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MLB: Advanced Tournament Strategy

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MLB: Advanced Tournament Strategy

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MLB: Advanced Tournament Strategy

  1. 1. Course 3: MLB Strategy Advanced Tournament Strategy www.rotoql.com 1
  2. 2. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Lesson Overview Desired outcome is to create a lineup with a high ceiling. We can accomplish this through the following levers: I. Pitcher selection: key stats, vegas, weather & ballpark factors II. Hitter selection: key stats, vegas, weather & ballpark factors III. Lineup construction: stacking, multiple lineups, using an optimizer 2
  3. 3. I. Pitcher Selection 3
  4. 4. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Pitcher Selection: Key Elements Stat Notes Vegas Data Team expected runs, win probability wOBA Against Larger sample size is more indicative Strikeouts / Opp. K/9, K/9 opposition Ballpark/Weather Park factors, wind, avoid any chance of rain Pitch Count Also combined with innings pitched 4
  5. 5. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Pitcher Selection: Key Stats Source: Fantasy Labs 5
  6. 6. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Pitcher Selection: Using Vegas Stat Notes Team Totals Totals take into account many variables including weather, park factors etc.. Player Props They are not always accurate but can provide a general estimate First 5 Innings Help eliminate bullpen influence 6
  7. 7. II. Hitter Selection 7
  8. 8. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Hitter Selection: Key Elements Stat Notes Coors Field Largest run and HR rate Batting Order Top of order tends to be high owned Home Run Ability High power = high ceiling Handedness Splits Matchup wOBA by RotoQL Temperature/Wind Pay less attention to rain-outs 8
  9. 9. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Hitter Selection: Using Vegas Stat Notes Team Expected Runs Suggest predicted runs scored Over/Under Best games with high predicted FPTs Player Props Usually don’t get released until the day of game 9
  10. 10. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com DK Fantasy Points vs Batting Order Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy 10
  11. 11. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Average Batting by Split Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy 11
  12. 12. www.rotoql.com Source: Sports Baseball America www.rotoql.com Hitter Selection: Weather & Ballpark Factors 12
  13. 13. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Hitter Selection: Weather & Ballpark Factors 13
  14. 14. III. Lineup Construction 14
  15. 15. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Tournament Lineup Construction: Key Elements Stat Notes Salary Distribution FanDuel vs. DraftKings differences Chalk Players “Obvious” favorites Predicting Ownership Recent performance, matchup, value among factors Stacking High predicted ceiling Multiple Lineups Be aware of the exposure risks 15
  16. 16. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Pitcher Selection: Salary Distribution Source: Daily Roto 16
  17. 17. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Chalk Players What are chalk players? ● “Obvious” favorites that are highly owned and likely to perform well ● If 7 out of 10 lineups in a tournament have Bryce Harper, he would be considered to be 70% owned How do chalk players affect tournament lineups? ● Want to include chalk in certain situations Example: ○ Kershaw’s probability to be a top scoring pitcher is 80% ○ His projected ownership is 60% ○ Result: Play him ● Note: May not want to go all chalk if your lineup is a duplicate, as that is a huge loss in EV 17
  18. 18. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Predicting Ownership Source: DFS Mancave 18
  19. 19. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Stacking Examples: ● Split Stacks - 5 v 3, 4 v 4 ● Mini Stacks - 4 v 3, 3 v 3, etc. ● Popular - Coors Stacks, Batting 1-5 spots ● Value Stacks - Less Heralded Offenses Keep in Mind ● Stack the Maximum ● More Valuable on FanDuel - RBI scoring ● Be Mindful of % Total Salary DraftKings FanDuel Allowed Stack Size Up to 5 players Up to 4 players 19
  20. 20. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Stack Size vs Outcome [DraftKings] Source: DraftKings Playbook 20
  21. 21. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com The Case for Multiple Tournament Lineups Source: Chris Vox & Thomas Fuller via All In Mag Percentile Finish (FD = blue, DK= red) Number of Lineups 21

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