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MLB: To Chalk or Not to Chalk

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MLB: To Chalk or Not to Chalk

  1. 1. Course 3: MLB Strategy To Chalk or Not to Chalk www.rotoql.com 1
  2. 2. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Lesson Overview ● Chalk overview ● When to go chalk ● When to fade chalk ● How to implement chalking 2
  3. 3. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Chalk Overview What are chalk players? ● “Obvious” favorites that are highly owned and likely to perform well ● If 7 out of 10 lineups in a tournament have Bryce Harper, he would be considered to be 70% owned How do chalk players affect cash lineups? ● Chalk players are considered safe picks, so several chalk plays could be included How do chalk players affect tournament lineups? ● Don’t ignore chalk, but consider going against the grain in some slots 3
  4. 4. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Factors Behind Ownership Source: DFS Mancave 4 Ownership Factor Notes Vegas Over / Under, Predicted Runs Obvious Matchups Hitters vs. Strasberg will likely be low-owned Value Price changes, disparity between FanDuel / DraftKings Top Hitter and Pitcher Parks Coors, Minnesota, Texas (Hitters) PNC, Marlins (Pitchers) QL Wire Content “Expert picks” usually lead to higher-owned
  5. 5. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Streaky Play’s Effect on DK Ownership Historically Source: DraftKings Playbook ● Historically on DraftKings, a player is owned 3% after below-average game ● However, the average ownership jumps to 4% after one game of above-average play ● That trend continues with each successive above average performance 5
  6. 6. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Predicting Player Ownership Source: Fantasy Labs Statistic Correlation with Actual Ownership % Batting Order 0.1328 Projected Runs 0.1868 Player Salary 0.2891 ● None are strongly correlated but player salary is the strongest indicator (perfect correlation has a value of 1) ● Predicting ownership is an imperfect exercise 6
  7. 7. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com When to Go Chalk Saahil’s $10,000 Lineup - FanDuel Grand Slam ● Clayon Kershaw ($12,900, 35.5% owned) ● Derek Dietrich ($2,100, 49.9% owned) ● Jonathan Villar ($2,800, 21% owned) ● Domingo Santana ($2,500, 10.4% owned) Why did it make sense to go chalk here? 7
  8. 8. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com When to Go Chalk Best Practice Example Top player with great matchup Kershaw vs San Diego Padres Backup player moves into leadoff spot Marlins’ Derek Dietrich replaces Dee Gordon Correlated players Milwaukee’s Santana and Villar Dietrich Gordon Villar Santana 8
  9. 9. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com When to Fade Chalk ● Baseball is a high volatility sport ○ Value in fading chalk ● Ex. When Ownership > Probability of High Output ○ Dietrich’s probability to outperform value is 20% ○ His projected ownership is 40% ○ Result: Fade him Dietrich 9

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