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How Business can predict and stay ahead
of Rapid Changes leveraging Social Data
Marshall Sponder, Bogota, 10/30/13
How Business can predict and stay ahead of
Rapid Changes leveraging Social Data
Marshall Sponder, Bogota, 10/30/13
About WebMetricsGuru INC.
Gartner's 2013 Emerging Technologies hype cycle shows
what is hyped vs. realistic expectations

http://www.zdnet.com/gartners-2013-emerging-technologies-hype-cycle-focuses-on-humans-and-machines7000019564/
Predictive
personalization is
defined as the
ability to predict
customer behavior,
needs or wants and
tailor offers and
communications
very precisely.
- Seth Gottlieb

http://enterpriseresilienceblog.typepad.com/enterprise_resilience_man/2013/08/targeted-marketing-andpredictive-analytics-part-1.html
How likely will a brand's
offer resonate across social
media channels?
Micro-content by
its very nature is
rarely visited…..
increasing the
likelihood that
these individuals
will be equally
receptive.
- Tom Phillips

http://www.imediaconnection.com/content/27447.asp?id=27447
Which customers are mostly likely to
abandon your brand for a competitor?

http://blog.ad-tech.com/understanding-understanding-why-machine-learning-cant-work-withouthumans%E2%80%A8%E2%80%A8/
At the core of a
recommendation
engine is predictive
modeling. This
identifies and
mathematically
represents
underlying
relationships in
historical data in
order to explain the
data and make
predictions or
classifications about
future events.

http://practicalanalytics.wordpress.com/2012/01/05/analytics-case-study-schwan-foods/
What
determines
which
customers
are likely to
abandon
your brand
for a
competitor?

http://adage.com/article/news/dawn-relationship-era-marketing/231792/
All social efforts must flow
from an authentic sense of
purpose, not bogus
boilerplate.
Core values
cannot be faked,
at least not indefinitely.
http://adage.com/article/news/dawn-relationship-era-marketing/231792/
How is the investment in Big Data
Working out by Regions of the World?

http://www.tcs.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/Trends_Study/TCS-Big-Data-Global-Trend-Study-2013.pdf
Which
regions
have
benefited
the most
from “Big
Data”
initiatives?

http://www.tcs.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/Trends_Study/TCS-Big-Data-Global-Trend-Study-2013.pdf
Which
Industries
have
benefited
the most
from “Big
Data”
initiatives?
http://www.tcs.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/Trends_Study/TCS-Big-Data-Global-Trend-Study-2013.pdf
Social media “genotypes (behavioral markers)
can be employed to predict a user’s future
actions (on Twitter).
Every person has a
fixed set of interests,
called their socialmedia genotype,
which determines
their pattern of
behavior on networks
such as Twitter.
Once these genotypes
have been discovered,
they can be used to
predict an individual’s
future behavior.
Petko Bogdanov,
University of
California)
Source - http://arxiv.org/pdf/1307.0309.pdf
Ask the Right Questions to
obtain the Best Data
1. Use analytics to identify valuable
opportunities
2. Map the consumer decision journey
3. Invest in an automated algorithmic
marketing
http://enterpriseresilienceblog.typepad.com/enterprise_resilience_man/2013/08/targeted-marketing-andpredictive-analytics-part-1.html
Understand Your Target Audience Before
Investing In Marketing Campaigns

http://businessgross.com/2013/06/03/marketing-campaigns/
Identifying Data we can use to build models
supporting automation
Who will purchase your product in the future,
how much will they be wiling to spend on it?
Big Data has been used to inform mechanizing and
store placement decisions as well as monitor social
media for local comments of customers of a
particular store location.
Types of
Remarketing

http://www.netmining.com/pdf/Netmining-Mapping-Digital-Display-Landscape.pdf
Non Linear Travel purchasing journeys

Omni-Channel customer journey in travel industry, IBM
Mapping the Customer Journey should
provide context for your Brand customers

http://cdn.chiefmartec.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/5_stages_buyers_journey_600.png
Once you determine your audience you still
need to understand how to reach them

http://www.netmining.com/pdf/Netmining-Mapping-Digital-Display-Landscape.pdfYour text
Mapping Customer Touch points in a 2D or 3D Metrix
helps to define where a customer is in the Journey
(with the right questions and analysis).

http://www.pinterest.com/pin/21814379418653946/
Maturity Models help inform Brands on
Analytics “Next Steps” they should/could take

http://semphonic.blogs.com/
Internet of Things becomes Everything

Source: Cisco
Ascendancy of single devices handling all our data needs while providing better data for
analytics and ROI - smartphones/wearable computers containing CPU, storage, and
wireless connectivity "core" of the user experience.
Proliferation of wearable technology can provide
new ways for Brands to reach their audiences, find
new audiences. However, new Query languages will
need to evolve to fully leverage the technology
opportunity

http://www.clickz.com/clickz/column/2285267/convergence-analytics-needs-a-new-unified-query-language
Useful Social Data is easier to capture and more
abundant in some industries than others
US Data
Within
Industry
Uses
Cases
further
defines
what
Analytics
are
needed
http://www.netmining.com/pdf/Netmining-Mapping-Digital-Display-Landscape.pdf
We need a certain “Numbersense” in looking at data
- There are several predictions about Cable TV’s
demise, and the data collected suggests as much …
but

http://thefuturebuzz.com/2013/02/11/timeshifting-as-the-new-default/
Is Cable TV dying? It Depends …
With services
like Netflix,
Amazon
Instant, Google
Play and more
it would appear
that there is
absolutely no
reason to view
content on
someone else's
timetable.

http://thefuturebuzz.com/2013/08/15/the-slow-inevitable-death-of-cable-tv/
There are other interpretations suggesting Cable TV
Isn't Going Anywhere

https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/dont-believe-the-hype-cable-tv-isnt-going-anywhere-2012-3

Perhaps Cable TV is here to stay until someone figures out how to
break the bundled programming model.
Personalizing Audience Targeting needs a touch
point framework to be the most actionable

http://www.appboy.com/
Nine Upcoming
Predictions
1. Bogotá will Become South America's
Premier Tech Hub and remain so through 2020

Whatever the future is for cities, one thing is certain -- successful
cities will be defined by their ability to attract tech companies.
http://mashable.com/2013/09/24/bogota-tech/
2. Digital ROI attainable within 2 years due to
Rise Of "Real World Analytics” which is
mobile driven

This new world of cross-device tracking and offline analytics promises to
disrupt and change the way that marketers think about attribution.
http://marketingland.com/mobile-and-the-rise-of-real-world-analytics-60845
3. Gartner: Get Ready for the roaring
2020's 'Digital Industrial Economy'

Peter Sondergaard
(above), Gartner
SVP and head of
research, opening
the annual Gartner
Symposium.
We are entering a
new digital industry
economy where
everyone will be a
technology
company

http://forwardthinking.pcmag.com/show-reports/316608-gartner-get-ready-for-2020-s-digital-industrial-economy
4.Half of U.S. Workers Could Be replaced by
Computers NOW (2/3 by 2040)

A recent study out of Oxford University found that almost half of U.S. jobs are vulnerable to
being taken over by computers as artificial intelligence continues to improve. The study,
based on 702 detailed job listings, found that computers could already replace many
workers in transportation and logistics, production labor and administrative support.
http://singularityhub.com/2013/09/24/nearly-half-of-u-s-jobs-could-be-done-by-computers-study-says/
5. Predicting is the new black

http://venturebeat.com/2013/07/26/predicting-is-the-new-black-the-latest-trend-in-marketing/
6. Many of the predictions made on Big
Data will be wrong
7. Viral Marketing is finally understood and leveraged

Four Viral Campaigns mapped by Pulsarplatform.com
8. Encoding Sentiment will provide an
objective way to describe content

...
9. Analytics Encoding of Emotion will be
automated within 2 years

...
10. Marketing Frameworks will finally be
formalized and adopted

http://metricsman.wordpress.com/2013/06/12/a-new-framework-for-social-media-metrics-and-measurement/
Bonus: Rutgers University and Unruly launching Viral
Media Course launching by January 2014 covering all
that we know about Viral Media - how to create and
track it.

Contact me at @WebMetricsGuru or
marshall.Rutgers@gmail.com for the details about when the
course will formally launch.
Thank You!
¡Gracias!

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Congresso sm keynote -marshall sponder oct 30th 2013

  • 1. How Business can predict and stay ahead of Rapid Changes leveraging Social Data Marshall Sponder, Bogota, 10/30/13
  • 2. How Business can predict and stay ahead of Rapid Changes leveraging Social Data Marshall Sponder, Bogota, 10/30/13
  • 4. Gartner's 2013 Emerging Technologies hype cycle shows what is hyped vs. realistic expectations http://www.zdnet.com/gartners-2013-emerging-technologies-hype-cycle-focuses-on-humans-and-machines7000019564/
  • 5. Predictive personalization is defined as the ability to predict customer behavior, needs or wants and tailor offers and communications very precisely. - Seth Gottlieb http://enterpriseresilienceblog.typepad.com/enterprise_resilience_man/2013/08/targeted-marketing-andpredictive-analytics-part-1.html
  • 6. How likely will a brand's offer resonate across social media channels?
  • 7. Micro-content by its very nature is rarely visited….. increasing the likelihood that these individuals will be equally receptive. - Tom Phillips http://www.imediaconnection.com/content/27447.asp?id=27447
  • 8. Which customers are mostly likely to abandon your brand for a competitor? http://blog.ad-tech.com/understanding-understanding-why-machine-learning-cant-work-withouthumans%E2%80%A8%E2%80%A8/
  • 9. At the core of a recommendation engine is predictive modeling. This identifies and mathematically represents underlying relationships in historical data in order to explain the data and make predictions or classifications about future events. http://practicalanalytics.wordpress.com/2012/01/05/analytics-case-study-schwan-foods/
  • 10. What determines which customers are likely to abandon your brand for a competitor? http://adage.com/article/news/dawn-relationship-era-marketing/231792/
  • 11.
  • 12. All social efforts must flow from an authentic sense of purpose, not bogus boilerplate. Core values cannot be faked, at least not indefinitely. http://adage.com/article/news/dawn-relationship-era-marketing/231792/
  • 13. How is the investment in Big Data Working out by Regions of the World? http://www.tcs.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/Trends_Study/TCS-Big-Data-Global-Trend-Study-2013.pdf
  • 16. Social media “genotypes (behavioral markers) can be employed to predict a user’s future actions (on Twitter). Every person has a fixed set of interests, called their socialmedia genotype, which determines their pattern of behavior on networks such as Twitter. Once these genotypes have been discovered, they can be used to predict an individual’s future behavior. Petko Bogdanov, University of California) Source - http://arxiv.org/pdf/1307.0309.pdf
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Ask the Right Questions to obtain the Best Data 1. Use analytics to identify valuable opportunities 2. Map the consumer decision journey 3. Invest in an automated algorithmic marketing http://enterpriseresilienceblog.typepad.com/enterprise_resilience_man/2013/08/targeted-marketing-andpredictive-analytics-part-1.html
  • 21. Understand Your Target Audience Before Investing In Marketing Campaigns http://businessgross.com/2013/06/03/marketing-campaigns/
  • 22. Identifying Data we can use to build models supporting automation
  • 23. Who will purchase your product in the future, how much will they be wiling to spend on it?
  • 24. Big Data has been used to inform mechanizing and store placement decisions as well as monitor social media for local comments of customers of a particular store location.
  • 26. Non Linear Travel purchasing journeys Omni-Channel customer journey in travel industry, IBM
  • 27. Mapping the Customer Journey should provide context for your Brand customers http://cdn.chiefmartec.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/5_stages_buyers_journey_600.png
  • 28. Once you determine your audience you still need to understand how to reach them http://www.netmining.com/pdf/Netmining-Mapping-Digital-Display-Landscape.pdfYour text
  • 29. Mapping Customer Touch points in a 2D or 3D Metrix helps to define where a customer is in the Journey (with the right questions and analysis). http://www.pinterest.com/pin/21814379418653946/
  • 30. Maturity Models help inform Brands on Analytics “Next Steps” they should/could take http://semphonic.blogs.com/
  • 31. Internet of Things becomes Everything Source: Cisco Ascendancy of single devices handling all our data needs while providing better data for analytics and ROI - smartphones/wearable computers containing CPU, storage, and wireless connectivity "core" of the user experience.
  • 32. Proliferation of wearable technology can provide new ways for Brands to reach their audiences, find new audiences. However, new Query languages will need to evolve to fully leverage the technology opportunity http://www.clickz.com/clickz/column/2285267/convergence-analytics-needs-a-new-unified-query-language
  • 33. Useful Social Data is easier to capture and more abundant in some industries than others US Data
  • 35. We need a certain “Numbersense” in looking at data - There are several predictions about Cable TV’s demise, and the data collected suggests as much … but http://thefuturebuzz.com/2013/02/11/timeshifting-as-the-new-default/
  • 36. Is Cable TV dying? It Depends … With services like Netflix, Amazon Instant, Google Play and more it would appear that there is absolutely no reason to view content on someone else's timetable. http://thefuturebuzz.com/2013/08/15/the-slow-inevitable-death-of-cable-tv/
  • 37. There are other interpretations suggesting Cable TV Isn't Going Anywhere https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/dont-believe-the-hype-cable-tv-isnt-going-anywhere-2012-3 Perhaps Cable TV is here to stay until someone figures out how to break the bundled programming model.
  • 38. Personalizing Audience Targeting needs a touch point framework to be the most actionable http://www.appboy.com/
  • 40. 1. Bogotá will Become South America's Premier Tech Hub and remain so through 2020 Whatever the future is for cities, one thing is certain -- successful cities will be defined by their ability to attract tech companies. http://mashable.com/2013/09/24/bogota-tech/
  • 41. 2. Digital ROI attainable within 2 years due to Rise Of "Real World Analytics” which is mobile driven This new world of cross-device tracking and offline analytics promises to disrupt and change the way that marketers think about attribution. http://marketingland.com/mobile-and-the-rise-of-real-world-analytics-60845
  • 42. 3. Gartner: Get Ready for the roaring 2020's 'Digital Industrial Economy' Peter Sondergaard (above), Gartner SVP and head of research, opening the annual Gartner Symposium. We are entering a new digital industry economy where everyone will be a technology company http://forwardthinking.pcmag.com/show-reports/316608-gartner-get-ready-for-2020-s-digital-industrial-economy
  • 43. 4.Half of U.S. Workers Could Be replaced by Computers NOW (2/3 by 2040) A recent study out of Oxford University found that almost half of U.S. jobs are vulnerable to being taken over by computers as artificial intelligence continues to improve. The study, based on 702 detailed job listings, found that computers could already replace many workers in transportation and logistics, production labor and administrative support. http://singularityhub.com/2013/09/24/nearly-half-of-u-s-jobs-could-be-done-by-computers-study-says/
  • 44. 5. Predicting is the new black http://venturebeat.com/2013/07/26/predicting-is-the-new-black-the-latest-trend-in-marketing/
  • 45. 6. Many of the predictions made on Big Data will be wrong
  • 46. 7. Viral Marketing is finally understood and leveraged Four Viral Campaigns mapped by Pulsarplatform.com
  • 47. 8. Encoding Sentiment will provide an objective way to describe content ...
  • 48. 9. Analytics Encoding of Emotion will be automated within 2 years ...
  • 49. 10. Marketing Frameworks will finally be formalized and adopted http://metricsman.wordpress.com/2013/06/12/a-new-framework-for-social-media-metrics-and-measurement/
  • 50. Bonus: Rutgers University and Unruly launching Viral Media Course launching by January 2014 covering all that we know about Viral Media - how to create and track it. Contact me at @WebMetricsGuru or marshall.Rutgers@gmail.com for the details about when the course will formally launch.