Henry Innis' and Dr Seyed Lajevardi's presentated 'Predicting ROI on Marketing Spend & Tactics'.

1. Translating marketing data
into commercial advantage
`

2. Marketing gets people, not P&Ls
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
(and we can work with that).

3. It hurts us in one place,
right where it counts...
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
Marketers are losing respect.

4. The Boardroom.
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020

5. Let’s talk in different terms.
Let’s get different results.
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020

6. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
Syl Saller,
Diageo Chief Marketing and Innovation Officer

7. The industry needs a
commercial wake up call.
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020

8. Projecting commercial value is as
important as having a great idea.
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020

9. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
1. Know what drives value.
2. Link metrics to models.
3. Understand unit economics
over budgets.
4. Take advantage of technology
to do it at scale.

10. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
Know what drives value by
understanding the commercial
outcome you’re achieving,
and how it creates revenue.

11. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
Eg. Large Logistics Company
12
Comms
Purchase

12. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
Eg. Large Ecommerce Project

13. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
1. Data.
2. Cost reductions.
3. Cost efficiencies.
4. Increasing ability to execute quickly.
The hidden drivers of value:

14. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
Half the money I spend
on advertising is wasted;
the trouble is I don't
know which half.
John Wanamaker, SEO Lead
1838–1922

15. Modern technology lets us use
massive datasets to infer cause
and drive more signals.
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020

16. How? Machine learning turns
your noisy data into clear signals
of commercial value.
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020

17. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
What is Machine Learning?
Features X
Target Y
Learner Model
New X
Predicted Y
Train Test

18. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
How machines learn
Supervised (inductive) learning
Training data includes desired outputs
Unsupervised learning
Training data does not include desired outputs

19. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
What is Deep Learning?
Hunger
Historical Data
Time
Money
Weather
Cook
Outcome
Snack
Uber Eats
Starve

20. We can simulate millions of
scenarios in seconds instead of
years, and identify which
scenario creates the best result.
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020

21. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
Why deep learning?
Deep Learning
Older learning algorithms
Performance
Amount of Data

22. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
Applying DL media mix modelling allows
for more sophisticated signals analysis.
Spend
Media Mix
Modelling
Performance
Activity
Brand
Reach
ROI
Etc, etc...
Channels
Sale

23. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
And allows us to automate analysis of
multiple factors to simulate ROI.
Market Actions
Analytics Engine
Market
Conditions
Competitive
Activities
Attribution
Optimisation
Allocation
Consumer
Response
Business
Outcomes

24. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
Letting us analyse different scenarios.
Media Investment
Social
Radio
Sponsorship
Media Mix
Model
ROI
Digital
Print
Promos
TV
Outdoor
Price
Consumer
Response

25. --- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020
And leading to data signals from multiple
sources (note: this varies from client to client).
Internet
$1.48
Other
Channels
$1.29
Trade
$1.14
Samples
$0.89
Radio
$0.76
TV
$0.60
Media ROI
Magazines
$1.37

26. Don’t answer one question.
Answer two.
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020

27. #1
Are you directing
the conversation?
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020

28. #2
Are you driving
return on investment?
--- Mutiny x MSIX / Predicting ROI / 20.02.2020

29. Thank you
`