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Diagnosing Complex Problems
using System Archetypes
Chua Kim Koon, Aaron
#ISSLearningFest
#ISSLearningFest
Challenges and Problems
Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/blistering-british-heatwave-at-least-10-times-more-likely-due-to-climate-
change-study
Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south-asia/worlds-rice-supply-faces-new-threat-from-lack-of-rain-in-india
#ISSLearningFest
Challenges and Problems
#ISSLearningFest
Challenges and Problems
Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/hdb-resale-prices-rise-for-24th-straight-month-in-june-ground-floor-yishun-flat-sold-for-1m Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/fare-surge-booking-difficulty-phc-taxi-higher-demand-fewer-drivers-
iswaran-2851876
Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous
#ISSLearningFest
Complex
Probe
Sense
Respond
Emergent Practices
Complicated
Sense
Analyse
Respond
Good Practices
Chaotic
Act
Sense
Respond
Novel Practices
Clear
Sense
Categorise
Respond
Best Practices
Cynefin Framework
A framework that
help us to sort issues
that we faced into
five contexts defined
by the nature of the
relationship between
cause and effect
DISORDER
Ordered
Known
Knowns
Known
Unknowns
Unknown
Unknowns
Unknowables
Unordered
Complex Context
#ISSLearningFest
Complex
Probe
Sense
Respond
Emergent Practices
Unknown
Root Cause
Unknown
Solution
• Requires experimentation
• Need to explore to even
ask the right question
No guarantee
solution will work
Complex Context
#ISSLearningFest
Complex
Probe
Sense
Respond
Emergent Practices
Unknown
Root Cause
Unknown
Solution
System
Archetypes
No guarantee
solution will work
System Archetypes
#ISSLearningFest
• Common sub-system patterns (systemic issues) of side-effects and
actions/reactions found within complex systems
• List of Archetypes:
1. Balancing process with delay
2. Fixes that Fail
3. Accidental Adversaries
4. Limits to Growth
5. Attractiveness Principle
6. Success to the Successful
7. Tragedy of the Commons
8. Drifting Goals
9. Escalation
10. Shifting the Burden
#ISSLearningFest
Queensland, Australia in 1930s
Sugarcane
crops
Cane
Beetles!!!!!!
#ISSLearningFest
Beetle’s larvae eating the roots of sugar cane
and killing the plants
Save our crops!
#ISSLearningFest
In 1935, 102 Cane Toads imported from Hawaii
#ISSLearningFest
Did the cane toads accomplished their
mission?
#ISSLearningFest
Sort of AND ……
Sorry. I cannot
jump very
high.
#ISSLearningFest
Sort of AND ……
Just to let you
know, I eat
anything that
can fit into
my mouth.
Adult cane toads can
grow up 25 centimeters
#ISSLearningFest
Sort of AND ……
Eat me at your
own risk
#ISSLearningFest
Cane toads became the very pests that they
were supposed to destroy.
• No natural
predators
• Breed any
time of the
year
Northern
Territory
Western
Australia
#ISSLearningFest
Today, more than 200 millions Cane Toads.
Northern
Territory
Western
Australia
S
O
Fixes that Fail
#ISSLearningFest
This archetype describe a situation where a fix is effective in the short-
term but creates side effects for the long-term and may results in the
need for even more fixes.
Causal Loop Diagram
Variable A Variable B
B
• Map out action
and reaction
• Study and
understand
complex scenarios
S
Fixes that Fail
#ISSLearningFest
Problem
Symptom
Fix
Unintended
Consequence
B1
R1
Delay
S
S O
S
This archetype describe a situation where a fix is effective in the short-
term but creates side effects for the long-term and may results in the
need for even more fixes.
Solve the real
problem
Acknowledge the fix
is merely alleviating
a symptom
Project Delay – Fixes that Fail
#ISSLearningFest
Project
Delay
Sick
Leave
S
S
Delay
Overtime
O
S
A man came home from work
after a hot day outside.
#ISSLearningFest
36°C
House
temperature
34°C
Feeling very warm, he switched
on the aircon and set it to 22°C.
#ISSLearningFest
22°C
36°C
House
temperature
34°C
He decided to go out for a jog
as dinner was not ready.
#ISSLearningFest
36°C
22°C
House
temperature
34°C
A few minutes later, the man’s
wife came home.
#ISSLearningFest
36°C
22°C
House
temperature
33.9°C
Feeling warm too, she set the
air-con temperature to 19°C.
#ISSLearningFest
36°C
19°C
House
temperature
33.9°C
Then she went to the kitchen
to prepare dinner.
#ISSLearningFest
36°C
19°C
House
temperature
33.9°C
The man came home from his run and
was greeted with a freezing house.
#ISSLearningFest
36°C
19°C
House
temperature
19°C
Kitchen
temperature
25°C
Balancing Process with Delay
#ISSLearningFest
This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed.
Balancing Process with Delay
#ISSLearningFest
GAP
Corrective
Action
Actual B
S
O
S
Delay
Desired Level S
This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed.
The bigger the gap,
the more corrective
action taken
The more
corrective action
taken, the closer we
get to the actual state
The closer the actual
state, the lesser
the gap
Balancing Process with Delay
#ISSLearningFest
Corrective
Action
Actual B
S
O
S
Delay
S
This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed.
GAP
Desired Level More aggressive
corrective action
Balancing Process with Delay
#ISSLearningFest
Corrective
Action
Actual B
S
O
S
Delay
S
This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed.
-ve
GAP
Desired Level
Balancing Process with Delay
#ISSLearningFest
Corrective
Action
Actual B
S
O
S
Delay
S
This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed.
Desired Level
Be patient
GAP
Balancing Process with Delay
#ISSLearningFest
Corrective
Action
Actual B
S
O
S
Delay
S
This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed.
Desired Level
Improve system
response
GAP
Project Delay – Balancing Process with Delay
#ISSLearningFest
Project
Delay
Sick
Leave
Hire New
Staff
S
S
Delay
Overtime
Delay
O
S
O
S
Why is there delay
in reducing the
project delay after
adding new staff?
Project Delay – Balancing Process with Delay
#ISSLearningFest
Project
Delay
Sick
Leave
Hire New
Staff
S
S
Delay
Overtime
Delay
O
S
O
S
Disruption
to current
team
Project Delay – Balancing Process with Delay
#ISSLearningFest
Project
Delay
Sick
Leave
Hire New
Staff
S
S
Delay
Overtime
Delay
O
S
O
S
Inexperience Engagement Mastery
LEARNING
TIME
Take time
to get up
to speed
Having a bad headache
and want to see a doctor
Hospital
#ISSLearningFest
Tom
Teammate recommended a
painkiller from the pharmacy.
Pharmacy
#ISSLearningFest
Tom
The painkillers worked! And from then on, you
relied on the painkillers for your headache.
Pharmacy
#ISSLearningFest
Tom
Not aware that the underlying problem was
worsening.
Pharmacy
#ISSLearningFest
Tom
Collapsed and ended up in hospital.
#ISSLearningFest
Pharmacy
Tom
Shifting the Burden
#ISSLearningFest
O
S
S
Side
Effect
B2
S
O
O
Symptomatic
Solution
Problem
Symptom
Fundamental
Solution
B1
Delay
R
This archetype captures the situation when dealing with a problem with
a temporary/short term solution, which affects the fundamental solution.
Shifting the Burden
=
Fixes that Fail
≠
Shifting the Burden
#ISSLearningFest
O
S
S
Side
Effect
B2
S
O
O
Symptomatic
Solution
Problem
Symptom
Fundamental
Solution
B1
Delay
R
This archetype captures the situation when dealing with a problem with
a temporary/short term solution, which affects the fundamental solution.
Start searching
for the root cause
Shifting the Burden
#ISSLearningFest
O
S
S
Side
Effect
B2
S
O
O
Symptomatic
Solution
Problem
Symptom
Fundamental
Solution
B1
Delay
R
This archetype captures the situation when dealing with a problem with
a temporary/short term solution, which affects the fundamental solution.
Use
symptomatic
solution only to
buy time
Shifting the Burden
#ISSLearningFest
O
S
S
Side
Effect
B2
S
O
O
Symptomatic
Solution
Problem
Symptom
Fundamental
Solution
B1
Delay
R
This archetype captures the situation when dealing with a problem with
a temporary/short term solution, which affects the fundamental solution.
Remove symptomatic
solutions that no
longer work
Project Delay – Shifting the Burden
#ISSLearningFest
Project
Delay
Sick
Leave
Hire New
Staff
S
S
Delay
Overtime
Delay
O
S
O
S
Outsource to
Company A
S
O
Reliance on
Company A
O S
Is this a good or bad strategy?
#ISSLearningFest
Drifting Goals aka Boiled Frog syndrome
#ISSLearningFest
Goal B2
O
S
Pressure to
Lower Goal
GAP
S
Corrective
Action
Actual B1
S
O
S
Delay
This archetype
describes a situation
where a gap between
the goal and current
reality can be resolved
by taking corrective
action or lowering the
goal. The latter will
eventually lead to
deterioration of long-
term goals.
Drifting Goals aka Boiled Frog syndrome
Goal B2
O
S
Pressure to
Lower Goal
GAP
S
Corrective
Action
Actual B1
S
O
S
Delay
This archetype
describes a situation
where a gap between
the goal and current
reality can be resolved
by taking corrective
action or lowering the
goal. The latter will
eventually lead to
deterioration of long-
term goals.
Huge gap
Jump out
Small gap
Slowly adapt to the gradual
increase in temperature
Perceived body
temperature
drift higher
#ISSLearningFest
Drifting Goals aka Boiled Frog syndrome
Goal B2
O
S
Pressure to
Lower Goal
GAP
S
Corrective
Action
Actual B1
S
O
S
Delay
This archetype
describes a situation
where a gap between
the goal and current
reality can be resolved
by taking corrective
action or lowering the
goal. The latter will
eventually lead to
deterioration of long-
term goals.
#ISSLearningFest
Disconnect the pressure
to lower goal
Project Delay – Drifting Goals
#ISSLearningFest
Project
Delay
Sick
Leave
Hire New
Staff
S
S
Delay
Overtime
Delay
O
S
O
S
Outsource to
Company A
S
O
Reliance on
Company A
O S
Pressure to
lower quality
Quality
Goal
S
O
Debts incurred, hurts
even more in the long run
Two project managers, Tom and Jerry.
#ISSLearningFest
Tom Jerry
Nancy
Equals resources for both project managers.
#ISSLearningFest
Tom Jerry
Nancy
More resource to Tom’s project.
#ISSLearningFest
Tom Jerry
Nancy
More resource to Tom’s project.
#ISSLearningFest
Tom Jerry
Nancy
Even more resource to Tom’s project.
#ISSLearningFest
Tom Jerry
Nancy
Even more resource to Tom’s project.
#ISSLearningFest
Tom Jerry
Nancy
Winner and Loser situation
#ISSLearningFest
Tom Jerry
Nancy
Success to the Successfully
#ISSLearningFest
This archetype describes the outcome of a situation is highly dependent on
the initial conditions and whether they favor one party or the other.
Success of A
R2
O S
Allocation to A
Instead of B
S
R1
S O
S
Resources to A
Success of B
Resources to B Balance the
distribution of
resources
Success to the Successfully
#ISSLearningFest
This archetype describes the outcome of a situation is highly dependent on
the initial conditions and whether they favor one party or the other.
Success of A
R2
O S
Allocation to A
Instead of B
S
R1
S O
S
Resources to A
Success of B
Resources to B
Competitors
Collaborators
Summary
Understanding problems in Complex Context
#ISSLearningFest
Success to
the
Successful
Fixes
that fail
Balancing
process
with delay
Shifting
the
burden
Drifting
goals
Questions?
#ISSLearningFest
#ISSLearningFest
Upcoming Class:
27 Oct 2022 (Thurs) to
28 Oct 2022 (Fri)
https://www.iss.nus.edu.sg/executive-
education/course/detail/systems--thinking-
root-cause-analysis/digital-agility
Give Us Your Feedback
#ISSLearningFest
Day 2 Programme
Thank You!
issckk@nus.edu.sg
#ISSLearningFest

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