Aarti Industries report Final

Aarti Industries Ltd.
BUY
- 1 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
STOCKPOINTER
Target Price `678 CMP `518 FY17E P/E 13.0x
Index Details Aarti Industries Ltd (Aarti) is strategically placed to exploit growth
opportunities in the chemical industry with products available across
value chains of benzene, toluene and ethylene, and nitro toluene. With
16 manufacturing units in Gujarat and Maharashtra, the company has
customers spread across the globe in 60 countries with a major
presence in USA, Europe, Japan and India. Aarti has aggressive
expansion plans not only in its specialty chemicals segment, but also in
the pharmaceuticals and the personal care space.
We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% to Rs 3,743 crore by
FY17 on the back of growth across all segments. The EBITDA margins
are expected to grow from 16% in FY15 to 19% by FY17 amounting to Rs
716.6 crore due to a reduction in operating expenditures and an
improvement in utilization levels. PAT is expected to grow at a robust
27% to Rs 333 crores by FY17 on account of lower interest costs and a
reduction in taxes.
We are upbeat on the prospects of Aarti given that:
 The Indian Specialty Chemical Industry is expected to reach $60-
70bn by 2020 from $23bn in 2013. With more than 80% of revenues
being accounted for by specialty chemicals, Aarti with its strong
knowledge of chlorine derivative chemistry and largest nitro-
chlorobenzene capacity in India, is best placed to maximize the
available opportunity. We expect the revenues to grow to Rs 3,060
crore by FY17 (CAGR of 13%).
 Debottlenecking and expansion activities have facilitated growth in
pharma volumes. Going forward, newly commissioned capacities
for Caffeine manufacturing, dedicated to meet the demand form
cola/energy drinks manufacturers, are expected to bring in
incremental revenues. We expect the revenue contribution of the
pharma segment to go up marginally to 11% over the next two
years. The segment revenues are expected to grow to Rs 415 crore
by FY17 (CAGR of 17%).
Sensex 26,034
Nifty 7,925
Industry Chemicals
Scrip Details
MktCap (` cr) 4,315
BVPS (`) 108.6
O/s Shares (Cr) 8.3
AvVol 6156
52 Week H/L 585/247
Div Yield (%) 1.1
FVPS (`) 5.0
Shareholding Pattern
Shareholders %
Promoters 54.8
DIIs 12.8
FIIs 3.0
Public 29.4
Total 100.0
AIL vs. Sensex
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Nov2014
Dec2014
Jan2015
Feb2015
Mar2015
Apr2015
May2015
Jun2015
Jul2015
Aug2015
Sep2015
Oct2015
Nov2015
AIL Sensex
of Key Financials (` in Cr)
Y/E Mar
Net
Sales
EBITDA PAT
EPS
(`)
EPS
Growth (%)
RONW
(%)
ROCE
(%)
P/E
(x)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
2014 2,632.5 401.5 151.6 18.3 7.9 17.0 17.5 28.3 14.0
2015 2,908.0 465.7 188.5 23.2 26.7 17.5 19.1 22.3 12.4
2016E 3,268.9 601.5 253.6 32.2 38.5 19.9 21.0 16.1 9.2
2017E 3,742.9 716.8 317.0 39.9 23.9 20.9 21.8 13.0 7.8

- 2 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
 In the home and personal care segment, Aarti is focusing on growing
its export market. We expert margins to recover to ~4% from the
current levels with pharma revenues growing at a CAGR of 14% from
Rs 206 crore in FY15 to Rs 268 crore by FY17.
We initiate coverage on Aarti Industries Ltd as a BUY with a price
objective of Rs 678 representing a potential upside of 31% from the CMP
of Rs 518 over a period of 15 months. We have used the PE multiple
approach to value Aarti Industries and assigned a multiple of 17x on FY17
EPS of Rs 39.9 to arrive at the target price. There exists scope for further
value unlocking post the demerger of its business units. We have not
built this into our valuation model and remains an upside risk to our
estimates.

- 3 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
 Company Background
Aarti is one of the leading suppliers to global manufacturers of dyes, pigments,
agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals and rubber chemical manufacturers. Aarti has
acquired world- class expertise in the development and manufacture of these
chemicals and is amongst the largest producers of benzene based basic and
intermediate chemicals in India.
 Key Investment Highlights
 Capacity expansion to bolster revenue growth
Over the next three years Aarti is undertaking a capex of ~Rs 500 crore to
expand capacities across benzene, toluene and ethylene, and nitro toluene
based value chains. These capacities are planned to capitalize on opportunities
emerging from
 growing end-user markets,
 capacity shut downs in developed markets and reduced global supplies
from China.
 firm off-take commitments from global agrochemical majors for exclusive
supply.
Aarti’s manufacturing facilities
Source Aarti Industries Ltd, Ventura Research

- 4 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
With the help of these enhanced capacities we expect revenues to grow at a
CAGR of 13.5% to Rs 3,742.9 crore by FY17. With several value added
products coming on stream we expect margin expansion of over 300 bps to 19%
by FY17. In turn, PAT is expected to experience faster growth of ~ 27% to Rs
333 crores over the same period aided by lower interest costs and lower tax
rates.
Expertise across Benzene based value chain
Source Aarti Industries Ltd, Ventura ResearchExpertise across Toluene based value chain
Source: Aarti Industries Ltd, Ventura Research

- 5 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
 Global leadership in the fast growing specialty chemicals
The Indian Specialty Chemical Industry is expected to reach $60-70bn by 2020
from $23bn in 2013. With more than 80% of revenues being accounted for by
specialty chemicals, Aarti with its strong knowledge about chlorine derivative
chemistry and largest nitro-chlorobenzene capacity in India, is best placed to
maximize the available opportunity.
Aarti has a varied product profile with cost competency and consistent supply
history, because of which the company enjoys the status of "Strategic Supplier" with
many MNCs. Aarti provides speciality chemicals to 800+ clients having end-user
applications in polymers, additives, pigments, paints, dyes, agro chemicals, etc The
company provides more than 100 products to MNCs globally (enjoying the top 5
ranks for most of its key products globally) and nearly half of the revenue from this
segment is export led.
Segmental sales over the years
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FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Speciality Chemicals Pharma Home & Personal Care
` Cr

- 6 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
The specialty chemical segment has grown at a CAGR of 18% from Rs 1,228 crore
in FY11 to Rs 2,397 in FY15. We expect the revenues to grow to Rs 3060 crore by
FY17 (CAGR of 13%). We expect the company to maintain its EBIT margin of 17-
17.5% for this segment over the next two years as well.
 Strong growth in pharmaceuticals segment is expected to continue
Currently pharmaceuticals contribute ~10% of the total revenue with exports
contributing ~51% (previous year 47%) to the pharmaceutical revenues. Of the
exports ~60% is to the lucrative regulated markets of USA and EU. Debottlenecking
and expansion activities have facilitated growth in pharma volumes. We expect the
revenue contribution of the pharma segment to go up marginally to 11% over the
next two years.
The pharmaceutical segment revenues have clocked a CAGR of 23% from Rs 131
crore in FY11 to Rs 303 in FY15. The segment revenues are expected to grow to
Rs 415 crore by FY17 (CAGR of 17%). Going forward, newly commissioned
capacities for caffeine manufacturing dedicated to meet the demand for cola /
energy drinks manufacturers are expected to bring in incremental revenues. Since
major fixed costs are already built‐in, incremental volumes will result in a significant
increase in segmental profits. We expect the EBIT margin to expand by 300 bps to
15% by FY17 over the next two years due to complete absorption of fixed costs.
Sales growth of Specialty Chemicals segment
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Sales EBIT Margin
%` Cr

- 7 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
 Exports to propel home and personal care revenue growth
Due to stiff competition, the home and personal care segment (contributing 6-
7% to the top line) has witnessed a fall in EBIT margins over the last 4 years
from 5.3% in FY11 to 1.5% in FY15. Of the total sales, export contribution was
a paltry 15%. However, with Aarti focusing on growing its export market, we
expect margins to recover to ~4% from the current levels. We expect the home
and personal care revenues to grow at a CAGR of 14% from Rs 206 crore in
FY15 to Rs 268 crore by FY17.
Sales growth of Pharmaceuticals segment
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- 8 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
 Financial Performance
The company reported muted numbers during Q2FY16. Its net sales declined by
13.8% YoY to Rs. 656.5 crores due to the fall in benzene prices. However, EBITDA
increased by 8% YoY to Rs. 131.7 crores, led by a decrease in raw material costs
(down 26.7% YoY). Operating margin also expanded by 410 bps YoY to 20.1%.
PAT increased by 20.7% YoY to Rs. 61.2 crores. Reduction in interest cost and tax
outgo and an increase in non-operating income supported PAT growth during the
quarter.
In FY15, Aarti Industries net sales stood at Rs. 2,870.7 crores, registering a growth
of 9% YoY. Its EBITDA increased by 15.4% YoY to Rs. 456.5 crores, while margins
expanded by 90 bps YoY to 15.9%. PAT grew by 26.3% YoY to Rs. 187.8 crores,
led by a decrease in depreciation by 10% YoY to Rs. 78.7 crores and a onetime
exceptional gain of Rs. 3.5 crores due to a change in the method of depreciation.
Consolidated Quarterly Financial Performance (Rs crores)
Description Q2FY16 Q2FY15 FY15 FY14
Net Sales 646.7 750.3 2824.1 2598.7
Growth (%) -13.8 8.7
Total expenditure 524.8 639.2 2414.2 2237.3
EBITDA 131.7 122.0 456.5 395.5
Margin (%) 20.4 15.3 15.5 15.1
Depreciation 22.6 19.1 78.7 87.4
EBIT (Ex. OI) 109.1 102.9 377.8 308.1
Non-Operating Income 0.5 0.3 2.0 10.4
EBIT 109.6 103.2 379.8 318.5
Margin (%) 16.9 13.8 13.4 12.3
Finance Cost 29.7 35.9 137.5 117.5
Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0
PBT 79.9 67.2 245.8 200.9
Margin (%) 12.4 9.0 8.7 7.7
Provision for Tax 18.7 16.5 58.0 52.3
Profit after Tax 61.2 50.7 187.8 148.7
Margin (%) 9.5 6.8 6.6 5.7

- 9 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
 Financial Outlook:
With capacity expansion across segments, the growth trajectory in revenues (2 Yr
CAGR of 13.5% to Rs 3,743 by FY17) should continue. Aarti has a varied product
basket and diversified client portfolio which reduces the dependency of the
company on a single product or a single client. We expect Aarti Industries’ revenues
to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 13.5% to Rs 3,743 crores by FY17E while net
consolidated profit after tax is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27% to Rs 332.3
crore over the same period. The EBITDA margins (ex OI) and PAT margins are
expected to be at 19.2% and 8.9% respectively.
The merger of associate entities with Aarti will lead to cancellation of 2.64 crore
shares resulting in Aarti’s net shareholding falling to 41.66 crore from 44.3 crore.
This will further enable improvement in RoE and RoCE of the company.
Consolidated Revenue, Gross and PAT margins
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` Cr
RoCE and RoE set to improve
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- 10 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
 Valuation
We initiate coverage on Aarti Industries Ltd as a BUY with a price objective of Rs
678 representing a potential upside of 31% from the CMP of Rs 518 over a period
of 15 months. We have used the PE multiple approach to value Aarti Industries and
assigned a multiple of 17x on FY17 EPS of Rs 39.9 to arrive at the target price. We
are upbeat on the company prospects due to:
 Capacity expansion which will drive volume growth,
 Diversified product portfolio significantly reducing risk and
 Merger of associate entities which will reduce the total share capital thereby
improving the return ratios.
 Significant value unlocking from demerger of its business unit
Aarti is looking to demerge all its segments viz Specialty Chemicals,
Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care into three independent entities. The
board has already approved the demerger and the process is expected to
start in early FY17 and expected to be completed by end of FY17. This
should lead to substantial value unlocking as we believe that the specialty
chemical segment should demand high valuations independently. However,
we have not built this into the valuation model and remains an upside risk to
our estimates.
AIL P/E Trend
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CMP 4X 8X 13X 17X 21X
AIL EV/EBITDA Trend
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EV 3.5X 5.5X 7.5X 9.5X 11.5X

- 11 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
Financials and Projections
Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs)
Net Sales 2632.5 2908.0 3268.9 3742.9 Adj. EPS 18.3 23.2 32.2 39.9
% Chg. 10.5 12.4 14.5 Cash EPS 28.3 32.5 46.9 56.7
Total Expenditure 2231.0 2442.3 2667.4 3026.2 DPS 4.7 5.9 7.1 8.8
% Chg. 9.5 9.2 13.4 Book Value 98.3 114.7 145.6 175.2
EBDITA 401.5 465.7 601.5 716.8 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio
EBDITA Margin % 15.3 16.0 18.4 19.2 Debt / Equity (x) 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9
Other Income 11.0 5.5 5.6 6.4 Current Ratio (x) 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5
PBDIT 412.4 471.2 607.1 723.2 ROE (%) 17.0 17.5 19.9 20.9
Depreciation 88.5 82.0 122.7 139.9 ROCE (%) 17.5 19.1 21.0 21.8
Interest 117.8 138.0 135.6 147.7 Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Valuation Ratio (x)
PBT 206.1 251.3 348.8 435.6 P/E 28.3 22.3 16.1 13.0
Tax Provisions 54.0 61.0 94.2 117.6 P/BV 5.3 4.5 3.6 3.0
Reported PAT 152.1 190.2 254.6 318.0 EV/Sales 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.5
Minority Interest -0.5 -1.7 -1.0 -1.0 EV/EBIDTA 14.0 12.4 9.2 7.8
PAT 151.6 188.5 253.6 317.0 Efficiency Ratio (x)
PAT Margin (%) 5.8 6.5 7.8 8.5 Inventory (days) 85.0 87.1 90.0 90.0
Other opr Exp / Sales (%) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 Debtors (days) 57.2 52.5 60.0 65.0
Tax Rate (%) 26.2 24.3 27.0 27.0 Creditors (days) 47.4 46.5 40.0 40.0
Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement
Share Capital 44.3 44.3 41.7 41.7 Profit Before Tax 206.1 251.3 348.8 435.6
Reserves & Surplus 826.5 972.1 1171.3 1418.0 Depreciation 88.5 82.0 122.7 139.9
Minority Interest 4.3 5.9 6.9 7.9 Working Capital Changes -34.0 -68.8 -174.3 -180.7
Long Term Borrowings 255.3 419.1 476.2 565.2 Others 54.4 75.1 41.5 30.1
Deferred Tax Liability 84.7 102.7 141.3 176.4 Operating Cash Flow 315.0 339.5 338.6 424.9
Other Non Current Liabilities 267.9 306.0 348.8 414.1 Capital Expenditure -290.9 -303.1 -222.3 -289.9
Total Liabilities 1482.8 1850.0 2186.1 2623.3 Other Investment Activities 0.0 5.4 0.0 0.0
Gross Block 1477.0 1685.1 1907.4 2197.3 Cash Flow from Investing -290.8 -297.7 -222.3 -289.9
Less: Acc. Depreciation 650.8 718.2 840.8 980.7 Changes in Share Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Block 826.2 966.9 1066.6 1216.6 Changes in Borrowings 138.0 201.8 58.0 89.0
Capital Work in Progress 117.4 193.0 171.7 191.7 Dividend and Interest -159.7 -224.8 -194.7 -220.8
Other Non Current Assets 117.2 139.2 128.8 128.8 Cash Flow from Financing -21.7 -23.0 -136.7 -131.8
Net Current Assets 37.5 109.9 332.5 529.0 Net Change in Cash 2.4 18.9 -20.4 3.2
Long term Loans & Advances 384.4 441.1 486.5 557.3 Opening Cash Balance 12.4 14.9 33.7 13.3
Total Assets 1482.8 1850.0 2186.1 2623.3 Closing Cash Balance 14.9 33.7 13.3 16.5

- 12 - Tuesday, 29
th
December, 2015
Disclosures and Disclaimer
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