This document summarizes a workshop on computing for cyber-physical systems in 2025. It discusses that new sciences like quantum computing will take 15-20 years to become technologies and capabilities that can be included in mainstream products. Consumer needs, rather than professional needs, will drive the technologies. Systems focus on both physical and virtual components from various domains like silicon, software, optics, and manufacturing will be important. Commercial technologies emerging from consumer products must be utilized for professional applications, rather than paying high costs for special technologies.

1. ©ARM 2016
Workshop: Computing for
Cyber-Physical Systems in 2025
Ian Phillips
EC/HiPEAC. @ Rue d’Egmont, Brussels
Principal Staff Engineer
ARM Ltd, Cambridge, UK
ian.phillips@arm.com
27apr16
Visiting Prof. at ...
NMI Contribution to
Industry Award
Opinions expressed are my own ...
Pdf andVideo at http://ianp24.blogspot.com
1v1

2. ©ARM 20162
§ Science - Demonstrated Fundamentals; Predictable, Encapsulated, New
§ Technology - Scaled-up Science(s). Reliable and productive enough
for use in a real Product or its Processes. May be New-to-All,
or only New-to-You (others may have it as a Capability)
§ Capability - Installed Tech'ogy(s)
In-place in business, ready for
mission-critical use in a New
Product Development.Tangible or
Virtual (In the BoM or not)
§ Product - Delivered Functionality.
Commercially viable, Cost-effective,
Functional, Quality (Science/Technology is just a means-to-this-end)
§ It can take manyYears (>10) for Science to be included in an End-Product
§ It typically takes 2-3yrs for a New Capability to be a part of a Commercial Product
... Only establishedTechnology today can make it into End-Product by 2025
The Pathway from Science to Exploitation
Science
Science
Science
Science
Science
Science
Science
WORK(?)
Technology
Technology
Technology
WORK(?)
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Concept
EXPOLITKnow-How
PredictableWORK
Enquire, understand & establish (Research)
Exploitknowledge(Development)
TRL 1-4
TRL 9
TRL 8-9
TRL 5-9
Technology
Readiness
Levels
is in Capability ProductTechnology is in is inScience

3. ©ARM 20163
Computing ≠ Computing
§ Computing: is solving single Equation (frequently for for multiple data!)
§ This includes Weather prediction, Image compressors, Encryption, Signal processing ...
§ But also SoC devices, Analogue electronics, Optics and Mechanical
§ General Purpose Computing: is solving an arbitrary sequence of equations,
where both are determined by state and stored-program.
§ This includes CPU, GPU, DSP and FPGA (digital) architectures ... others are possible.
§ The (Commercial) success of CyberPhysical Systems (Today and in 2025) depends
on an optimal mix of Computation technologies ...
§ CPS Design is a System-Level Architectural challenge for Engineers
§ The Market Interest is dominated non-functional criteria ... Functionality is assumed!
(Cost, Power,TTM, Density, Productivity, Reliability, Style, etc.)
§ Professional Needs do not lead the Market any more ...The Consumer Needs do!
...There will not be a single 'most important style' of computing (also the case today!)
...The Capabilities you haven't got that your competitors have, limits business success.

4. ©ARM 20164
... Professional Markets still exist but don't drive (dominant)Technologies any more!
The Business Opportunities that Drive Technology
Mobile Internet and IoT lead business opportunity for 2025
Mobile Internet
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Main Frame
Mini Computer
Personal Computer
Desktop Internet
Millionsof
Units
1st Era
Select work-tasks
2nd Era
Broad-based computing
for specific tasks
3rd Era
Computing as part
of our lives
World Population
>10 Computers/Person
Technology
for Science
Technology
for Pleasure
ProfessionalçèConsumer

5. ©ARM 20165
2025Volume Markets Need Physical Technologies ...
§ Mixed Si-Based Integration Technologies
§ RF, Analogue, Digital, Mixed-Signal, Mixed-Geometries, Memory and NVM
§ (Graphene, Quantum etc technologies will all use Active Si substrate beneath)
§ High-Density Packaging/Assembly
§ 3D, Die-Stacking, Automated Assembly, Automated Repair.
§ HighVolume, Low Cost Components
§ Possibly with relatively short lifetime
§ Sensors, Actuators and Displays
§ Digital MOS is just an Important Part of a System ... But not the Most Important Part!
§ Self Powering/Energy Efficiency
§ Including Energy Scavenging and Fit&Forget battery
... Computing Architectures in various forms Complement all of these!
Listed on the BoM

6. ©ARM 20166
2025Volume Markets NeedVirtual Technologies ...
§ System-Level Productivity
§ Platforms, Reuse, Methods, Standards
§ Use of External Expertise in the Life-Cycle (Virtual Components and IP) – eg: ARM
§ Modeling is inseparable from CPS product ...
§ The modeling of what is Intended (Design)
§ The Optimization of the HW and SW Platforms (Design)
§ The Optimization of Non-Functional constraints (Design)
§ The Model of Reality (Function & UI) Executing on the Product Hardware!! (Production).
§ Manufacture and Test is inseparable from CPS product ...
§ The System Product, has to be made economically and work
§ System-Level Robustness and Reliability
§ Not just at Component-Level
... Computing and Computer Architectures underlie all of these!
Not-Listed on BoM (But a Real-Cost in the System)

7. ©ARM 20167
So what of New Sciences?
§ Quantum Computing, Spintronics, Graphene Electronics, Plastic Electronics,
DNA Computing, Nano-machines (Beyond Accelerometers) (Fusion Power) ...
§ All are Sciences today. All demonstrated and all offer potential; but there are many
uncertainties before they can be deployed in mainstream Business-Critical Products.
§ They have a long road to tread before they become Technologies (At least 10yrs) and more
time before Capabilities ... I would say at least 15-20yrs away.
§ Neural Networks, Machine Learning, Convolutional Networks, Genetic
Computing, Plastic Electronics, Cross-point memories, 3D Integrated Cts ...
§ These are Sciences, but may be close-to Technologies; but all have a road to tread before
they are regular Capabilities
§ It is possible some may be in mainstream Systems around 2025

8. ©ARM 20168
Conclusions
§ Focus on Systems, not Components
§ Utilizing Physical andVirtual Components (Si, SW, Optics, RF,Audio, Manufacturing, etc)
§ Consumer Needs will drive Technologies (not Professional Needs)
§ European Economic Development will become the EU prime concern ...
§ Not the same as Professional Market Challenge!
§ Life-Cycle Business Contribution/Opportunity ... not just Si-Factory
§ Professional Applications must achieve their performance needs by use of
Technologies emerging from Consumer products ...
§ The alternative is paying the FEC for special technology (>>> Expense!)
§ Overcoming limitations of Commercial Technologies will become the major design challenge
to development of Professional Products (eg: Robustness and Reliability).