north to midgets.

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Causes of Population Hike
Increases in food production and distribution.
Improvement in public health.
Advancements in medical technology.
High birth rate and low death rate.
Decline of infant mortality rate.
Lack of public awareness.
Literacy ignorance and superstitions.
Attitude towards male child.

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Impacts on Indian Economy
Increase in availability of labour.
Increased Innovation.
Technological advancement.
Improvement in trade structure.
Increase in per capita income.
Aggregates poverty.
Increase in unemployment.
Results in food crisis.
Increase in consumption and wastage.
Man to land ratio decreases.
Tremendous pressure on natural resources.
Excess migration to cities.
Increase in urban slums.

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Government Measures
Introduced various family planning programs.
Started govt funded agencies on promoting family
planning programs.
Creating awareness programs.
Emphasis on women employment and education.
Motivation through persuasion and incentive to adobt
small family norms.

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Suggestions
Women empowerment.
Establishment of compulsory learning institutions.
Freely inflate the money supply.
Popularize population control programs in pvt enterprises.
Adoption of ‘ A child per couple’ policy.
Educate people in rural areas.
Raising of age for marriage for males and females.
Making available of various methods of birth control.
Setting up of training centres and research centres.
Health facilities.

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The important sources of vital statistics in
India are:
1. Population Census
2. Civil Registration System
3. Demographic Sample Surveys such as those conducted by
the National Sample Surveys Organisation(NSSO).
4. Sample Registration System(SRS).
5. Health Surveys, such as National family health
Surveys(NFHS)
6. District level Household Surveys(DLHS-RCH) conducted
for accessing progress under the reproductive and child
health programme.

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1. Census
It is compiling, evaluating, analysing and
publishing demographic, economic and social
data pertaining, at a specific time, to all persons
in a country or in a well delimited part of a
country. In other words, the enumeration of the
entire population of a country or a region at a
particular time is known as census.

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2. Civil Registration System
According to the United Nations, civil registration is defined as the continuous permanent
and compulsory recording of the occurrence of vital events, like, live births, deaths, foetal
deaths, marriages, divorces as well as annulments, judicial separation, adoptions,
legitimations and recognitions. Civil registration is performed under a law, decree or
regulation so as to provide a legal basis to the records and certificates made from the
system, which has got several civil uses in the personal life of individual citizens. Moreover,
the information collected through the registration process provides very useful and
important vital statistics also on a continuous basis at the national level starting from the
smallest administrative unit. In fact, obtaining de tailed vital statistics on a regular basis is
one of the major functions of the Civil Registration System (CRS) in several countries of
the world. Vital records obtained under CRS have got administrative uses in designing and
implementing public health programmes and carrying out social, demographic and
historical research. For an individual, the birth registration records provide legal proof of
identity and civil status, age, nationality, dependency status etc., on which depend a wide
variety of rights.

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3. Sample Surveys
There are 3 systems which provide data on vital rates at the national
level. These are National sample survey. Sample registration system and
in recent years, National family Health Surveys. These surveys provide
diff kinds of data but all of them provide certain fertility and mortality
Indicators. In view of their importance in the demographic data system of
India at different points of time, these are discussed below. In 1950’s and
1960’s , the National Sample Survey attempted to provide reliable
estimates of birth and death rates through its regular rounds. However,
the release of 1961 census data indicated that the birth rates and death
rates and consequently, the growth rates were often not estimated
correctly. Many analysts, at that point of time, felt that the one time
retrospective recall surveys such as National Sample survey may not be
able to estimate the vital rates.

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4. Sample Registration System
The Government of India, in the late 1960s, initiated the Sample
Registration System that is based on a Dual Recording System. In the S
ample Registration System, there is a continuous enumeration of births
and deaths in a sample of villages/urban blocks by a resident part - time
enumerator and then, an independent six monthly retrospective survey
by a full time supervisor. The data obtained through these two sources
are matched. The unmatched and partially matched events are re -
verified in the field to get the correct number of events. At present, the
Sample Registration System (SRS) provides reliable annual data on
fertility and mortality at the state and national levels for rural and urban
areas separately. In this survey, the sample units, villages in rural areas
and urban blocks in urban areas are replaced once in ten years.

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5. Health Surveys
In the past about a decade or so, a few important sources for demographic
data have emerged. These are the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS)
and the District Level Household Surveys (DLHS) conducted for the
evaluation of reproductive and child Health programmes. Three rounds of
NFHS surveys have since been completed. These provide estimates inter -
alia of fertility, child mortality and a number of health parameters relating
to infants and children at state level. They also provide information on the
availability of health a nd family planning services to pregnant mothers and
other women in reproductive ages. The DLHS provide information at the
district level on a number of indicators relating to child health, reproductive
health problems and the quality of services available to them. Three rounds
of DLHS surveys have been conducted so far.

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National Family Health Surveys
India’s first National Family Health Survey 1(NFHS - 1) was conducted in
1992 – 93. The primary objective of survey was to provide national and
state level data on fertility, nuptiality , family size preferences,
knowledge and practice of family planning, the potential demand for
family planning services, the level of unwanted fertility , utilisation of
ante natal care services , breast feeding and food supplementation
practices , child nutrition and health immunisation and infant and child
mortality. Financial assistance for NFHS was provided by the United
States Agency for International Development (US AID).The Ministry of
Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW), Government of India,
subsequently designated the International Institute for Population
Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, as the nodal agency to conduct the survey.

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Reproductive and child health survey
under(DLHS-RCH)
Implemented by the govt of India to provide quality
services at the grass-root level and to estimate the
utilisation of these services by the community. In the
survey a shift was made from the method mix target
based activities to the client centred. Demand
driven quality services. This approach was adopted
in order to change the attitude of the service
providers at the grass root level and to increase the
outreach services.

27. Thomas Malthus
Born: February 14,1766, Surrey, UK
Died: December 29, 1834, Bath,UK
Wrote: ‘An essay in the first principal of
population’ first established in 1798.
Debatable whether the principles of
Malthus two hundred years ago(that were
very revolutionary and controversial) have
any relevance to the modern world.
The world population in 1798 was at nine
million people. We have now passed the 7
billion mark. KM

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The core principles of Malthus
Food is necessary for human existence.
Human population tends to grow faster than the
power in the earth to produce substance.
The effects of these two unequal powers must be
kept equal.
Since human tend not to limit their population size
voluntarily “preventive checks” in Malthus
terminology.

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Theory of population
Malthus very concerned by the condition of the
poor and particularly by aural poverty.
Because of this he was skeptical of notions of the
perfectibility of society.
1st Edition of the Essay is an a priori polemic- the
2nd Edition included much empirical observation.
Inspired Darwin’s idea of “the struggle for survival”.

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Malthus Theory
In 1798 Thomas Malthus published his views on
the effect of population on food supply. His
theory has two basic Principles:
Population grows at a geometric rate i.e. 1, 2,
4, 16, 32, etc.
Food production increases at an arithmetic
rate i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.

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Geometric and Arithmetic Ratios
Population, when unchecked, grows in a geometric ratio.
Population, if unchecked, will double every 25 years.
Evidence from the US where land is abundant.
Substance grows at an arithmetic ratio [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,
etc].
Subsistence still grows, but due to the diff growth ratios
population must eventually press against the means of
subsistence.

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Population grows
geometrically
Population exceeds
carrying capacity
Population is kept in
check-preventative and
positive checks

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Proposed solution of Malthus
Malthus suggested that once this ceiling has
been reached, further growth in population
would be prevented by negative and positive
checks. He saw the checks as a natural
method of population.

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Negative checks(decreased birth rates)
Negative checks were used to limit the
population growth. It included postponement
of marriage which lowered the Fertility rate.
Malthus favoured moral restraint as a check
on population growth. However, it is worth
noting that malts proposed this only for the
working and poor classes.

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Positive checks (increased death rates)
Positive checks were ways to reduce
population size by events such as famine,
disease, war- increasing the mortality rate and
reducing life expectancy.

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Criticism
The ratio of arithmetic progression of means of subsistence and the
geometrical progression of population growth was never proved.
In so many cases the theory of the growth of the means of
subsistence in arithmetic ratio was not proved.
Malthus did not Clearly distinguish between fecundity and fertility.
Malthus did not succeed in connecting positive and preventive checks
with his theory.
Friedrich engels also criticises the Malthusian catastrophe because
Malthus failed to see that surplus population is connected to surplus
wealth, surplus capital and surplus landed properly.

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Optimum population
Optimum Population is basically an economic concept.
It do notes balanced population resources in an area.
It has to be measured in terms of quality of life, it concerned
with the high quality of life.
Karl Winkellech(1810-1865) German professor is firstly
introduced the concept of population theory.
A country is said to have an optimum population when the
number of people is in balance with the available resources.

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BOALDING : Is defined as “the population at
which the standard of life is at maximum is
called the optimum population.
CAR SAUNDERS: “optimum population is
that population which produces maximum
social welfare”.
DALTON: “optimum population is that which
gives the maximum income per head”.

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According to Dr.cannan, there is direct
relationship between the size of population
and the existing resources of a country.
over population
under population
optimum size of population

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Over populated
if the during a period of time the per capita
income being to fall due to increase in population
the country is said to be over populated.
Under populated
if the number of people are less than the
resources of the country and they are unable to
make full use of these resources, the country is
said to be under populated.

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Optimum population
when the size of population is according to
the size of natural resources are fully utilised.
In this case the per capita output will be
maximum and the country is said to have an
idea size of population.
The term allow the highest standard of living.
The concept is concerned with the high
quality of life.

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OPTIMUM POPULATION

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CRITERIA FOR ASSESSING OPTIMUM POPULATION
• PER CAPITA IN COME
• FULL EMPLOYMENT
• LIFE EXPECTANCY
• DEPENDENCY RATIO
• AVILABILITY OF PURE WATER AND AIR
• HIGHEST AVERAGE STANDARD OF LIVING
• PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF FOOD AND ENERGY
• PRODUCTION OF EXPENDITURE ON FOOD
• BALANCED POPULATION RESOURCE RATIO
• BALANCED DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE

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ESTIMATION
• Decent wealth and resource to every
one.
• Basic human rights to every one.
• Preservation of cultural diversity.
• Preservation of bio diversity.

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Theory of Veyret Verner
He said that optimum population is the one of
the enjoy full employment satisfactory level of
life.
Daily per capita in take over 2500 calories of
food.
Per capita expenditure on food not exceeding
50% of total income.

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CRITICISM OF THORY
• No practical value
• Not an index of economic development
• Quality of people ignored
• Other factors ignored( social, political and
historical

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Demographic transition theory
Refers to the transition from high birth and
death rates to low birth and death rates as a
country develops from a pre-industrial to an
industrialised economic system.
It suggests all countries go through 4-5 stages
of development.

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Stage one: pre-industrial Society
• In stage one, pre-industrial society, death
rates and birth rates are high and roughly in
balance.
• Population growth is typically very slow.
• Young population with short life span.
• Every present day country has gone past
this stage.

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Stage two: Developing Country
• Rapid drop in death rate while birth rate remains
high.
• Large increase in population
• Decrease in infant morality and increased life
spans
• Improvements in food supply and public health
and agriculture
• Yemen, Afghanistan , Bhutan and much of sub-
saharan countries.

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Stage three: Post-Industrial
• Fall in birth rates, start to balance the lowering death
rates.
• Birth rates fall due to access to contraception,
increases in wages, urbanisation etc.
• Lower infant Mortality Rate hence smaller families.
• Demographic dividend; increases in the ratio of working
age of dependent population.
• India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia,
Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and UAE.

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• Both low birth and death rates.
• Population growth stabilised; population may start
shrinking.
• Low death rate: lower rate of diseases and higher
production of food.
• Low birth rate: More independence for women and
work opportunities.
• United States, Canada, Argentina, Australia, New
Zealand, most of Europe etc.
Stage four: Stabilisation Period

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Stage Five
• There are few countries like Germany, Italy and
Japan in which the death rate is higher than
birth rate resulting in the decrease of
population.
• Due to this, additional stages have been
proposed depending on the fertility rate in the
country.

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Properties
Decent wealth and resources to everyone.
Basic human rights to everyone
Preservation of cultural diversity
Preservation of biodiversity
Allowance of intellectual, artistic and
technological creativity.

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Pace was slow up to 1921.
Accelerated after 1951, with decadal increase
rising 20 percent.
Some slowing down of the pace was noticed after
the 2001 census with the decadal growth still over
20%.
India’s trajectory of growth has turned downward
through the population trapectory continues to
be upward.

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