In this month's report Rong Viet explains why they expect a continuation of the current sideway trend in September and how to play the growth in the Vietnamese constrcution sector.
Access to this presentation has been made possible through "Sao Bien. Room for Education", an Austrian-based non-profit organization and cooperation partner of Viet Dragon Securities.
Reprinted with the permission of Viet Dragon Securities. Not for US investors.
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Rong Viet Securities - Investment Strategy Report September 2017
1. Most of the time in August, VNIndex experienced a strong correction as H1 2017 business results season
came to the end, couple with quite high relative valuation of the stock market. The increase in large-cap
stocks, including SAB, VIC, and banking stocks, has helped VNIndex quickly bounce back to 780 points by
the end of the month.
The solid growth of the macro indicators is still the key factor that leads to positive market sentiment.
Moreover, in the short term, low inflation rate will help SBV to actively control the FX variation as well as
allow credit growth at 21–22% based on the Government’s direction. Besides, SBV’s Draft on Circular 36
amendment also proposes to keep the ratio of short-term capital to finance mid- and long-term loans at
45% in 2018 and reduce to 40% from 2019 (Circular 06: 40% from 2018). If the proposal is approved, credit
institutes may have less pressure on raising mid- and long-term deposits. Thanks to those solutions,
interestratecould bekeptatthecurrentlow ratefortheremainingmonthsof2017. Hence, thelinkamong
investment channels will cause cash flow to stay within the stock market. The average liquidity in the
remaining months of 2017 will be above the past eight months average of VND3,200 billion–VND3,300
billion.
Even so, we see no likely catalysts for a persistent uptrend at this time. In particular, we find no supportive
information from the listed companies in September. Along with that, the participation of foreign
investors in Vietnam stock market was reduced to 5-6% in August (while their normal contribution is
around 10-11%), in the context that FED can possibly raise interest rates and ECB will narrow down their
quantity easingpoliciesinSeptember. Theweakparticipation offoreigninvestors, coupled withtherecent
dispute on global geopolitics, may not result to a negative effect in the market, but could have a strong
impact on the market sentiment, especially in the “red” sessions.
Overall, it is unlikely that the market will break the current sideways trend soon. We think that VNIndex
will experience more fluctuation (from 760 to 800 points) in September. Improving liquidity means the
daily trading activities will be easier. Despite of that, there will be risk for investors to use margin for
trading on speculative stocks, especially in the overexciting sessions. Meanwhile, given the support of
macro stability (at least from the Government’s decisiveness), we think that investors can stand a chance
to accumulate stocks with sound fundamentals and have a bright outlook in the second half of 2017.
Besides, after a strong correction in August, relative valuation of many stocks decreased to a more
reasonable value. Therefore, the ones with P/E and P/B lower than its peers may generate higher return to
investors.
Strategy Board
Truc Doan – Head of Research
truc.dtt@vdsc.com.vn
Ha My Tran
my.tth@vdsc.com.vn
Lam Nguyen
lam.ntp@vdsc.com.vn
Thien Bui
thien.bv@vdsc.com.vn
Hieu Nguyen
hieu.nd@vdsc.com.vn
Quang Vo
quang.vv@vdsc.com.vn
Ha Tran
ha.ttn@vdsc.com.vn
Please see penultimate page for
additional important disclosure
Viet Dragon Securities Corp. (“VDSC”) is
a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in
the USA. VDSC research is prepared by
research analysts who are not registered
in the USA. VDSC research is distributed
in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely
by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC
registered and FINRA-member broker-
dealer.
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11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
PE VNIndex Average PE
06/09/2017
Investment Strategy September 2017
The Confrontation Between Chance and Risk
2. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September2017 2
CONTENTS
WORLD ECONOMY ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................3
US: Growth Momentum Extends in Q3.............................................................................................................................................................3
EU: EUR Heating Up ..................................................................................................................................................................................................3
China: Credit Squeeze Ahead of Leadership Reshuffle...............................................................................................................................4
GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS...............................................................................................................................................................................................................5
VIETNAM MACRO.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................6
Bright Spots in the Economy in Q3 2017..........................................................................................................................................................6
Taxation Changes, Implementation Progress, and Potential Impact....................................................................................................7
VIETNAM STOCK MARKET IN AUGUST: RECOVERY AFTER DEEP CORRECTION.................................................................................................12
SEPTEMBER STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK.................................................................................................................................................................................16
INVESTMENT STRATEGY ................................................................................................................................................................................................................17
Demand on construction comes not only from the residential housing but also from other segments such as hospitality real estate,
commercial and office building, workshop and industrial projects, infrastructure, etc. Therefore, although the housing segment is predicted
to be saturated in the next few years, it could still bring about increasing construction demand. We expect that constructors who are
pioneers in diversifying backlogs towards other market segments will outperform their peers. Among the listed construction companies, we
have noticed several signs of CTD reforming its revenue structure as well. Even though residential segment still accounts for around 70% of
the company’s total revenue, the larger contribution from commercial and office and industrial sectors will help CTD to diversify its backlog
portfolio. By the end of Q2 2017, CTD’s backlog is around VND26,181 billion (+18% YoY) and we expect the backlog could grow even higher
following FDI’s trend and the expansion of domestic manufacturers.
The acceleration of construction in H2 2017 will push the demand on construction materials, especially in the tile industry. The consumers’
taste is changing; low quality and small size ceramics have been replaced by granite. Given its low penetration ratio at 13%, there is large
room for granite to grow in the upcoming years. Among the listed firms, we prefer VIT and CVT due to their large market share (11% and
5%, respectively) and expansion capacity. Given the growth story of granite, it is worth noticing that CVT is investing in a new production
line, which is expected to add 25% more to the firm’s total capacity.
In eight months of 2017, manufacturing growth was 10.8%, which is higher than the same period of last year growth of 10.4%. Some
industries including Steel, Plastic, Paper, Textile and Fertilizer, recorded impressive growth. Although production has been growing, we
recognize that some industries such as Plastic, Textile or Fertilizer, have less power to actively control their output price. In this context, steel
firms have enjoyed not only the Government’s protection policies but also the uptrend of steel price since mid-Q2 2017. As a result, profit
margin of steel players like HPG, HSG, and NKG could extend further in H2 2017. In the the long-term view, we prefer HPG over the others
due to its close value chain from upstream to downstream and its growth capacity prospect from Dung Quat Steel Complex.
For the banking industry, the story comes not only from the credit growth but also from provision for expenses/reversals. Given the effective
of Decision 42, it is expected that the credit institutes can have more authority to foreclose and dispose collateral. It shoud take a long time
to see the results, but the expectation has been reflected on the stock price. Therefore, although having sound fundamental from both core
business and restructure progress, ACB’s relative valuation is no longer cheap compared to MBB and CTG currently.
HIGHLIGHT STOCKS……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...20
Analysis of 55 stocks of RongViet Research, Discussion with Companies and Specific Evaluation in the “Company Report” or
“Analyst Pinboard”.
3. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 3
WORLD ECONOMY
• US: Growth Momentum Extends in Q3
• EU: EUR Heating Up
• China: Credit Squeeze Ahead of Leadership Reshuffle
US: Growth Momentum Extends in Q3
Revised data showed that US GDP growth expanded faster than the first estimate (3.0% in
Q2 2017). An upward revision was mainly thanks to stronger household consumption and non-
residential investment. Growth momentum is expected to remain in the third quarter. According
to the Institute for Supply Management, manufacturing activity expanded faster in August,
climbing to 58.8 from 56.3 in July, the highest level since 2011. In addition, healthy gain in retail
sales could also translate into bright outlook for private consumption in Q3. In July, growth in
retail sales accelerated to 4.2% from a revised 3.4% in June. Simultaneously, the Conference
Board’s consumer confidence index rose from 120 in July to 122.9 in August, marking the second-
best reading since December 2000.
Despite the Fed officials’ most recent projections of one more rate hike this year and three in 2018,
market expectation tells a different story with the Fed funds futures market points to no more rate
hikes this year and probably only one in 2018. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, the
probability of a rate hike in September meeting is 0%. Projection for November meeting is 2% (for
an increase of 25 bsp). In December meeting, the likelihood of a rate hike of 25 bsp increases to
only 31.3% while the probability of the rate remaining unchanged is 67.1%. Given the recent weak
development of inflation and inflation expectations, we expect somewhat dovish tones from the
September FOMC meeting. However, market still expects that the FOMC will announce the start
of balance sheet normalization at this meeting.
EU: EUR Heating Up
Similar to the US, leading indicators for Q3 point to solid continued momentum. In August 2017,
the manufacturing PMI was at 57.4, a robust level suggesting that the strong growth during the
first half of 2017 has been sustained into Q3. However, the composite PMI slipped from 55.8 to
55.7, indicating that a strong expansion of the manufacturing sector has been offset by less
growth in the service sector. The EU economy is forecasted to grow 0.6% in the third quarter due
to improved consumer and business sentiment as well as robust growth in the manufacturing
sector.
Figure 1: US ISM PMI Figure 2: US Inflation
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
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4. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 4
The strong depreciation of US dollar coupled with strong economic momentum in the EU led the
euro to appreciate to its highest value against the dollar in over two years at the end of August.
The euro was up 13.5% year-to-date. Ahead of September meeting was the message coming from
the central bank which suggested some discomfort with the EUR’s recent strength because the
strong appreciation could put downward pressure on inflation. Regarding the upcoming
monetary policy decision, despite net changes in ECB balance sheet which slowed down in recent
months, expectations that the ECB might announce a policy shift have been largely delayed to
Oct 2017 as the policy makers will not be ready to reduce asset purchase until 2018.
Figure 3: EUR-USD Trends Near Seasonal Peak Figure 4: EU Inflation Rate (%)
Source: Scotiabank Source: Bloomberg
China: Credit Squeeze Ahead of Leadership Reshuffle
Chinese banks extended USD122.8 billion in new loans in July, falling sharply from June and
recording an eight-month low level. Meanwhile, broad M2 money supply grew 9.2% YoY – the
slowest since 1996. According to PoBC, the slowing M2 growth could be a “new normal” due to
the efforts to solve risky shadow lending activities. The overwhelming consensus is that the PoBC
will hold off on further monetary policy tightening ahead of a leadership reshuffle.
The 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress is the most important political event to watch
heading to the final quarter of this year. In this event, Xi’s power is put to the test and the trajectory
of the country in the next five years will be revealed. In addition, there is a market consensus that
the Chinese authorities would not create any interruption in GDP growth until after the leadership
transition in the 19th Congress. Despite good growth momentum in H1 2017, the downside risks
to short-term economic growth prospects remain high amid concerns over China’s banking
system.
Figure 5: China New Yuan Loans (USD billion) Figure 6: China Money Supply M2 Growth (%)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
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5. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 5
GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Figure 7: Performances of Some Global Markets in August
Source: Bloomberg, RongViet Research
Markets entered August without much business earnings news. However, the markets were still
affected by an upsurge of political risk, which was led by the tension between North Korea and
the US and terrorist attacks in Spain. However, macro data was quite positive, showing that the
global economy remains solid. The markets in August relied on these data.
In the US, the economy still showed signs of solid growth. The second quarter GDP was revised
up to 3% while unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Besides, retail sales were up 4.2% YoY. Many
forecasts show that growth will reach 2% for H2 2017, even without the fiscal stimulus and public
spending that Trump is struggling to implement. However, the inflation rate still stayed below 2%
at 1.7%. Such movement lowered the possibility that FED will hike up the rate in December to
34%. Last but not least, markets are heading to the September meeting where market players are
looking forward to obtaining more details at the balance sheet cutoff. Dow Jones (+0.26%), S&P
500 (0.05%) and Nasdaq (+1.84%) gained in August.
Core inflation remained at 1.3% in the EU, lower than the ECB’s target of 2%. The result has been
anticipated in the minutes of July meeting where many members agreed that besides pursuing
inflation target, other growth and labor markets were also very important. As a result, the ECB
stated that it might not end the QE in the near term. Investors will need more time to have more
clues on this decision. CAC 40 and DAX did not react strongly to macro data as they decreased
0.16% and 0.52%, respectively. The negotiations between the UK and EU still proceeded. In spite
of the persisting potential uncertainty over this process, the FTSE 100 was one of the few indexes
in Europe with positive returns in August.
Asian stocks saw North Korea shaking the market. Aside from this political risk, the macro
conditions in big countries such as Japan and China were quite positive. In Japan, the second
quarter GDP growth was 4%, which was higher than expected. The PMI rose to 52.8. However, the
subdued inflation at 0.4% showed an uncertain economic outlook. Moreover, the rising political
risk encouraged investors to choose JPY, which is strengthened, leaving the Nikkie 225 down.
China has also received positive macro reports despite some investors still showing some concern
about shadow banking. However, SSE Index and Hang Seng Index still went up 2.9% and 2.4% in
August.
Oil prices (WTI) dropped 5.86%. Despite Hurricane Harvey, traders were not positive about oil
prices after EIA had reported an increase in US production. On the other hand, gold price surged
4% due to increasing geopolitical threats.
.260% .055% 1.841% .795%
-.161% -.515% -1.400%
2.900% 2.365% 1.520%
-1.645%
.396% .309%
-.101%
2.669% 4.093%
-5.860%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
DowJones
S&P500
Nasdaq
FTSE100
CAC40
DAX
Nikkei225
SSE(Shanghai)
HangSeng(Hongkong)
TSEC(Taiwan)
Kospi(Korean)
JKSE(Indonesia)
KLSE(Malaysia)
VNIndex(Vietnam)
HNX-Index(Vietnam)
Gold
Oil
From 31/07/2017 to 31/08/2017 From 31/12/2016 to 31/08/2017
6. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 6
VIETNAM MACRO
• Bright Spots in the Economy in Q3 2017
• Taxation Changes, Implementation Progress, and Potential Impact
Bright Spots in the Economy in Q3 2017
GDP could grow 6.8-7% in Q3
Growth momentum accelerated in Q3 2017. On the supply side, according to GSO, industrial
production index in August increased 3.9% MoM. We observed that this gain was in a relatively
high level in the middle of the year after considering seasonal effects. In addition, the same
growth usually happens in the last quarter of the year. In eight months, industrial production
index increased 6.7%, which was lower than the increase of 7.2% in the same period of 2016.
However, the most notable change is that manufacturing growth was 10.8%, which is higher than
the same period growth of 10.4%. The deceleration of mining industry has been slowed down (-
6.7% YoY in eight months compared to -8.2% YoY in H1 2017). Positive signs appeared not only
in terms of manufacturing growth but also in terms of demand, as consumption index showed a
very encouraging gain in the first month of Q3. In seven months of 2017, consumption index
increased 9.5% YoY, which was higher compared to the gain of 8.4% in H1 2017 and 8.1% in the
same period of last year. Positive demand also helps inventory decline; inventory index as of
8 January 2017 increased 9.8% YoY. Based on production growth of some industries, we expect
positive business growth for companies in the Steel, Plastic, Paper, Textile and Fertilizer industries.
Figure 8: Industrial Production Movement Figure 9: Production Growth of Some Industries
Source: GSO Source: GSO
On the demand side, consumption showed resilience in the third quarter. To be specific, total
retail sales improved to 11.7% YoY in August, faster than a growth of 10.3% in July. In particular,
revenue from the retail segment increased significantly (+12% YoY). In eight months of 2017, total
retail sales increased 8.9%YoY (excluding inflation), higher than the same period of 2016 (+8.5%
YoY). From a microeconomic view, we think this trend will support consumer goods
manufacturers in terms of business performance.
Based on the above data, we expect the manufacturing and consumption sectors could accelerate
in the third quarter and contribute significantly to GDP growth. At the moment, we are optimistic
about the GDP growth in Q3 2017. We expect GDP could grow 6.8-7% in Q3, lower than the
-2.0
.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
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50
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IP (3m Moving Average) PMI 34%
27%
24%
18% 17%
10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9%
TV
Billet
RolledSteel
Garment
Urea
NPK
Water
Milk
Fishery
Textile
RebarSteel
7. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 7
Government’s target of 7.23% but higher than GDP growth in Q2. RongViet Research estimates
GDP in nine months of 2017 at 6.1-6.2%, higher than the same period of last year.
Inflation is under control
In August, most of consumer goods’ prices increased, causing an increase of 0.92% MoM in CPI.
Food and foodstuff contributed the most to that gain (34 bps) due to the recovery in pork price
and a strong increase of vegetable prices. In addition, transportation contributed 20 bps to CPI
because of double petroleum price hikes in August. The healthcare services price adjustments
also contributed 14 bps to CPI. In eight months of 2017, CPI recovered to 3.35% YoY; average gain
was 3.84% YoY, lower than the Government target of 4%. Although headline inflation recovered,
core inflation was unchanged in August. Core inflation increased 1.47%YoY in eight months of
2017, lower than the increase of 1.88% at the beginning of the year.
Figure 10: Retail Sales Figure 11: Inflation Movement
Source: GSO Source: GSO
Taxation Changes, Implementation Progress, and Potential Impact
The Vietnam Ministry of Finance has recently announced the plan to launch the tax reform
program through two drafts on amending and supplementing the Law on Environmental
Protection Tax and the current laws on five types of tax namely VAT, Special Sales Tax, Corporate
Income Tax, Personal Income Tax and Natural Resources Tax. These types of tax contribute about
62% of the government revenue, while the rest comes from import-export tax, fees and other
income. Hence, the two proposals could be seen as an overhaul of the tax system which likely
leads to a significant impact on revenue structure. The plan will result in both revenue losses and
gains, depending on the segment of change but we suppose budget revenue could improve
rapidly in the near term due to high tax base of VAT and Environmental Protection Tax.
Meanwhile, the negative impacts of a higher consumption tax (VAT) and environmental
protection tax on consumer spending, inflation as well as economic growth are worthy of more
adjustments by policy makers in order to ensure this plan is passed through National Assembly in
2018. Table 1 details RongViet Research’s analysis of the many changes the Government has
outlined for the tax reforms. We hope long-term investors could follow these taxation changes to
see potential impacts on related industries such as: Consumer Goods (mixed between (+) and (-)),
Fertilizers (+), Automobiles ((+) for domestic auto manufacturers), Agriculture (+), IT (+), etc.
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
0%
4%
8%
12%
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
05/2017
06/2017
07/2017
08/2017
Value (bn dong) Growth (ex inflation)
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
05/2017
06/2017
07/2017
08/2017
Headline inflation Core inflation
8. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September2017 8
Table 1: Taxation Changes, Implementation Progress, and Potential Impact
Type Key changes Objective Implementation Impact
Consumption tax (VAT) Increase the current standard 10% VAT rate to:
12% from 01 Jan 2019; or
12% from 01 Jan 2019 and then 14% from 01 Jan
2021.
The draft law removes a number of goods/services
entitled to the 5%VAT rate, moving them to the
standard tax rate (water, medical and educational
equipment used for multiple purposes, sporting and
entertaining activities, books).
The 5% VAT rate is proposed to increase to 6% from
01/01/2019.
Transfer of land use rights is proposed to be changed
from VAT exempt to taxable at the standard VAT rate.
Transfer of fertilizers, agricultural machines, off-
shore fishing boats from VAT exempt to taxable at
5% VAT or the standard VAT rate.
Tax refunds to be brought back for enterprises
manufacturing goods or providing services subject
to the 6% VAT rate.
Threshold for payment by bank for both VAT and CIT
purposes is proposed to be reduced from
VND20 million to VND10 million.
Raise Government revenue and
to be consistent with existing
global legislations.
Reduce administrative
procedures and the
complication of calculating tax.
The National Assembly will
discuss this in 2018 and it will
take effect on 01 Jan 2019.
However, there is a fierce
debate for “fairness” and
household burden, especially
the low-income class in the
country.
The MoF estimates the VAT increase could add 0.06-0.39% to CPI. It is
not a significant number and due to lack of transparency in calculation
methodology, we still doubt about this impact.
Currently, many economists are most concerned about the effects of
VAT increase on household demand, the distribution of income and
the shadow economy. If higher VAT feeds through into higher prices,
it will prompt a fall in real income. According to Euromonitor, despite
the country’s strong economic growth, the majority of Vietnamese
consumers will still belong to the low-income segment until 2030.
Thus, a hike in VAT rate could lead to weaker consumption growth.
However, because not all products are subject to VAT (i.e. necessities);
rising income continues in Vietnam and a change in VAT will not be
introduced in isolation, we think the net negative effects of VAT on
aggregate demand and the distribution of income could be softened
partly. Last but not least, based on our practical observations, the rise
in VAT is expected to boost the size of the shadow economy in
Vietnam. According to the most recent research paper*, Vietnam’s
shadow economy averaged about 15.1% of GDP between 1991 and
2015. If the shadow economy grows, recorded GDP will suffer too.
Based on our estimates, the VAT increase could create medium term
benefits of reducing the fiscal deficit. In 2016, VAT contributed 24.5%
to budget revenue. If the new tax applies in 2019, budget revenue
could be added by VND70,000 billion. This is a huge number
compared to the size of budget deficit target during 2016-2018.
When analyzing the effect of VAT increase on the macro economy
there are plenty of aspects to consider, however, RongViet Research
think a rise in VAT could cause higher inflation, reduced aggregate
demand and increased income inequality. These deteriorations will
happen at the expense of improved government budget. A rise in VAT
is considered as part of fiscal tightening policy. We think there is
needed for the Government to provide supplementary policies in
order to help this change pass through the National Assembly in 2018.
Corporate Income Tax Tax on capital/share transfers by non-residents
(CAPT): 1% on sales proceeds as opposed to the
current 20% on net gain. CAPT on securities transfer
unchanged at 0.1% on sales proceeds.
To be consistent with actual
situation.
The National Assembly will
discuss this in 2018.
SMEs make up 95% of all companies operating in Vietnam, providing
more than 50% of the national workforce and contribute 40% of GDP.
Facilitating SMEs growth through tax incentives is one of the ways to
upgrade growth driver in Vietnam economy.
9. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 9
Proposal to allow offsetting of gains from real estate
transfers against losses from operations.
Introduction of thin capitalization rules: no tax
deduction for interest where debt to equity ratio
exceeds 5:1 for manufacturing companies, 4:1 for
other industries and 12:1 for banking.
Cut the CIT for SMEs by 3 percentage points to 17%,
the CIT for super small companies could be lower at
15%**.
CIT Incentives:
Limit incentives available in economic zones located
in favorable socio-economic areas.
Reintroduce incentives for certain software services
and digital content.
Align with Law on Investment for investments in
rural areas having more than 500 employees and
investment projects producing goods subject to SST
(except auto manufacturing).
Strengthen corporate’s
financial situation, prevent
transfer pricing.
Reduce tax burden for SMEs
facing impact of fierce
competition.
Simplify CIT incentives policy,
add incentives for preferential
sectors to encourage
investment.
CIT from SMEs contributes less than 1% to total budget revenue. So
we think the tax cuts will impact insignificantly to budget revenue.
Special Sales Tax Introduce SST on soft drinks at either 10% or 20%
from 01 Jan 2019.
Increase rates for cigarettes and cigars:
Add a fixed SST charge of VND 1,000 per pack of 20
cigarettes and VND 1,500 per cigar, effective 01
January 2020; or
Increase the SST rate from 75% to 80% on cigarettes
from 01 Jan 2020 and to 85% from 01 Jan 2021.
Amend taxable revenue for automobiles with less
than 9 seats manufactured in Vietnam to sales price
of manufacturer exclusive of the value of spare parts
produced domestically.
Hike SST on imported pickup trucks: 60% of the rate
on sedans with the same engine capacity.
Adjust consumer behavior on
sugary drinks and cigarettes.
Encourage domestic auto
manufacturer to increase the
localization rate and to develop
domestic auto industry.
The National Assembly will
discuss this in 2018.
Effective time depends on type
of products.
Special Sales Tax contributes to 7-8% of total budget revenue. The
increase of SST for soft drinks and cigarettes could boost budget
revenue in the medium term. However, we think the effect will be
minimal in the long run.
Allow domestic car manufacturers to better compete with imported
cars. Companies benefited from this change include THACO, Huyndai
Thanh Cong, Toyota. In the beginning of September, VIC also
announced plans to invest up to USD3.5 billion to set up a car-
manufacturing complex.
Personal Income Tax Similar to CAPT for non-residents, PIT on both
residents and nonresidents for capital transfer is
proposed to be 1% on sales proceeds. PIT on transfer
of securities is to remain at 0.1% of the sales
proceeds.
Encourage labors in IT and
agriculture sectors.
Reduce the complication of
calculating tax and to be
The National Assembly will
discuss this in 2018.
PIT contribution on budget revenue is around 6%. Backed by rising
income, contribution of PIT to budget revenue has gradually
increased. We think the base of this tax has potential to grow and
these changes have minor impacts on PIT’s revenue.
10. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 10
There is 50% reduction of PIT on employment
income of individuals working in IT industry,
agriculture, and agricultural product processing
projects.
Reduce the number of tax brackets from 7 to 5 for
employment income for tax residents and broaden
the tax base for middle income earners (Table 2).
Amend the tax rate for income from prizes from flat
rate of 10% to progressive rates up to 30%.
Exemption on first VND10 million is proposed to be
removed.
Increase the withholding threshold for payments to
non-employees from VND 2 million to VND 5 million.
The withholding rate remains 10%.
consistent with actual
situation.
Simplify administration
procedures.
Natural Resource Tax Amend some articles of the NRT law to provide
clearer guidance on taxable price, types of natural
water and taxable objects.
Align with Law on Mineral
Resources and actual situation.
The National Assembly will
discuss this in 2018.
Price is taxable on natural water producing hydro power.
Environmental
Protection Tax (EPT)
Raise environmental tax rates on petroleum, oil,
mazut, plastic bags, etanol petroleum (Table 3).
Encourage the use of
environment-friendly products.
Offset the negative impacts on
budget revenue due to the cut
import tariffs on petroleum
products.
The National Assembly will
discuss this in Oct 2017 and to
be finalized in the next meeting
in 2018.
We think doubling environmental protection tax on petroleum will
not happen immediately and the Government will adjust gradually
based on inflation movement. Despite of this, the proposal to raise
EPT on petroleum will drive inflation higher.
This type of tax contributes 4% of total budget revenue in 2016,
because fuel products’ tax base is large. Any changes in EPT on fuel
products could create huge revenue for budget.
Source: MoF, PWC, RongViet Research complied
* http://www.econ.jku.at/members/Schneider/files/publications/2017/JointPaper_LeandroMedina_158countries.pdf | ** SMEs: companies with < 200 labors + revenue per year is from VND3 billion–VND50 billion;
Super small companies: revenue per year is lower than VND3 billion.
11. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September2017
11
Table 2: Proposed Income Tax Brackets (monthly income – VND million)
Current Income Bracket Tax Amount (%) Proposed Income Bracket Tax Amount (%)
1 Less than 5 5 Less than 10 5
2 5-10 10 10-30 10
3 10-18 15 30-50 20
4 18-32 20 50-80 28
5 32-52 25 Greater than 80 35
6 52-80 30
7 Greater than 80 35
Source: MoF
Table 3: Proposed Environmental Protection Tax
No. Products Unit
Tax Rate (VND)
Current Proposed
1 Petroleum, except etanol Liter 1,000-4,000 3,000-8,000
2 Air fuel Liter 1,000-3,000 3,000-6,000
3 Diezel Liter 500-2,000 1,500-4,000
4 Paraffin oil Liter 300-2,000 300-2,000
5 Mazut Liter 300-2,000 900-4,000
6 Lubricant Liter 300-2,000 900-4,000
7 E5 petroleum Liter 2,700-7,200
8 E10 petroleum Liter 2,500-6,800
9 Plastic bags Kilogram 30,000-50,000 40,000-80,000
Source: MoF
12. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September2017
12
VIETNAM STOCK MARKET IN AUGUST: RECOVERY AFTER DEEP CORRECTION
The market movement seen in August was similar to what we saw in July, but with stronger
fluctuation. The only sell-off on August 9th dragged the VNIndex and the HNIndex down by 2.6%
and 1.2%, respectively. For the period August 8th–22nd, the VNIndex fell 4.0% (vs. 2.9% over the
similar sell-off period in July). But thanks to a robust recovery in the last two weeks, the VNIndex
ended only slightly below its beginning prices (-0.1%), and the HNIndex even closed above the
flat line by 2.7%. Despite a stronger fluctuation, the market liquidity did not improve much, with
total trading value on the HSX increasing 1.5%, while that on the HNX declining by 7.6%,
compared to July.
Figure 12: VNIndex Movement in August Figure 13: HNXIndex Movement in August
Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research
The recovery of the VN30 was the main contributor for VNIndex narrowing its losses. During
the period August 22nd–31st, we saw 21 stocks in the index, with total market cap accounting for
about 55% of the HSX, driving the VNIndex up. VIC and banking stocks including VCB, BID, and
MBB were the most notable names. As for VIC, its subsidiary, Vincom Retail, is planning an IPO that
could become the country’s biggest ever share sale from the private sector. Along with the
upcoming Vincity project, Vingroup’s affordable home brand, the IPO could draw investors’
interest.
After being affected by the news and rumors regarding the arrests of big names in the industry,
the banking stocks have eventually returned to lead the market, thanks to the following
information: First, there is an extension of the timeline applying Circular 06 to adjust the ratio of
short-term loans financing medium and long-term loans. Second, the prime minister has decided
to boost credit growth further in the remaining months of the year. BID even rose to the ceiling
on the last day of the month following rumors of a preliminary contract signing with a Korean
bank.
Table 4: Contribution of FLC, ROS, HAI to Total Market Liquidity
Proportion of Trading Volume Proportion of Trading Value
FLC 11.6% 5.2%
ROS 1.5% 7.9%
HAI 3.5% 2.9%
Source: Fiin Pro, RongViet Research
FLC, ROS, and HAI saw abnormal transactions in August. On August 24th, FLC’s trading value
accounted for 18% of the HSX. HAI, which usually contributes just lower than 2%, affected
720
740
760
780
800
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
02/06 16/06 30/06 14/07 28/07 11/08 25/08
Trading Volume (mil. shares) VNINdex (right axis)
85
89
93
97
101
105
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
02/06 16/06 30/06 14/07 28/07 11/08 25/08
Trading Volume (mil. shares) HNXIndex (right axis)
13. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 13
significantly the overall liquidity in some sessions with its trading value accounting for 10.6%. ROS
also had a heavy impact on the market with 7% proportion in total trading value in the second
half of August.
Looking more closely at the transactions, we found that these stocks’ impact was local.
Calculating each stock’s average contribution to the VNIndex, we saw that these figures are not
significant. Besides, excluding ROS, FLC, and HAI, the performance of the market liquidity would
not change much, except for the August 11th and 22nd sessions. Therefore, we believe that the
market liquidity has been and will continue to be at normal levels, regardless of the absence of
these stocks.
Figure 14: The Change of Market Liquidity in Each Session in August
Source: Fiin Pro, RongViet Research
Derivatives Market Started to Operate
The market saw a milestone in August with the appearance of the VN30 futures contracts on
August 10th. The newly formed market drew investors’ attention with total trading value jumping
by more than ten times from VND36.5 billion to VND400 billion–VND500 billion. The one-month
contract played a primary role as it accounted for above 90% of the total trading value.
Figure 15: Total Trading Value on the VN30 Futures Market
Source: Fiin Pro, RongViet Research
In terms of price movement, the shortest-term contracts (one month) followed closely the VN30
Index, while the longest-term contract (VN30F1803) did not fluctuate much, only around 760
points.
Our view on this new market is that the gradual increase in liquidity is a good sign, implying that
more and more investors are interested in it. In addition, the futures market should be able to
attract more capital to match the size of the stock market, whose average liquidity is around
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
8/1/2017
8/4/2017
8/7/2017
8/10/2017
8/13/2017
8/16/2017
8/19/2017
8/22/2017
8/25/2017
8/28/2017
8/31/2017
HSX HSX (excluding FLC, ROS, HAI)
37
418
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
08/10/2017
08/11/2017
08/14/2017
08/15/2017
08/16/2017
08/17/2017
08/18/2017
08/21/2017
08/22/2017
08/23/2017
08/24/2017
08/25/2017
08/28/2017
08/29/2017
08/30/2017
08/31/2017
14. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 14
VND4,000 billion/session. Thus, we expect more participants to join the futures market, making
it reflect more closely with the movement of the stock market.
Figure 16: The VN30 Futures Contract Prices
Source: Fiin Pro, RongViet Research
Foreign Investors Trading
Figure 17: Net Trading Value of Foreign Investors
Source: Fiin Pro, RongViet Research
In August, foreign investors were net buyers on both the HSX and HNX. Total net buying volume
was over 56 million shares, equivalent to VND2,679 billion.
Foreigners were net buyers of 50.87 million shares on the HSX with a net value of VND2,652 billion.
Banking stocks continued to attract foreign cash flow as their net buying value amounted to more
than 50% on the HSX, to which VPB is the main contributor. Recalling August 17th when this stock
was officially listed, ATO had 46 million shares traded for nearly VND1,800 billion. Buyers
continued to stack up their orders all that day. At the end of the session, VPB set a record for the
largest trading day value on the HSX at VND2,255 billion. Ranked second in the net buyers list is
the Basic Resources with a net buying value of VND 339 billion. Foreign investors were interested
in HPG as they net bought over 238 million of its shares. The sharp increase in construction steel
prices in July was a factor supporting HPG in particular and other steel stocks in general.
On the HNX, foreigners were net buyers of VND26.58 billion. Banking stocks led the net buyers
list. Foreigners net purchased VND77 billion worth of SHB shares. Construction and building
materials ranked second with three noticeable stocks: HUT (+VND43 billion), DNP (+VND29
730
740
750
760
770
08/11/2017
08/14/2017
08/15/2017
08/16/2017
08/17/2017
08/18/2017
08/21/2017
08/22/2017
08/23/2017
08/24/2017
08/25/2017
08/28/2017
08/29/2017
08/30/2017
VN30 VN30F1708 VN30F1709
VN30F1710 VN30F1712 VN30F1803
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
03/01 21/03 02/06
Net bought/sold Accumulated Value
15. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 15
billion) and VIT (+VND10 billion). In contrast, Oil & Gas was sold the most. Offshore investors net
sold nearly VND135 billion worth of PVS shares.
A strange ATC trading session took place on August 29th. The highlight of this session was a series
of stocks in VN30 basket such as BVH, KDC, VNM and SSI, which unexpectedly sold out strongly
ATC, dropped to the floor price and closed in red. Such movement can only be seen in ETFs’
reconstitution sessions. In fact, since the beginning of the month, investors have withdrawn
USD7.24 million from VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF. The fund might have focused on selling shares
in one session rather than scattered over several sessions. The FTSE Vietnam Index has released
the reconstitution for Q3 2017 related to two ETFs. Accordingly, PLX is the only stock to be added
to the index basket and no stock will be excluded for Q3 2017. RongViet Research estimates that
2.6 million PLX shares will be bought. The Db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam UCITS ETF will complete the
transaction on September 15th. VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF will also publish an announcement
on September 9th (Vietnam time). RongViet Research forecasts that the fund will neither add nor
remove any shares during this reconstitution. The fund will also complete the transaction on
September 15th.
Sectors
HSX HNX
Net Volume
(million shares)
Net Value
(VND B)
Net Volume
(million shares)
Net Value
(VND B)
Oil & gas -1.05 109.25 -7.96 -133.35
Chemicals 0.69 76.32 -0.36 -1.60
Basic resource 10.46 338.75 1.66 6.07
Construction & building
materials
-7.43 -70.09 3.74 61.11
Industrial goods & services -1.01 28.09 0.27 4.09
Automobiles & parts -1.69 -36.91 0.00 -0.01
Food & beverage 5.84 259.77 0.47 6.50
Personal and household goods -1.18 -18.54 0.06 -0.60
Healthcare 1.17 103.56 0.06 -0.42
Retail 0.10 6.65 0.02 0.21
Communication 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.34
Travel & leisure -3.68 -81.86 0.21 12.08
Utilities -1.97 -8.17 0.19 2.46
Banks 42.77 1,566.55 9.96 82.28
Insurance 0.02 -1.87 -0.54 -12.25
Real estate 7.87 190.85 -0.28 8.58
Financial services -0.20 186.87 -2.33 -9.44
Technology 0.17 3.37 0.06 0.54
Total 50.87 2,652.58 5.22 26.58
Source: Fiin Pro, RongViet Research
16. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 16
SEPTEMBER STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK
Most of the time in August, VNIndex experienced a strong correction as H1 2017 business results
season came to the end, couple with quite high relative valuation of the stock market. The
increase in large-cap stocks, including SAB, VIC, and banking stocks, has helped VNIndex quickly
bounce back to 780 points by the end of the month.
The solid growth of the macro indicators is still the key factor that leads to positive market
sentiment. Moreover, in the short term, low inflation rate will help SBV to actively control the FX
variation as well as allow credit growth at 21–22% based on the Government’s direction. Besides,
SBV’s Draft on Circular 36 amendment also proposes to keep the ratio of short-term capital to
finance mid- and long-term loans at 45% in 2018 and reduce to 40% from 2019 (Circular 06: 40%
from 2018). If the proposal is approved, credit institutes may have less pressure on raising mid-
and long-term deposits. Thanks to those solutions, interest rate could be kept at the current low
rate for the remaining months of 2017. Hence, the link among investment channels will cause
cash flow to stay within the stock market. The average liquidity in the remaining months of 2017
will be above the past eight months average of VND3,200 billion–VND3,300 billion.
Even so, we see no likely catalysts for a persistent uptrend at this time. In particular, we find no
supportive information from the listed companies in September. Along with that, the
participation of foreign investors in Vietnam stock market was reduced to 5-6% in August (while
their normal contribution is around 10-11%), in the context that FED can possibly raise interest
rates and ECB will narrow down their quantity easing policies in September. The weak
participation of foreign investors, coupled with the recent dispute on global geopolitics, may not
result to a negative effect in the market, but could have a strong impact on the market sentiment,
especially in the “red” sessions.
Overall, it is unlikely that the market will break the current sideways trend soon. We think that
VNIndex will experience more fluctuation (from 760 to 800 points) in September. Improving
liquidity means the daily trading activities will be easier. Despite of that, there will be risk for
investors to use margin for trading on speculative stocks, especially in the overexciting sessions.
Meanwhile, given the support of macro stability (at least from the Government’s decisiveness), we
think that investors can stand a chance to accumulate stocks with sound fundamentals and have
a bright outlook in the second half of 2017. Besides, after a strong correction in August, relative
valuation of many stocks decreased to a more reasonable value. Therefore, the ones with P/E and
P/B lower than its peers may generate higher return to investors.
Table 5 : Key sectors performance
No Name % 1M Price Change % 1Y Price Change
Market Cap
(VND Billion)
ROA (%)
ROE
(%)
Basic P/E P/B
1 Retail 7.9 135.4 38,622 8.7 40.0 17.1 6.4
2 Insurance -2.3 8.2 59,020 4.6 10.6 20.9 2.3
3 Real Estate 3.3 25.6 254,030 2.3 6.5 25.0 3.4
4 Technology -1.6 41.5 32,360 8.7 16.1 13.2 2.3
5 Oil & Gas 4.2 20.0 90,781 5.7 16.5 15.9 3.4
6 Financial Services -1.9 37.5 46,374 4.4 14.8 12.5 1.8
7 Utilities -1.9 28.2 167,330 11.2 18.8 14.1 2.7
8 Travel & Leisure 2.0 5.9 51,740 4.9 60.0 14.0 6.7
9 Industrial Goods & Services -1.1 22.2 79,369 0.0 15.7 12.7 1.8
10 Personal & Household Goods -0.1 28.9 32,326 9.9 26.3 15.2 3.7
11 Chemicals -1.3 18.7 46,055 8.5 13.1 10.7 1.4
12 Banks -4.2 17.5 443,759 1.1 14.6 14.6 1.8
13 Automobiles & Parts -3.1 -12.7 15,767 6.6 12.2 12.8 1.4
14 Basic Resources 6.5 55.4 107,167 13.7 18.5 7.0 1.9
15 Food & Beverage 1.4 50.5 525,444 8.6 31.8 23.7 6.5
16 Media -0.7 25.8 12,225 6.5 3.8 16.5 1.9
17 Construction & Material 4.7 95.3 188,810 5.6 19.4 17.5 4.1
18 Health Care -2.7 90.6 34,985 12.8 21.2 18.3 4.0
17. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 17
Source: FiinPro
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Despite our concern on VNIndex’s current rally, we believe that the market can go further in the
intermediate- and long-term. Stable macro environment, improving manufacturing, and higher
consumer confident index and higher retail sales will push the business activities to grow. Hence,
we think construction, building materials (granite tiles and steel), real estate in mid-end segment,
banking, and some other consumer-related industries will have positive business results in the H2
2017. Besides, the low rate of deposit has lasted for months and may not recover soon. This would
justify higher valuation for companies with a strong history of cash dividend payments or high
dividend yields.
Table 6: Companies with Expected High Dividend Yields
Demand on construction comes not only from the residential housing but also from other
segments such as hospitality real estate, commercial and office building, workshop and
industrial projects, infrastructure, etc. Therefore, although the housing segment is predicted to
be saturated in the next few years, it could still bring about increasing construction demand. We
expect that constructors who are pioneers in diversifying backlogs towards other market
segments will outperform their peers. Among the listed construction companies, we have
noticed several signs of CTD reforming its revenue structure as well. Even though residential
segment still accounts for around 70% of the company’s total revenue, the larger contribution
from commercial and office and industrial sectors will help CTD to diversify its backlog portfolio.
By the end of Q2 2017, CTD’s backlog is around VND26,181 billion (+18% YoY) and we expect the
backlog could grow even higher following FDI’s trend and the expansion of domestic
manufacturers.
18. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 18
Figure 19: Growth in Construction Value
Source: MOC
The acceleration of construction in H2 2017 will push the demand on construction materials,
especially in the tile industry. The consumers’ taste is changing; low quality and small size
ceramics have been replaced by granite. Given its low penetration ratio at 13%, there is large room
for granite to grow in the upcoming years. Among the listed firms, we prefer VIT and CVT due to
their large market share (11% and 5%, respectively) and expansion capacity. Given the growth
story of granite, it is worth noticing that CVT is investing in a new production line, which is
expected to add 25% more to the firm’s total capacity.
In eight months of 2017, manufacturing growth was 10.8%, which is higher than the same period
of last year growth of 10.4%. Some industries including Steel, Plastic, Paper, Textile and Fertilizer,
recorded impressive growth. Although production has been growing, we recognize that some
industries such as Plastic, Textile or Fertilizer, have less power to actively control their output price.
In this context, steel firms have enjoyed not only the Government’s protection policies but also
the uptrend of steel price since mid-Q2 2017. As a result, profit margin of steel players like HPG,
HSG, and NKG could extend further in H2 2017. In the the long-term view, we prefer HPG over the
others due to its close value chain from upstream to downstream and its growth capacity prospect
from Dung Quat Steel Complex.
For the banking industry, the story comes not only from the credit growth but also from provision
for expenses/reversals. Given the effective of Decision 42, it is expected that the credit institutes
can have more authority to foreclose and dispose collateral. It shoud take a long time to see the
results, but the expectation has been reflected on the stock price. Therefore, although having
sound fundamental from both core business and restructure progress, ACB’s relative valuation is
no longer cheap compared to MBB and CTG currently.
Table 7: PBR After Adjusted for VAMC’s Special Bonds
ACB BID CTG MBB VCB
Market Price @Sep 5th (VND) 29,000 20,950 18,900 23,350 38,150
Book value @30/06/2017 (VND bil) 14,884 48,140 60,320 27,309 52,110
Net special bond @30/06/2017 (VND bil) 883 13,789 4,056 1,044 0
BV (excl. special bond) (VND bil) 14,002 34,351 56,264 26,265 52,110
BVPS (VND) 15,097 14,081 16,200 15,945 14,484
BVPS (excl. special bond) (VND) 14,202 10,048 15,111 15,335 14,484
PBR (x) 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.5 2.6
PBR (excl. special bond) (x) 2.0 2.1 1.3 1.5 2.6
In Aug 2017, we also released three company analysis reports, including QNS, PTB, and NLG.
Investors who are interested in these stocks can find the full report on our website at Company
reports.
5.506%
5.844%
6.286%
6.649% 6.675%
6.597%
6.545%
6.468%
6.390%
5.00%
5.200%
5.400%
5.600%
5.800%
6.00%
6.200%
6.400%
6.600%
6.800%
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
Construction value (thousand billion dong) Growth (%)
19. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 19
Tickers Target Price
(VND)
Overall Opinions
QNS 87,400
Quang Ngai Sugar (QNS) is a leader in Vietnamese soymilk segment with 85% market share. We believe demand for
soymilk, especially branded products, is still viable thanks to the consumer preference for quality and convenient
products. Accordingly, we expect a 10% growth in this segment in upcoming years.
Regarding sugar segment, QNS owns An Khe plant, the biggest sugar plant in Vietnam with the capacity of 18,000 tonnes
sugarcane per day. However, the raw material has not been sufficient for its full capacity. Moreover, domestic market will
face many challenges when the government removes the tariff quota for sugar, following the agreement of ATIGA from
the beginning of 2018.
Thanks to the dominating position in the soymilk market, QNS has been able to grow its revenue and net profit
consistently. However, we have seen a rising competition since 2016, which puts the pressure on the selling price and
slowdowns the growth. This explains the underperformance of its stock price after being listed. Nevertheless, in our
opinion, the company still have “room” for improvement as long as the BOD shows more efforts. Thus, we forecast QNS’s
net profit to decrease slightly in 2017, but it should recover in 2018.
Forecasted EPS for 2017 and 2018 are VND 6,460 and VND 7,461 respectively.
PTB 138,700 Regarding the H1 2017 performance and the three main business segments' outlook, we have slightly revised upward
from the latest update. Revenue and PAT in 2017 are estimated at VND4,174 billion (+ 14% YoY) and VND359 billion (+
35% YoY), respectively. In 2018, we expect that PTB's sales will grow by 15% YoY to VND4,875 billion and PAT will be
VND427 billion, equivalent to EPS of VND11,860. Even though stable growth rates and annual dividends attract investors,
we would carefully consider PTB's future growth prospects, which are still not commensurate with the investment
expansion.
Forecasted EPS for 2017 and 2018 are VND 11,716 and VND 11,860 respectively.
NLG 30,000 Nam Long Investment Joint Stock Co (NLG - HSX) is among the few real estate developers in the affordable housing
segment and has been successful with Ehome brand. After establishing a solid position in the affordable housing
segment, NLG's strategy has shifted to mid-end housing with mini-villas and townhouses since 2015. This is considered
as a wise movement of NLG’s BOD to meet the rising demand of increasing middle-class consumers in Ho Chi Minh City,
to boost NLG’s net profit margin and maximize their land bank’s value. In addition, these projects have been developed
under joint ventures, not only to ease NLG’s pressure on required investment capital, but also to take advantage of their
partners’ management and development experience.
Forecasted EPS for 2017 and 2018 are VND 3,507 and VND 3,472 respectively.
Figure 20: RongViet Research’s stock pick
Source: RongViet Research; Price @ Sep 5th, 2017
Total return = Expected price appreciation plus expected dividend yield in next twelve months
22. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 22
MACRO WATCH IN AUGUST
Inflation Increased in August Continuous Improving in Retail Sales
Source: GSO, RongViet Research Source: GSO, RongViet Research
PMI Slightly Increased in August Trade Growth Started to Decline
Source: GSO, RongViet Research Source: GSO, RongViet Research
Stable Foreign Capital Winning Volume Decreased Sharply in August
Source: FII, RongViet Research Source: VBMA, RongViet Research
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
05/2017
06/2017
07/2017
08/2017
Headline inflation Core inflation
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
0%
4%
8%
12%
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
05/2017
06/2017
07/2017
08/2017
Value (bn dong) Growth (ex inflation)
-2.0
.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
05/2017
06/2017
07/2017
08/2017
50
51
52
53
54
55
IP (3m Moving Average) PMI
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
05/2017
06/2017
07/2017
08/2017
Export Import
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2017
05/2017
06/2017
07/2017
08/2017
Implemented capital Registered capital
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016
01/2017
02/2017
03/2017
04/2007
05/2007
06/2017
07/2017
08/2017
Winning volume
Offering volume
Winning/Offering Ratio
23. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 23
INDUSTRY INDEX
Level 1 Industry Movement Level 2 Industry Movement
Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research
Industry PE Comparison Industry PB Comparison
Source: RongViet Research Source: RongViet Research
0%
3%
6%
3%
-4%
1%
-4%
4%
1%
-2%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Technology
Industrials
Oil&Gas
ConsumerServices
HealthCare
ConsumerGoods
Banks
BasicMaterials
Financials
Utilities
7%
-5%
3%
0%
6%
-2%
-2%
0%
-2%
-1%
1%
-4%
-5%
5%
1%
0%
5%
-4%
-6%-4%-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Retail
Insurance
Real Estate
Technology
Oil & Gas
Financial Services
Utilities
Travel & Leisure
Industrial Goods & Services
Personal & Household Goods
Chemicals
Banks
Automobiles & Parts
Basic Resources
Food & Beverage
Media
Construction & Materials
Health Care
13
14
16 16
18
19
15
08
20
14
17
13
Technology
Industrials
Oil&Gas
ConsumerServices
HealthCare
ConsumerGoods
Banks
BasicMaterials
Financials
Utilities
HSX
HNX
02
03 03
06
04
06
02 02
03
03
04
02
Technology
Industrials
Oil&Gas
ConsumerServices
HealthCare
ConsumerGoods
Banks
BasicMaterials
Financials
Utilities
HSX
HNX
24. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 24
ANALYSIS & INVESTMENT ADVISORY DEPARTMENT
Truc Doan
Head of Research
truc.dtt@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 62992006 (1308)
Ha My Tran
Deputy Manager
my.tth@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 62992006 (1309)
• Macroeconomics
Lam Nguyen
Senior Strategist
lam.ntp@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 6299 2006 (1313)
• Banking
• Conglomerates
Thien Bui
Senior Analyst
thien.bv@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 6299 2006 (1321)
• Market Strategy
• Financial Services
• Personal Goods
Hoang Nguyen
Senior Analyst
hoang.nh@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 6299 2006 (1319)
• Transportation
• Industrial Real Estates
Hieu Nguyen
Senior Analyst
hieu.nd@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 6299 2006 (1514)
• Market Strategy
• Pharmaceuticals
• Durable Household Goods
Duong Lai
Senior Analyst
duong.ld@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 6299 2006 (1522)
• Real Estates
• Building Materials
Vu Tran
Senior Analyst
vu.thx@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 6299 2006 (1518)
• Oil & Gas
• Food & Beverage
Trinh Nguyen
Analyst
trinh.nh@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 6299 2006 (1331)
• Steel
• Construction
• Technology
Quang Vo
Analyst
quang.vv@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 6299 2006 (1517)
• Market Strategy
• Basic Materials
• Personal Goods
Son Phan
Analyst
son.pnt@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 6299 2006 (1519)
• Utilities
• Natural Rubber
Thu Le
Analyst
thu.lta@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 6299 2006 (1521)
• Automobiles and Parts
Ha Tran
Assistant
ha.ttn@vdsc.com.vn
+ 84 28 6299 2006 (1526)
RONG VIET SECURITIES
CORPORATION
Floor 1-2-3-4, Viet Dragon Tower,
141 Nguyen Du St. - Dist 1 – HCMC
Tel: (84 28) 6299 2006
Fax: (84 28) 6291 7986
Email: info@vdsc.com.vn
Website: www.vdsc.com.vn
Hanoi Branch
2C Thai Phien St., Hai Ba Trung Dist,
Hanoi
Tel: (84 24) 6288 2006
Fax: (84 24) 6288 2008
Can Tho Branch
95-97-99 Vo Van Tan – Ninh
Kieu - Can Tho
Tel: (84 292) 381 7578
Fax: (84 292) 381 8387
Nha Trang Branch
50Bis Yersin St, Nha Trang
Tel: (84 258) 382 0006
Fax: (84 258) 382 0008
25. Rong Viet Securities Corporation – Investment Strategy Report September 2017 25
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