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Collecting
Information and
Forecasting Demand
CHAPTER 3
Example: Campbell Soup
 Suffered from double whammy effect
 Consumption 
 Market Share 
 Anthropological research (Studied human behavior)
 Face-to-face interaction, Live-alongs, Eat-alongs
 The key insight? Millennials loved spices and ate more exotic food than
their parents—they just couldn’t cook it at home
 Solution: Campbell’s Go! Soup ready-to-eat ~ a new product line with 6
flavors
Marketing Information Systems (MIS)
 One of Marketers’ responsibilities: identifying major marketplace changes
 One of Marketers’ powers: information on consumption patterns
 MIS relies on:
 Internal company records
 Marketing intelligence activities
 Marketing research
A marketing information system (MIS) consists of people, equipment, and
procedures to gather, sort, analyze, evaluate, and distribute needed, timely, and
accurate information to marketing decision makers
Internal Company Records
(Results Data)
 The Order-to -Payment Cycle
 Customer  Firm (Sales Department)   Other departments
 Sales Information Systems
 Timely and accurate reports on current sales
 Web cookies  Targeted marketing
 Yellow Mustang instead of Red Mustang ~ Careful interpretation needed
 Databases, Data Warehousing, and Data Mining
 Marketing Insight ~ Digging into Big Data (4Vs)
Marketing Intelligence
(Happenings Data)
 The Marketing Intelligence System
 8 actions to improve Marketing Intelligence:
 Train and motivate the sales force to spot and report new developments
 Motivate distributors, retailers, and other intermediaries to pass along important
intelligence
 Hire external experts to collect intelligence (Mystery shoppers)
 Network internally and externally (w.r.t competitors)
 Set up a customer advisory panel
 Take advantage of government-related data resources (Statistical Bureau)
 Purchase information from outside research firms and vendors
Marketing Intelligence
(Happenings Data)
 8th step: Collecting Marketing Intelligence on the Internet
 Independent customer goods and service review forums
 Eat Sleep Repeat, ConsumerReview.com
 Distributor or sales agent feedback sites
 Amazon.com
 Combo sites offering customer reviews and expert opinions
 Customer complaint sites
 Public blogs
Coordination
Analyzing the Macro-environment
 Needs and trends
 Fad, Trend, and Megatrend
 6 major forces in the environment:
 The demographic environment
 The economic environment
 The sociocultural environment
 The natural environment
 The technological environment
 The political-legal environment
The Demographic Environment
 Population, Gender, Education, Income
 Population age mix (Mexico  Young population, Italy  Oldest)
 Ethnicity (Japan vs. USA)
 Educational groups
 Household patterns
The Economic Environment
 Consumer psychology
 4 types of industrial structures
 Subsistence economies ~ with few opportunities for marketers
 Raw-material-exporting Economies ~ with good markets for equipment, tools,
supplies, and luxury goods for the rich
 Industrializing economies ~ where a new rich class and a growing middle class
demand new types of goods
 Industrial economies ~ with rich markets for all sorts of goods
The Economic Environment
 Income distribution patterns
 very low incomes
 mostly low incomes
 very low, very high incomes
 low, medium, high incomes
 mostly medium incomes Lamborghini
targets pattern#3
The Social-cultural Environment
 World-views regarding relationships
 Views of ourselves
 Views of others
 Views of organizations
 Views of society
 Views of nature
 Views of the universe
 Core Cultural Values
 Core beliefs
 Secondary beliefs
 Sub-cultures
The Natural Environment
 Corporate environmentalism (integrate environmental issues)
 Raw materials consist of:
 Infinite resources
 Finite renewable resources
 Finite non-renewable resources
The Technological Environment
 Failure to adapt
 Accelerating Pace of Change
 Unlimited Opportunities for Innovation
 Varying R&D Budgets
 Increased Regulation of Technological Change
The Political-Legal Environment
 Increased business legislation
 Growth of special interest groups
 Consumerist movement (privacy issues)
Laws, Govt. Agencies,
and Pressure groups

Organizations and
individuals
Forecasting and demand measurement
 Forecasting
 Size, growth, and potential of an opportunity
 The measures of market demand
 The potential market
 The available market
 The target market
 The penetrated market
If sales are low, the
company can adjust the
market demand
Vocabulary for Demand Measurement
Market
 Market demand
 Market minimum
 Marketing sensitivity of demand
 Market penetration index
 Share penetration index
 Market forecast
 Market potential
 Product penetration percentage
Company
 Company demand
 Company sales forecast
 Sales quota
 Sales budget
 Company sales potential
Estimating Current Demand
 Total Market Potential
 How to calculate no. of buyers?
 Step-1: Total population
 Step-2: Eliminate non-buyers (low income and education)
 Remaining are considered potential
TMP = No. of buyers  Avg. quantity purchased  Avg. Price
Estimating Current Demand
 TMP: Chain ratio method
Estimating Current Demand
 Area Market Potential
 Market build-up method ~ identify potential buyers and their purchases
 Multiple-factor index model ~ population, income, education
 Industry Sales and Market Shares
 Actual industry sales in the whole market
 Competitors identification
 Competitors’ sales estimation ~ Share of wallet
Estimating Future Demand
 Macroeconomic forecast
 Inflation
 Unemployment
 Interest rates
 Imports and exports
 Industry forecast ~ based on GDP
 Company sales forecast ~ based on market share of wallet
 Forecasting is based on:
 What people say, what people do, what people have done
Estimating Future Demand
 What people say?
 Surveys ~ purchase probability scale, likert scale
 Sales force opinions
 Expert opinions
 What people do and have done?
 Market-test method
 Past-sales analysis

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Marketing Management _ Chapter 3.pptx

  • 2. Example: Campbell Soup  Suffered from double whammy effect  Consumption   Market Share   Anthropological research (Studied human behavior)  Face-to-face interaction, Live-alongs, Eat-alongs  The key insight? Millennials loved spices and ate more exotic food than their parents—they just couldn’t cook it at home  Solution: Campbell’s Go! Soup ready-to-eat ~ a new product line with 6 flavors
  • 3. Marketing Information Systems (MIS)  One of Marketers’ responsibilities: identifying major marketplace changes  One of Marketers’ powers: information on consumption patterns  MIS relies on:  Internal company records  Marketing intelligence activities  Marketing research A marketing information system (MIS) consists of people, equipment, and procedures to gather, sort, analyze, evaluate, and distribute needed, timely, and accurate information to marketing decision makers
  • 4. Internal Company Records (Results Data)  The Order-to -Payment Cycle  Customer  Firm (Sales Department)   Other departments  Sales Information Systems  Timely and accurate reports on current sales  Web cookies  Targeted marketing  Yellow Mustang instead of Red Mustang ~ Careful interpretation needed  Databases, Data Warehousing, and Data Mining  Marketing Insight ~ Digging into Big Data (4Vs)
  • 5. Marketing Intelligence (Happenings Data)  The Marketing Intelligence System  8 actions to improve Marketing Intelligence:  Train and motivate the sales force to spot and report new developments  Motivate distributors, retailers, and other intermediaries to pass along important intelligence  Hire external experts to collect intelligence (Mystery shoppers)  Network internally and externally (w.r.t competitors)  Set up a customer advisory panel  Take advantage of government-related data resources (Statistical Bureau)  Purchase information from outside research firms and vendors
  • 6. Marketing Intelligence (Happenings Data)  8th step: Collecting Marketing Intelligence on the Internet  Independent customer goods and service review forums  Eat Sleep Repeat, ConsumerReview.com  Distributor or sales agent feedback sites  Amazon.com  Combo sites offering customer reviews and expert opinions  Customer complaint sites  Public blogs Coordination
  • 7. Analyzing the Macro-environment  Needs and trends  Fad, Trend, and Megatrend  6 major forces in the environment:  The demographic environment  The economic environment  The sociocultural environment  The natural environment  The technological environment  The political-legal environment
  • 8. The Demographic Environment  Population, Gender, Education, Income  Population age mix (Mexico  Young population, Italy  Oldest)  Ethnicity (Japan vs. USA)  Educational groups  Household patterns
  • 9. The Economic Environment  Consumer psychology  4 types of industrial structures  Subsistence economies ~ with few opportunities for marketers  Raw-material-exporting Economies ~ with good markets for equipment, tools, supplies, and luxury goods for the rich  Industrializing economies ~ where a new rich class and a growing middle class demand new types of goods  Industrial economies ~ with rich markets for all sorts of goods
  • 10. The Economic Environment  Income distribution patterns  very low incomes  mostly low incomes  very low, very high incomes  low, medium, high incomes  mostly medium incomes Lamborghini targets pattern#3
  • 11. The Social-cultural Environment  World-views regarding relationships  Views of ourselves  Views of others  Views of organizations  Views of society  Views of nature  Views of the universe  Core Cultural Values  Core beliefs  Secondary beliefs  Sub-cultures
  • 12. The Natural Environment  Corporate environmentalism (integrate environmental issues)  Raw materials consist of:  Infinite resources  Finite renewable resources  Finite non-renewable resources
  • 13. The Technological Environment  Failure to adapt  Accelerating Pace of Change  Unlimited Opportunities for Innovation  Varying R&D Budgets  Increased Regulation of Technological Change
  • 14. The Political-Legal Environment  Increased business legislation  Growth of special interest groups  Consumerist movement (privacy issues) Laws, Govt. Agencies, and Pressure groups  Organizations and individuals
  • 15. Forecasting and demand measurement  Forecasting  Size, growth, and potential of an opportunity  The measures of market demand  The potential market  The available market  The target market  The penetrated market If sales are low, the company can adjust the market demand
  • 16.
  • 17. Vocabulary for Demand Measurement Market  Market demand  Market minimum  Marketing sensitivity of demand  Market penetration index  Share penetration index  Market forecast  Market potential  Product penetration percentage Company  Company demand  Company sales forecast  Sales quota  Sales budget  Company sales potential
  • 18.
  • 19. Estimating Current Demand  Total Market Potential  How to calculate no. of buyers?  Step-1: Total population  Step-2: Eliminate non-buyers (low income and education)  Remaining are considered potential TMP = No. of buyers  Avg. quantity purchased  Avg. Price
  • 20. Estimating Current Demand  TMP: Chain ratio method
  • 21. Estimating Current Demand  Area Market Potential  Market build-up method ~ identify potential buyers and their purchases  Multiple-factor index model ~ population, income, education  Industry Sales and Market Shares  Actual industry sales in the whole market  Competitors identification  Competitors’ sales estimation ~ Share of wallet
  • 22. Estimating Future Demand  Macroeconomic forecast  Inflation  Unemployment  Interest rates  Imports and exports  Industry forecast ~ based on GDP  Company sales forecast ~ based on market share of wallet  Forecasting is based on:  What people say, what people do, what people have done
  • 23. Estimating Future Demand  What people say?  Surveys ~ purchase probability scale, likert scale  Sales force opinions  Expert opinions  What people do and have done?  Market-test method  Past-sales analysis