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Course 4: NFL Strategy
TE/K/DEF Selection for Cash Games
www.rotoql.com
1
I. TE Selection
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
TE Selection: Key Stats
3
Stat Notes
Targets Notes WR opportunity regardless matchup
YpC (Yards per
Carry/Catch)
Great indicator of performance and perceived ownership
Playcall Distribution Better offenses get more opportunities to score
DvP Matchup Great matchups indicate consistent and chalk plays
Salary Bargain values available at WR position
Value FPTs / Salary
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
TE Selection: Using Vegas
4
Stat Notes
Game Flow How a game is expected to play out via Vegas
Spread Larger spread = higher chance of blowout
Over / Under Higher O/U = high possibility of fantasy points
Team Projected Points Relate to opponent helps predict game flow
Snap Count Indicates how much opportunity a player gets during a game
Red Zone Targets Touches inside the scoring area
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
TE CV
5
Source: 4for4
Note: data is from 2013-2014 NFL Season
Coefficient of Variation (CV)
Position
CV by Position
Coefficient of Variation (CV) -- the standard deviation of a data set divided by its mean. CVs can be
used as a measure of consistency.
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Low Cost TE Performance
6
Source: FantasyLabs
Note: data is from 2014 NFL Season
For TE priced less than $4K, how often do they miss, hit or double the their
expected fantasy output?
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Plus/Minus for Big Spread Games
7
Source: Fantasy Labs
Note: data is from 2014-2015 NFL Season
Position
Plus/Minus
Plus/Minus by Position for Games with Double Digit Spreads
II. Kicker Selection
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Kicker Selection: Key Stats
9
Stat Notes
Weather Bad conditions will deter kicker’s accuracy
Team Proj. Points Indicates team’s predicted ability to score in a matchup
Pace Tracks seconds per play in different situations (Football Outsiders)
Red Zone Inefficiency Inability to convert in scoring area leads to FG opportunities
Salary Usually looking for a cheap kicker to fill out the roster
Value Try to get best FPTs per salary as possible
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
K CV
10
Source: 4for4
Note: data is from 2013-2014 NFL Season
Coefficient of Variation (CV)
Position
CV by Position
Coefficient of Variation (CV) -- the standard deviation of a data set divided by its mean. CVs can be
used as a measure of consistency.
III. Defense Selection
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Defense Selection: Key Stats
12
Stat Notes
Weather Bad conditions can boost DST’s fantasy ceiling
Opposing Matchup RotoQL offers defensive ranking based on FPTs allowed
Opposing Sack Rate Shaky offensive line is a great target
Turnovers Ability to create interceptions, fumbles, DTDs
Opponent Turnovers Opposing team gives up interceptions, fumbles, DTDs
Value Most of the time looking for bargain prices
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Defense Selection: Using Vegas
13
● Vegas Projected Points Against
● Spread, Over / Under
● Game Flow
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
DST CV
14
Source: 4for4
Note: data is from 2013-2014 NFL Season
Coefficient of Variation (CV)
Position
CV by Position
Coefficient of Variation (CV) -- the standard deviation of a data set divided by its mean. CVs can be
used as a measure of consistency.
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Plus/Minus for Big Spread Games
15
Source: Fantasy Labs
Note: data is from 2014-2015 NFL Season
Position
Plus/Minus
Plus/Minus by Position for Games with Double Digit Spreads
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
NFL Cash Game Lineup Example
Source: DFS Mancave
16
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
More Resources
Visit our Support Center to watch video tutorials on how to use RotoQL
• rotoql.zendesk.com
Monitor daily fantasy news, strategy and advice articles at the QL Wire
• rotoql.com/qlwire
If you are new to DFS or just need a refresher on the fundamentals, visit RotoU
• rotoql.com/university
17

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NFL: TE/K/DEF Selection for Cash Games

  • 1. Course 4: NFL Strategy TE/K/DEF Selection for Cash Games www.rotoql.com 1
  • 3. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com TE Selection: Key Stats 3 Stat Notes Targets Notes WR opportunity regardless matchup YpC (Yards per Carry/Catch) Great indicator of performance and perceived ownership Playcall Distribution Better offenses get more opportunities to score DvP Matchup Great matchups indicate consistent and chalk plays Salary Bargain values available at WR position Value FPTs / Salary
  • 4. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com TE Selection: Using Vegas 4 Stat Notes Game Flow How a game is expected to play out via Vegas Spread Larger spread = higher chance of blowout Over / Under Higher O/U = high possibility of fantasy points Team Projected Points Relate to opponent helps predict game flow Snap Count Indicates how much opportunity a player gets during a game Red Zone Targets Touches inside the scoring area
  • 5. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com TE CV 5 Source: 4for4 Note: data is from 2013-2014 NFL Season Coefficient of Variation (CV) Position CV by Position Coefficient of Variation (CV) -- the standard deviation of a data set divided by its mean. CVs can be used as a measure of consistency.
  • 6. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Low Cost TE Performance 6 Source: FantasyLabs Note: data is from 2014 NFL Season For TE priced less than $4K, how often do they miss, hit or double the their expected fantasy output?
  • 7. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Plus/Minus for Big Spread Games 7 Source: Fantasy Labs Note: data is from 2014-2015 NFL Season Position Plus/Minus Plus/Minus by Position for Games with Double Digit Spreads
  • 9. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Kicker Selection: Key Stats 9 Stat Notes Weather Bad conditions will deter kicker’s accuracy Team Proj. Points Indicates team’s predicted ability to score in a matchup Pace Tracks seconds per play in different situations (Football Outsiders) Red Zone Inefficiency Inability to convert in scoring area leads to FG opportunities Salary Usually looking for a cheap kicker to fill out the roster Value Try to get best FPTs per salary as possible
  • 10. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com K CV 10 Source: 4for4 Note: data is from 2013-2014 NFL Season Coefficient of Variation (CV) Position CV by Position Coefficient of Variation (CV) -- the standard deviation of a data set divided by its mean. CVs can be used as a measure of consistency.
  • 12. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Defense Selection: Key Stats 12 Stat Notes Weather Bad conditions can boost DST’s fantasy ceiling Opposing Matchup RotoQL offers defensive ranking based on FPTs allowed Opposing Sack Rate Shaky offensive line is a great target Turnovers Ability to create interceptions, fumbles, DTDs Opponent Turnovers Opposing team gives up interceptions, fumbles, DTDs Value Most of the time looking for bargain prices
  • 13. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Defense Selection: Using Vegas 13 ● Vegas Projected Points Against ● Spread, Over / Under ● Game Flow
  • 14. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com DST CV 14 Source: 4for4 Note: data is from 2013-2014 NFL Season Coefficient of Variation (CV) Position CV by Position Coefficient of Variation (CV) -- the standard deviation of a data set divided by its mean. CVs can be used as a measure of consistency.
  • 15. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Plus/Minus for Big Spread Games 15 Source: Fantasy Labs Note: data is from 2014-2015 NFL Season Position Plus/Minus Plus/Minus by Position for Games with Double Digit Spreads
  • 16. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com NFL Cash Game Lineup Example Source: DFS Mancave 16
  • 17. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com More Resources Visit our Support Center to watch video tutorials on how to use RotoQL • rotoql.zendesk.com Monitor daily fantasy news, strategy and advice articles at the QL Wire • rotoql.com/qlwire If you are new to DFS or just need a refresher on the fundamentals, visit RotoU • rotoql.com/university 17