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NBA: Point Guard Selection


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Saahil Sud, formerly Maxdalury, talks about best practices for selecting point guards (PGs) in daily fantasy (DFS).

Published in: Sports
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NBA: Point Guard Selection

  1. 1. Course 5: NBA Strategy Point Guard Selection 1
  2. 2. Lesson Overview 2 I. Point guard selection fundamentals II. Advanced point guard research tips
  3. 3. I. PG Fundamentals
  4. 4. Key Elements 4 Stat Notes Minutes Recent minutes will tell how much opportunity is available Pace Teams who run will have more chances to score Usage Rate Point guards control team usage rates Assist/Turnover Ratio Very important with turnovers subtracted on FD Defense vs. Position All-in-one matchup indicator, featured in RotoQL app Def. Personal Fouls Is the defender prone to giving up free points? Value When players are injured, use projected minutes to find value
  5. 5. Fantasy Production 5 Position Average FD Points* Point Guard 39.5 Shooting Guard 35.3 Small Forward 36.3 Power Forward 41.74 Center 42.93 * Data from 2015-2016 NBA season from Rotogrinders
  6. 6. Scoring System 6 Stat DK Points FD Points 2-point FG +2.0 PT +2.0 PT 3-point FG +3.5 PT +3.0 PT Free throw +1.0 PT +1.0 PT Rebound +1.25 PT +1.2 PT Assist +1.5 PT +1.5 PT Steal +2.0 PT +2.0 PT Block +2.0 PT +2.0 PT Turnover -0.5 PT -1.0 PT Double-double +1.5 PT N/A Triple-double +3.0 PT N/A Lineup 8 players (PG, SG, SF, PF, C, G, F, Util) 9 players (PG, PG, SG, SG, SF, SF, PF, PF, C) ● Point guards tend to have the ball in their hands ○ More opportunities ● Can rack up both assists and turnovers. ○ Avoid low AST / TO ratio ● Double doubles are more prevalent - points and assists
  7. 7. Avg stats put up by PG against every NBA team* 7 * Data from 2015-2016 NBA season from Rotowire
  8. 8. True DvP vs Defensive Rating & Pace 8 * Data from 2015-2016 NBA season from Fantasy Labs DR - opponent team’s defensive rating or points allowed per 100 possessions Pace - possessions per game
  9. 9. II. PG Research Tips for Lineups
  10. 10. Z-score 10Source: Wikipedia ● Z-score or standard score is the number of standard deviations a value is above the the average; z-scores can be positive, zero or negative. ● For sports, the z-score measures how much a player’s performance deviates from the average ● Because z-scores are normalized, we will use them compare different positions like centers and guards.
  11. 11. Z-Score by Position 11 Source: Rotoworld Note: data is from FanDuel’s 2014-15 NBA Season
  12. 12. Top 25 Z-Scores for Point Guards 12 Source: numberFire
  13. 13. PG-Usage 13 Source: Rotoworld Note: data is from FanDuel’s 2014-15 NBA Season 9-cat-z-scores Usage (%)
  14. 14. NBA Lineup Example 14* Data Provided from DraftKings