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Ipsos MORI Event - Trust: the Truth?

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Given the global elite’s self-flagellation every year over declining trust in business and society, we have now reviewed all the global long-term trends on the subject from the 1960’s onwards, to look at the extent to which the media’s obsession with declining trust is actually valid, and how much it matters.

We find that trust in experts and science is actually rising in many countries, that “trust” on its own is pretty nebulous - heavily driven by things leaders cannot directly affect, and that it is most meaningful to look at “trust to do what” – in short, there is a problem, but it is not a new crisis, nor is it particularly acute.

Our panel:
Kelly Beaver – Managing Director, Social Research Institute, Ipsos MORI
Ben Page - Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
Kenneth Cukier – Senior Editor, Economist
Alex Edmans – Professor of Finance, London Business School
Mark Easton – BBC Home Editor

Published in: News & Politics
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Ipsos MORI Event - Trust: the Truth?

  1. 1. 1Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 1 TRUST: THE TRUTH? THINKS.IPSOS-MORI.COM/TRUST-THE-TRUTH #IPSOSMORILIVE
  2. 2. 2Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 2 THE DECLINE OF TRUST …
  3. 3. 3Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 3 THE DECLINE OF TRUST …
  4. 4. 4Project Name | Month Year | Classification FIND IT HARD TO KNOW WHO OR WHAT TO TRUST DUE TO CONTRADICTORY INFORMATION 81% Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, July 2019
  5. 5. 5Project Name | Month Year | Classification 60% SAY “BRANDS I TRUST ARE MORE IMPORTANT TO ME THAN EVER” Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, July 2019
  6. 6. 6Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 6 crisis of trust. Some There is no single, global countries are showing rising levels of social 1. trust in other people including Britain
  7. 7. 7Project Name | Month Year | Classification % most people can be trusted (World Values Survey); % People can usually/almost always be trusted (British Social Attitudes;% 7-10 Most people can be trusted (European Social Survey) IN SEVERAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, TRUST IS STABLE OR EVEN RISING … Spain Sweden Britain Netherlands Germany France 52% 60% 47% 54% 42% 52% 33% 45% 29% 19% 17% 18% 1981 2017
  8. 8. 8Project Name | Month Year | Classification % most people can be trusted (World Values Survey); % Most people can be trusted (Latinobarometer) AND THERE IS NO CONSISTENT PATTERN OF A NEW “CRISIS” AROUND THE REST OF THE WORLD EITHER Brazil China Australia South Africa Russia 59% 60% 34% 17% 46% 51% 26% 23% 11% 4% 35% 1981 2018 28% India
  9. 9. 9Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 9 trust in many key It is true that 2. around the world institutions is low
  10. 10. 10Project Name | Month Year | Classification FEW HIGH SCORES IN IPSOS TRUSTWORTHINESS MONITOR Tech companies Public services The media Oil and gas companies Government 4% 4% 5% 5% 7% 5% 5% 10% 10% 14% 13% 15% 19% 20% 21% 29% 27% 35% 37% 35% 37% 44% 42% 42% 22% 24% 23% 23% 21% 19% 18% 12% 34% 21% 18% 19% 14% 9% 11% 5% Food and drink companies Banking companies Pharmaceutical Very trustworthy Very untrustworthy In general, do you think each is trustworthy or untrustworthy? Please use a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very trustworthy and 5 is very untrustworthy? Source: Ipsos Global Advisor: c.16,400 – 17,800 online interviews with adults 16-64 across 23 countries, October 2018
  11. 11. 11Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 11 new – some of But this is not the big falls 3. happened decades ago
  12. 12. 12Project Name | Month Year | Classification % trust the government in Washington always/most of the time (Pew). Generally speaking, % who say that most people can be trusted (US General Social Survey) NO RECENT DECLINE IN TRUST IN AMERICA 31% 2011 2019 Most people can be trusted (GSS) Trust in government (Pew) 32% 19% 17%
  13. 13. 13Project Name | Month Year | Classification % trust the government in Washington always/most of the time (Pew). Generally speaking, % who say that most people can be trusted (US General Social Survey) SAME DATA – DECLINE IN TRUST IS A LONGER TERM PHENOMENON … 1958 Most people can be trusted (GSS) Trust in government (Pew)2019 46% 73% 31% 17% 20111972
  14. 14. 14Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 14 scientists and The public trust other experts 4.
  15. 15. 15Project Name | Month Year | Classification Please look at this list of different types of people. In general, do you think each is trustworthy or untrustworthy in [COUNTRY]? Please use a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very trustworthy and 5 is very untrustworthy. Source: Ipsos Global Advisor. 17,793 online adults, aged 16-64, October 2018 EXPERTS MOST % Trustworthy (1-2) 60% 56% 52% 43% 38% 37% 32% 25% 24% 23% 23% 22% 21% 21% 20% 13% 12% 9% 11% 14% 13% 19% 28% 13% 29% 32% 33% 27% 33% 32% 38% 42% 41% 46% 57% 67% % Untrustworthy (4-5) TRUSTED GLOBALLY Scientists Doctors Teachers Armed Forces The Police Ordinary men/women Judges Lawyers Television news readers Pollsters Civil Servants Business Leaders Journalists Clergy/Priests Bankers Advertising executives Government ministers Politicians generally
  16. 16. 16Project Name | Month Year | Classification % trust to tell the truth: Source: Ipsos MORI Veracity Index KEY MOVERS IN PUBLIC TRUST OVER TIME IN BRITAIN 1983 2018 Doctors Teachers Professors Scientists The police Clergy/priests Civil servants Trade union officials Bankers Journalists 92% 89% 86% 85% 26% 41% 45% 62% 62% 76% 85% 82% 79% 18% 19% 25% 61% 70% 63% 29%
  17. 17. 17Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 17 is not in decline Trust in business 5.
  18. 18. 18Project Name | Month Year | Classification Confidence in major companies – A great deal / quite a lot. Source: World Values Survey CONFIDENCE IN BUSINESS VARIES AROUND THE WORLD 1981-84 China 2010-14 33% 25% 1989-93 1994-98 1999-04 2005-09 Japan India US Germany 53% 43% 44% 59% 49% 31% 24% 34%
  19. 19. 19Project Name | Month Year | Classification AGREE Base: 129 Reputation Council members interviewed June-Nov. 2018 … in emerging markets the trust in companies is much greater, because sometimes the government doesn’t exist locally… so the only one who can actually make a change is the company. Ipsos Reputation Council Member TRUST IN COMPANIES AT ALL TIME LOW? DISAGREE 59% 37%
  20. 20. 20Project Name | Month Year | Classification Source: Gallup – Confidence in Big Business Poll. https://news.gallup.com/poll/5248/big-business.aspx Great deal/quite a lot of confidence in … SMALL BUSINESS TRUSTED IN US – NO COLLAPSE IN TRUST IN BIG BUSINESS EITHER 1973 Small 2019 23% 68% business Big business 63% 26%
  21. 21. 21Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 21 Why are elite at 6. Davos so anxious?
  22. 22. 22Project Name | Month Year | Classification 78% 76% 75% 75% 75% 73% 73% 73% 72% 72% 71% 69% 68% 67% 67% 66% 65% 65% 64% 64% 61% 60% 60% 57% 50% 49% 48% 6% 9% 7% 9% 5% 8% 13% 6% 11% 8% 11% 6% 11% 10% 11% 9% 10% 9% 11% 10% 12% 14% 16% 14% 25% 20% 9% “Traditional parties & politicians don’t care about people like me” Source: Ipsos Global Advisor 20,000 online adults, aged 16-64 in 26 countries. Feb – March 2018 GLOBAL DISCONTENT Disagree Agree WITH THE ELITES South Africa Mexico Spain Peru France Hungary Chile Argentina Russia Brazil Poland Great Britain India World US Italy South Korea Belgium Serbia Australia Canada Germany Turkey Malaysia Sweden Israel Japan
  23. 23. 23Project Name | Month Year | Classification How much do you trust British governments of any party to place the needs of the nation above the interests of their own political party (%almost always/most of the time, British Social Attitudes Survey); Which of these statements best describes your opinion on the current system of governing Britain? (% needs a great deal of improvement, Hansard Society Audit of Political Engagement) GROWING DISCONTENT OVER LONG TERM WITH GOVERNMENT IN THE UK, ADDED TO BY BREXIT PARALYSIS 1986 2019 22% 37% 18% 38% “System of government needs a great deal of improvement” “Trust in government to put needs of nation first”
  24. 24. 24Project Name | Month Year | Classification How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENTS HOWEVER 1976 2010 Thatcher 1990 1997 2007 2016 Government Major Government Blair Government Brown Government Cameron Government May Government Linear trend line NETSATISFACTION
  25. 25. 25Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 25 Trust in the 7. internet has fallen
  26. 26. 26Project Name | Month Year | Classification For each of the following media and institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it? Source: Eurobarometer, 29 country average TRUST IN THE WRITTEN PRESS VS TRUST IN INTERNET IN EUROPE 2006 2018 +5% +7% The written press The internet +3% -13% 0% 2012
  27. 27. 28Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 28 especially in the US, Growing polarisation - 8. but also elsewhere. But how unhealthy is it?
  28. 28. 29Project Name | Month Year | Classification Source: Pew Research Centre THERE ARE SIGNS OF GROWING POLARISATION IN THE US Democrats with a very unfavourable view of the Republican Party 1994 2017 16% 44% Republicans with a very unfavourable view of the Democrat Party 1994 2017 17% 45%
  29. 29. 30Project Name | Month Year | Classification Source: Reuters/Ipsos US June 2017 AND PARTISAN-MOTIVATED REASONING IS POWERFUL % who support the repeal of the “1975 Public Affairs Act” when repeal is endorsed by … 12 12 18 28 32 39 27 23 17 10 Trump Republicans “People” “Democrats” “Clinton” Republican Democrat
  30. 30. 31Project Name | Month Year | Classification Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way xxx is doing his/her job as Prime Minister/leader of the Labour/Conservative party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor IS POLARISATION GROWING IN THE UK? 34% 25% 32% 30% 46% 38% 46% 38% -25% -34% -44% -39% -39% -45% -50% -57% NETSATISFACTION Blair – Duncan- Smith Blair – Hague Blair – Howard Blair – Cameron Brown – Cameron Cameron – Miliband Cameron – Corbyn May – Corbyn Opposition party supporters Own party supporters
  31. 31. 32Project Name | Month Year | Classification NOT EVERYONE THINKS DIVISIONS ARE DANGEROUS … 29% 32% 5% 16% 31% 33% Agree Disagree % the differences in people’s political views are so divisive it is dangerous for our society % there are differences in people’s political views but this is healthy for society % there are no differences in people’s political views % there are differences in people’s political views but this doesn’t have a significant impact on society Which of the following statements come closest to your opinion about the range of political views in your country? Source: BBC Crossing Divides/Ipsos Global Advisor 19,782 online adults, 16-64 in 27 countries. Nov – Dec 2018
  32. 32. 33Project Name | Month Year | Classification 29% 32% 5% 16% 31% 33% Agree Disagree Source: BBC Crossing Divides/Ipsos Global Advisor 19,782 online adults, 16-64 in 27 countries. Nov – Dec 2018 Agree you agree or disagree with the following? They genuinely don’t care about the future of the country Disagree OR THAT THEIR OPPONENTS DON’T CARE Now thinking about the people in your country with opposing political views to you, to what extent do
  33. 33. 34Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 34 key issue for the Trust is a 9. digital economy But always has been!
  34. 34. 35Project Name | Month Year | Classification TRUST IN THE USE OF PERSONAL DATA IS LOW – AS ALWAYS EU citizens who are concerned about the collection of personal data 1991 2018 66% 68% EU citizens who are concerned about the misuse of personal data 2010 2015 70% 69% Source: Eurobarometer
  35. 35. 36Project Name | Month Year | Classification WORLDWIDE SAY IF A PRODUCT OR SERVICE GETS A LOT OF GOOD REVIEWS, THEY WILL TRY IT (THOUGH THIS IS DOWN FROM 76% IN 2016). BUT PEOPLE ARE SUSPICIOUS OF PERFECT SCORES 69% 4.4 OUT OF FIVE IS THE IDEAL RATING
  36. 36. 37Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 37 So what do we do? 10. Be much more systematic in understanding when “trust” matters and what drives it
  37. 37. 38Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 38 THE DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS OF TRUST … THE TRUSTER ABLE TO TRUST Is vulnerable Is optimistic Has the propensity to trust TRUSTS ACT OF TRUST Rational Emotional THE TRUSTEE HOW TO BE TRUSTWORTHY Be competent … Be reliable Have their best interests at heart (benevolence) Have a history of good behaviour (integrity) Have shared values TO DO WHAT? TRUST IS CONTEXTUAL … at a particular thing
  38. 38. 39Project Name | Month Year | Classification WE TESTED EIGHT DRIVERS ALL are statistically significant correlants of “trustworthiness” Is it reliable/ keeps its promises? Is it good at what it does? Does it behave responsibly? Is it open and transparent about what it does? Is it well led? Does it do what it does with the best of intentions? Does it share my values? Would it try to take advantage of me if it could? OF TRUSTWORTHINESS OF INSTITUTIONS
  39. 39. 40Project Name | Month Year | Classification 18% 20% 25% 25% 37% THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF THE TECH AND OIL SECTORS Technology companies Food & drink companies Pharmaceutical companies Banking companies Oil & Gas companies % Trustworthy Rated top on all 8 statements Rated bottom on 7 of 8 statements Base: Ipsos Global Advisor. c16,400 – 17,800 online adults aged 16-64 in 23 countries, October 2018
  40. 40. 41Project Name | Month Year | Classification Public Services Banks Agree DisagreeWHAT IS IMPORTANT 35% 21% 41% 27% 25% 30% 23% 33% 21% 30% 38% 28% Public Services Banks Public Services Banks IT IS WELL LED IT DOES WHAT IT DOES WITH THE BEST OF INTENTIONS IT IS GOOD AT WHAT IT DOES FOR ONE SECTOR MAY NOT BE IMPORTANT FOR ANOTHER Base: Ipsos Global Advisor. c16,400 – 17,800 online adults aged 16-64 in 23 countries, October 2018
  41. 41. 42Project Name | Month Year | Classification TRUST IS A PROBLEM, BUT IT’S CHRONIC NOT ACUTE IT’S COMPLICATED. DEPENDENT ON SECTOR, COUNTRY ETC THE WORLD IS NOT GOING TO ‘HELL IN A HANDCART’ IN CONCLUSION 1 2 3
  42. 42. 43Project Name | Month Year | ClassificationIpsos MORI Issues Index | Public 43 THANK YOU

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