The document analyzes the three most valuable position players in MLB based on projected on-field performance and future contracts from 2017-2021. It describes the methodology, including statistical projections of WAR, comparable player contracts, and adjustments for changes to the strike zone. The analysis concludes that Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, and Mike Trout are the top three most valuable players due to their projected WAR production, years of team control, and offensive profiles. Seager ranks first with a projected total surplus value of $311.9 million over five years.
2. Table of Contents
1.Preliminary Process – Find the original pool of players
2.Statistical Analysis – Projecting Future Performance
3.MarketValue – Comparable players; predict future contracts
4.Risks – Identify potential pitfalls
5.Identification – Five MostValuable Position Players
6.Case Study – Analysis of the final cut
7.The FinalThree
3. Preliminary Process
• Step 1: Identify the original pool of players
– Position playerWAR leaders
– Future and recent top prospects
• Step 2: Build a database of 20 possible players
– Name,Team, Age, Seasons Played, Games Played,WAR
over last three seasons (if applicable)
5. Projecting Future WAR
R2
= .91
Database of players
from 1986 - 2016
WAR = -3.9352 + 36*(age) - .0062*(age2
)
6. Statistical Analysis
Apply the percentage change
from year to year to each
player
Use the average of the last
two seasons of WAR for each
player
7. Example: Nolan Arenado
Age at 2017 Opening Day: 25
2015 WAR: 4.5
2016 WAR: 5.2
(5.2 + 4.5) / 2 = 4.9 WAR
2017 projection: 4.9 * (slope change from “24 to 25”)
= 4.9 * (1.049073) = 5.1 WAR
2018 projection: 5.1 * (slope change from “25 to “26”)
= 5.1 * (1.036205) = 5.3 WAR
Process repeated through the 2021 season
8. Converting WAR Into Dollars
$7 million per marginal win in 2017
5% increase each year.
Nolan Arenado:
–2017: 5.1 predicted WAR * ($7,000,000) = $35,616,028.35
–2018: 5.3 predicted WAR * ($7,350,000) = $38,750,766.66
–Continue through 2021
–Add all five dollar figures to calculate total 5-year future value
in terms of WAR
–Over next 5 seasons: 26.7 WAR and $207,276,574.20 Production
Value
9. Projecting Future Salary
Step 1: Identify Comparable Players
Comparable Player Qualifications:
-Same Position
-Within 3 years of age at time of breakout/peak
- Peak/Breakout seasons within 1.5 WAR
10. League Projected Salary Increase
Similar to the Qualifying
Offer, we used the average
of the top 125 contracts
over the last 10 years
We then created a linear
model to predict future
increases
• R2
value of .96
• Avg. Salary = -1.14B +
573,300*(year)
11. Example: Manny Machado
Comparable Players: Pablo Sandoval and Kyle Seager
• Machado entered 1st
year of arbitration after 6.8 WAR
season
• Sandoval entered 1st
year of arbitration after 5.3 WAR
season
• Seager entered 1st
year of arbitration after 5.4 WAR
season
• Machado (24), Sandoval (25), Seager (27)
• All play third base
12. Projecting Arbitration
• Use the comparable
player salaries during
similar career points
• Calculate the
percentage of the QO
that players made in
those years
• Adjust the current
player’s salary to
reflect the percent
change
14. Final Adjustment
If Machado’s production was equal to Seager or Sandoval, we
would expect Machado to receive same percentage of the QO.
In order to adjust for the difference in production of the current
player, we then multiplied the projected salary by the percent
difference in WAR over the three previous seasons.
21. Kris Bryant – Cubs 3B/OF
TOTAL SURPLUS VALUE:
$258,096,445.52
22. Corey Seager – Dodgers SS
TOTAL SURPLUS VALUE:
$311,915,858.51
23. Sample Size Analysis
A balancing act between younger and older players
Younger – can be paid at a discount, but, less of a track record
Older – command more money, but, proven track record
Variance formula
Mean = (career WAR) / (career seasons played)
Divided by (# of games played) – 1
24. Fielding Profile
Player UZR DRS
Lindor 20.8 17
Betts 17.8 32
Bryant 5.3 (3B) / 6.2 (OF) 9
Trout -0.3 6
Seager 10.6 0
The players that derive the most value from their defense are
Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts.
FanGraphs uses UZR as its main component of WAR, and all five
players are within 20 runs of each other.
Assuming the value of one win is 10 runs, the most WAR defense
would likely account for is two wins.
25. Defensive Metric Variability
According to the FanGraphs glossary, there is a high
level of variability in UZR. For example, UZR is
given a five-run error range in either direction.
Therefore, a UZR of +10 could be either +5 or +15.
Because FanGraphs’ WAR rating uses defensive
metrics that are less exact to evaluate, we believe
that offensive performance should be weighted
more heavily than defense in terms of predicting
future performance.
26. 2016 Player Profiles
Player Soft % Med % Hard % wRC+ wOBA
Trout 12.0 46.3 41.7 171 .418
Bryant 17.0 42.7 40.3 149 .396
Seager 12.7 47.6 39.7 137 .372
Betts 17.4 49.2 33.4 135 .379
Lindor 17.2 55.2 27.5 112 .340
Mike Trout has the best wRC+, Hard Hit %, and wOBA
There seems to be a slight correlation between
Hard Hit % and wRC+
27. Accounting for Changes in the Game
In late May, ESPN reported that MLB’s Competition
Committee agreed to raise the strike zone.
The Strike Zone is to be moved to the top of the hitter’s
knees from “the hollow beneath the kneecap” currently.
With fastball velocity continuing to increase, we believe
that this will result in more pitchers challenging hitters
up in the zone.
The “bottom of the zone” will no longer belong to
pitchers.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33. Tying It All Together
We believe that Corey Seager and Kris Bryant are going
to be the most positively affected by an upward shift in
the strike zone.
Francisco Lindor is the player most likely to be
negatively affected by the strike zone shift.
We do not believe Mike Trout will be particularly
affected in any drastic way due to his five full seasons
of high-level performance. If pitchers have not figured
him out by now, there is no indication that they will.
34. Mike Trout
#3
1. TOTAL SURPLUS VALUE:
$236,765,429.42
2. Four years of Team Control
3. Best Hard Hit %, wOBA, and
wRC+
4. Projected 50.7 WAR between
2017-2021
35. 1. TOTAL SURPLUS VALUE:
$258,096,445.52
2. Five years of Team Control
3. 2nd
best Hard Hit % and 2nd
highest wRC+
4. Projected 41.4 WAR from
2017-2021
Kris Bryant
#2
36. 1. TOTAL SURPLUS VALUE:
$311,915,858.51
2. Five years of Team Control
3. 3rd
best Hard Hit % and 3rd
highest wRC+
4. Projected 47.2 WAR from
2017-2021
Corey Seager
#1
Editor's Notes
Survivorship Bias
95% confidence interval:
Understanding the lower and
upper bounds is crucial.
Assuming Machado, Sandoval and Seager are the same
2012: Carlos Correa 1st, Addison Russell 11th, Corey Seager 18th