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2019 Reuters Tracking - Core Political 05 01 2019

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2019 Reuters Tracking - Core Political 05 01 2019

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2019 Reuters Tracking - Core Political 05 01 2019

  1. 1. © 2019 Ipsos 1 Core Political Data MAY 1, 2019 Ipsos Poll Conducted for Thomson Reuters © 2019 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
  2. 2. © 2019 Ipsos 2 For the survey, a sample of 1,004 Americans including 345 Democrats 352 Republicans 214 Independents 18+ ages w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for date April 29-30, 2019 Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
  3. 3. © 2019 Ipsos 3 Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix. 3.5 All Adults 6.0 Democrats 6.0 Republicans 7.6 Independents
  4. 4. © 2019 Ipsos 4 • The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by: – Gender – Age – Education – Ethnicity – Region • Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. • All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. • Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. • Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. • To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit: http://polling.reuters.com/ Core Political Data IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
  5. 5. © 2019 Ipsos 5 Right Direction/Wrong Track ALL ADULT AMERICANS 32% 56% 12% Right Direction Wrong Track Don’t know All Adults 14% 79% 7% 62% 24% 14% 24% 63% 13% Democrats Republicans Independents Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
  6. 6. © 2019 Ipsos 6 Most Important Problem Facing America ALL ADULT AMERICANS All Adults Democrat Republican Independent Economy generally 14% 12% 16% 17% Unemployment / lack of jobs 2% 2% 1% 4% War / foreign conflicts 2% 4% 0% 3% Immigration 19% 7% 36% 14% Terrorism / terrorist attacks 10% 11% 12% 6% Healthcare 19% 28% 9% 22% Energy issues 1% 1% 0% 1% Morality 6% 6% 6% 7% Education 5% 6% 3% 5% Crime 3% 2% 4% 2% Environment 7% 8% 4% 10% Don’t know 10% 12% 8% 9% Other 2% 1% 0% 1% In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
  7. 7. © 2019 Ipsos 7 Most Important Problem Facing America ALL ADULT AMERICANS In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today? 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Economy Generally Unemployment / jobs Healthcare Terrorism Immigration
  8. 8. © 2019 Ipsos 8 DONALD TRUMP ALL ADULT AMERICANS Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”) All Adults Democrat Republican Independent Strongly approve 20% 5% 45% 14% Somewhat approve 16% 7% 29% 16% Lean towards approve 3% 0% 5% 3% Lean towards disapprove 1% 2% 0% 2% Somewhat disapprove 12% 11% 10% 20% Strongly disapprove 43% 74% 7% 38% Not sure 5% 2% 4% 7% TOTAL APPROVE 39% 11% 79% 33% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 56% 87% 17% 60%
  9. 9. © 2019 Ipsos 9 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan20-24,2017 Feb3-7,2017 Feb17-21,2017 March3-7,2017 March17-21,2017 March31-April4,2017 April21-25,2017 May5-9,2017 May19-23,2017 June2-6,2017 June16-20,2017 June30-July4,2017 July14-18,2017 July28-Aug1,2017 Aug11-15,2017 Aug25-29,2017 Sept8-12,2017 Sept22-26,2017 Oct6-10,2017 Oct20-24,2017 Nov3-7,2017 Nov17-21,2017 Dec1-5,2017 Dec15-19,2017 Dec29,2017-Jan2,2018 Jan12-16,2018 Jan26-30,2018 Feb9-13,2018 February23-27,2018 March9-13,2018 March23-27,2018 April6-10,2018 April20-24,2018 May4-8,2018 May18-22,2018 June1-5,2018 June15-19,2018 June28-July2,2018 July13-17,2018 July27-31,2018 August8-14,2018 August22-28,2018 Sept5-11,2018 Sept19-25,2018 October3-9,2018 October17-23,2018 November7-13,2018 November21-27,2018 December5-11,2018 December19-25,2018 January2-8,2019 January16-22,2019 Jan30-Feb5,2019 February20-26,2019 March6-12,2019 March20-26,2019 April5-9,2019 April17-23,2019 39% 56% Weekly Approval ALL ADULT AMERICANS Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
  10. 10. © 2019 Ipsos 10 Political Party Approach ALL ADULT AMERICANS In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? Democratic Party Republican Party Independents Other None Don’t know Healthcare 38% 28% 6% 1% 13% 15% The war on terror 22% 37% 4% 2% 16% 19% Iran 25% 28% 4% 2% 15% 26% The U.S. economy 28% 37% 6% 2% 11% 17% Immigration 35% 33% 3% 2% 12% 13% Social Security 33% 24% 6% 3% 16% 17% Medicare 36% 24% 5% 1% 15% 19% Taxes 29% 35% 6% 1% 13% 16% Gay marriage 41% 17% 5% 2% 14% 21% Jobs and employment 30% 38% 5% 2% 9% 16% The federal government deficit 26% 26% 6% 2% 22% 18% Supporting small businesses 28% 32% 7% 1% 11% 21% Education 35% 25% 6% 2% 13% 19% Foreign policy 30% 31% 4% 3% 10% 21% Women’s rights 42% 19% 7% 2% 11% 18% The environment 41% 19% 10% 3% 11% 15% Israel 18% 32% 4% 2% 16% 28% Syria 20% 27% 3% 2% 17% 32% Energy policy 34% 25% 7% 2% 11% 22% Dealing with sexual harassment 33% 18% 5% 3% 19% 23%
  11. 11. © 2019 Ipsos 11 Political Identity 14% 14% 10% 9% 11% 12% 20% 3% 6% 28% 23% 38% 33% 20% 6% Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent Other DK Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Independent None/DK Party ID Party ID w/ Lean ALL ADULT AMERICANS With which political party do you most identify?
  12. 12. © 2019 Ipsos 12 How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals APPENDIX The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters. Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:
  13. 13. © 2019 Ipsos 13 FOR THIS POLL The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2 Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below: How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals APPENDIX SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS 2,000 2.5 1,500 2.9 1,000 3.5 750 4.1 500 5.0 350 6.0 200 7.9 100 11.2 1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200. Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100.
  14. 14. © 2019 Ipsos 14 ABOUT IPSOS Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people and has the ability to conduct research programs in more than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research professionals. They have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning – Media and advertising research; Marketing research; Client and employee relationship management; Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online, Offline data collection and delivery. Ipsos is listed on Eurolist – NYSE – Euronext. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com GAME CHANGERS At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets, brands and society. We deliver information and analysis that makes our complex world easier and faster to navigate and inspires our clients to make smarter decisions. We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity, speed and substance applies to everything we do. Through specialisation, we offer our clients a unique depth of knowledge and expertise. Learning from different experiences gives us perspective and inspires us to boldly call things into question, to be creative. By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we attract the highest calibre of people who have the ability and desire to influence and shape the future. “GAME CHANGERS” – our tagline – summarises our ambition.

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