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3
Collecting Information
and
Forecasting Demand
1
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-2
Chapter Questions
 What are the components of a modern
marketing information system?
 What are useful internal records?
 What makes up a marketing intelligence
system?
 What are some influential macro
environment developments?
 How can companies accurately measure
and forecast demand?
Why? Firms are adjusting the way they do
business. And for many reasons! Virtually every
industry has been touched by dramatic shifts in
the technological, demographic, socio-cultural,
natural, and political-legal environments.
 In this chapter, we consider how firms can
develop processes to identify and track
important microenvironment trends.
 This chapter will also address how to assess
sales forecasts.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-3
What is a
Marketing Information System?
 A marketing information system
consists of people, equipment, and
procedures to gather, sort, analyze,
evaluate, and distribute needed,
timely, and accurate information to
marketing decision makers.
 It relies on internal company
records, marketing intelligence
activities, and marketing research.
Who collects the marketing
Information?
 The major responsibility for identifying significant
marketplace changes falls to the company’s
marketers.
 Marketers have two advantages for the task:
disciplined methods for collecting information, and
time spent interacting with customers and
observing competitors.
 Some firms have marketing information systems
that provide rich detail about buyer wants,
preferences, and behavior.
 Every firm must organize and distribute a
continuous flow of information to its marketing
managers.
Internal Records and
Marketing Intelligence
To spot important opportunities and potential problems,
marketing managers rely on internal reports of orders,
sales, prices, costs, inventory levels, receivables, and
payables
 Order-to-payment cycle (The heart of the internal
records system) .Sales representatives, dealers, and
customers send orders to the firm. The sales
department prepares invoices, transmits copies to
various departments, and back-orders out-of-stock
items. Shipped items generate shipping and billing
documents that go to various departments.
 Sales information system (Marketing managers
need timely and accurate reports on current sales)
Databases, warehousing, data mining-
 Companies organize their information into
customer, product, and salesperson
databases and combine their data.
 The customer database will contain every
customer’s name, address, past transactions,
and sometimes even demographics and
psychographics (activities, interests, and
opinions)
 Companies make these data easily accessible
to their decision makers. Analysts can “mine”
the data and store fresh insights into neglected
customer segments, recent customer trends,
and other useful information.
What is a
Marketing Intelligence System?
A Market Intelligence system focuses on the
systematic collection and processing of
information from all the relevant sources to
discover the changing trends in the marketing
environment.
In simple words, the marketer gathers data from
all the available sources and process these into
meaningful information that can be used to make
critical business decisions and enhance the
efficiency of business operations.
The internal records system supplies results data,
but the marketing intelligence system supplies
happenings data.
How do Managers collect data?
Marketing managers collect marketing
intelligence in a variety of different ways,
such as
 by reading books, newspapers, and
trade publications;
 talking to customers, suppliers, and
distributors
 monitoring social media on the Internet
 meeting with other company managers.
Steps to Quality Marketing
Intelligence
Steps to Quality Marketing Intelligence
A company can take 7 possible actions to
improve the quantity and quality of its marketing
intelligence.
 Training and motivation programs for sales force
to scan for new developments
 Motivate channel members (Distributors and
retailers) to share intelligence as they are often
closer to customer and competition and can offer
helpful insights.- “Mystery guests”
 Hire external experts to collect intelligence
Steps to Quality Marketing
Intelligence…. continued
 Network externally (purchase competitor’s
product, attend trade shows, read competitor’s
published reports, attend stockholder’s meeting,
talk to employees)
 Utilize a customer advisory panel
(recommendations and feedback to the new
customers)
 Utilize government data sources
 Purchase information
Sources of Competitive Information
Various outlets available on the Internet, can
distribute one customer’s experiences or evaluation
to other potential buyers and, marketers seeking
information about the consumers and the
competition.
 Independent customer goods and service review
forums, discussion forums.
 Distributor or sales agent feedback sites
 Combination sites offering customer reviews and
expert opinions
 Customer complaint sites
 Chat rooms and Public blogs
Analyzing the Macro Environment
 Successful companies recognize and respond
profitably the unmet needs and trends.
 Enterprising individuals and companies
manage to create new solutions to unmet
needs.
 Example: Dockers.
 Let’s distinguish among fads, trends and
megatrends.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-14
Needs and Trends
Fad: A fad is “unpredictable, short-lived, and without
social, economic, and political significance.” A
company can cash in on a but getting it right
requires luck and good timing.
Trend: A direction or sequence of events with
momentum and durability, a trend is more predictable
and durable than a fad; trends reveal the shape of the
future and can provide strategic direction.
Megatrend: A megatrend is a “large social, economic,
political, and technological change [that] is slow to
form, and once in place, influences us for some time—
between seven and ten years, or longer.
Major Forces in the Environment:
Firms must monitor six major forces in the broad
environment. We’ll describe them separately as
their interactions will lead to new opportunities and
threats.
Population &
Demographic
Economic
Socio-cultural
Natural
Technological
Political-legal
Population and Demographics
Demographic developments often move at
a fairly predictable pace.
 Population size and growth rate in cities,
regions and nations.
 Population age mix
 Ethnic markets
 Educational levels
 Household patterns
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-17
Economic Environment:
The available purchasing power in an economy
depends on
As the recent economic downturn demonstrated,
trends affecting purchasing power can have a
strong impact on business, especially for
companies whose products are geared to high-
income and price-sensitive consumers.
Consumer Psychology
Income Distribution
Income, Savings, Debt, Credit
Economic Environment and
Consumer Psychology
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-19
Income Distribution
There are four types of industrial structures.
 Subsistence economies-supporting oneself at a
minimum level (fewer opportunities for marketers)
 Raw-material-exporting economies (Congo for
(Copper) and Saudi Arabia (oil)-with good
markets for equipment, tools, supplies and luxury
goods for the rich
 Industrializing economies (India, Egypt and
Philippines-where a new rich class and a growing
middle class demand new types of goods.
 Industrial economies- Western Europe- rich
markets for all sort of goods.
Income-Distribution Patterns
Marketers often distinguish countries using five
income-distribution patterns:
(1) very low incomes
(2) mostly low incomes
(3) very low, very high incomes
(4) low, medium, high incomes
(5) mostly medium incomes.
Ex: Lamborghini ‘s ($150,000) one of the largest
markets is Portugal (income level pattern 3)-one
of the poorer countries of EU but with enough
families to afford expensive cars
Social-Cultural Environment
From our sociocultural environment we absorb,
almost unconsciously, a world view that defines our
relationships to:
 Views of ourselves -pleasure seekers (fun,
change and escape) and self-realisers (more
conservative approach and ambitious)
 Views of others- (growing market of health clubs,
cruises and religious activities)
 Views of organizations- (good corporate citizens
and their consumer messages should be honest)
 Views of society- people defend society
(preservers), some run it (makers), some take
what they can take from the society (takers) ,
some want to change it (changers), some are
looking for something deeper (seekers) and
some want to leave it (escapers).
Consumption patterns often reflect these
social attitudes:
 Makers are high achievers who eat, dress and
live well.
 Changers usually live more frugally, drive
smaller cars and wear simple clothes.
Escapers and seekers are a major market for
movies music and camping.
 Views of nature- business has responded to
increased awareness of nature’s weakness-
producing wider varieties of camping, boating
and fishing gear.
 Views of the universe-mysticism and the occult
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-24
Socio-Cultural Influences
 Core beliefs and values are passed from parents
to children and reinforced by social institutions—
schools, churches, businesses, and governments.
 Secondary beliefs and values are more open to
change. Believing in the institution of marriage is
a core belief; believing people should marry early
is a secondary belief.
 Marketers have some chance of changing
secondary values, but little chance of changing
core values.
Socio-Cultural Influences..
Continued
 Each society contains subcultures, groups with
shared values, beliefs, preferences, and
behaviors emerging from their special life
experiences or circumstances.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-26
Natural Environment
Corporate environmentalism recognizes the need
to integrate environmental issues into the firm’s
strategic plans.
Trends in the natural environment for marketers to
be aware of include the following
 Shortage of raw materials
 Increased energy costs
 Anti-pollution pressures
 Changing role of Governments.
Technological Environment
Marketers must monitor technological trends which
include:
 Accelerating pace of change
 Opportunities for innovation
 Varying R&D budgets
 Increased regulation of change
More ideas than constantly are in the works, and
the time between idea and implementation is
shrinking. (exciting works have been seen in telecom,
robotics, computers and designer materials)
The Political-Legal Environment
The political and legal environment consists of law,
govt. agencies and pressure groups that influence
various organizations and individuals.
Sometimes these laws create new business
opportunities.
Mandatory recycling laws have boosted the
recycling industry and launched dozens of new
companies making new products from recycled
materials.
Two major trends are the increase in :
Business Legislation: it includes consumer
protection, environmental laws, competition
policy ,health and safety
Growth of Special Interest Groups or
Pressure groups or lobbies
Forecasting and
Demand Measurement: How can
we measure the market demand?
Figure 3.2 illustrates that companies can prepare as many as 90
different types of demand estimates for six different product
levels, five space levels, and three time periods.
Each demand measure serves a specific purpose. A company
might forecast short-run demand to order raw materials, plan
production, and borrow cash. It might forecast regional demand
to decide whether to set up regional distribution.
Forecasting and
Demand Measurement
There are many productive ways to breakdown the
market:
 Potential market- set of consumers with a
sufficient level of interest in a market offer
 Available market-set of consumers who have
interest, income, and access to a particular offer.
 Target market-the part of the qualified available
market the company decides to pursue.
 Penetrated market- the set of consumers who
are buying the company’s product.
Major Concepts in Demand
Measurement
 Market Demand: Market demand for a product is
the total volume that would be bought by a defined
customer group in a defined geographical area in a
defined time period in a defined marketing
environment under a defined marketing program.
 Market Forecast: It shows expected market
demand, not maximum market demand based on
only one level of industry marketing expenditure.
 Market Potential: Market potential is the limit
approached by market demand as industry
marketing expenditures approach infinity for a given
marketing environment.(recession or prosperity)
Market Demand Functions
 Market demand is not a fixed number, but rather a
function of the stated conditions. For this reason, we
call it the market demand function. Its dependence on
underlying conditions is illustrated in Figure 3.3(a).
 The horizontal axis shows different possible levels of
industry marketing expenditure in a given time period.
The vertical axis shows the resulting demand level. The
curve represents the estimated market demand
associated with varying levels of marketing expenditure.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-34
Major Concepts in Demand Measurement:
Company Demand: Company’s estimated share of market
demand at alternative levels of company marketing effort in a
given time period. It depends on how the company products,
services, prices and communication are perceived relative to the
competitors.
Company Sales Forecast: once the company has estimated
the market demand, their next task is to the level of marketing
effort. Expected level of company sales based on a chosen
marketing plan and an assumed marketing environment.
 A sales quota is the sales goal set for a product line, company
division, or sales representative..
Company Sales Potential: Company sales potential is the
sales limit approached by company demand as company
marketing effort increases relative to that of competitors.
Estimating Current Demand:
Total Market Potential
 Calculations
 Potential number of buyers x Avg. Quantity each
buyer purchases X price
 Chain-ratio method: multiply base number by
several adjusting percentages.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-36
Estimating Current Demand:
Area Market Potential: Companies must
allocate their marketing budget optimally among
their best territories, they need to measure the
market potential for different cities, states and
nations
Multiple-Factor Index
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-37
Estimating Future Demand
 Survey of Buyers’ Intentions
 Composite of Sales Force Opinions
 Expert Opinion
 Past-Sales Analysis
 Market-Test Method
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-38
For Review
 What are the components of a modern
marketing information system?
 What are useful internal records?
 What makes up a marketing intelligence
system?
 What are some influential macroenvironment
developments?
 How can companies accurately measure and
forecast demand?
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-39

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  • 2. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-2 Chapter Questions  What are the components of a modern marketing information system?  What are useful internal records?  What makes up a marketing intelligence system?  What are some influential macro environment developments?  How can companies accurately measure and forecast demand?
  • 3. Why? Firms are adjusting the way they do business. And for many reasons! Virtually every industry has been touched by dramatic shifts in the technological, demographic, socio-cultural, natural, and political-legal environments.  In this chapter, we consider how firms can develop processes to identify and track important microenvironment trends.  This chapter will also address how to assess sales forecasts. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-3
  • 4. What is a Marketing Information System?  A marketing information system consists of people, equipment, and procedures to gather, sort, analyze, evaluate, and distribute needed, timely, and accurate information to marketing decision makers.  It relies on internal company records, marketing intelligence activities, and marketing research.
  • 5. Who collects the marketing Information?  The major responsibility for identifying significant marketplace changes falls to the company’s marketers.  Marketers have two advantages for the task: disciplined methods for collecting information, and time spent interacting with customers and observing competitors.  Some firms have marketing information systems that provide rich detail about buyer wants, preferences, and behavior.  Every firm must organize and distribute a continuous flow of information to its marketing managers.
  • 6. Internal Records and Marketing Intelligence To spot important opportunities and potential problems, marketing managers rely on internal reports of orders, sales, prices, costs, inventory levels, receivables, and payables  Order-to-payment cycle (The heart of the internal records system) .Sales representatives, dealers, and customers send orders to the firm. The sales department prepares invoices, transmits copies to various departments, and back-orders out-of-stock items. Shipped items generate shipping and billing documents that go to various departments.  Sales information system (Marketing managers need timely and accurate reports on current sales)
  • 7. Databases, warehousing, data mining-  Companies organize their information into customer, product, and salesperson databases and combine their data.  The customer database will contain every customer’s name, address, past transactions, and sometimes even demographics and psychographics (activities, interests, and opinions)  Companies make these data easily accessible to their decision makers. Analysts can “mine” the data and store fresh insights into neglected customer segments, recent customer trends, and other useful information.
  • 8. What is a Marketing Intelligence System? A Market Intelligence system focuses on the systematic collection and processing of information from all the relevant sources to discover the changing trends in the marketing environment. In simple words, the marketer gathers data from all the available sources and process these into meaningful information that can be used to make critical business decisions and enhance the efficiency of business operations. The internal records system supplies results data, but the marketing intelligence system supplies happenings data.
  • 9. How do Managers collect data? Marketing managers collect marketing intelligence in a variety of different ways, such as  by reading books, newspapers, and trade publications;  talking to customers, suppliers, and distributors  monitoring social media on the Internet  meeting with other company managers.
  • 10. Steps to Quality Marketing Intelligence
  • 11. Steps to Quality Marketing Intelligence A company can take 7 possible actions to improve the quantity and quality of its marketing intelligence.  Training and motivation programs for sales force to scan for new developments  Motivate channel members (Distributors and retailers) to share intelligence as they are often closer to customer and competition and can offer helpful insights.- “Mystery guests”  Hire external experts to collect intelligence
  • 12. Steps to Quality Marketing Intelligence…. continued  Network externally (purchase competitor’s product, attend trade shows, read competitor’s published reports, attend stockholder’s meeting, talk to employees)  Utilize a customer advisory panel (recommendations and feedback to the new customers)  Utilize government data sources  Purchase information
  • 13. Sources of Competitive Information Various outlets available on the Internet, can distribute one customer’s experiences or evaluation to other potential buyers and, marketers seeking information about the consumers and the competition.  Independent customer goods and service review forums, discussion forums.  Distributor or sales agent feedback sites  Combination sites offering customer reviews and expert opinions  Customer complaint sites  Chat rooms and Public blogs
  • 14. Analyzing the Macro Environment  Successful companies recognize and respond profitably the unmet needs and trends.  Enterprising individuals and companies manage to create new solutions to unmet needs.  Example: Dockers.  Let’s distinguish among fads, trends and megatrends. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-14
  • 15. Needs and Trends Fad: A fad is “unpredictable, short-lived, and without social, economic, and political significance.” A company can cash in on a but getting it right requires luck and good timing. Trend: A direction or sequence of events with momentum and durability, a trend is more predictable and durable than a fad; trends reveal the shape of the future and can provide strategic direction. Megatrend: A megatrend is a “large social, economic, political, and technological change [that] is slow to form, and once in place, influences us for some time— between seven and ten years, or longer.
  • 16. Major Forces in the Environment: Firms must monitor six major forces in the broad environment. We’ll describe them separately as their interactions will lead to new opportunities and threats. Population & Demographic Economic Socio-cultural Natural Technological Political-legal
  • 17. Population and Demographics Demographic developments often move at a fairly predictable pace.  Population size and growth rate in cities, regions and nations.  Population age mix  Ethnic markets  Educational levels  Household patterns Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-17
  • 18. Economic Environment: The available purchasing power in an economy depends on As the recent economic downturn demonstrated, trends affecting purchasing power can have a strong impact on business, especially for companies whose products are geared to high- income and price-sensitive consumers. Consumer Psychology Income Distribution Income, Savings, Debt, Credit
  • 19. Economic Environment and Consumer Psychology Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-19
  • 20. Income Distribution There are four types of industrial structures.  Subsistence economies-supporting oneself at a minimum level (fewer opportunities for marketers)  Raw-material-exporting economies (Congo for (Copper) and Saudi Arabia (oil)-with good markets for equipment, tools, supplies and luxury goods for the rich  Industrializing economies (India, Egypt and Philippines-where a new rich class and a growing middle class demand new types of goods.  Industrial economies- Western Europe- rich markets for all sort of goods.
  • 21. Income-Distribution Patterns Marketers often distinguish countries using five income-distribution patterns: (1) very low incomes (2) mostly low incomes (3) very low, very high incomes (4) low, medium, high incomes (5) mostly medium incomes. Ex: Lamborghini ‘s ($150,000) one of the largest markets is Portugal (income level pattern 3)-one of the poorer countries of EU but with enough families to afford expensive cars
  • 22. Social-Cultural Environment From our sociocultural environment we absorb, almost unconsciously, a world view that defines our relationships to:  Views of ourselves -pleasure seekers (fun, change and escape) and self-realisers (more conservative approach and ambitious)  Views of others- (growing market of health clubs, cruises and religious activities)  Views of organizations- (good corporate citizens and their consumer messages should be honest)
  • 23.  Views of society- people defend society (preservers), some run it (makers), some take what they can take from the society (takers) , some want to change it (changers), some are looking for something deeper (seekers) and some want to leave it (escapers). Consumption patterns often reflect these social attitudes:  Makers are high achievers who eat, dress and live well.  Changers usually live more frugally, drive smaller cars and wear simple clothes. Escapers and seekers are a major market for movies music and camping.
  • 24.  Views of nature- business has responded to increased awareness of nature’s weakness- producing wider varieties of camping, boating and fishing gear.  Views of the universe-mysticism and the occult Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-24
  • 25. Socio-Cultural Influences  Core beliefs and values are passed from parents to children and reinforced by social institutions— schools, churches, businesses, and governments.  Secondary beliefs and values are more open to change. Believing in the institution of marriage is a core belief; believing people should marry early is a secondary belief.  Marketers have some chance of changing secondary values, but little chance of changing core values.
  • 26. Socio-Cultural Influences.. Continued  Each society contains subcultures, groups with shared values, beliefs, preferences, and behaviors emerging from their special life experiences or circumstances. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-26
  • 27. Natural Environment Corporate environmentalism recognizes the need to integrate environmental issues into the firm’s strategic plans. Trends in the natural environment for marketers to be aware of include the following  Shortage of raw materials  Increased energy costs  Anti-pollution pressures  Changing role of Governments.
  • 28. Technological Environment Marketers must monitor technological trends which include:  Accelerating pace of change  Opportunities for innovation  Varying R&D budgets  Increased regulation of change More ideas than constantly are in the works, and the time between idea and implementation is shrinking. (exciting works have been seen in telecom, robotics, computers and designer materials)
  • 29. The Political-Legal Environment The political and legal environment consists of law, govt. agencies and pressure groups that influence various organizations and individuals. Sometimes these laws create new business opportunities. Mandatory recycling laws have boosted the recycling industry and launched dozens of new companies making new products from recycled materials. Two major trends are the increase in : Business Legislation: it includes consumer protection, environmental laws, competition policy ,health and safety Growth of Special Interest Groups or Pressure groups or lobbies
  • 30.
  • 31. Forecasting and Demand Measurement: How can we measure the market demand? Figure 3.2 illustrates that companies can prepare as many as 90 different types of demand estimates for six different product levels, five space levels, and three time periods. Each demand measure serves a specific purpose. A company might forecast short-run demand to order raw materials, plan production, and borrow cash. It might forecast regional demand to decide whether to set up regional distribution.
  • 32. Forecasting and Demand Measurement There are many productive ways to breakdown the market:  Potential market- set of consumers with a sufficient level of interest in a market offer  Available market-set of consumers who have interest, income, and access to a particular offer.  Target market-the part of the qualified available market the company decides to pursue.  Penetrated market- the set of consumers who are buying the company’s product.
  • 33. Major Concepts in Demand Measurement  Market Demand: Market demand for a product is the total volume that would be bought by a defined customer group in a defined geographical area in a defined time period in a defined marketing environment under a defined marketing program.  Market Forecast: It shows expected market demand, not maximum market demand based on only one level of industry marketing expenditure.  Market Potential: Market potential is the limit approached by market demand as industry marketing expenditures approach infinity for a given marketing environment.(recession or prosperity)
  • 34. Market Demand Functions  Market demand is not a fixed number, but rather a function of the stated conditions. For this reason, we call it the market demand function. Its dependence on underlying conditions is illustrated in Figure 3.3(a).  The horizontal axis shows different possible levels of industry marketing expenditure in a given time period. The vertical axis shows the resulting demand level. The curve represents the estimated market demand associated with varying levels of marketing expenditure. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-34
  • 35. Major Concepts in Demand Measurement: Company Demand: Company’s estimated share of market demand at alternative levels of company marketing effort in a given time period. It depends on how the company products, services, prices and communication are perceived relative to the competitors. Company Sales Forecast: once the company has estimated the market demand, their next task is to the level of marketing effort. Expected level of company sales based on a chosen marketing plan and an assumed marketing environment.  A sales quota is the sales goal set for a product line, company division, or sales representative.. Company Sales Potential: Company sales potential is the sales limit approached by company demand as company marketing effort increases relative to that of competitors.
  • 36. Estimating Current Demand: Total Market Potential  Calculations  Potential number of buyers x Avg. Quantity each buyer purchases X price  Chain-ratio method: multiply base number by several adjusting percentages. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-36
  • 37. Estimating Current Demand: Area Market Potential: Companies must allocate their marketing budget optimally among their best territories, they need to measure the market potential for different cities, states and nations Multiple-Factor Index Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-37
  • 38. Estimating Future Demand  Survey of Buyers’ Intentions  Composite of Sales Force Opinions  Expert Opinion  Past-Sales Analysis  Market-Test Method Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-38
  • 39. For Review  What are the components of a modern marketing information system?  What are useful internal records?  What makes up a marketing intelligence system?  What are some influential macroenvironment developments?  How can companies accurately measure and forecast demand? Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 3-39